Long Game 77: A Political Trap

[Mat he/him]

@Archer can’t quote cause mobile

First, you misunderstand. I didn’t reveal you had no items; I tried to steal boxings from you N1 and when I was informed I couldn’t opted to not do anything because I didn’t think anyone had items and wanted to avoid getting scanned trying.

Second, I find it annoying I was honest about my unknowingly controversial take and am being voted on for it. You guys shouldn’t be able to decide how I use my role imo and if I don’t see a problem with how I get boxings, I’m the thief :P. Sorry if I sound irritated, but I don’t understand why I have votes because we have a difference of opinion.

Edit: Also, I have no idea what you’re going on about having no boxings. Come D2 you had lots of RP and analysis posts, definitely more than Araris so I really don’t know what you’re talking about there, so actually me picking you for most boxings (not Drake because I was saving him for later) makes total sense.

And maybe this is pointless to say but let’s be honest here I’ve always had a history of being paranoid about you.

And why the heck would I admit all this if I were elim? Wouldn’t it have been easier to just claim thief and leave it at that?

Biplet @StrikerEZ

Edited June 5, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Archer he/him]

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@Archer can’t quote cause mobile

First, you misunderstand. I didn’t reveal you had no items; I tried to steal boxings from you N1 and when I was informed I couldn’t opted to not do anything because I  didn’t think anyone had items and wanted to avoid getting scanned trying.

Second, I find it annoying I was honest about my unknowingly controversial take and am being voted on for it. You guys shouldn’t be able to decide how I use my role imo and if I don’t see a problem with how I get boxings, I’m the thief :P. Sorry if I sound irritated, but I don’t understand why I have votes because we have a difference of opinion.

Oh, in that case I totally have a Bulletproof Vest and would be a poor NK choice

I'm struggling with the disconnect between you saying you think I'm villagey and you taking actions that hurt my ability to get items. If you had said you were more neutral/evil on me, that I could understand. But I thought I'd be left alone by a village thief because potentially stealing from an elim helps the team more than choosing to probably hinder a villager does

Edit to your edit: my activity has really dropped off recently so I feel like I'm not getting boxings. Maybe I'm doing/did okay, comparatively. Idk. @Matrim's Dice

Edited June 5, 2021 by Archer

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Archer said:

Oh, in that case I totally have a Bulletproof Vest and would be a poor NK choice

I'm struggling with the disconnect between you saying you think I'm villagey and you taking actions that hurt my ability to get items. If you had said you were more neutral/evil on me, that I could understand. But I thought I'd be left alone by a village thief because potentially stealing from an elim helps the team more than choosing to probably hinder a villager does

 100%

And there’s not much I can do about it :/ I’m sorry it came to this, my being outed was never in the plan. Yes, I stole from whoever I thought that the most boxings largely disregarding my reads except for D1 (so technically I only did it half the time :P). The safest hands for the boxings as far as I know are mine, call me paranoid but that’s what the main thought was.

I also edited the first post in case you didn’t see it. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Okay, so at first glance the elim kills make me think that the elims are decently active. But I'm not too sure where to go from there. I'm not sure that elim!Drake would go so hard after Mat for a roleclaim, which conflicts with my read of him from C1 and C2. I can see Mat being an elim, and might end up voting for him. I agree with Illwei's point, and also think his reaction to Illwei felt a little off. Illwei herself seems likely to be village, since I doubt that the elims would use a spike N1. Szeth and Books are both people I'm slightly reading village on as well. Of the people that have posted today, the only others are Devotary and Archer. I don't really have anything on Devotary, although I also don't think there's much to have. I honestly don't have a read on Archer as well.. I'd probably lean slightly village for him, based on my experience as his teammate once, but that's pretty weak.

That leaves the quiet folks; @Biplet, @Dannex, and @The Unknown Order. I hold to my suspicion of Biplet, especially in light of my suspicion on Mat. Dannex and TUO are both pretty meh. I figure between myself and the elim team's apparent strategy, they won't be long for this game. I think I'll vote Biplet. Given how quiet things have been this cycle, killing Mat off seems slightly less than optimal for now, but I'd be down to vote him off if people would prefer him over Bip.

I'd like to mention (if it hasn't been said yet) that the Thief role can be used as a pseudo kill scan, since players with items or lots of cash are likely to have been collecting from NKs. Something to keep in mind.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

3 hours ago, Archer said:

No, I'm not a thief and yes that's why I asked about it.

Interesting. Thank you for contributing to my game of role analysis bingo.

3 hours ago, Archer said:

I see no reason why v!Mat would steal from me, given their village read of me. It's actively hurting who he still says he thinks is a teammate.

So, idk really which way this points, but I do maybe have some perspective to offer here, as the original Thief from LG66.

And the first thing is that when I was a Thief, I wanted boxings  If it came down to using my role on a probable villager or not using it at all, I would have stolen from a probable villager, in a heartbeat. Because even just consolidating moneys into one place was good for the village, and if that one place happened to be "Drake", well that is purely besides the point  I seriously intended to buy the lerasium alloy before the eliminators could, and I was the only person whose alignment I could be certain of, so of course my hands were the best place for everyone else's stuff 

But the second thing is, I personally also did go out of my way to steal from the more active players who I also suspected.

• Because, yeah, I would rather set back the eliminators than villagers. If my own benefit coincides with the harming of eliminators that is obviously ideal.
• More than that, though, targeting people you think are villagers is actually contrary to maximizing profits as a Thief. People who have killed are going to have more money in their pocket, so stealing from them is gonna make you richer.
• More than that, you can use theft as a crude but effective form of scanning. You should have an idea of how, given some of the contents of our PM conversation from D1. All you have to do is steal from somebody who has more boxings than they should otherwise have, and viola, you caught either another thief or a murderer.

...hm. Walking myself through that, I might have just convinced myself that Matrim is unlikely to be a village Thief.

I wouldn't necessarily blame a village!Matrim for not seeing things the same way, as some of my thought processes were... Unconventional. But I do think it lowers the probability of a village!Matrim. I could definitely see village!Thief stealing from rich person they have little read on one way or another, but stealing from people you consistently put on your trust list just... Isn't a great look.

And, yeah, Matrim stole from Szeth, who they were genuinely vocally suspicious of on D1 (I actually did go back and check, to make sure it really originated on D1 and not later). And this almost made me hold back from voting. But, thing is, Szeth was also the person who earned the second largest number of boxings in D1. The explanation "Matrim is trying to maximize boxings while also targeting people they suspect" only works for 1 out of 2 thefts, while the explanation "Matrim is trying to maximize boxings, period" works for 2 out of 2 thefts.

Like, if Matrim had wanted to steal from somebody who had a comparable amount of boxings as Archer, and who was also on Matrim's sus list, that would have been doable. There were options that fit the bill. Biplet, for one, which is.. Hm. Well then I think I will know where to look next if Matrim does flip elim.

Matrim I'm sorry for outing you as a Thief and now posting what is effectively my second "why Matrim is Evil" rant of the turn  But, um, I do think you're Evil.

Edited June 5, 2021 by DrakeMarshall
duplicate sentence removed

[danex he/him]

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

That leaves the quiet folks; @Dannex

Am I quiet? *realizes I’ve barely posted in the last few turns* I guess I am. I’ve been reading the thread, I just haven’t had much to say. Irl stuff got busy so I haven’t had time to actually analyze stuff, but I’ve been semi-following things. I have a massive headache rn, so I’ll consider a vote n stuff tomorrow. Right now even looking at my phone screen is making my eyes want to pound out of my skull. GN

[Biplet she/her]

8 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

That leaves the quiet folks; @Biplet,

Yeah, sorry, I know I’ve been uncharacteristically quiet this turn, and I’m sorry for that. I plan on being more engaged today. I’m in an insane 4 week intensive summer class, and the past few days have been very heavy due to exams, homework, and projects. But I think today I can participate more

[Mat he/him]

*Sigh*

11 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

 I seriously intended to buy the lerasium alloy before the eliminators could

^^^^^

11 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

• Because, yeah, I would rather set back the eliminators than villagers. If my own benefit coincides with the harming of eliminators that is obviously ideal

And you think I don't?

11 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I wouldn't necessarily blame a village!Matrim for not seeing things the same way,

Hmm I think you just did :P.

11 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

but stealing from people you consistently put on your trust list just... Isn't a great look.

I did it once. One person with the most boxings, for more boxings, to try to get the most boxings- it's not like I went out of my way to steal from people on my trust list -_-. Look at D2- the active people there besides me are literally just you and Archer. I trusted you more. So I stole from Archer. There were other people who posted RP and stuff that turn but none were actually comparable to you two.

11 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

But, thing is, Szeth was also the person who earned the second largest number of boxings in D1.

I... fail to see how this is a valid point against me. I looked at my suspicions list. Szeth had earned the most boxings off that list, and it was enough boxings that I would actually want to do it, like I didn't want to steal three boxings or something with the risk of outing my role to the elims, which is how many boxings most of the people on my sus list had.

11 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Like, if Matrim had wanted to steal from somebody who had a comparable amount of boxings as Archer, and who was also on Matrim's sus list, that would have been doable. There were options that fit the bill. Biplet, for one, which is.. Hm. Well then I think I will know where to look next if Matrim does flip elim.

Biplet did not have a comparable amount of boxings to Archer D2, not that I noticed, or I would have stolen from her. Guess who I'm targeting today? Guess who I'm voting on today?

The former will change if the latter doesn't, to who I have no idea.

And I don't suppose you're clearing the other thief, Drake, Archer, Illwei? The thief who stole from me and Drake, the two most active players in the game? Their agenda is virtually exactly the same as mine, Araris is like the only person who sussed you, ever, and he's obviously not the other thief. So what's the difference? Just that you don't know who they are, therefore the first honest claim must be evil? I don't think the other thief is elim, not immediately, because that would be unfair and hypocritical. But if you're voting me for my honesty here I need to know the difference between my actions and the other thief's, because I don't see one. Unless we're both evil, huh?

Edit: @DrakeMarshall @Illwei @Archer

Edited June 5, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Biplet she/her]

So, it does feel a bit strange that we're jumping down Mat's throat for claiming in thread. I can't imagine an elim would admit in thread that they're just targeting for the most amount of boxings?? I just can't get behind voting on role alone, but if that's the route everyone else wants to go I at least think we should know who the other thief is?? It's just so strange to me that we're clearing the other thief who probably has the same goals as Mat. Am I suspicious of Mat? I mean, yeah, but not because of the thief thing?? I can't justify voting on him just for that.

Suspicious of Araris slightly, but since his Lotus kill claim hasn't been countered, I'm inclined to believe that he's the coinshot. This is sad because he's probably going to kill me next, based on that recent vote XD. Can I persuade you not to Araris?

No idea what to think of Dannex.

Anyway, I'm gonna drop a vote on TUO because we still haven't seen any voting or reads and I know that's his playstyle but it's rubbing me the wrong way. This'll probably change if TUO joins us in thread or someone else catches my eye.

[Mat he/him]

stop trying to tie yourself to me lol

[Archer he/him]

7 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And I don't suppose you're clearing the other thief, Drake, Archer, Illwei? The thief who stole from me and Drake, the two most active players in the game? Their agenda is virtually exactly the same as mine, Araris is like the only person who sussed you, ever, and he's obviously not the other thief. So what's the difference? Just that you don't know who they are, therefore the first honest claim must be evil? I don't think the other thief is elim, not immediately, because that would be unfair and hypocritical. But if you're voting me for my honesty here I need to know the difference between my actions and the other thief's, because I don't see one. Unless we're both evil, huh?

I'm still miffed the only reason you wanted to track boxings with me was so you could rob us all. :/ 

But that's a valid point. Besides Ary, I don't know if anyone really susses Drake right now. Mat

I'm thinking Devo is the kandra. Same reasons I thought Mist was, they've generally been playing lowkey. Plus their contribution this cycle was to say please don't attack the kandra. Before that they made a post speculating about who the kandra could be. Has anyone tried bribing them yet? Hey kandra, village thief Mat will give you a lerasium spike if you support our side.

I am not dialed into this game as much as I should be and it's showing. Gah. TUO's probably a dead end, based on past experience. 

Biplet

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

I'm still miffed the only reason you wanted to track boxings with me was so you could rob us all. :/ 

Actually, I genuinely wanted to do that and the thievery didn’t cross my mind in that aspect  Good idea though

Edited June 5, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Biplet she/her]

Shara could feel the eyes on her at today’s meetings.

The hair on the back of her neck pricked up while they watched her. She knew suspicion was hot on her. She did her best to keep calm, but it was hard when everyone just kept staring.

Iden didn’t look too good himself. He fidgeted whenever someone suggested that Shara was a rebel, furiously denying it but sweating bullets all the same. They were tied together, and if Shara was executed, he would probably go with her. 

Shara hadn’t prepared herself to die. It was the one unknown, the great mystery. Despite her comprehensive notes and piles of analysis sitting on her desk, she hadn’t planned to die.

Hush. You will not die.

The reminder, though frequent, was softer each time she thought it. They’d tied her to Philico now, the thief. He’d been on her radar, though not enough for her to do much analysis on him, and that implicated her. He was adamant about her execution over his. He argued it even now, swaying others to join him on voting for her execution.

Should she run? She’d never make it to Elendel.

No, she wouldn’t run. She would stay.

You will not die.

[---]

11 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

stop trying to tie yourself to me lol

this feels so e/e with bip I can't help it

I'm fine with where my vote is.

EDIT:

Mat, for someone who just "Wants as many boxings" you aren't RPing much, you aren't posting long posts. It's almost like you don't want to RP too much because that's what Lotus did, and you don't want to post too many long posts because you don't want too much you have to say to incriminate you

Edited June 6, 2021 by Illwei

[Mat he/him]

13 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Mat, for someone who just "Wants as many boxings" you aren't RPing much, you aren't posting long posts. It's almost like you don't want to RP too much because that's what Lotus did, and you don't want to post too many long posts because you don't want too much you have to say to incriminate you

I’m not super into RPing :P. Never have been. If you didn’t notice (why would you, you’re a sub :P) I started out RPing a lot and it fizzled out, which is typically what happens with me. I try for the first few cycles and then just... end up not.

As for the second thing, that has never been something I’ve tried to do, that is not say a lot to have nothing to incriminate me. Never done that, never will, I talk and am active regardless of anything sort of irl stuff. There’s not much to say when no one else says anything either, huh? I’m not gonna go make up 200 word posts outta nothing.

Like, rationally I know you’re 99% village but it sure seems like you’re trying to pull reasons out of thin air. Neither of those points apply to my playstyle and I’m kinda surprised you didn’t know that?

[Archer he/him]

So anyway who wants to hear my theory that Devo is in fact a Gasper? I don't think they've had a 200 word post in a while. Except that messes with my theory that they're a kandra. 

How we all feeling about kandra claims? We're closish to exlo, so if it came down to wasting an exe on a kandra vs possibly hitting an elim, I think we have to go for the evil lads. Thoughts? Kandra, any thoughts on that Bribe offer from before? I can throw in a Bulletproof Vest I totally have, unless dying is part of your win con. You do you 

[---]

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’m not super into RPing :P. Never have been. If you didn’t notice (why would you, you’re a sub :P) I started out RPing a lot and it fizzled out, which is typically what happens with me. I try for the first few cycles and then just... end up not.

As for the second thing, that has never been something I’ve tried to do, that is not say a lot to have nothing to incriminate me. Never done that, never will, I talk and am active regardless of anything sort of irl stuff. There’s not much to say when no one else says anything either, huh? I’m not gonna go make up 200 word posts outta nothing.

Like, rationally I know you’re 99% village but it sure seems like you’re trying to pull reasons out of thin air. Neither of those points apply to my playstyle and I’m kinda surprised you didn’t know that?

I'm not talking about Meta here though, I'm talking about how your goal is to get boxings, and personally I don't think it's that hard to find random filler to talk about to reach 200 words. Filler can be game related, it can be stuff you've already talked about and are just re-explaining if you need to,. It can be a whole bunch of nonsense responses or whatnot.

Why am I 99%village to you? what did I do to convince you of that?

[StrikerEZ he/him]

@Ashbringer @Biplet @Szeth_Pancakes @Matrim's Dice @Araris Valerian @The Unknown Order @DrakeMarshall @Archer @Illwei @Devotary of Spontaneity @Dannex @Flyingbooks With about 10 hours and 15 minutes left in the turn, here's your reminder to get your votes and actions in before the turn ends!

Also, here's a VC: 

Biplet (3): Araris Valerian, Archer, Matrim's Dice
Araris Valerian (2): Flyingbooks, Szeth_Pancakes
Matrim's Dice (2): DrakeMarshall, Illwei

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

3 minutes ago, Archer said:

So anyway who wants to hear my theory that Devo is in fact a Gasper? I don't think they've had a 200 word post in a while. Except that messes with my theory that they're a kandra. 

I am not a Gasper, but I am a thief. Since @Ashbringer doesn't seem inclined to mention this or say anything at all, I will mention that I stole boxings from him N2. Drake claims that someone stole from him D2, and Matrim claims to have stolen from Archer D2 and Archer has not denied this claim. Since thieves can only steal once per cycle under normal circumstances, there are either three thieves, Matrim is a duralumin gnat/steelrunner/soulbearer/was nicrobursted, or someone is lying. Drake's claim has no corroboration, but since it turns out there are more ways to gain extra actions than I thought it's theoretically possible Matrim could have stolen from Drake and Archer at the same time.

[---]

why are we all claiming why do yall feel safe claiming no one is forcing yall what' going on

[Mat he/him]

20 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I'm not talking about Meta here though, I'm talking about how your goal is to get boxings, and personally I don't think it's that hard to find random filler to talk about to reach 200 words. Filler can be game related, it can be stuff you've already talked about and are just re-explaining if you need to,. It can be a whole bunch of nonsense responses or whatnot.

Why am I 99%village to you? what did I do to convince you of that?

I’m not gonna break my meta :P. Too hard :P.

Killing Az, claiming Hema

5 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I am not a Gasper, but I am a thief. Since @Ashbringer doesn't seem inclined to mention this or say anything at all, I will mention that I stole boxings from him N2. Drake claims that someone stole from him D2, and Matrim claims to have stolen from Archer D2 and Archer has not denied this claim. Since thieves can only steal once per cycle under normal circumstances, there are either three thieves, Matrim is a duralumin gnat/steelrunner/soulbearer/was nicrobursted, or someone is lying. Drake's claim has no corroboration, but since it turns out there are more ways to gain extra actions than I thought it's theoretically possible Matrim could have stolen from Drake and Archer at the same time.

i didn’t :P. So either there really are three thieves or someone is lying

my money for that someone would be you tbh but I have t thought through if that makes any sense 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

12 minutes ago, Illwei said:

why are we all claiming why do yall feel safe claiming no one is forcing yall what' going on

I'm claiming because people tend to complain when their boxings were stolen, but the only people who mentioned the fact that they were stolen from C1 were Szeth and Matrim, which suggests only two thieves. The fact that we have three theft complaints from C2 means something noteworthy is going on, and possibly that someone isn't telling the truth.

[danex he/him]

Any and all thiefs are more than welcome to steal my boxings. 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

16 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

*Sigh*

^^^^^

And you think I don't?

Hmm I think you just did :P.

I did it once. One person with the most boxings, for more boxings, to try to get the most boxings- it's not like I went out of my way to steal from people on my trust list -_-. Look at D2- the active people there besides me are literally just you and Archer. I trusted you more. So I stole from Archer. There were other people who posted RP and stuff that turn but none were actually comparable to you two.

I... fail to see how this is a valid point against me. I looked at my suspicions list. Szeth had earned the most boxings off that list, and it was enough boxings that I would actually want to do it, like I didn't want to steal three boxings or something with the risk of outing my role to the elims, which is how many boxings most of the people on my sus list had.

Biplet did not have a comparable amount of boxings to Archer D2, not that I noticed, or I would have stolen from her. Guess who I'm targeting today? Guess who I'm voting on today?

The former will change if the latter doesn't, to who I have no idea.

And I don't suppose you're clearing the other thief, Drake, Archer, Illwei? The thief who stole from me and Drake, the two most active players in the game? Their agenda is virtually exactly the same as mine, Araris is like the only person who sussed you, ever, and he's obviously not the other thief. So what's the difference? Just that you don't know who they are, therefore the first honest claim must be evil? I don't think the other thief is elim, not immediately, because that would be unfair and hypocritical. But if you're voting me for my honesty here I need to know the difference between my actions and the other thief's, because I don't see one. Unless we're both evil, huh?

Edit: @DrakeMarshall @Illwei @Archer

Hmmm...

I am village reading one or two parts of this, but I have some questions.

To be clear, are you saying suspicion did play an important part in deciding who you would target, or no?

Like, I was under the impression from your posts earlier in the turn that you didn't steal from me basically because you were just waiting to fatten me up, not bc you village read me more than you did Archer.

Also, I am a bit curious whether or not using theft for scanning is a thing you were thinking about / if you agree with it at all.

14 hours ago, Biplet said:

So, it does feel a bit strange that we're jumping down Mat's throat for claiming in thread. I can't imagine an elim would admit in thread that they're just targeting for the most amount of boxings?? I just can't get behind voting on role alone, but if that's the route everyone else wants to go I at least think we should know who the other thief is?? It's just so strange to me that we're clearing the other thief who probably has the same goals as Mat. Am I suspicious of Mat? I mean, yeah, but not because of the thief thing?? I can't justify voting on him just for that.

Voting based on role alone is a terrible idea, but like Archer(?) said, voting based on how one uses a role is significantly more justified. I feel a little guilty for asking Matrim to claim and then voting on them based on the contents of that claim, but I would not disqualify the reasoning just because of that.

2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I am not a Gasper, but I am a thief.

Cool, that was my top guess for what your second role is, especially after I ruled out Archer being a Thief, but it's nice to have confirmation.

I'm not sure why you chose to claim right now, but I'm assuming it had something to do with the shade being thrown at the 'other Thief', and you preferring to come out in the open on your own terms, instead of getting caught at some point and probably getting exed.

So yeah it's time I said that the whole thing about me getting stolen from was complete BS  The goal was to give thieves a reason to hesitate from stealing from me. As far as I'm concerned there is nothing dishonorable about bluffing off a prospective thief 

But with both thieves out in the open there is no reason for me to keep pretending. It would only cause more confusion than necessary. And plus, if one of you does pilfer my boxings now, I'll know exactly who to pursue for vengeance 

Edit:

Vote Tally
Biplet (3): Araris Valerian, Archer, Matrim's Dice
Araris Valerian (2): Flyingbooks, Szeth_Pancakes
Matrim's Dice (2): DrakeMarshall, Illwei

Edited June 6, 2021 by DrakeMarshall
complementary vote count

[---]

it might be worth looking into the Araris voters depending. tbh i see that more e/e than anything else