Long Game 73: The Forgotten Coup

[Araris Valerian]

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Araris - that post on the Striker-Gears clash is incredibly wishy-washy and appears to be extremely gerrymandered towards voting on Striker, coming from a player who has consistently voted on Gears on every single day (D1, D3, mentioned as suspicion N1 -Edit: Correction, I meant mentioned as suspicion N3, which just makes this look worse in my opinion) Gears showed up as a vote candidate, including against Connie. There's a shift from 'Gears is suspicious' to 'Gears has strong justification' - really? What is it? Because the only way Gears shows up as having strong justification is if and only if Gears thinks Striker is Evil. Lying about the clock is not itself sufficient grounds to deem a player Evil. And for the record, I know two other players who tried for the clock and failed. Unclear to me how the deception would've been obvious. So the bottom line of that post: 'Gears is suspicious, TUO is suspicious, but I'm going to go for Striker, who has done the same thing TUO did in my analysis, and also, Evil Gears should've been more thoughtful.' - Evil Gears does have a reason to: instigating a FFA

My vote on Striker over Gears comes from my strong opinion that elims often prioritize hiding over voting out key villagers. Gears's move doesn't help him hide, and stinks of overeager villager. Striker and TUO made "safer" votes that feel like predatory elims.

On a related note, votes and suspicions in the early game tend to be ill-informed. In particular, my D1 vote on Gears had no justification at all, and we talked about my current mindset, which I think you can agree was somewhat wishy-washy prior to the events of today, which I think carry more weight than the N1 kill profile thing.

[StrikerEZ]

1 hour ago, Alvron said:

Here's the thing though.  If you wanted to keep it secret that you had the clock then why did you say you tried and failed to take it?  Why not just give your advice about keeping it a secret and leave it at that?
There was no reason for you to claim your action as you did unless you were trying to show you took an action and thus couldn't have made the kill.

4 hours ago, Archer said:

I said anything at all because I’d already said that I was going to go for the clock. I did say that I was going to in thread N3, right? I thought I mentioned that I was going to actually go for it after D3 I changed my mind, which led to no one getting it. The reason I claimed my action like that at all was to obfuscate the fact that I got the clock so the elims couldn’t just take it from me. It’d be the same if I was doing a LoW and instead claimed that someone else was doing a LoW to make it harder for the elims to RB me. Lying != elim behavior. 

[STINK]

35 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

stinks

hey xoxo

[The Unknown Ajah]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

I'm gonna be a bit busy today, so I probably won't post (much) here until this evening.

That being said, I'll up the pressure on The Unknown Order. @The Unknown Order, any suspicions to share besides following Gears onto Striker? Any reason we should avoid killing you? Any reason you've forgotten to use the map so many times?

One time I drew a LoW, another (today) I completely forgot and didn't submit any action, I'm taking another map today, and I'm going to use both on consecutive nights. I don't have many suspicions, but I could maybe put together a list.

[Archer]

2 hours ago, Ventyl said:

I told Striker I thought Connie was the Thief due to some things they said in PMs. Striker said they weren’t. 

Also, why would elim!me point out that I’m suspicious because of my vote on Illwei?

edit:

Furthermore, why would my fellow elims do something that would implicate me in such a way?

Your argument is you said to Striker that Connie (Rithmatist) seemed like the thief. Striker said no, they aren't. This was based on the fact that Connie took an action in the same round a robbery happened. Why would allowing you to think Connie is the thief be advantageous to village!Striker? It's false, and disinformation hurts the village. On the flip side, Elim!Striker has an incentive to let you think Connie was the Thief. No one has called for a thief exe in this game. Stink has been open thiefing and no one had taken issue with it. It would be a safe role for an Elim to be believed to have, and possibly prevent them from being exed. 

I don't think this is a good reason to sus Striker. If you're village, I think you're mistakenly thinking Striker used doc knowledge to know Connie wasn't a thief. If so, I'm sure Striker would be happy to walk you through his reasoning. If you're an Elim, this looks like an excuse to cast a vote, either to bus or vote a villager when an Elim is in danger. I'm certain one of the candidates right now is an Elim. I might move to one of those wagons later, I just want to document what I believe is a bad vote. 

Double bluff. Someone was gonna say it, it might has well be you. 

Edit: I just realized that what's really bugging me about this is along with Gears', this is the second bad vote on Striker this round. I don't know what's behind them, but I don't like the trend. 

 

I have completely lost track of how many protective items we have. Are people running low? I'd assumed we have 5 to 10 in village hands at the moment, but that's not based on any data. 

Are people drawing LoW this round or are we counting on the clock? We should get that cleared up. Striker might have to pass it to get it used. 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Archer

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

2 hours ago, The Unknown Order said:

One time I drew a LoW, another (today) I completely forgot and didn't submit any action, I'm taking another map today, and I'm going to use both on consecutive nights. I don't have many suspicions, but I could maybe put together a list.

OH my... this is uhh, very suspicious. Okay, seeing this, I’d rather CM The Unknown Order in favor of Striker. Though, @StrikerEZ please give me a detailed explanation about the whole thief thing, cause you know I’m not good at figuring stuff like that out.

EDIT;

400th post! yay

Edited February 8, 2021 by Ventyl

[StrikerEZ]

Okay, so, I'm going to make some reads right now. Ignoring the fact that I'm being voted on right now because it's D4 and I'm just glad I've lasted this long to begin with.

(Keep in mind I haven't done any deep reads of the thread or anything, so this is what I can remember from vibes while I've been reading throughout the game, both in thread and in PMs)

• Gears: Okay, so, I haven't liked how much they've been like "oh, here's what the elims probably did," with regards to whether they did the N1 kill or double tapped Quinn. It honestly feels like he's trying to not lie about the fact that he knows why the elims did what they did. And now, this play with the clock. I grabbed the clock last night after no one grabbed it D3. I was originally going to grab it D3, but ended up deciding against it because I figured other people would be going for it as well. Once it was still around, I decided to go for it again. I feel like I must've said that in thread, but if I didn't, please call me out on that. As for what Gears himself did, I think it makes the most sense as an elim play. If he was a villager, he'd have to be very confident that I'm an elim for him to come out and call me on the lie. If he's a villager, he should've realized that if I was also a villager, calling me out on this would let the elims know that I have the clock. If he's an elim, it doesn't matter if he lets everyone know as the elims already know and he can use the fact I lied (reasonably so, I would say) to get people to try and shrek me. As of right now, he is my strongest elim read.
   
• Ashbringer: So, I don't have much of a read on him honestly. Like me and Ventyl, he tunneled on Illwei quite a bit. I know from personal experience that it is easy for a villager to tunnel on someone and have trouble getting out of the tunnel. Honestly just ask Fifth about him and tunneling if you're even more curious; there's a reason he often has the title of Honorary Elim.  As for Ash himself, he hasn't done much that's stuck in my memory besides claiming that he was stolen from. Which is NAI in my opinion. It benefits both the village and elims to know that the Thief wasn't taking items from the supply D1. Overall, slight village, but subject to further review if my other elim suspects turn up village.
   
• Lotus: Honestly remember nothing she has done so far. Which, at this point in the game, is starting to worry me. Null/elim because I feel like at least one elim is hiding in the inactive/low activity player group, as per usual.
   
• Flyingbooks: Once again another player that I don't remember much on, so falling into the null/elim pile for the same reasons as Lotus. And if there are major villager actions that they have done, feel free to let me know about them (same for anyone that goes into null/elim for these reasons).
   
• Archer: I am absolutely certain that they are the NR. I see no reason why the true NR, in a situation where Archer and Devo and Araris are all actually elims together, wouldn't have come forward at this point. Unless the current NR has decided they want to just throw their lot in with the elims already, but I find that unlikely for most players who are playing this game. Strongest village read, though obviously that will have to be revised if/when the Shadowblaze shows up.
   
• Burnt Spaghetti: Once again, null/elim because she hasn't done much and has been lying low (though I will give her the benefit of the doubt for now since she seems busy IRL) and I could see a world in where she makes the kill choices that have happened so far. 
   
• @Ventyl: First, I'm going to explain what happened in our PM. As several of you out there are aware by now, I spent the first few cycles dedicating a significant amount of time figuring out who the thief might be. This ultimately winded up being a waste as Stink was apparently claiming Thief pretty openly, according to the late Illwei (in a PM) and Stink himself. At some point, I told Ventyl that I had narrowed down the Thief to one of a few candidates, which wasn't too hard. All I had to do was look at who took items from the camp supply on Days when we knew the Thief had stolen from someone. By the end of D2, I'd narrowed the Thief down to SoR, Burnt, or Stink. A little after I told Ventyl I'd narrowed the Thief down to one of three people (not telling him who they were), he asked me if Connie was one of them, and I told him no. He asked if I could tell him more, and I said it really wasn't that hard to figure out who the Thief possibly was. 
  Now, I'm going to talk about why he is one of my strong elim reads. The fact he's just been mostly following other people's reads, his immediate backing down if someone points that out, his wishy-washy voting patterns, and the fact that he seems to be trying his best not to vote on Gears right now, my strongest elim read.
   
• The Unknown Order: So, I'm conflicted on TUO. On the one hand, I can understand forgetting to put in actions. And I can understand wanting to keep grabbing maps to help the village out. But at the same time, he's just been giving me really odd vibes, and it took him awhile to really get convinced that using the maps during the Night is the best time to use them, as it lets us see who grabs the new items during the Day. Plus his vote sheeping me reads as really odd to me. I always try to at least add some reasoning of my own if I'm following someone else's vote as a villager. Slight elim.
   
• Araris Valerian: So, I trusted Araris for a very long time because his plans on how to protect the camp seemed very village to me. But one of his latest posts, the one where he ends up voting on me, has really thrown me off. He spent most of that post basically just talking about Gears then voting on me. And I disagree with him that elims prefer to hide rather than be out there. One just needs to look at Aman or even myself to know that elim players don't always hide. Speaking of which, even if elim players do tend to want to hide, how has anything I've been doing this game been me hiding? Slight elim
   
• Alvron: I haven't really played enough with Alv to be able to accurately guess his alignment based on past behavior. But, looking purely at what he's done this game, I think I'm leaning slight village on him. Seems perfectly in character for him to end up deciding to go for the gun, and I like his reasoning about when to use the map. We talked a bit in PMs about this, and he was really reasonable about it and helped me realize that elims would want to use the maps during the Day and would want to make us wait to use them as well.
   
• Shard of Reading: Like I've said with other players that I don't remember much of and/or are low activity, I'm putting SoR as null/elim. Look at the null/elim players later in the game. The longer you've gone without giving much, if any, AI information, the more sus that is.
   
• Random Bystander: They've been speaking somewhat more sporadically, but I have noticed that they, too, seemed wary of using the maps during the Night, though it does seem like they might've been the one to use the map N3. At the same time, they seem to come out most when they're being suspected, and seem to be really concerned about people suspecting them. Slight elim for those two things combined, though I think either one of them alone would not be enough to convince me of their elimy-ness.
   
• TJ Shade: So, I've grown less and less sure of TJ as the game's gone on, but I do think he is still more likely village than not. I just don't have many thoughts on him so far, which is surprising. But what I do remember from D1-D2 vibes is a slight village lean, though I will gladly relook him over if it's near the end and we haven't caught a whole lot of elims and he's still alive.
   
• Devotary of Spontaneity: So, in terms of activity levels, they're acting like their normal self. But I do think their voting patterns have been odd, plus they've been voting earlier than they normally do. Plus, I think the idea of a Gears/Devo team (meaning a team containing those two plus Connie and at least one other player) makes a lot of sense. I think both Gears and Devo are pragmatic enough to decide to go for not killing on N1, if that is indeed what happened that Night. Slight elim.
   
• Kasimir: My RP buddy! (Sorry I haven't been doing much RP; I should do more ) So, I trust him so far. He has demonstrably defended the camp multiple times when he didn't really have to. Plus he gives me very village!Kas vibes in our PMs. I guess the one thing going against him is that he hasn't switched into analysis!Kas mode yet, though I do hope he doesn't have to.  Strong village. 
   
• STINK: The Thief. I don't see a world in which Stink isn't actually the Thief at this point. And, from what I've heard, it seems like he's pretty close to completing his wincon. So, if anyone wanted to, they could pass bribes Stink's way to help him out.
   
• Mist: I have not been able to get a read on Mist at all this game. The fact that they're doing everything by RNG is really fun, but I can't quite get any reads out of it. So, into the null/elim pile. 

That...took me so long. Granted, I did take a break to go eat dinner at one point. Anyway, this is probably close to 2000 words. And with that, I will probably be done for a bit. If you need me, tag me.

EDIT: Realized I didn't change something after switching around the categories I used.

Edited February 8, 2021 by StrikerEZ

[Araris Valerian]

Okay, I agree with basically all of Striker’s reads (barring Ash and maybe Ventyl), which is enough for me to retract my vote for now. I’d rather vote out TUO as things stand. But honestly, I’m sort of comfortable with any of TUO, Striker, or Gears this cycle.

[STINK]

if 2 people gimme valuable items this cycle im out with just bribes rather than any more nefarious valuables so

[Gears]

Striker because 1. I am a fool, as always, and 2. The tide has turned towards my other suspicion, Order. Striker, I should have considered the vil!Striker PoV. 

---

The Servant of the Mad God stood above a prison of chalk, watching the Chalklings tear each other apart. This batch was remarkably resilient, surviving for over eight minutes. Or perhaps they simply did less damage. He would have to mix batches to confirm. As a further test, he pulled out a handful of powdered gemstone and let it fall on the Chalklings. The previous batch had reacted negatively. This batch seemed to be inert.

[Kasimir]

3 hours ago, Archer said:

Are people drawing LoW this round or are we counting on the clock? We should get that cleared up. Striker might have to pass it to get it used. 

As Duncan had said consistently, he was in favour of using the clock as soon as possible. His view was that half the problem was getting a Rithmatist's hands on the clock in the first place; the other half was trying to retain control of the clock before Respected Madman or the Forgotten or a pile-up of Lines of Revocation caused the clock to vanish again. He especially hoped there would be no Lines of Revocation pile-up: they needed all the chalk they could get to keep defending the camp, as well as check up on their fellow Rithmatists, and even defend themselves.

6 hours ago, Alvron said:

Here's the thing though.  If you wanted to keep it secret that you had the clock then why did you say you tried and failed to take it?  Why not just give your advice about keeping it a secret and leave it at that?
There was no reason for you to claim your action as you did unless you were trying to show you took an action and thus couldn't have made the kill.

After some thought, Duncan tentatively agreed with Blackbane on the point: Frederick explicitly saying that he had attempted and failed to claim the clock was clearly intended to indicate that Frederick couldn't have killed Wei. This, though, had turned out to be a moot point since the Servant had discovered that Frederick had seized the clock, after all. The issue was that Frederick had publicly declared the previous night that he would be going for the clock (Duncan wasn't sure their ma'd raised such a reckless lad, but you never knew.) The way Duncan saw it, it was especially glaring in the light of other people who had gone for the clock not having mentioned it. Whether it was malicious or not was something Duncan was still making up his mind on: he supposed that as the only person declared publicly as going for the clock, Frederick could've been trying to make the Forgotten guess. Or he could be trying to appear innocent. 

5 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

My vote on Striker over Gears comes from my strong opinion that elims often prioritize hiding over voting out key villagers. Gears's move doesn't help him hide, and stinks of overeager villager. Striker and TUO made "safer" votes that feel like predatory elims.

On a related note, votes and suspicions in the early game tend to be ill-informed. In particular, my D1 vote on Gears had no justification at all, and we talked about my current mindset, which I think you can agree was somewhat wishy-washy prior to the events of today, which I think carry more weight than the N1 kill profile thing.

The thing was, Duncan agreed in principle with Elysian. Matt [OOC: Meta] had taught him, on his last tour on Nebrask, before the day had drowned in blood and Forgotten malice, to keep his suspicions fluid. But his argument wasn't that Elysian's suspicions should be static, because they bloody well shouldn't be! ( ) His issue was that given a consistent pattern of behaviour where Elysian voted on the Servant at every available opportunity, and had expressed suspicions of the Servant all the way through the past day and night, and had even explicitly stated he agreed with Frederick's reasoning on why the Servant was suspicious - in light of all of that, a sudden swing to Frederick within the same post that stated the Servant was suspicious was in itself strange. 

He wasn't sure about Forgotten prioritising hiding, though. Duncan's own thought on the matter was that Forgotten behaviour depended on the psychological profile of the individual. [OOC: Odd take here: I generally agree with you, and it does feel a bit too audacious if Gears was Evil, but I also think that different players have different Evil profiles, which only comes up to me because of my recent backreading for Meta's game balance tips.] He had been, of late, running over the events of that night on Nebrask in his head. Wyatt, and his lies. The memories felt more vivid without the numbing fog of the alcohol. Duncan hadn't been this dry in so long. He hated it, hated the way the shadows all seemed to menace him. Hated the way he looked over his shoulder for Forgotten.

Nightmares, when he did sleep. Dig in his grave. Matt, broken upon the earth. Rlint, the brave officer on the frontlines, powerless before the Forgotten.

Duncan had never been there. Good soldiers follow orders, Wyatt had said, even though they'd whispered he hadn't, and that's why he was among them. Duncan shoved his shaking hands in his coat pockets and vainly wished that....

Wished that....

He agreed about Frederick's and Atreco's votes being safer, though. His leading suspect for the moment continued to be Atreco, though he was starting to eye Shimamura Sakura as well for the swings and felt uncomfortable about occupying the same voting bloc as Elysian and Faleast [OOC: Sorry guys, but when I suspect people, and then they vote or express the willingness to vote alongside me, I start smelling a rat  ]

Edited February 8, 2021 by Kasimir
formatting

[StrikerEZ]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

After some thought, Duncan tentatively agreed with Blackbane on the point: Frederick explicitly saying that he had attempted and failed to claim the clock was clearly intended to indicate that Frederick couldn't have killed Wei. This, though, had turned out to be a moot point since the Servant had discovered that Frederick had seized the clock, after all. The issue was that Frederick had publicly declared the previous night that he would be going for the clock (Duncan wasn't sure their ma'd raised such a reckless lad, but you never knew.) The way Duncan saw it, it was especially glaring in the light of other people who had gone for the clock not having mentioned it. Whether it was malicious or not was something Duncan was still making up his mind on: he supposed that as the only person declared publicly as going for the clock, Frederick could've been trying to make the Forgotten guess. Or he could be trying to appear innocent. 

Okay, so, I was trying to claim that I hadn't got the clock so that the elims wouldn't know who to go after to get the clock from someone. I figured that it would by me some time to have them try and figure out who got it before I decide I need to use it. But, that's not going to happen now.

22 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

He agreed about Frederick's and Atreco's votes being safer, though.

What about my vote is safe though? I've given reasoning for suspecting Gears before, and I gave reasoning this time. 

[Kasimir]

24 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

What about my vote is safe though? I've given reasoning for suspecting Gears before, and I gave reasoning this time. 

[OOC: I'd say that I regard safety to be a separate dimension from having reasoning or otherwise.

I could lay down a reasoned post incriminating Archer as a Forgotten for his D1 defense of Connie against Illwei, and his D3 voting. It would not be a safe vote, given Archer's so far uncontested Non-Rithmatist claim. But ex hypothesi, it would have robust reasoning. Safe in the sense that Gears has come up in the crosshairs repeatedly as a grinch candidate. Village-wise, you could really be following robust reasoning to select a grinch candidate. But if you're Forgotten and Gears isn't, then Gears would probably not be a bad target to paint with suspicion given how many of us have expressed suspicion of him before.

Incidentally, Sart clarified in response to a PM question that a converted Non-Rithmatist ceases to be able to teach specialisations. If we stop being able to identify Archer's next student, among other things, we should be suspicious.

I think one thing the N1 no kill reasoning is missing from everyone so far is: what changed?

We're saying the Forgotten found it a good strategy to not kill, because anyway their objective isn't to kill but to cause the camp to be overrun, and misgrinching Rithmatists helps them, rather than us since kills don't affect defense except in terms of reducing the number of available defenders. Okay, and if this is the case, why was Quinn dead N2? Was the plan not still viable? If your plan is good, there is no reason to abandon it. And yet we have a kill streak from Quinn to Illwei. What shifted their tactical considerations?

If we can't find why their tactical considerations should have shifted, I submit it's more likely in my eyes they hit a LoF.

Edited to add: If unclear, I don't suspect Archer currently, beyond Urbain paranoia. But I do think he is a useful illustration of the difference between safety and reasoning.

Edited to add #2: In fact, I'm gonna come right out and say that my view is the Forgotten won't be hiding per se - oh, some definitely will, but given that misgrinches are their primary tool for ruining our defense, they're going to play the control kill + hiding game. This does reduce my suspicion of Gears a little, though I'm not really going to yell or get upset if he gets grinched.]

Edited February 8, 2021 by Kasimir
formatting x100000

[+Lotus]

Devotary
 

They’ve been quiet (which, yes, I know is kinda a normal thing for them) and I’m hoping that voting on em might get a responce

[Random Bystander]

2 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Okay, so, I'm going to make some reads right now. Ignoring the fact that I'm being voted on right now because it's D4 and I'm just glad I've lasted this long to begin with.

(Keep in mind I haven't done any deep reads of the thread or anything, so this is what I can remember from vibes while I've been reading throughout the game, both in thread and in PMs)

• Gears: Okay, so, I haven't liked how much they've been like "oh, here's what the elims probably did," with regards to whether they did the N1 kill or double tapped Quinn. It honestly feels like he's trying to not lie about the fact that he knows why the elims did what they did. And now, this play with the clock. I grabbed the clock last night after no one grabbed it D3. I was originally going to grab it D3, but ended up deciding against it because I figured other people would be going for it as well. Once it was still around, I decided to go for it again. I feel like I must've said that in thread, but if I didn't, please call me out on that. As for what Gears himself did, I think it makes the most sense as an elim play. If he was a villager, he'd have to be very confident that I'm an elim for him to come out and call me on the lie. If he's a villager, he should've realized that if I was also a villager, calling me out on this would let the elims know that I have the clock. If he's an elim, it doesn't matter if he lets everyone know as the elims already know and he can use the fact I lied (reasonably so, I would say) to get people to try and shrek me. As of right now, he is my strongest elim read.
   
• Ashbringer: So, I don't have much of a read on him honestly. Like me and Ventyl, he tunneled on Illwei quite a bit. I know from personal experience that it is easy for a villager to tunnel on someone and have trouble getting out of the tunnel. Honestly just ask Fifth about him and tunneling if you're even more curious; there's a reason he often has the title of Honorary Elim.  As for Ash himself, he hasn't done much that's stuck in my memory besides claiming that he was stolen from. Which is NAI in my opinion. It benefits both the village and elims to know that the Thief wasn't taking items from the supply D1. Overall, slight village, but subject to further review if my other elim suspects turn up village.
   
• Lotus: Honestly remember nothing she has done so far. Which, at this point in the game, is starting to worry me. Null/elim because I feel like at least one elim is hiding in the inactive/low activity player group, as per usual.
   
• Flyingbooks: Once again another player that I don't remember much on, so falling into the null/elim pile for the same reasons as Lotus. And if there are major villager actions that they have done, feel free to let me know about them (same for anyone that goes into null/elim for these reasons).
   
• Archer: I am absolutely certain that they are the NR. I see no reason why the true NR, in a situation where Archer and Devo and Araris are all actually elims together, wouldn't have come forward at this point. Unless the current NR has decided they want to just throw their lot in with the elims already, but I find that unlikely for most players who are playing this game. Strongest village read, though obviously that will have to be revised if/when the Shadowblaze shows up.
   
• Burnt Spaghetti: Once again, null/elim because she hasn't done much and has been lying low (though I will give her the benefit of the doubt for now since she seems busy IRL) and I could see a world in where she makes the kill choices that have happened so far. 
   
• @Ventyl: First, I'm going to explain what happened in our PM. As several of you out there are aware by now, I spent the first few cycles dedicating a significant amount of time figuring out who the thief might be. This ultimately winded up being a waste as Stink was apparently claiming Thief pretty openly, according to the late Illwei (in a PM) and Stink himself. At some point, I told Ventyl that I had narrowed down the Thief to one of a few candidates, which wasn't too hard. All I had to do was look at who took items from the camp supply on Days when we knew the Thief had stolen from someone. By the end of D2, I'd narrowed the Thief down to SoR, Burnt, or Stink. A little after I told Ventyl I'd narrowed the Thief down to one of three people (not telling him who they were), he asked me if Connie was one of them, and I told him no. He asked if I could tell him more, and I said it really wasn't that hard to figure out who the Thief possibly was. 
  Now, I'm going to talk about why he is one of my strong elim reads. The fact he's just been mostly following other people's reads, his immediate backing down if someone points that out, his wishy-washy voting patterns, and the fact that he seems to be trying his best not to vote on Gears right now, my strongest elim read.
   
• The Unknown Order: So, I'm conflicted on TUO. On the one hand, I can understand forgetting to put in actions. And I can understand wanting to keep grabbing maps to help the village out. But at the same time, he's just been giving me really odd vibes, and it took him awhile to really get convinced that using the maps during the Night is the best time to use them, as it lets us see who grabs the new items during the Day. Plus his vote sheeping me reads as really odd to me. I always try to at least add some reasoning of my own if I'm following someone else's vote as a villager. Slight elim.
   
• Araris Valerian: So, I trusted Araris for a very long time because his plans on how to protect the camp seemed very village to me. But one of his latest posts, the one where he ends up voting on me, has really thrown me off. He spent most of that post basically just talking about Gears then voting on me. And I disagree with him that elims prefer to hide rather than be out there. One just needs to look at Aman or even myself to know that elim players don't always hide. Speaking of which, even if elim players do tend to want to hide, how has anything I've been doing this game been me hiding? Slight elim
   
• Alvron: I haven't really played enough with Alv to be able to accurately guess his alignment based on past behavior. But, looking purely at what he's done this game, I think I'm leaning slight village on him. Seems perfectly in character for him to end up deciding to go for the gun, and I like his reasoning about when to use the map. We talked a bit in PMs about this, and he was really reasonable about it and helped me realize that elims would want to use the maps during the Day and would want to make us wait to use them as well.
   
• Shard of Reading: Like I've said with other players that I don't remember much of and/or are low activity, I'm putting SoR as null/elim. Look at the null/elim players later in the game. The longer you've gone without giving much, if any, AI information, the more sus that is.
   
• Random Bystander: They've been speaking somewhat more sporadically, but I have noticed that they, too, seemed wary of using the maps during the Night, though it does seem like they might've been the one to use the map N3. At the same time, they seem to come out most when they're being suspected, and seem to be really concerned about people suspecting them. Slight elim for those two things combined, though I think either one of them alone would not be enough to convince me of their elimy-ness.
   
• TJ Shade: So, I've grown less and less sure of TJ as the game's gone on, but I do think he is still more likely village than not. I just don't have many thoughts on him so far, which is surprising. But what I do remember from D1-D2 vibes is a slight village lean, though I will gladly relook him over if it's near the end and we haven't caught a whole lot of elims and he's still alive.
   
• Devotary of Spontaneity: So, in terms of activity levels, they're acting like their normal self. But I do think their voting patterns have been odd, plus they've been voting earlier than they normally do. Plus, I think the idea of a Gears/Devo team (meaning a team containing those two plus Connie and at least one other player) makes a lot of sense. I think both Gears and Devo are pragmatic enough to decide to go for not killing on N1, if that is indeed what happened that Night. Slight elim.
   
• Kasimir: My RP buddy! (Sorry I haven't been doing much RP; I should do more ) So, I trust him so far. He has demonstrably defended the camp multiple times when he didn't really have to. Plus he gives me very village!Kas vibes in our PMs. I guess the one thing going against him is that he hasn't switched into analysis!Kas mode yet, though I do hope he doesn't have to.  Strong village. 
   
• STINK: The Thief. I don't see a world in which Stink isn't actually the Thief at this point. And, from what I've heard, it seems like he's pretty close to completing his wincon. So, if anyone wanted to, they could pass bribes Stink's way to help him out.
   
• Mist: I have not been able to get a read on Mist at all this game. The fact that they're doing everything by RNG is really fun, but I can't quite get any reads out of it. So, into the null/elim pile. 

That...took me so long. Granted, I did take a break to go eat dinner at one point. Anyway, this is probably close to 2000 words. And with that, I will probably be done for a bit. If you need me, tag me.

EDIT: Realized I didn't change something after switching around the categories I used.

... Why do you care if I defend myself if I am questioned? No one wants to lose the game, and I am just as likely to defend myself as an eliminator, as I am a village. Defending yourself is normal, right? I don't want you to kill me, and that wouldn't change with my alignment. And this is my first game, so I want to get as far as possible without getting voted off. (Yes, I do realize that I am doing what made you suspicious In the first place, but I don't really care.)

Also, the time and thought you put into that post is impressive. I would have just gotten too lazy to finish it and only done about half of that.  I applaud you for your determination. 

[Ashbringer]

1 hour ago, Random Bystander said:

... Why do you care if I defend myself if I am questioned? No one wants to lose the game, and I am just as likely to defend myself as an eliminator, as I am a village. Defending yourself is normal, right? I don't want you to kill me, and that wouldn't change with my alignment. And this is my first game, so I want to get as far as possible without getting voted off. (Yes, I do realize that I am doing what made you suspicious In the first place, but I don't really care.)

I think Kas’s point is that your main contribution is defending yourself, and you generally sit on the sidelines otherwise. Which tends to be considered suspicious iirc.

Any main thoughts on the game? Gears vs Unknown Order? Item suggestions?

[Random Bystander]

6 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I think Kas’s point is that your main contribution is defending yourself, and you generally sit on the sidelines otherwise. Which tends to be considered suspicious iirc.

Any main thoughts on the game? Gears vs Unknown Order? Item suggestions?

Um, ignore the gun? It's what I am doing. I don't want to die, so... Yeah. Pretty self-explanatory. 

[Kasimir]

20 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I think Kas’s point is that your main contribution is defending yourself, and you generally sit on the sidelines otherwise. Which tends to be considered suspicious iirc.

Any main thoughts on the game? Gears vs Unknown Order? Item suggestions?

Duncan raised an eyebrow. "As much as I appreciate your vote of confidence in my analytical commitments," he said, wryly, "I think you have me confused with my little brother. I'm the drunk one here." When he could get alcohol anyway. [OOC: Striker did the reads list, not me  I'm laidback this game, remember?]

[Ashbringer]

14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Duncan raised an eyebrow. "As much as I appreciate your vote of confidence in my analytical commitments," he said, wryly, "I think you have me confused with my little brother. I'm the drunk one here." When he could get alcohol anyway. [OOC: Striker did the reads list, not me  I'm laidback this game, remember?]

Why did I...

Saw you did two big posts and then saw a big quoted post and it just clicked together 

Sorry, Striker, I like your analysis too!

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Given that Striker claimed to be going for the clock last night, Gears must have been trying to confirm that specifically. With a previously stated suspicion of Striker, that would make sense to do. Gears mentioned using a LoM on Araris to confirm that he drew a LoW, although I don't think it was public knowledge that Araris was going to do that N2 until Striker posted right before rollover so it would have been for some other reason.

If Striker wanted to make sure he got the clock without anyone knowing he had it, he wouldn't have claimed to be going for it. Claiming potentially decreases the competition for grabbing it, or increases for people already suspicious of Striker. Claiming an action beforehand trying to show you didn't submit the kill would only work if you get scanned or prove you got an item, so that wouldn't be an especially viable strategy.

Grabbing a map is a neutral action, but using it is village aligned since the extra defense items mean the addition of items benefits the village for than the elims.Witholding a map is unhelpful.

 

 

[The Unknown Ajah]

Could I get a VC @Sart?

[Shard of Reading]

Alrighty, sorry that I've been inactive. I'll try to fix that.

Now, I haven't been online for a few days so I'm just going to go review D3. (Without quoting anything. Because I already read that. I don't want to do that again today.)

@Araris Valerian I know you were asking who added the last defense to the camp. That was me. 

Also, woop! We got a forgotten! (Note to self: Innactive connie=elim)

Now, I think that there is a possibility that the striker/gears stuff is v/v. (That seems the most likely) If it is, then The Unkown Order is elim. If he's village, than I think that striker would be an elim. Mainly, because I think that E!Gears wouldn't come after Striker that hard.

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Shard of Reading said:

Now, I think that there is a possibility that the striker/gears stuff is v/v. (That seems the most likely) If it is, then The Unkown Order is elim.

Could you explain why Striker/Gears being v/v necessitates TUO being elim? And why does TUO being village require one of Gears/Striker to be elim?

[Shard of Reading]

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Could you explain why Striker/Gears being v/v necessitates TUO being elim? And why does TUO being village require one of Gears/Striker to be elim?

Alright, it doesn't make it so it has to be elim, but I was thinking that at least one of them is an elim, and I think that TUO is the most likely.

[|TJ|]

14 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Okay, I agree with basically all of Striker’s reads (barring Ash and maybe Ventyl), which is enough for me to retract my vote for now. I’d rather vote out TUO as things stand. But honestly, I’m sort of comfortable with any of TUO, Striker, or Gears this cycle.

Spoiler