Mid-Range Game 57: Helvegen

[Stick. she/her]

4 hours ago, Bort said:

So, my current best guess is Archer, along with likely two of Xino, TUN, Aman, or Striker. Out of these, I'd say I suspect Striker the least. 

you sir have been demoted from blue.  I agree with Mat that if Striker flips E, I would be a lot more suspicious of you.

1 hour ago, xinoehp512 said:

Hmm. I'd rather TJ get exed than Archer. Doesn't look like Thaidakar is up for the chopping block today.

What about Striker?

49 minutes ago, Bort said:

Or am I the only one who feels like Archer is twisting everything I say?

I definitely see what you're saying, and it's part of the reason I've got Archer in my top three suspicions - but for now I'd much rather see Striker flip.

edit:

Oh and also, to everyone saying Orlok is nearly conf good - why? Is it just his vote retraction from last cycle?

Edited March 29, 2022 by _Stick_

[Mat he/him]

28 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Oh and also, to everyone saying Orlok is nearly conf good - why? Is it just his vote retraction from last cycle?

Yes- it was tied with you and Araris before Orlok retracted. e!Orlok stays on you unless you’re also evil and preferred over Araris for some reason.

[Stick. she/her]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Yes- it was tied with you and Araris before Orlok retracted. e!Orlok stays on you unless you’re also evil and preferred over Araris for some reason.

Okay but - hear me out. If we're open to speculating a bus, why does Orlok get a pass for letting Araris die? Sure, e!Orlok didn't actively participate in the potential bus, but he still played a crucial part in it. Like I've said before, if the Fang was gonna kill one elim either way (unavoidable, given e!Elder), bussing a teammate is possibly the better case scenario for the elims.

[Archer he/him]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

Okay but - hear me out. If we're open to speculating a bus, why does Orlok get a pass for letting Araris die? Sure, e!Orlok didn't actively participate in the potential bus, but he still played a crucial part in it. Like I've said before, if the Fang was gonna kill one elim either way (unavoidable, given e!Elder), bussing a teammate is possibly the better case scenario for the elims.

I think it's because e!they was a more active voter and v!they is known for retracting if they aren't sure. Easy enough to fake, but at least they did something. I still believe the elims were committed to a Stick exe, as seen by TJ's vote, with the backup CW being Thaid, as seen by Bort or Xino's, then it looks like Striker was laying the groundwork to move but held his ground because he was forced to when the other wagons collapsed. 

The votes fit very nicely into a TJ-Striker-Bort team right composition and I've got zero incentive to move mine now. 

[|TJ| he/him]

19 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

TJ's claim seems suspicious. And I don't like his persistence on Stick with the context of e!Araris. Plus, something just feels off.

Why? There's been no counter (or rather, additional) claims, so if you think I'm evil, then do you believe there's no village Elder? 

2 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

Hmm. I'd rather TJ get exed than Archer. Doesn't look like Thaidakar is up for the chopping block today.

It's not just between me and Archer. What do you think about Striker?

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

(Not you TJ, I know your stance )

*sigh* too busy today, couldn't back-read :/

16 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Okay but - hear me out. If we're open to speculating a bus, why does Orlok get a pass for letting Araris die? Sure, e!Orlok didn't actively participate in the potential bus, but he still played a crucial part in it. Like I've said before, if the Fang was gonna kill one elim either way (unavoidable, given e!Elder), bussing a teammate is possibly the better case scenario for the elims.

Yup, if the bus was decided around that time, [Stick's alignment irrespective here] Orlok would have to retract from Stick in order to make sure the bus on Araris went through. 

I'm so confused with my reads now, my only village read is Bort >> 

Village - Bort, maaaybe JNV?
??? - Thaid, TUN
*sigh* let's call this the paranoia tier - Mat, Stick, Orlok
Evil - Archer, Striker, Xino

7 minutes ago, Archer said:

I think it's because e!they was a more active voter and v!they is known for retracting if they aren't sure.

Can you recall an example of this? I don't recall them voting and retracting to a no-vote during D1 at all. 

7 minutes ago, Archer said:

I still believe the elims were committed to a Stick exe, as seen by TJ's vote

Already treating me like a confirmed elim and like it's a foregone conclusion shows not having an open mind and MLing mentality. 

Edit: Might not make it to rollover, so giving a caution here if I die, don't leave out Araris voters out of your PoE for solely that reason, please. 

Edited March 29, 2022 by |TJ|

[Bort he/him]

6 minutes ago, Archer said:

The votes fit very nicely into a TJ-Striker-Bort team right composition and I've got zero incentive to move mine now. 

Really? You do realise that all three of these names are ALL voting for you, right?

That seems like a really stupid thing for the elims to do. All vote for the same person.

[Archer he/him]

Just now, Bort said:

Really? You do realise that all three of these names are ALL voting for you, right?  That seems like a really stupid thing for the elims to do. All vote for the same person.

well I was thinking that, but I wasn't going to say it out loud... :P. 

I figured it was a case of the exe is trending towards killing an elim, at which point the win probability dips dramatically. 2:8 is much worse than 3:7 with an outnumber wincon. 

5 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Treating me like a confirmed elim and like it's a foregone conclusion shows not having an open mind and MLing mentality. 

The most logical alternative to defending Araris is they committed to a bus of Araris. So Stick is evil because Araris distanced from them and they voted on him in return. But I wouldn't join you on that one. Then as Mat has said, what's the difference between me and Striker? Araris had the weird move from Mat to Striker, surely there was a reason, right? 

[xinoehp512 he/him]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

What about Striker?

I sus TJ more than Striker, too.

[Bort he/him]

6 minutes ago, Archer said:

well I was thinking that, but I wasn't going to say it out loud... :P. 

I figured it was a case of the exe is trending towards killing an elim, at which point the win probability dips dramatically. 2:8 is much worse than 3:7 with an outnumber wincon. 

Is this you admitting to being an elim?

After all, you were the one looking to be lynched, until Xino moved their vote onto TJ.

So, if the elims have moved their votes to protect someone... That someone must have been you.

[Mat he/him]

36 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Okay but - hear me out. If we're open to speculating a bus, why does Orlok get a pass for letting Araris die? Sure, e!Orlok didn't actively participate in the potential bus, but he still played a crucial part in it. Like I've said before, if the Fang was gonna kill one elim either way (unavoidable, given e!Elder), bussing a teammate is possibly the better case scenario for the elims.

I thought we were theorizing an accidental bus. We're voting Striker, and the entire bus case on him is that he voted Araris early for distancing and then when he wanted to retract, he had no room to. I don't think the elims wanted a bus, because they much prefer a Fang death over an elim death. They'd want a misexe, just like any other elim team, because then the elim that dies (which they get to control just as much as if they were bussing) gets to stay in the doc. Araris didn't get to stay in the doc. If the elim team purposely bussed Araris, I think they made a miscalculation.

Sure, there's some value in the clears from a hard bus at the beginning, but there's a reason that it's not a strategy used by normal elim teams. I don't think they'd do it here just because there's a Fang. I think they'd take the death that keeps a teammate in the doc.

[Stick. she/her]

I just realised rollover is nearly upon us

vote count anyone???

[Bort he/him]

I've been keeping track...

Thaid (0) - Stick (1), Xino (1), Striker (1)
TJ (3) - Archer, JNV, Mat (1), Xino (2)
Bort (1) - Orlok
Striker (2) - Stick (2), Mat (2)
Archer (3) - TJ, Striker (2), Bort

It's half an hour to rollover, right?
 

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

I just realised rollover is nearly upon us

vote count anyone???

I mean we have an hour and a half but sure (@Bort)

• TJ (3): Archer, JNV, xino
• Bort (1): Orlok
• Striker (2): Stick, Matrim
• Archer (3): TJ, Striker, Bort

Ninja'd by Bort but his matches mine so that's good

Stick, does my explanation of why I don't think the bus was intentional make sense?

[Bort he/him]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I mean we have an hour and a half but sure (@Bort)

And of course daylight savings time would mean I get it wrong, lol.

Just as I thought I was getting the hang of it

Edit: 1701 Posts! This is my Enterprise post!!! 

Edited March 29, 2022 by Bort

[Stick. she/her]

1 minute ago, Bort said:

I've been keeping track...

Thaid (0) - Stick (1), Xino (1), Striker (1)
TJ (3) - Archer, JNV, Mat (1), Xino (2)
Bort (1) - Orlok
Striker (2) - Stick (2), Mat (2)
Archer (3) - TJ, Striker (2), Bort

It's half an hour to rollover, right?
 

thank youu

no, rollover is in approximately 1.5 hours from now

Some unorganised thoughts:

• Archer/TJ not E/E
• Striker/Orlok potentially E/E (Orlok has questioned Striker and sussed him a bit in his analysis but his vote is elsewhere)
• Striker/Archer potentially E/E

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Stick, does my explanation of why I don't think the bus was intentional make sense?

I can see what you mean - and I think I mostly agree with it. The problem is, Orlok retracted his vote at a suspicious time. Like, Araris had already accumulated four votes by then, and rollover was in about 1 hour and 20 minutes. So I can see his retraction being a last-minute decision. Also, I should mention why I think Orlok retracted his vote in the first place - he picked up on my not-so-subtle hints in-thread claiming to be an Elder. He PM'd me about it and I confirmed it. But you have to ask - why did he believe it? It makes sense for e!Orlok to unvote me then and gain my trust, because keeping a village elder alive does not harm the elim team in any way, given that one of their own was an Elder.

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

The problem is, Orlok retracted his vote at a suspicious time. Like, Araris had already accumulated four votes by then, and rollover was in about 1 hour and 20 minutes. So I can see his retraction being a last-minute decision.

I mean, wasn't his retraction at the end of a giant multiquote of your posts that ultimately led to his retraction? :P. That doesn't really look last minute to me.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

thank youu

no, rollover is in approximately 1.5 hours from now

Some unorganised thoughts:

• Archer/TJ not E/E
• Striker/Orlok potentially E/E (Orlok has questioned Striker and sussed him a bit in his analysis but his vote is elsewhere)
• Striker/Archer potentially E/E

I can see what you mean - and I think I mostly agree with it. The problem is, Orlok retracted his vote at a suspicious time. Like, Araris had already accumulated four votes by then, and rollover was in about 1 hour and 20 minutes. So I can see his retraction being a last-minute decision. Also, I should mention why I think Orlok retracted his vote in the first place - he picked up on my not-so-subtle hints in-thread claiming to be an Elder. He PM'd me about it and I confirmed it. But you have to ask - why did he believe it? It makes sense for e!Orlok to unvote me then and gain my trust, because keeping a village elder alive does not harm the elim team in any way, given that one of their own was an Elder.

I haven’t had time to address all I want to, and am working on a longer post, but just want to jump in on this. My retraction on you had nothing to do with your elder claim, Stick. I village read you from your post, tonally, and from what you were doing towards the end of the cycle. I did believe your claim, because I thought I’d found you claiming it in an earlier post, and you confirmed it in a PM, but you being an elder had nothing to do with my reading you as village, which was why I retracted from you.

[Stick. she/her]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I mean, wasn't his retraction at the end of a giant multiquote of your posts that ultimately led to his retraction? :P. That doesn't really look last minute to me.

yep, here's that post - it's not LITERALLY last minute since there was over an hour left of the cycle still but you know what I mean xD

But anyway let's not get side tracked - we can get back to this conversation later cuz right now I think we should probably do something about those tied votes

2 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I haven’t had time to address all I want to, and am working on a longer post, but just want to jump in on this. My retraction on you had nothing to do with your elder claim, Stick. I village read you from your post, tonally, and from what you were doing towards the end of the cycle. I did believe your claim, because I thought I’d found you claiming it in an earlier post, and you confirmed it in a PM, but you being an elder had nothing to do with my reading you as village, which was why I retracted from you.

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmm well it's possible I'm just being ultra-paranoid at the moment. But also, your vote is on Bort at the moment (and the only one there) - would you consider moving to Striker so that we can secure an exe?

[Bort he/him]

Moving to Striker wouldn't secure a lynch. It would put all three possible lynchees on three votes each.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmm well it's possible I'm just being ultra-paranoid at the moment. But also, your vote is on Bort at the moment (and the only one there) - would you consider moving to Striker so that we can secure an exe?

All moving to Striker accomplishes is making the 2 way tie a 3 way tie xD

I obviously prefer Striker but honestly am fine with TJ or Archer as well. My reads on TJ and Archer have sort of tipped in extremity in both cases, and both currently sit around Null so idk

[Stick. she/her]

oh yeah adjskld

but tbh as long as Striker is in the exe somewhere, I wouldnt terribly mind this three-way tie. Because like I've said before, I suspect Archer and TJ too.

[|TJ| he/him]

8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

All moving to Striker accomplishes is making the 2 way tie a 3 way tie xD

If anyone moves to Striker, I'll move to him, obviously. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

yep, here's that post - it's not LITERALLY last minute since there was over an hour left of the cycle still but you know what I mean xD

But anyway let's not get side tracked - we can get back to this conversation later cuz right now I think we should probably do something about those tied votes

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmm well it's possible I'm just being ultra-paranoid at the moment. But also, your vote is on Bort at the moment (and the only one there) - would you consider moving to Striker so that we can secure an exe?

I would prefer to stay on Bort, whose posts I’m working through as part of my next long-post.

I maintain Archer, Stick, Matrim, Thaidakar as my cleared village pool. I’m trying to work out my read on TJ. If I am to move, it’ll be to one of TJ and Striker, although I’m more open to forming a new view on TJ, as any argument for Striker for me is the same one I ran through yesterday, and I don’t know why I’d now come to a differing conclusion. 

[Stick. she/her]

20 hours ago, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said:

 

aight I probably should vote. I do think striker looks a little sus

 

Hi friend  Do you think you suspect him enough to vote on him today? Or either of TJ/Archer, if you prefer?

[Archer he/him]

Nobody else feels like voting, huh. Okay, plot twist: Striker TJ