A Joe in the Bush

Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

1,451 posts in this topic

1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

so if an escort's target doesn't speak up that's cause for an escort to call them on it.

Yes, exactly. Whichever escort that didn't target me has a chance of having targeted Bleeder. I think they should say something. Now that I think about it, whichever Escort targeted me actually has no reason at all to claim. But whoever targeted whoever else should.

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I'm also suspicious of sart because he's the only(?) person so far to think that Winston SHOULDN'T claim to me, which makes a ton of sense if they're bleeder. So, Sart. I'll get someone on checking Coda.

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Devotary's defense made sense to me, if DeTess claims otherwise then I might change this back. Sart for the reasons Pyro and Bugsy gave, those I agree with.

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Right, so got some help. With everything as it is, we can currently eliminate 2-5 people from the possibility of being bleeder each cycle. With all of the info I've gathered (thank you to those that PMed me!) if we coordinate it all, we could theoretically clear all the unknown players in 3/4 cycles. Sweet!

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3 hours ago, Bugsy said:

I didn't have the time I needed to useful to the lynch on Cycle 1, but I found enough time to post and let you all know where I'd be. It'd have been kinda dumb for me to do that and not use my action that turn, especially if I had a role as big as Bleeder :P 

I can confirm I did take an action on Cycle 1, and an extortionist redirected it so I targeted myself. I don't know who that extortionist was, but they can verify that claim if they're willing to make themselves known. 

My best guess is that your cases 2 or 3 happened. Pyro seems to believe that Araris was double tapped, and the escorts seem to be the most rational alternative if that isn't true. 

Interesting claim. Because Bleeder has a scan it's not a guarantee that you're good. Still, that's enough for me to retract my vote. Bugsy

3 hours ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Huh, didn't know about the impersonator part. Wilson

Right now I am going with Archivist's comment on how Devotary is suspect for Bleeder because of their meddling in the first cycle. I quoted Archivist earlier this cycle if anyone wants to read that, on my first post today.

Also, to help with Sart's third option, I was targeted by an Escort C1. I am not Bleeder, if I was I would not be admitting to being targeted. Therefore whichever escort targeted me C1 please reveal yourself. Then the other escort will know who they targeted C1. This will be Bleeder.

Also an interesting claim. Unfortunately, it creates an IKYK. That stands for "I Know You Know". Suppose you are Bleeder, and your action was blocked Day 1. You know the thread would be suspicious if you said nothing, so you tell the truth that you were targeted. But I know that you know that, so I still suspect you. But you know that I know that, so you still claim anyway. But I know you know... This repeats ad infinitum, and gets into mind games. I'm curious as to who else was blocked, but for now Matrim's Dice

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

That Stalker was me, as DeTess claimed in thread.

Case 1 is actually reasonably likely, as there was a 2/29 chance of instantly losing by accidentally killing Dowser or the 5th Octant Constable. A cautious Bleeder would be willing to delay killing until her actual targets were found, which has the added benefit of not reducing the Bleeder suspect pool.

Escorts will be useful later on. Announcing in thread seems unnecessary when there are people it's relatively safe to PM. Having the people who were escorted claim, as Matrim did, should work better, with a non-claim being reasonable cause for suspicion. If the escortees do claim truthfully, I don't think it's necessary for the escort to claim except to prove they aren't Bleeder.

Everyone only gets one action per cycle, so I could not have stalked Elkanah if I was Bleeder and attacked Karnage.

I do think it makes sense for Winsting to claim to the elims. They're a useful role, but the risk of him being accidentally hit by the elim kill is too high, and I doubt the elims would be willing to stop killing until Bleeder's dead.

Wilson basically had to be an impersonator. With Elkanah presumably telling the truth about soothing Araris C1, the impersonator who moved Rae's vote had to have been someone who voted for Straw C1, and Wilson is the only living player to have done so. 

I missed the part where DeTess claimed you. Because you've scanned people on the first two cycles, you obviously can't be Bleeder, and unless severe mindgames are happening, you aren't a Constable either.

I suspect that the other person who was role-blocked will come forward. Escorts claiming who they blocked on Cycle 2 and 3 would greatly reduce the suspect list.

You make a good point about Dowser and the 5th Octant Constable. I didn't consider those roles, so we could have a cautious Bleeder on our hands.

Winsting avoiding the kill is a very good argument in favor of him claiming. I was thinking about the future turns, but that doesn't matter if we all lose this turn.

55 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I'm also suspicious of sart because he's the only(?) person so far to think that Winston SHOULDN'T claim to me, which makes a ton of sense if they're bleeder. So, Sart. I'll get someone on checking Coda.

Well, I have something of an alibi. I'm a Smuggler, and I removed Rae's vote cycle one. In retrospect, I should have removed other votes on Cycles 2 & 3, but I didn't due to the whole bandwagon situation. It's not a perfect alibi, but taking a page from Elkanah's book, do you really think Bleeder would use vote manipulation rather than a kill or scan. Admittedly, I was in some hot water, so vote manipulation wouldn't have been the worst idea, but I had already voted in self-preservation. I'll be removing a vote this cycle as well to prove my claim. Bleeder obviously isn't going to take time off from killing, since they are so close to winning.

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Posted (edited)

Signing off, may post analysis in the morning. Interesting to learn about IKYK's, sounds like those could create some interesting situations.

Edited by Matrim's_Dice
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Alas, poor Dot is dead and hollowed out and replaced by @TJ Shade. Please treat them well, amd show them a warm Elimination welcome!

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Posted (edited)

7 hours ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

This... is 100% true. The cycle number doesn't work out for you to have done all the things that Bleeder supposedly did, if you are a Stalker. @DeTess, confirmation?

To be precise, I didn't know for certain Devotary was the Stalker, and I believe all I've claimed is that they where a link in the PM chain that got that info to me. That having been said, I'd expect the real stalker to counter-claim if Devotary was lying, so I have no reason to assume that they're not the stalker. IIRC they claimed to have scanned elkanah C2, so they're indeed out of the running for being Bleeder.

Quote

Well, I have something of an alibi. I'm a Smuggler, and I removed Rae's vote cycle one. In retrospect, I should have removed other votes on Cycles 2 & 3, but I didn't due to the whole bandwagon situation. It's not a perfect alibi, but taking a page from Elkanah's book, do you really think Bleeder would use vote manipulation rather than a kill or scan. Admittedly, I was in some hot water, so vote manipulation wouldn't have been the worst idea, but I had already voted in self-preservation. I'll be removing a vote this cycle as well to prove my claim. Bleeder obviously isn't going to take time off from killing, since they are so close to winning.

I'm not so certain. If bleeder gets stalked while killing the wrong person, that'll look really bad. If they only scan there is no reason to assume that they're bleeder or an elim though. (also, if you could use 'her' instead of 'him' when referring to me, I'd appreciate it)

That having been said, it seems Sart has an alibi, though I'd love it if a scanner role (renowned or stalker) could confirm it as Sart was my best guess for being bleeder.

Other takes I have from the last couple of pages is that dice is 90% certain to not be an elim based on their interactions with Pyro just now.

It seems the overall focus is on lynching Bleeder right now. Unfortunately, there isn't as much direct analysis to do here, as bleeder doesn't have a team they can be tied too, so the only noteworthy thing to look out for is someone focussing on self-preservation. The best way to find bleeder is through action claims and coordination of scans. Unfortunately, doing so would involve revealing a lot of important roles in the thread, which isn't a good thing. I think little Wilson is confirmed village at this point, given the role-claim Sart got, so it might be a good idea to coordinate action-claims through her, if @little wilson is okay with that. That way we should get all the info, without the risk of exposing important villagers to the elims.

Anyway, let's make a quick overview of who could be Bleeder. The surviving players are:

Quote

Lord Silberfarben ( Lord_Silberfarben )
Xinoehp ( xinoehp512 )
Shard ( Experience )
Qwerty Meep ( Shard of Reading )
Coda ( Coda )
Lord Reginald ( Kynedath )
Matrim ( Matrim's_Dice )
Lady Zephyr ( Zillah )
Archivald ( The_Archivist )
Lady Lumen ( Mist )
Emi ( Emi )
TBD ( BrightnessRadiant )
LenSaar ( Devotary of Spontaneity )
Lord Malikihal ( The_God_King )
The Young Pyromancer ( The Young Pyromancer )
Julius ( Dot )
Hammond ( Megasif )
Lord Gavin Verduex ( Hemalurgic Headshot )
mad watcher ( little wilson )
Lady Telina Maladroi ( DeTess )
Lord Laborn ( Bugsy )
a smart guy ( Sart )

Of these, Young pyro is a claimed elim (and if he's lying, I'd expect the elims to make a lethal counterclaim because they need to get rid of Bleeder as well). Julius has been afk, so can't really be bleeder, and Megasif subbed in as well after some clear activity by bleeder, so he's unlikely to be bleeder either. Little Wilson can't be bleeder assuming Sart's claim of their roles is correct ( @Sart, I assume you're very certain of those?).

Sart has an alibi of his own, so I assume we can drop him from the list as well, though I'd love to see that alibi confirmed in some solid way. And I think that's it. That means we're left with a suspect pool of 16 players, counting myself. I suspect this pool can be further reduced through action claims, but I'm not certain how much further I'll get with analysis alone. I'd also note that I think the archivist is less likely to be Bleeder because of her strategizing on keeping Karnage allive, but I know bleeder!me would have done the same thing if I had reason to assume karnage was flogs, so I can't rule them out yet.

Quote

Lord Silberfarben ( Lord_Silberfarben )
Xinoehp ( xinoehp512 )
Shard ( Experience )
Qwerty Meep ( Shard of Reading )
Coda ( Coda )
Lord Reginald ( Kynedath )
Matrim ( Matrim's_Dice )
Lady Zephyr ( Zillah )
Archivald ( The_Archivist )
Lady Lumen ( Mist )
Emi ( Emi )
TBD ( BrightnessRadiant )
Lord Malikihal ( The_God_King )
Lord Gavin Verduex ( Hemalurgic Headshot )
Lady Telina Maladroi ( DeTess )
Lord Laborn ( Bugsy )

That having been said, I don't think I've looked over HH yet :P

Hemalurgic headshot

They're a member of the 'defended Straw C1 club' as well. Apart from that they haven't been contributing too much, but its clear that they're at the very least trying to keep up and do their own analysis, which I can respect. Unfortunately, there isn't enough fro me to have any sort of definitive read on them.

Also, to answer @BrightnessRadiant's question.

For elims, my suspicions are on Coda and the Archivist (and pyro, but he doesn't really count)

I don't have any solid suspicions for Bleeder now that Sart has an ellibi.

I also think Wilson and Devotary are most likely village, and matrim's dice is not an elim.

Edited by DeTess
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Posted (edited)

Heylo folks!
Glad to join my first SE.  So let me just summarize to see if I've got things right.

Karnage claimed Flogs and detected Straw. Straw was lynched and Karnage was protected that turn. Karnage died the next turn and Elkanah was lynched. Pyro outed himself and is apparently helping to find Bleeder. Wilson is basically Lift in disguise. Did I miss anything else?

So here are some of my elim suspects:

1. I believe some of the elims are trying to lay low but not exactly inactive since their wincon basically needs at least one of them to be hidden. People who fall under this are @Hemalurgic Headshot, @Shard of Reading, @Experience, @Coda, @Mist, @Zillah and @Lord_Silberfarben

Lord Sil sent a message to Dot (the one I'm replacing) asking if she is elim, so he's a confirmed villager.

Didn't sift through others, but I'm not particularly suspicious of Zillah, and Mist. I don't know much about Shard of Reading and Experience. That leaves us with HH and Coda. HH has been relatively silent but once he was voted on, he immediately questioned. This, by itself wouldn't be suspicious, but that brings me to my next point. 

2. Elkanah mislynch is nagging me. @little wilson began the voting on him on reasonable grounds, but the way votes stacked on makes me believe there are at least 3-4 elim votes on him. Now, of course, it wouldn't be one of the beginning votes are elims wouldn't start a mislynch as it's suspicious behavior, nor would they pile on votes at the end. They'd just give Elk's lynching a push that would make him the front-runner. If we ignore the first two votes (wilson and Mat's), the next votes are from Kynedath, HH, Devotary, Pyro, Sart, xino and others pile on. Note that all of the above have been accused of sus behaviour previously. It isn't a stretch to believe HH is elim. 

3. @xinoehp512 is definitely elim. Let's look at C1 for instance. Straw voted for xino claiming he's just stating the obviously by explaining the roles. Flimsy excuse. xino commends Straw on making observations. Straw then changes his vote citing "his answers are good enough". Feels similar to Pyro voting for Straw then switching to Elk. Combine the fact that xino's is one of the mid votes on Elk in the previous cycle, and well, pretty suspicious.

4. Don't know what's going on with Devotary. Apparently they're responsible for the false info that lead to Elkanah mislynch?

In decreasing order of suspicion, my elim suspects are:

xino > HH > Devotary > Kynedath > Brightness Radiant > Shard of Reading  (later 3 are just hunches) (add Straw and Fura to make it 8)

Pyro Conundrum:

The only reason why he'd ever reveal himself is if he's sure of protection, and that can happen in the following cases:

1. He's a Gambling Tycoon: This serves no purpose other than to waste a whole cycle and still have no decrease in the number of Constables.

2. He's got an elim Bodyguard protecting him: Again, it makes no sense since there has to be at least two elim bodyguards protecting him alternatively. Highly likely. Can a bodyguard also protect against lynch attacks?

3. He's Bleeder: I mean, this has to be the likely choice right? He was drawing a lot of suspicion so he misdirected it by claiming elim, hoping it would draw our attention away and it did! The only fault with this theory is the lack of counter-claim from the elims. Again, I find two reason of this:

      a. Elims are waiting for us to lynch him since he's claimed to be elim. That way they do not have to counter-claim and reveal themselves. Players wanting to lynch Pyro might be slyly hinting to us that he's Bleeder (without an outright counter-claim).

      b. Elims and Pyro are in cahoots with each other. They've made some sort of deal? I don't know how such a deal is beneficiary to the elims. Maybeh he'd stop killing elim members? Assuming that a village bartender killed Fura, my theory that Bleeder is only targeting villagers is true. If elims killed Araris in C1, he could have scanned Striker and known that he's Bodyguard + Bartender (deadly combo) and killed him in C2 leaving Orlok to elims. Villagers are now a Bodyguard down and he knows the identity of Flogs, so he goes for Karnage while elim goes for Arraenae. They're picking us apart two-by-two. Now that he's earned our trust my claiming elim, he can manipulate the lynches by steering us in the wrong direction as well! What happens when they find Lord Winsting? I do not know. They're reducing the village numbers so they could force a dispersal, while Bleeder killing Winsting in the same turn. Some sort of tie? 

This is further supported by Pyro's repeated insistence that Lord Winsting should reveal his identity to him in a PM. I really hope Winsting hasn't done this by now.

15 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Also, if winsting wants to privately claim to me, I can ensure that the elims don't NK you.

Once

14 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

And again, winsting should REALLY claim to me. Back me up on this guys. Otherwise they might get NKed.

Twice. Again, a tad bit insistent and desperate, I'm thinking? Do we take the risk of wasting a cycle by lynching Pyro? I think we should.

Edited by TJ Shade
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Posted (edited)

35 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

2. Elkanah mislynch is nagging me. @little wilson began the voting on him on reasonable grounds, but the way votes stacked on makes me believe there are at least 3-4 elim votes on him. Now, of course, it wouldn't be one of the beginning votes are elims wouldn't start a mislynch as it's suspicious behavior, nor would they pile on votes at the end. They'd just give Elk's lynching a push that would make him the front-runner. If we ignore the first two votes (wilson and Mat's), the next votes are from Kynedath, HH, Devotary, Pyro, Sart, xino and others pile on. Note that all of the above have been accused of sus behaviour previously. It isn't a stretch to believe HH is elim. 

Talk about coming out of the gate swinging :P I assume you've done this before?

Anyway, there are a couple of questions/comments I have. First is on this point. The assumption on Elkanah was that he was bleeder, so the elims wouldn't know that it was a mislynch, if I'm not mistaken. They knew elkanah wasn't an elim, of course, but that wasn't the assumption he was lynched on. That's not to say that I think there aren't any elims on the lynch, just that they wouldn't be behaving as elims trying to push a mislynch, as both elims and village wanted to get bleeder.

Quote

3. @xinoehp512 is definitely elim. Let's look at C1 for instance. Straw voted for xino claiming he's just stating the obviously by explaining the roles. Flimsy excuse. xino commends Straw on making observations. Straw then changes his vote citing "his answers are good enough". Feels similar to Pyro voting for Straw then switching to Elk. Combine the fact that xino's is one of the mid votes on Elk in the previous cycle, and well, pretty suspicious.

This is a really good point. I had Xinoehp listed as neutral/slightly elim mostly for a lack of content but this is an interesting interaction.

Quote

4. Don't know what's going on with Devotary. Apparently they're responsible for the false info that lead to Elkanah mislynch?

Close, but not quite. Devotary has claimed stalker, and he scanned Elkanah C2, seeing that he targeted karnage. Someone else scanned him C1, seeing that Elkanah targeted Araris. Elkanah admitted to these, but claimed that he was a smuggler targeting both of them for vote manip. So it wasn't a case of false information (as the information was true) but of then drawing the wrong conclusions based on that information.

Quote

Pyro Conundrum:

The only reason why he'd ever reveal himself is if he's sure of protection, and that can happen in the following cases:

1. He's a Gambling Tycoon: This serves no purpose other than to waste a whole cycle and still have no decrease in the number of Constables.

2. He's got an elim Bodyguard protecting him: Again, it makes no sense since there has to be at least two elim bodyguards protecting him alternatively. Highly likely. Can a bodyguard also protect against lynch attacks?

3. He's Bleeder: I mean, this has to be the likely choice right? He was drawing a lot of suspicion so he misdirected it by claiming elim, hoping it would draw our attention away and it did! The only fault with this theory is the lack of counter-claim from the elims. Again, I find two reason of this:

      a. Elims are waiting for us to lynch him since he's claimed to be elim. That way they do not have to counter-claim and reveal themselves. Players wanting to lynch Pyro might be slyly hinting to us that he's Bleeder (without an outright counter-claim).

      b. Elims and Pyro are in cahoots with each other. They've made some sort of deal? I don't know how such a deal is beneficiary to the elims. Maybeh he'd stop killing elim members? Assuming that a village bartender killed Fura, my theory that Bleeder is only targeting villagers is true. If elims killed Araris in C1, he could have scanned Striker and known that he's Bodyguard + Bartender (deadly combo) and killed him in C2 leaving Orlok to elims. Villagers are now a Bodyguard down and he knows the identity of Flogs, so he goes for Karnage while elim goes for Arraenae. They're picking us apart two-by-two. Now that he's earned our trust my claiming elim, he can manipulate the lynches by steering us in the wrong direction as well! What happens when they find Lord Winsting? I do not know. They're reducing the village numbers so they could force a dispersal, while Bleeder killing Winsting in the same turn. Some sort of tie? 

This is further supported by Pyro's repeated insistence that Lord Winsting should reveal his identity to him in a PM. I really hope Winsting hasn't done this by now.

Once

Twice. Again, a tad bit insistent and desperate, I'm thinking? Do we take the risk of wasting a cycle by lynching Pyro? I think we should.

I don't think there's any way in which Pyro can be bleeder. The elims will lose if bleeder wins, so even if they had a deal before, the moment pyro started calling for lord winsting to claim to him, the elims would have had to put a stop to it, because otherwise they'd just lose. And all they'd need to do to get pyro lynched is to have one of their members counterclaim pyro's assertions. That'd cost them another member, but at least they'd remain in the game.

Edited by DeTess
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22 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Talk about coming out of the gate swinging :P I assume you've done this before?

 

I haven't actually. I guess I did seem a bit over-enthusiastic xD

22 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Anyway, there are a couple of questions/comments I have. First is on this point. The assumption on Elkanah was that he was bleeder, so the elims wouldn't know that it was a mislynch, if I'm not mistaken. They knew elkanah wasn't an elim, of course, but that wasn't the assumption he was lynched on. That's not to say that I think there aren't any elims on the lynch, just that they wouldn't be behaving as elims trying to push a mislynch, as both elims and village wanted to get bleeder.

Quote

Ahh, totally overlooked this point, my bad. (But thinking about it,  if I'm right about the deal, then they knew that he wasn't Bleeder)

22 minutes ago, DeTess said:

I don't think there's any way in which Pyro can be bleeder. The elims will lose if bleeder wins, so even if they had a deal before, the moment pyro started calling for lord winsting to claim to him, the elims would have had to put a stop to it, because otherwise they'd just lose. And all they'd need to do to get pyro lynched is to have one of their members counterclaim pyro's assertions. That'd cost them another member, but at least they'd remain in the game.

Well, that's true. But what if he asked Winsting to claim because he wants to uphold his end of the deal. Not kill him by mistake till a dispersal favoring elims can be achieved. I'm definitely over-thinking this "deal" bit, yeah? :P

@A Joe in the Bush is there such a tie condition? What happens if Winsting is killed and a dispersal favouring elims is achieved in the same cycle?

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2 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

@A Joe in the Bush is there such a tie condition? What happens if Winsting is killed and a dispersal favouring elims is achieved in the same cycle?

I would think that the bleeder would win because they achived their win condition, but if bleeder is dead then the elims would win.

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4 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

3. He's Bleeder: I mean, this has to be the likely choice right? He was drawing a lot of suspicion so he misdirected it by claiming elim, hoping it would draw our attention away and it did! The only fault with this theory is the lack of counter-claim from the elims.

Along with what DeTess said, I don't think Bleeder would claim elim as a strategy, as that is basically asking to be lynched without protection and being on their own team, Bleeder has no outside protection from the lynch. That being said, Pyro is a confirmed elim so keeping him around might not be the smartest idea, but I'd rather go for Bleeder.

Still I am honestly impressed with you first impression, @TJ Shade. Being a new player myself I can confirm this is not easy and you made it look so!

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4 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

I believe some of the elims are trying to lay low but not exactly inactive since their wincon basically needs at least one of them to be hidden. People who fall under this are @Hemalurgic Headshot, @Shard of Reading,

I haven't been posting because I have been spending time with my family.

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Posted (edited)

Vote Tally

Coda (1): DeTess, Megasif
Pyro (2): Silberfarben, TJ Shade
HH (1): Megasif
Wilson (1): Matrim, Wilson
Bugsy (0): Sart
Devotary (0): Matrim

Sart (3): Bugsy, Pyro, Matrim
Matrim (1): Sart

I find it interesting that Matrim has changed his vote twice. I'm definitely suspicious (of him), but currently the focus is finding Bleeder. The main Bleeder arguments I've seen are Bugsy (Sart), Sart (Bugsy), and Matrim (Sart). Note: two of these are from Sart, who is a target himself.

Bugsy

16 hours ago, Sart said:

There are four possibilities I can see:

  1. Bleeder scanned someone, rather than killing. I find this possibility unlikely. Killing is inherently more beneficial to Bleeder, because it still reduces the suspect pool for Flogs, while weakening the other factions. It's not impossible, but I'm not going to dwell on this possibility.
  2. Bleeder attacked Araris. Again, this feels unlikely. It would mean Araris has gotten a serious reputation, because both the serial killer and the elims tried to kill him, and a villager removed his vote. If that's the case, poor Araris. I can't rule it out entirely, but I'll move on.
  3. Bleeder's kill was blocked by an Escort. At this point, I would recommend any Escort's who used that action Cycle 1 to reveal themselves. That could be the key to revealing Bleeder's true identity. Based on the number of asleep people, two Escorts used their action on Cycle 1. If you are one of those two, now is the time to reveal your role.
  4. Bleeder was inactive Cycle 1. This requires a player who forgot to send an action during the first cycle, but has been active ever since. The only player I can see doing that is @Bugsy. His only post Cycle 1 was apologizing because he had an essay due. I can see a scenario where Bugsy as Bleeder posts that quick snippet, but fails to send in an action.

I find Case 3 particularly appealing, but since I did not have the ability to roleblock anyone, I can't contribute much. I see Case 4 as another possibility, so my vote goes on Bugsy for now.

It is convenient to focus on possibility #4 because it narrows down our suspects. I agree with Sart's approach to #3. However, #1 breaks our chances of a clean process of elimination. While killing is more effective for Bleeder, C1 is the most likely time for Bleeder to use her scan. Throwing around too many kills could making it easier for others to track her down faster.

15 hours ago, Bugsy said:

I didn't have the time I needed to useful to the lynch on Cycle 1, but I found enough time to post and let you all know where I'd be. It'd have been kinda dumb for me to do that and not use my action that turn, especially if I had a role as big as Bleeder :P 

I can confirm I did take an action on Cycle 1, and an extortionist redirected it so I targeted myself. I don't know who that extortionist was, but they can verify that claim if they're willing to make themselves known. 

My best guess is that your cases 2 or 3 happened. Pyro seems to believe that Araris was double tapped, and the escorts seem to be the most rational alternative if that isn't true. 

Bugsy's alibi holds up, but there is still the possibility that Bleeder!Bugsy used the scan. This extortionist is likely the same one that trolled Pyro.

Sart

15 hours ago, Bugsy said:

Hmm. Actually, Sart, I'm rather suspicious of you at this point. 

You know perfectly well that if a Bartender targets Pyro, the elims will likely have their bodyguard protect him the same night. Yet you say that if he survives the kill, you'd consider lynching him as a Bleeder candidate. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense from the perspective of anyone but someone trying to accomplish a mislynch, and the only person who wants a mislynch right now is Bleeder. 

Also, you don't want the elims knowing who Winsting is, which puts him entirely in the line of fire for the night kill these next few cycles. Again, that's not a fantastic outcome for anyone but Bleeder, since it risks an instant loss for both factions on a single unlucky kill order.

You also know Wilson's Impersonator role, and Bleeder has a role scan as one of her abilities. Wilson's got a reputation like the one you talked about Araris not having, and it'd make sense for Bleeder!You to scan her C1 if you didn't want to risk killing the Dowser or the 8th Octant Constable. 

So, yeah. Sart, at least for now.

This all lines up. Sart's knowledge of Wilson's roles is the biggest thing for me in this accusation. Sart does have an alibi, which is included in the quote below:

12 hours ago, Sart said:

Also an interesting claim. Unfortunately, it creates an IKYK. That stands for "I Know You Know". Suppose you are Bleeder, and your action was blocked Day 1. You know the thread would be suspicious if you said nothing, so you tell the truth that you were targeted. But I know that you know that, so I still suspect you. But you know that I know that, so you still claim anyway. But I know you know... This repeats ad infinitum, and gets into mind games. I'm curious as to who else was blocked, but for now Matrim's Dice

 

Well, I have something of an alibi. I'm a Smuggler, and I removed Rae's vote cycle one. In retrospect, I should have removed other votes on Cycles 2 & 3, but I didn't due to the whole bandwagon situation. It's not a perfect alibi, but taking a page from Elkanah's book, do you really think Bleeder would use vote manipulation rather than a kill or scan. Admittedly, I was in some hot water, so vote manipulation wouldn't have been the worst idea, but I had already voted in self-preservation. I'll be removing a vote this cycle as well to prove my claim. Bleeder obviously isn't going to take time off from killing, since they are so close to winning.

Sart says it himself, this alibi has some flaws. But with anything, it could or could not happen. Generally, this alibi doesn't change anything, and requires we wait out the cycle to confirm. Unfortunately, we can't really do that.

Matrim

Sart's accusation of Matrim is based on IKYK, which is by nature confusing and doesn't present much evidence. I am already suspicious of Matrim, but I think it is much more likely that he is an Elim. Sart's shift of attention to Matrim also makes me more suspicious of Sart.

I'm most suspicious of Sart.

Edited by Hemalurgic Headshot
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I myself don't even know what's going on anymore...

I do feel wary of working with the elims in any regards. They know more than the village simply by nature, which means that they could easily backstab/trick us. Two might be dead, and another might be outed, but there could still be 4-6 that we don't know about. Dispersal votes necessary this cycle are 11.  As it stands, 5 people have yet to respond. If three people die, that means that only 13 people will be awake next cycle, which means the total number of dispersal votes required will be 8. That puts the elims a vote manip or an Escort away from victory in the worst case scenario. However if @Experience @Kynedath @Zillah @Emi @The_God_King all post, total number will be 13 - which, if the elims can't win at 11, should keep us safe for this cycle at least.

What to do about this I have no idea. What was the verdict on Bleeder? Does she have to be alive to win?

 

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Just now, xinoehp512 said:

Does she have to be alive to win?

Yes

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7 hours ago, DeTess said:

I think little Wilson is confirmed village at this point, given the role-claim Sart got, so it might be a good idea to coordinate action-claims through her, if @little wilson is okay with that. That way we should get all the info, without the risk of exposing important villagers to the elims.

sigh. the cycle me decide to be chaotic and see if me can get my first ever lynch as village me gets called confirmed village. irony no?

me would prefer not be position you sujest tho if people reeeally want me to be position me will. me unsure me gossip 4 pms be enough for coordination however.

also me be lift in disguise?!!? where me wyndle???

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Posted (edited)

15 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I'm also suspicious of sart because he's the only(?) person so far to think that Winston SHOULDN'T claim to me, which makes a ton of sense if they're bleeder. So, Sart. I'll get someone on checking Coda.

Sus behaviourrr. This doesn't make sense? Just because you're an outed elim, doesn't mean we have to trust you. Even if you aren't Bleeder, the identity shouldn't be revealed to the elims because I'd rather the elims be careful in their kills. If we give them Winsting, they'll kill the rest of without any need for caution. So Winsting, please do not reveal yourself.

3 hours ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Still I am honestly impressed with you first impression, @TJ Shade. Being a new player myself I can confirm this is not easy and you made it look so!

Well, joining late in the game does have its advantages. I'd be as clueless any new player if I'd started from C1.

2 hours ago, little wilson said:

also me be lift in disguise?!!? where me wyndle???

I don't know, where did you chase him off to? xD 

I'm a single Gossip too btw. I have no idea what to do with this role. It seems pretty useless at first glance. So if you need any info through me, you can PM me. 

I'll go through Sart's posts to see if the Bleeder claim holds up. Again, it feels like a misdirection from Pyro. It looks like he's having the time of his life. 

EDIT: Went through Sart's posts and found an interesting one during C2.

Quote

Well, this is pretty much redundant at this point, but Straw. I should've trusted my gut, instead of switching to Karnage. Karnage supposedly revealing himself is extremely problematic. If he isn't Bleeder, we can presume that he will be attacked every cycle. There isn't a surefire way to keep him protected, especially because of the bodyguards not being able to target someone twice in a row. Hopefully we'll have a couple cycles, but once he's dead, we'll be in sudden death due to Winsting appearing. At that point, we'll need to focus on finding Bleeder rather than finding the Constables. That's problematic, because she can't be killed by any vigilantes. We'll have to lynch her, but that's like finding a needle in a haystack. I propose that if anyone survives a night kill from now on, we lynch them. This obviously excludes Karnage. We can't afford to have Bleeder win, and though it might kill discussion, we'll need to focus our lynch on her.

Seems genuine to me. People who have been playing with Sart for a while - what do you think?

Edited by TJ Shade
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1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

If we give them Winsting, they'll kill the rest of without any need for caution. So Winsting, please do not reveal yourself.

Currently, if we give them Winsting, they would probably make sure not to kill them as to not end the game suddenly and give Bleeder the win. And well, after Bleeder's dead it's an all-out war anyway so what difference does it make if they know which specific villager is Winsting or not? I'm with whoever said Sart was sus when he was the only one who didn't think Winsting should claim. I personally think he should as to survive, if he hasn't already.

 

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

Seems genuine to me.

Yes, this would be a smart idea. However no one has survived a night kill since he said this.

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1 minute ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

I'm with whoever said Sart was sus when he was the only one who didn't think Winsting should claim.

That was me.

Re:Coordinating scans, I can eliminate several people from Tess's list, but I'd rather not.

Re:Sart, he could have been Bleeder in an IKYK type preparation.

Also, I'd prefer as few people to announce their scans in thread as possible, as Bleeder would be able to just not do anything that cycle and throw all the cycle's scans in the trash, whether they're the ones scanned or not. So far, since Winsting HAS just claimed to me (please counterclaim if you're the real Winsting, as otherwise I'm trusting Bleeder here), so if anyone targets winsting with ANYTHING, it might be a scan, and thus we need to kill them right away. Stalkers, claim to Wilson. She can assign targets with Timestamps, enabling her to not have to send PMs and also generate several fake scans. If she sends me a list of her potential scans, I can eliminate several of them as either elims, or elim scan targets. Please don't block my action people, as it's a good way to find bleeder as well as a stalker. Extortionists, redirect Bleeder canidates onto the target/timestamp wilson posts directly under yours. No, the timestamps don't have to be sequential @little wilson, and sorry for putting so much work on you, it's just our best option. If anyone has any questions with my plan, please speak up.

I can only hope it's not already too late.

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3 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

If anyone has any questions with my plan, please speak up.

What's a timestamp?

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12 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Stalkers, claim to Wilson. She can assign targets with Timestamps, enabling her to not have to send PMs and also generate several fake scans. If she sends me a list of her potential scans, I can eliminate several of them as either elims, or elim scan targets. Please don't block my action people, as it's a good way to find bleeder as well as a stalker. Extortionists, redirect Bleeder canidates onto the target/timestamp wilson posts directly under yours. No, the timestamps don't have to be sequential @little wilson, and sorry for putting so much work on you, it's just our best option. If anyone has any questions with my plan, please speak up.

uuuuuuhhhhhhhhhhhhh can me not?

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Right, I realized that doesn't work, as the time stamp isn't shown exactly until way later (some times it says x hours ago), and there might be duplicates. Instead, include a 4 digit number at the beginning of your pm, chosen by RNG.

I mean, @little wilson, if you don't want to do it we could skip the middleman and just use me, but I figured you wouldn't be comfortable with that. If you do want to take this game easier, I'd be happy to coordinate the village, at least until Bleeder's dead :P

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