Long Game 92: Process of Elimination

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

1 hour ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Hmmmm. This shakes things up a bit...

You seem quieter than usually, no Kaos Silho this game?

48 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I will say I don't love either of these candidates. Would definitely prefer Wizard live.

Do I dare D1 Stick?

TY my PM bro <3

32 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

So I have a theory.

Is anyone here not a Troll, other than me?

Also, if anyone is not a Troll and willing to answer this question, does your non-Troll role mention Trolling?

Sounds like someones not a World Cupper lol

I am not a troll as I previously stated and my role does mention trolling.

29 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Smh you just want Wiz alive so that he can PM you and spill World Cupper tea, being your elim intermediate agent  

My guess is that everybody with a role is trollable unless otherwise stated (like in your case allegedly). 

My role seems to confirm it. At least for me

1 minute ago, xinoehp512 said:

Oooh! Ooooh! I want a PM! *waves hand excitedly in the air*

1 hour ago, The Bookwyrm said:

And now everybody and their cat wants my PMs -.-

One per odd cycle people, only one per odd cycle.

[Channelknight Fadran]

Time for self-defense.

Uhh...

So... if I was an elim, then that'd mean I'd be being the worst elim ever to walk the universe. I'm going out of my way to confuse people and draw attention. In the event that I was an elim, all my elim buddies would be like "aaaaa noooooo shut your stupid faceeeee you dummyyyy" and pretend like they don't notice me in this thread.

Meaning I have now challenged you all to decide if you think I am truly that dumb.

[Archer he/him]

17 minutes ago, The Bookwyrm said:

Fair. I meant that he basically roleclaimed over the space of three posts rather than one.

It's weird how no one followed up on Wiz's claim, but they kept offering more details as if they had been asked. 

11 minutes ago, The Bookwyrm said:

EDIT: This is one of my performative posts, isn't it?

I'm bad at not being suspicious.

I think we've covered this in previous games, but I really dislike how easily you drop your poke votes. 

Just now, xinoehp512 said:

*Press X to doubt* Flavor-wise this doesn't vibe.

Feels like a gamble to name 5+ roles and expect us to never realize they're absent from the game. 

I'll reiterate my recommendation against mass claiming because we presumably have some power roles that would benefit from cover. 

2 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

And now everybody and their cat wants my PMs -.-

I feel the same way. My inbox is so full I still haven't gotten around to making that Tani PM. 

1 minute ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

Time for self-defense.

Actually, would you mind repeating why you're voting Walin? I had clocked them as a candidate to vote for, so its worth discussing. 

[Stick. she/her]

I will point out that Devo claimed a role similar to Aman’s in MR56 and turned out to be an over-enlightened, full-fledged serial killer. If a non-world cup person receives acknowledgement of a failed yellow card, we can discard the Referee role being a real SK, I think. 

[xinoehp512 he/him]

2 minutes ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

Time for self-defense.

Uhh...

So... if I was an elim, then that'd mean I'd be being the worst elim ever to walk the universe. I'm going out of my way to confuse people and draw attention. In the event that I was an elim, all my elim buddies would be like "aaaaa noooooo shut your stupid faceeeee you dummyyyy" and pretend like they don't notice me in this thread.

Meaning I have now challenged you all to decide if you think I am truly that dumb.

My guy, that's not very convincing ;-; Seems like exactly the thing an elim who has just made a mistake would say.

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

Time for self-defense.

Uhh...

So... if I was an elim, then that'd mean I'd be being the worst elim ever to walk the universe. I'm going out of my way to confuse people and draw attention. In the event that I was an elim, all my elim buddies would be like "aaaaa noooooo shut your stupid faceeeee you dummyyyy" and pretend like they don't notice me in this thread.

Meaning I have now challenged you all to decide if you think I am truly that dumb.

Less defendy, more attacky.

Who do you think is evil?

[Channelknight Fadran]

2 minutes ago, Archer said:

Actually, would you mind repeating why you're voting Walin? I had clocked them as a candidate to vote for, so its worth discussing. 

It's my solemn duty. I was tasked with it, and I will follow through.

Just now, xinoehp512 said:

My guy, that's not very convincing ;-; Seems like exactly the thing an elim who has just made a mistake would say.

But then you have to ask yourself if I'm stupid enough to make a mistake!

...Which I didn't.

I'm a villager.

 

Would I lie to you?

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Less defendy, more attacky.

Who do you think is evil?

I don't have any reads yet. Your claim is a little suspicious but I doubt an elim would go out and make up a whole role to claim as neutral. This might be because I'm not following everything that's going on, but I really have no idea where the Wizard train is coming from.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Hey girls!

o7

This is my wife, Saponin.

Only for you <3 For everyone else, I'm her spouse.

Nice to meet you! Saponin or Persimmon Hippocampus?

Anything is fine.

Have you made any progress in catching bots?

I don't have access to site permissions yet. Can you explain the problem?

Accounts are being hacked o.O Long-term users are being replaced. Like me and Deliquescent, but unfriendly

Where is she?

Resting :/ Don't worry, I'll share these memories with her.

Right. We'll start with a blanket password reset

But if there's an underlying security vulnerability or their emails are also hacked that won't work.

Sounds good <3

---

19 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Flavor-wise this doesn't vibe.

How much do you know about flavor More than one person's worth?

@Channelknight Fadran what sorts of interactions are you making with the game?

If Ada's role is somewhat correct, elims might kill him if he gives one of their members a yellow card.

Edited January 27, 2023 by Devotary of Spontaneity
posted early

[Araris Valerian he/him]

43 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

So I have a theory.

Is anyone here not a Troll, other than me?

Also, if anyone is not a Troll and willing to answer this question, does your non-Troll role mention Trolling?

Sounds like someones not a World Cupper lol

I already claimed; my role lets me sit on a porch and watch people get Trolled. Also, I have to say that your claim was excellently crafted to be completely unverifiable, at least the second part. You’ve created a scenario in which any theoretical World Cup players won’t want to claim, so now nobody will be surprised when there is never confirmation. Not saying that I have anything against you for the claim though.

In response to @Matrim's Dice regarding no flips and bandwagons, while it is true that close votes give more info when we have flips, it is also the case that bandwagons given more info when we have flips. In this game, if we are never going to get flips, a bandwagon is practically useless for info, whereas a close vote, by virtue of giving players agency, does give info. Multiple players can be pressured at once as well. The reason there was a LG15b was more due to villagers being afraid to move past poke voting than being unwilling to consolidate.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

The reason there was a LG15b was more due to villagers being afraid to move past poke voting than being unwilling to consolidate.

And here I thought it was because people were willing to help me murder Wyrm...  

[Mat he/him]

--I could see e!Fae defending e!Wiz a little too strongly there.

--I'm more inclined to read Bookwyrm as an elim who wants to appear like a neutral than an actual neutral, but that should come with the block of salt that is my horrific history of reading Bookwyrm correctly. But I don't see how n!Bookwyrm would know enough about Devo to feel like voting there would actually further his wincon.

--I actually think Fadran's defense has merit, mostly because I've argued it as a villager myself. I've also argued it as an elim, though :P. I think there's something to be said about his care for self pres; this might seem hypocritical for anyone who knows me but I do think that his obvious care of defending himself is in contrast to his earlier play this turn. Kinda reminds me of TJ's point where he walked back his 'no one is village!' thing. That's basically how Shining got misexed that one game though so idk.

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

In response to @Matrim's Dice regarding no flips and bandwagons, while it is true that close votes give more info when we have flips, it is also the case that bandwagons given more info when we have flips. In this game, if we are never going to get flips, a bandwagon is practically useless for info, whereas a close vote, by virtue of giving players agency, does give info. Multiple players can be pressured at once as well. The reason there was a LG15b was more due to villagers being afraid to move past poke voting than being unwilling to consolidate.

And I definitely understand that-- like I said, I'm more in between as far as that argument goes. But I sympathize with both, and so was willing to advocate the minority on the issue

Edited January 27, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[Channelknight Fadran]

5 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

 

@Channelknight Fadran what sorts of interactions are you making with the game?

 

Define "interactions"

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Also! Troll-role was elim in LG 53. I expect similar to this:

Temptation: Absolutely terrifying with Code. They get into the code and corrupt it. If they target you, your action will do exactly what you didn’t want. You will accidently ban a player instead of protect them. Or you will accidentally reveal your IP address instead of PM them. Or something. And then they will know what and who you are. 

So we can't count on roles to do what they're supposed to.

[Amanuensis he/him]

7 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I already claimed; my role lets me sit on a porch and watch people get Trolled. Also, I have to say that your claim was excellently crafted to be completely unverifiable, at least the second part. You’ve created a scenario in which any theoretical World Cup players won’t want to claim, so now nobody will be surprised when there is never confirmation. Not saying that I have anything against you for the claim though.

Kas crafted my role well, agreed there  but my Neutral philosophy is to be as transparent as possible from the get-go, even if I lose for it. Doubly so in a game where we know next to nothing

Edited January 27, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Channelknight Fadran]

........to defend myself I need to drop the bit...

................but it's a fun bit.......

[Orlok Tsubodai]

11 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

What we know:

There is a village, there are elims. There is an exe. Elims can win by hammering votes on Kas or Fifth at parity, or otherwise executing a villager and winning by outnumbering. Kas and Fifth are ONLY exeable at parity (this is a question I asked before the game began, don't try to kill for me knowing this ). 

PMs are closed, but Archer is putting on a show of apparently using them.

We don't know when parity is, but it's probably a good idea to not leave the exe unconsolidated. 

 

9 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Blackout = maybe neutrals 

+

Flipless = limited understanding of the game-state

=
Difficulty predicting elim numbers and therefore parity 

My point is that we need to be careful about leaving the exe susceptible to a hammer. Probably not C1,2 I guess but I don’t really want to make assumptions about the elim team size. This doesn’t mean we can’t have multiple wagons, or that we should all just bandwagon on one player with zero discussion, just that I personally would like it consolidated by EoD. 

And without flips, I don’t know how much information we can glean from vote movement anyway. But we do have to start somewhere though so I’m not against it and will probably be analysing that stuff myself because we need to work with what we have. 

 

8 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Unless we consolidate on an elim!! 

 

4 hours ago, |TJ| said:

hmmmm couple of points. 

after lockys post accusing stick, i scrolled down and expected the defence to be "never said i wanted to consolidate early in the game (bcause stick never said anything about consolidating early in her og post). only when we have an idea slash suspect the gamestate is close to parity we should be wary". the actual reply waaaas longwinded aaand idk not exactly sure what to feel. 

tldr  -
*reads sticks post* hmmm yes we need to be wary of hammers in the endgame
*reads lockys post* agreed but stick never said anything about consolidationings early in the game, surely shell rebut like so
*reads sticks response* huh, what is this defence???.

hehe when the tldr is longer than your og statement :P.

okok watchers watchings point number 2. 

hmm very important point. neutral does not mean harmless to the village. (as i taught yall in mr56 muahahahaha :P). could be baddie neutral. could be wincon to kill x goodies. could be anything. call us pirates because we're partially blindfolded :P. anyway, yes neutral != nice goodie adjacent lad. we need to be aware their motivations too. as such, quite happy with my vote. [edit: the second post from fadran doubling down could be a show as well to fake neutral after og slip]

point tres. i was just re-reading the thread and felt ash and aman (oooooh merge them and you get asha'man) are not both baddies on gut. bcause ash be speculating keeper or striker. but then i realised. bros. we dont know if baddies are informed or uninformed. one of the best ways to balance unflippiness is to isolate the baddies (or some sort of uninformed mechanism) [the other way is to make baddies numbers v smol like locky said]. if so, my entire associationings are useless smh. @Kasimir, do we get to know if baddies are informed or not? 

Have rather limited time nowadays to actually keep abreast of the thread, particularly with this volume of posting, so am just going to try to finish the conversation I did engage in this morning.

Including for reference above.

Restating my point in a potentially clearer way, the elim win con to remove Kas or Fifth at parity should not affect our game play at all. If the eliminators can hammer at parity, they could no less successfully hammer on a villager, to achieve overparity. The only effect it has is in making clear to the village (and any neutrals, I suppose), who the eliminators are, when they are already at parity.

That the eliminators can win by winning the lynch at parity is the same as in nearly every other SE game I have played. I do not see how a statement of something with no difference in conditions should result in different behaviour to normal.

I need to take time to think through her second post in more depth. I think whilst TJ is right that I may have misinterpreted Stick’s first post, the second post suggests I did not, and she genuinely is and was arguing that the not-actually-a-hammer-hammer ought to change our behaviour.

Other misc thoughts:

Agree with Xino that a general sense check suggests that at least five football based roles in an SE sub forum based game is unlikely. Need to try to think through what that actually means about Aman’s role/alignment.

Gut village read on Araris, probably because I saw him agree with me

 

[StrikerEZ he/him]

All I’m willing to say about my role is that I like rolls.

Also I bet Aman/Wiz team. Spec doc, give me the $20 now that I’m betting I’m right.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 minutes ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

Define "interactions"

If you're suggesting not-village, who are you interacting with? Trying to uncover roles, alignments, whichever? But now it's a bit?

[Channelknight Fadran]

Well currently I'm interacting with a whole lot of people trying to convince them that nothing I've said so far has been serious.

Except for the fact that Kasimir is trying to incite a civil war, thus providing the necessary blood sacrifice for them to finish their nationwide transumatation circle and subsequently create the world's largest philosopher's stone in order to attain God.

[Stick. she/her]

1 minute ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

Well currently I'm interacting with a whole lot of people trying to convince them that nothing I've said so far has been serious.

You said ‘I’m a villager’ so can we assume that to be untrue?

[Channelknight Fadran]

Listen here you little cremling

[Stick. she/her]

Just now, Channelknight Fadran said:

Listen here you little cremling

hacked for sure 

[Amanuensis he/him]

5 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Have rather limited time nowadays to actually keep abreast of the thread, particularly with this volume of posting, so am just going to try to finish the conversation I did engage in this morning.

Including for reference above.

Restating my point in a potentially clearer way, the elim win con to remove Kas or Fifth at parity should not affect our game play at all. If the eliminators can hammer at parity, they could no less successfully hammer on a villager, to achieve overparity. The only effect it has is in making clear to the village (and any neutrals, I suppose), who the eliminators are, when they are already at parity.

That the eliminators can win by winning the lynch at parity is the same as in nearly every other SE game I have played. I do not see how a statement of something with no difference in conditions should result in different behaviour to normal.

I need to take time to think through her second post in more depth. I think whilst TJ is right that I may have misinterpreted Stick’s first post, the second post suggests I did not, and she genuinely is and was arguing that the not-actually-a-hammer-hammer ought to change our behaviour.

FTR I like your arguments and have been tempted to sheep, but I'd rather Yellow Card Stick tonight since I think she's a World Cupper  could be an opportunity for me to prove my role too.

9 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Agree with Xino that a general sense check suggests that at least five football based roles in an SE sub forum based game is unlikely. Need to try to think through what that actually means about Aman’s role/alignment.

Based on what Kas/Fifth would answer, every role might not be in the game. My theory right now is Midfielder's are glorified Vanillas and there's like 4-5 of them to make my win con harder, 0-1 Captain, 2 Goalkeepers, and 0-2 Strikers. Goalkeepers probably a Lurcher variant, Strikers probably a Coinshot variant. My Captain theory is they have a list of all World Cuppers and their roles, probably including me.

[Stick. she/her]

We know that two yellow cards get you killed but what does one yellow card do? I may or may not be a world cupper, but if I don’t immediately die how is your role proven?

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

We know that two yellow cards get you killed but what does one yellow card do? I may or may not be a world cupper, but if I don’t immediately die how is your role proven?

World Cuppers receive warnings, non-World Cuppers receive nothing. So if you're a World Cupper you could confirm my role D2. If you're not then I'll need to find someone else to verify.