Long Game 68: Studies of Ashyn

[Mat he/him]

Here's the promised major post analysis on @Araris Valerian: Bear with me  

Their first post was a vote on Ash, which as a poke vote seemed strange even at the time it happened but now as my trust of Ash has grown so has my distrust of Araris. 

Later D1 he switches from Ash to Mint: (found here)

Quote

Okay, I'm not a fan of the votes on Illwei, because they are entirely for metagame reasons (well, not necessarily all of them, but Straw's was probably prompted by the other votes). I think that's in poor form and also makes the lynch rather useless. So I'm going to switch from Ash to Mist. Alvron, I summon thee! Let the Gods of Luck and Chance decide! 

Here he defends Illwei, making an Illwei/Araris elim team a possibility. At the last minute switches to a villager to save Illwei. Later, they continue to defend Illwei and even go after me a little bit for suggesting I was suspicious of Illwei. 

Here is the next quote I’ll draw attention to, found in D2: 

Quote

Thoughts: I'm still pretty happy to vote for most people. The vote manip last cycle makes me mildly more suspicious of Illwei. Seeing as there are already 3 votes on Pyro, I'll vote for Mint. I agree with Sart about the vote manip comments. I think in a V/E lynch that is close, if the elims have vote manip then they are likely to use it. Perhaps they would in a V/V lynch as well, but I'd say that's less likely. And the chances of a given random person having vote manip that they are able to use D1 to save themselves seems slim to me. 

Here he backs up off his defense of Illwei, but doesn’t act on it, instead voting for Mint with little reason. The tone of this post seems to suggest elim!Illwei, but Araris doesn’t outright say it and doesn’t vote for Illwei either, which I see as contrary to Araris’s normal playstyle. 

Now, in D3, he posts a reads list:

Quote

Here's a tentative list of reads: 

Village: Lotus, TJ, Kas, Devotary, Striker,Vapor 

Elim: Matrim, Lahilt, Ash, Pyro 

Nothing here is really in order of suspicion, more in the order that I found a post that gave me that feel. Matrim is the strongest of my elim reads, but I'd be fairly willing to switch to one of the other three. And of course, some of those reads are due to my guesses of how people with different alignments would react to a blackout game, so I don't expect this to be perfect. I'd also like to ask the 5 people I don't have here, Sart, Elandera, Straw, Illwei and Frozen Mint to get involved in the discussion a bit more, since I currently don't have much of a read on any of you (my lack of read on Illwei/Mint comes after a more close reading of the first couple of turns, whereupon I realized that my suspicions didn't make a ton of sense). 

 Two things of importance happen here: One, he starts his real suspicion on me, a trend that carries throughout the rest of his posts (something that only started after suspicion regarding me had been mentioned by other people) and Two, Illwei for some reason being moved to ‘not enough info to read’ in Araris’s mind, despite having Illwei being the main topic Araris discussed D1 and D2. 

Later, I ask why he’s suspicious of me, and he just flat-out rejects my question. He still hasn’t explained, though told Kas he would get to it. Do tag me if you ever post that, I’d like to know. 

Now his role gets exposed by Kas, and he says he’ll keep using it because: (link)

Quote

I think the powers are of greater potential use to the elims than the village (or at least the vote stuff is), so I plan to cleanse people using my best judgement. 

This is an interesting thought, because so far, we have successfully found 2 people targeting the person who was killed through roles. Theoretically both village roles, and theoretically both catching the killer. The role distribution has been vital for the village’s success so far. Furthermore, I am considering roleblocking you this turn, as I: 1. Don’t want you to heal my roleblock and 2. Don’t want you to target some other poor villager. 

There’s the part where you are the only person to not vote on Devotary, instead going for me again. Apparently I’m the elim’s next mislynch candidate. If Illwei votes on me next cycle, I’ll be even more convinced.  

Finally this cycle, immediately voting on Straw. Nothing much to gain from this, except the stark contrast from the Devotary lynch. 

Now I’d like to point out Straw’s read list: (Spoilered for size) 

Spoiler

Quote

Village: 

TJ Shade - Strongest village read, can't see anything very suspicious. Generally helpful. 

Kasimir - Quote gimmick makes it more difficult to read their earlier posts. Seems to legitimately have village interests in mind with information openness. Has apparently been PMing. Not sure if I like that. I would prefer to have more openness in the thread. 

Matrim's Dice - Has regularly put out analysis that seems to be coming from a good mindset. Specifically hasn't been holding back on giving reads, which I like. They get additional points from me due to their willingness to claim. 

 

Null: 

Ashbringer - Lots of posts, very little I feel strongly about. Suspicions are very similar to mine, which is interesting. Gut village read, possibly due to the previous point. 

Devotary of Spontaneity - Very few analyzable posts. Not sure what's going on with them/Kas. Will have to reread. 

Frozen Mint - Very few analyzable posts. 

Teft/Elandera - No analyzable posts. 

Vapor - Very few analyzable posts. 

Sart - Not very many posts. Village points for vote encouragement, elim points for lack of interaction and jumping on Mint with reasoning I dislike. 

Lahilt - Very few analyzable posts. Still getting an off feel from them. I think their vote on Pyro was odd. 

 

Elim: 

StrikerEZ - As Matrim said, Striker gives me QF46 vibes in this game (lurking at edges). Otherwise, my read of him is just gut. Probably my weakest elim read. 

Araris Valerian - He's objected to Illwei suspicion in ways that I find quite odd (claimed votes on Illwei due to meta, said Illwei vote worse than rand, specifically picked out Illwei from Matrim's reads on D1). Interestingly, voted on Mint due to Illwei connection. Generally odd amount of Illwei connection. 

Illwei - I still think his posts are odd, and he has a kind of nervous energy around him that I very much dislike. I find their D2 reads particularly odd, as they listed no elim reads whatsoever. 

Lotus - Initially completely null reads. Not sure if deliberate null-ness or if they were legitimately feeling that. Lots of filler posts. Ash-Mat-TJ is something of a jump. The more I look through their posts, the more I feel like the filler is deliberate. Vote manipulation is strange as well. 

 

A few things: First, note the elim reads on both Araris and Illwei. If Straw were to die and flip elim, he’d probably expect us to look at his village/null reads. By putting theoretical teammates in his elim section- but not voting on them- creates distancing. Second, he village reads me. I don’t like this, because as I said before if Straw dies and flips elim the village would be more likely to look at his village/null reads, and with the already pressure that exists on me from Araris makes me an easy mislynch. I believe that Straw and Araris are both adding suspicion on me, but through very different methods, thus also creating a distancing. Here Straw also votes Lotus, prompting me to do so as well, something that’s thrown shade on me now, just because I found Devotary’s defense reasonable before Sart claimed. Unfortunate. 

 

What I draw from this: 

1. I find an Araris/Illwei elim team likely 

2. You both are decently likely to be teamed with Straw, through the Straw-Araris connection and then the Araris-Illwei connection. 

3. I am being pushed for the lynch by these two, and it’s catching on.  

 

After all that, now I’ll say that it’s almost excessive  and I probably am tunneling a bit. But after two low-discussion cycles it’s the best lead I got, and I intend to follow it. And I think a worthy 900th post  

Edited August 13, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[|TJ| he/him]

@Kasimir when he starts [OOC]-ing  

Spoiler

 

---

@Matrim's Dice, take that upvote for the Bear pun (I'll just assume that was deliberate). Speaking of puns, I'll be very disappointed if the dead doc is not named 'Dead and Diseased'.  

I'll be honest, Mat. Before that post, I was getting increasing suspicious Araris and you bussing each other, and whoever survives gets a solid village cred. Not sure about that anymore. My main reason to suspect you is that Araris seems to ignore you for his Progression action. I still don't know the reasoning he took off my role-block in N1 (or if he even was the one who took it, as he still hasn't confirmed it). Really don't know why he would remove Kas' double vote as well. But the cycles he goes for other targets, preferring them over you. Even last cycle, he told he forgot, which sounds fishy (of course you claim you would have role-blocked him anyway, but that's another matter). I find no reason why village!Araris would find me and Kas more suspicious than you. And of course, having not stated any suspicious before, he suddenly gets suspicious of you in D3? 

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I probably won't be able to get back to you on this in detail until near the end of the turn or during the night. He had a couple of posts in the first two cycles that were off to me.

First 2 cycles, he says. Why Progress me and Kas over Mat, if he suspected him? And of course it's easy to say "I'll act on my own suspicion and cleanse people who I suspect." without giving any reasoning. 

Mat, I know you can't exactly answer these suspicion because these suspicion are based on Araris' actions. That last post of yours did kinda feel like it's genuine, and not a bus. I do agree about the Illwei-Araris connection. I think at least 2 out of Araris, Illwei and you are elims, but at this moment, if Araris is elim, I'd say you over Illwei.

Edited August 13, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Illwei]

So I'm also suspicious of Araris but @Matrim's Dice correct, me if I'm wrong, but your whole 'Araris analysis post' seems to be dependent on me also being an elim- It seems to be based around the fact that I am already a proven elim like Devotary was last cycle or devotary is now, as they are dead. 

As for the lotus lynch, I was kinda confused by the grounds of Devotary lynch so I continued to vote for lotus who I was still kinda suspicious of for the reasons I've made before. It was kinda going away and I don't really suspect her anymore. 

2 hours ago, Frozen Mint said:

• Illwei: also tentatively defends Devotary (after Sart and Kas claim):

To clarify: I did not mean for that post to be a defense of Devotary, I don't know which part (er, if not all of it) sounds like that, but i wanted to clarify that the "the more people talk about" was referring to people still talking about devotary's defenses or things like that, when we were obviously going to lynch them, so it felt like wasted talking that we could be using (I guess like we kinda are now) talking about other leads. 

Edited August 13, 2020 by Illwei
I'm barely conscious

[Kasimir he/him]

2 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

@Kasimir when he starts [OOC]-ing  

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Hahaha! I'd give you a pro-gamer move meme but I'm too tired, so you get an upvote instead. I'll have you know RPing my concerns/discussion takes effort  Effort I'm too knackered to put in right now, as I just got relieved and am trudging off-shift  And I am just thoroughly sick of connections. 

@Matrim's Dice Hi, I misread, it seems  Just to confirm, you're saying you agree with most of Ash's reads, not Lotus's? Reference here:

On 8/10/2020 at 11:22 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

Basically the same thing I suspected you for earlier, that is posting filler things, not committing to votes, etc, along with sort of fitting the elim profile Kas mentioned. (Assuming I'm remembering that right). The difference between you and Devotary, who have/is now being suspected for those things, is that you both responded, which I take as good cred. You started posting reads- the majority of which I agree with, iirc. Devotary defended themselves multiple times, and while they may not be generally agreed with, they are there, fighting against the peripheral elim profile. That's something I think is good. Additionally, I don't find Kas's reason for voting Devotary as golden as people have made it seem. It's a good point, sure, but not an invaluable one. 

I hate saying I don't have the time to do a proper reads list, but it's true. I will try to do something as a sort of temporary slap-patch, with the caveat I have not been doing detailed reading/analysis and will hopefully be able to come back to it during my lunch break tomorrow.

Reads (Ordered from Most to Least)

Unimpeachable:

Spoiler

• Elkanah: Have you seen this guy's powerpoints? Or vote analysis? Superb and utterly unimpeachable. Absolute trust, 10/10 would get PAFOed again.

Moderately Trust:

Spoiler

• TJ: Relatively early on the Devotary wagon that I believe it is somewhat unlikely for it to be a gambit. (Slightly strengthened by the reveal of Sart to be Village.) [Note: if Straw really is Elim, I'd strengthen my trust read because I believe it unlikely for Elims to be willing to run the same gambit twice.]

Slightly Trust:

Spoiler

• Lotus: I would tentatively place Lotus here if the theory of an alternative lynch is correct. I can't really believe Elims would lie down and take being forked at the lynch without having to propose yet another candidate. I don't care about your playstyle/profile, it's just a strategically awful position to take lying down - (P.S. If Straw is Elim, definitely consider the fact that Straw ignored the Matrim vote and went for Lotus as an alarm flag!) Lotus hasn't really stood out for me in terms of suspicions otherwise, so I take it I need to do closer reading of her posts if/when I have more time.
   
• StrikerEZ: Striker is a bit more tentative, and here's why. People crediting Striker with solidifying the Devotary lynch tend to follow Straw's count, which, interestingly enough, also credits me with just one vote. (Araris, have you been sharing notes? ) But given I indicated I was double-voting on Devotary, the Devotary lynch should have already been at four votes, to Striker's knowledge - him voting too just makes it five votes, which is a significant lead. On the one hand, I tend to credit early voters a bit more than late voters, because late voters could simply be bandwagoning to appear Village, so Striker gets less credit for being the numerically fourth voter. And it was certainly early enough in the cycle that Striker could withdraw. Then again, despite contestation, he did not withdraw, and critically, he voted before Sart's reveal. So I would say I am mixed on Striker, but lean a bit towards a very mild trust.

Meh! (Bad):

This category is basically about as bland as plain chee cheong fun [i.e. rice noodle rolls] without anything. Part of this is on me. But I also take players being in this category as a warning sign, because this means you're starting to slip into the profile.

Spoiler

• Elandera: Game presence not especially substantial enough for me to feel confident making claims. (Partly unavoidable because Teft.) First sign of weak pushback to Straw lynch, but not wrong. Similar weak pushback to Devotary lynch, but also not wrong. As a result, mixed thoughts. Would appreciate a bit more on suspicions.
   
• Lahilt: Definitely partly on me, but he started marginally active, and kind of faded out after the anti-Pyro campaign on D2. [Come to think of it, I do wonder if the Devotary vote on Pyro was due to Lahilt, but this requires us to postulate ever more interactions...] Not really behaving like he was in MR43, but could be a conscious choice, could be accident. Posting on your Araris suspicion is good, but I'm interested in your reasons.
   
• Vapor: Not enough info, period. In general, more suspicions, more anything.
   
• Ash: Technically could be a mild trust, but TJ raised some valid concerns stemming from vote patterns in previous cycles. I don't have the time to deep-read, but suffice to say I would go back and check if/when time permits.
   
• Frozen Mint: I waver about whether she should go into mild trust or otherwise. I worry that my read of her is based on cognitive bias, specifically, anchoring bias. If I ignore D1, I would say I'm neutral on her. I agree with some of her reads, but at least she's sharing reads, thoughts, and suspicions, which is good and helpful.

Seems Suss, Might Lynch Later, IDK:

Spoiler

• Illwei: I go back and forth about Illwei. (At one point, I felt like Illwei should get a category of his own: 'You Spin Me Right Round.') Ultimately - I don't know why he went for Lotus, and I'd like to know. I feel that Illwei asks a lot of questions but doesn't seem engaged with the discussion particularly. That doesn't really read Village to me. (I also know from the QF that one underestimates Illwei at one's peril, so  ) He's been bearish about Devotary several times - including when I mooted in a PM that Devotary might have been involved in a suspicious hidden vote on Pyro to feel Illwei out since I had some concerns. My point is that if you're Village, you should probably have some kind of reaction to that on some level. I think I'd have gotten more reaction out of the Stick. Finally, he's part of the move onto the Lotus counterlynch, which means I automatically ascribe some suspicion.
   
• Matrim: Hello suspicion my old friend, I'm here to talk on you again  Mild suspicion for the Lotus counter-train last cycle, though he was fast enough to shift after Sart's claim. I feel like that shift could go either way: an Elim realising the gig was up and reacting almost immediately before realising there might be questions, or a Villager appropriately recalibrating to new evidence. More mild suspicion for conditionals if Straw is Village, as I think this seems to ignore that Elims are highly likely to hide in the periphery/disengaged side rather than push a bad lynch. (In other words: deliberately ignoring to try to refocus the lynch on active non-peripherals? Possible.)
   
• Straw: I feel like the suspicions on Straw are not terribly decisive. Before Sart claimed action-scanner, that's how I'd read the Devotary lynch too - it's not like there's a decisive, 100% suspicion thing; it's just a 'death of thousand cuts' issue where there's so much unexplained drek I'm fine voting for them. In Straw's case, there's the dispute over the target scan and the Mechanic claim. It's not implausible, but I'm wary of it. And more importantly, Straw more or less ignored the Devotary stuff and went on to vote Lotus and call for an expansion of suspicions. Which...isn't off either, as I've always advocated that the Village should keep their suspicions focused, but alongside non-engagement besides a call for Devotary to put out more reads, it reads more like a taichi/shifting tactic than anything else. Not my top suspicion, but I'll keep my vote where it is.

Nothing Is Certain In This World But They're Likely Evil:

Spoiler

• Araris: I think I've amply made my views on Araris clear by this point  But I'll sum it up: I go back and forth about Araris. I started with a gut distrust because of the Elim profile, and I find that his reasoning for voting Mint because of Illwei is basically fallacious (affirming the consequent), which makes me suspect it's actually a case of motivated reasoning. I notice he's saying roles - especially vote manipulation - is an issue, which, okay, I can actually get on board with that with regard to vote manipulation, but as Wilson said - I do think roles can be helpful to Village. The fact we have a progression user on the loose and he went after me and potentially TJ, a role-blocker, doesn't make me feel any more confident about him. Good point made about why he went after me N2 if Mat is the bigger suspicion  I'd also note that he didn't visit Illwei, and I'd think de-powering a cooperative double-voter (i.e. one actually willing to declare votes to the Village) is less critical than going after someone he has mentioned he suspects as an Elim alongside Mint (especially since on D2, he already voted Mint because of Illwei!). I'd still like to know why he voted Mat on D3 (promissary, I know) and I am suspicious because of how disengaged he was from the D3 lynch, especially early on.
  
  (Also, Mat makes some interesting points on Araris. What's really interesting is that I actually agree with Mat, and he's also a suspect for me! I shall console myself that TJ also makes some points I agree with  )

There we go. 

And finally, for this cycle:

Spoiler

I notice a notification is warning me Illwei posted something but I am too tired for this drek so whatever to the ninja. I'm going to get a super late dinner and crash now since my head is all mush.

Edit: To clear things up, I don't believe everyone in my suspicions list - particularly everyone on the Lotus lynch D3 - is Evil. I think that would be a bad Elim move, to put all their eggs in one basket, and I'm fully expecting at least one Elim in Meh!, and potentially one in higher trust reads. What I am saying is that based on my current state of ignorance, these are where my suspicions lie.

Edited August 13, 2020 by Kasimir

[Araris Valerian he/him]

So, Matrim. The main thing I have against him is that I think his lists of reads are too much on the null/village side of things. Even D1, there are 3 village reads. I would suspect a villager to be suspicious of everyone naturally, while an elim would be comfortable throwing around village reads. The other thing is the attempted lynch on Lotus D3.

I’ll also note that Matrim voted alongside Devotary during D1. I’m not sure that this is meaningful unless Illwei is elim (and it might even be a reason to read Matrim as village, because elims like to keep some distance). Also the fact that Devotary seemed to want Ash lynched D1 is causing me to back off on my elim read on Ash. 

Last, I know I’ve been making a lot of mistakes this game (I twice voted for dead people). So I’m just going to throw it out there that, over the duration of this game, I moved across the country, then moved out of my apartment, had qualifying exams, started classes, and started teaching a class. Under no circumstances should anyone feel bad about lynching me (it might actually be a relief), especially since I have certainly done some things this game that are suspicious. But perhaps consider my posts/actions in light of the above circumstances.

Edit: I do like that Kas gave me my own category in his analysis. Makes a guy feel special .

Edited August 13, 2020 by Araris Valerian

[Mat he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Matrim's Dice Hi, I misread, it seems  Just to confirm, you're saying you agree with most of Ash's reads, not Lotus's? Reference here:

Yes, Ash's reads.

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

So I'm also suspicious of Araris but @Matrim's Dice correct, me if I'm wrong, but your whole 'Araris analysis post' seems to be dependent on me also being an elim- It seems to be based around the fact that I am already a proven elim like Devotary was last cycle or devotary is now, as they are dead.

So... uh... 

Spoiler

I mean, if Araris is an elim, it's very likely that you are too. It is possible only one of you is, though, and if we lynch Araris and he flips village I'd probably still suspect you a little bit, though it would be less likely.

[Illwei]

6 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Also the fact that Devotary seemed to want Ash lynched D1 is causing me to back off on my elim read on Ash. 

Hi, me being kinda nitpicky i guess but what I noticed about that D1 was that Devotary, although having been lurking, only voted on Ash after you took your vote off, and their vote wouldn't hurt Ash

Edited August 13, 2020 by Illwei

[Ashbringer he/him]

*Opens thread*

*Sees own name in previous four posts in said thread*

*Realizes that's not what people are actually talking about*

*Closes thread*

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Hi, me being kinda nitpicky i guess but what I noticed about that D1 was that Devotary, although having been lurking, only voted on Ash after you took your vote off, and their vote wouldn't hurt Ash

That's a good point. However, both of our posts were made in fairly quick succession right before rollover, so It's possible that Devotary didn't take my switch into account when voting Ash.

[Mint11 she/her]

4 hours ago, Illwei said:

To clarify: I did not mean for that post to be a defense of Devotary, I don't know which part (er, if not all of it) sounds like that, but i wanted to clarify that the "the more people talk about" was referring to people still talking about devotary's defenses or things like that, when we were obviously going to lynch them, so it felt like wasted talking that we could be using (I guess like we kinda are now) talking about other leads. 

I absolutely believe that village!Illwei wasn't attempting to to defend Devotary. The problem is I don't know if we're dealing with elim!Illwei or village!Illwei.  Your post isn't proof that you're an elim, it's just a plausible thing for an elim to do.

Based on this thread, it seems very unlikely that Matrim and Araris are both elims which makes me think I should get more elim reads...

If Straw ends up being an elim, I'd also like to add Elandera to my village reads since hesitating against both Straw's and Devotary's lynches seems a bit too on the nose for elim!Elandera.

In the interest of not having a single train, I'd like to propose Matrim as an alternative lynch candidate. Unfortunately this is mostly a gut read, like I've mentioned, but I can't shake the bad feeling I'm getting from him and he's my strongest suspicion (am I more suspicious of him than Straw? hard to say, it's very strange that no one's tried to defend Straw). Even if I'm wrong, how the votes play out will be very useful information to have later, although I have no doubt it's going to cause a lot of suspicion towards me. Hopefully I didn't post this too late for it to make a difference but we've got a few hours left.

Edit: Not sure if I need to do this but Straw

Edited August 13, 2020 by Frozen Mint

[Lahilt he/him]

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

So, Matrim. The main thing I have against him is that I think his lists of reads are too much on the null/village side of things. Even D1, there are 3 village reads. I would suspect a villager to be suspicious of everyone naturally, while an elim would be comfortable throwing around village reads. The other thing is the attempted lynch on Lotus D3.

I’ll also note that Matrim voted alongside Devotary during D1. I’m not sure that this is meaningful unless Illwei is elim (and it might even be a reason to read Matrim as village, because elims like to keep some distance). Also the fact that Devotary seemed to want Ash lynched D1 is causing me to back off on my elim read on Ash. 

Last, I know I’ve been making a lot of mistakes this game (I twice voted for dead people). So I’m just going to throw it out there that, over the duration of this game, I moved across the country, then moved out of my apartment, had qualifying exams, started classes, and started teaching a class. Under no circumstances should anyone feel bad about lynching me (it might actually be a relief), especially since I have certainly done some things this game that are suspicious. But perhaps consider my posts/actions in light of the above circumstances.

Edit: I do like that Kas gave me my own category in his analysis. Makes a guy feel special .

This does make me slightly less suspicious of you, it felt as if you had shallow reasoning on your votes, although I still do think that removing abilities from people that I read village is suspicious, also I am skeptical of progression and medical sharing the same ability. So far no background that I am aware of has the same ability as an illness, 

 

2 hours ago, Frozen Mint said:

I absolutely believe that village!Illwei wasn't attempting to to defend Devotary. The problem is I don't know if we're dealing with elim!Illwei or village!Illwei.  Your post isn't proof that you're an elim, it's just a plausible thing for an elim to do.

Based on this thread, it seems very unlikely that Matrim and Araris are both elims which makes me think I should get more elim reads...

If Straw ends up being an elim, I'd also like to add Elandera to my village reads since hesitating against both Straw's and Devotary's lynches seems a bit too on the nose for elim!Elandera.

In the interest of not having a single train, I'd like to propose Matrim as an alternative lynch candidate. Unfortunately this is mostly a gut read, like I've mentioned, but I can't shake the bad feeling I'm getting from him and he's my strongest suspicion (am I more suspicious of him than Straw? hard to say, it's very strange that no one's tried to defend Straw). Even if I'm wrong, how the votes play out will be very useful information to have later, although I have no doubt it's going to cause a lot of suspicion towards me. Hopefully I didn't post this too late for it to make a difference but we've got a few hours left.

Edit: Not sure if I need to do this but Straw

Hmm,  Voting on a player based on gut read whereas we know that Straw targeted Sart last night. Also the Mechanics background is a bit fishy.

Also as straw has not denied targeting sart it is likely that lotus did indeed see it happen, meaning if Straw flips Village with a Mechanics background Lotus was not lying that they saw it happen, if this is the case Lotus will not be a clear lynch.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Kas, I need some advice. I do have information, which was innocuous on its own but became... relevant. And I with the first-initial thing, I may be in jeopardy anyway. Should I come forward now, or after this lynch, or should I wait until I can surpass the shadow I'm under?

Edit: @Kasimir

Edited August 14, 2020 by Ashbringer

[Mint11 she/her]

43 minutes ago, Lahilt said:

Also as straw has not denied targeting sart it is likely that lotus did indeed see it happen, meaning if Straw flips Village with a Mechanics background Lotus was not lying that they saw it happen, if this is the case Lotus will not be a clear lynch.

The fact that Straw hasn't said more in his defense makes me more uneasy about the lynch, not less.

[Kasimir he/him]

9 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Kas, I need some advice. I do have information, which was innocuous on its own but became... relevant. And I with the first-initial thing, I may be in jeopardy anyway. Should I come forward now, or after this lynch, or should I wait until I can surpass the shadow I'm under?

Edit: @Kasimir

...You may wanna rethink who you're asking, considering I put the 'kas' into 'kayana'  

Depends on how important you judge it. I'm just gonna say that if you think anyone in the Yelling chat was Elim, then there's a chance it's already out of the bag anyway. (I could say the same of certain other people...) Anyway. The thing is, I am about 80% certain the Village has no protection. Sart should not have died, period. If we did, they got role-blocked and didn't want to come forward (understandable, but...) So I don't really know what you mean by surpassing the shadow, but unless someone snaps and gets Lurcher powers, I'm vaguely certain you might have made yourself a target anyway, and the Elim team might have made certain inferences.

I think the question worth asking is: it's under 40 minutes to the cycle ending. Do you think a lynch with nearly a 5-vote plus margin can be turned around in that time? Because I'm assuming that's what you're suggesting: that your info is lynch-affecting. I'm willing to change my vote, but I have just one vote. IDK if we can have a good margin.

Would either Vote Scanner #2 or Vote Scanner #3 mind scanning the D3 Devotary lynch?

Edited August 14, 2020 by Kasimir

[Illwei]

3 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

The fact that Straw hasn't said more in his defense makes me more uneasy about the lynch, not less.

I agree with being a bit uncomfortable that Straw hasn't said more, but I think Lahilt was talking about Straw not denying targeting Sart at all.

[Lahilt he/him]

16 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

...You may wanna rethink who you're asking, considering I put the 'kas' into 'kayana'  

Depends on how important you judge it. I'm just gonna say that if you think anyone in the Yelling chat was Elim, then there's a chance it's already out of the bag anyway. (I could say the same of certain other people...) Anyway. The thing is, I am about 80% certain the Village has no protection. Sart should not have died, period. If we did, they got role-blocked and didn't want to come forward (understandable, but...) So I don't really know what you mean by surpassing the shadow, but unless someone snaps and gets Lurcher powers, I'm vaguely certain you might have made yourself a target anyway, and the Elim team might have made certain inferences.

I think the question worth asking is: it's under 40 minutes to the cycle ending. Do you think a lynch with nearly a 5-vote plus margin can be turned around in that time? Because I'm assuming that's what you're suggesting: that your info is lynch-affecting. I'm willing to change my vote, but I have just one vote. IDK if we can have a good margin.

Would either Vote Scanner #2 or Vote Scanner #3 mind scanning the D3 Devotary lynch?

I can change my vote if it is reasonable and Kas approved.

[Vapor she/her]

Yeah sure Kas

[+Lotus she/her]

30 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Kas, I need some advice. I do have information, which was innocuous on its own but became... relevant. And I with the first-initial thing, I may be in jeopardy anyway. Should I come forward now, or after this lynch, or should I wait until I can surpass the shadow I'm under?

Edit: @Kasimir

The one thing is that if the Elims suspect you know info, they might try to kill you just because of the potential info.

Though I think I’m going to be the one to go.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Lotus said:

The one thing is that if the Elims suspect you know info, they might try to kill you just because of the potential info.

Though I think I’m going to be the one to go.

Like I said. We're a freaking target-rich environment rn.

[Mint11 she/her]

Y'all... I know Kas is as confirmed village as someone could be at this point but that doesn't mean he's always right. His reasoning is good and he's experienced, granted, but please use your own judgments. Also, Kas is likely high on the elims kill list and we need to be able to survive without him. 

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Frozen Mint said:

Y'all... I know Kas is as confirmed village as someone could be at this point but that doesn't mean he's always right. His reasoning is good and he's experienced, granted, but please use your own judgments. Also, Kas is likely high on the elims kill list and we need to be able to survive without him. 

^ This. The Village's best check against blind spots is if everyone applies their own reasoning, or even gut, and discusses. I say this but please, please, someone scan the Devo lynch to figure out why we have the weird vote counts we do  

[Ashbringer he/him]

Hmm. Suddenly I have a lot of power 

It’s not that kind of relevent. In fact, it’s the completely wrong kind of relevent. So I won’t out myself for now (although Striker, Vapor, Mist, Lahilt, and especially Mat can guess part of it already).

I’m... confident. That’s what I’ll say. Also, History.

[|TJ| he/him]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

I’m... confident. That’s what I’ll say. Also, History.

Are you saying that you're Historian? 

[Kasimir he/him]

Storm it. I don't feel good about this and I hate this and I don't trust my own judgement :/ 

[Elkanah he/him]

The turn is closed. 

I apologize now, It's going to be a late one even by my own high standards