Long Game 90: Undiluted Powers

[Kasimir]

1 hour ago, dannnnnnex said:

like he literally made graphs

[OOC: 

1. QF62, V!Kas

On 9/7/2022 at 4:37 PM, Kasimir said:

Orlok would kill me if I never point out that effort clearing is problematic. But I also admit E!Kas would have no patience because I burned too many hours of my life trying to make this make sense.

QF62, V!Kas. You played with V!Kas in this game, and V!Kas produced this monster. Funny you don't seem to remember it.

Said monster/insanely time-consuming post:

2. AG7, V!Kas

Included with table.

3. LG73, V!Kas

Defense pathwalking.

Guess who did a spreadsheet?

4. LG79, V!Kas

Form tracking splits.

Why have a life when you can do long vote progression trackers?

Malibu hunts based on gem and actions tracking. Spoiler alert: Ash foiled me.

5. AG8, V!Kas

Some insane squeaky lad analyses PMs and produces a gambit. Sure ain't me though, is kel. We know kel is a madlad.

Squeaky madlad also puts down a huge post outlining the gambit thoughts, evidence, counterarguments, replies, and results.

Spoiler

 

 

Just for lulz, this is the viz I ended up with (to be fair I did the first one in Seaborn, that’s the one I used in the game so it’s way less pretty but I was doing some coding homework and some Tableau homework so I went back to do it in Tableau because making it aesthetic in Tableau is less fiddly)

 

 

Interesting features: again, could’ve used the Tableau colourblind palette but it was for personal use so not important. Size of dot tracks how many responses hit that classification. Key observations:

 

• Most Village responses cluster in Cat 1 - this is a reasonable inference/assumption too, as on D3, majority of responses will in fact be Village

• The only Cat 3 responses all came from Elims - you can see both Beagle and Cham have a sizeable number of Cat 3 responses, while Gorilla’s response is a single datapoint but Gorilla has the PMs too

• Albatross, Falcon, Swan, Heron, Ostrich, and Dingo are standouts here - Albatross and Dingo are especially ‘anomalous’ because they both have responses in anomalous categories, but note that Dingo has two anomalies - Albatross has several baseline Villager responses and another anomaly. (More on Falcon et al later.)

• Swan’s anomalous responses are outweighed by robust Cat 1 responses - might be suggestive that Cat 6 is a natural Villager response, which if true, weights Penguin’s response towards Village-side (and Penguin also has Cat 1 Villager response.)

• Heron and Falcon are our other anomalies because Heron only has a Cat 4 response, and Falcon has multiple Cat 4 responses. But Cat 4 is an overwhelmingly Village tier, as Falcon and Ostrich pointed out separately. 

 

Hyena isn’t identifiable from this visualisation because he has a single Cat 1 response but his PM responses and Gorilla defense, IMO, are already helpful in IDing him. Nature of his Cat 1 response was also anomalous but that’s getting more fine-grained than the stripplot was meant to handle. In general the stripplot gives you an overview based off categorised response types so it’s very basic reads and it does catch Villagers too but the main takeaway IMO is that it results in a distinct Evil pool of <Beagle, Cham, Gorilla>, and a subsidiary ??? pool of <Albatross, Heron, Dingo, Falcon, Ostrich> from which it’s possible to probably narrow down by Cat response typologies to Albatross and Dingo.

 

But there’s also technically one other problem, which is that we know some players checked the thread and just didn’t respond so I’d probably have to issue a non-response Cat which we’d have to look at, but I’d just ruled out because my base assumption was that any active Elim would eventually tell their team to make some response but not stick out.

 

“Kel, why didn’t you say so in thread,” you might ask.

 

…I don’t trust myself on reads and assigning a typology still involves basic reads.

 

Will I be doing this in games going forward? No. This was just a chance to test my data visualisation/data analytics skills since I was already collecting gambit responses and so I figured I might as well just do it since my data-set was really small.

Mad squeaky boi in AG8 dead doc posting work he did but never showed in the thread due to little need for it and lack of confidence

I can do you one better, though. My Elim history is so small I can actually go through every single E!me game and show this doesn't happen in them :eyes:

If you're with me, hit the spoiler eye. If you have better things to do, go ahead

Spoiler

Here are all the games I have been Evil in:

• LG5

Frankly, too early to count. Also, as @Alvron can ascertain, my job was to be the FNG so no analytical posts in the thread at all, just shallow things. Here's a typical post from LG5!Kas:

Just kinda short and threadbare. Poor lad, the business of fabricating reasons clearly isn't agreeing with him  

• LG6

This one's a bit different, as I was a third party Evil role that was unscannable and got killed by Evil which was a point of "oh crap you blended too well with the Village."

And cut some dubious deals with V!Maili. Never do that.

Engaging in WGG arguments. Irony, as Wilson and Araris would do lethal things with a WGG in LG14 (or was it LG15?) and AG3. Tyrian fell. But at that time, the meta was unthinkable. I was aiming to play as a Villager and I didn't know who the Evil players were, so this one doesn't count. Either way, my playstyle's shifted a lot since the single digit LGs. 

• MR3

Evil with Wyrm, we wrecked the Village. Wyrm worked thread control, I quietly supported him.

Bad arguments left right centre, and I certainly wasn't bothering with analysis

Shameful, frankly. Arguments that go in circles and a lazy poke vote. Not much attempt to solve or to engage.

• MR9

Good luck with this one, I disappeared after C1 or C2 to go buy a pack of cigarettes.

Behold how committed I was to analysis!  Though tbf, I was one of the 'veteran' players on a green Elim team going up against V!Maili, V!Joe, V!Wyrm, V!STINK, V!Orlok, V!Aman, V!Araris. I'm surprised I didn't just prostrate myself at their feet and surrender. I count a glorious two posts in a highly active cycle

• LG20

Ah, this one. There's a lot of guilt there as I got IDed on C1, made an E!slip C1 or C2, and then vanished to go for surgery and recovered. Reading this one is...difficult for me. And it fed into later overcompensation when playing with Orlok. Oh well. Oh, Alv's in this game huh? Sorry @Alvron

Here's the big slip - V!Kas should not have known for certain that Orlok's action was redirected to himself N1. Twei caught it. RIP, Kas, you were a fool but you tried :star: :rainbow:

• BT1

And here we have this single post marking the most analysis I did for the game and never again. The Elim doc makes it clear I only did it because I saw in that moment a way to make Striker look really good and CBA otherwise  

Typical Kas post:

That 'You Did A Lot of Analysis' from Stick, based off one post:

Notice it is a lot more brief than my usual posts  Sure, we can point out it was 1AM++ for me, and one hour cycles are insane rushes. But wanna see where E!Kas cuts corners?

He never did any other vote analysis beyond the 'easy' cycles.

Quote

I'll go over the C2 voting results briefly, but I don't know if I will have time in my current state to finish it and also engage with this hour's thread. Will do my best.

 

Narrator: He Did Not.

Wanna bet if he did C3 or C4?

Narrator: He Did Not.

He took the easy out because it exonerated a teammate and then stopped bothering.

Might I remind you that I've pointed out it would make no sense then for E!me to want to save E!Xino...and go through all that effort...then vote on him?  

• QF59

Trauma conga-line. I had to post, but just enough to keep one step ahead of the Village. My posts circle around because there is no fundamentally interesting analysis to do when I already know the answer.

This is long but I am not actually saying anything in here, if you notice. I am replying to people and committedly sitting on the fence.

Single substantive analysis post which opens a lot of possibilities.

I then proceed to crutch on it and lynch just about whoever for the rest of the cycle than thinking things through.

Illwei names her five. It's a good plan. It's why I completely ignore it for vague waffling.

"Huge analysis post" that doesn't go anywhere, and I point to this with:

Quote

And having done all this work, I'm going to proceed to throw it out the window anyway because I'm more committed to V!Ash than I am to E!Ash 

 

This one is harder to see, but I'm fundamentally responsive to thread forces rather than trying to drive much. Maili calls it out:

Quote

But he did end up voting on him. I think that's been Kas's play so far. Play kind of a middle road during the cycle, pushing on various people in thread, and then consolidating on any bandwagon that appears.

 

• MR59

Last, most recent Evil game.

Cursory vote pool analysis.

Significant post volume from meta arguments, which, fair, V!me also gets drawn into, but never at the expense of doing Village footwork.

• And that's it. Whoa.

The irony is I am against effort-clears as Orlok is, but it's also a known fact about my playstyle, albeit one I don't like to advertise as much, that E!me doesn't actually put in as much effort as V!me, or to put it another way, V!me doesn't actually give many crems at all  Because this sits awkwardly to my commitment not to effortclear, I don't advertise this, but players who know me well recognise this as one of my many Village/Evil tells.

E!me absolutely cuts corners where possible to appear active but dislikes the situation and CBA to pretend solving because it's boring. V!me thinks it's grand fun  

In summation:

• Sure, E!me and V!me will share analysis styles. I can't be that obvious, it would be sad.
• REACTIVITY is quite true as a measure for E!me, less so for INACTIVITY.
• E!me will do the bare minimum he can get away with, so when he doesn't have to do analysis or rethink, he will [Edit: will not]
• I didn't just focus on the Xino argument, though I believe it's helpful to get rid of it for once and for all. It can be litigated - it's a matter of fact/an empirical argument, so might as well clear it. I've also IDed questions I have, which I've asked in order to try to get a clearer picture of the cycle, and drive discussion. I've done vote progression analysis yesterday while trying to sense-make. In general, if there's one thing I'm not right now, it's reactive.
• In terms of effort volume, there's very clearly an overlap but the extreme ends of E!min effort and V!max effort don't overlap for me. V!max effort, for instance, being drawn out by the selection of games I've thrown at you. None of these games show any willingness to do V!max effort. You can take a look and come back to me, but I know my own games, even if you don't, and you can maybe think about what sort of insanity it would take for E!me to assert in this thread something provably false about how E!me plays.
• But you do you.

P.S. Xino, this is what I mean. It doesn't make sense to me someone can listen to a complete mischaracterisation of their playstyle and not go ??? this is obviously false what gives.

P.P.S. I've asked before if it would be obviously problematic if V!me were to point out the difference between V!me and E!me. The IM answer then was, "You are legally allowed to screw E!Kas over" so here we go  ]

Edited October 25, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Matrim's Dice, given your read of TUN, why was TUN not an early option for you?

Can I ask why you're signaling TUN out from my Null- reads? Over JNV and Dannex I mean, both of which I slotted lower in the tier list. Not to mention Cinnamon, Silvereye, and then xino who was the lowest, though to be fair Cin/Silver are new and therefore were off the table. My goal in voting was to help consolidate, help get Bookwyrm out of hot water, as well as vote somewhere I felt comfortable with, and xino was the only option that effectively did all three. JNV, Dannex, and TUN all effectively had no votes (TUN's single vote at the time of my megapost was cast by himself, so it wasn't considered) and so while I read them as more elim than not they wouldn't have accomplished what I was trying to by voting.

If when you say 'early option' you mean when TUN had votes other than himself, at that time I didn't really have a read on TUN. It didn't really manifest until I reread the thread in preparation for making the reads list.

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Mat is null on Ash and would rather go for Ash than pushing TUN despite having a reasoned null- on TUN

I don't know where you got that I'd rather have gone for Ash than TUN. All I said was that I wasn't directly opposed to Ash going over (ie. I didn't have a village read on him, he was null) and that I'd vote Ash over Bookwyrm (who I did have a village lean on). If TUN had been a serious train at that point I definitely would have voted there over Ash, though probably not over xino. But to me everyone voting TUN, then unvoting indicated a disinterest in that route, and tbh I feel a bit isolated in leaning elim on TUN when everyone else seems to village lean him.

[Kasimir]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Can I ask why you're signaling TUN out from my Null- reads? Over JNV and Dannex I mean, both of which I slotted lower in the tier list. Not to mention Cinnamon, Silvereye, and then xino who was the lowest, though to be fair Cin/Silver are new and therefore were off the table. My goal in voting was to help consolidate, help get Bookwyrm out of hot water, as well as vote somewhere I felt comfortable with, and xino was the only option that effectively did all three. JNV, Dannex, and TUN all effectively had no votes (TUN's single vote at the time of my megapost was cast by himself, so it wasn't considered) and so while I read them as more elim than not they wouldn't have accomplished what I was trying to by voting.

[OOC: Viability. Dannex and JNV were not necessarily lynches for which you'd get support. JNV'd signposted support for a TUN lynch, even if weakly. There was also a single existing TUN vote, and you seemed to be discussing every single train that was viable and existing. Cin/Silver, as you point out, were off the table. Here's the post I linked to in my discussion of everyone, including you, that I had questions on:

Quote

I don't think I could live with myself if I killed v!Wiz D1 again, but I'm not throwing my gut out the window entirely either. I trust myself late game much more than I do D1 so I'd rather save Wiz for then. For today, I think I'll propose xino as a countertrain to Bookwyrm-- I'd rather not kill a new player D1 (besides, leaning village there) and I think Illwei's case is alright (though she didn't ever vote, which is interesting) and Conq and Stick both seem okay to me at the current stage (voting xino/voted on by xino, respectively). Not directly opposed to Ash either and if the trains stay as there are (ha) I'll vote there over Bookwyrm. It does look like rollover is at a bad time for me being online though.

I've bolded all the players/trains you mention as an option.

My presumption was that you didn't mention JNV and Danex as those weren't live trains. TUN could, technically, as you point out, be a self-vote, but JNV had expressed support for a TUN lynch, so there was certainly more appetite there, given you'd nulled Ash explicitly in your reads.

Your post also happened at 0131hrs, which was 3.5 hours to rollover, so I was wondering about that, since there was enough time to pivot to a train you were more convinced by, once again, given appetite.

As we know now, JNV didn't show up, but then!Mat wouldn't have known that. Unless there was something else going on  

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don't know where you got that I'd rather have gone for Ash than TUN. All I said was that I wasn't directly opposed to Ash going over (ie. I didn't have a village read on him, he was null) and that I'd vote Ash over Bookwyrm (who I did have a village lean on). If TUN had been a serious train at that point I definitely would have voted there over Ash, though probably not over xino. But to me everyone voting TUN, then unvoting indicated a disinterest in that route, and tbh I feel a bit isolated in leaning elim on TUN when everyone else seems to village lean him.

See above - JNV indicated sus of TUN and a willingness to go to TUN. You highlight Ash as an option over Bookwyrm and don't mention TUN. That seems to imply that practically, you prefer Ash over a TUN train, since he wasn't an option. I admit part of me is wondering if I am tunnelling a bit too hard by wondering why V!you doesn't just go, "Ok guys btw if anyone's game for TUN or any of my null-s, I'm open for that as well."]

[Mat]

Just now, Kasimir said:

JNV'd signposted support for a TUN lynch, even if weakly. There was also a single existing TUN vote, and you seemed to be discussing every single train that was viable and existing.

I didn't notice the signpost, to be fair. And I didn't consider the TUN train as viable at all for reasons I already mentioned-- it was only there from a self vote, and the thread mood thusfar seemed to be village leaning TUN and had already showed disinterest in sustaining his train.

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

I've bolded all the players/trains you mention as an option.

I'm realizing now that Conq and Stick both had votes, but when I mentioned them it wasn't because of their votes. That's... an honest coincidence xD I mentioned them because of their relation to xino (which is apparent in the parenthesis after I mentioned them). I mentioned Bookwyrm because it was my intention that they survived, and Ash because he was the other train with multiple votes.

Does that make sense? I get how that can be confusing lol. But I wasn't intending to discuss all the people with votes in that paragraph, otherwise I... would have :P. It would have been me dismissing TUN for the reasons I said in the first paragraph of this post, but it would have been there.

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

See above - JNV indicated sus of TUN and a willingness to go to TUN. You highlight Ash as an option over Bookwyrm and don't mention TUN. That seems to imply that practically, you prefer Ash over a TUN train, since he wasn't an option. I admit part of me is wondering if I am tunnelling a bit too hard by wondering why V!you doesn't just go, "Ok guys btw if anyone's game for TUN or any of my null-s, I'm open for that as well."

As mentioned, I'd missed JNV's apparent willingness for a TUN train and just remembered the unvotes and general village reads of him. I didn't mention TUN because he was self voting and was as much of a zero train as Dannex or JNV for me.

And yeah, just because I didn't explicitly say that I was fine with TUN/Dannex/JNV doesn't mean that I wasn't :P.

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm realizing now that Conq and Stick both had votes, but when I mentioned them it wasn't because of their votes. That's... an honest coincidence xD I mentioned them because of their relation to xino (which is apparent in the parenthesis after I mentioned them). I mentioned Bookwyrm because it was my intention that they survived, and Ash because he was the other train with multiple votes.

[OOC: Okay, fair enough.]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And yeah, just because I didn't explicitly say that I was fine with TUN/Dannex/JNV doesn't mean that I wasn't :P.

[OOC: I mean, yeah, but there's a difference between proactively soliciting and being passively open to it, IMO. One puts the option on the table, the other waits for people to suggest it as an option off your reads. It's just a bit odd to me, since I tend to associate V!Mat with being proactive, but I'm sure I'll live to ask more questions/do more analysis another day.

Maybe  ]

[xinoehp512]

People who didn't vote last round:

• Illwei - Pushes for me but doesn't vote me. Defends her reasoning but seems to be against the train? Very strange.
• Archivist - A new player. If e, it's possible teammates told them not to vote.
• JNV - A couple of posts I can't quite read.
• Alvron - Declared non-voter.
• Shadow - Busy D1
• Turtle - Not present

People who voted but then retracted:

• Kas - near the end of the cycle, came back to examine the lead trains, voted then unvoted me.
• Devo - Voted then unvoted ashbringer.
• Wizard - Last vote was on Turtle,
• Silvereye - Last vote on Mat, seemed unsure about the game.

Of these people, I'm most suspicious of Illwei.

 

[danex]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

OOC

alright nvm i’m effort-clearing kas now

vil!kas all the way

 

2 hours ago, JNV said:

besides like the thought of effort clearing someone is just kinda weird inherently like I know the ideal villager puts in effort and tries and stuff but just look at a normal villager that doesnt really happen effort is a way of life

this is the strangest take i’ve ever seen, especially coming from someone who just said that perma clearing kas based on gut made sense

[Araris Valerian]

Here’s an official GM reminder that you have just over 2 hours to submit actions!

[Kasimir]

1 hour ago, xinoehp512 said:

• Devo - Voted then unvoted ashbringer.

One way or another, I figgered I was mebbe a bit more confident that Ora [OOC: @Devotary of Spontaneity] was Village, than when I'd started. It'd been something small at first, that sorta gut feelin' ye get when ye know how someone works. 'Course, it was the first day, so one way or 'nother, be a tough call to bet the village on it, as they say.

But that last minute accusations? Pickin' out Derrick [OOC: Ashbringer] then sayin' he wasn't that suspicious in her eyes? I'd heard her thoughts and reckoned they came from a position that seemed a wee bit more Village to me than not. Thing was, iffen you looked at how Ora's thoughts were developin':

First, she says this:

Quote

I don't see any particular reasons for Ash to be an elim other than voting in self-preservation a full 2 hours 20 minutes before rollover. It seems like people have locked on to either Ash or Xino far in advance of when it's actually necessary to ensure someone dies. I do think Bookwyrm is more likely evil but don't want to kill a new player D1. TUN being unwilling to vote is at least consistent with his previously expressed opinions so it's not likely an indicator of being an elim.

I've had thoughts about Xino/Shining e/e but that last interaction is strange with an apology not even for voting Xino but for unvoting a competitor. It's notable if there are people in PMs with Shining defending Ash or attacking Xino, unless 'People are saying things' refers to posts. @Shining Silhouette?

Then, she says:

Quote

Voting someone just so you won't be seen as e/e reads as if you're evil and know Xino's village. Too late to vote for you so Ashbringer.

So she was thinkin' that Disaster [OOC: @Shining Silhouette] was Spiked, an' that if Disaster was like to endanger Dwarf [OOC: @xinoehp512], then mebbe Dwarf weren't of the Spiked after all.

But then, she stops accusin' Derrick a couple moments later:

I askit her, and she shrugs and says, well, she figgered Disaster were Evil, and if Disaster wanted Derrick dead, then she wanted no part of it. Thing is, ye gotta reckon these things come seconds apart. [OOC: Shining first votes Ash at 0458hrs. For reference, rollover is at 0500hrs. Devo votes Ash at 0458hrs and unvotes at 0459hrs.] I figger one way or another, as someone who was as making tough calls at the last minute, reckon it be hard for a Spiked to fake the coherence an' consistency of that kinda thought at the last minute. Figger it'd be mortal hard for one of 'em to think through the implications fast and figger she best stop goin' for Derrick. That kinda pressure response, it rang fair true to me.

[OOC: What I'm saying is that I think it's a tall order for E!Devo to work out a consistent way of reacting to Shining in terms of the votes and to keep that in mind at the very last minute with Shining editing his votes, given their posts were seconds apart. It's not impossible but I deem it unlikely. That sort of kneejerk fine-grained consistency under pressure - Shining Evil, don't vote with Shining, down to that last unvote, feels more like it emerges from a Village mindset than an Evil mindset. Make what you will of it.]

Edited to add:

[OOC: Did some pulling of the timestamps from a script I wrote back in LG84 just for the heck of it since the closeness of the posts IMO has some bearing on Silho and Devo both. I really should have updated the script to make it more user-friendly but oh well. Here is the sequence of events. Shining claimed to have made two edits.

Quote

Shining votes Ash: 20:58:29
Shining unvotes Ash: 20:58:49
Devo votes Ash: 20:58:58
Shining votes Xino: 20:59:50
Devo unvotes Ash: 20:59:55

• Shining unvotes Ash in twenty seconds. Likely not doc related, very natural and immediate panic reaction. Given Ash is Village, don't really see this coming from an Elim mindset since that re-endangers Ash. Looks kinda V.
• Devo votes Ash nine seconds after Shining's unvote. Unclear if related to Shining voting Ash or not - had nearly half a minute (=29s) to see Shining vote Ash, but Ash vote is packaged in a statement which takes time.
• Shining votes Xino fifty two seconds after Devo's post. Unclear if related to Devo.
• Devo unvotes Ash five seconds after Shining votes Xino, and over a minute after Shining unvotes Ash.
• Not so confident this looks good for Devo any longer, though I'll still be fair that under a minute EoD responses are hard for Elims to be consistent with, and she cites unvoting Ash as a response to Shining voting Ash so that's ???
• Devo's stated thought process in PMs is: Shining knew Xino Village -> therefore save Xino, vote Ash. Shining Evil -> if Shining vote Ash, unvote Ash,
• What does the timing look like for this?

  Quote

  Shining votes Ash: 20:58:29
  Shining unvotes Ash: 20:58:49
  Devo responds to an earlier post about Shining unvoting Ash to save Xino, figures this means Xino is Village and votes Ash: 20:58:58
  Shining votes Xino: 20:59:50
  Devo sees Shining's vote on Ash and unvotes Ash: 20:59:55

• This is a slightly more odd sequence of events. I am no longer sure about this. You could say it is still a very EoD crunch and it's still quite fast-moving and difficult for E!Devo to stay consistent. But at the same time, Devo unvoting Ash in response to Shining's vote on Ash is over a minute delayed, and she did a single word unvote. By that point, she should at least have seen that Shining unvoted Ash, so why follow her suspicion off Ash again? Especially since Shiining very rapidly unvoted Ash, which if you think E!Shining, suggests no commitment there.
• Leaving this for someone else to make sense of. I'll try some other time.

Edited October 25, 2022 by Kasimir

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Devo unvotes Ash five seconds after Shining votes Xino, and over a minute after Shining unvotes Ash.

I did not see Shining vote for Ash at the time I voted for him and unvoted Ash as soon as I saw that vote from Shining. I didn't notice Shining edited his post to vote for Xino.

[Araris Valerian]

The Night has ended! Cease your PMing (and any theoretical Spiked doc chatting) until the new day has gone up.

[Araris Valerian]

The door to Dyring’s inn slowly swung inwards, revealing an empty room, save for the slumped form of Koren in the corner. He clutched a mug of ale, half full, but it was not clear whether he was still conscious. 

Several figures in grey cloaks hurried inside as the mists began to pool on the floor, tendrils extending toward Koren. Two of the newcomers headed up the stairs while the others entered the kitchen. The last one paused as Koren muttered, “Shdoomed. Death and dishtruction.” The drunkard’s eyes remained closed, however, so he was ignored. 

Moments later, a yell sounded from up the stairs, jarring Koren to wakefullness. He blinked his eyes. He knew that voice, sounded like Dyring. Another shout came, but this one was feebler. A part of Koren recognized that something was wrong, that Dyring was hurt. Then he noticed for the first time the open door, and the creeping mist that had now reached his seat. Two enshrouded strangers rushed from the upper floor, out the door and into the night. Seconds later, several more came out the back. They spared Koren another glance, seeing that he was now clearly awake, but apparently decided that he wasn’t worth their time, and left. 

Koren shambled his way toward the stairs, feeling his way through the dim room, breathing in the damp, misty air. He had to check on Dyring. Nobody else in the town made good enough drink. As he began to ascend the stairs, he failed to notice a growing orange glow coming from the back room. 

Koren found the door to Dyring’s room forced, and inside, the innkeeper’s body lay in a puddle of blood. He tried to shake the vision from his eye, willing his friend to not be dead, but the harsh reality remained, slowly sinking into Koren’s head. When Koren realized, really understood, that Dyring was gone, something snapped. His sobs mixed with a cackle, and he began screaming at the emptiness of the night. 

“The Deepness will come again! The Koloss will smash our gates, and Tyrian Falls will be buried in ash!" 

Koren continued his rant, ignorant of the flames that were building, licking at the walls of the inn. “The Lord Ruler is powerless against this destruction! He cannot prevail in the face of the oncoming ruin!”

His last cry of “DOOM!” turned into a brief cry of pain as the floor under Koren collapsed, tumbling him into the inferno.

---

In the morning, all that was left of Dying's Inn, it's owner, and single guest, was a smoldering wreckage and a single blackened wall, upon which a message had been left:

 

Quote

 

What say you? A mixture of crispy language in provably lie-filled ash appellations.

Greetings, players; this is your Tineye speaking. All is well.

 

Kasimir (Koren) has been killed! He was a Village Smoker! Dyring was also killed, but y'all don't care about him.

Day 2 has begun, and will end at 5PM EDT on Thursday the 27th.

There is a 1 vote minimum to exe a player, with ties decided randomly.

PMs are open!

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Matrim's Dice (Adam)
2. Ashbringer (AraRaash) Village Mistborn
3. @The Wandering Wizard (Too Big Dancer)
4. @Conquestor (Simeon Venture)
5. @The Unknown Novel (Edven Tyrian)
6. @Illwei (The Best Destroyer)
7. @Shining Silhouette (Terrific Birthday Disaster)
8. @Cinnamon (Evenlyn Royale)
9. @JNV (Atelos)
10. @shadow1 (Shadowblob)
11. @The Aspiring Archivist (Thoughtful Book Dude)
12. @Just a Silvereye (Felix)
13. @dannnnnnex (Terrible Breath Dispensation)
14. @xinoehp512 (Tiny Bearded Dwarf)
15. @Devotary of Spontaneity (Ora)
16. @The Bookwyrm (Rylim Libran)
17. @Turtle (Tortoise By Day)
18. @_Stick_ (;eyes;)
19. Kasimir (Koren) Village Smoker
20. @Alvron (Riven)

Quick Links:

Spoiler

Day 1
Night 1

 

Edited October 25, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[---]

Just saying that after we're done i humbly request the means in which the tineye collected that data to use for my own malicious purposes

[Turtle]

I’d actually like to know too lmao

Love the graphs tineye good job

Ni su’cuyi, gar kyr’adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum kas.

 

[Araris Valerian]

Oh yeah, if I said your action was successful, that doesn't mean it had any effect. Just that no other effects directly blocked it (so if you used Rioting/Soothing on someone that wasn't Smoked, your action would succeed regardless of whether the target took an action in the first place).

[Mat]

I do love those charts, yeah xD

That’s a noticeable difference from the N1 low info kill meta we’ve seen recently, which might be able to tell us something about the team. Or if anyone wants to go through Kas’ posts to look for anything, I wish you good luck  There might be something telling, or Kas might have been killed for being Kas. It’s hard to say. But there is a lot there for you.

Turtle beat me to the Mando (I think it’s Mando) but that’s cause I was trying to look it up and don’t have it memorized  

Anyway I gtg for a bit but I’ll be back

[Turtle]

14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Turtle beat me to the Mando (I think it’s Mando) but that’s cause I was trying to look it up and don’t have it memorized  

Mando’a, mat, mando’a

also yeah if I have time I’ll do some hw on the kill and if anyone recently has nked kas

edit: hahahaha stick was on the five letter words list

Edited October 25, 2022 by Turtle

[The Wandering Wizard]

3 hours ago, Turtle said:

edit: hahahaha stick was on the five letter words list

I find this absurdly funny, for some strange, or perhaps not so strange reason.

Kas is dead, which sucks, as he can be a great asset to the village, but him being a smoker and now dead, could remove some confusion from scanners. Stay alive seekers, stay alive.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TBD really wanted to change his name and left for the lords mansion. Walking on his way he saw a large crowd of people gathered around a burnt patch of land. "What happened here?"

"The Inn was burned down, the owner hasn't been found, and one patron was left in the Inn. Both are presummed dead, but this seems to targeted an attack, a sign to the town, the spiked live among us."

TBD thanked the man and he wandered off, thoughts spinning through his head. Why would this have happened, why?

Edited October 26, 2022 by The Wandering Wizard

[Shining Silhouette]

17 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Kas is dead, which sucks, as he can be a great asset to the village

Us poor fools who thought he was being too incredibly helpful for the village

May you rest in peace, Kas

[Turtle]

52 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

In the morning, all that was left of Dying's Inn, it's owner, and single guest, was a smoldering wreckage and a single blackened wall, upon which a message had been left:

Tortoise looked up at the wall. It was morbidly funny to them that Tineye had managed to write not one, but two graphs on the wall.

hi messing up tineye’s algorithm there is literally no reason to look at this: 

Spoiler

a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a  a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soupsoup soup soup soup soup soupsoup soup soup soup soup soupsoup soup soup soup soup soupsoup soup soup soup soup soupsoup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth  treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages 

tineye if you do nine letter words next time I’m defecting

[Shining Silhouette]

Just now, Turtle said:

Tortoise looked up at the wall. It was morbidly funny to them that Tineye had managed to write not one, but two graphs on the wall.

hi messing up tineye’s algorithm there is literally no reason to look at this: 

  Reveal hidden contents

a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a  a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue sue soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soupsoup soup soup soup soup soupsoup soup soup soup soup soupsoup soup soup soup soup soupsoup soup soup soup soup soupsoup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup soup darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth darth  treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty treaty pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas pizzas cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbage cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages cabbages 

tineye if you do nine letter words next time I’m defecting

Turtle if you're the Tineye I will find this hilarious until the end of time

[Mat]

Some questions to get us started:

@everyone-- stance on xino? This is something that should be a topic of discussion I think, but not one that takes up the whole turn. There's an argument to the usefulness of infokilling him so that we know whether or not last cycle's EoD was v/v or v/e, but honestly I think I slightly lean village at this point since the whole Illwei thing has been cleared up. Sort of. I gather that her original e!xino point was just wrong, but I'm still way more unsure about that than I'd like to be. And outside that I don't have a strong reason to read either way. I'll look at his posts from this game later. But I think I'd be against a straight infokill.

Everyone making a stance on xino either way would be helpful, though.

Secondly, @Conquestor, I'm curious about your xino vote in particular, but more so about your other reads and general thoughts on the game, after being notably absent last turn. Conq's usually much more vocal which I think could be significant but I'd like to give him a chance to contribute before I formally suspect him for it. I'm also curious where @Alvron and @shadow1's thoughts lie.

An updated reads list will come later, probably tomorrow morning but maybe tonight. I'll be around tonight either way, though.

---

Adam stared at the smoked wreckage of the inn, feeling hollow. He hadn't ever been one for tears, and this was no exception to that rule, but... rusts. Koren.

He turned away. Now was no time to be sentimental. The Spiked had shown they didn't mind striking where they knew it would hurt; there was no pretending with them. No phantom killer knifing the quiet town members in the dark to prolong an air of mystery. The inn had been a gathering place, a refuge of warmth where everyone could come for a drink and forget about tomorrow. There would be no more of that.

Adam was no expert on Hemalurgy when it came to humans, but he knew Koloss. To him, it didn't matter how the things were made, or where they came from, just how they acted. Their spikes drove them mad. They thirsted for violence, the lust only strengthening with each kill. They were maniacs. If the Spiked infesting Tyrian were anything like them-- but with added subtlety-- he didn't know how they stood a chance.

Because there are patterns to their ruin, he reminded himself. And I know them. At least where Koloss are concerned. The two creatures had to be similar. They had to be.

He allowed himself to think of Koren and his hearth, one last time. His resolve strengthened, and he clenched a fist. "If I have to pull apart every Tyrian brick to purge this place of evil," he said, "then I will."

With a fire burning in his chest unlike anything he'd ever known, Adam started for Town Square. There was a lot of work to be done, but he didn't have to do it alone.

[The Aspiring Archivist]

Ok, I realize I've been pretty inactive this whole time, so I'm going to try to be a contributor now. I've sort of been lost in regards to what kind of behavior is typical of villagers vs. of eliminators. Or, if it completely depends on the person, then should I be looking at earlier games or smth to figure out how people act? If anyone has any tips, please let me know.

[The Bookwyrm]

Well.

That was unexpected.

Kas analyses were helpful, and I am sad to see them gone.

I am going to do a lot more waiting before I vote this time around. See how things play out a little more. I don't want to be hasty, and I think I can work on gathering information based on people's actions a little more.

Expect a vote in the future, though.

***

Rylim was met by another messenger soon after he awoke.

Apparently, an inn (located outside of House Libran's jurisdiction, luckily) had been burned to the ground. Not only that, but a Skaa who had been one of the main investigators in this whole scenario had died in the fire. His name had been Koren. Rylim had been keeping an eye and ear out for him: despite being a Skaa, he had been well known among his peers, and despite being well known as a drunkard, he had seemed to have a mind for this sort of situation. Rylim had to admit that what his spies overheard from the man had been valuable. He was sorry to see him gone.

There was also a strange message burned into the wall of the inn, which Rylim was still trying to figure out.

As the problems in Tyrian Falls had continued, several major players had arisen. Some noble, others skaa. Rylim assumed that the spiked were among these people. He just couldn't figure out which ones yet.

He'd have to watch very closely in the coming days...

***

[Turtle]

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

What say you? A mixture of crispy language in provably lie-filled ash appellations.

I have,,,, no idea how to take this. 
 

WSH AMOCLIPLFAA 

noting the use of the word ash, my immediate thought was to go to ash’s number in the d1 post count and then to go to that number on the words but all I’m getting is ‘their’ which is absolutely unhelpful.

how does one prove the appellations are lie-filled? 
and what on earth is crispy language? 
 

appellation: the act of giving one a name or a title, or a title itself. 
 

what.