Kasimir he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Author Posted March 31, 2022 Rule Clarifications: Spoiler why does this even exist at this point Player List: Spoiler 1. @Thaidakar the Ghostblood - Daian 2. @The Unknown Novel - Lorum Ipsum, actually Lorumis Ipsimir 3. @xinoehp512 4. @Matrim's Dice - Rambler, disturbed fellow 5. @Orlok Tsubodai - Locke 6. @Amanuensis - Lin Mindrigurin, elderly veteran sometimes mistaken for Lan 7. Araris Valerian - Alain Stern, hardy woodsman Darkfriend Elder 8. Illwei - Wei Villager 9. Archer - Buffy, who has an intense fear of fangs Villager 10. @JNV - Kai 11. StrikerEZ - Eaton Strikk, a guy with a headache and worryingly murderous tendencies Villager 12. _Stick_ - Stieg Village Elder 13. Bort - Bortington the Blind Darkfriend 14. @|TJ| - Jóhannsson, local composer
Mat he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Posted March 31, 2022 0 for 2 let’s go This was the wanted outcome though so there is that. Recognize I look bad but whatever :D. Rethinking everything, be back later
Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Posted March 31, 2022 so we nailed an elim but lost a reg. that sucks.
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Posted March 31, 2022 We did indeed nail an elim @Orlok Tsubodai if you didn't just ruthlessly bus your teammate for the second game in a row, then I'd still like answers to my questions yesterday plz and ty My tiers after yesterday look something like this Thaid Orlok Mat TJ JNV TUN Xino I kinda think Stick and I were right and it's just @The Unknown Novel by PoE alone, but I'm lowkey hoping we're not in a last-elim-is-inactive scenario because I'd like the game to be more fun than that I've moved Xino down to my bottom tier because while I really liked his D1, I felt he's been almost a non-factor in the game recently despite voting nearly every cycle. I would have expected him to vote Orlok over Bort yesterday (hence Stick and I keeping those wagons close for as long as we did) but he just voted TJ and I find that hard to believe coming from someone partnered with Bort? It's basically the same thing that happened with Orlok on D1 in not voting for Araris or voting to save him, except this would be the second teammate lost, but maybe that's the point? It worked in Orlok's favor so possible Xino decided to try the same thing? Feels like a stretch to me but at this point, others just seem more town to me, so I have to reevaluate. @xinoehp512 do you still think TJ is an elim? JNV not voting at all is likewise notable but at the same time they have been trying much harder than everyone else to get me up to speed in PMs. So either they're doing a really good job of pocketing me or they're just a genuine villager and I need to stop doubting myself I guess The Unknown Novel for now. If anyone else has any theories I'd love to hear them because today is going to be super boring if we just settle on TUN =\
Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Posted March 31, 2022 I'm just gonna start my vote on Orlok I will probably change it in a couple hours, but whatever.
Mat he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Posted March 31, 2022 Why is backreading never as useful as I think it will be? EoD D2 should be useful because it's close with two villagers and TJ, except the reason that Striker went through was Archer and Orlok. D1 was pretty uneventful as far as connections go, basically just all the confirmed villagers and TJ reading Bort village :P. Here's a thing- Orlok- D1 the exe was tied between Stick and Araris, and Orlok caused Araris' death. He also pushed very hard to get Bort killed. Outside of exlo and exhausting all other options, not going here. Thaid- Generally disconnected, with multiple moments that... just don't really come from an elim Like forgetting what exe means, or whatever that thing in like C2 was that I forgot. All this is possible to fake, but that's not the vibe I get. JNV- As Aman mentioned, a player that's really trying. I haven't PMd them much but I agree that I just get a general village feel overall I'm reasonably certain that everyone in that list is a villager. TJ- I do get a gut village read from TJ, and I sympathize with being confused at how this is all playing out, but he's also turned up on the wrong side of a lot of debates and EoDs. Base interactions definitely give me villager vibes though. The one thing that's stopping me is the LG, where I had a similar TJ progression and he turned out to be evil, but his play that game was very different looking from his play this game. Aman- Don't love how he elim read Bort but voted Orlok last turn. Still gut read elim but that's all I've got I'm /shrug certain about anyone in that list xD xino- I keep wanting to iso xino and I keep not doing it, it will happen this turn. I mainly want to look at his reads progression vs his vote pattern. Generally under the radar, so idk. I do recall him elim reading Bort, yet consecutively voting TJ, so that's something to look at. TUN- Just inactive, which makes it hard to tell, you know? I'll start on xino, and I'll either reaffirm this or change it after my iso. That'll come either late tonight or early tomorrow, depending on how my schedule plays out for the rest of the day.
xinoehp512 he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) I have been afflicted with fallen-out-of-the-world syndrome. My opinions have not markedly changed since I last posted. Knowing that Stick was an Elder and that I am an Elder I am still suspicious of TJ's claim of Elder. I think there is either two elims or one elim Veteran left, so a mix of myself could potentially lead to LyLo next turn. Is anyone else surprised we haven't seen any Veterans yet? Edited March 31, 2022 by xinoehp512
Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Posted March 31, 2022 1 minute ago, xinoehp512 said: I have been afflicted with fallen-out-of-the-world syndrome. My opinions have not markedly changed since I last posted. Knowing that Stick was an Elder and that I am an Elder I am still suspicious of TJ's claim of Elder. I think there is either two elims or one elim Veteran left, so a mix of myself could potentially lead to LyLo next turn. Is anyone else surprised we haven't seen any Veterans yet? hmm, that's true. we haven't seen any veterans. *looks at Orlok and TUN*
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) Stick, Xino and TJ are the only Elder claims right? TBH with the fact that Araris was an Elder himself, the existence of Village Elders is completely arbitrary (basically just regulars), so I don't think it's a point against TJ. There was a time when I thought there were no village elders at all and TJ claimed it to keep people from voting him, but Stick has proven that impossible, so yeah I don't see that as a valid reason to suspect him The lack of Veterans is notable, yes, but this game also began with a small roster and we've only had 6/14 flips. Possible that no Veterans exist in the game or they've just not been hit yet I will say that since I claimed Elderly Veteran on C1, in truth, I do not have both roles, and of the two I am not an Elder. I will neither confirm or deny that I'm a Veteran, however; the elim(s?) will need to attack me to find out Edited March 31, 2022 by Amanuensis
Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Posted March 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: I will say that since I claimed Elderly Veteran on C1, in truth, I do not have both roles, and of the two I am not an Elder. I will neither confirm or deny that I'm a Veteran, however; the elim(s?) will need to attack me to find out this was particularly sus. orlok Aman.
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Posted March 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said: this was particularly sus. orlok Aman. Are you familiar with the term IKYKs?
Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Posted March 31, 2022 Just now, Amanuensis said: Are you familiar with the term IKYKs? you mean "if you know you know"?
Kasimir he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Author Posted March 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Are you familiar with the term IKYKs? 2
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Posted March 31, 2022 Just now, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said: you mean "if you know you know"? From the SE Lexicon: Quote IKYK: Acronym for “I Know You Know.” This is when one faction tries to anticipate the moves the other faction will do, while the other faction anticipates this anticipation. The levels of IKYK are deep and filled with paranoia. Learn more about IKYK on TV Tropes.
Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Posted March 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: From the SE Lexicon: still a little confused as to what you meant, but whatever.
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Posted March 31, 2022 Just now, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said: still a little confused as to what you meant, but whatever. I'm deliberately saying I could be a Veteran to make the elims second guess their NK target now they're put into an IKYK situation where they have to decide if: - 1: I'm bluffing and they could kill me by attacking me or - 2: I'm actually a Veteran and if they attack me, nobody dies tomorrow, giving us an extra turn It's to ensure they're less certain about the game state
Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Posted March 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: I'm deliberately saying I could be a Veteran to make the elims second guess their NK target now they're put into an IKYK situation where they have to decide if: - 1: I'm bluffing and they could kill me by attacking me or - 2: I'm actually a Veteran and if they attack me, nobody dies tomorrow, giving us an extra turn It's to ensure they're less certain about the game state hmm, that makes a lot more sense. unless you are an elim and are trying to turn away suspicion. crackpot theories ahoy!
Mat he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Posted March 31, 2022 I mean, I think it’s interesting that Aman thinks he’s an NK target more than anything else
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 31, 2022 Posted March 31, 2022 I think it's a possibility, yes I'm ramping up in the game now + whether I voted Bort or not, I'm a big part of the fact he was voted at all
JNV Posted April 1, 2022 Posted April 1, 2022 Ok good job on getting Bort sorry I didnt vote last time but I kinda lost the ability to see straight in a manner that isnt really blurry which isnt really condusive to analysis and it did resolve itself after a good nap but I cant get on late cycle sad then again I would hae probably ended up on Orlok cause I thought it was weird Bort saved Stick as evil and ruined the catch so... not sad? Also elims thanks for killing Stick the paranoia has been vanquished I can trust again So the players alive are this Thaidakar So with the complete... I dont know how to describe it without insulting them so Im just not going to try but with their whole thing I already thought they were village (but not raelly a trust if that makes sense) But with the Bort reveal the village ness of this guy is practically confirmed cause Bort did hop on them at Stick's behest The Unknown Novel ....sigh they are just absent and thats not great for reads or naything like that so yeah evil until proven otherwise xinoehp So I know theyve been very floaty but with the Bort reveal I dont think the elims would put two people on the 'defend Stick' train so close temporally especially with how Thaidakar seems good so I dont really suspect them but I dont really trust them and thats arguably still bad Matrim I trust them. Ok elaborating on that I odnt think an elim would be so obvious to move off Bort with so little time to spare esspecially if there wasnt a salvation operation for Bort coming up I dont think Matrims bad at the game so assuming 'paranoid village' instead of 'suboptimal elim' Orlok Seems unlikely both Bort and Orlok are evil and besides unless this person really likes public transport Im not inclined to think theyre evil Amanuensis This is the only person out of everyone in the game I actually think feels village cause everyone else feels so scummy But beyond that I should probably look into their posts a bit and get a more updated read I feel like this is my bad memory at play I just cant remember facts well emotions yes facts no TJ On the one hand I cant see the Archer kill coming from them on the other hand with how thy argued against The unkown Novel and Amanuensis possibly being evil cause of activity on the Archer kill I could possibly see a team on the third hand thats actually the first in the disguiseI cant really see how if theyre evil even with low active teammate they would let that kill slide On the fourth hand I should just get another look at them So conclusion of course The Unknownn Novel could be evil alone but with a teammate I would presume the teammate would be calling a lot of the shots if their thread activity is any indicator of eim doc activity so hard to detect partner off their flip and while I dont know if therer were four elims at the start better to assume the worst than to be surprised methinks xinoehp posts C1 Pro C2 fang Misinterprets rules about Fangining veterans and thinks Elders are probably low count plus thinks theres a lurker evil Bucket list notably trusts Bort for 'village vibes' despite controversy Distrust aggression See this is weird but its not evil weird its just weird in general Evil vibes off Stick which fair adjust TJ to good which hm Araris bad bucket Votes Thaidakar over Stick C2 So despite saying TJ could go in the good bucket they dont move them hmm Links Archer and Thaidakar as evil and is willing to vote TJ despite things Hmmm TJ worse than Archer Why? If I missed one of your posts about this sorry but I dont think so TJ worse than Striker C3 Votes TJ also village elder I could see xino what with the sudden TJ sus despite everything else and considering their absence in major votes the Archer kill isnt out of the question So its 8 2 worst case they win on outnumbered so technically we have 4 wrong votes to death but functionally 3 cause that last ones a 50 50 and conveniently enough I have only 3 pepole Im down to voting off plus the kill will be informative cause again everyone but Amanuensis feels evil and Matrim suspects Amanuensis so I dont think theyll be killed soon actually for kill speculation probably me honestly I think people like me right now so that means I die xinoehp for now but yeah I also think The Unkonwn Novel is likely I just dont think their flip will give us much info so this for now since its the only toher plausible suspicion I can find that makes any sesne bye now have a good time zone see you later
Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him Posted April 1, 2022 Posted April 1, 2022 1 minute ago, JNV said: So with the complete... I dont know how to describe it without insulting them so Im just not going to try but with their whole thing I already thought they were village (but not raelly a trust if that makes sense) I won't be insulted, I'm interested in what you mean.
Amanuensis he/him Posted April 1, 2022 Posted April 1, 2022 I didn't even notice Xino was defending Bort D1 o.o Okay so here are my goals before this day ends: Get @The Unknown Novel to give his thoughts on the game state because either he's Town and I'd rather not misyeet him or he's just a wolf and it'll become clear with activity Do a full dive of Xino's posts to figure out exactly why I felt his D1 was Towny and compare it to later days + examine his connections with Araris/Bort Suppress the worries that JNV is pocketing me hard right now and that the game isn't as completely solved as I currently believe (hope?) it is
Mat he/him Posted April 1, 2022 Posted April 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Amanuensis said: I didn't even notice Xino was defending Bort D1 o.o This is somewhat of a moot point imo, since basically everyone was :P. Or at least stuck him in their village reads and left him there.
Amanuensis he/him Posted April 1, 2022 Posted April 1, 2022 Yeah I just need to reread D1 again tbh but I hate backreading =\ ah well, we've got plenty of time so I'll def do it soon
xinoehp512 he/him Posted April 1, 2022 Posted April 1, 2022 9 hours ago, JNV said: Misinterprets rules about Fangining veterans Slander. I knew exactly how the rules worked. The comment about the fang failing was due to Elders dying, not it hitting a veteran.
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