Long Game 68: Studies of Ashyn

[Illwei]

@Ashbringer is this you claiming division? Or that you were jealed of division?

also @Lotus what surge is your power from? If you don't mind me asking?

[Ashbringer he/him]

No, that's just AraRaash commenting on another patient, since Roleblock is one of the only diseases talked about enough where I know the symptoms (lesions) and Surge (Division). That RP's not meant to claim anything (except that I do have a disease, but I'm not telling which yet).

Plus AraRaash is really interested in powers that can disintegrate things .

 

Also, I second the question about Lotus' power. While Lotus has the stronger position as the first claimer/accuser, technically Straw's claim is more solid since it has a specific role attached. Although you both having a more specific claim may be helpful.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I don’t remember commenting on the Lotus lynch attempt, although it did seem rather suspicious to me

It might’ve been Sart then. I just couldn’t remember exactly who said it.

[Kasimir he/him]

If I still had my condition-ability, it would be ironic, because I'm actually coming down with a cold rn >>;;; This is the one blasted week where everything that can happen happens. Not sure if I'm storing Fortune or something rn.

Anyway. I put in an order to check the Devotary vote. I might as well just do this before I forget. Someone @ me if someone 'fesses up to being the one who messed with the vote counts.

Thoughts on the Straw issue:

1. A target scan is unfortunately slightly weaker than an action scan. This does leave open the possibility that both Lotus and Straw are telling the truth. Any lynch on Straw should probably not be on the basis of the target scan alone. That being said, I certainly think there are other factors worth considering.

2. Given that this is a role-madness game, I'd like to ask if anyone else who has a Mechanics background is willing to come forward to confirm/deny what is being said about Mechanics. Same for anyone with Medicine. (I'm less confident on Medicine, since we have two dead and the third is Araris, but considering we have four to five Historians the last I checked, maybe it's true?)

3. Some people have commented that it seems unlikely that the Village started out with three role-blockers at once. I think that might be weak reason to worry, but that would lead us to consider Mat. (Sart is dead and Village, and TJ is high on most trust lists, including my own.) That being said, let's consider the game balance issue. If you start the Village with three role-blockers (let's just take this as a given for now) in a game, what is the natural counterbalance? IMO, people who can remove role-block abilities, e.g. Progression. And people who can make role-blocks and vote manips irrelevant.

4. Role-claims like Devotary's Transportation claim tend to be a bit more persuasive because of our ignorance. To partly combat this, I'm going to state the known backgrounds and numbers, though not the abilities they correspond to:

• History: 5
• Chemistry: 1 (putatively; 2)
• Physics: 2 
• Medicine: 3
• Realmatic Theory: 2
• Mechanics: 1

The numbers are extremely imbalanced in favour of History atm, which could be a sign that something is off, though I'm not really sure.

5. I roughly agree with TJ. In light of Devotary being an Eliminator, we have to look at vote movements, and people who wanted to shift pressure off Devotary. While I don't think that all Eliminators clearly fought the Devotary lynch, IMO, given how hard Devotary fought and how much people were confused until Sart claimed action scanner, I think it is fair to suspect some Elims on the other votes. I'd also look out for late bandwagoners - if we theorise the Lotus lynch was competitive until it wasn't (see Sart), I think we want to look for roughly the point at which it was clear Devotary could not be saved in terms of the arguments brought to bear. That brings us to both Straw and Araris, with Straw having been more integral to that shift than Araris. (Of course, as Sart pointed out, that raises questions about Illwei and Matrim as well.) [Edit: to be clear, there are other players who count as late bandwagoners, just no bandwidth for vote analysis right now.]

6. FWIW, Lotus's power checks out to me based on what I know about how Target Scanning works. She scans a player's targets. This is consistent with what Target Scanners #1 and #2 reported to me, as did something else both Lotus and Target Scanner #1 [Edit: and #2] said earlier on. But I repeat: since Lotus is a target scanner, it is technically possible for both of them to be truthful. (And of course, either or both might not be.) But in light of #5, and given the targeting claim, I'm happy to leave my vote where it is for the moment. Maybe if I have more time to come back and think about it...  [ @Ashbringer, @Illwei ] 

Edited August 12, 2020 by Kasimir

[+Lotus she/her]

27 minutes ago, Illwei said:

also @Lotus what surge is your power from? If you don't mind me asking?

That ability is from my Background, not a sickness. The disease I have is Tension.

[|TJ| he/him]

23 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Also, I second the question about Lotus' power. While Lotus has the stronger position as the first claimer/accuser, technically Straw's claim is more solid since it has a specific role attached. Although you both having a more specific claim may be helpful.

Yeah I disagree. Since Lotus' vote manipulation is Surge related, I'm going to assume Target Scanner is the result of the background (which Lotus has claimed previously as a Historian). I think it's also safe to assume Backgrounds give same power to everyone. i.e. all Historians = Target Scanners. We already have 2 dead Historians, Lotus, and other 2 Historians who have claimed to Kas to make it 5 Historians at the beginning of the game. We know there's Biology and Physics (we do not know what they do), we know there's whatever background that gives vote scanner ability, and we know about Chemistry (Chemists = Action Scanners). That's 5 Backgrounds with distribution heavily skewed towards one of them. Seriously doubt there is a 6th Background, especially if one of the Background already has 5 members. Physics (1) + Chemistry (1+1(claimed)) + History (5) + x(2(Kas + claimed)) + Biology(3) = 13. I firmly believe the rest of the 6 players are distributed among the known Backgrounds, and there is no 6th Background (making it heavily unbalanced).

And as well all know, it's easy to make up stuff, like what Devotary did (she got very creative )

Ninja'd by Kas who basically said what I said in a much neater way  and by Lotus, so the assumption in the first sentence is now true.

Edited August 12, 2020 by TJ Shade
Ninja

[Illwei]

7 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

We know there's Biology and Physics (we do not know what they do), we know there's whatever background that gives vote scanner ability, and we know about Chemistry (Chemists = Action Scanners). That's 5 Backgrounds with distribution heavily skewed towards one of them. Seriously doubt there is a 6th Background, especially if one of the Background already has 5 members. Physics (1) + Chemistry (1+1(claimed)) + History (5) + x(2(Kas + claimed)) + Biology(3) = 13. I firmly believe the rest of the 6 players are distributed among the known Backgrounds, and there is no 6th Background (making it heavily unbalanced).

Biology? if there is biology wouldn't that make it 6 7 backgrounds? History, Chemistry, Physics, Mechanics, Biology, (Realmatic Theory)?, Medicine.

Or is this you giving reasoning that what Straw says is false?

 

Edited August 12, 2020 by Illwei
added medicine

[|TJ| he/him]

Just now, Illwei said:

Or is this you giving reasoning that what Straw says is false?

There are already 2 dead Biologists right? And Araris has claimed as the 3rd. And yeah, that's why I'm telling what Straw says is false. 

[Illwei]

4 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

There are already 2 dead Biologists right? And Araris has claimed as the 3rd. And yeah, that's why I'm telling what Straw says is false. 

Are...you counting....Medical...as biologists? Are you a biologist?
 

Edited August 12, 2020 by Illwei

[Ashbringer he/him]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

6. FWIW, Lotus's power checks out to me based on what I know about how Target Scanning works. She scans a player's targets. This is consistent with what Target Scanners #1 and #2 reported to me, as did something else both Lotus and Target Scanner #1 said earlier on. But I repeat: since Lotus is a target scanner, it is technically possible for both of them to be truthful. (And of course, either or both might not be.) But in light of #5, and given the targeting claim, I'm happy to leave my vote where it is for the moment. Maybe if I have more time to come back and think about it...  [ @Ashbringer, @Illwei ] 

Fair point. But I don't like Straw coming out with a new "ability", especially when no Villager should have been using any of our known abilities (roleblocks, kills, action scans, target scans*) on Sart, who was essentially confirmed Village.

*I suppose an argument could be made for using a scan to make sure he's not making up scans for a really complicated WGG, but A.) Straw didn't claim that, B.) it's confirmed NOT a WGG, and C.) there were no dead Elims, which makes bussing one at that point a rather odd play.

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

Yeah I disagree. Since Lotus' vote manipulation is Surge related, I'm going to assume Target Scanner is the result of the background (which Lotus has claimed previously as a Historian). I think it's also safe to assume Backgrounds give same power to everyone. i.e. all Historians = Target Scanners. We already have 2 dead Historians, Lotus, and other 2 Historians who have claimed to Kas to make it 5 Historians at the beginning of the game. We know there's Biology and Physics (we do not know what they do), we know there's whatever background that gives vote scanner ability, and we know about Chemistry (Chemists = Action Scanners). That's 5 Backgrounds with distribution heavily skewed towards one of them. Seriously doubt there is a 6th Background, especially if one of the Background already has 5 members. Physics (1) + Chemistry (1+1(claimed)) + History (5) + x(2(Kas + claimed)) + Biology(3) = 13. I firmly believe the rest of the 6 players are distributed among the known Backgrounds, and there is no 6th Background (making it heavily unbalanced).

And as well all know, it's easy to make up stuff, like what Devotary did (she got very creative )

Hmm. Fair point, but I'm not sure. I find it a bit odd that Straw (Elim or Village) would use the same defense as Elim!Devotary. But a few factors (Lotus' early claim Lotus claiming background instead of the specific (which has now been provided...), Straw claiming a specific role) make me a bit more hesitant in this.

Another thing: one of the main Ashyn diseases (I believe) gives control over Gravitation. However, Straw says his background, not a disease, is "similar" to Gravitation. If he made up a surge role it has a high chance of being countered by someone who really had the role, but a made up background is much harder to be 100% proven wrong.

So I know Straw is probably lying, and my vote is staying on him. But I'm still curious if either can offer proof of their role.

[Kasimir he/him]

10 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Yeah I disagree. Since Lotus' vote manipulation is Surge related, I'm going to assume Target Scanner is the result of the background (which Lotus has claimed previously as a Historian). I think it's also safe to assume Backgrounds give same power to everyone. i.e. all Historians = Target Scanners. We already have 2 dead Historians, Lotus, and other 2 Historians who have claimed to Kas to make it 5 Historians at the beginning of the game. We know there's Biology and Physics (we do not know what they do), we know there's whatever background that gives vote scanner ability, and we know about Chemistry (Chemists = Action Scanners). That's 5 Backgrounds with distribution heavily skewed towards one of them. Seriously doubt there is a 6th Background, especially if one of the Background already has 5 members. Physics (1) + Chemistry (1+1(claimed)) + History (5) + x(2(Kas + claimed)) + Biology(3) = 13. I firmly believe the rest of the 6 players are distributed among the known Backgrounds, and there is no 6th Background (making it heavily unbalanced).

And as well all know, it's easy to make up stuff, like what Devotary did (she got very creative )

Ninja'd by Kas who basically said what I said in a much neater way  and by Lotus, so the assumption in the first sentence is now true.

1. Dude, I don't know of any Biologists. Gears and Dev had Medicine backgrounds, as @Illwei said, whereas Araris is claiming Medicine

2. I do know/strongly suspect what Physics does, but am weighing whether to tell the thread. Would like to hear input on this. Vote scanners have Realmatic Theory, which is clear from where our background numbers match up, and I might as well just come out and say this since Illwei asked previously about my D1 claim. I didn't really want to come out and say History was Target Scanners as certain people claimed Historian publicly in thread, and I wasn't certain if they wanted me painting a target on their heads  

3. I agree about the background unlikeliness - I would be more inclined to read continued silence as no other Mechanics existing, thus unable to confirm/deny. I do think that even if Mechanic exists, it would be more helpful to Elims than to Village if we look at the original set-up. But that's a weak point because it relies on distro assumptions, so I would not take it as individually decisive. (Assumptions like all three role-blockers being Village, or assumptions about the relative prevalence of Division.)

[|TJ| he/him]

20 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Are...you counting....Medicine...as biologists? Are you a biologist?

My bad, I did think Medicine as Biology xD Biologist is easier to tell than medicine...man? And I correlated Physics, Chemistry and Biology. And no geez, I'm not a biologist. How can I claim to be of the 7th Background when I'm staunchly opposing the existence of the 6th?

I also believe there has to be a certain number of players from certain Background dead for that Background Action to be unlocked (except Realmatic Theory which makes me believe there are less number of R-Theorists than others). Because for a game to start with 5 Target Scanners is literally insane. @Lotus can you confirm if you started with this ability or if you didn't, which cycle it was unlocked? 

EDIT:

15 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Hmm. Fair point, but I'm not sure. I find it a bit odd that Straw (Elim or Village) would use the same defense as Elim!Devotary.

I mean, he has to come up with a reason, he can't just come out as an elim (I mean, he could, but obviously he'll try his best not to die). Could you come up with a better reason? I reckon since he ran the LG67, he chose a power that he was very familiar with.  

Edited August 12, 2020 by TJ Shade

[+Lotus she/her]

@TJ Shade I unlocked my background-related ability D2, along with gaining my disease.

[|TJ| he/him]

2 minutes ago, Lotus said:

@TJ Shade I unlocked my background-related ability D2, along with gaining my disease.

Hmm, 2 Historians killed on D1 and N1, so it is possible. I don't know, I'm just theorizing here. 

Did you target scan someone in N2, and if so, would you mind sharing the result?

[+Lotus she/her]

5 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Hmm, 2 Historians killed on D1 and N1, so it is possible. I don't know, I'm just theorizing here. 

Did you target scan someone in N2, and if so, would you mind sharing the result?

I was going to but was waiting to figure out who to do it on and forgot. So no, I didn’t scan anyone N2.

[Vapor she/her]

It took me a while to act on this, but I saw that @Illwei used an ability or something to vote on Mist twice, and I am wondering if you have an explanation.

[Illwei]

5 minutes ago, Vapor said:

It took me a while to act on this, but I saw that @Illwei used an ability or something to vote on Mist twice, and I am wondering if you have an explanation.

So you're the other Vote Scan? @Kasimir

Yeah I have a vote manip, this was discussed D2. :P.

Edited August 12, 2020 by Illwei

[Mat he/him]

I'm face-palming myself right now because I forgot to follow the thread this morning and have spent the last few hours wondering why no one was posting :P.

Anyway, fixed now  So I can join in the discussion.

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Fair point. But I don't like Straw coming out with a new "ability", especially when no Villager should have been using any of our known abilities (roleblocks, kills, action scans, target scans*) on Sart, who was essentially confirmed Village.

Well, iirc, the ability Straw claimed is technically a helpful one, making his supposed target on Sart a good move. But I also am fairly skeptical about the role distribution and that there suddenly is a new background.

5 minutes ago, Vapor said:

It took me a while to act on this, but I saw that @Illwei used an ability or something to vote on Mist twice, and I am wondering if you have an explanation.

...

This was like the main topic D2 , yes he has vote manip.

Edit: Ninja'd by Illwei himself.

Edited August 12, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Vapor she/her]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

So you're the other Vote Scan? @Kasimir

Yeah I have a vote manip, this was discussed D2. :P.

Yes I am.

Okay makes sense. But why?

[Illwei]

Just now, Vapor said:

Okay makes sense. But why?

Why did I vote on Mist twice? because I didn't want to die and we were tied.
My question is why are you trying to bring this up now? 

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Vapor said:

Yes I am.

Okay makes sense. But why?

No she's not. Vote Scanner #2 is someone else. This would make her Vote Scanner #3, with another claim. @Illwei

Edited: Seconded question of why this is being brought up now.

Edited August 12, 2020 by Kasimir

[Vapor she/her]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Why did I vote on Mist twice? because I didn't want to die and we were tied.
My question is why are you trying to bring this up now? 

Because I forgot earlier and only remembered while I was in bed and only just remembered. Sorry for suspecting you, that makes sense.

[Kasimir he/him]

Updated backgrounds based on claim and GM data:

Quote

• History: 5
• Chemistry: 2
• Physics: 2 
• Medicine: 3
• Realmatic Theory: 3
• Mechanics: 1
• Total = 16

 

[Mat he/him]

I just remembered a piece of evidence that could further prove that Straw made up the Mechanics background: @Kasimir @TJ Shade

On D1, Mist made a group PM: The YELLY-YELL Group or something like that. It had Mist, me, Pyro, Vapor, Ash, Striker and Lahilt, me and Striker being the only ones to not speak at all in it.

In true Pyro fashion, he convinced the majority of those who could speak to reveal the first letter of their background, starting with himself.

@Lahilt said 'B', meaning there theoretically is another background already, probably an actual Biologist . Anyway, Lahilt would've been much less inclined to lie on D1 than Straw would be today, so I think this could further convict Straw.

Edited August 12, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Illwei]

22 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

 said 'B', meaning there theoretically is another background already, probably an actual Biologist . 

Idk if he was lying or not, I mean, I would kinda be wary of even saying that on D1, but this is kinda making me think that biology does exist and it includes TJ and Lahilt?

Edited August 12, 2020 by Illwei