Long Game 68: Studies of Ashyn

[Mat he/him]

To @Vapor who just posted in the YELLY-YELL GROUP!!!

No PM's, remember!

[Vapor she/her]

Oh shoot. My bad, ignore that. I'm stupid.

[|TJ| he/him]

11 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Idk if he was lying or not, I mean, I would kinda be wary of even saying that on D1, but this is kinda making me think that biology does exist and it includes TJ and Lahilt?

I'm assure you I'm not. I even mistook the dead Medicine people and Araris as Biologists, remember. We don't want to spread misinformation among village. Lahilt probably told a random letter to prevent other people from knowing his Background if they had the same as his. It was D1, and like you said, one would be wary about giving even a clue of their role. I really think there are only 5 Backgrounds.

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

I'm assure you I'm not. I even mistook the dead Medicine people and Araris as Biologists, remember. We don't want to spread misinformation among village. Lahilt probably told a random letter to prevent other people from knowing his Background if they had the same as his. It was D1, and like you said, one would be wary about giving even a clue of their role. I really think there are only 5 Backgrounds.

Ash said his background letter during D1, and it is one of the ones Kas said exists. Pyro's BG he claimed was accurate as well

Also, in the illegal PM Vapor sent today she told her background letter as an 'I', one that we haven't seen before either. Are you going to assume she just lied as well? There might be more backgrounds then you think, and my point is that they're all more likely to exist than Straw's 'Mechanic'

[Illwei]

16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ash said his background letter during D1, and it is one of the ones Kas said exists. Pyro's BG he claimed was accurate as well

Also, in the illegal PM Vapor sent today she told her background letter as an 'I', one that we haven't seen before either. Are you going to assume she just lied as well? There might be more backgrounds then you think, and my point is that they're all more likely to exist than Straw's 'Mechanic'

That doesn't fit with what Kas claims is the Vote Scan background. if the backgrounds are all the same ability, which it kinda seems like it is but we don't have a lot of doubled I don't think.

Just because Pyro and Ash told the truth doesn't mean that everyone did. (is that...anecdotal...something?) also, "Background" starts with a "B" :P.

Edited August 12, 2020 by Illwei

[Lahilt he/him]

Uh yeah, I can confirm that I lied. It was day1 I was suspicious of Pyro and I had no idea what the backgrounds do. So I decided it would be safer to lie.

I have one of the known backgrounds.

Edited August 12, 2020 by Lahilt
I chose B as that would for both biology and botany.

[Vapor she/her]

44 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ash said his background letter during D1, and it is one of the ones Kas said exists. Pyro's BG he claimed was accurate as well

Also, in the illegal PM Vapor sent today she told her background letter as an 'I', one that we haven't seen before either. Are you going to assume she just lied as well? There might be more backgrounds then you think, and my point is that they're all more likely to exist than Straw's 'Mechanic'

Sorry, I did I for intern because I was being stupid again and didn't do the background. 

[Mat he/him]

40 minutes ago, Lahilt said:

Uh yeah, I can confirm that I lied. It was day1 I was suspicious of Pyro and I had no idea what the backgrounds do. So I decided it would be safer to lie.

I have one of the known backgrounds.

 

17 minutes ago, Vapor said:

Sorry, I did I for intern because I was being stupid again and didn't do the background. 

Fine, fine... and here I thought I had found something useful... 

[Vapor she/her]

Sorry for ruining your lead

[+Lotus she/her]

Ironically, this afternoon I have a migraine. So, we’ll see if I develop any powers. 

[Lahilt he/him]

 straw appears to be a good option. 

Araris: very suspicious, also I consider the power to heal a very dangerous role for an Elim as they could remove a lot of village vote manipulation giving the Elims a huge advantage.

 

Edited August 12, 2020 by Lahilt

[Elandera she/her]

Hmm. I'm not a fan of the Straw lynch at all. While I don't doubt the target scan, as I said before, there are so many village reasons for someone to have targeted Sart.

Please remember this is blackout. Anyone could be lying about their background/disease. Anyone. Even villagers who lack trust. Basing the plausibility of Straw's claim on the numbers provided from other unconfirmed claims is faulty. Is there a reason we suspect Straw more than those other claims?

As Kas said, there seem to be a fair number of roleblocks out there. It would make sense if there were anti-roleblocks available, so I don't find that claim to be unreasonable.

Is there a different, unrelated reason people are suspicious of Straw?

[Vapor she/her]

Sure, I'll vote Straw for now

[Illwei]

1 hour ago, Lahilt said:

 straw appears to be a good option. 

Araris: very suspicious, also I consider the power to heal a very dangerous role for an Elim as they could remove a lot of village vote manipulation giving the Elims a huge advantage.

In what ways is Araris very suspicious to you?

EDIT:

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

Hmm. I'm not a fan of the Straw lynch at all. While I don't doubt the target scan, as I said before, there are so many village reasons for someone to have targeted Sart.

Please remember this is blackout. Anyone could be lying about their background/disease. Anyone. Even villagers who lack trust. Basing the plausibility of Straw's claim on the numbers provided from other unconfirmed claims is faulty. Is there a reason we suspect Straw more than those other claims?

As Kas said, there seem to be a fair number of roleblocks out there. It would make sense if there were anti-roleblocks available, so I don't find that claim to be unreasonable.

Is there a different, unrelated reason people are suspicious of Straw?

Do you propose a different lynch? Because I believe that a lynch is better than no lynch, and Straw is the best option I see right now.

Edited August 13, 2020 by Illwei

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

Hmm. I'm not a fan of the Straw lynch at all. While I don't doubt the target scan, as I said before, there are so many village reasons for someone to have targeted Sart.

Please remember this is blackout. Anyone could be lying about their background/disease. Anyone. Even villagers who lack trust. Basing the plausibility of Straw's claim on the numbers provided from other unconfirmed claims is faulty. Is there a reason we suspect Straw more than those other claims?

As Kas said, there seem to be a fair number of roleblocks out there. It would make sense if there were anti-roleblocks available, so I don't find that claim to be unreasonable.

Is there a different, unrelated reason people are suspicious of Straw?

You don't say...

20 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Yeah, I was about to vote for Straw. Lotus, you should have given some other reason and seen who would have avoided lynching Straw and who would have supported, like how Sart did.

My reasoning was the same as Sart. Straw was the first person to provide Lotus as an alternate lynch to Devotary, and Lotus lynch actually gained steam before Sart action-claimed. I was also looking at people who voted in C1 and C3, but did not vote in C2, to determine who would have possibly changed Devotary's null vote to a vote on Pyro, and only players who fit that bill are Mint (who was inactive), Straw and Ashbringer. Ash actually voted and retracted, so that would put attention to him, so if we would want to move a null vote, I don't think he would vote at all. Besides, I suspect Straw more than Ashbringer, and Ashbringer's interactions with Devotary felt E-V rather than E-E. These reasons are somewhat moot now, but can add to the fact that Lotus saw Straw target Sart. 

Edit: @Matrim's Dice and anyone who had condition-actions, did you lose your power?

And...

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

5. I roughly agree with TJ. In light of Devotary being an Eliminator, we have to look at vote movements, and people who wanted to shift pressure off Devotary. While I don't think that all Eliminators clearly fought the Devotary lynch, IMO, given how hard Devotary fought and how much people were confused until Sart claimed action scanner, I think it is fair to suspect some Elims on the other votes. I'd also look out for late bandwagoners - if we theorise the Lotus lynch was competitive until it wasn't (see Sart), I think we want to look for roughly the point at which it was clear Devotary could not be saved in terms of the arguments brought to bear. That brings us to both Straw and Araris, with Straw having been more integral to that shift than Araris. (Of course, as Sart pointed out, that raises questions about Illwei and Matrim as well.) [Edit: to be clear, there are other players who count as late bandwagoners, just no bandwidth for vote analysis right now.]

If you want to argue for a different lynch, feel free. Whoever does get lynched, this shift will prove informative.

[Mint11 she/her]

Shard ate my post and I'm not rewriting it this late. Will post tomorrow. Voting on Straw for now.

[Mat he/him]

Here's a little list I put together real quick, for my reference. Sorta busy IRL right now so I have time to put reasons, though if you need them go look at my other reads lists I've posted.

If Straw flips elim, look more at: Araris, Illwei, Elandera

If Straw flips village, look more at: Lotus, TJ Shade, Ashbringer

(Note: I don't suspect any of the names in the second row, as I believe the most likely case here is that Lotus is correct about Straw having targeted Sart with the kill. This is merely who I would suspect if he did in fact flip village, though my main elim suspects/people who would be teamed with Straw are on the top)

Edited August 13, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Elandera she/her]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

You don't say...

And...

If you want to argue for a different lynch, feel free. Whoever does get lynched, this shift will prove informative.

Thanks! I missed those bits in my skim. As I said when I joined, I'm not going to be following super closely or really analyzing posts. Especially since most of them are made while I'm sleeping. All the arguments I noticed had to do with the Lotus reveal, which didn't sit right with me.

With the evidence of the votes as well, a Straw vote makes sense.

[Vapor she/her]

Straw Elim: I'll vote Araris

Staw Village: I'll vote Lotus. I've already had moderate suspicion on her.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Vapor said:

 

Straw Elim: I'll vote Araris

 

 

What link is there between me and Straw? I’m pretty sure my only interactions with Straw this game have been a null read last cycle and a vote this one.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

25 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

What link is there between me and Straw? I’m pretty sure my only interactions with Straw this game have been a null read last cycle and a vote this one.

To be fair, that isn’t too dissimilar to how you acted with your teammates (most of the time) in LG67. Not saying I’m convinced you’re an elim, but if I don’t have any leads by D5, I’ll probably be looking into you next.

[Kasimir he/him]

5 hours ago, Elandera said:

Thanks! I missed those bits in my skim. As I said when I joined, I'm not going to be following super closely or really analyzing posts. Especially since most of them are made while I'm sleeping. All the arguments I noticed had to do with the Lotus reveal, which didn't sit right with me.

With the evidence of the votes as well, a Straw vote makes sense.

Can't complain about that since I'm in a similar predicament.

It's going to be ironic I'm saying this, but I'm intuitively somewhat uncomfortable with how little active opposition this particular lynch has attracted, especially with Araris jumping on board. (And also, as compared to what happened last cycle - especially considering we have weaker evidence qualitatively in terms of actions! Personally, I think the vote evidence is a bit stronger than Devotary lynching Pyro, though.) Active opposition as in people actively opposing and trying to shift the lynch away as opposed to everyone trying to puzzle out what is going on, and the plausibility of the Mechanic claim. To me, this is weak suggestion that something is fishy - or; well, I'll get to the or.

Some people have also noted Straw is playing uncharacteristically - I'll just say I don't play enough with Straw to be able to form a definite judgement here/there. I am weakly suspicious of the targeting and the Mechanic claim, and I don't think that should be decisive - they're more the last straw, if you will. To me, the fact Straw initiated the Lotus counterlynch and encouraged us to take a look at other lynch candidates is suspicious, though not overly [Edit: i.e. decisively] so. (I feel that encouraging the Village to not narrow down on a single candidate should never be a bad thing.) I've taken a look at the events again, and I'm more concerned with @Illwei and @Matrim's Dice stacking votes on Lotus, one after another. I notice that Mat frames the Lotus/Devotary choices as between who is more responsive - which I understand as "I'd rather lynch you than Devotary," but I also don't really understand why D3 Mat claimed that Lotus was his top Elim suspicion, which I take to be a stronger claim than "I'd rather lynch you than Devotary." If you have said that most of Lotus's reads are reads you agree with, and that Lotus is being responsive, whyever was she your top Elim suspicion?

I don't think we ever heard why Illwei stacked a vote on Lotus, and I'd like to hear it. I think those who stacked votes on Lotus especially with little seeming reason should be almost as suspicious, and this isn't the first time Illwei has been bearish on Devotary. I distrust that to some extent.

@Araris Valerian, I'm interested in why you voted for Mat as well.

[Note that if Lotus is an Elim, our reads of the D3 situation change drastically, because this means that Elims are not likely to be enthusiastic about either lynch.]

Anyway. On to my own conditionals, because everyone and their dog is doing this. If Straw is an Elim, it's worth taking a look at more of those who opposed or were disengaged from the Devotary lynch, though I don't really think all the Eliminators will be hiding there. Worth a look at everyone who went after Lotus too, IMO. And Elan.

If Straw is a Villager, what I really want time to do is to look at players who are both:

A) either opposing the Devotary lynch or late to join in, and

B ) hanging back from the Straw lynch or participated unenthusiastically or

C)* directing attention to players actively pushing the Straw lynch.

C) might be a bit controversial, so I've asterisked it. My personal read is that it doesn't mean that we don't necessarily have Elims pushing for the Straw lynch, but this seems to me to once again be risky. As a matter of profile, Sart was a direct threat as a more or less strongly Good Villager (huh, funny how well this playstyle fits Araris's predicted profile.) If Straw is Village, Eliminators know this is a bad lynch. They have no incentive to get caught pursuing it zealously. 

And here's the or I flagged earlier - either something is fishy, or this tells us something about how this particular Elim team (I'm guessing 3-4 more left, just based off the 1/4 rule) prefers to play. If they're not playing/killing for lynch/discussion dominance, my take is that the lack of strong opposition might really indicate a preference for subterfuge. Additionally, the Straw case might be vastly different because: Lotus declared immediately, and the votes smacked down almost immediately, which means any attempt to start a counterlynch was DOA. 

Anyway, this is the most thought y'all can get out of me this cycle. Back to work. My vote remains, as do my questions.

Edited August 13, 2020 by Kasimir

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'm interested in why you voted for Mat as well.

I probably won't be able to get back to you on this in detail until near the end of the turn or during the night. He had a couple of posts in the first two cycles that were off to me.

[Mat he/him]

9 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

What link is there between me and Straw? I’m pretty sure my only interactions with Straw this game have been a null read last cycle and a vote this one.

Like Striker said, it's not that much of a link, but there are other reasons that you are suspicious. I'll post this later, as it's own post, as I still will need to go through the cycles and put that together. But it will happen before the end of the cycle.

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Matrim's Dice stacking votes on Lotus, one after another. I notice that Mat frames the Lotus/Devotary choices as between who is more responsive - which I understand as "I'd rather lynch you than Devotary," but I also don't really understand why D3 Mat claimed that Lotus was his top Elim suspicion, which I take to be a stronger claim than "I'd rather lynch you than Devotary." If you have said that most of Lotus's reads are reads you agree with, and that Lotus is being responsive, whyever was she your top Elim suspicion?

Well, I wasn't aware that Illwei had voted Lotus when I got on the Shard to cast my vote, but that's how it happened. That is how I framed the lynch- at that time, I found Lotus more suspicious than Devotary, and she was who I found most likely to be an elim- but that flipped when Sart claimed, putting Devotary in that spot. I still found Lotus suspicious- until her first post this cycle condemning Straw. At that point I recognized an elim wouldn't lie about something like that a cycle after they lost a teammate, so I changed my mind regarding her alignment. I don't ever recall saying I agree with her reads, though, just that I now think she's village.

Araris post to come.

[Mint11 she/her]

Village reads:

• TJ Shade: voted on Devotary early last cycle when Devotary already had two votes on her by Kas
• Kas: led the Devotary lynch with Sart
• Ash: not a strong read. I almost marked him as null but if I had to choose, I'd say village. I guess his posts have been helpful to the village but I don't know how good he is at manipulation yet 
• Striker: also not a strong read but did vote for Devotary earlier than elim!Striker "had to" (when Devotary's lynch was just picking up steam but before Sart and Kas claimed)
• Vapor: asked for a tl;dr after the Devotary lynch was decided. It seems unlikely that elim!Vapor wouldn't know that a teammate was about to die and he could've asked for a summary in the elim doc
• Lotus: tbh I wasn't really sure about them, but I was convinced by Sart's N3 logic. Also looking back, interesting that Straw and Matrim tried to lynch Lotus last cycle. Sart's logic:

Quote

Lotus: Their post tonight is too evil to be actually evil. Putting TJ Shade and Striker on your Elim reads is way too out of left field.

 

Elim reads:

• Araris: ignored Kas' long post arguing for Devotary's lynch when he posted his reads (this was before Kas or Sart claimed)
• Matrim: mostly a gut read but I'll also note that they tried to defend Devotary but did so very mildly (to avoid suspicion perhaps?):

Quote

• Devotary of Spontaneity- I totally see where Kas is getting at- he has some really good points- but Devotary also makes good points, and tbh they seem relatively similar to the other games I've played with them, down to me not being able to read them very well . Their wall-of-textish analysis posts and voting patterns are all in line from what I would expect from village!Devotary. But in light of Kas's points, and partly that nagging section of my gut, I'll put Null, but leaning on Slight Village.

• Illwei: also tentatively defends Devotary (after Sart and Kas claim):

Quote

I'm going to keep my vote on Devotary because honestly it's the best lead we have right now I guess, but the more people talk about it the more I kinda doubt it. 

@Sart is there anyone you've talked to with the same ability as you? also was it a "watching devotary and saw them kill gears", "watching devotary and saw them visit gears" or a "watching gears and saw devotary visit them"? I keep seeing them lurking but not ever saying anything
Or is there anyone here that can confirm his ability? (not that that would be a great idea I guess but also none of the claimers have died so far famous last words) 

It kinda doesn't matter either way, because we're still going to Lynch devotary, which is why i see continued discussion about them as kind of suspicious...even though I'm doing it...

anyways

 

Reads are a lot more fun after an elim dies