Stick. Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 YESSSSS no elim kill?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted March 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 1 minute ago, _Stick_ said: YESSSSS no elim kill?? I forgot to add it >> Sent her the dead doc too, whoops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrikerEZ Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 @Matrim's Dice I'm side eyeing you. What was this about me not being elim unless you and Araris were? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 Ok, that’s nice. Knowing at least one elim was pushing against Fanging early is good to know, makes me wonder how shared that opinion was among the elims. Kinda am tinfoiling Thaid used that view because Araris was using it, but idk. Looking at votes from EoD and before should be pretty useful; I’m resisting the urge to clear Stick and Archer but you know >> Ngl I appreciate the Illwei kill since I was tinfoiling e!her in my head, not enough to bring up or really to be a concern but now I don’t have to worry about that :P. Just now, StrikerEZ said: @Matrim's Dice I'm side eyeing you. What was this about me not being elim unless you and Araris were? smh xD I’d like to think that was a view Araris wanted to be pushed, and I did my best to show it’s false by ruthlessly voting for him late in the turn :P. That being said, you as the earliest voter are probably the most likely bus candidate. You were on at EoD and could have jumped off for the tie you were suggesting, but that’d have potentially looked sus and could be why e!you stayed on Araris. What was the me/Araris e/e thing about again? I don’t remember despite being the one who kept bringing it up :P. Likely won’t be on for fourish hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 Missed this C1, so Reminder that you can PM me or ping me about any concerns or problems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bort Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 Oh wow! Good job guys. I head off to run a game thinking Thaid or Stick would get it, and get back to see everything has changed. So, what was it caused the Araris bus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stick. Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 (edited) @The Unknown Novel you were online during last cycle but chose not to post - were you the fanged elim? update on reads is that I've definitely grown less suspicious of xino - told Mat in PMs towards the end of last turn, doesnt have anything to do with the flip. The more I read and reread their posts and they seem to make me lean village. The fact that they were okay with voting alongside me might be a village thing? Though in light of Araris' flip, I think there might be some significance in the fact that xino 'forgot' to assign him a read. 59 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: I’m resisting the urge to clear Stick and Archer but you know >> If Archer is a villager, it means that Araris did not distance himself at all from any teammates the entire cycle, unless Striker is E. Or you are. But I mean Araris brought up both of those last two scenarios as possibilities, so I dont know what to think of that. Araris switched over from Striker to me when the votes were: Quote VC: Stick(4): TJ, Orlok, Xino, Thaid Thaid(3): Mat, Stick, Bort Bort(1): Archer Striker(1): Araris Araris(1): Striker And of course that brought it up to a tie between Thaid and I. Based off just this, my suspicion for Thaid has increased. That said, I can definitely see an elim tying votes between two villagers because- why not? They'd love extra chaos, plus everyone wants to exe the counter wagon in the next cycle. >> Edited March 27, 2022 by _Stick_ 'to' a tie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted March 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 28 minutes ago, _Stick_ said: @The Unknown Novel you were online during last cycle but chose not to post - were you the fanged elim? Thanks for the reminder. Truly my GMing skills have grown rusty :| I have posted a reminder that TUN is now on inactivity notice. A failure to post for this cycle will get him executed or replaced on the next cycle. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrikerEZ Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said: You were on at EoD and could have jumped off for the tie you were suggesting, but that’d have potentially looked sus and could be why e!you stayed on Araris. I was cooking lunch with Bip at the end of the last cycle and couldn't remember where the votes were and didn't want to move mine around. Also I thought things were still tied for some reason. 1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said: What was the me/Araris e/e thing about again? I don’t remember despite being the one who kept bringing it up :P. Something about why he would've wanted to switch off you onto me for a reason that was clearly reaching onto me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Bort said: So, what was it caused the Araris bus? Elim slip? :eyes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archer Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 Rollcall question: what did everyone end up submitting as their Fang vote? I voted no. Araris came up with the mechanic so he might have felt some guilt about asking another person to sacrifice themselves for it. He’s fairly selfless and would have been one of the better assets to have in an advisory role in an elim doc. This isn’t uncharacteristic of them, but he also kept his suspicions fairly close to his chest, not posting a reads list or making loose accusations. There’s enough there that I think we must assume Araris was the designated sacrifice. At the time Araris voted Stick, it pushed them into 5 vote territory, with the next best train having 2. I think this is village indicative of Stick, and implies confidence in the stability of the Stick train that obviously didn’t pan out. That’s key, because we can guess that the most stable votes would be the evil ones, and the people who undercut the train Araris’ hoped would win, and therefore his evil vote being revealed to have been on it wouldn’t matter because the victim is dead, should be looked at positively. That gives me a village read on Xino, and worse vibes from TJ who didn’t immediately move after Araris’ vote. Striker is mlerp because they asked for a VC, which implies willingness to move. If Araris is going to be Fanged, would e!Striker say this, “Okay, I think this is accurate now. I was going to potentially switch to Thaid, but now Araris is up for the exe as well and I'm half tempted to secure an exe on Stick. Or just find a way to tie it between Thaid and Stick”? I’m genuinely torn, because Striker might have been distancing initially, then forced to stay put when the Araris wagon came in. But also, why not bus better? Mat being the third vote on Araris improves my read on them. Something about them is off, but I’d rather hit say TJ than Mat. I understand Striker camping for the tie potential, but TJ is obviously around and he keeps not voting for Araris. EoD looked pretty quiet, I’m wondering what the elims were planning since they were going to lose Araris either way, the possibility of bussing was all too visible, and their sacrifice was offline. I think that’s the kind of situation they’d freeze in. Or maybe just retract and hold their breath like Orlok did. Araris poked Mat, and then moved from him to Striker in a way I clocked as suspicious. So that makes me wonder what was going on there because Striker stayed very stable on Araris. Illwei looks like an opportunistic low info kill. They had two posts, which meant this round was a good time to kill them before they became a threat. Evil reads were: TJ, TUN, Araris, JNV, Bort Good Bucket Stick, Xino, Mat, Thaid Bad Bucket TJ, Bort, Striker?, Orlok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted March 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 GM Announcement: I have a player who has requested a pinch-hitter. If you're reading this and not currently playing MR57 (or having died in that game), and would like to volunteer as tribute, please drop me a PM and I'll see to making the swap. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JNV Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 When Kai returned from their wandering (to hide from the past that could never be escaped), they found death waiting at the door. Water. Of all possible deaths, it had to be water. Memories like shards of glass flashed through their mind briefly, but they continued onwards. ("You were always my favourite sibling," their sister said as she pushed them out of the boat.) Kai had not lived in Helgen for very long, but they knew of Alain Stern. Helgen born and raised, well-established in the community, the perfect gentleman. Polite to the bitter end, they'd heard. They'd met him once, a passing on the road one late night. He'd tipped his hat, and they'd scurried by, running from their sins. What was he doing on that dark, moonless night? How many spirits haunted his path? ("In my defense," their sister said, "you weren't supposed to live.") Hi Im back hopefully wont be gone for all day again but who knows honesntly So araris was evil. Cool. I guess no fangs for us. Good work the sudden surge at th end there is kinda wierd honestly Ill look at that in a minute but first I dont really think all the darkfriends would say they agree on the fang stuff easy distancing you know so let me just take a peek at the tallies on that opinion Fang C1. Striker, Bort, Stick Fang C2-3. Matrim, TJ, Illwei, xinoep, Araris Fang later. Orlok (? didnt really give a time frame but strong againt C1) Hmm I guess Im shading Striker Bort Orlok but then again I really liked Orloks posts and opinions so maybe no shade for Orlok reconsider later no need to lock opinions Votes last time Matrim votes JNV TJ votes Stick for asking questions Hmm Is this a Stick thing for you? cause isnt asking questions a normal thing for either sied? Orlok votes Stick for shading good ting Araris votes Matrim for different Fang opinion Archer votes Bort for somthing they didnt say So I think Archer was reading too much into implications of what Bort said instead of thinking about what Bort acctually said Bit good for this cause evil is careful Stick votes xinoehp for opinon difference honestly I agreed with xinoehp here fang shouldnt be end all be all or somethings wrong Seems a bit opportunistic bu tthat might be cause I disagree Striker votes Bort Hmm Bort votes Amanuensis xinoehp votes Stick because not Bort Matrim votes Thaidakar for being weird in PMs and thread hmm I can see it honestly Thaidakar votes Stick hmm but kinda consistant with what Ive seen from them in past games Striker votes xinoeph for 'gut' Araris votes Sttriker for "too much good" This would be hmm but he's confirmed so... Better for Striker tho Striker votes Araris for bad argument Stick votes Thaidakar to live Bort votes Thaidakar casue Stick felt good xinoep votes Thaidakar because also Stick felt good Stick votes Araris Ok this feels so wrong on like every level they were safe and fine and suddenly switch like what But I think they thought it was tied? Cause xinoehp switchedd quick before thta so But hmmmm But also yeah probaby not evil with how it was going unless literally everyone being voted on was evil at first which... nah But... just... hmmmmmmm Archer votes Araris for using argument thats hmm Matrim votes Araris Orlok retracts Stick for nice reads Ok so based on what eople siad the fang wouldnt have gone off last time so bussing Araris in a village Stick world makes no sense so either Stick and Thaidakar are evil (incredibly unlikely unlikely) or the people on Araris are village besides I liked their arguments so prob latter Thaidakar still seems hmm to me but i dont really know Goodish - Matrim Archer Striker Stick Badish - TJ (I hmmed them earlier cause they seemed to be reaching a bit for the Stick vote) Thaidakar (honestly I just always read thme bad I think the way they play just hits all of the points for me dont really know why) Also why no one PM I cry now sadness maybe I reach out instead hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 42 minutes ago, Archer said: Rollcall question: what did everyone end up submitting as their Fang vote? I voted no. I think we must assume Araris was the designated sacrifice. I voted yes, but I bet you could have guessed that :P. I think that’s a dangerous assumption to make and that we’d do better to forget about the whole thing because there’s no way to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archer Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 28 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: I voted yes, but I bet you could have guessed that :P. I think that’s a dangerous assumption to make and that we’d do better to forget about the whole thing because there’s no way to know I meant we should assume no one else was the sacrifice and not look for signs people were, which basically agrees with you. Although I think there's some slight value in guessing Araris was, mainly relating to his level of comfort being killed. If you reread his posts, he was very low info in terms of connections to other players that didn't seem intentional. By the way, I was discussing distributions with Araris early in the game and had completely forgotten there's a Thug role, and he brought it up to say that he'd bet on elim team of two with a veteran or a three person elim team without. The elims were at least thinking about veterans. 31 minutes ago, JNV said: Stick votes Araris Ok this feels so wrong on like every level they were safe and fine and suddenly switch like what Not to answer for them, but even a one vote margin seems pretty close when there's unaccounted for likely voters about. I read it as them responding to viable pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 (edited) Okay! I'm here! TBH going to pretend like I'm pinch-hitting into a slot because I didn't end up getting beyond Page 2 of D1 and I'm already tired of back reading / ADHD is making it hard for me to focus; would rather interact with players in real-time, since that's a playstyle I've been exploring on MU for the last couple weeks. Worked out extremely well there, so wondering if it'll have similar results here Can a few people (or everyone preferably) give me their version of D1's TLDR? I'm curious what specifics might stand out for individuals, and that data might help me figure out your alignments in turn Good work on the red flip too! Tho I am sad that we didn't end up getting to use the Fang mechanic would have been interesting to see how an entire game played out with that in mind. Maybe in a rerun ED1T: Why is no one here someone come engage with me please Edited March 27, 2022 by Amanuensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted March 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 56 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: ED1T: Why is no one here someone come engage with me please The thread is dead. But I'll see what I can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xinoehp512 Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 Alright, Bucket Read updates. (Now with limited ordering based on strength of read.) Good Bucket Spoiler Mat Stick Orlok Bort JNV Bad Bucket Spoiler Thaidakar^ Archer^ Striker TJ Aman* Novel* *Still pending on Aman ^Would lynch This is based on my skim-reading of the thread over the past couple of days. Thaidakar is my number one suspicion. I find the concept that Thaidakar's opinions were a mirror of Araris's likely. There was something else but I forget what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 I might end up on Thaid, but I want to take a page out of our GM’s book by doing a full vote analysis before I vote. (That might come tonight, but maybe tomorrow morning.) Thaid’s mirrored opinion and Araris shifting the vote further from Thaid are two decent pieces of evidence though. @xinoehp512, what’s your reasoning for your Archer placement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Kasimir said: The thread is dead. But I'll see what I can do. Shhhh you can't be my ThreadPMBro while being my ThreadGMBro, maybe next game You know, it'd probably help if I actually read the posts before mine xD but I've done so now so yay initiative? 5 hours ago, StrikerEZ said: @Matrim's Dice I'm side eyeing you. What was this about me not being elim unless you and Araris were? 5 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: smh xD I’d like to think that was a view Araris wanted to be pushed, and I did my best to show it’s false by ruthlessly voting for him late in the turn :P. That being said, you as the earliest voter are probably the most likely bus candidate. You were on at EoD and could have jumped off for the tie you were suggesting, but that’d have potentially looked sus and could be why e!you stayed on Araris. What was the me/Araris e/e thing about again? I don’t remember despite being the one who kept bringing it up :P. Likely won’t be on for fourish hours. 3 hours ago, StrikerEZ said: Something about why he would've wanted to switch off you onto me for a reason that was clearly reaching onto me. I'm definitely missing context here but color me confused If I'm understanding this correctly, Striker thinks Mat is paired with Araris, and Mat thinks Striker is paired with Araris? But both of you voted for Araris so, what? The conclusion is that one of you bussed him? Why do we think this was a bus and not just a village wagon? 4 hours ago, Bort said: So, what was it caused the Araris bus? 3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: Elim slip? :eyes: Again, bus talk maybe I really should stop being lazy and read D1 because multiple people have mentioned this like its a foregone conclusion, but that requires work and I'd rather have fun right now Will admit tho, I'm slightly confused at this prodding of Bort, Mat. Weren't you the person that mentioned a bus in the first place? 4 hours ago, _Stick_ said: @The Unknown Novel you were online during last cycle but chose not to post - were you the fanged elim? update on reads is that I've definitely grown less suspicious of xino - told Mat in PMs towards the end of last turn, doesnt have anything to do with the flip. The more I read and reread their posts and they seem to make me lean village. The fact that they were okay with voting alongside me might be a village thing? Though in light of Araris' flip, I think there might be some significance in the fact that xino 'forgot' to assign him a read. If Archer is a villager, it means that Araris did not distance himself at all from any teammates the entire cycle, unless Striker is E. Or you are. But I mean Araris brought up both of those last two scenarios as possibilities, so I dont know what to think of that. Araris switched over from Striker to me when the votes were: And of course that brought it up to a tie between Thaid and I. Based off just this, my suspicion for Thaid has increased. That said, I can definitely see an elim tying votes between two villagers because- why not? They'd love extra chaos, plus everyone wants to exe the counter wagon in the next cycle. >> Ah okay so apparently Xino forgot to include Araris in a reads list? IMO that's more likely a Village error thing than an elim partner thing. Putting 'forgot' in quotations implies you think it could have been done intentionally, which is a weird thing to do for the exact reason you're pointing out now, and personally, I'd expect elims to avoid that kind of scrutiny in the first place; either consciously or subconsciously. If you're town reading Xino for his posts, why is that a thing you find significant, Stick? Was Araris sussing Archer then? Interesting that Stick points out Araris could be partnered with either Striker or Mat; so this isn't just a them-suspecting-each-other thing? Can someone please link me to the interaction that makes people think this? Ah okay, so Araris wanted Stick dead over Thaid? I'll stop tinfoiling Stick for the "no elim kill??" + weird xino reads list thing now. Unless Araris went into D1 with the plan of getting yeeted D1, probably just means Stick was his preferred misyeet. Hm, so you had prior suspicion on Thaid, and Araris trying to save him makes Thaid look worse. What was the original case for Thaid? 3 hours ago, Archer said: Rollcall question: what did everyone end up submitting as their Fang vote? I voted no. I didn't submit an order. Sorry for being inactive D1 =\ But I probably would have voted no anyway, unless someone came up with an extremely convincing argument. I'd have liked a D3 Fang most, if only because it would maximize the effectiveness of the mechanic from a game-solving perspective. I really was looking forward to seeing who the elims chose to remove and trying to figure out what their plan was; would have been a very different, but likely equally fun, puzzle to solve beyond the usual game solving puzzle. 3 hours ago, Archer said: Araris came up with the mechanic so he might have felt some guilt about asking another person to sacrifice themselves for it. He’s fairly selfless and would have been one of the better assets to have in an advisory role in an elim doc. This isn’t uncharacteristic of them, but he also kept his suspicions fairly close to his chest, not posting a reads list or making loose accusations. There’s enough there that I think we must assume Araris was the designated sacrifice. At the time Araris voted Stick, it pushed them into 5 vote territory, with the next best train having 2. I think this is village indicative of Stick, and implies confidence in the stability of the Stick train that obviously didn’t pan out. That’s key, because we can guess that the most stable votes would be the evil ones, and the people who undercut the train Araris’ hoped would win, and therefore his evil vote being revealed to have been on it wouldn’t matter because the victim is dead, should be looked at positively. That gives me a village read on Xino, and worse vibes from TJ who didn’t immediately move after Araris’ vote. Striker is mlerp because they asked for a VC, which implies willingness to move. If Araris is going to be Fanged, would e!Striker say this, “Okay, I think this is accurate now. I was going to potentially switch to Thaid, but now Araris is up for the exe as well and I'm half tempted to secure an exe on Stick. Or just find a way to tie it between Thaid and Stick”? I’m genuinely torn, because Striker might have been distancing initially, then forced to stay put when the Araris wagon came in. But also, why not bus better? Mat being the third vote on Araris improves my read on them. Something about them is off, but I’d rather hit say TJ than Mat. I understand Striker camping for the tie potential, but TJ is obviously around and he keeps not voting for Araris. EoD looked pretty quiet, I’m wondering what the elims were planning since they were going to lose Araris either way, the possibility of bussing was all too visible, and their sacrifice was offline. I think that’s the kind of situation they’d freeze in. Or maybe just retract and hold their breath like Orlok did. Araris poked Mat, and then moved from him to Striker in a way I clocked as suspicious. So that makes me wonder what was going on there because Striker stayed very stable on Araris. Illwei looks like an opportunistic low info kill. They had two posts, which meant this round was a good time to kill them before they became a threat. Evil reads were: TJ, TUN, Araris, JNV, Bort Good Bucket Stick, Xino, Mat, Thaid Bad Bucket TJ, Bort, Striker?, Orlok? Oh god this is a lot of words and for some reason my brain is having trouble parsing it all, but I'll try anyway. I could buy that Araris was the designated sacrifice for those reasons, but I hesitate to jump to that conclusion without knowing the rest of his team's composition. Like, if I rolled elim, I'd advocate that I get fanged instead - and that's ignoring the possibility where the elims decide to be more fluid with their fang choice based on village suspicions. So really I think it's too soon to say yes for certain. I'll admit, I'm slightly worried you're trying to control the narrative here, but the fact you voted for him means I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. Let's see what your conclusions end up being Hm. Agreed on Stick probably village. Good to know Araris tipped it that far against her. Another person town reading Xino is a good look for his slot; I see his vote ended up on Thaid, who might be partnered with Araris, so I understand why that looks good for him too. TJ remained on Stick, as did Thaid which... idk. Wagonomics instincts tell me it's very unlikely for elims to stack their votes together like that, but also the votes were really close so, hm. Is there a reason for people to think TJ is suspicious beyond that? That quote of Striker's is interesting (assuming that it's not paraphrased). I'll actually cackle if Kas made him elim again after the BT and QF xD but tbh idk how to read that without having been there myself or at least backreading with timestamps in mind. That said, I think it would be very unwise for e!Striker to post that in a world where e!Araris is about to get yeeted, if not unlikely. In the QF he talked a lot about wanting to survive a game, and I imagine he'd have the same mentality in this one; losing one teammate is bad enough and I expect he wouldn't want a repeat of AG8 either. So if anything, that's a Town point in Striker's favor from my (albeit limited) PoV. Mat being the third vote on an elim is a good look IMO (for the same reason that being the 3rd/4th vote on a Town yeet is usually a bad look). I would expect bussing to happen after the fact, since 2 votes isn't exactly damning while 3rds give a wagon its steam. I guess the question I have comes back to is, why do people think Araris was bussed at all? Is it just because there wasn't more resistance or what? Gah, if anything, this just tells me I need to read EoD myself >> I'm sure I'll get to it eventually but I really don't feel like it right now. I just want to vibe out more with whoever is around. Is anyone here? I'm kind of tired of wallposting xD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JNV Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 51 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Why do we think this was a bus and not just a village wagon? I mean I dont if you see my post I lay out why its probably not a bus cause if so Stick and Thaidakar have to be elim or the elimsm are playing kinda weird 55 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Was Araris sussing Archer then? No Archer sussed Araris for the Striker vote reasoning (see below) 53 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Interesting that Stick points out Araris could be partnered with either Striker or Mat; so this isn't just a them-suspecting-each-other thing? Can someone please link me to the interaction that makes people think this? Araris first post says this Quote As for his best guess for a Darkfriend? Well, Rambler (Matrim) had always seemed a bit off. And more recently, his comments about the Fang didn't seem to consider the interests of Helgen. Araris second post says this Quote Moving from Mat to Striker, I know he's sick and also got voted out D1 in the QF (which is why I voted Mat earlier), but there are too many names in that good list for my liking. Both Mat and Striker have argued for a D1 Fang, which I firmly believe is in the elims' favor (it guarantees that they have an extra person to scheme with, versus us exing an elim, and we'll have 0-1 votes from the Fanged player to work with). But as a lot of people pointed out the reasoning for striker was flaky cause ltos of people ahd more names in their good lists and lots of people wanted early fang so there can be some hmm in that Honestly this post was what fueld the Araris suspicion beyond just Stick wanting to live it was real weird they say "oh theyre basically the same" while moving which could imply connection 57 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Hm, so you had prior suspicion on Thaid, and Araris trying to save him makes Thaid look worse. What was the original case for Thaid? Very disengaged in thread weird voting noncommital reasons not voting on their suspicions and Matrim said something about weird PM interaction 59 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Is there a reason for people to think TJ is suspicious beyond that? TJs reasoning for Stick vote was real weird imo but not sure. I think someone mentioned aggression but I dont think theyre correct 1 hour ago, Amanuensis said: That quote of Striker's is interesting (assuming that it's not paraphrased). Its not paraphrased see here 1 hour ago, Amanuensis said: why do people think Araris was bussed at all? Is it just because there wasn't more resistance or what? Again I dont but I think people dont trust that they are smart cookies which is honestly fair but pepole are very smart cookies 1 hour ago, Amanuensis said: Is anyone here? I'm kind of tired of wallposting xD Hi hi friendo good to see you I think youre offline now but if you want to talk Ill be on for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 (edited) Hi JNV o/ Sorry I didn't start replying to your first post but I got so bogged into the details of Archer's that I ended up needing to take a break x) from my initial skim tho I remember feeling pretty good about it, and likewise I'm getting the same friendly tone from this one I'll just have to hope you're not pocketing me Either way, thank you for helping catch me up to speed TBH I feel like the fact that it's Araris of all people who's notorious for bussing might be contributing to any bus thoughts. If it were 8 votes like in the QF then I would question it more but in AG8 the Village also got a completely pure wagon on Turquoise Gorilla and the first thing I did as the non-bussing elim was press the narrative that Turquoise was bussed, so I am a little apprehensive about anyone who jumps to that conclusion here In other words, given how close the votes were, more likely that someone wanted to save Araris but just wasn't able to without implicating themselves; probably because they were already voting someone else or weren't present for EoD? Just clicked that link and read some of the votes. Orlok removing his vote from Stick and not going onto Araris is a good look to me; now I understand what Archer said earlier about Orlok tho I don't agree with the conclusion, feels counterintuitive for an elim to sidestep the bus entirely, and from the QF we already know Orlok is willing to bus D1. Seems too detached from being an elim with an about-to-die partner + his change of opinion on Stick there looks more like village reevaluation than elim backpedaling to me. Wait why the heck did Stick bring up busing before the D1 yeet even went through? Now I'm even more confused xD Okay I'm going to commit to reading all of D1 later but more likely probably tomorrow. Will also figure out who I want to vote after that because TBH a Thaid yeet might be the right play based on Araris' voting preferences, but I wouldn't be surprised if the elims are hoping for him being an uncontested misyeet today. Either way, having a single wagon is never ideal for vote analysis purposes, and so far it looks like no one else has voted elsewhere Might be on mobile for a little while but tbh no promises, did a lot of yard work today so I'm a lot tired and dealing with a little back/neck pain will reply to any quotes or questions as soon as I can tho Edited March 28, 2022 by Amanuensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archer Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: @xinoehp512, what’s your reasoning for your Archer placement? It's internally consistent if you guess e!Thaid, since I've defended them with my arguments. It'd be weird for me to vote Araris over Stick though, if you assume it was to defend e!Thaid. I'm giving Thaid a fairly long leash because they read as disconnected, not evil to me. In the example of the Mat PM, I think it was a case of them not knowing how the mechanic worked and being talked into an odd position on it. You'd think if they were parroting the elims' position, which I don't believe Araris necessarily reflected if he knew he'd be potentially killed C1 as it'd be better to spread your opinions out, he'd be more subtle about it. Saying he never wants it to be used is too extreme to me to be reading from the evil script. I accuse Absolutely TJ of being afraid to move their vote during EOD. And I'll note that Bort perfectly fits the profile of elim team member if you suspect they lacked the resources near EoD to pull off the preffered outcome of a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 3 hours ago, Amanuensis said: I'm definitely missing context here but color me confused If I'm understanding this correctly, Striker thinks Mat is paired with Araris, and Mat thinks Striker is paired with Araris? But both of you voted for Araris so, what? The conclusion is that one of you bussed him? Why do we think this was a bus and not just a village wagon? Ok, so last turn Araris plopped a first vote on me immediately, for reasons that were eh at best, which attracted some attention (but not a lot). Later, Araris moved from me to Striker for reasons that were more eh- this is what initially started the thoughts of an Araris exe in most people's minds, I think- but Striker theorized that the move on Araris' part was unnecessary unless I'm teammed with him. I went along with it as a joke somewhat but since it was early cycle and I was a help in getting Araris killed I don't think it should be looked at as serious evidence. I think that if there's a bus it's most likely from Striker, as the first Araris voter. The last three came in like the final hour of the cycle. I'm not set on a bus, I think based on the way the votes were cast it's more likely there wasn't, but if there is one it's almost always from Striker. 3 hours ago, Amanuensis said: Again, bus talk maybe I really should stop being lazy and read D1 because multiple people have mentioned this like its a foregone conclusion, but that requires work and I'd rather have fun right now Will admit tho, I'm slightly confused at this prodding of Bort, Mat. Weren't you the person that mentioned a bus in the first place? Sorry if I mentioned it as a foregone conclusion- that's not my view, as I've mentioned. I prodded Bort because of the matter-of-factness of his question, but the prod was mostly a joke anyway. 3 hours ago, Amanuensis said: Ah okay, so Araris wanted Stick dead over Thaid? I'll stop tinfoiling Stick for the "no elim kill??" + weird xino reads list thing now. Unless Araris went into D1 with the plan of getting yeeted D1, probably just means Stick was his preferred misyeet. Hm, so you had prior suspicion on Thaid, and Araris trying to save him makes Thaid look worse. What was the original case for Thaid? The other thing about Stick (besides being the countertrain) was her late vote on Araris, which, granted, could just be self pres. Like, if I'm elim, I'll self pres on myself before my teammate a lot of the time :P. But still, it makes more sense for it just to be v!Stick. The initial case on Thaid actually came from me- I didn't like his viewpoint on the Fang usage and what it implied to me about his priorities, paired with his disengagement levels being higher than usual. Both of those are sort of eh points which is why I ended on Araris over Thaid, but now that the possibility of Thaid having mirrored Araris' Fang views is there I kinda like that. 9 minutes ago, Archer said: Saying he never wants it to be used is too extreme to me to be reading from the evil script. I mean, he never actually said that, it was just the vibe I got. I agree that outright it would have been overly extreme, but it wasn't, and that was what I didn't like. I like your point on TJ and might sheep you on that, but I promised myself I'd do the vote analysis first which I haven't started but tomorrow, I promise :P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JNV Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 24 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: TBH I feel like the fact that it's Araris of all people who's notorious for bussing might be contributing to any bus thoughts. If it were 8 votes like in the QF then I would question it more but in AG8 the Village also got a completely pure wagon on Turquoise Gorilla and the first thing I did as the non-bussing elim was press the narrative that Turquoise was bussed, so I am a little apprehensive about anyone who jumps to that conclusion here I mean if theres a reputation on the line I can kind of understand the thought but I just dont see it? Like it doesnt really feel like a bus unless Matrim's an elim which maybe but they kinda seemed invested in keeping Stick alive and seemed willing to flip flop on Thaidakar too so unless theyre also with Thaidakar theyre probably village. Striker and archer seemed to have good reasons Stick was trying to stay alive so if theres evil on the train its Matrim but theres probably not evil on the train this isnt the orient express 58 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: In other words, given how close the votes were, more likely that someone wanted to save Araris but just wasn't able to without implicating themselves; probably because they were already voting someone else or weren't present for EoD? Nonvoters The unknown Novel (wasnt here at all) you (wasnt here much) me (gone yesterday) Illwei (dead) Orlok (see they could have just stayed on but they didnt good look) Stick voters TJ (they stayed on Stick the whole time and didnt really have a good reason) Thaidakar (this guy is always hmm and honestly Id be down for this) Thaidakar voters: Bort xinoehp (thye feel really similar from what I remember both wanted Stick to live and were willing to vote out this guy feeling meh about them honestly Id be down to get them out just let me figure out the differences) So yeah conclusion kill a stick or Tahidakar voter 1 hour ago, Amanuensis said: Wait why the heck did Stick bring up busing before the D1 yeet even went through? Now I'm even more confused xD Ok I know Stick basically has to be village at this point but... they feel so evil their aura is so menacing all the shivers down all the spines ya know 1 hour ago, Amanuensis said: TBH a Thaid yeet might be the right play based on Araris' voting preferences, but I wouldn't be surprised if the elims are hoping for him being an uncontested misyeet today. Ok like if Thaidakar is evil then Stick is actually just a god good job Stick and honestly I kinda feel like Tahidakar is being normal but Thaidakars normal is just very evil like kinda like how Stick is radiating eau de mal right now TJ posts Anti C1 fang anti late fang Prefer actual vote over fang death C2 fang ish Mtarim miss rules Distance takes time Distance strategies Votes Stick for asking questions See they say its specifically cause its Stick doing it and sure maybe I diont know Stikc very well but... really? I want to be pointed to Stick only doing it as evil guy I want evidence I wan tcitations Hmmm out of ten Shades Archer for elim strategising when... just look at their previous posts man thats a lotta elim strategising sir also keeps going on Stick which is still hmm also shades xinoehp for grammar Hmm Stick hasnt done this as village before apparently ok where did they do it as elim please Im new I dont wanna go back through every game Sticks ever plaeyd to find it Also wait hold up Im looking back and I cant find Sticks "performative " question they had like two posts before TJs vote and they didnt really have questions except for one good question so like hmmmm Thaidakar just gut Archer thoughts So hmmm so very very hmmm I really dont like their stick vote at all Thaidakar posts "randomly chaotic" grrr I dont like random chaos for chaos's sake but its not really evil votes TJ for "no reason in particular" See this is what I mean by they radiate evil Votes Stick without reasoning But the problem is this behavior is all very normal for Thaidakar which is grrr Then says suspicious of Archre and Bort but doesn't vote them Llike try to tell me this behavior isnt anti village. Try Not paing attention and also doesnt get Kasimir's jokes Ok this isnt really evil but come on Kasimir's jokes were hilarious man like seriously Were you even paying attention? All reads are gut and sheep Joking Fang later Just.. everything about Thaidakar always rubs me the wrong way but thats normal for Thaidakar honestly and if they dont do that then theres cause for concern but until then just arrrgh Bort posts Fang soon yes now Want Fang soon Vote Tahidkaar Ok like this feels weird but also they arent elim unless Stick is an elim and Stick isnt an elim so... Just kinda eh xinoehp posts Fang soon not now Fang not crucial See a lot of people were like "hmm" on this but I like this post and agree Some reads no reasons They eviled Stick but later liked Stick hmm Bort good cause vibes TJ bad cause aggressino Hard disagree about aggression = evil but yeah TJ bad Left Araris out accident Suspicious Thaidkaar over Stick I mean I guess they were both in the "bad bucket" Also eh but less eh sligthly less evil than Bort Voting TJ @|TJ| what was the 'performative' question Stick asked and why did you keep thinking about this specifically instead of going elsewhere with your thoughts what exactly was so hmm about Stick Ok the popup at the bottom says thereve been like two new posts but Ive heard horror stories about refreshing and loosing everything so Im just going to post this and edit in replies to things if there are things to reply to if not last post of the night bye friends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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