Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

[Mat he/him]

14 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I said alternate.

Also, re:safe targets, we know ONE non-bleeder player, and they probably wouldn't have been our target anyways.

Well you didn't. You said BG alternative... and even if you deny it what's it mean anyway.

Mind telling us who?

[Bugsy he/him]

2 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

No, because they'd scan as bartender twice.

Are you sure? From one of Joe's posts: 

Quote

If the Renowned targets a player with two roles, they are told a random role. If they target that player again, they are told the other role.

If a Renowned scans a player who has the Bleeder role and some other role, they'd see "bartender" only if the random role that got selected was "Bleeder". At least, that was my interpretation. @A Joe in the Bush, can you confirm? 

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

You said BG alternative

No I didn't. READ MY POST.

[Bugsy he/him]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Well you didn't. You said BG alternative... and even if you deny it what's it mean anyway.

Mind telling us who?

What they said was this:

Quote

If we can have the BG alternate between me and someone else who's cleared for bleeder...

That means "have the BG protect me one night, and the other person the next, and alternate back and forth"

[Mat he/him]

36 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Right, Well, I'm a stalker. We know there's a villager extortionist. If the extortionist can specify 'Bleeder's kill action,' and no bartenders kill (which I wouldn't do in case you hit Winsting), if Emi's a stalker too, that leaves at least 3 scans a turn for bleeder that can only be negated by bleeder not killing, since I can claim if there's a conflict with the elim kill. If we can have the BG alternate between me and someone else who's cleared for bleeder, the scanners can all send there targets to that person, to avoid conflicts. This makes it near-certain to find bleeder soon.

Emphasis mine. I just want to know what this means....

Edit: Oh my bad (ninja'd by Bugsy). What's BG mean?

Edit Edit: Bodyguard probably, thought about it. 

Edited May 31, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[Bugsy he/him]

Bodyguard  

 

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Bodyguard.

You're acting REALLY WEIRD Matrim

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

You're acting REALLY WEIRD Matrim

This is me being a new player and also speed-reading through your posts. Sorry. My brain mixed the words 'alternate' and 'alternative' together for some reason, promise it was a miscommunication.

Edited May 31, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

This is me being a new player and also speed-reading through your posts. Sorry.

And yet when I denied it, you didn't even bother to check your work.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

11 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

Are you sure? From one of Joe's posts: 

If a Renowned scans a player who has the Bleeder role and some other role, they'd see "bartender" only if the random role that got selected was "Bleeder". At least, that was my interpretation. @A Joe in the Bush, can you confirm? 

Confirmed!

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

And yet when I denied it, you didn't even bother to check your work.

I actually did, I went back to your post and read it wrong again. I honestly don't know what happened, like I said I have been mostly ignoring/skimming your posts as you are an outed elim.

Edited May 31, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

ignoring/skimming your posts as you are an outed elim.

Probably not a good idea in a game with a SK that I'm cooperating with you to find.

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

2 hours ago, DeTess said:

Sure. karnage scanned straw as an elim, and straw got lynched. Furami was killed by a bartender and was evil as well. Pyro claimed elim. Elkanah was lynched because he targeted both Araris when he was killed an karnage when he was attacked, which made it pretty likely he was bleeder. He wasn't though.

I think that's all the main events? You probably should read through them when you've got the chance to form your own reads on people based on these events.

Thankuuuuu. Yes I definitely will but I can't get to that until tomorrow. Currently at work and then have plans tonight too.

2 hours ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

So, for Bleeder or elim?

Both

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

can we say the same person three times? or does that work like bloody mary? mary mary mary *screams in hoororr*

can we say ourself? wilson wilson wilson? i was so hoping to sow chaos. not to be confusing with sewing chaos because i dont want to sew a picture of eric chaos. mine skills of at needlework would be suuuppper terrifying if i tried that...... archivisisisist

which....hm. might be a good way to sow chaos. heh. shhard

anyway. br

there be white text heere

I mean....I guess? xD not super helpful tho:P literally no other suspicions?

[Sart he/him]

Vote Count:
Coda (1): DeTess
Pyro (1): Lord Silberfaren
Hemalurgic Headshot (1): Megasif
Wilson (1): Matrim's Dice, Wilson

@A Joe in the Bush If Winsting dies the turn after Bleeder dies, does Bleeder still win? What happens if both Bleeder and Winsting die on the same turn? Also, does Winsting gain the Gambling Tycoon's extra life?

Rust and ruin, this is bad. I should have stuck to my guns and gone deeper into the vote analysis. Instead, I trusted the Stalker information from @Devotary of Spontaneity, and this was the result. I still don't know what @Elkanah was thinking. Literally any target would have been better than Karnage. Well, we have to live with it now. Okay, so there's 22 players left alive right now.

Unless there is some magnificent trolling going on, @The Young Pyromancer is probably not Bleeder. Still, they are a safe bet to lynch, since they are claiming to be a Constable. Bartenders please shoot this man. I don't believe we should have a go between with the Elims and Winsting. Once we've taken care of Bleeder, the Elims have every reason to take Winsting out, and while we can technically protect him from the Elim kill, it would be extremely dificult. If Pyro survives the Bartender kill, perhaps we'll re-examine the non-Bleeder assumption.

I will exclude @Dot from the list of Bleeder candidates. Simply put, they haven't been on the Shard since Tuesday, so there's no way they could be submitting the necessary kills. Likewise, @Hammond42 was inactive, so @Megasif cannot be Bleeder.

I will also exclude @little wilson from the list. They are an Impersonator and a Gossip, and thus cannot be Bleeder as well. I presume they're going to use their power, which is why they are being flippant about voting for themselves.

I keep coming back to the lack of the Day 1 Bleeder kill. @DeTess claimed Cycle 2 that a Stalker contacted him in a PM, saying that @Furamirionind targeted @Araris Valerian. Considering that Fura flipped Elim, that all checks out. I'm still wondering if DeTess is actually a Stalker and made up a PM, or if someone else is the actual Stalker. We also know that Elkanah targeted Araris, but that turned out to be a dead end, since Elkanah was actually a Smuggler. Araris was the only person who died that cycle, and surviving a kill would have appeared in the writeup. There are four possibilities I can see:

1. Bleeder scanned someone, rather than killing. I find this possibility unlikely. Killing is inherently more beneficial to Bleeder, because it still reduces the suspect pool for Flogs, while weakening the other factions. It's not impossible, but I'm not going to dwell on this possibility.
2. Bleeder attacked Araris. Again, this feels unlikely. It would mean Araris has gotten a serious reputation, because both the serial killer and the elims tried to kill him, and a villager removed his vote. If that's the case, poor Araris. I can't rule it out entirely, but I'll move on.
3. Bleeder's kill was blocked by an Escort. At this point, I would recommend any Escort's who used that action Cycle 1 to reveal themselves. That could be the key to revealing Bleeder's true identity. Based on the number of asleep people, two Escorts used their action on Cycle 1. If you are one of those two, now is the time to reveal your role.
4. Bleeder was inactive Cycle 1. This requires a player who forgot to send an action during the first cycle, but has been active ever since. The only player I can see doing that is @Bugsy. His only post Cycle 1 was apologizing because he had an essay due. I can see a scenario where Bugsy as Bleeder posts that quick snippet, but fails to send in an action.

I find Case 3 particularly appealing, but since I did not have the ability to roleblock anyone, I can't contribute much. I see Case 4 as another possibility, so my vote goes on Bugsy for now.

[little wilson she/her]

8 minutes ago, Sart said:

I will also exclude @little wilson from the list. They are an Impersonator and a Gossip, and thus cannot be Bleeder as well. I presume they're going to use their power, which is why they are being flippant about voting for themselves.

..........whaaaaaaaaaa

and actually me was thinking about impersonating someone to vote on me because chaos. :))))))

sawwy rae. me made you vote on straw c1. but me didnt so anything since so all that vote stuff c2 was others. there many vote manip people. me not special. :((

Quote

Bleeder was inactive Cycle 1. This requires a player who forgot to send an action during the first cycle, but has been active ever since. The only player I can see doing that is @Bugsy. His only post Cycle 1 was apologizing becaBleeder was inactive Cycle 1. This requires a player who forgot to send an action during the first cycle, but has been active ever since. The only player I can see doing that is @Bugsy. His only post Cycle 1 was apologizing because he had an essay due. I can see a scenario where Bugsy as Bleeder posts that quick snippet, but fails to send in an action.use he had an essay due. I can see a scenario where Bugsy as Bleeder posts that quick snippet, but fails to send in an action.

me gotsa generally good feel about the bug-sy buuut you kinda right. hmmmmm

1 hour ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

I mean....I guess? xD not super helpful tho:P literally no other suspicions?

Quote

 

random quote box not going bye bye cuz me on phone. u shud luk @ me pohst agin. wite txt ftw

 

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

24 minutes ago, Sart said:

@A Joe in the Bush If Winsting dies the turn after Bleeder dies, does Bleeder still win? What happens if both Bleeder and Winsting die on the same turn? Also, does Winsting gain the Gambling Tycoon's extra life?

Bleeder cannot win while dead, and all kills happen simultaneously. So once Bleeder dies, this becomes a regular game of Sanderson elimination. If they both die on the same turn then the game continues. Winsting does not gain the passive abilities of the Tycoon or Gossip.

[Bugsy he/him]

29 minutes ago, Sart said:

4. Bleeder was inactive Cycle 1. This requires a player who forgot to send an action during the first cycle, but has been active ever since. The only player I can see doing that is @Bugsy. His only post Cycle 1 was apologizing because he had an essay due. I can see a scenario where Bugsy as Bleeder posts that quick snippet, but fails to send in an action.

I didn't have the time I needed to useful to the lynch on Cycle 1, but I found enough time to post and let you all know where I'd be. It'd have been kinda dumb for me to do that and not use my action that turn, especially if I had a role as big as Bleeder  

I can confirm I did take an action on Cycle 1, and an extortionist redirected it so I targeted myself. I don't know who that extortionist was, but they can verify that claim if they're willing to make themselves known. 

My best guess is that your cases 2 or 3 happened. Pyro seems to believe that Araris was double tapped, and the escorts seem to be the most rational alternative if that isn't true. 

Edited May 31, 2020 by Bugsy

[Mat he/him]

33 minutes ago, Sart said:

I will also exclude @little wilson from the list. They are an Impersonator and a Gossip, and thus cannot be Bleeder as well. I presume they're going to use their power, which is why they are being flippant about voting for themselves.

Huh, didn't know about the impersonator part. Wilson

Right now I am going with Archivist's comment on how Devotary is suspect for Bleeder because of their meddling in the first cycle. I quoted Archivist earlier this cycle if anyone wants to read that, on my first post today.

Also, to help with Sart's third option, I was targeted by an Escort C1. I am not Bleeder, if I was I would not be admitting to being targeted. Therefore whichever escort targeted me C1 please reveal yourself. Then the other escort will know who they targeted C1. This will be Bleeder.

Edited May 31, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[Bugsy he/him]

Hmm. Actually, Sart, I'm rather suspicious of you at this point. 

34 minutes ago, Sart said:

Bartenders please shoot this man. I don't believe we should have a go between with the Elims and Winsting. Once we've taken care of Bleeder, the Elims have every reason to take Winsting out, and while we can technically protect him from the Elim kill, it would be extremely dificult. If Pyro survives the Bartender kill, perhaps we'll re-examine the non-Bleeder assumption.

You know perfectly well that if a Bartender targets Pyro, the elims will likely have their bodyguard protect him the same night. Yet you say that if he survives the kill, you'd consider lynching him as a Bleeder candidate. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense from the perspective of anyone but someone trying to accomplish a mislynch, and the only person who wants a mislynch right now is Bleeder. 

Also, you don't want the elims knowing who Winsting is, which puts him entirely in the line of fire for the night kill these next few cycles. Again, that's not a fantastic outcome for anyone but Bleeder, since it risks an instant loss for both factions on a single unlucky kill order.

You also know Wilson's Impersonator role, and Bleeder has a role scan as one of her abilities. Wilson's got a reputation like the one you talked about Araris not having, and it'd make sense for Bleeder!You to scan her C1 if you didn't want to risk killing the Dowser or the 8th Octant Constable. 

So, yeah. Sart, at least for now.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

15 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

You also know Wilson's Impersonator role, and Bleeder has a role scan as one of her abilities. Wilson's got a reputation like the one you talked about Araris not having, and it'd make sense for Bleeder!You to scan her C1 if you didn't want to risk killing the Dowser or the 8th Octant Constable. 

Yeah, I agree. Sart's been setting me off all game. The Wilson thing's especially weird. Maybe Sart forgot that Wilson only claimed gossip?

---

Still looking for a Winsting claim! Or maybe I've already got one? Who knows?

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

wite txt ftw

Good to know, good to know... decipher success.

Anyone willing to claim to have targeted me C1 with their escort ability yet?

Edited June 1, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Sart said:

I keep coming back to the lack of the Day 1 Bleeder kill. [DeTess] claimed Cycle 2 that a Stalker contacted him in a PM, saying that [Fura] targeted [Araris]. Considering that Fura flipped Elim, that all checks out. I'm still wondering if DeTess is actually a Stalker and made up a PM, or if someone else is the actual Stalker. We also know that Elkanah targeted Araris, but that turned out to be a dead end, since Elkanah was actually a Smuggler. Araris was the only person who died that cycle, and surviving a kill would have appeared in the writeup. There are four possibilities I can see:

1. Bleeder scanned someone, rather than killing. I find this possibility unlikely. Killing is inherently more beneficial to Bleeder, because it still reduces the suspect pool for Flogs, while weakening the other factions. It's not impossible, but I'm not going to dwell on this possibility.
2. Bleeder's kill was blocked by an Escort. At this point, I would recommend any Escort's who used that action Cycle 1 to reveal themselves. That could be the key to revealing Bleeder's true identity. Based on the number of asleep people, two Escorts used their action on Cycle 1. If you are one of those two, now is the time to reveal your role.

That Stalker was me, as DeTess claimed in thread.

Case 1 is actually reasonably likely, as there was a 2/29 chance of instantly losing by accidentally killing Dowser or the 5th Octant Constable. A cautious Bleeder would be willing to delay killing until her actual targets were found, which has the added benefit of not reducing the Bleeder suspect pool.

Escorts will be useful later on. Announcing in thread seems unnecessary when there are people it's relatively safe to PM. Having the people who were escorted claim, as Matrim did, should work better, with a non-claim being reasonable cause for suspicion. If the escortees do claim truthfully, I don't think it's necessary for the escort to claim except to prove they aren't Bleeder.

1 hour ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Right now I am going with Archivist's comment on how Devotary is suspect for Bleeder because of their meddling in the first cycle. I quoted Archivist earlier this cycle if anyone wants to read that, on my first post today.

Everyone only gets one action per cycle, so I could not have stalked Elkanah if I was Bleeder and attacked Karnage.

54 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

Also, you don't want the elims knowing who Winsting is, which puts him entirely in the line of fire for the night kill these next few cycles. Again, that's not a fantastic outcome for anyone but Bleeder, since it risks an instant loss for both factions on a single unlucky kill order.

You also know Wilson's Impersonator role, and Bleeder has a role scan as one of her abilities. Wilson's got a reputation like the one you talked about Araris not having, and it'd make sense for Bleeder!You to scan her C1 if you didn't want to risk killing the Dowser or the 8th Octant Constable. 

I do think it makes sense for Winsting to claim to the elims. They're a useful role, but the risk of him being accidentally hit by the elim kill is too high, and I doubt the elims would be willing to stop killing until Bleeder's dead.

Wilson basically had to be an impersonator. With Elkanah presumably telling the truth about soothing Araris C1, the impersonator who moved Rae's vote had to have been someone who voted for Straw C1, and Wilson is the only living player to have done so. 

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Escorts will be useful later on. Announcing in thread seems unnecessary when there are people it's relatively safe to PM. Having the people who were escorted claim, as Matrim did, should work better, with a non-claim being reasonable cause for suspicion. If the escortees do claim truthfully, I don't think it's necessary for the escort to claim except to prove they aren't Bleeder.

The problem with this is that if Bleeder did get targeted by an escort C1, then they most certainly won't speak up. We need the escorts to speak up on who they targeted so we can narrow it down the other way, as when it comes to finding Bleeder the escorts should have no problem speaking up.

3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Everyone only gets one action per cycle, so I could not have stalked Elkanah if I was Bleeder and attacked Karnage.

This... is 100% true. The cycle number doesn't work out for you to have done all the things that Bleeder supposedly did, if you are a Stalker. @DeTess, confirmation?

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Good analysis Devotary!

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

The problem with this is that if Bleeder did get targeted by an escort C1, then they most certainly won't speak up. We need the escorts to speak up on who they targeted so we can narrow it down the other way, as when it comes to finding Bleeder the escorts should have no problem speaking up.

The escorts know who they targeted(unless extortionists came into play, since escorts aren't an information gathering role and likely won't get notification that they actually blocked the person they targeted), so if an escort's target doesn't speak up that's cause for an escort to call them on it. A player claiming escort is unlikely to be Bleeder, but a renowned scan would be necessary to confirm, and it is possible for there to be a bartender/escort out there.

Edit: People who were escorted C2 are less likely to be Bleeder than those escorted C1, since again, Bleeder very well might have chosen to scan someone C1.

Edited June 1, 2020 by Devotary of Spontaneity