Mid-Range Game 57: Helvegen

[|TJ| he/him]

11 hours ago, Archer said:

I accuse Absolutely TJ of being afraid to move their vote during EOD. And I'll note that Bort perfectly fits the profile of elim team member if you suspect they lacked the resources near EoD to pull off the preffered outcome of a mix. 

I'm very static during D1 voting. It's not something I want to do, my playstyle just sorta conforms to a right D1 voting, but it is inherent in my meta. I find someone suspicious during D1, it's gonna take a lot for me to change that vote. I wasn't going to vote on Araris because I had no memory of Araris' posts and no recollection of the reasons for voting on him.

11 hours ago, JNV said:

Voting TJ @|TJ| what was the 'performative' question Stick asked and why did you keep thinking about this specifically instead of going elsewhere with your thoughts what exactly was so hmm about Stick

Okay, to be as clear as possible - the question seemed to serve no purpose, there seemed to be no village motive behind it, it did not feel genuine, but rather an attempt to appear observant. Furthermore, there was no follow up, no acknowledgement, no reply to my response, and no attempt to draw conclusions or further discussions from it. 

10 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

TJ Shade shhh yes I used your old name it's longer and more visible to GMs

To be crystal clear- not voting TJ because of his abstinence from voting at EoD last turn. I think his Stick vote is strange with the perspective of v!Stick, especially since it stuck for so long, and also because of the way he's fixating on the bus, and a little bit of his Archer suspicion which I just don't understand xD But here's the vote and I'm tired, good night.

Okay, first point - your whole post (at least with stuff pertaining to me in this entire post before this conclusion) was tied to Thaid's actions. Thaid poked me. Thaid shifted to Striker. So I'd like it if it didn't impact the way you read posts of my independent actions. Now to talk about them -

• I covered 'vote stuck for so long' part in the above points.
• I see no reason to v read Stick yet. Araris had expressed his interest in being bussed quite early in LG83, which is what rang the bus bells for me. It's not exactly paranoia, it's... quasi-paranoia because it's logical. Everything from this point onwards is pure conjecture but it makes so much sense to me.  Look at it this way, if the Fang was used in any point of time in the game, it's an extra loss to them. Any way you look at it, it's an extra kill, right? So, they decide to negate this extra kill by using a bus. It still gives them control of the narrative, similar to the Fang Sacrifice but achieved by the means of vote, increasing the chance of manipulating the village. Araris steps forth and the bus ensues. Now, the very likelihood of the bus decreases credence of v!Stick, because then, it means votes on Stick were not meant to save Araris because they never meant to save him. If Araris/Stick are e/e, then the question arises, why not bus Stick instead? I'm not certain about e!Stick here, but it does mean that Araris volunteered to take the kill (which is why the previous comment from LG83 struck suspicious to me). Another chance to confuse the village - get trusted by voting on an elim, get trusted by being a counter to an elim. Irrespective of v/e Stick, I'm actually giving high credence to a bus here. Stick should be read independently, and high village weightage to being a counter to an elim should not be given here in my opinion. It's.. yeah logic-based paranoia :P. 

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

My own reading of Archer's logic is: Elims aware fang will go off, so <1> they'll plan for it. As such, the fang will only hurt the elims if <2> something unexpected happens, and the fact they've planned for it leaves them exposed.

@|TJ|, the same question again - where are you now on Archer?

Huh, this is a very simplified version of chain of logic :P. because he proposed/predicted method of plan as well. It's not convoluted per se, but I- I don't think I can explain it clearly but... there's a difference between genuine elim-play prediction and elim train-of-thought seeping into the thread and I feel the difference here. 

I'm about half a page of posts to read and reply away from voting on him :P. 

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Given Araris was an eliminator, do you think there was a bus?

Yes, as is evident from my previous statements. 

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think it makes sense for one and only one of TJ/Thaid to be evil and right now I'm leaning TJ but we'll see I guess.

Recalling my previous points, you logic follows Thaid's actions, not mine. 

55 minutes ago, Archer said:

Unfortunately for v!you, I've got a bunch of solid village reads, so the pressure shifts to the remaining people. If you take out the Araris voters, JNV who had some good reads progression on Mat in our PM, TUN for inactivity, Orlok for the vote retraction, Aman who made a very confident request for everyone to summarize the thread for them that I assigned a light gut read, there really isn't many people left. So I apologize if I'm barking up the wrong tree. I'm down to you, TJ, and Thaid. Although I'd probably bring Aman, Striker, and TUN back into the net fairly easily. 

Archer's been feeling malicious the entire game, but I do believe that v!Archer characteristically would not remove all Araris voters from his pool here. Archer's the one I suspect the most among Araris voters. 

14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm not really against voting Striker I suppose, but I think that it might be a good idea to vote off of the Araris train in general.

*sigh* xD

Also, I'm the (a?) village Elder, if it makes it easier to ascertain my alignment. Reason I came so strong off the gate as anti-C1 Fanger was hoping it'd look like I wasn't the Elder if elims went Elder-hunting. 

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him]

hey! I was quoted a lot here so I'm just going to respond outright here.

I was being chaotic because I was bored. 

my reasons for voting Stick were that I didn't really have time to look through it all.

And I'm not going to be on here a lot, so if you are using this against me, weel here's my reasons.

[Stick. she/her]

20 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

 Furthermore, there was no follow up, no acknowledgement, no reply to my response, and no attempt to draw conclusions or further discussions from it. 

This is true - I found your response satisfactory in the sense that I didn’t feel the need to question it further or comment on it. Like I said, playing the inquisitor a lot of the time it’s a pressure tactic thing. 

Off my PM with Thaid, I think I’m leaning slight vill tentatively 

[Archer he/him]

Until Stick pointed it out, I'd entirely missed that Araris was an Elder. But in light of that, while I'd be open to hearing village Elder counter claims (so long as y'all balance the benefit against the cost of confirming you aren't a Thug), being an Elder isn't necessarily village indicative. The GM secured the mechanic with the e!Elder and after that can be as trolly as they like with the distro. 

I am pretty uncomfortable with the fact that I suspect there's three elims and I'm down to three suspects, which is why I mentioned my second tier suspicions. TUN in particular I'd like to interrogate, or their pinch hitter if they're who requested one. 

The problem with an intentional bus is either Araris confirm's Stick's alignment with their vote, or they controlled the thread enough to move the exe to Araris. It was 4-2-1-1 or so. Why did Araris make it 5 and make the bus harder? And are you saying they had two or three people on the Stick wagon that moved, because otherwise they just got really lucky that a bunch of villagers changed their minds. And why give up the C1 mix and not fang Araris instead to take advantage of the mechanic? 

I'm open to the idea of an elim bussing Araris when forced to by the EOD circumstances, with his blessing given at the start of the game, but the execution seems contrived if it was a planned setup. 

If you assume e!Stick, why not just let it play out. They'll be suspected soon if you don't NK them. 

Also, see last game for examples of v!me open wolfing. :P. According to Illwei, anyway. 

Related note, Striker saying they don't think the wagons were all village is a red flag. It was v-v-e, that's pretty good. There's parallels to TJ saying maybe e!Stick. E-e-v seems unlikely. 

[Mat he/him]

Ok no TJ, Striker

On mobile so I can’t quote specific things but I like your static D1 explanation because it’s true, and I like how you’re sticking to your guns. I’m baffled by those guns, like choosing Archer over Striker (more on that later). The Elder claim is NAI, could be true, could be false, is unprovable until you’re dead.

The more I think about it the more Striker makes sense which means I should probably reread my post where I resulted in a light v read of Striker, and Orlok’s post where he came to the same conclusion xD

I am side-eyeing TJ for choosing Archer, since he told me that he thought the most likely bussers were Archer and Striker and at least for me one of those seems a lot more obvious right now :P. I’m also confused why he didn’t put Stick on that list after ‘seeing no reason to v read her’ but as much as I think his thought process is real weird it fits within itself which is important.

Like Archer, I can buy a bus to some extent, but I don’t think the elims would go for it late turn for fear of looking like they’re hammering. Hence my Striker vote. I don’t really buy the elims killing one of their own via exe on purpose, because for them a Fang death is better than an exe death. My bet is that the elims played D1 basically the same as any other game.

[|TJ| he/him]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I am side-eyeing TJ for choosing Archer, since he told me that he thought the most likely bussers were Archer and Striker and at least for me one of those seems a lot more obvious right now :P. I’m also confused why he didn’t put Stick on that list after ‘seeing no reason to v read her’ but as much as I think his thought process is real weird it fits within itself which is important.

I'm deferring Striker stuff for tomorrow because I wanna re-read D1 to get a clearer idea of him, Striker is on my list based on the stuff I read from other players this cycle. Archer is my personal assessment, which takes priority. I didn't mention Stick because there's no way to distinguish a bus vote from a self-preservation vote in the situation she voted. 

[xinoehp512 he/him]

19 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I might end up on Thaid, but I want to take a page out of our GM’s book by doing a full vote analysis before I vote. (That might come tonight, but maybe tomorrow morning.) Thaid’s mirrored opinion and Araris shifting the vote further from Thaid are two decent pieces of evidence though.

@xinoehp512, what’s your reasoning for your Archer placement?

I think I felt like he was defending Thaidakar. Especially with what he was saying about Araris being the designated sacrifice, which wouldn't make sense if Thaidakar was elim. Overall, e/e Thaidakar and Archer. If Thaidakar flips village I think I'd trust Archer more.

And maybe I'm just being dumb. Archer did vote Araris after all. I haven't really taken a close look at that.

4 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@xinoehp512, same question.

Good vibes. 

4 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@xinoehp512, accepting that you didn't provide explanation for any other read, can you explain what your decision making process was on putting Araris in your "bad bucket"?

Because he was arguing that using the fang would be detrimental to the village, which seemed like something an elim would say.

 

Rebucketing, Aman's analysis reads village to me.

TJ's claim seems suspicious. And I don't like his persistence on Stick with the context of e!Araris. Plus, something just feels off.

Also I'm feeling bad vibes from Bort.

Good Bucket

Spoiler

 

Mat

Stick

Orlok

JNV

Aman

 

 

Bad Bucket

Spoiler

 

Thaidakar^

TJ^

Archer
Striker

Bort

Novel*

 

By my count, the votes are:

Thaid (2): Xino, Striker
TJ (2): Archer, JNV
Bort (1): Orlok
Striker (2): Stick, Matrim
Archer (1): TJ
 

 

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him]

aight I probably should vote. I do think striker looks a little sus, though I'm not fully sure. 

when do y'all think we should try a dragon fang? (unless we already did and I missed it) I think sooner rather than later, probably this cycle rather then next. cause I think the slims would probably try to take out the elders.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said:

when do y'all think we should try a dragon fang? (unless we already did and I missed it) I think sooner rather than later, probably this cycle rather then next. cause I think the slims would probably try to take out the elders.

This view almost the opposite of what made me initially vote you, which is strange. However:

Quote

Araris Valerian/Alain Stern was executed! He was a Darkfriend Elder! The Dragon's Fang mechanic has been deactivated! (Am I prophetic, or what?)

Pays to read the writeup  (And the rules)

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

This view almost the opposite of what made me initially vote you, which is strange. However:

Pays to read the writeup  (And the rules)

oh, LOL. was their only one elder? I thought there were going to be more.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

1 minute ago, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said:

oh, LOL. was their only one elder? I thought there were going to be more.

Genuinely don’t believe this level of misunderstanding the rules is possible to fake. 

Thaidakar looks pretty firmly village from this, to me.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said:

oh, LOL. was their only one elder? I thought there were going to be more.

Dragon Fang is deactivated once we sucessfully exe an elim, which we did D1. No Fanging required! :D. Elders have nothing to do with why it was deactivated.

Pays to read the rules :P.

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him]

Just now, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Genuinely don’t believe this level of misunderstanding the rules is possible to fake. 

Thaidakar looks pretty firmly village from this, to me.

yeah I need to go back and read da rules

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Dragon Fang is deactivated once we sucessfully exe an elim, which we did D1. No Fanging required! :D. Elders have nothing to do with why it was deactivated.

Pays to read the rules :P.

RIIIIIIGHT! 

[Kasimir he/him]

This just in:

Mat and Orlok are now my Rules Bros.

This is ironic given how much Mat made me read the rules to him C1 but nevertheless, my appreciation :|

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Hey, I got sick last two days and didn't have the brainpower. I'm going to read through c1, will post my thoughts then read c2.

[JNV]

10 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I mean, I intentionally left my vote blank to see what would happen. A little surprised you're the only who said anything about it, JNV. I mostly made that vote because I feel like one of the other trains from D1 might also be an elim.

I get it but also Thaidakar feels very noraml its really too bad Thaidakar's normal is radiating evilness like strong perfume

10 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

If the Fang hadn’t gone off last cycle and we hadn’t exe’d an elim, surely we would’ve used it C2, no? So the outcome would’ve been the same either way.

the fang is way better for elims than the exe besides bus credit and besides bus credit only really works if people dont think its a bus and if they meant to bus and I still dont think it was a bus in the first place honestly 

10 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I was focusing less on where he ended up and more where he had left- if e!Thaid voted e!TJ, he'd want to get off eventually and it fits with mirrorAraris!Thaid to match TJ's vote in that scenario. Later though I ultimately decided those three being evil together doesn't really make sense because they entirely composed the Stick train.

Yeah thaidakar and TJ mutually exclusive elims methinks only way it works out and honestly they feel so scummy I kinda want to say Thaidakar xor TJ elim (exclusive or by the way for non engineers)

8 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

~~~~* Brief intermission here to address Araris' post where he votes on Striker. The interaction that takes place here is why I've voted on Striker - because I just can't make sense of why Araris would do this. Striker had zero votes on him at this point, and as Mat points out later, Mat had a greater number of people in his village reads list (same reason why Araris had found Striker suspicious). I was the leading vote at this point, so why did Araris go out of his way try to pursue a different target when no teammates were in danger? *~~~~~

Ok but why would Araris do this if evil Striker that just makes Striker look funny also why doesnt this make Matrim look funny after all people have told me Araris usually stays on the person for C1 why did they move off specifically matrim (dont worry I dont really suspect Matrim there was a brief Tunnel with Friends but its pretty much caved in at this point just paranoia) I get this is a hmm thing to do it is why you killed him but is this any less wonky in the evil Striker universe does it really make sense I know its easy to say "oh this is weird so its evil" but does it make any more sense as evil I think not but if you think so please explain to a poor confused person

8 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hmm, that was the interaction that made me mark Araris/Striker as not v/e so that's interesting :P. My view was, like- yes it's a weird move for Araris to make but it would be weird for anyone, not just Striker, and Striker's reaction felt over-the-top to be distancing. Reading this makes me reconsider, especially in light of this next point.

Um you say oh I marked this as not good and evil and youre saying your reconsidering that so are you saying that it is good evil or did you misspeak 

7 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Okay, to be as clear as possible - the question seemed to serve no purpose, there seemed to be no village motive behind it, it did not feel genuine, but rather an attempt to appear observant. Furthermore, there was no follow up, no acknowledgement, no reply to my response, and no attempt to draw conclusions or further discussions from it. 

Ok look I get the Stick vote now thanks really appreciate it but I think Ive dug myself into a tunnel on you that is only getting deeper mostly because I dont think its a bus 

7 hours ago, |TJ| said:

• I see no reason to v read Stick yet. Araris had expressed his interest in being bussed quite early in LG83, which is what rang the bus bells for me. It's not exactly paranoia, it's... quasi-paranoia because it's logical. Everything from this point onwards is pure conjecture but it makes so much sense to me.  Look at it this way, if the Fang was used in any point of time in the game, it's an extra loss to them. Any way you look at it, it's an extra kill, right? So, they decide to negate this extra kill by using a bus. It still gives them control of the narrative, similar to the Fang Sacrifice but achieved by the means of vote, increasing the chance of manipulating the village. Araris steps forth and the bus ensues. Now, the very likelihood of the bus decreases credence of v!Stick, because then, it means votes on Stick were not meant to save Araris because they never meant to save him. If Araris/Stick are e/e, then the question arises, why not bus Stick instead? I'm not certain about e!Stick here, but it does mean that Araris volunteered to take the kill (which is why the previous comment from LG83 struck suspicious to me). Another chance to confuse the village - get trusted by voting on an elim, get trusted by being a counter to an elim. Irrespective of v/e Stick, I'm actually giving high credence to a bus here. Stick should be read independently, and high village weightage to being a counter to an elim should not be given here in my opinion. It's.. yeah logic-based paranoia :P. 

Where we differ on Stick is that you think there was a bus they planned on a bus from the beginning and wouldnt go for an alternate even if it could avoid the bus and in that world yeah sure but... I dont think there was a bus and I dont think we can agree so long as we differ on that point which kinda sucks honestly you have interesting logic but its all founded on this one point of contention

Ok let me think about the bus world so theres actually two bus worlds one planned from the start one getting credit last second in the first world this explains why Araris did that wonky vote switch then another world split either Stick was the perpetrator or Stick was the patsy if the perpetrator then yeah kinda by definition evil if the other then Archer or Striker come off looking worse. Other world branch the hopper Matrim Striker look worse

Ok honestly this hasnt really done anything to change my mind on the bus point if youd like to talk me through why exactly you think theres a bus beyond just 'fang bad' Id appreciate it cause the fang is strictly better than the bus ignoring social bits

In my world the non bus world Stick is basically confirned good cause if thye were evil just stay on Thaidakar. If evil Stick, then evil Thaidakar. However Thaidakar vote on Stick was what pushed them to danger zone in the first place. If evil Thaidakar then good stick. Stick good. Proof by contradiction. Probably commiting like three logic sins but oh well it made sense in my head

Then since in this hypothetical world its not a bus the people pushing the bus theory are most suspicious (cough TJ cough) and then the trouble is the toher peole pushing the bus are the would be bussers which feels weird

I also suspect TJ cause of their "oh Archer was plotting elim bits" point but then TJ was also plotting elim bits earlier and no one batted an eye so its kinda hypocritical at best so yeah Im sticking with TJ unless someone can truly convince me it was a bus besides theres probably at least one nonbusser in a bus world

Ok now thinking abotu process of eliminating this cause given my assumptions theres a lot of good people to not think about

Players rn are Thaidakar The Unknwn Novel xinoeph Matrim Orlok Amanuensis Archer JNV Striker Stick Bort TJ

taking out Araris voters plus me leaves Thaidakar The Unknown Novel xinoehp Orlok Amaneusnis Bort TJ

Taking out my good reads leaves Thaidakar The Unknown Novel xinoehp Bort TJ

Taking out The Unknown Novel cause with 3-4 elims at least one besides Araris must been around leaves Thaidakar xinoehp Bort TJ

Ordering from most to least evil is TJ Thaidakar Bort xinoehp

At least one of these people is evil in any world and honestly I just dont really have much on Bort or xinoehp in a planned bus world maybe them but I dont know if its a planned bus world honestly I feel like Ive fallen deeper into the tunnel with the help of the shovel called logic and the other shovel called rational thought but theyre both liars secretly and theyre actually called logical fallacies and paranoia

Im just going to go see you later have a good night Ill be around if someone has questions but for now bye

[Mat he/him]

6 minutes ago, JNV said:

Um you say oh I marked this as not good and evil and youre saying your reconsidering that so are you saying that it is good evil or did you misspeak 

Initially I read it as v/v but in light of comments from Orlok and Stick I reconsidered.

Your PoE with TJ almost makes me want to move back because I don’t really disagree with any decisions you made in taking people out but I do think that TJ and Striker have e/e potential and my personal read of TJ is definitely better (better as in more vil).

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Archer

Stick and Thaid conf good

xino likely good, same for Orlok

JNV and Bort probably okay, maybe not

Aman? idk

Mat and TJ 

Probably won't have a chance to change my vote before rollover, besides maybe 5 hours before or so. I have a hell of a day tomorrow.

[Stick. she/her]

Thaid, TUN, Xino, Mat, Orlok, Aman, Archer, JNV, Striker, Stick, Bort, TJ

Green are village reads, blue are mild village reads. That leaves: Striker, TJ, Archer, JNV, Aman. This list is more-or-less ordered from stronger suspicious to milder suspicions. Took TUN out for lack of content to go off of. 

[Bort he/him]

So, this is where I'm at right now...

Stick and Thaid I'm fairly sure are village. Stick from his posts, and Thaid due to the rules clarification needed.

Mat, JNV, TJ, and Orlok I think are village. They have done some decent analysis posts, although I do think we could do with seeing more from Orlok, as I only remember seeing that one massive post from him.

Xino and Striker, possibly village?

Archer - Definitely highest in my suspicions list right now, although I freely admit that might have something to do with how they have been misrepresenting whatever I've said this game, and they haven't explained why.

TUN and Aman I think we could do with hearing more from so can't really say too much about them.

 

So, my current best guess is Archer, along with likely two of Xino, TUN, Aman, or Striker. Out of these, I'd say I suspect Striker the least. 

 

Current Vote Count:

Thaid (1) - Stick (1), Xino, Striker (1)

TJ (2) - Archer, JNV, Mat (1)

Bort (1) - Orlok

Striker (2) - Stick (2), Mat (2)

Archer (3) - TJ, Striker (2), Bort

[Kasimir he/him]

Heads-Up:

I am fighting off a migraine. If the pain gets unbearable, I will take my strong painkillers, but these have a tendency to knock me out quite a bit. I'll set a bunch of alarms but there is no guarantee I'll wake up in time to do rollover. This is what is going to happen:

Devo has placed a lock on the thread. (Thank you!) I ask all of you to please respect the lock and stop posting past rollover (0100hrs SGT / GMT+8.) 

In the best possible world, my migraine either goes away, or I wake up in time to do rollover. Everything proceeds as normal, and everything and everyone is fine. (Moderately high credence this will happen.)

In the worst possible world, the painkillers knock me out and I wake up at around 0230hrs SGT or later, which I judge eats a bit too far into the proper cycle for comfort. If this is the case, I will ask Devo to unlock the thread and go for an extended rollover. In the extended rollover, I will allow RP and memes but absolutely nothing game relevant. No further orders or votes will be accepted, you will not be allowed to use PMs, and game discussion cannot happen. The next cycle will then be posted at the correct timing the next day.

Pray the migraine dissolves or I wake up on time because that's easiest for everyone. :eyes:

Edited March 29, 2022 by Kasimir

[Bort he/him]

Feel better Kas.

[xinoehp512 he/him]

Hmm. I'd rather TJ get exed than Archer. Doesn't look like Thaidakar is up for the chopping block today.

[Mat he/him]

I paranoid Archer as much as the next guy but I have this question for all the current Archer voters- Why go for Archer over Striker? For me, if it’s just about the bus, the situation around Striker makes much more sense and the only people I’ve seen comment on it are Stick and I. If it’s not just about the bus, then what? (Not you TJ, I know your stance )

If Striker flips e then Bort moves down

[Bort he/him]

Why Striker over Archer?

Or am I the only one who feels like Archer is twisting everything I say?

That's why I'm voting Archer this cycle. It feels too convoluted to be innocent, although I don't see the point behind it.