Mid-Range Game 57: Helvegen

[Kasimir]

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Kas be like:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

I'm used to the fact that @Amanuensis and @Orlok Tsubodai clearly want me to suffer, thank you Shuffle Squat Bro :|

I'm used to it.

I'm Zen.

I've literally created a separate post last cycle noting Orlok's vote in bold for my own sanity :|

At first I was confused, I had clarified
That I needed you to bold your votes for my sanity
But then I spent so many nights having to count your votes
And I grew strong, and I learned how to just adapt.

And so you're back, unbolded votes
I just walked in to find more here, and now even Aman's joining in
I should have enforced that damn rule
I should have made you bold them in
If I'd have known you'd be doing this in all subsequent cycles

Go on now, go, don't bold your votes
Just try me now, 'cause I'm not taking it anymore
Weren't you the ones who tried to hurt me with no bold?
Did you think I'd crumble? Did you think I'd lay down and die?

Oh no, not I, I will survive
Which is more than I can say of some of you damn delinquents
I've got all these votes to count, and I've an NK to process
And I'll survive, I'll survive, hey, hey

It took all the strength I had, not to fall apart
Just tryin' hard to record all those damn unbolded votes
And I spent oh so many nights just hating both you and myself
I used to cry, but now I hold my head up high
And you see me, somebody new
I'm not that suffering Elim who had breakdowns everyday
And so you felt like droppin' those unbolded votes and trolling me
Well, now I'm fighting both of you in the thread instead of sighing

Go on now, go, don't bold your votes
Just try me now, 'cause I'm not taking it anymore
Weren't you the ones who tried to hurt me with no bold?
Did you think I'd crumble? Did you think I'd lay down and die?

Oh no, not I, I will survive
Which is more than I can say of some of you damn delinquents
I've got all these votes to count, and I've an NK to process
And I'll survive, I will survive, I will survive!

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'm used to the fact that @Amanuensis and @Orlok Tsubodai clearly want me to suffer, thank you Shuffle Squat Bro :|

I'm used to it.

I'm Zen.

I've literally created a separate post last cycle noting Orlok's vote in bold for my own sanity :|

At first I was confused, I had clarified
That I needed you to bold your votes for my sanity
But then I spent so many nights having to count your votes
And I grew strong, and I learned how to just adapt.

And so you're back, unbolded votes
I just walked in to find more here, and now even Aman's joining in
I should have enforced that damn rule
I should have made you bold them in
If I'd have known you'd be doing this in all subsequent cycles

Go on now, go, don't bold your votes
Just try me now, 'cause I'm not taking it anymore
Weren't you the ones who tried to hurt me with no bold?
Did you think I'd crumble? Did you think I'd lay down and die?

Oh no, not I, I will survive
Which is more than I can say of some of you damn delinquents
I've got all these votes to count, and I've an NK to process
And I'll survive, I'll survive, hey, hey

It took all the strength I had, not to fall apart
Just tryin' hard to record all those damn unbolded votes
And I spent oh so many nights just hating both you and myself
I used to cry, but now I hold my head up high
And you see me, somebody new
I'm not that suffering Elim who had breakdowns everyday
And so you felt like droppin' those unbolded votes and trolling me
Well, now I'm fighting both of you in the thread instead of sighing

Go on now, go, don't bold your votes
Just try me now, 'cause I'm not taking it anymore
Weren't you the ones who tried to hurt me with no bold?
Did you think I'd crumble? Did you think I'd lay down and die?

Oh no, not I, I will survive
Which is more than I can say of some of you damn delinquents
I've got all these votes to count, and I've an NK to process
And I'll survive, I will survive, I will survive!

is that, is that a Disney song? is Kas over here a Disney main? is it called, SE, a tale of GMS?

[|TJ|]

10 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’m not entertaining e!Stick right now so I’m just going to assume D1 was a pure train and leave that there.

See, you know stuff like this is what rattles the bells in my brain. 

The most logical reason why Archer was killed was to show more green flips on the Araris train. There's no better explanation for that kill, period. So, @Matrim's Dice and @_Stick_, how are you reading each other now? I guess Mat made his opinion clear but, Mat, how can you dismiss e!Stick so easily given the context of Archer's kill?

10 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Apart from people in the group PM, Orlok is presumably the only one who knew Archer would be changing his vote, and so he knew Archer won't be getting exe'd.

What is the profit for Orlok by killing Archer? I'd argue that you or Mat in the group PM had a higher motive for killing Archer than Orlok. 

7 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Like, I'm waiting to see how TJ enters because healthy paranoia or whatever, but from what I've seen Archer and TJ have been going at it most of the game and it's so incredibly weird for TJ to kill Archer now when Archer was so close to getting voted out anyway. I'm having a lot of trouble grasping the elims path to victory, but if I had to guess, this was intended to frame TJ rather than exonerate him. Like, if TJ is elim, what's his game plan going into today after killing his tunnel? He would basically be forcing himself to start from the ground up and I don't get it? Unless he wanted to go back on Stick I guess, but what's the likelihood of anyone really joining him there? It's just so weird

This is me coming back, what do you think about the reasons for elims to kill Archer last cycle? Do you think Mat and Stick are village? I do feel like I'm in the singularity this whole game :P.

Okay, where I'm at rn is either 1/2 of Mat/Stick followed by either 1/2 of xino/Bort. 

Mat's reasoning (or rather the post) for voting on Orlok reads more like a defence of Bort rather than an attack on Orlok. 

 

10 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Quote

Oh wow! Good job guys.

I head off to run a game thinking Thaid or Stick would get it, and get back to see everything has changed.

So, what was it caused the Araris bus?

I think this is an attempt to provoke a mislynch on one of the Araris voters. I don't buy his explanation here:

Why do you not think the bolded statement could have been an elim slip? And the subsequent explanation about the bus confusion was to backtrack and show that it wasn't a slip and merely wrong understanding of the term? What do you think about Mat and Stick right now?

Conflicted between Mat and Stick, but I'll form a better opinion once I re-read D1. I'll go with Matrim for now.

[Amanuensis]

Gah, I'll admit, I'm so detached from the last couple days that I might not be remembering the D1 yeet clear enough, but my first read didn't seem much like a bus to me =\ I actually completely forgot that Orlok retracted a vote on Stick and didn't even vote Araris which I felt was Townie before. Even scratching out the Araris yeet, there's something I can't put my finger on about Orlok's entry today that's raised my hackles. I guess that it felt preplanned, or like he had some kind of agenda today? "Going to open with voting on X" with a few multiquotes and strong accusations just feels a little unnatural to me and suggests he knew what his next move was already, but I'll admit, it could just be the fact that it's a big change from Orlok's usual playstyle, given I'm used to the spreadsheet walls and lack of direct participation until late game, at which point I'm usually already dead 

The fact that Stick and Mat jumped on him immediately had felt good from my PoV initially because it validated the feelings I had even while not fully grasping the specific reasons? I don't know if I'm making sense right now but I'm not in a great position to do hardcore analysis or build any cases. At the very least, I promise to give everything a read-through again TJ, because there were a few posts of yours (especially D1) that I felt came from a Town mindset. I could point them out later if anyone wants me to but for now, I'm about to head to sleep. Either I'll find out that you're really onto something or figure out its just paranoia being paranoia, as paranoia likes to do. I really don't know right now =\

I do agree that Mat's vote post absolutely seems like a defense for Bort, which does concern me a little given that I'm not town reading Bort for my own reasons beyond Orlok's accusations. Even then, if bussing Araris was the plan, I don't know why Mat would do it and Bort wouldn't. Bleh. I'll look into timestamps and everything for the D1 votes and see if I can make sense of it like I was there; generally I'm better at reading ongoing interactions than looking back at old data. IIRC, I do remember speculating that Araris' partners were already voting on someone else or just not present when he accumulated votes to save him, which fits Bort well, but that'd mean that Mat was at least present to get the "send me" go ahead from Araris, and I have some doubts that Araris wouldn't want to see his own invented mechanic go through; especially being an elim Elder for all things lmao. (Wait, I just realized... KAS? DID YOU DO THAT ON PURPOSE? Hilarious if so xD)

Regarding Stick, I really don't know if she'd be as proactive as she's been this game if she were elim. My most recent memory of her wolf play is MR56 and she was just kinda chill there and vibing, wasn't concerned with dying at all, whereas in this game she's been trying to rally people ever since she almost got yeeted. She feels more like AG8 Chartreuse Penguin to me, except she hit the ground running here. And tbh, a part of me likes that cause it reminds me of me when I'm Town

At the very least, I'll do the best I can tomorrow. I'm actually a lil scared how no one has come to Orlok's defense or brought up another yeet option beyond Bort until you. So I guess there's a niggling doubt that you're paired with Orlok now, but I still find the Archer kill really odd. I feel like there's something I'm missing and it's going to make a lot more sense in retrospect, but atm my head is just spinning

Edited March 30, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Stick.]

36 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

So, @Matrim's Dice and @_Stick_, how are you reading each other now? I guess Mat made his opinion clear but, Mat, how can you dismiss e!Stick so easily given the context of Archer's kill?

To be honest I’ve had in my village reads for some time now but obviously some paranoia has been creeping in. Cuz I was just thinking…if Striker and Archer were both villagers, who the heck did Araris distance from C1?? He poke voted Mat in the beginning but why did he switch?? It’s not like Mat was ever in any danger. So e!Araris ideally shouldve kept his vote on e!Mat, I think? Is it possible that Araris just simply did not think to distance from any teammates C1 because he didn’t think he was dying that cycle? It’s possible. 

Also TJ smh you were sussing Orlok in our PM last cycle but now you’re backing out?  Is it because of the NK choice solely?

40 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I'd argue that you or Mat in the group PM had a higher motive for killing Archer than Orlok. 

This doesn’t make much sense cuz why would e!me want to kill Archer?? Archer trusted me enough to put me in a trust group PM. E!Me wouldve exploited that and pocketed Archer further. 

@JNV you asked why I’m reading Xino village. (The quotes aren’t working anymore for some reason.) It’s because their posts C1 read very village to me and also the way they jumped from heavily suspecting+voting me to voting alongside me started to seem village to me. Initially I elim-read that move but I don’t see what motives e!Xino would have to do that. 

[Kasimir]

58 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

(Wait, I just realized... KAS? DID YOU DO THAT ON PURPOSE? Hilarious if so xD)

Handpicking is a dangerous precedent for a GM to set.

It turned out that RNGesus really, really wanted Araris to be an old grouch.

[Bort]

So... Orlok, obviously.

It looks like he's adopted Archer's aggressive stance towards me, and is twisting a lot of what I said in C1, just like Archer did.

I realise that Archer turned out to be village (which means his posts make little sense to me right now), and I bet that Orlok is hoping that the reveal of Archer being village means that people will be more likely to follow him and vote on me.

Sort of a "Look, the person going after Bort turned out to be innocent the whole time, Bort must be evil, come lynch him with me!" scenario. It gets rid of someone who had been considered village by a number of players, and a convenient target for the next mislynch.

[xinoehp512]

Time to rebucket.

Good Bucket

Spoiler

Mat
Aman
Stick
JNV

Bad Bucket

Spoiler

TJ^
Orlok^
Bort
Thaid
TUN

 I will vote TJ. In light of Stick's claim, I suppose I should say that I am also a Village Elder.

[|TJ|]

7 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Also TJ smh you were sussing Orlok in our PM last cycle but now you’re backing out?  Is it because of the NK choice solely?

Also because of 3 back-to-back votes on him, 2 of whom I suspect :P. And don't ask about my read progression this game smh, they've been flip-flopping more than a fish out of water :P. 

2 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

 I will vote TJ. In light of Stick's claim, I suppose I should say that I am also a Village Elder.

You know what? I don't actually recall any exact reasoning for your vote/suspicion on me right from the beginning of the game, so I'll ask now. Why do you suspect me?

Edited March 30, 2022 by |TJ|

[Mat]

9 hours ago, |TJ| said:

The most logical reason why Archer was killed was to show more green flips on the Araris train. There's no better explanation for that kill, period. So, @Matrim's Dice and @_Stick_, how are you reading each other now? I guess Mat made his opinion clear but, Mat, how can you dismiss e!Stick so easily given the context of Archer's kill?

Mat's reasoning (or rather the post) for voting on Orlok reads more like a defence of Bort rather than an attack on Orlok. 

I wasn't dismissing e!Stick so much as pushing it aside because I don't want to think about it :P. I'm extremely paranoid about Stick and have spent the last day wracking my head around how in the Light the EoD of D1 makes any sense, and if I should just trust my initial judgement that everyone involved was village since clearly I was right about Archer and Striker before paranoiding the first and 180ing on the second. Still not completely sure how that happened, because I did v read both of them off of my D1 analysis. Think it was Orlok and Stick, which adds to that paranoia. I've mentioned this to a few people, but I'm tinfoiling e!Veteran!Stick and e!Orlok as the remaining team and I'm scared to go for that right now but it almost kind of makes sense. I don't think Stick or Orlok work well as elim without the other, yet they're not e/e based on this turn alone and I just really don't get it, see, that's why maybe I should trust that they're both just village >>

Sorry, got off track there :P.

It wasn't intended to be a Bort defense, though I get why it appears that way. It sort of evolved into that by accident, I guess, but I feel that I should clarify that I'm still a null on Bort. None of the points I made were supposed to show v!Bort, they were just supposed to show why it wasn't e!Bort. Yes, there is a difference :P.

8 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

This doesn’t make much sense cuz why would e!me want to kill Archer?? Archer trusted me enough to put me in a trust group PM. E!Me wouldve exploited that and pocketed Archer further. 

^This

5 hours ago, Bort said:

So... Orlok, obviously.

It looks like he's adopted Archer's aggressive stance towards me, and is twisting a lot of what I said in C1, just like Archer did.

I realise that Archer turned out to be village (which means his posts make little sense to me right now), and I bet that Orlok is hoping that the reveal of Archer being village means that people will be more likely to follow him and vote on me.

Sort of a "Look, the person going after Bort turned out to be innocent the whole time, Bort must be evil, come lynch him with me!" scenario. It gets rid of someone who had been considered village by a number of players, and a convenient target for the next mislynch.

Mmm don't really like this at all, almost makes me want to unvote Orlok :P. But I'm also getting Kas/Orlok QF vibes from you and Orlok, and I could see the same thing being pulled twice in a row so idk

That last paragraph of yours just isn't what Orlok said, like, at all. I also don't like how you're voting someone based of a similarity to a villager.

(Thinking out loud begins now)

I don't really like xino's read list but can't put a finger on why

Also getting a bad gut from Aman that I can't really explain.

I feel like I'm close to cracking this game open, and that if I had just one more flip then everything would fall into place >> But I feel so lost right now.

I'm leaning either to some combination of Orlok/Stick/Bort or Aman/TJ/xino with like TUA thrown in there as the fourth I guess idk maybe there is an elim Veteran. Those last three actually work decently well as a team :P.

Yknow what, no. Orlok. I want to vote outside of the mess that is the D1 EoD. There is an elim out of that unless it is just Stick/Orlok and that's an outlandish enough idea that I feel fine doing that.

Leaning Aman or Bort right now, maybe TJ, but the problem with TJ is that he's felt village approximately half of the time and elim the other half of the time.

I should just post this now or it will continue to get longer :P.

Edit: Managed to get longer anyway

Possible D1 Araris Connections: (literally every time someone talked about Araris/Araris talked about someone)

Spoiler

• xino leaving Araris out of his reads list when including the nonposters (later, claimed to have forgotten and put Araris in Bad Bucket so idk)
• Stick put Araris in null, tagged Araris and asked his opinion on Thaid
• Araris mainly ignored Stick's question, but voted Stick
• Above point made Stick okay with an Araris exe, voted Araris
• TJ pointedly doesn't vote Araris and theorizes a bus before Araris flips

It's kind of incredible how Araris literally only quoted/responded to me, Striker, Archer, and Stick :P. Leaves exactly one door open for distancing. D1 kinda makes Stick and Araris look e/e except for the part where she initiated his death, but if it's a bus (which, I remind you, was a strategy suggested by Stick) that works.

Again I don't want to vote Orlok or Stick today but I think this deserves mentioning.

Edited March 30, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[|TJ|]

9 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

This doesn’t make much sense cuz why would e!me want to kill Archer?? Archer trusted me enough to put me in a trust group PM. E!Me wouldve exploited that and pocketed Archer further. 

46 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

^This

Okay, so what's the difference with e!Orlok then? Why wouldn't he do this as well? :P. 

My point though, was you guys valued showing Araris train was green more than pocketing Archer. 

Edit: 

45 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

TJ pointedly doesn't vote Araris and theorizes a bus before Araris flips

I'd argue that e!me would have bussed Araris. My evil game has mainly been distance-y :P. 

Edited March 30, 2022 by |TJ|

[Amanuensis]

• (3) Orlok: Stick, Aman, Kas, Bort,
• (2) Bort: Orlok, Thaidakar, 
• (1) Matrim: TJ, 
• (1) TJ: Xino, 

Okay, so.

Orlok and Bort are both in my PoE, so I'm happy with voting either rn. Matrim and TJ I'm leaning Town on so they're completely off the table for me.

Thought experiment time!

@Orlok Tsubodai Say that Bort gets yeeted and flips green tomorrow? Who is your next suspect?

@Bort If Orlok gets yeeted instead and flips green, who is your next suspect?

@|TJ| Same question regarding Mat; if green, who next?

@xinoehp512 I bet you can guess what I'm asking you without even asking

@The Unknown Novel Since we both were unable to participate in the early game, I'm most especially curious about your thoughts of current events?

Edited March 30, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Stick.]

4 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Okay, so what's the difference with e!Orlok then? Why wouldn't he do this as well? :P. 

Orlok was not in the trust PM  Archer told him about the vote switching plan in one-to-one PMs

edit:

@Thaidakar the Ghostblood what are your thoughts on the current exe?

edit2:

Orlok  Bort

@Kasimir

 

Edited March 30, 2022 by _Stick_

[Kasimir]

19 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Orlok was not in the trust PM  Archer told him about the vote switching plan in one-to-one PMs

edit:

@Thaidakar the Ghostblood what are your thoughts on the current exe?

edit2:

Orlok  Bort

@Kasimir

 

thank u 4 bolding ur votes ilu too <3

[Stick.]

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

thank u 4 bolding ur votes ilu too <3

ofc <3

Bort  Orlok

afkjaddvnafsjd

inb4 orlok/bort v/v and mat is E 

edit:

Also I'm moving JNV to my village reads - they give off good vibes in our PM

 

Edited March 30, 2022 by _Stick_

[Amanuensis]

Stick Mat
JNV Xino TJ
Thaid TUN
Orlok Bort

Descending order for levels of trust atm.

Tier 1: I personally don't think Araris was bussed on D1 so I don't care much for doubting those reads until a lylo situation.
Tier 2: JNV, Xino, TJ feel Town to me for gut reasons and microreads with some individual caveats - would reevaluate soon but most likely only if we fail to find a wolf in the bottom 4
Tier 3: Pretty much zero content and no opinions; don't love the idea of yeeting them today but I'm having trouble believing the players above them are evil, so probably a last resort
Tier 4: My best bet for the elims rn. I have reasons but I'm trying to figure out right now which of the two is more likely elim or if this is another QF59 situation. V/E or E/E?
 

ED1T:

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

• (3) Orlok: Stick, Aman, Kas, Bort,
• (2) Bort: Orlok, Thaidakar, 
• (1) Matrim: TJ, 
• (1) TJ: Xino, 

Okay, so.

Orlok and Bort are both in my PoE, so I'm happy with voting either rn. Matrim and TJ I'm leaning Town on so they're completely off the table for me.

Thought experiment time!

@Orlok Tsubodai Say that Bort gets yeeted and flips green tomorrow? Who is your next suspect?

@Bort If Orlok gets yeeted instead and flips green, who is your next suspect?

@|TJ| Same question regarding Mat; if green, who next?

@xinoehp512 I bet you can guess what I'm asking you without even asking

@The Unknown Novel Since we both were unable to participate in the early game, I'm most especially curious about your thoughts of current events?

I need these data points plz and ty <3 

Edited March 30, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Bort]

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

If Orlok gets yeeted instead and flips green, who is your next suspect?

Probably Thaid, JNV, or Xino. Or you and TUN. I'm always suspicious when player miss part of the game, but I always give a bit of leeway because it's typically RL stuff.

[Amanuensis]

12 minutes ago, Bort said:

Probably Thaid, JNV, or Xino. Or you and TUN. I'm always suspicious when player miss part of the game, but I always give a bit of leeway because it's typically RL stuff.

Could you tell me about your reads on JNV and Xino?

[Mat]

Retaliation to Stick’s changes :D.

Bort

7 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

inb4 orlok/bort v/v and mat is E 

I legitimately don’t think I could fake the level of confusion and solving I’ve done in thread and PMs, but maybe I’ll surprise myself the next time I roll elim  Like the theory though

[Amanuensis]

13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Retaliation to Stick’s changes :D.

Bort

I legitimately don’t think I could fake the level of confusion and solving I’ve done in thread and PMs, but maybe I’ll surprise myself the next time I roll elim  Like the theory though

Could you do me a favor and make a tiered reads list like the one I did below?

55 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Stick Mat
JNV Xino TJ
Thaid TUN
Orlok Bort

I need data :eyes:

ED1T:

Same request for everybody, if y'all don't mind

ED2T:

• (3) Orlok: Stick, Aman, Bort,
• (3) Bort: Orlok, Thaidakar, Matrim, 
• (1) Matrim: TJ, 
• (1) TJ: Xino, 

Edited March 30, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Stick.]

26 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Retaliation to Stick’s changes :D.

Bort

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Thank u

21 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Same request for everybody, if y'all don't mind

Thaid Mat xino 
JNV Aman
TUN
TJ
Orlok Bort

[Mat]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Could you do me a favor and make a tiered reads list like the one I did below?

• Thaid JNV
• Stick
• xino TJ
• Aman
• Orlok Bort

A more consolidated version has Stick in the top tier and Aman in xino and TJ’s, but this is more accurate. Orlok probably deserves higher but idk

TUN doesn’t get placed because inactivity 

Edited March 30, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[The Unknown Ajah]

Got through c1. I'm reading page 3 of c2 now. Thoughts to come when caught up.

[Amanuensis]

Glad to hear it  I hope you're feeling better too

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood]

3 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Orlok was not in the trust PM  Archer told him about the vote switching plan in one-to-one PMs

edit:

@Thaidakar the Ghostblood what are your thoughts on the current exe?

edit2:

Orlok  Bort

@Kasimir

 

*looks up what exe means* the vote count's on Bort right? hmmm, I dunno, I have to skim through the past cycles a bit more, then maybe I can get back to you.

On trust I'm feeling good about Stick and Aman. though as a few others are I'm feeling cautious about Xino and Orlok though, I am keeping my vote on Bort for the moment though. I may switch it a bit closer to the end of cycle though, after I read through the other cycles.