Long Game 77: A Political Trap

[StrikerEZ]

19 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

@StrikerEZ, do roleblocks (other than the Steel Trap) block all actions taken by the target player that turn?

Steel traps are the only roleblock that just target one action. 

[Araris Valerian]

8 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Why is TUO a “good option” other than his activity level?

There isn't another reason. But I would say inactivity is simultaneously suspicious and detrimental to the game. I think what made his inactivity more suspicious was both that he had said his playstyle was to do analysis/vote later in the game (or he at least implied that), yet a couple of cycles before LyLo, he'd done nothing of the sort. He also was RPing for boxings, which is suspicious if it's the only thing you are doing.

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

Steel traps are the only roleblock that just target one action. 

Guess the Nicroburst thing is a bust. But I do have multiple actions in just in case a Steel Trap heads my way.

Edited June 9, 2021 by Araris Valerian

[Szeth_Pancakes]

24 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Guess the Nicroburst thing is a bust. But I do have multiple actions in just in case a Steel Trap heads my way.

It’s too late to nicroburst you for it to take effect tonight. I can do it the next night, though.

[Araris Valerian]

37 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

It’s too late to nicroburst you for it to take effect tonight. I can do it the next night, though.

According to Striker, getting roleblocked by anything other than a Steel Trap negates all actions. So there's not really any point.

[Archer]

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

There isn't another reason. But I would say inactivity is simultaneously suspicious and detrimental to the game. I think what made his inactivity more suspicious was both that he had said his playstyle was to do analysis/vote later in the game (or he at least implied that), yet a couple of cycles before LyLo, he'd done nothing of the sort. He also was RPing for boxings, which is suspicious if it's the only thing you are doing.

I agree his playstyle is suspicion inducing. In the aftermath, some pointers may be sent his way. But TUO gets exed a lot for doing basically what he did here. I don't like it, but it does present an easy opportunity for the elims to waste an exe by doing a CC. Like you did against Randy last LG, Araris. By crusading, you're concluding that we have no better suspects than inactivity induced null reads; after eight rounds, the best shot we have is a shot in the dark based on only recent evidence. TUO didn't help things by ignoring the pressure on them, which was reminiscent of e!Lotus, but this shouldn't have gone through. I believe the elims supported it. It's telling that Ashbringer, Biplet, and Mat were on that train. That could well be the full elim team right there. 

Although, Szeth's attacks on v!Araris have been pretty suspicious this round. Seems like an elim grasping for a direction for the exe that isn't their teammate. 

I invite anyone who has a roleblock item to consider using it tonight. The elims need to roleblock and submit a kill tonight. They'll probably have one person do both, but even so, with village reads, there's what, a one in five chance of stopping them? And if we don't, it'll be exlo and too late, so you might as well try. 

[DrakeMarshall]

Alright, so new plan. Sort of.

Simply put, my advice is that all @villagers who have the funds consider buying something, tonight. Because one way or another, I expect things to be decided soon. Either the eliminator team will win tomorrow night or we will have killed one or more of them by then and will have a strong lead on whoever remains. The boxings you are saving up will be of little use if the game is ended. The eliminators will probably use their boxings intelligently, and so we should too.

Many of you should at least be able to afford a steel trap by now, and that is enough to make a difference. Enough steel traps and we have the potential to halt the eliminator kill, and perhaps more importantly shut down the roleblock on Araris long enough that he can get a kill in. Or more than one kill, if we go through with the Nicrobursting plan, which I think we still should try. In my not very humble opinion, this has significantly better odds at turning things around than the vote will. It's a gamble, but then, what isn't?

Bribes and blackmail are also an excellent use of money tonight. The former will potentially stave off exlo and the latter is almost like a better version of a roleblock that has the potential for a rather drastic turning of the tables if used correctly. I know all of these consumable items aren't the most flashy, but they make a difference when they are used in numbers, and numbers is the one advantage we still have.

I am sort of assuming that Araris survives the night, which is not a given, but also, I do not believe it is in the eliminators' best interest to kill Araris, if they have thought things through.

[Archer]

I expect the elims will have to both roleblock Araris, to stop his kill, and kill him, to stop his kills going forward. So the rest of us can basically act with impunity. In light of that, I'm going to mention now that I've got a plan that might end up catching an elim? Drake knows my role, so he should have an idea of what I'm up to. If it flops, we'll have that conversation after. It depends what Team Evil does

But yeah, dibs on one of the cheap items. I'll use my other action for shopping. 

[DrakeMarshall]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

I expect the elims will have to both roleblock Araris, to stop his kill, and kill him, to stop his kills going forward. So the rest of us can basically act with impunity. In light of that, I'm going to mention now that I've got a plan that might end up catching an elim? Drake knows my role, so he should have an idea of what I'm up to. If it flops, we'll have that conversation after. It depends what Team Evil does

But yeah, dibs on one of the cheap items. I'll use my other action for shopping. 

I know half of your role, but I am pretty sure the half I know is not the half that is relevant to your plan.

Good luck, anyhow.

Btw I don't think I've said it yet but in shuffling around my reads a bit after the last day you have advanced to a village read in my books.

My one reservation about urging everyone to buy cheap items is that it's fairly probable that some of our actions will interfere with each other, but even then I reckon we're better off with more folks trying to do stuff to save the village.

Edited June 10, 2021 by DrakeMarshall

[StrikerEZ]

@Ashbringer @Biplet @Szeth_Pancakes @Matrim's Dice @Araris Valerian @DrakeMarshall @Archer @Devotary of Spontaneity @Dannex @Flyingbooks Here’s your about 8.5 hour reminder to get your actions in before the end of the turn!

[Araris Valerian]

Okay, so, things I noticed about Matrim:

He put Dannex as a slight village read in his first list. That seems odd. Not a whole lot else to gather from the list. We've only killed 2 of the people on it, one from the village reads and one from the evil reads.

Later is critical of... all the votes that have been placed. Except his own of course. But to be fair, most of those votes were pokes, so I think we can mostly agree.

(warning, not a post Mat made!) Bip votes for Experience, putting him at 3 to the two on Matrim. Interestingly, Bip seems willing to give TUO a lot of slack here, which contrasts a decent bit with last cycle.

(warning, another not Mat post!) Then Drake comes and village reads Mat. I wasn't a fan of this earlier, but it's consistent with something Drake posted earlier, so it's not really out of the blue like I thought back then. I don't actually think there's a whole lot to say here.

Mat is upset at all of the votes on himself, and votes Exp, but doesn't give a reason. Exp wasn't even on his suspicions list.

It's worth noting that Archer, Ash, and Bip are all still alive, and all either ended on Exp or pushed for him at some point. Actually, just about everyone that voted D1 is still alive... I'm not sure what to make of that.

Mat's reads list for reference: Mat, TJ, Drake, Archer, Dannex, manukos, Araris, Lotus, Mist, Ash, TUO, Azmine, Jondesu, Devo, Books, Biplet, Ventyl, Szeth

And Mat follows up his reads list with a vote on Szeth. Makes sense.

And Mat and I try to engage with each other the next cycle but I totally fail to take his reads into account, so that doesn't go very far. Mat eventually ends on the Bip train. I think Mat/Bip could still be e/e, since Bip had an extra life, but it seems like a fair bit of a risk in exchange for distancing. Especially with lots of NKs running around.

I'm honestly not sure what to make of Drake confronting Mat. 

And I'm going to head to bed. I only made it though half the game, but I'm still not really sure about Mat. I guess my elim read last cycle was due to the fact that he hasn't really done anything that stands out. He hasn't pushed super hard to kill anyone, and his thieving activity is suspect. His interactions with Bip also aren't as straightforward as I remembered. I would probably vote out Biplet first, and then see how the cycle played out before making a final call on Mat.

[Biplet]

8 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Interestingly, Bip seems willing to give TUO a lot of slack here, which contrasts a decent bit with last cycle.

Okay I’m about to go to bed but I wanna point out that last turn I said I was fine with inactivity in early game but a lot less fine in late game. 

[StrikerEZ]

And that's the turn! No more posting or submitting actions until the next one is posted!

[StrikerEZ]

Yoden didn't think of himself as a particularly clever man. Sure, there was a reason he'd ended up in his position of power, though some might say he would've gotten nowhere near an office if he hadn't been from a noble family. But sometimes he felt like everyone was one step ahead of him.

Until now.

He'd been looking for the Sweeper. The meeting had just recently ended for the day, and someone had managed to make a mess everywhere, and Yoden was the unlucky fellow told to go find the Sweeper. He'd started calling himself the Moper and was moping around and slacking on his duties, and Yoden found himself wondering how in Harmony's name the man hadn't been fired yet.

Yoden finally found the Sweeper's closet in the building, and opened it without knocking. He was about to ask for the Sweeper to come help when he noticed the pile of bones on the floor. There was a...thing squeezing through a crack in one of the walls, and Yoden just barely got a glimpse of it before it disappeared.

Yoden stood there for a moment, all thoughts of the mess in the meeting hall fleeing his mind. All he could think about was the bones on the ground before him, in the Sweepers closet no less, and that strange thing that he had seen.

Oh Harmony, Yoden thought, Sweeper was a Faceless Immortal, and he's just abandoned his body for a new one.

~

Magrait found themselves sneaking through the halls of the capitol building. While they were probably the closest match to Adomert and Inedze out there, they still had their own...personality quirks. They couldn't stop themselves from stealing things sometimes.

Her current mark was walking ahead of them, and Magrait was sure that the mark didn't know they were following. Which was only reasonable. Magrait had a nearly perfect track record as a thief. 

Suddenly, her mark made a turn around a corner, and Magrait turned the corner to follow them. They stopped when their mark wasn't there, their hand going to the knife at their side. A hand wrapped around her neck, pulling her to the cold ground. Before Magrait could let out a noise, another hand covered their mouth.

Magrait frantically tapped her copperminds, looking to see if there was any information that could help them from those. There wasn't much, though they did realize they didn't want to die like Adomert or Inedze had. So they fought, biting at the hand covering their mouth and trying to pull the arm away from their throat. It wasn't much use, though their attacker finally pulled their hand away from Magrait's mouth. Magrait was about to yell for help when a cold sharp pain hit them in the back.

For a moment, Magrait was confused as the pain hit them and her attacker stood up. Magrait tried to move, but then they realized their body was failing. Their limbs were going numb, their vision growing cloudy, and finally Magrait realized that the pain in their back was from a knife. Magrait coughed up some blood, and began to tap their copperminds as their life began to fade. Better to relive the good memories from Adomert and Inedze's lives during her final moments.

~

Veren stopped tapping their tinminds. Veren had suspected Magrait for awhile, had found some of their missing appearances suspicious. And while Veren was currently trying to work both sides of this foolish gathering against each other, they weren't okay with murder or the destruction of miles' worth of railroads. 

And so, they followed Magrait through the building, tapping tin to increase their senses so they couldn't lose them in these dark hallways. It's hard to lose track of someone when you can hear them from miles away. 

And they were constantly burning electrum. The experience was disconcerting sometimes, but Veren had grown so used to it that they often forgot that everyone else didn't watch their future selves do things seconds ahead, and then make new decisions off of that. So Veren saw their own shock a few seconds before anything happened, and they began to slow down, hand going to their side in case they needed a knife.

Magrait had just turned down a corner a little bit ago, though they hadn't come out yet. Veren quickly considered what her shock must mean. It could be that they walked around the corner and saw a dead body, someone Magrait had killed. Maybe Magrait was attacking someone, maybe-

Veren was surprised to see Magrait dead on the ground, pooling in their own blood. And they saw themselves taking a knife to the back as well. They quickly tapped tin, heightening their senses even more, turning around to grab the knife before it hit them. Their new electrum shadows kept dying, and Veren began to react to each death quickly, struggling to keep their attacker's knife away from them. It was surprisingly difficult. Veren was surprised by who it was, but maybe they shouldn't have been.

Suddenly, Veren's electrum stores ran out. They panicked, realizing what had happened. They'd been burning electrum too much, almost flaring it to keep themselves alive in the fight. They hadn't prepared to need this much tonight. And so, their attacker quickly took advantage of Veren's moment of surprise, putting a knife in their stomach, and knocked them to the ground. Veren struggled, trying to crawl away, but they didn't get far before their attacker finished them off and fled into the scene.

~

"You're telling me," Goren said to Yoden, who'd been in Goren's office far later than he'd wanted to be, "that the Sweeper was some sort of mythological creature from the stories come to life?"

"Yes." Yoden said. "For the fifteenth time, I know what I saw. The bones were in the closet, and something squeezed through a crack in the wall." The guards in the office with them seemed unnerved by this story, even despite how often Yoden had said it by now

"Well," Goren said thoughtfully. "We're locking down the city. We already have everyone here in the building, and no one is leaving this building unless they were in this room tonight. If there really is a murderous Faceless Immortal out there, it can't be any of us, yes?" There were some nods around the room, and Yoden found himself reluctantly nodding. "That means it could be literally anyone in this rusting city. It's probably someone in this building, or at least that's what I'd assume given all the important stuff is happening here. First things first, we're going to-"

The door suddenly burst open, a guard running in. "Sir!" He yelled, trying to catch his breath, "two dead bodies in the same hallway. We're trying to figure out how they died."

"Change of plans then." Goren said, standing up. He looked to those who had already been in the room, and they carefully began to surround the new guard. Just in case. "We're locking everyone up in the main hall for now, if they aren't there already. We're staying here until we figure this rusting thing out." He shook his head. "Two new murders and a Faceless Immortal in the same night?"

~

Araris Valerian has died! They were the Kandra!
Devotary of Spontaneity has been killed! They were a Loyalist Spinner Ferring and Thief!
Flyingbooks has been killed! They were a Loyalist Oracle/Windwhisper Twinborn!

A secret has been revealed!

Quote

Kandra: Once per game, the Kandra can choose a target to turn into a new Kandra. The original player is killed and revealed to be the Kandra. If the Kandra is killed without choosing a replacement, a random player is converted instead, though they can specify a player they would wish to replace them in the event of their death. The old Kandra can still talk in the Kandra doc, though they do not get access to the dead/spectator doc. The new Kandra does not keep their original role(s). If an elim is converted, they remain in the elim doc and have access to the elim kill. The Kandra also has a kill available to them every night turn.

PMs are still closed, so please avoid PMing still. In addition, there will be a removal this turn. As a reminder, there is no vote minimum, and a tied vote will result in one of the tied players being removed.

This turn will end at 9 am CDT on Saturday, June 12th.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Ashbringer
2. @Biplet - Shara, advisor to a representative of the third Octant, Iden. 
3. @Szeth_Pancakes - Earl Euphemie, a journalist from the Elendel Daily, definitely not a highly trained assassin.
4. @Matrim's Dice - Philico, here to steal Faleast's Kandra thunder.
5. Lotus - Josephine, definitely not out of her league. Rebel Pulser/Pinnacle Twinborn
6. Araris Valerian - Sweeper, a lowly cleaner of the political chamber building. Kandra
7. The Unknown Order - Walker, who...walks. Yeah. Loyalist Slider/Gasper Twinborn
8. @DrakeMarshall - Juno, member of the Board of Somethingorother, and an enthusiastic protestor.
9. Jondesu - Myra, not witty or even particularly bright, but she’s honest. Loyalist Rioter Misting
10. @Archer - The Great Panini, wealthy patron of the arts and amateur ventriloquist, accompanied by Bagel.
11. Illwei Loyalist Seeker Misting and Hemalurgist
12. Experience - Zara, questionably loyal, but in extreme ways. Loyalist Tineye Misting and Investigator
13. Devotary of Spontaneity - Magrait, an amalgamation of Adomert and Inedze through their stored memories from a coppermind. Loyalist Spinner Ferring and Thief
14. Azmine_king Loyalist Hazekiller
15. Mist - Lumen, a secretary who's trying her best and wants to bring justice to whoever needs it. Loyalist Leecher/Soulbearer Twinborn
16. |TJ| Loyalist Lurcher/Trueself Twinborn
17. manukos - Bill, Bill Door. Probably shaped like a triangle. Loyalist Augur/Connector Twinborn
18. @Dannex
19. Flyingbooks - Veren, assistant to the Elendel representatives, playing both sides to get the nobility less influence in politics. Loyalist Oracle/Windwhisper Twinborn!

PMs will be sent out shortly, if they haven't been already.

Edited June 10, 2021 by StrikerEZ

[Biplet]

??????????????????????????

[Mat]

I don't even want to try to figure out those kills -_-.

Hilarious Araris was the kandra again. Makes me want to kick out Ash just because he's obviously the successor again xD

But then no, we're probably in exelo, or at least close to it. Gah.

[Ashbringer]

... in case anyone has forgotten, Araris was the original Kandra in LG66 as well (Strikerrr ). I congratulate you on the job well done this time around. And Striker, thank you for making the Kandra role a much more viable role!

... and no, he didn't make me the Kandra. For one thing, Araris isn't the type to mess around that kind of way and pick me for the precedent instead of someone he thinks has best chance of winning. For another, I've still got my roles with me.

(But you go, whoever you are! I'm rooting for you in spirit.)

[StrikerEZ]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

... in case anyone has forgotten, Araris was the original Kandra in LG66 as well (Strikerrr )

[Mat]

Hey, anyone who hasn't claimed already, can you consider doing that? It potentially could be useful.

[DrakeMarshall]

Well then, I was right about Araris at least.

If I am reading things correctly, it looks like the eliminators decided to leave Araris alone last night. I'm betting Araris took a shot at Devotary and then used his other action to pass the torch to his chosen successor which btw I am unhappy is not me but then maybe that would have been too obvious

I am guessing the eliminators targeted Books, because books was a quite strong village read of very many people. After Illwei books was probably the most sensible target.

 

Anyways, the results are... Fairly dire for the village, really. We lost two villagers and a Kandra tonight, which means there are only 7 players left.

Of those, I expect 3 eliminators, 1 Kandra, and 3 villagers. We only technically have the majority with the Kandra on our side. Also, one of the 7 is inactive, which unfortunately could be decisive. (@Dannex it's really not too late to show up though!!)

Basically, the odds are against the village right now. Very. The wrong execution will end the game before we can even get to the night turn, and our margin for preventing a misex is small even if everyone plays perfectly.

But yeah enough fatalism nonsense lets do one last push yeah? The game wouldn't still be running if we couldn't still win. It's quite possible the Kandra converted an eliminator, for example, which would be really good news. It's also quite possible that the village is in possession of vote manipulation. Its also quite possible that Dannex is an inactive eliminator and not an inactive villager. And I'm pretty sure I know who is Evil, finally. I am regretting D4.

 

I have a rule.

It's a deceptively simple rule but it has rarely if ever lead me astray.

If somebody gets put up for execution multiple times and keeps coming out of it unscathed, they have a team backing them up. It really doesn't matter what circumstantial justifications are provided, when you look at the big picture, there is no single stronger indicator that somebody is benefiting from the support of a team.

Matrim's Dice.

Three times now, you have survived being placed up for execution.

I do not intend to let you slip the noose a fourth time.

The odds that you are evil are overwhelmingly high.

I could give other reasons, such as the significant constraints of process of elimination forced by the deaths over the last two turns, or the fact that I think a villager would be much more motivated to think of village strategies to use their role, or the fact that you have more roles than you are saying, or the fact that your defense has always felt somewhat akin to irritation at being suspected correctly but based on a faulty argument. But the one reason is sufficient.

[Archer]

Of course. That’s why he targeted low activity players. At least we know he didn’t communicate with the elim team. Wow that kandra purple is splendid. Would he have turned a villager or a potential elim? AHHHH. (Well guessed, Bip)

I mentioned having a plan last night, hoping to get roleblocked in Araris’ stead. It didn’t happen.

Araris had two actions, so he could have conceivably submitted a kill and committed suicide. (Right GMs, OOA allows for that?) Then the other kill would be from the elims. Likely they picked Flyingbooks, as the more confirmed townie than Devo. Araris seemed on the fence about Mat, so if he was village aligned, as he seemed, it’s possible he wanted to see the other theif’s alignment flip.

Striker, if an elim is made into the kandra, is their wincon still to help the evil team win? Otherwise they should just submit their own kill as well as the NK every night seconds before rollover to override the elim team’s wishes.

There’s seven of us left. Assuming a four-person elim team minus Lotus, it’s either 3e:3v:1vk or 4v:2e:1ek. Either way, we’re at exlo and need to kill an elim today to have a chance of victory.

I was hoping Dannex or someone was the kandra because it meant we had more villagers we could be confident in. As it stands, my reads are:

Village: Archer, Drake

Slight good: Ash

Null: Dannex

Slight evil: Szeth

Evil: Biplet, Mat

We can assume the elims will use every tool at their disposal to block and move votes, so we need to as well. However, Mat asking for roleclaims makes me not want to do it any more. :P. I still think he’s the best target. We know the other Thief is village, doesn’t it make sense that he’d be evil? But I’m willing to do Biplet as well. We need at least a three person voting bloc. Ideally four. The elims will likely hammer late in the day if they have the opportunity.

[Biplet]

21 minutes ago, Archer said:

Well guessed, Bip

Wait what did I guess? Lol

[Archer]

3 minutes ago, Biplet said:

Wait what did I guess? Lol

From Night Three

Quote

Okay, I have a crack theory.

We haven't been seeing Kandra kills. We have coinshot kills and elim kills, plus the Illwei/Ventyl hema kill, but no Kandra kills. From what I've gathered, the Kandra had a kill ability in LG66, so either the Kandra is hesitant to use their ability (doubtful) or they have something else going on.

That brings me to my wild theory: what if the kandra started as an elim.

Look, we haven't found them yet, and everyone is throwing around wild kandra theories, but as far as I can tell, we haven't heard a peep from them. Could be bc TUO is the Kandra, but I wouldn't put it past Striker to do something screwy and way throw us off our game. This would align with Illwei's post that implies the possibility of five elims. If one of them is the kandra, that would leave us with four elims + a kandra with access to the NK.

Am I wrong? Maybe. Probably. But this possibility has been sitting in my mind constantly since we haven't seen any kandra kills. Of course, I'm operating under the assumption that the elims have been doing their NKs. There's a slim chance that none of the NKs are elim but??? That's honestly highly unlikely. I'm more inclined to believe it's the Kandra NKs we're missing.

I could also be crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if the Kandra is a hemalurgist (yes Illwei I think you could be the Kandra).

Edit: nevermind, I thought you guessed the kandra was the coinshot. You were on the right track anyway

Edited June 10, 2021 by Archer

[Mat]

I am fine with Szeth or Biplet.

38 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

If somebody gets put up for execution multiple times and keeps coming out of it unscathed, they have a team backing them up. It really doesn't matter what circumstantial justifications are provided, when you look at the big picture, there is no single stronger indicator that somebody is benefiting from the support of a team.

Yeah I had a team backing me up, it's called the other villagers. Pretty much without fail. TJ, Ventyl, Devo, all confirmed villagers who actively supported me living at one point or another. I can throw you, Ash and Archer on that list as well even though you're technically not confirmed.

You want to know my rule? If after a few good attempts to exe someone you still can't pin down exactly why, it's a bad exe. That's what I've seen over and over and I assure you exeing me right now will not help us win.

38 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

or the fact that you have more roles than you are saying

Ha

This is new actually :P. At the time of my claim I was not lying.

28 minutes ago, Archer said:

However, Mat asking for roleclaims makes me not want to do it any more. :P.

Twas a suggestion, Archer. We're looking for a RBer, are we not?

Edited June 10, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[danex]

Alllllll right I can finally post now.

Y’all might’ve noticed that I kinda disappeared 

this was very intentional

for I am a Sparker. 

I figured that If I wanted to survive the 6 entire turns necessary to store enough to get an alignment scan, I needed to fly heavily below the radar.

I scanned someone last night who was revealed to be a villager. This isn’t the outcome I was hoping for, but having even one confirmed vil is at least somewhat helpful. 

I’m not sure whether or not to reveal who I scanned, since they would obviously become an elim kill target, so I’ll just ask them. 

Every single villager, please post in the thread whether or not you’d want me to reveal who you are, and if the person I scanned would want me to reveal it, I will. 
 

Edit: If this person is up for the exe I’ll reveal it no matter what.

Edited June 10, 2021 by Dannex

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Every single villager, please post in the thread whether or not you’d want me to reveal who you are, and if the person I scanned would want me to reveal it, I will. 

Please :P. Please have scanned me. Yes, I'm beyond fine with that.