Long Game 68: Studies of Ashyn

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

No last minute vote this time? Aren't you a fan of them? What's changed?

It was :57 and I still hadn't figured out whether to vote for Pyro or Lotus, so I gave up and decided to see if Illwei would use their double vote to decide the outcome. I didn't notice Illwei saying they wouldn't double vote until the cycle closed.

39 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

And I'm trying to verify if people are telling the truth are not. And even confirming their role is not alignment-indicative (as Elkanah rule earlier). It's in no way similar to asking the name of the village alignment. The minute he mentioned lesions, the only thing that came in my mind was "okay he knows role-blocks are a result of lesions", and I felt that I had to convey that to the thread. I felt that post was odd.

It's not game breaking like alignment information, but it's still using specific wording from GM PMs to prove claims, and I wasn't sure if that was allowed. As it turns out, it is acceptable to share that sort of information.

[Kasimir]

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I was going to say that I disagree and that I fit this profile while being rather prolific in my last elim game, and then realized that most of the rest of my team could have been described as peripheral.

I’ll try and do a somewhat comprehensive analysis post tomorrow, off to bed for now.

Yeah. I really think there's a more fine-grained way to do it. The correct way is to do it by player since teams do not have themselves their own strategic priorities, and the thing is that each team will have an amalgamation of profile types—it's not really possible to immediately identify which profiles are present but their selection of the kill target gives us some idea of which profiles are dominant on the team. As usual, given the way this game has been proceeding, I find myself compelled to spell out that it is not a smoking gun, just another source of data. 

I hesitate to say this but I do know some players were taking a Big Data style approach to identifying players' Elim profiles. That would be the natural culmination of what I'm talking about. Also I might not define prolific the same way, so I'm not sure there's a disagreement here  As Elk probably remembers. 

3 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

It was :57 and I still hadn't figured out whether to vote for Pyro or Lotus, so I gave up and decided to see if Illwei would use their double vote to decide the outcome. I didn't notice Illwei saying they wouldn't double vote until the cycle closed.

Given the double vote is secretly cast, how would you expect to know if Illwei would or would not use it? 

I think I'll phrase my accusations a bit sharper, and that's that I think you're playing peripherally enough to fit the profile. I feel as though your withholding from your usual unconcerned late voting is a symptom of this shift and I think this is enough of a deviation from what I saw of you in the QF (the Dark Knight the Korathi deserved and needed) that I'm suspicious about it. I put pressure on Lahilt for this last cycle. This cycle, it's you. 

[Mat]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Matrim's Dice, who did you target? (Note: It's interesting the Eliminators went for Gears instead.)

I targeted @StrikerEZ, and was told it was successful. Striker, can you verify? Assuming you have an action, which isn't a given.

Edit: Gears actually PM'd me D1, after I said I can't talk in PM's, saying that he had a disease that made it so his posts can't be longer than 250 words. Later, he put out a reads list that was significantly longer than that, so I was... skeptical. Now he died, and has no condition. I'm wondering if he was healed, or if he just made up a condition, similar to his 'claiming elim' test.

In the PM he also told me that he told someone else his disease in a PM, and that he thought they were an elim, but he didn't tell me who it was. So that's something I'm also wondering. 

Edited August 9, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[|TJ|]

24 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Gears actually PM'd me D1, after I said I can't talk in PM's, saying that he had a disease that made it so his posts can't be longer than 250 words. Later, he put out a reads list that was significantly longer than that, so I was... skeptical. Now he died, and has no condition. I'm wondering if he was healed, or if he just made up a condition, similar to his 'claiming elim' test.

In the PM he also told me that he told someone else his disease in a PM, and that he thought they were an elim, but he didn't tell me who it was. So that's something I'm also wondering. 

This was the exact same thing he did with me. Apparently he was suspecting one of us to be elims because of the back-to-back disease claims. After I got back PMs, I PMd him stating I suspected him because if he was a villager with disease, why would he think/theorize that the game was a conversion one (with the elims being diseased trying to convert healthy villagers)? That's when he revealed that he actually did not have a disease and that he lied to me and you. He wanted to see if a lot others acted like he had a disease, in which case either me or you would be elims since we didn't have PMs, the only way we could communicate that info to others would be through an elim doc. 

[Mat]

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

This was the exact same thing he did with me. Apparently he was suspecting one of us to be elims because of the back-to-back disease claims. After I got back PMs, I PMd him stating I suspected him because if he was a villager with disease, why would he think/theorize that the game was a conversion one (with the elims being diseased trying to convert healthy villagers)? That's when he revealed that he actually did not have a disease and that he lied to me and you. He wanted to see if a lot others acted like he had a disease, in which case either me or you would be elims since we didn't have PMs, the only way we could communicate that info to others would be through an elim doc. 

Yeah, I was wondering if you were the other one he told, since we had both claimed to not be able to talk in PM's. Thanks for clearing this up.

[Elkanah]

A thousand apologies everyone! I have reviewed my notes and have realized that I was slightly off on my vote counts for the last day cycle. I will post this in the write up for Day 3 as well, but I wanted to make sure people saw without having to memorize what was already there.

Here is what I put.

Votes

Young Pyromancer (4): Gears, Lotus, Lahilt

Lahilt (3): Kasimir, StrikerEZ

Lotus (2): Matrim, Illwei, Vapor

Mint (2): Sart, Araris

Araris (1): TJ Shade

Sart (1): 

This is correct

Votes

Young Pyromancer (4): Gears, Lotus, Lahilt

Lahilt (3): Kasimir, StrikerEZ

Lotus (1): Matrim, Illwei, Vapor

Mint (2): Sart, Araris

Araris (1): TJ Shade

Sart (1): 

Again, I apologize and invite you to go back to your regularly scheduled mob violence.

[Ashbringer]

So Lotus lost another vote. Interesting. And overkill.

[StrikerEZ]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I targeted @StrikerEZ, and was told it was successful. Striker, can you verify? Assuming you have an action, which isn't a given.

I didn’t take an action last night, so I can’t say whether you actually roleblocked me or not. Sorry.

[Mat]

12 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I didn’t take an action last night, so I can’t say whether you actually roleblocked me or not. Sorry.

Well, that's mildly unfortunate :P. Everyone still will just have to take my word for it... 

[+Lotus]

1 hour ago, Elkanah said:

Lotus (1): Matrim, Illwei, Vapor

Maybe Illwei or Vapor we’re doing vote manip and do their vote got taken off?

Also, this is priceless:

        

1 hour ago, Elkanah said:

Again, I apologize and invite you to go back to your regularly scheduled mob violence.

Edited August 9, 2020 by Lotus

[---]

Okay, so...more vote manips...?

@LotusI already said i didnt use my manip last cycle, as well as my action isnt the same as yours where it removes my vote. 

I would think that matrim is also a possibility unless you cant get two diseases at once, but the writeup implied you could have multiple diseasee. Of course i cant really trust that lol.

 

Edited August 9, 2020 by Illwei

[Kasimir]

6 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Maybe Illwei or Vapor we’re doing vote manip and do their vote got taken off?

Illwei's vote manipulation is incapable of just Soothing a vote like that. Illwei mentioned this on N1 and I can confirm this from having the same condition.

I note that this is the second time @Vapor's vote has vanished from someone she has voted for. Third time lucky?

Edit: What the Kas and the Illwei giveth, they do not taketh away.

Edited August 9, 2020 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer]

Illwei's vote manip lets them do a second vote. It shouldn't ever remove a vote. 

This has to be either a second Tension user (assuming that Lotus self-removed a vote), or a different role entirely.

Edit: I should really pay attention to how many pages there are on the thread.

Edited August 9, 2020 by Ashbringer

[+Lotus]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edit: What the Kas and the Illwei giveth, they do not taketh away.

Good to know.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Given the double vote is secretly cast, how would you expect to know if Illwei would or would not use it? 

I think I'll phrase my accusations a bit sharper, and that's that I think you're playing peripherally enough to fit the profile. I feel as though your withholding from your usual unconcerned late voting is a symptom of this shift and I think this is enough of a deviation from what I saw of you in the QF (the Dark Knight the Korathi deserved and needed) that I'm suspicious about it. I put pressure on Lahilt for this last cycle. This cycle, it's you. 

I was expecting the vote tally would be Lotus(4) Pyro(3) if Illwei used a double vote, and 3-3 if that didn't happen. It turns out there was a lot more vote manipulation out there. Since Illwei specifically denied using vote manipulation and there was one(now two) fewer votes on Lotus than expected, I can be fairly sure a double vote wasn't used.

I don't think I've ever been more than peripheral. I'm not really the type to push original content into the thread or coordinate and make things happen. I tend to mostly respond to what other people have said regardless of alignment. I'm also not sure how my not voting deviates from what you saw in the QF, specifically cycle 2 where I left a tie between Ash and Illwei without voting. That one was a bit different since I checked out an hour before rollover after spending two and a half hours unable to pick a vote target. I'll be sure to vote this cycle.

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I was expecting the vote tally would be Lotus(4) Pyro(3) if Illwei used a double vote, and 3-3 if that didn't happen. It turns out there was a lot more vote manipulation out there. Since Illwei specifically denied using vote manipulation and there was one(now two) fewer votes on Lotus than expected, I can be fairly sure a double vote wasn't used.

I don't think I've ever been more than peripheral. I'm not really the type to push original content into the thread or coordinate and make things happen. I tend to mostly respond to what other people have said regardless of alignment. I'm also not sure how my not voting deviates from what you saw in the QF, specifically cycle 2 where I left a tie between Ash and Illwei without voting. That one was a bit different since I checked out an hour before rollover after spending two and a half hours unable to pick a vote target. I'll be sure to vote this cycle.

Apologies: this one is on me as I misread your statement:

11 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

It was :57 and I still hadn't figured out whether to vote for Pyro or Lotus, so I gave up and decided to see if Illwei would use their double vote to decide the outcome. I didn't notice Illwei saying they wouldn't double vote until the cycle closed.

as saying you wanted to wait and see if the double vote was being used before deciding whether to intervene.

Alright, I need to go and sleep, so cards on the table time. I wanted to hear you claim you didn't vote in any capacity during the last cycle because I actually think you did. I think you have the exact same condition that Illwei and myself and Player #3 do. And I think you used it to secretly and with plausible deniability switch the vote towards Pyro, or away from Lotus. To me, that seems more like Elim behaviour than like Village behaviour. So my votes stay where they are.

Now, why would Kas go and think such a kasyana thing?

#1. Key Moment 1.

Let's go back a bit to Night 1, when the whole lab was a-clamour over what the chull went down with the votes. I myself was puzzled. And then, as I've mentioned before, Illwei confessed that he'd used his ability in a PM with me. I encouraged him to fess up to the town, so near the end of N1, Illwei posted. And here's what he said:

On 8/6/2020 at 9:25 AM, Illwei said:

Sorry, I've had the tabs open, but I've been busy and haven't really had the energy to respond, having just come off a stressful game.

Yes, I'm the one who used the vote manip, letting people discuss it when I could just tell you only helps the elims. I assume I have a counterpart, maybe an elim, because I'm not the one who soothed a vote off of Kas. 

Quickly wanted to ask why this was an important thing after it's pretty obvious that that wasn't a role claim but okay.

I also am suspicious of gears, but I don't really know why. He feels off from the other games i've seen him in, but I can't really say why so...

Emphases mine. Illwei only made three claims: first, he had vote manipulation, second, he was responsible for the added vote on Mist, and third, he wasn't responsible for the missing vote on me.

Here's the thing. What is vote manipulation? Is it, by any chance, "I can choose to double vote on a single target"? What about "I always double vote on a target, whether I want to or not"? Or: "I have an extra vote to use secretly as I like"? How about "I can change anyone's vote to anything else without consequence"? Let's not forget standard Rioting, i.e. "I can change anyone's vote to anything else at the cost of my vote." (The last is unlikely given the context of the votes. The rest are all plausible and would tell us different things about the game role distributions. In fact, in particular, I point out that at that point in time, based off what Illwei said, it is difficult to tell which of these abilities is the vote manipulation he claims to have.

Illwei says nothing further as the Night draws to an end.

#2. Key Moment 2.

On Day #2, given the debate about disease spread, I decide to announce that I have been infected with a disease. In particular, I say:

On 8/7/2020 at 9:46 AM, Kasimir said:

[OOC] I don't have time for a more involved post right now but can in a couple of hours. Several small things that stood out for me:

- Ash, on what basis did you claim to understand Pyro being quiet? 

- I'm going to come out and say that I contracted a disease this morning (er, start D2) and that I was told I know the complete rules pertaining to my disease. It doesn't exclude the idea of stages being separate diseases but I'd like to know why this theory gained traction. ( @Illwei, there you go.)

- I would like to request all people whp have publicly admitted to diseases (yes, you, TJ, Matrim, Illwei, Pyro, myself) declare, if you can, your targets. I understand the need for secrecy but I also think that if we know who targeted whom, we can begin to create a suspect pool for the Eliminator with the night kill. I'll start. I can confirm what Illwei said because I contracted his disease this morning and his descriptions all check out. I can't use this except during Day Cycles. Sart, you claimed to be roleblocked. Who did you target? 

-I'll change my vote when I next get on. 

Edit: exeunt, ninjaed by Gears

I make several key disease-related claims, but they actually don't add anything much to what Illwei was saying at all. I claim that I have contracted the same disease as Illwei and can confirm Illwei's account of his abilities. I claim that I contracted the disease at start-D2, and that I know all the complete rules pertaining to it. I also clarify it can't be used except during Day Cycles [sic; Turns is the right term] though this much should be obvious since it's vote manipulation.

#3. Key Moment 3.

13 minutes later, on Day #2, Devotary posts. Devotary says:

On 8/7/2020 at 9:59 AM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

TJ said Silber removing his disease also took away his ability, and there's no reason that wouldn't be true since diseases give the power and the drawback.

Ashyn's surface was destroyed by the proto-surgebinders, and they built the floating cities to survive. Silence Divine is thousands of years later, when they discover antibiotics that can cure the disease keeping the cities from falling out of the sky. Silber's ability would be an existential threat on Ashyn, but probably not so much in this game. It might mean diseases are more common than they otherwise would be, but I don't think that's incredibly harmful.

Pyro claimed a new action, but it might not be a disease. It would be odd for @The Young Pyromancer to speak about spreading disease as a hypothetical if he had a disease where he didn't at the beginning of the game. Apparently, Kas does have a new disease, so I guess there is spread.

Claim targets the turn after the actions are submitted? I'm not sure this will be incredibly helpful for narrowing the kill target since people with night actions are less likely to submit kills and people with day actions can use them and the elim kill in the same cycle. Is your/Illwei's ability an optional double vote, is that how it works?

Here's what I find interesting. Here's my question. Since neither Illwei nor myself specified exactly how our vote manipulation ability works (see: #1, in which I outline the various ways in which vote manipulation could function consistent with what we know from C1), how is it possible that Devotary can be, all of a sudden, so very specific in identifying the exact ability that Illwei and I have - down to the fact it is optional? This is especially striking - and interesting - in light of the fact that it's D3 and Lotus doesn't seem to get that neither Illwei (nor myself, by extension) can remove votes.

2 hours ago, Lotus said:

Maybe Illwei or Vapor we’re doing vote manip and do their vote got taken off?

(Exhibit A.)

---

Here's what I postulate. I postulate that Devotary did indeed vote, late in the cycle, as she is usually wont to do. I suspect that Devotary cast a secret vote, because she knew that Pyro was innocent. (There's a side-question there to be asked about whether this is saving Lotus, messing with the cycle by implicating Lotus, and so on.) I do think that it is very strange for a Villager to want to use a hidden vote on a player without simply outright voting on them. I would be less suspicious if Devotary had just come out and lit Pyro's name in red.

Then, I went to look at Elim profiling again. The point about peripherality isn't about what it says about your playstyle. The point is that this fits the profile demonstrated so far by our Eliminator team. I take that to be weak reason to look more closely at you. And you're not wrong to say you don't always vote, Devotary, but you do it often enough that it's the part of your playstyle that the sudden refusal to is unusual - and especially in light of your apparent knowledge of what the ability really is, I think you actually did vote. And you voted on Pyro.

tldr; many things do not make sense, I wanted to hold things back a bit and to listen to what Devotary had to say, I'm going to lay my cards on the table now. I'm suspicious of you, for the reasons I've spelled out. Devotary Devotary

Appendix:

For the record, Player #3 claims to not have been in contact with Devotary. Illwei claims to not have said anything about his ability outside of the PM with me, and outside of what has been posted in the thread. So I went back and looked at all of Illwei's D2 posts before Devotary posted (recall that Illwei hasn't posted since his reveal on N1.)

In short, Illwei's first post speculates on Silber's death, his second asks about vote analysis, his third questions Gears about something they said, his fourth talks about his suspicions, his fifth says he doesn't think diseases can spread but that they do have stages, and his sixth points out Araris is weird to vote Mint because he suspects Illwei. Nothing about his disease there.

I certainly didn't PM Devotary about my ability either. So where does this knowledge come from?

Note: I don't believe in grudge voting players. I figured I should just clarify this before someone throws it out there. As far as I'm concerned, it's done and the case has been closed with Elk's clarification and Devotary and I acknowledging framing issues. In this case, it's specifically the line of reasoning that leads me to suspect Devotary.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Emphases mine. Illwei only made three claims: first, he had vote manipulation, second, he was responsible for the added vote on Mist, and third, he wasn't responsible for the missing vote on me.

I can't use this except during Day Cycles.

 "I can choose to double vote on a single target"? What about "I always double vote on a target, whether I want to or not"? Or: "I have an extra vote to use secretly as I like"? How about "I can change anyone's vote to anything else without consequence"? Let's not forget standard Rioting, i.e. "I can change anyone's vote to anything else at the cost of my vote."

I don't have your ability.

Illwei claims the ability to add votes but wasn't the one to remove the vote on you. Since that was the only other visible vote manipulation, I assume Illwei's ability doesn't remove votes. You claim that you can only use this ability during the day, which implies an action, which implies optional.

The last two possibilities are out because both involve removing a vote. The second possibility wouldn't be something you would use. Not necessarily impossible, but less likely. Both the first and third possibilities can be considered an optional double vote. I thought the odds of one of these being true high enough that I guessed optional double vote when I asked.

[Araris Valerian]

Here's a tentative list of reads:

Village:
Lotus
TJ
Kas
Devotary
Striker
Vapor

Elim:
Matrim
Lahilt
Ash
Pyro

Nothing here is really in order of suspicion, more in the order that I found a post that gave me that feel. Matrim is the strongest of my elim reads, but I'd be fairly willing to switch to one of the other three. And of course, some of those reads are due to my guesses of how people with different alignments would react to a blackout game, so I don't expect this to be perfect. I'd also like to ask the 5 people I don't have here, @Sart, @Elandera, @Straw, @Illwei, and @Frozen Mint to get involved in the discussion a bit more, since I currently don't have much of a read on any of you (my lack of read on Illwei/Mint comes after a more close reading of the first couple of turns, whereupon I realized that my suspicions didn't make a ton of sense).

I'd also like to point out that Kas has now voted on Devotary twice this cycle for some reason. 

Edited August 9, 2020 by Araris Valerian
Pyro is dead

[Mat]

(Yes, I changed my profile photo. Might do my display name later. See the poll in my sig for reference.)

So here is my updated reads list:

• Ashbringer- I did originally suspect them, but have changed my mind as I've seen all the votes on them after D1 have been weak. (See Striker below) Slight Village
• Elandera- Welcome! Nothing here yet. Null. 
• Araris Valerian- TJ's reason of suspecting them seemed sound, but my gut says that was a V/V conflict. Mild Village.
• TJ Shade- I keep wanting to change my mind about TJ, and second guessing my reads on him, but that it also what I've done every single time he's been village. Which is every single time, actually. Mild Village. 
• Straw- @Straw can you posts reads or something? You haven't said much. Null. 
• Frozen Mint- @Frozen Mint, what are your reads/suspicions? Null.
• Lotus- I still find Lotus suspicious, but I don't want to tunnel. I've listed my suspicions enough times, I think. Mild Elim but don't want to tunnel.
• Illwei- I don't know what to think about Illwei at this point. He started out very active, but since then has backed off, which is understandable considering the suspicious attention he was gathering. Mostly Null, but a gut Slight Elim 
• Vapor- I wish Vapor would post more stuff, but thus far they seem the same as previous games. There still is little to analyze. Null. 
• Kasimir- Kasimir is actually one of my village reads I'm more sure about at this point. Their posts and analysis just seems... sincere, for lack of a better word. Village.
• Sart- Post count minimal, would like to see more, especially concerning who they roleblocked. @Sart. Null, reserving further judgement until they say their target.
• Lahilt- Similar to Vapor. Null 
• Devotary of Spontaneity- I totally see where Kas is getting at- he has some really good points- but Devotary also makes good points, and tbh they seem relatively similar to the other games I've played with them, down to me not being able to read them very well . Their wall-of-textish analysis posts and voting patterns are all in line from what I would expect from village!Devotary. But in light of Kas's points, and partly that nagging section of my gut, I'll put Null, but leaning on Slight Village.
• StrikerEZ- The reason I roleblocked Striker was because I found their suspicion/voting patterns a bit strange, and was curious to see if they had/used an action. Their level of participation seems more on the level that it was when they were Jeskeri in the QF. Slight Elim.

As I finished this Araris ninja'd me. *Pauses to reload page* Oh, he voted on me. Nice... @Araris Valerian, you said that your reads were mostly based on posts. Can you direct me to the post I made that gave you an elim feel? Hopefully I can clear up any confusion.

[Araris Valerian]

9 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

As I finished this Araris ninja'd me. *Pauses to reload page* Oh, he voted on me. Nice... @Araris Valerian, you said that your reads were mostly based on posts. Can you direct me to the post I made that gave you an elim feel? Hopefully I can clear up any confusion.

There is no confusion, and I'm not particularly interested in any explanations. I'd rather hear other people's suspicions and their reactions to mine.

Also, vote tally:

Devotary (2): Kasimir, TJ Shade
Matrim (1): Araris

[---]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Elim:
Matrim
Lahilt
Ash
Pyro

Pyro is dead.

Also? I need to participate more in discussion? I've been pretty active this game so if your reasoning is because you don't know what to make of my existing posts then that seems like a you problem?

Edited August 9, 2020 by Illwei
I mean kinda a me problem if your lack of reads leads you to read me as Elim :P

[Araris Valerian]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Pyro is dead.

I guess that's proof that my reads aren't 100% accurate .

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Also? I need to participate more in discussion?

You didn't have a vote in by the end of last cycle and you haven't yet voted this cycle. Who are your suspicions? Would you vote on one of them? Who do you trust?

[---]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

I guess that's proof that my reads aren't 100% accurate .

You didn't have a vote in by the end of last cycle and you haven't yet voted this cycle. Who are your suspicions? Would you vote on one of them? Who do you trust?

This cycle is still kinda early...kinda...and I was going to wait and see how people talked and if I wanted to vote on Lotus again. I say "Again" because I in fact voted for lotus last cycle. :). 

[Araris Valerian]

My apologies. For some reason I was looking for a different name when I checked the vote tally. Regardless, it seems like nearly everyone is waiting to see what people say. Somebody has to start. Somebody has to step forward and do what is right, because it is right. If nobody starts, then others cannot follow.

[Ashbringer]

I'll stick a vote on Straw. As far as I can see, Straw is usually never a player to sit back and watch, and yet we haven't seen any reads or signs of activity. 

Another thing is that their one query-type post from D2 was pointed toward Illwei. I'm beginning to think that Gears' death was an attempt to get a mislynch on Illwei (or Lotus perhaps? Those two were Gears' two main talking points D2-N2), and it's a correlation I think is worth pursuing. (That, and I trust Devotary to a point.)

@Straw, anything to contribute?

 

I'm going to (hopefully) be doing some college prep stuff for the next few hours, so I may not post here for a while, but I'll try to update my analysis block before tomorrow's rollover.