Long Game 68: Studies of Ashyn

[Vapor she/her]

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

On this cycle or in general?

This cycle, a bunch of votes piled up on Devotary due to her mistyping "target pool" vs "suspect pool". Then a counter lynch developed on Lotus, until Sart revealed that he'd seen Devotary using a kill action on Gears. So now we're all trying to lynch Devotary. Also, Kasimir can apparently scan who manipulated votes (and is a little irritated that I said he was an information hub) and saw Devotary manipulating the lynch on Pyro.

In general... this is still probably the most impactful thing. If Devotary is good, then Sart's an easy next lynch or night kill. Possibly (but probably not) Kasimir as well.

So vote for Devotary!

This cycle

Sure, that works Devotary

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Sart said:

Was watching Devotary. I saw that they used the Elim Kill. Technically speaking, I didn't see who they visited. I only saw the action they took. 

Interesting confidence. Please don't kill Sart out of hand next cycle.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

1. I claimed my background on D1 already, not my problem if y'all don't read  It also certainly explains what I was doing on D1. I'm also not really sure how you can take a look at the number of secret vote manips in this game and not expect there to be either a Smoker role or some role that lets the Village figure out what's going on.

3. What's the point of keeping it secret anymore? It's not about you. For one, if you really were vote manipulated, which I doubt right now, but if you were, I think it's a safe inference that the vote manipulator is an Eliminator, and a second, weaker inference might be that the Elim team has a vote scanner of their own, or at least, are in some way aware that this is a possibility, such that they felt safe in incriminating you. In which case, revealing doesn't give the Elims more ability info than they already had.

4. Since we're throwing charges of convenience and falsehoods around, you know what's convenient and doesn't seem like it's true?

>About to get lynched because of a scan claim
>Hey I'm an alignment scanner
>Also I have an expiration date, it's N4.

Why wouldn't they? You mean GMs aren't able to class actions differently? Is there a standard way of classifying actions and votes that GMs are not permitted to deviate from that I'm unaware of? The reason this matters actually helps you out, so I'm impressed you're indifferent to it. It's more likely that there is a redirect ability rather than 3-4 different flavours of vote manips, again because of sheer numbers. If votes are classed as actions, a player with a redirect ability could simply hijack your vote too. I was PAFO-ed when asking if role-blockers could stop someone from voting.

Nice attempt to change what I'm arguing, but I'm not biting. My point is that at least two players have given the wrong guess, if you count the person I've PMed, alongside Lotus. And as a player, I certainly would be wary of assuming given it's a blackout game. It's not about whether you should have precisified; it's about the fact that you got on it directly given circumstances that should not have permitted you to do so.

I'm happy to agree it's not a deductive argument, and can't therefore insure truth. But in light of:

• You having been scanned as killing Gears
• (or: You having been scanned as targeting Gears, which is still a question in its own right: why Gears of all people?)
• You having actually had your vote on Pyro

Everyone has a background I'm pretty sure, but you're the only one I know of who started with an action relating to that background. Nobody else who said anything about backgrounds sounded like they knew what they did.

That's fair. Knowing what types of vote manipulation are out there will be helpful. It just seemed extraneous because I definitely didn't put my vote on Pyro in any way and I don't know why a vote shifter would have targeted me since they would have no idea where my vote was going to end up.

Not all claims can be plausible sadly. Limited time to live is an unfortunate drawback, but alignment scans are too powerful to be left unchecked and it gives a reason for someone like Silber to use a condition removal power therapeutically instead of offensively.

I've can't remember votes ever being classified as actions that can be roleblocked or redirected. That's always been what rioters and soothers are for. I can't see why it would be specified that we get one action in the day and one at night, and then have votes be secretly classified as actions except they don't take up the action slot.

It's not my fault that the simplest and most likely explanation happened to be correct.

Gears hadn't gotten a lot of attention but was involved enough that either alignment result would be useful.

[Ashbringer he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

You're lucky I checked the cycle before going to bed. I can't scan who manipulated votes. I can scan a person who got voted on and see who actually voted on them. This is why I can only tell you who voted on Pyro in the final count, not what their abilities were, or what sort of manipulation put Devotary's vote and Lotus's vote on Pyro. In addition, I can use this ability either during the Day or during the Night, but I am restricted to using it once per cycle and only to the previous lynch. E.g. I am no longer able to scan anyone from the D1 lynch, but I am able to scan the D2 lynch this cycle, and have been considering sending in an order to scan the votes on Lotus instead. (Once D3 ends and night falls, I will only be able to scan the D3 lynch, so if I judge it's best to scan Lotus, I should scan the Lotus lynch rn.)

Oh. I think that’s what I meant, but that makes it clearer.

Also, I think that there won’t be much vote manip this cycle. If everyone votes on Devotary, vote manip should be ineffective. Although probably more telling than anything from Lotus will show... I’m not sure. Any vote manip on Devotary should be scanned ASAP assuming she’s Elim.

[Mint11 she/her]

The kill

Mint was working on labeling samples when she heard the shouting. It was late and most of the others were in bed. Dr.Gears, as it turned out, was dead. There was a lot of blood. But no one knew whose it was.

Vote manip commentary

Mint was *tired*. Her fellow interns were worse than she realized. She'd eagerly take whatever work the supervisors gave her, but she wasn't about to start traveling in groups of three, as if her colleagues who had been so fickle to their work could be relied on in a fight. Even when it came to deciding which one to kick off the project, a struggle in and of itself, something was always... off. Somehow the counts got muddled up between the voting and the tallying of votes.

Even Mint could understand manipulating the votes for the sake of self-preservation (it seemed that these slackers were much more interested in sticking around now that the samples started giving off strange side effects). But she couldn't accept others doing it anymore. There was so much manipulation that it made figuring out who to trust almost impossible. Votes were a sure way for them to find the saboteurs. People could say and do a lot of things but who they opted to kick out of the project was the true test. They couldn't take it back. But alas, that didn't seem to be true. They *could* take it back. They could say whatever they wanted, vote on whoever they wanted, and when the night came, they could steal back their vote somehow and come for the kill. It was a facade that only dropped when no one was watching.

She knew that some might point fingers at her for changing her stance but so be it. What was research and science, if not simply changing your mind in the light of new evidence? The strange vote counts, Mint realized, couldn't be ignored. A single anomaly for a single vote, yes. But this? This wouldn't do. 

Mint mused that she might even start voting on anyone who was caught in messing with the tally going forward.

The Devotary lynch

Now a number of interns seemed ready to kick Liba [Devotary] off the project. As eloquent as Maris [Kas] was, Mint didn't think his reasoning was particularly damning. She wasn't compelled to join those pointing their fingers at Liba, at least until Thomas revealed that he had followed Liba last night and saw her kill Dr.Gears. Now Maris claimed that staked out Liba's room last night as well. Part of her was worried that Liba was being unfairly accused, that it was all a coincidence, but in a way, Mint was also relieved. There couldn't be enough manipulation to undo Liba being kicked off now, not with so many speaking out against her.

 

---

I love analysis in RP but I know it can be hard to follow, so I tried to make this easier to read.

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Devotary's argument wasn't bad, but I don't want to be singled out as the sole person to switch off if she flips elim

Valid but I'd encourage you to not let this influence your voting (I know it's not your only reason for keeping your vote on Devotary but just wanted to point that out).

I know I should post some reads and I will... try to get on that. Gears was my strongest suspicion reading through old threads so uh, I'll get back to you. I have a village read on Kas but my level of trust has risen to the point where I'm maybe suspicious again?  It's probably just some healthy paranoia.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

6 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Also, I think that there won’t be much vote manip this cycle. If everyone votes on Devotary, vote manip should be ineffective. Although probably more telling than anything from Lotus will show... I’m not sure. Any vote manip on Devotary should be scanned ASAP assuming she’s Elim.

This cycle probably won't have meaningful vote manipulation. Scanning D2 Lotus votes could find out why there were three people voting on her but only one vote counted. Knowing which two votes were removed might not be super helpful, but it would test Lotus's claim of removing Illwei's vote and it would be interesting if Vapor's vote didn't count after her D1 vote target was also missing a vote. Matrim roleblocker ability doesn't come with auto-vote removal, so his vote being missing would suggest a rogue vote manip, likely a tension user who's vote ended up not moving. Not having productive vote manipulation this cycle might make it more scan worthy though, since it could catch drawback vote manipulation like 'using this ability means your vote doesn't count'.

[Ashbringer he/him]

@Araris Valerian, you have not yet voted on Devotary or commented on the day's proceedings. There's about 45 minutes before rollover, and the more solid this lynch the better.

@Lahilt, you have not commented at all this turn (as far as I can see?). Any thoughts?

Edit: I don't know if deleting an @ gets rid of the notification, but sorry Striker!...

Edited August 11, 2020 by Ashbringer

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

@StrikerEZ, @Araris Valerian, you have not yet voted on Devotary or commented on the day's proceedings. There's about 45 minutes before rollover, and the more solid this lynch the better.

@Lahilt, you have not commented at all this turn (as far as I can see?). Any thoughts?

Well, Striker is actually voting on Devotary. According to my personal count, he was the 4th one to do so.

Also, Devotary currently has 11 votes to the one I have from Araris, so I don't think we have to worry about anyone messing with the lynch too much  

[Lahilt he/him]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

@StrikerEZ, @Araris Valerian, you have not yet voted on Devotary or commented on the day's proceedings. There's about 45 minutes before rollover, and the more solid this lynch the better.

@Lahilt, you have not commented at all this turn (as far as I can see?). Any thoughts?

Devotary  

aye, I had a busy weekend. I will try to get out some analysis.

[Ashbringer he/him]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Well, Striker is actually voting on Devotary. According to my personal count, he was the 4th one to do so.

Also, Devotary currently has 11 votes to the one I have from Araris, so I don't think we have to worry about anyone messing with the lynch too much  

1 minute ago, Lahilt said:

Devotary  

aye, I had a busy weekend. I will try to get out some analysis.

Well... 1 out of 2 ain't bad I guess  Just Araris then.

I like to be sure of things...

[Araris Valerian he/him]

9 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

@Araris Valerian, you have not yet voted on Devotary or commented on the day's proceedings. There's about 45 minutes before rollover, and the more solid this lynch the better.

@Lahilt, you have not commented at all this turn (as far as I can see?). Any thoughts?

Edit: I don't know if deleting an @ gets rid of the notification, but sorry Striker!...

I didn’t see much point in further posts once Sart made his claim.

[Ashbringer he/him]

So you've been aware, but didn't join the voting?

Interesting.

[Elkanah he/him]

The turn is over.

[Elkanah he/him]

From the research journal of Liba:

There are eyes everywhere here. The walls. The Ceiling. This place of science is nothing more than a petri dish. The other interns think we are the ones studying the samples. How naive.

 

Votes:

Devotary (12): Ashbringer, Elandera, Matrim, TJ Shade, Straw, Frozen Mint, Lotus, Illwei, Vapor, Kasimir, Sart, Lahilt, StrikerEZ

Matrim (1): Araris

 

Devotary has been lynched. They were an Infiltrator with a medical background and a condition related to Abrasion - Action: you may move a player's vote to another target, but doing so removes your own vote.

 

Player List

Spoiler

1. Gears - Dr. Gears Medical, No Condition

2. Ashbringer - Faleast

3. The Young Pyromancer Physics, Tension - Action: Remove someone's vote, your vote will be assigned randomly to someone with at least one vote

4 Elandera

5. Matrim's Dice - Farns

6. Araris Valerian - Klumm Z.

7. Lord_Silberfarben - Lord-son-...-Silberfarben History, Progression - Action: Target one player, remove their condition

8. TJ Shade - Kondrea

9. Straw - Straw

10. Mist - Tara night  History, Transformation - Action: kill target player; you die as well

11. Frozen Mint 

12. Lotus - Lucy

13. Illwei 

14. Vapor 

15. Kasimir - Maris Erikell

16. Sart - Thomas

17. Lahilt - T. A. Hill

18. Devotary - Liba Medical, Abrasion - Action: you may move a player's vote to another target, but doing so removes your own vote.

19. StrikerEZ 

The night will end at 8 pm MDT on August 11.

Edited August 11, 2020 by Elkanah

[Illwei]

Okay so they were just completely lying about Transportation but no one called them out? 
Maybe one of the Elims is an allignment scanner (why would that even happen?) , or if there is an allignment scanner they may have confided in Devotary after the Allignment Scanner Debacle of D1?

anyways-

EDIT:

so...three types of vote manips so far confirmed? with abrasion just being a better form of tension

Edited August 11, 2020 by Illwei
wait, matrim, did you change your pfp? or am i going crazy

[Mat he/him]

Phoo. Even with the near-surety of the lynch, that red name is a welcome sight.

It looks like there wasn't any vote manip, which isn't exactly a surprise. Also, Devotary's role is interesting- @Kasimir, while it is vote manip, it wasn't what you were expecting? Looks like a standard Riot action, I believe. Looks like Devotary's claim of alignment scanner was false. Are we assuming that she made up the disease, or that she somehow knew the specifics of it? (Note: Alignment scanners, if you exist, please don't come out and claim to resolve this. That will make you easy NK targets)

Another note: The thread is tagged with 'conditions are intense!'. Ominous. 

[Kasimir he/him]

Hello, my lovelies! I have received a PM from the GM as I sent in an order to check out the D2 Lotus lynch! (My rationale: I might not survive the Night, though would be nice if we have spare protection - however, a second vote scanner has made contact, and if they are Village, this gives me hope )

However, I'm not allowed to share the actual PM, which involves a powerpoint presentation on the lynch. @Elkanah is awesome, and much kudos to them because it was a very beautiful powerpoint.

Your actual results:

Quote

Lotus (1) : Matrim.

@Matrim's Dice: Actually, one possibility I built in was that Devotary knew a double-voter, i.e. someone with that particular Surge, and they were on the same team. But the fact that Devotary's vote appeared, IMO, indicates likely Abrasion action on Devotary, since we know she can't Tension.

Edited August 11, 2020 by Kasimir

[+Lotus she/her]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Hello, my lovelies! I have received a PM from the GM as I sent in an order to check out the D2 Lotus lynch! (My rationale: I might not survive the Night, though would be nice if we have spare protection - however, a second vote scanner has made contact, and if they are Village, this gives me hope )

However, I'm not allowed to share the actual PM, which involves a powerpoint presentation on the lynch. @Elkanah is awesome, and much kudos to them because it was a very beautiful powerpoint.

Your actual results:

 

That’s useful info!

 

After this game is over Id adore to see that beautiful PowerPoint.

 

Im going to analyze Devotary’s reads, however I need to go to bed at the moment.
 

Excuse the formatting, i can’t get out of strike through.

Edited August 11, 2020 by Lotus

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Lotus said:

After the game is over If adore to see that beautiful PowerPoint.

Under Elkanah's very specific instructions, I am actually allowed to share the Powerpoint once the game is over  So let's find the Infiltrators quickly, aight?

[|TJ| he/him]

So Lotus was not exactly covering for Devotary as I theorized. If not, Illwei's vote on Pyro would be visible to Kas. BUT (hold on here some crazy theory about teamwork) Devotary could have made sure that Lotus' reassigned vote properly fell on Pyro! (Ehh, not convincing but still it would be a very cool scenario if they manage to coordinate that) But why was Devotary's vote added? Bah, the simplest answer is we have a null-to-full vote converter.

19 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

It looks like there wasn't any vote manip, which isn't exactly a surprise.

There is one vote missing actually. I'm convinced Vapor Vanish is real. 

[Illwei]

17 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

There is one vote missing actually. I'm convinced Vapor Vanish is real. 

Hah. Vapor Vanish.

Could it be possible that Vapor's votes disappearing activates another ability? I mean I guess that wouldn't make sense as we haven't seem anything (I don't think?) I guess a drawback without a power is possible. I can't help but be worried about some sort of storing thing.

I can help it, and I am no longer worried.

Edited August 11, 2020 by Illwei

[Mat he/him]

13 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

There is one vote missing actually. I'm convinced Vapor Vanish is real. 

 You're right! I just went off my count from my notes, which had 12 votes. Guess I counted wrong...

[Kasimir he/him]

So, an organised info-dump of sorts:

While my policy has never been to solicit claims via PMs, these are the folks who have claimed to me: [Edited to add: Action Scanner #2], Double-Voter #3, Vote Scanner #2, Target Scanner #1, Target Scanner #2, and Thug #1. I have anonymised them because I don't ethically like outing people. I cannot account for any of them being Village [i.e. please be aware my informants may not be reliable, or may have ulterior motives to mislead], though I do believe some of them to be Villagers.

With that in mind:

• Double-Voter #3 did not use their double-vote on the Devotary lynch as they forgot to put in their order.
   
• Target Scanner #2 scanned Araris and found that Araris targeted me last night. This is especially interesting because I lost my double vote, i.e. I am perfectly healthy again  but chose not to bring it up last cycle in light of Araris's interesting behaviour of crediting one vote to me in his vote tally, which seemed to indicate awareness of my situation. Unless we postulate more Silbers, it seems to be the case that Araris has been a very, very busy boy indeed... and likely visited TJ as well the night before. The really interesting question is how Village it is to remove a role-block from TJ 
   
• Thug #1 mentioned wanting to get their situation out because they don't want to be side-eyed by the Village if their vote doesn't count. Their ability is conditional (so probably a Surge) - they have an extra life and will survive one attack, but after surviving the attack, their vote no longer counts. Sounds a bit like the Vapor Vanish to me. @Vapor, were you attacked, by any chance?

Merry Kasmas, and to all a good night!

Edited to add: Right, sorry folks, alles klar now, there was a confusion and a communication error and much misunderstandings. There is a condition which means your votes don't count, period. Likely Vapor has it too.

Edited to add #2: @Elkanah - interesting puzzle for you  Suppose a user of Abrasion did not vote. Further suppose said player used Abrasion to shift their vote onto Pyro. What would happen? Would Abrasion nullify their vote? Or would this be a way of bypassing the nullification associated with using Abrasion?

Edited August 11, 2020 by Kasimir

[Elandera she/her]

9 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

There is one vote missing actually. I'm convinced Vapor Vanish is real. 

There are a few votes missing, if we consider that at least one person on that list used a double vote ability. But if what Kas said is true about a vote not counting, that's not really surprising.

[|TJ| he/him]

8 minutes ago, Elandera said:

There are a few votes missing, if we consider that at least one person on that list used a double vote ability. But if what Kas said is true about a vote not counting, that's not really surprising.

Hmm, we know 3 double voters. Kas claims to have lost his power:

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

This is especially interesting because I lost my double vote

He also claims Double-Voter #3 forgot to use their double vote: 

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Double-Voter #3 did not use their double-vote on the Devotary lynch as they forgot to put in their order.

The remaining double-voter is @Illwei. Can you confirm if you used double-vote?

Also, I don't find any reasons for Abrasionists to remove vote off a 10+ lynch vote because a) it's pointless and b. it will make them look suspicious if they are found to be manipulation the vote. 

[Elandera she/her]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

There is a condition which means your votes don't count, period.

Oh, I had a thought. If there's an elim with this ability, distancing and "bussing" votes are highly probable to make it look like there are more votes and lure village into complacency.