Long Game 77: A Political Trap

[Archer]

Imagine being an investigator and getting to scan someone every round for free

Dannex conf town, very cool. Would you be able to tell if someone was kandrafied? Or would that happen after the scan? @StrikerEZ, where's it fit into the OOA? 

If you scanned me, go ahead and reveal. It doesn't really matter who they kill, a villager is a villager. 

Who are you leaning towards when it comes to the exe? Your vote will be needed. 

[Mat]

10 minutes ago, Archer said:

Dannex conf town, very cool. Would you be able to tell if someone was kandrafied? Or would that happen after the scan? @StrikerEZ, where's it fit into the OOA? 

So you're saying I should banish my sudden thought that Dannex is fake-claiming to clear a teammate

I can answer your question since I was a Sparker in the original run of this game, scanned Ash the cycle he was kandrafied, and was promptly killed the same cycle  

[DrakeMarshall]

45 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I am fine with Szeth or Biplet.

Biplet would not have suggested the existence of an eliminator Thug on D1 as the eliminator Thug.

In addition to being hopelessly mindgamey to an extent that very few players are, such a gambit would be just plain not a good strategy.

45 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Yeah I had a team backing me up, it's called the other villagers. Pretty much without fail. TJ, Ventyl, Devo, all confirmed villagers who actively supported me living at one point or another. I can throw you, Ash and Archer on that list as well even though you're technically not confirmed.

You want to know my rule? If after a few good attempts to exe someone you still can't pin down exactly why, it's a bad exe. That's what I've seen over and over and I assure you exeing me right now will not help us win.

You're wrong.

Every eliminator ever who dodges the execution is defended by a great many villagers. That isn't the point.

In aggregate, when somebody survives many executions on end, there is more in play than just villagers. Villagers are capricious. I know villagers are capricious because some of those times you survived I was defending you and others I was trying my best to kill you.

Like I said, circumstantial evidence works for any isolated occasion, but at some point the big picture kicks in. The rule I am citing comes from quite a few games I have experienced and if you really want I can go back and cite them all. It proved false in maybe one of all of those examples?

At this point, I would happily stake the game on the fact that you are Evil. You are either an eliminator or you were one last cycle.

45 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

This is new actually :P. At the time of my claim I was not lying.

Yeah, I know you bought the charged spike, which btw is a contradiction of claiming that as a village!Thief it was your duty to get as much boxings as possible and claim the Lerasium alloy, but that is not even what I was talking about.

I am aware of the existence of several roles, and I know that nobody could have started the game with two allomantic powers. Therefore, I believe you must have started the game as a Soother or a Leecher.

Or at least, that was the case before Dannex showed up and revealed they were actually active and submitting actions while pretending to be totally inactive. Now it is quite possible that you are telling the truth about this. Indeed, I am inclined to believe that you . Although I hope you understand that this doesn't negate literally any of my other points, and I am still very confident that you are Evil.

45 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Twas a suggestion, Archer. We're looking for a RBer, are we not?

I'd wager it's Ashbringer.

42 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Alllllll right I can finally post now.

Y’all might’ve noticed that I kinda disappeared 

this was very intentional

for I am a Sparker. 

I figured that If I wanted to survive the 6 entire turns necessary to store enough to get an alignment scan, I needed to fly heavily below the radar.

I scanned someone last night who was revealed to be a villager. This isn’t the outcome I was hoping for, but having even one confirmed vil is at least somewhat helpful. 

I’m not sure whether or not to reveal who I scanned, since they would obviously become an elim kill target, so I’ll just ask them. 

Every single villager, please post in the thread whether or not you’d want me to reveal who you are, and if the person I scanned would want me to reveal it, I will. 

I don't particularly trust you, but I vote that you reveal the result of this scan. It doesn't matter about painting a target on someone's back for the night kill if we don't even survive the day.

I am not very happy about leaning on the sort of strategy you are describing, but that is not really a thing we need to address right now.

EDIT: Also are you a Soother?

Edited June 10, 2021 by DrakeMarshall

[danex]

8 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

: Also are you a Soother?

I am a duralumin gnat, which is completely useless for me without any items.

[Mat]

19 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Yeah, I know you bought the charged spike, which btw is a contradiction of claiming that as a village!Thief it was your duty to get as much boxings as possible and claim the Lerasium alloy, but that is not even what I was talking about.

I know it’s contradictory, but you can’t blame me for buying it the cycle before I thought I was about to die. As an elim I wouldn’t buy it because I’m going for the alloy, I bought it because I thought I was about to die and wanted to do something

21 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I am aware of the existence of several roles, and I know that nobody could have started the game with two allomantic powers. Therefore, I believe you must have started the game as a Soother or a Leecher.

Well you’re wrong. I didn’t.

21 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I'd wager it's Ashbringer.

Ash

I repeat, exeing me is directly opposing a village win.

[Ashbringer]

Okay hang on.

39 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Alllllll right I can finally post now.

Y’all might’ve noticed that I kinda disappeared 

this was very intentional

for I am a Sparker. 

I figured that If I wanted to survive the 6 entire turns necessary to store enough to get an alignment scan, I needed to fly heavily below the radar.

I scanned someone last night who was revealed to be a villager. This isn’t the outcome I was hoping for, but having even one confirmed vil is at least somewhat helpful. 

I’m not sure whether or not to reveal who I scanned, since they would obviously become an elim kill target, so I’ll just ask them. 

Every single villager, please post in the thread whether or not you’d want me to reveal who you are, and if the person I scanned would want me to reveal it, I will. 
 

Edit: If this person is up for the exe I’ll reveal it no matter what.

That's... not how the Sparker works.

The "don't take another action" part of the charging doesn't stop you from using actions in the Night, it just means you can't do two day actions. So the first turn you can Alignment Scan is N3, not N4. Because that's what Mat did to me LG66, scanned me N3.

(Speaking of which, I was converted in LG66 in N2. So I'd been a Kandra for a cycle by the time Mat scanned me, so who knows which is first in the OoA.)

... that's a... weird mistake to make. Paranoid!Ash is thinking it's from Dannex just reading the Sparker role and making a post from that. But if Dannex has been literally just been putting in "store Zinc" orders every three days then I could see him not understanding it.

 

As for me, I don't like roleclaiming. That, at least, I've been consistent about. (Unless you're Drake, who's only played the game where I claimed to two Elims in the first two cycles. Well... you get three guesses why I don't like roleclaiming.) I will say I don't have much in the way of "results", but I haven't been doing nothing all game. 

[danex]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

That's... not how the Sparker works.

The "don't take another action" part of the charging doesn't stop you from using actions in the Night, it just means you can't do two day actions. So the first turn you can Alignment Scan is N3, not N4. Because that's what Mat did to me LG66, scanned me N3.

(Speaking of which, I was converted in LG66 in N2. So I'd been a Kandra for a cycle by the time Mat scanned me, so who knows which is first in the OoA.)

... that's a... weird mistake to make. Paranoid!Ash is thinking it's from Dannex just reading the Sparker role and making a post from that. But if Dannex has been literally just been putting in "store Zinc" orders every three days then I could see him not understanding it.

I didn’t store D1 because of direct misinformation from the GM a misunderstanding. 

[Ashbringer]

... huh.

[danex]

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

... huh.

Let me elaborate

on D1 when I first got my GM PM, I asked this: 

Quote

Okay, so if I burn Duralumin D1, I get to take 2 actions N2? How does that work exactly? Could I then Burn Duralumin twice and get 3 actions on D2? And then burn Duralumin 3 times on D2, getting me 4 actions on N2? Can I keep stacking them like that?

And then how does it work with me also being a Sparker? Say I Burn Duralumin D1. Then I can take 2 actions N1. Can I store Zinc twice? So on D2 I’d have 2 Zinc charges stored? 

(Not an exact quote)

To which Striker responded with “Yeah, I think that’s all correct” (also not an exact quote)

So I burned Duralumin D1 instead of storing, and then later realized I can only Store once per cycle and only on Day turns. 

[DrakeMarshall]

Hmmm this may be unwise but @Archer are you the Soother?

You are free not to answer but I am curious.

Edited June 11, 2021 by DrakeMarshall

[StrikerEZ]

2 hours ago, Archer said:

@StrikerEZ, where's it fit into the OOA? 

At the same time as/right after kills, since it would happen when the Kandra dies.

[Archer]

Thanks, Striker. Also, nice writeup. 

Dannex, the elims will exe a villager tommorow night, because they won't exe their teammates. There's a small chance they'll hit the kandra instead, so that's the one thing you need to consider. Might be worth not giving them a perfect target? But if it was Drake, he has a Vest. I think a better approach would be saying whether our top sus, Mat, is who you scanned. Then, uh, use your best judgement! Tomorrow Night right before rollover you should say who it is in case YOU get NKed. 

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Hmmm this may be unwise but @Archer are you the Soother?

You are free not to answer but I am curious.

Mat asking didn't work so you decide to try yourself? Pfft it's like you're not even trying to distance 

I have been vote manipulating, but I'm not a soother. On Day One and Day Three I cancelled my votes by storing bronze. My feruchemical ability is Sentry. In another world, if I'd had some sort of protection, I could have found out who targeted me with an NK, or if I'd had enough charges, I could have identified the thief, but as such it hasn't been good for anything but subtly forcing a tie between Biplet and Matrim D3.
There was vote manipulation D2 that wasn't me. I believe based on TJ and Mist's flips, provided Mat and Drake don't own up to a feruchemical ability that did it, that a vote was soothed off of Biplet. A vote was soothed off of Mat D1 when different players voted anyway, so I'm pretty sure it had to be soother activity. One exists and chose to protect Mat and Biplet. Not the best look, despite what I said earlier. I hope that helps you guess at the elim team roles. Since there hasn't been any rioting, you should be pretty close to knowing what everyone has, ya? Assuming no repeats.
I wasn't lying in our PM, D1, Drake. If you reread it, my assumption should tell you everything you need to know. The most I want to say publicly is if we make it through the night, we might not be in as bad shape as it looks. Or am I bluffing? :P.

Also, Mat, Ash and... Who is your third, Drake, if you're not eliming Biplet? 

Matrim's Dice

[Mat]

How many times do I need to say it

Exeing me will make the village lose.

Szeth

[danex]

14 minutes ago, Archer said:

I think a better approach would be saying whether our top sus, Mat, is who you scanned.

I did not scan mat. 

[DrakeMarshall]

4 hours ago, Archer said:

Mat asking didn't work so you decide to try yourself? Pfft it's like you're not even trying to distance 

I have been vote manipulating, but I'm not a soother. On Day One and Day Three I cancelled my votes by storing bronze. My feruchemical ability is Sentry. In another world, if I'd had some sort of protection, I could have found out who targeted me with an NK, or if I'd had enough charges, I could have identified the thief, but as such it hasn't been good for anything but subtly forcing a tie between Biplet and Matrim D3

That's right in addition to me being eliminator teammates with Araris I am also eliminator teammates with Matrim  How dare you impugn my flawless distancing skills 

More seriously, I didn't know Matrim already asked. If I knew you were already opposed to volunteering this information I would not have asked.

I already knew you are a Sentry, I knew that for a few cycles. I also know you stored bronze last night. The surprise tie was clever, although I am a tad curious what your motive for that was.

The thing is if you're not a Soother then that has... Implications.

Quote

There was vote manipulation D2 that wasn't me. I believe based on TJ and Mist's flips, provided Mat and Drake don't own up to a feruchemical ability that did it, that a vote was soothed off of Biplet. A vote was soothed off of Mat D1 when different players voted anyway, so I'm pretty sure it had to be soother activity. One exists and chose to protect Mat and Biplet. Not the best look, despite what I said earlier. I hope that helps you guess at the elim team roles. Since there hasn't been any rioting, you should be pretty close to knowing what everyone has, ya? Assuming no repeats.
I wasn't lying in our PM, D1, Drake. If you reread it, my assumption should tell you everything you need to know. The most I want to say publicly is if we make it through the night, we might not be in as bad shape as it looks. Or am I bluffing? :P.

Yeah I don't really get what you are hinting at with our PM but I'll probably figure it out at some point if there's something to be figured out.

Quote

Also, Mat, Ash and... Who is your third, Drake, if you're not eliming Biplet? 

Matrim's Dice

I... I don't really know who my third is.

I don't really trust any of y'all completely  You know, it could be you, and that's not a very nice thought. Weirdly, I think it could also be Szeth.

I don't really like what Dannex did but I don't think it's an elim thing either. (although it is kinda hard to come out of things looking good when you claim to be an alignment scanner the day of exlo)

Hrm..................

Well now that's food for thought isn't it.

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Szeth

Sorry to ask this but if hypothetically at some point I wanted to switch to Ashbringer would you consider voting with me?

[Mat]

7 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Sorry to ask this but if hypothetically at some point I wanted to switch to Ashbringer would you consider voting with me?

Ashbringer.

[DrakeMarshall]

Yeah so I may live to regret this but Ashbringer.

Most remaining roles I know of are either confirmed or have surprisingly believable claims. Unless somebody is lying, the Leecher is either Ash or Archer, and my money would be on Ash.

I’ve got maybe some concerns that this will just be executing the Kandra, because for several reasons I would have probably considered converting Ash in Araris’ place, but regardless I can be reasonably sure Ash at least started out as the elim!Leecher so... Should be a safe exe for today, which we kinda need, even if I definitely still have some questions about other things.

[Archer]

When I wake up tomorrow, I'll add my vote to the village consensus, whatever it is. Mat's vote doesn't matter to me, it's what Dannex, Drake, and one of Biplet/Ash think. 

I'm willing to give Drake the benefit of the doubt, but I'd like to see the receipts. You could be kandra for all we know. If you can show that Ash is absolutely the roleblocker, I'll support the exe. But until then, the reads are leading me more to Mat. I equally sussed him and Biplet not too long ago (hence why I liked the tie). Moving onto Ash, beyond Biplet, and away from Mat this round... it's doable for me, but I'd like to see the process that took us there. 

And some VILLAGE support too. I fully expect a hammer if the opportunity presents itself, so currently votes from elims mean nothing. 

@Dannex @Biplet thoughts on trying Ash? 

[Biplet]

Just now, Archer said:

thoughts on trying Ash? 

Well I was gonna vote Mat, and I think it's weird that Drake decided to move his vote. But I'll vote Ash if you have a really good argument.

Sorry I haven't voted yet. Drove for 3+ hours today

[danex]

15 minutes ago, Archer said:

@Dannex thoughts on trying Ash? 

Mayyyyyybe…

I’d like a better explanation for why though. 

I might just try and get another Store in too, but given that it’s exelo that might not be the best idea. (Sparker’s can’t vote while storing)

[DrakeMarshall]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

 

I'm willing to give Drake the benefit of the doubt, but I'd like to see the receipts.

Yes I will plan to show all of my work in a couple hours.

I have regrettably been traveling basically this entire day, but it is high time I laid all my cards on the table.

Especially because I’m really not sure about things and I want to ask all of the village’s opinion, with the information I am looking at.

[Biplet]

Okay, so for now, I'm going to vote Mat unless I see evidence presented otherwise. I think it's pretty much a given at this point that Mat isn't village, despite his claim that his death will hurt the village. I'm curious what Drake has to say.

[StrikerEZ]

@Ashbringer @Biplet @Matrim's Dice @Szeth_Pancakes @DrakeMarshall @Archer @Dannex Sorry about the delay for this, but here's your about 9.5 hour reminder to get any votes and actions submitted before the turn ends! Also, here's a VC:

Ashbringer (2): DrakeMarshall, Matrim's Dice
Matrim's Dice (2): Archer, Biplet

[DrakeMarshall]

It's not often people invite me to make a probably gigantic post spitting out all my thoughts, you know? 

Still I will seek to have mercy on you all and be concise, or at least as concise as I am capable of being whilst running on approximately 2 hours of sleep and a cup of mocha.

I could probably make a couple extra boxings splitting it into many posts, but I'd rather have all of this in one place and posted immediately. I've already waited longer in the cycle than I wanted to post this.

I warn you, there is a reason I sat on some of this. Some of it could help the eliminators. But I'm hoping it will help the village more. I need help making sense of all of this tbh.

 

Part 1: Role Analysis

Thankfully, I may omit all analysis on now dead players.

1. Ashbringer - ???
2. Biplet - Confirmed Thug, which I kinda did not expect given how they reacted to the whole being threatened thing. Definitely not a Thief, probably not a Hazekiller or Investigator, but quite potentially a ferring of some kind.
3. Szeth_Pancakes - Nicroburst + Subsumer Twinborn. I was able to confirm the former role D1. Lotus also had an anti-roleblock power, and I somewhat doubt the eliminators would need a second one of those, which is a slight point in Szeth's favor. On the flip side, while I don't take it personally that they stopped Nicrobursting me after our deal fell through, I am kind of curious what the heck they have been doing with their ability for the last few cycles since I've never heard any villagers report getting helped by Szeth.
4. Matrim's Dice - Confirmed Thief. Will by now have also implanted a charged spike with a random unknown ability. It is mechanically possible that Matrim is concealing a second role they started out with, although my gut says Matrim was telling the truth about this particular thing.
5. DrakeMarshall - Archivist. Sadly, just an Archivist, and not one that has found out anything terribly interesting, although I can share tidbits to confirm like how I know Archer stored bronze last night for some reason, or how I knew/suspected a lot of y'alls roles before you claimed. In your position, I would probably suspect me of having an allomantic ability hidden, but I do not.
6. Archer - Sentry + ???. And I am fairly sure they do have a second role, specifically an allomantic one. That is something I gathered from their D1 role analysis and our PM. What that second role is, I do not know exactly.
7. Dannex - Sparker + Duralumin Gnat. Neither of these roles are easily mechanically confirmable, so they could theoretically be totally lying, but I don't think they are lying. The strategy Dannex is claiming to have taken is pretty extreme and is one of the only logical explanations for their deliberate lurking behavior. Also the degree of detail Dannex is coming up with about the clarifications and misunderstandings they had about their role feel like they would be hard to make up.

Conjectured Existence:

1. Soother. Multiple people including myself have already pointed out that one probably exists.
2. Leecher. Araris claimed to be roleblocked. Araris had no reason to lie about this. And what's more my Archivist power from N3 told me that Araris targeted nobody (a result the GMs confirmed was consistent with a player who had been roleblocked), which means Araris wasn't secretly just taking another action and only pretending to be roleblocked. Also note that blocking Araris was pretty much exclusively in the eliminators' interest and the Leecher is all but guaranteed to be an eliminator.

So there are two unaccounted for allomantic roles.

I know that it is only mechanically possible for these players to have allomantic roles I do not yet know about: Ashbringer, Matrim's Dice, Archer, Dannex.

Of these, I think Matrim's and Dannex's claims both actually have a ring of truth. Therefore I think it is likely that the two allomantic roles Soother and Leecher are possessed by the two players Ashbringer and Archer.

Also note that one of these players no longer has their previous role, due to how the Kandra conversion mechanic works.

 

Part 2: Reads

1. Ashbringer - They have always been on my sus list, and the way they are acting pretty calm and not apparently focused on catching eliminators today feels like strong evidence that they are Evil.
2. Biplet - I feel like they are village. Partially because Biplet teaming with the other people I find suspicious is a little too on the nose. Partially because I think Biplet talking about elim!Thugs D1 is also a little too on the nose. Partially because of gut and other hand wavey reasons I can't remember.
3. Szeth_Pancakes - I thought they were village at the beginning of the game, but my read has become more and more conflicted. Some of this pertains to the role analysis bit I said above, the rest of it pertains to general behavior in thread.
4. Matrim's Dice - I already listed a bunch of reasons this cycle why I think Matrim is Evil. I feel that most of that reasoning is still sound.
5. DrakeMarshall - I know I am a villager and apparently you all do too, although obviously I could now be the Kandra. I have been saying the whole time that Araris and I are evil teammates after all  (incidentally I am using my Archivist ability today and if I'm lucky it will let me prove I'm not the Kandra, at least unless the game ends before then)
6. Archer - I know I sussed them for a bit but I have an increasingly village read. I feel like I've been in a similar enough headspace of "oh crap the village is in danger" as Archer this last cycle, and some of their schemes like trying to lure out the elim roleblock would be very unnecessary for an eliminator. They could probably still be evil, but heck, if they are they deserve the win lol.
7. Dannex - I am automatically paranoid about anyone who claims to be an alignment scanner at exlo (probably bc that was exactly what I did the last time I was an elim ), but tbh, how they are acting is not how I would expect elim!Dannex resurfacing to act. As much as I don't like the whole "pretend to be inactive thing" it feels like a genuine village strategy, and I have a hard time envisioning elim!Dannex coming up with this lie. So... Tentatively a village read, but one that is kinda weak since it is only backed up by one cycle of activity.

 

Part 3: Voting History

Day 1:

Experience (4): |TJ|, Archer, Ashbringer, Matrim's Dice, Ventyl
Matrim's Dice (2): Araris Valerian, manukos, Szeth_Pancakes
Araris Valerian (1): DrakeMarshall
DrakeMarshall (1): Flyingbooks
Mist (1): Devotary of Spontaneity
Ventyl (1): Biplet

A delightfully active vote, if scatterbrained. Ashbringer breaks tie in Matrim's favor, with stated reasons being the avoidance of ties. Vote removed from Matrim was basically just manukos storing, and probably not significant.

Day 2:

|TJ| (6): Araris Valerian, Archer, Biplet, Devotary of Spontaneity, Flyingbooks, Szeth_Pancakes
Biplet (3): |TJ|, DrakeMarshall, Matrim's Dice, Mist
Araris Valerian (1): Ashbringer

Ashbringer does not get involved with the TJ vs Biplet vote. One of the votes on Biplet is probably Soothed.

Day 3:

Biplet (3): Araris Valerian, Archer, Devotary of Spontaneity, Matrim's Dice
Matrim's Dice (3): DrakeMarshall, Flyingbooks, Illwei
Araris Valerian (1): Szeth_Pancakes
The Unknown Order (1): Biplet

Archer unlikely to be E/E with Matrim.

Day 4:

The Unknown Order (5): Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, Biplet, DrakeMarshall, Matrim's Dice
Matrim's Dice (3): Archer, Flyingbooks, Szeth_Pancakes
Biplet (1): Devotary of Spontaneity

Potential defense of Matrim by Ash and/or Bip, as Archer(?) already pointed out.

 

Part 4: Conclusion

So who is the Soother and who is the Leecher?

Well, I already said I'm pretty sure the two allomantic roles are possessed by the two players Archer and Ashbringer.

Archer said they aren't the Soother.

I think Archer is lying, and is in fact a Soother. I am village reading Archer for the reasons I gave before, and I have also noticed that Archer seems much more confident than I do about there being a next turn in the game, which feels like something that would come out of knowing for sure that there is a village!Soother. They have also expressed concerns about revealing too much information that would paint targets on people's backs, so denying that they are a Soother is completely consistent with how Archer has been playing so far. If my hunch is correct, than Ashbringer is very probably the eliminator!Leecher.

Or Archer could be telling the truth. In which case, Archer must be the eliminator!Leecher. This is certainly reasonable grounds for some to suspect Archer. In this case, Archer might also know for sure that a village!Soother exists (if the elim team does not include the Soother) and therefore this could also explain why Archer appears to be planning for a turn after this one. Obviously, if Archer is in fact the Leecher, then Ashbringer isn't.

That is why I voted on Ashbringer. I am reasonably confident that they are the eliminator!Leecher, or at least that they were the eliminator!Leecher (bc they could have been converted last night). In this case, Ashbringer would be a fairly safe vote, in the sense that it would definitely remove an Evil and it would under no circumstances allow the eliminators to reach parity before the D6 execution is decided.

Also, Matrim voted for Ashbringer, and as much as I really suspect Matrim, this vote intrigued me. I strongly suspected a Matrim and Ashbringer eliminator team, so why the beans did Matrim vote for Ashbringer?

Well, there are a few possible explanations to that.

One possible explanation is that spreading village votes between multiple eliminators and then hammering right at the end is a totally viable tactic for exlo. This assumes that the eliminators can actually all be online at rollover, though, which while possible does not seem the most likely.

Another possible explanation is that there is (perhaps justified) conflict between the eliminators. I would be totally unsurprised if Araris managed to bag an eliminator as his successor. A Kandra!eliminator is totally disastrous for the elim team, since the Kandra can hijack the eliminator kill in addition to using their own intrinsic kill ability, and furthermore an elim-turned-Kandra should probably wish to weaken the eliminator team right now, so such internal strife could actually make complete sense. In this case, killing either Matrim or Ashbringer would be a decent choice, it should not matter much which one we chose.

• Edit: Since I didn’t get to it anywhere else, I will also note here that both Matrim and Ashbringer would have been potentially rather clever conversion choices by Araris in their own ways. Matrim bc then Araris could have targeted both thieves in a (possibly flawed) attempt to ensure that at least one eliminator was hit, keeping the game from ending in the Kandra’s defeat which was a pretty big danger. Ash bc not claiming kinda makes it a bit less of an issue that your old role was stripped from you, and bc converting someone you think could be an elim has significant potential gains. Edit2: Also because Matrim keeps saying “if you kill me the village loses” and that feels like it might be another technically true but misleading statement similar to the “I only started with one role” thing, not “I’m village” but “you need me to win” bc Matrim is the Kandra. But enough about Kandra conspiracies back to our regularly scheduled programming of catching elims /edit

Obviously, another possibility is that Matrim and Ashbringer aren't E/E teammates. And if it's between Matrim and Ashbringer, if one of my reads on them had to be wrong, I guess I'd rather trust in my role analysis of Ashbringer being the Leecher, if only by a narrow margin. Because I am fairly confident in that role analysis. And even if it were wrong, that would probably make Archer evil, and I already noted that I don't think Archer and Matrim are E/E, so in that case Matrim is probably good, and Ashbringer would therefore still be the better choice for the exe.

So uh... Yeah. That is basically my thought process. There are a few different possibilities I can see, but in every case it feels like Ashbringer could be an execution that is more likely to succeed than Matrim.

I am still deeply paranoid about the fact that I can't think of a third member of the elim team that clicks, and I am also deeply paranoid that whether or not Ashbringer is Evil my decision to split the vote will still have doomed the village. I will hear out a case for a different vote.

@Archer @Biplet @Dannex this is my thoughts, which in some way shape or form you said you sorta wanted me to explain. Sorry if it was long. I am interested on what your thoughts on my thoughts are 

Edited June 12, 2021 by DrakeMarshall

[Ashbringer]

I spy, with my little eye... a tie!

... the fact those all rhyme but don't end the same disturbs me.

I had work 4:00-11:00 today, so... sorry I wasn't here. What I'm going to do about that in the future I'm not sure, but seeing as I'm running the next MR instead of playing I better figure it out quick. But that's neither here nor there.

Matrim's Dice. At this point, there's not much I can do or say with what I've got.