Long Game 90: Undiluted Powers

[The Wandering Wizard]

I've been busy, I don't have time for much right now, nor much time for reads, so I think I'll let my vote stay. 

Nope nevermind Turtle. I don't really want to join a train, but I also don't like killing a new person. HHHRRGN. Nope, just gonna let it sit.

[xinoehp512]

Of the people with votes, I'm comfortable staying on Ash.

• TUN (1): TUN
• Bookwyrm (2): Kas, Ash
• Ash (2): Cinnamon, Xino
• Xino (2): Conq, Mat
• Mat (1): Danex
• Kas (1): Bookwyrm
• Silvereye (1): Stick

[The Bookwyrm]

...I'm torn.

I've somehow landed with two votes, which when considering Silhouette's vote change, puts me at a chance for death. Which I don't want to happen.

Gah, this is difficult....

Kasimir

Ashbringer

I'm sorry, Ash...things got weird quickly, and this is most likely my best option.

• TUN (1): TUN
• Bookwyrm (2): Kas, Ash
• Ash (3): Cinnamon, Xino, Bookwyrm
• Xino (2): Conq, Mat
• Mat (1): Danex
• Silvereye (1): Stick

Edited October 24, 2022 by The Bookwyrm
Added the new vote count.

[---]

Last game and this game were to me an experiment of sorts. Not really, but like how I notice matrim go "she seems like last game, but that's how she always is" is completely false but tells me how Mat and probably most players perceive me.

I've already posted more words than I did in the last game. I posted nothing basically to see if anyone would care and the outcome was they townread me more. If you look at the last game and the game I played before that or lg86 which I feel is am normal village game from me. And if you don't see a difference then I don't know what to tell you

This isn't much relevant to solving the game rn. Just comments. 

[Ashbringer]

Bookwyrm Xino

Self-preservation. Although idk how much I like the given options.

Bookwyrm, why me and not Xino? That’s the 2nd time you picked me out of a set of options.

[Mat]

20 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Of the people with votes, I'm comfortable staying on Ash.

What for? I don't recall you ever posting thoughts on Ash and that statement makes it seem like more than self pres.

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Bookwyrm, why me and not Xino? That’s the 2nd time you picked me out of a set of options.

@The Bookwyrm I'd also like an answer to this

18 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Not really, but like how I notice matrim go "she seems like last game, but that's how she always is" is completely false but tells me how Mat and probably most players perceive me.

I've already posted more words than I did in the last game. I posted nothing basically to see if anyone would care and the outcome was they townread me more. If you look at the last game and the game I played before that or lg86 which I feel is am normal village game from me. And if you don't see a difference then I don't know what to tell you

Ah, well, sorry. I thought you were decently active D1 of the last game, just not the turn we killed you :P. Maybe that's just a false memory. So like I saw the lower activity as a thing of circumstance and not a conscious change. If that makes sense. I compared this to what was in my head for D1 of the QF to what I remember of previous games and got a 'seems normal' which is code for 'waiting to do VC analysis'.

What do you think of the xino train?

[xinoehp512]

29 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Bookwyrm Xino

Self-preservation. Although idk how much I like the given options.

Bookwyrm, why me and not Xino? That’s the 2nd time you picked me out of a set of options.

Well, if Book voted me, I could have voted Book to self-pres, tying us. 

[The Bookwyrm]

34 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Bookwyrm, why me and not Xino? That’s the 2nd time you picked me out of a set of options.

 

25 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@The Bookwyrm I'd also like an answer to this

Between the two options, I think you're slightly more suspicious, Ash. Xino's vote was, at least according to them, for the sake of self preservation. Due to a gut feeling that I can't explain, they seem less suspicious than you do, especially how both you and Kas seemed to single me out after a few vote switches. (More than a few in Kas's case.) Kas seemed to settle on that, and you only switched for self preservation.

There is, of course, a chance that I'm reading this completely wrong and that I'll pay for it in the next few days, but...for now, I think this is the safest bet.

And what Xino just added above is also fair reasoning and accurate.

Edited October 24, 2022 by The Bookwyrm

[xinoehp512]

24 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

What for? I don't recall you ever posting thoughts on Ash and that statement makes it seem like more than self pres.

It was just self pres at first. Once Shining unvoted, though, it would have made no difference to switch, so I looked at the options. I v!read you and Kas, Book and Silver are both new, and TUN often dies early.

[The Unknown Ajah]

 

Quote

I respectfully disagree. I believe that Elims are catchable based on slight mistakes D1, and even if we lynch villagers, Elims' posts from earlier and their reasoning for their posts give us more info to work with.

If we all had that mindset, then it'd be really easy to hide in "trying not to be wrong".

And also, one of these times, E!TUN could easily just pretend to not have enough evidence to vote and hide among the masses.

What can I say, sometimes you just gotta start early

Keep 'dem elims on their toes 

Hahahaha check out my previous games.I do that a lot. Speaking of which....

I agree with literally the entire first paragraph, I'm not anti d1 vote; I'm anti voting with little to no reason.

3 hours ago, Alvron said:

Also, Kas, how could you vote for a Wyrm? Or do you think they are an imposter Wyrm?  

I know, this is so confusing despite never having actually played with/been gmed by/officially spectated by Wyrm.

[Mat]

Just now, The Bookwyrm said:

Between the two options, I think you're slightly more suspicious, Ash. Xino's vote was, at least according to them, for the sake of self preservation. Due to a gut feeling that I can't explain, they seem less suspicious than you do, especially how both you and Kas seemed to single me out after a few vote switches. (More than a few in Kas's case.) 

Self pres is NAI (meaning it isn't suspicious, but also isn't a reason to village read someone) so Ash voting in self pres right now puts them even for that. I guess I'm more interested in why you picked Ash the first time you did, but if it's just gut I guess there isn't anything besides that.

Just now, xinoehp512 said:

It was just self pres at first. Once Shining unvoted, though, it would have made no difference to switch, so I looked at the options. I v!read you and Kas, Book and Silver are both new, and TUN often dies early.

Fair enough.

[---]

Honestly I'm not sure how I feel on the xino train. Despite calling him town and then calling him an elim in 2/3 of my posts I don't have a strong read on that, and don't find a strong reason to develop one at this point, with how day has gone. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I don't see any particular reasons for Ash to be an elim other than voting in self-preservation a full 2 hours 20 minutes before rollover. It seems like people have locked on to either Ash or Xino far in advance of when it's actually necessary to ensure someone dies. I do think Bookwyrm is more likely evil but don't want to kill a new player D1. TUN being unwilling to vote is at least consistent with his previously expressed opinions so it's not likely an indicator of being an elim.

I've had thoughts about Xino/Shining e/e but that last interaction is strange with an apology not even for voting Xino but for unvoting a competitor. It's notable if there are people in PMs with Shining defending Ash or attacking Xino, unless 'People are saying things' refers to posts. @Shining Silhouette?

[Kasimir]

[OOC: RP next round. Woke up after trippy dreams and more pain so I'm going to be asking the doctor for painkillers that do not involve knocking me out and givinf me dreams where I'm tasting the colour yellow and runy egges :/

• TUN (1): TUN
• Bookwyrm (1): Kas
• Ash (3): Cinnamon, Xino, Bookwyrm
• Xino (3): Conq, Mat, Ash
• Mat (1): Danex
• Silvereye (1): Stick

@Araris Valerian: FYI that I voted Bookwyrm, let me know if there's a way for me to indicate it in my RP that makes it easier for you. Cf:

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Thing is, Rylim Libran [OOC: Bookwyrm] seemed new to this business.

Choices are functionally between Ash and Xino right now, unless someone wants to cw. As I've stated in a couple of PMs, I am content to leave my thoughts about Bookwyrm in the thread, and I don't feel 'right' enough to want to push a new player aggressively D1, as long as my 'Eh' list is on the chopping board. Also potential shades of AG8 and LG89 where I 'one thing' deathtunnel a player because I gave undue weight to a single point about their play, so I don't feel excessively confident and will just let my points speak for themselves.

@_Stick_: Any reason you're going sidetrain? (Recognise it is unholy for both your timezone and mine, so unlikely to get a response, but I just wanted to ask.)

I feel like I came back to a lot of last minute activity, which is good for retrospective analysis, as it likely indicates something struck a nerve, though on the face of it, it's a self-pres fest.

My starting position before catch-up is I don't feel I have reason for even a marginal V!read of Ash or Xino, so I'm fine with either of them. But the late surge of activity interests me, and I think it's worth looking through now to try to sensemake, since activity implies commitment, and we want to make sense of what sort of commitment it is. So sort of my last para rehashed.

Pre-Meds Trip VC:

Quote

TUN (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (2): Kas, Ash
Ash (1): Cinnamon
Wiz (1): Mat
Stick (1): Xino
Xino (1): Conq
Mat (1): Danex
Turtle (1): Wiz
Kas (1): Bookwyrm
Silvereye (1): Stick

I go sleep. And then:

(1) Shining moves from Illwei to Ash. @Shining Silhouette, what's with this move? You signalled this by suggesting previously that you were not sure about having gone immediately on Illwei, but I'm interested anyway.

(2) Mat makes a shift from Wiz to Xino. Reasons spelled out as preferring Illwei's case on Xino, not wanting to be wrong about V!Wiz again at this stage, but favouring Ash over Bookwyrm.

Illwei's case on Xino boils down to:

19 hours ago, Illwei said:

I actually think I don't believe it at all

Xino typically has his standard posting style, which is almost always formatted like

[Votecount]
thoughts

---

RP

Maybe not always in that order, but usually those components.
Almost every time that he doesn't post like this- starts posting one liners and whatnot, he's an elim

So my first reaction is that after GMing and playing with various flavours of Xino, I don't really know what to think. Fair disclaimer that my formative memories of Xino's playstyle are predominantly from when I've GMed him, and he's been all over the place so there's a reflexive 'wait what' from me.

I went to do more digging. I think the more precise read of Illwei's point is 'if Xino deviates, he is highly likely an Elim', which =/= functionally to 'if Xino is Elim, then he is highly likely to deviate.' I'm not so sure about the latter, I've GMed him in MR43 as a Villager where he did a brief rule analysis ( @Matrim's Dice, this is what I mean by it's not so much accuracy but I remember what sticks out to me, because before checking, I would not have remembered the rule analysis at all),  aggressively RPed, and single-line voted. Main reaction to getting voted on was this, which was fairly understated. He also showed up in the last cycle to counter-vote E!Drake, who was leading a train on him.

We've also definitely seen games that have deviated from this, in which Xino was Evil, such as in MR53 where he went inactive for most of it (so I don't count that particularly telling, because inactivity normally happens for reasons beyond the player's control, but it's still a datapoint), and BT2, where he was Evil and did his bucket analysis. I don't necessarily expect much RP out of xino, since this was a BT and no time for that. Offered this defense as well. (Sorry about the formatting, just sorta typing as I go.) BT1, V!Xino did a vote auctioning thing, which was pretty bold and contributed to V!reads of him. Also a deviation.

I broadscanned MR60, also seeing deviations like this Devo vote here. MR57, more Xino deviations in the inauguration of his Bucket System. Posted rule analysis, and I don't recall seeing RP out of him. Hell, go read this if you want to see highly engaged C1 V!Xino. And yet another deviation from E!Xino in the recent LG89.

Like, sweet Harmony, I don't think this meta argument even bears out in the playdata? And the bigger question: why the hell doesn't Xino defend this? 'Cause like, you know your own playstyle best, so why even let this get off the ground to begin with? It's not something I can make sense of especially given Xino's commitment to staying alive. Damnit but I feel like I've wasted an hour or so of my life just going to check. 

Mat's argument is that it's less about Xino playing like his Elim games and more about Xino playing less like his Village games, which ok, IDK. Xino is more invested this time and I do agree he feels different but IDK if that's an Evil different.

(3) Xino goes Ash for self-pres. He says this is because this gives him the option to switch to Bookwyrm later if Bookwyrm goes for him. 

46 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Well, if Book voted me, I could have voted Book to self-pres, tying us. 

 

Later, he also clarifies that it was about picking less bad options:

42 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

It was just self pres at first. Once Shining unvoted, though, it would have made no difference to switch, so I looked at the options. I v!read you and Kas, Book and Silver are both new, and TUN often dies early.

Which, ok, fair. 

(4) Shining unvotes Ash. Still no idea why. @Shining Silhouette?

FYI that this gets us to:

Quote

TUN (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (2): Kas, Ash
Ash (2): Cinnamon, Xino
Stick (1): Xino
Xino (2): Conq, Mat
Mat (1): Danex
Turtle (1): Wiz
Kas (1): Bookwyrm
Silvereye (1): Stick

AFAICT, a three-way tie. 

Thoughts: Potentially looks a bit good that Xino is fine with a three way tie or considered options instead of hopping. Hopping to Book would've given him a better margin, but I don't know if I want to weight this point strongly because it would have guaranteed Book voting on Xino in retaliation, tying them yet again and giving Xino worse odds that the tie of three.

(5) Wiz unvotes Turtle. Doesn't want to join a train or kill a new player.

(6) Bookwyrm votes Ash for self-pres as Bookwyrm doesn't like being in the tie. V points to Bookwyrm, I feel. E!Bookwyrm should have been counselled by teammates that a three-way tie is no big deal - most Elim teams these days are comfortable with a slight roll of the dice. This point may go out the window if E!Bookwyrm is an E!Smoker or E!Coinshot, maybe E!Mistborn. Then again, self-pres is usually fairly acceptable so this might be the most unsuspicious move Bookwyrm can pull off. IDK, I just don't see this as being super E, because I feel the anxiety seems quite genuine, and that's not the sort of situation an Elim team would be as fussed about. This means: Bookwyrm.

Quote

TUN (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (2): Kas, Ash
Ash (3): Cinnamon, Xino, Bookwyrm
Stick (1): Xino
Xino (2): Conq, Mat
Mat (1): Danex
Silvereye (1): Stick

(7) Ash goes onto Xino for self-pres.

Quote

TUN (1): TUN
Cinnamon (1): Ash
Bookwyrm (1): Kas
Ash (3): Cinnamon, Xino, Bookwyrm
Stick (1): Xino
Xino (3): Conq, Mat, Ash
Mat (1): Danex
Silvereye (1): Stick

And that's about where we are.

Where I'm at:

I went digging to try to see if I could make the Xino thing make more sense to me. Spoiler alert: massive failure, and it's maybe half hour to rollover. I don't particularly feel Ash, I don't really know what to make of Xino. I'm going to take a break and come back to this.

Oh, and slight V points for Illwei.

God, how many times did I get ninjaed...]

[danex]

i'm in class atm (have been all day) and will be til after rollover, so no time to completely catch up on everything, but a quick look over shows that Ash is in the lead with 3 votes. Looks like the ash train consists of:

1. A retaliation vote
2. A self pres vote
3. another self-pres vote

that doesn't look like the best reason for an exe. if i got anything wrong lemme know, again, really rough read through. trying to focus on calc at the same time as this is not easy 

edit: wait no Xino is also in the lead with 3 votes
havn't looked at that train at all, not sure how i feel about that
one sec ill try and figure it out

Edited October 24, 2022 by dannnnnnex

[Kasimir]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Like, sweet Harmony, I don't think this meta argument even bears out in the playdata? And the bigger question: why the hell doesn't Xino defend this? 'Cause like, you know your own playstyle best, so why even let this get off the ground to begin with? It's not something I can make sense of especially given Xino's commitment to staying alive. Damnit but I feel like I've wasted an hour or so of my life just going to check. 

[OOC: Xino. Not insanely confident in this, but the immediate answer to me, even if it's a bad one, is that V!Xino is more likely to point out that argument just makes no sense, and E!Xino might have gone through a self-consciousness sort of thing and not thought to push back hard

It sounds weak to me, but I'm thinking of how an Elim might not be motivated to push back because you just have that moment where you feel caught even if it's for something beyond your control. IDK. 

Because holy Twinings just how I don't even this is not in the playdata just how the frick do you let something take off on a mischaracterisation of your playstyle.

God, am I even convinced? Is there even a way to make sense of this this feels like a reach and God how the hell do I even make sense of this.

If I'm trippin', someone please tell me because I feel trippin'.]

[Ashbringer]

30 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I don't see any particular reasons for Ash to be an elim other than voting in self-preservation a full 2 hours 20 minutes before rollover. It seems like people have locked on to either Ash or Xino far in advance of when it's actually necessary to ensure someone dies. I do think Bookwyrm is more likely evil but don't want to kill a new player D1. TUN being unwilling to vote is at least consistent with his previously expressed opinions so it's not likely an indicator of being an elim.

 

Xino self-presed on me first 

But other than that I agree with these points. Although as much as I would prefer not to die, I like this setup better than the prior one of having 8 or 9 1-vote trains.

[---]

Just now, Kasimir said:

[OOC: RP next round. Woke up after trippy dreams and more pain so I'm going to be asking the doctor for painkillers that do not involve knocking me out and givinf me dreams where I'm tasting the colour yellow and runy egges :/

can i have those dreams all i did was dream that i couldn't talk and then i half awoke and texted my boss that i couldn't speak and therefore couldn't go to work today and then i passed out and woke up later and realized it was a dream and now I'm trying to come up with something because I cant admit to them that it was a dream and now i'm embarassed

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Like, sweet Harmony, I don't think this meta argument even bears out in the playdata? And the bigger question: why the hell doesn't Xino defend this? 'Cause like, you know your own playstyle best, so why even let this get off the ground to begin with? It's not something I can make sense of especially given Xino's commitment to staying alive. Damnit but I feel like I've wasted an hour or so of my life just going to check. 

lol you kept reading to see that I don't like actually believe in what i said there either and I'm not saying it's exactly that every game because there are also a number of games he slanks. If you look though the times (at least earlier on) where he is inactive in the game he's more likely to be an Elim. The more one-liners and responses and reactions instead of being proactive the more likely the person is to be an Elim just generally and xino is an example of that.

[Kasimir]

Just now, Illwei said:

lol you kept reading to see that I don't like actually believe in what i said there either and I'm not saying it's exactly that every game because there are also a number of games he slanks. If you look though the times (at least earlier on) where he is inactive in the game he's more likely to be an Elim. The more one-liners and responses and reactions instead of being proactive the more likely the person is to be an Elim just generally and xino is an example of that.

[OOC: I can buy the proactivity point as I think that's something that happens for E!Mat in some games. IDK, to me, the likelihood thing - still doesn't seem to be borne out in the playdata. I can agree generically that I've seen him put more effort in in some V games but he looked passive as all hell in your last MR and was V. At this point, this likelihood thing seems kind of washy and I'm not sure how much stock to put on it in Xino's case. But anyway, I'm kinda sorta voting on Xino now so IDK if that matters, but didn't you also half-take that back? And you're not voting xino either:

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Honestly I'm not sure how I feel on the xino train. Despite calling him town and then calling him an elim in 2/3 of my posts I don't have a strong read on that, and don't find a strong reason to develop one at this point, with how day has gone. 

IDK, it's awkward as I now lean V on you for reasons that pertain to a different post so it's more ??? than E in my head right now.]

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Xino. Not insanely confident in this, but the immediate answer to me, even if it's a bad one, is that V!Xino is more likely to point out that argument just makes no sense, and E!Xino might have gone through a self-consciousness sort of thing and not thought to push back hard

So wait, your analysis is that the reasons behind the xino train are bad, but since xino didn’t say that, he’s more likely to be elim? Cause that’s odd if you yourself are the one saying the reasons are bad but still vote him

Illwei being like “xino village” “wait never mind for x reasons” “actually x reasons don’t apply” is tripping me up

[Shining Silhouette]

I'm hereee sorry thought I'd be here sooner

What is going on right now I'll try to respond to everyone ASAP

[---]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

 but he looked passive as all hell in your last MR and was V.

This is why we don't create patterns from 1 data point :P.

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Illwei being like “xino village” “wait never mind for x reasons” “actually x reasons don’t apply” is tripping me up

But it's awfully villagery of me, you have to admit :P.

[Kasimir]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

So wait, your analysis is that the reasons behind the xino train are bad, but since xino didn’t say that, he’s more likely to be elim? Cause that’s odd if you yourself are the one saying the reasons are bad but still vote him

Illwei being like “xino village” “wait never mind for x reasons” “actually x reasons don’t apply” is tripping me up

[OOC: That's what's throwing me, honestly. Because how do you make sense of Xino not defending the reasons being bad? I genuinely can't.

I don't see how that's odd though - I'm saying the reasons are bad, and I'm voting him because neither Xino nor anyone else pointed that out, and I don't think that there is a reasonable world in which V!Xino sits on this. As far as I can remember, I'm the only one who kept going "I'm not sure though" in PMs and then did a deep dive.

I'm not fully sold on this, but I can't see V!Xino agreeing with a blatant mischaracterisation of his play. I actually am not sure E!Xino would either, but how else do you explain this? Like, off the top of my head, my immediate memory is LG89 where Illwei was arguing I was hyperconfident and dropped RP early, so likely to be Evil, both of which didn't bear out in my recent play. That was the immediate thing V!me picked up on - that this didn't make sense. Why doesn't Xino call that out? It just doesn't feel right to me.

And yes on Illwei's stance on this confusing me.]

[xinoehp512]

17 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

And the bigger question: why the hell doesn't Xino defend this? 'Cause like, you know your own playstyle best, so why even let this get off the ground to begin with? It's not something I can make sense of especially given Xino's commitment to staying alive.

Huh. You know what, that's... a really good question.  I guess I didn't really take it seriously, because Illwei didn't vote me? Which is kind of silly I guess given that Mat used Illwei's analysis as a reason to vote me.

A likely reason those posts seemed different is because I did them on mobile and mobile is way harder to write posts on. Ditto for last game, where my playstyle was closer to my early posts in the cycle.

[Ashbringer]

I don’t think most Elim teams would be comfortable with a 3-way tie by two votes, especially with self-pres still in play.

Heck, I don’t think most people would be comfortable with that… especially when near double that are online.