Stick. she/her Posted July 15, 2017 Posted July 15, 2017 (edited) 6 minutes ago, cloudjumper said: There are four or five elims left I seriously doubt they started with 6 elims. 3 or 4 Elims left at this point seems more likely. 6 minutes ago, cloudjumper said: and five neutrals. six neutrals. Why are you assuming the neutrals will side with the elims? Edit: ninjad by orlok Well I guess I'm going to bed now so goodnight everyone Edited July 15, 2017 by _Stick_
cloudjumper he/him Posted July 15, 2017 Posted July 15, 2017 Clearly I need to reevaluate. Should come up with another post in a couple minutes or so.
cloudjumper he/him Posted July 15, 2017 Posted July 15, 2017 (edited) I have reevaluated. Joe(10): Joe, Wilson, Orlok, Elb, BR, Crimsn, Stick, PK, Ecth, Cloud Ecth(4): Seonid, Drake, Flash, Araris If Joe is lynched: 7 to 8 elims/neutrals. 10/8 village or 3/4 elims, 16 village/neutrals If elim!Ecth is lynched: 2-3 elims, 14/15 village/neutral If village!Ecth is lynched: 9-10 elims/neutrals, 7-8 village Inactives: Shqueeves, Arinan I'd rather not stake everything on Ecth being an Elim, so I think I like our odds more if we lynch a neutral. Ecth. Joe. Also, is double posting okay here? Because the post above had very little content, so I was wondering if I could stick an analysis post right under it, or if I should hide it. Edited July 15, 2017 by cloudjumper Edits and stuff
Orlok Tsubodai Posted July 15, 2017 Posted July 15, 2017 Glad to see your reevaluation, Cloud. I think what you've done is absolutely fine. We're late in the game, with sparse posts, and you had very different content in the two posts.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted July 15, 2017 Posted July 15, 2017 @cloudjumper, your vote tally is off. I'm currently voting for Ecthelion, not Drake. And honestly, I think people are making a rather big deal about something that isn't really that big of a deal. It definitely helps the village to hold off on killing neutrals, but the amount that it helps isn't too much. The damage I was worried about has already been done; there has been and likely won't be any productive lynch discussion as a result of the lynch on Joe.
Seonid he/him Posted July 15, 2017 Posted July 15, 2017 (edited) You still haven't answered me @OrlokTsubodai But as a gesture of good faith. Ecth. Joe. If you break faith with us, I will not forget it. Edited July 15, 2017 by Seonid Retracting vote on Ecth
Orlok Tsubodai Posted July 15, 2017 Posted July 15, 2017 @Seonid, with such a threat, you make an implicit assumption that I have already agreed. I haven't got communication with the rest of the neutral players, and certainly can't agree on their behalfs. I think the game will be the most fun for both sides if as neutral players we stay out of it, and give you my word that at present, it is indeed my intention to do just that.
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 16, 2017 Posted July 16, 2017 (edited) 2 hours ago, OrlokTsubodai said: Glad to see your reevaluation, Cloud. I think what you've done is absolutely fine. We're late in the game, with sparse posts, and you had very different content in the two posts. Except it isn't late in the game. *sigh* with such a vote on joe it looks like we're not going to learn anything this turn. Not everyone can be innocent. There are at least 3 more elims left. Probably four, with how many people we started out this game with. That will take until turn 11 to complete if we hit an elim every turn. And I honestly don't know where to start. Ok. Why the heck did the elims kill Asterion? If they had killed someone else, we would have probably lynched aster in one big mislynch (I know I would have). That just seems really weird to me. Furthermore, I think the elims in this game are fairly experienced. They seem completely hidden. I'll have to think some more. And I'm going to go update my analysis document finally, now that I finally have some time to do so. Actually turns out I need to write a talk for church so I'm not even going to get around to that. *sigh* Edited July 16, 2017 by The Flash
Seonid he/him Posted July 16, 2017 Posted July 16, 2017 3 hours ago, OrlokTsubodai said: @Seonid, with such a threat, you make an implicit assumption that I have already agreed. I haven't got communication with the rest of the neutral players, and certainly can't agree on their behalfs. Not at all. I simply note that you have threatened the village by saying that if we don't lynch Joe for you now, you will turn to the Elims to do so. Then you offer vague assurances that if we follow you on lynching Joe, then the neutrals will be free to remain neutral. All I'm saying is that if, after we as the village have honored your request in good faith - sacrificing a turn of our only ability to find the Eliminators to do so, you turn to the Eliminator's side, I will consider you to have acted in bad faith, and react accordingly.
Orlok Tsubodai Posted July 16, 2017 Posted July 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, Seonid said: Not at all. I simply note that you have threatened the village by saying that if we don't lynch Joe for you now, you will turn to the Elims to do so. Then you offer vague assurances that if we follow you on lynching Joe, then the neutrals will be free to remain neutral. All I'm saying is that if, after we as the village have honored your request in good faith - sacrificing a turn of our only ability to find the Eliminators to do so, you turn to the Eliminator's side, I will consider you to have acted in bad faith, and react accordingly. Thanks for the clarity. As I've said, I certainly intend to sit on the sidelines, if only because it maximises the enjoyment of the game for the largest number of players. You have my word that I will not act against either the village or the eliminators unless my win condition is threatened by continued inaction. 1
Jo and the Bush all/any Posted July 16, 2017 Posted July 16, 2017 (edited) On 7/14/2017 at 8:33 PM, Paranoid King said: It's kinda given that if they are blackmailing you, you wouldn't tell us about it. Most neutral win cons hinge on surviving, so if the elims said they'd kill you if you betrayed them, you wouldn't have any way to communicate that to us. Or maybe none of that is happening and I'm just paranoid. My point is just that I couldn't trust elim!neutrals if they said they weren't evil. I should have responded sooner to this. The Elims cannot black mail the Neutrals. In order to make me lose, they have to kill me and then Crimson, wasting two kills that they could more easily spend on villagers in order to win. Orlok and crimsn are already winning, and will continue to win for at least 2 cycles. Elbereth and Stink have also won. that means that Wilson is the only one they can blackmail. they can't for two reasons though. Elbereth isprotecting her, so the elims have to waste two kills to kill her, or one kill to kill me. But If i get killed, the neutrals will immediately lynch her to help her win. And more importantly, this is Wilson we're talking about. she would rather policy suicide to punish the elims for black mail then give in to win. It's ridiculous to actually believe that the neutrals are being blackmailed. Onto actual analysis. All of the below Analysis is based entirely on Day 6. Nothing else. Villagers: Dalinar Kholin, Cloudjumper, Paranoid King, Brightness Radiant, The Flash, Seonid Uncertain: Arinian, Araris, Shqueeves, Drake Marshall, Eliminators: Stick, Ecthelion @The Flash, based on your belief that the Neutrals and elims were working together, and you're willingness to exploit that by making deals with us to get elim names, i think you are a Friend of the ABC. @cloudjumper, based on your apparent lack of interest in the game, and your interest in other games, I think you are a bored villager who has grown tired of the game. You are also willing to lynch Ecthelion, who i think is an Elim. @Shqueeves you haven't spoken this cycle, so i haven't looked at anything you said, so i can't read you. please speak up. @Paranoid King You sound like a villager who has given up completely. you just want the maximum number of players to win at this point, hence why you are helping the neutrals. that makes me think you are a Friend of the ABC @BrightnessRadiant, Crimsn and I worked together to Pm you a lot, and rappidly. we kept you on your toes, and you never slipped up. For that, and your comments this cycle, I read you as a Friend of the ABC. @Arinian you haven't said anything this cycle. Speak up Lad. @Araris Valerian I'm very uncertain about you. You refuse to lynch me, you defend the village rioters, you slightly defended Ecthelion, and overall act extremely neutrally. I don't know what to think of you, and would like for you to answer this Question: Suppose Ecthelion, the only smoker turns out village, will you change your mind about flash and BR being village as well? @Ecthelion III I don't have much of a read on you, but i have reads on both of the claimed rioters, and i think they're rioters. Since you're both willing to lynch me, and a Smoker, that makes me lean Eliminator on you. Can you talk more about why you were willing to lynch me? @Seonid your outright refusal to lynch me, and your negotiations with Orlok have cemented your villagesness in my mind. @Drake Marshallyou haven't spoken much this Cycle. @_Stick_ based on your willingness to lynch me, your implied defense of Ecthelion, and your suspicions, i think you are an Infiltrator. @Dalinar Kholin due to your suspicons, your unwillingness to lynch me, and, most importantly, your post calling out everyone to vote for ecth over me, i firmly believe you are a Friend of the ABC. There's my reads. It's probably my last post of the game. Good luck everyone. A joe in the Bush Ecthelion Edited July 16, 2017 by A Joe in the Bush 2
Araris Valerian he/him Posted July 16, 2017 Posted July 16, 2017 (edited) I didn't defend any rioters. I just pointed out that pursuing a lynch based on roles is silly in a game like this, designed to be pretty straightforward. I honestly don't think Ecthelion is an eliminator. But other people do, and to counter the neutrals, we needed to vote together. Between Flash and BR though, I'm more confident that Flash is a villager. But regardless, I have stronger elim reads on Drake and Stick than on BR. I think this lynch is just like all the other ones; we targeted a villager, so nobody really comes to their defense, and the elims get to sit back and not participate. Edit: So I guess a straightforward answer to your question Joe, is that the result of this lynch won't really change my reads on Flash and BR, particularly to the extent that I would vote on them in the next couple of cycles. Edited July 16, 2017 by Araris Valerian
little wilson she/her Posted July 16, 2017 Posted July 16, 2017 I believe I had a Stars parody request? Here you go: There, out in the Cosmere, A convict running Fallen like Rayse. Fallen like Rayse. Shards be my witness, I never shall yield Till we come face to face. Till we come face to face. He knows his way in the mist; Mine is the way of Ruin. And those who follow the path of Harmony Shall have their reward. And if they fall As The Lord Ruler fell Like compounding In vain! Spikes, In your multitudes Scarce to be counted Filling the darkness With Ruin’s strange might. You are the sentinels, Silent and sure Keeping watch without sight. Keeping watch without sight. You know your place in my soul; You keep his Bands and memories, And each in your alloy Returns and returns And is always the same And if you fall as The Lord Ruler fell, You fall in vain! And so it has been and so it is written In the metal of Harmony That those who falter and those who fall Must pay the price! Shards let me find him That I may see him Dead on the ground! I will never rest. Till then, This I swear, This I swear by the Shards! (I'll fix the spacing of this when I get back on my computer later. Kind of hard to do so on a phone) 7
Stick. she/her Posted July 16, 2017 Posted July 16, 2017 3 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said: @_Stick_ based on your willingness to lynch me, your implied defense of Ecthelion, and your suspicions, i think you are an Infiltrator. Wait why would elims want you lynched?
Haelbarde he/him Posted July 16, 2017 Author Posted July 16, 2017 (edited) Night 6 Pending again, sorry... D: Joe was lynched. He was the Escaped Convict. Tin was burnt and PMs are open. Vote Tally (with history) Joe(10): Joe{1}, Flash{1}, Wilson{1}, Orlok{1}, El{1}, BR{1}, Crimsn{1}, Stick{1}, PK{1}, Ecth{1}, Cloud{2}, Seonid{2} Cloud(0): Flash{2} Ecth(4): Dalinar{1}, Seonid{1}, Flash{3}, Cloud{1}, Araris{2}, Joe{2} Drake(0): Araris{1} Vote Tally Joe(10): Wilson, Orlok, El, BR, Crimsn, Stick, PK, Ecth, Cloud, Seonid Ecth(4): Dalinar Flash, Araris, Joe With me getting to this so late, I'll set rollover at the original later time, so rollover should be ~46 hours from now. Player List Spoiler Jay (The Flash) - has at least two steelminds - a ring, and a helmet Name Name (Straw) - has a name ABC Roleless Albin Brodeur (Jondesu) - Skaa Crew Member ABC Rioter Siv (Cloudjumper) - has unrealistic expectations Luigi (Shqueeves) - roots for the underdog Edmond Dantès (asterion137) - is seeking revenge for a wrongful imprisonment ABC Scavenger Carcer (Paranoid King) - is all for rebelion Dariend Castel (StrikerEZ) - walks a dark path ABC Tineye Roger Elariel (Elenion) - is not the Pauper Noble ABC Smoker Alonine (BrightnessRadiant) - is probably not the real Eponine Alrin (Arinian) Aimes (Araris Valerian) - in above his head, wants to fade away Bartolomeus Teki (randuir) - is slightly suspici... ABC Thug Darius Castel (Ecthelion III) - is self-centered, with a brother Keera Wilde (little Wilson) - fights for the right to be free! Siena Mattel (Seonid) - is running away from love Lukas Fehrweight (Drake Marshall) Altea Meza (Crimsn-Wolf) - here because she was told to Jack (A Joe in the Bush) Escaped Convict Dandi (_Stick_) Kliff (TheMightyLopen) - roped into manning the barricade, possibly by a cousin? ABC Roleless Garshin (Yitzi2) - thinks he's in Elendel when he really isn't... Infiltrator Roleless Rorik (Dalinar Kholin) Mykal (Amanuensis) - is a missionary of the path ABC Scavenger Phil (STINK) - is simply Phil Julie (Arraenae) - is an idealistic student fresh out of college ABC Ringleader Locke Tekiel (OrlokTsubodai) Suterna (Elbereth) Player List (Sorted) Spoiler Jay (The Flash) - has at least two steelminds - a ring, and a helmet Siv (Cloudjumper) - has unrealistic expectations Luigi (Shqueeves) - roots for the underdog Carcer (Paranoid King) - is all for rebelion Alonine (BrightnessRadiant) - is probably not the real Eponine Alrin (Arinian) Aimes (Araris Valerian) - in above his head, wants to fade away Darius Castel (Ecthelion III) - is self-centered, with a brother Keera Wilde (little Wilson) - fights for the right to be free! Siena Mattel (Seonid) - is running away from love Lukas Fehrweight (Drake Marshall) Altea Meza (Crimsn-Wolf) - here because she was told to Dandi (_Stick_) Rorik (Dalinar Kholin) Phil (STINK) - is simply Phil Locke Tekiel (OrlokTsubodai) Suterna (Elbereth) Albin Brodeur (Jondesu) - Skaa Crew Member ABC Rioter Garshin (Yitzi2) - thinks he's in Elendel when he really isn't... Infiltrator Roleless Kliff (TheMightyLopen) - roped into manning the barricade, possibly by a cousin? ABC Roleless Name Name (Straw) - has a name ABC Roleless Mykal (Amanuensis) - is a missionary of the path ABC Scavenger Bartolomeus Teki (randuir) - is slightly suspici... ABC Thug Roger Elariel (Elenion) - is not the Pauper Noble ABC Smoker Julie (Arraenae) - is an idealistic student fresh out of college ABC Ringleader Dariend Castel (StrikerEZ) - walks a dark path ABC Tineye Edmond Dantès (asterion137) - is seeking revenge for a wrongful imprisonment ABC Scavenger Jack (A Joe in the Bush) Escaped Convict Edited July 16, 2017 by Haelbarde 4
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 16, 2017 Posted July 16, 2017 Well at least we have PMs. Maybe we might get some information out of this turn.
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 16, 2017 Posted July 16, 2017 Ok first off thank you Joe for your analysis. I added it to my document. Thank you Wilson for doing that stars parody. I appreciate it Stick, the reason elims would want joe lynched is because it wastes a turn for the village. so I guess the lynch might give us some information. I think the night turn would best be spent doing some analysis by the village. We cannot afford to lynch another villager tomorrow. So let's use our PMs, use my document, trawl through the ridiculously long thread. I know I plan on doing so. We're revolutionaries, we don't just sit around! We FIGHT!! (I didn't actually expect that to go there lol). 2
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted July 17, 2017 Posted July 17, 2017 Well, we lynched the convict. Not much to be said I guess. In some way I'm not sure I approve of using a lynch on someone we know definitely isn't evil... But there are definitely worse things than giving the neutrals all their win conditions. Better that they get their wins from the village than be forced to cut a deal with the elims I suppose. 1
STINK he/him Posted July 17, 2017 Posted July 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said: Well, we lynched the convict. Not much to be said I guess. In some way I'm not sure I approve of using a lynch on someone we know definitely isn't evil... But there are definitely worse things than giving the neutrals all their win conditions. Better that they get their wins from the village than be forced to cut a deal with the elims I suppose. you're very kind 1
Stick. she/her Posted July 17, 2017 Posted July 17, 2017 Well yeah this turn is kinda dead. Sorry D: At least we get to make use of PMs
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 17, 2017 Posted July 17, 2017 (edited) Ok I've created a hit list. Ecthelion. I have already enumbered my suspicions on him. Furthermore it will give us more information. Cloudjumper. For the moment I am still suspicious, but I think there is a possibility of him being cleared if Ecth turns evil. Araris. He's too invisible to ignore forever. His invisibility is a huge advantage, especially if he is an elim. PK. Still suspicious of him based on the various things he's said. Shqueeves. If he hasn't said anything at this point, I'm concerned that it is because he is an elim as well as being new, and just doesn't know what to say. Drake. I'm still a bit suspicious of him, however at this point the list is very much subject to change. Dalinar. However if Ecth turns elim, cancel all suspicions. Stick- many people have expressed suspicion of Stick. However stick has contributed enough to discussion that we shouldn't go after her too soon. BR. I very much doubt she is elim. But all remains to be seen Arinian. Due to his early vote on Yitzi, I also doubt he is elim. Flash- I do have to put myself on the list somewhere. But I feel like I've been contributing enough to show that I am village, despite my inactivity the first day or so. Seonid. I am reading very village on Seonid. The things he says are just... village. Edited July 17, 2017 by The Flash 1
Haelbarde he/him Posted July 18, 2017 Author Posted July 18, 2017 Cycle is ended, PMs are closed, new cycle coming shortly.
Haelbarde he/him Posted July 18, 2017 Author Posted July 18, 2017 (edited) Day 7 These tend to be easier done in a block D: BrightnessRadiant was killed. They were a Friend of the ABC, and a Rioter. PMs are closed. Always remember to check the thread first. Cycle ends in ~46 hours. Player List Spoiler Jay (The Flash) - has at least two steelminds - a ring, and a helmet Name Name (Straw) - has a name ABC Roleless Albin Brodeur (Jondesu) - Skaa Crew Member ABC Rioter Siv (Cloudjumper) - has unrealistic expectations Luigi (Shqueeves) - roots for the underdog Edmond Dantès (asterion137) - is seeking revenge for a wrongful imprisonment ABC Scavenger Carcer (Paranoid King) - is all for rebelion Dariend Castel (StrikerEZ) - walks a dark path ABC Tineye Roger Elariel (Elenion) - is not the Pauper Noble ABC Smoker Alonine (BrightnessRadiant) - is probably not the real Eponine ABC Rioter Alrin (Arinian) Aimes (Araris Valerian) - in above his head, wants to fade away Bartolomeus Teki (randuir) - is slightly suspici... ABC Thug Darius Castel (Ecthelion III) - is self-centered, with a brother Keera Wilde (little Wilson) - fights for the right to be free! Siena Mattel (Seonid) - is running away from love Lukas Fehrweight (Drake Marshall) Altea Meza (Crimsn-Wolf) - here because she was told to Jack (A Joe in the Bush) Escaped Convict Dandi (_Stick_) Kliff (TheMightyLopen) - roped into manning the barricade, possibly by a cousin? ABC Roleless Garshin (Yitzi2) - thinks he's in Elendel when he really isn't... Infiltrator Roleless Rorik (Dalinar Kholin) Mykal (Amanuensis) - is a missionary of the path ABC Scavenger Phil (STINK) - is simply Phil Julie (Arraenae) - is an idealistic student fresh out of college ABC Ringleader Locke Tekiel (OrlokTsubodai) Suterna (Elbereth) Player List (Sorted) Spoiler Jay (The Flash) - has at least two steelminds - a ring, and a helmet Siv (Cloudjumper) - has unrealistic expectations Luigi (Shqueeves) - roots for the underdog Carcer (Paranoid King) - is all for rebelion Alrin (Arinian) Aimes (Araris Valerian) - in above his head, wants to fade away Darius Castel (Ecthelion III) - is self-centered, with a brother Keera Wilde (little Wilson) - fights for the right to be free! Siena Mattel (Seonid) - is running away from love Lukas Fehrweight (Drake Marshall) Altea Meza (Crimsn-Wolf) - here because she was told to Dandi (_Stick_) Rorik (Dalinar Kholin) Phil (STINK) - is simply Phil Locke Tekiel (OrlokTsubodai) Suterna (Elbereth) Albin Brodeur (Jondesu) - Skaa Crew Member ABC Rioter Garshin (Yitzi2) - thinks he's in Elendel when he really isn't... Infiltrator Roleless Kliff (TheMightyLopen) - roped into manning the barricade, possibly by a cousin? ABC Roleless Name Name (Straw) - has a name ABC Roleless Mykal (Amanuensis) - is a missionary of the path ABC Scavenger Bartolomeus Teki (randuir) - is slightly suspici... ABC Thug Roger Elariel (Elenion) - is not the Pauper Noble ABC Smoker Julie (Arraenae) - is an idealistic student fresh out of college ABC Ringleader Dariend Castel (StrikerEZ) - walks a dark path ABC Tineye Edmond Dantès (asterion137) - is seeking revenge for a wrongful imprisonment ABC Scavenger Jack (A Joe in the Bush) Escaped Convict Alonine (BrightnessRadiant) - is probably not the real Eponine ABC Rioter Edited July 20, 2017 by Haelbarde 4
Stick. she/her Posted July 18, 2017 Posted July 18, 2017 RIP BR :[ @The Flash, last turn: Quote Ecthelion. I have already enumbered my suspicions on him. Furthermore it will give us more information. Cloudjumper. For the moment I am still suspicious, but I think there is a possibility of him being cleared if Ecth turns evil. IIRC, Ecth defended Cloud at a point. What makes you think Cloud would be town if Ecth is evil? Anyway, According to the PM I had with BR last turn, her elims reads were: PK, Dalinar, Ecth, Araris and Cloud. She also mentioned she'd go for an Ecth lynch today, but I'm a little skeptical about Ecth being an elim, as I've said last cycle. Looking at Ecth's and Cloud's posts soon.
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