Long Game 67: The Road to Urithiru

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Just now, Ventyl said:

 

Are y’all trying to gain my favor so I’ll squire you?  

hardly. making sure you dont squire obvs diagrammatist.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Just now, Gears said:

No. I am simply telling you that if you do not squire someone and die, your role was worthless.

 

Just now, Orlok Tsubodai said:

hardly. making sure you dont squire obvs diagrammatist.

It was supposed to be funny joke... but yeah I get it. I don’t necessarily think Elbereth is elim though.

[Gears]

Just now, Ventyl said:

It was supposed to be funny joke... but yeah I get it. I don’t necessarily think Elbereth is elim though.

The elims know you want to squire Elbereth. She will be their first target.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

3 minutes ago, Gears said:

The elims know you want to squire Elbereth. She will be their first target.

Yet again, a very good point.

[Frozen Mint]

33 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

I was going to Squire you for no other reason than that you were the first to take your vote off me IIRC. And anyone who doesn’t want to kill me is a friend in my book! Not much of a good reason, but I don’t really have any solid village reads right now, and El is the closest one. Also, you’re right, I probably will die this cycle no matter what happens, so maybe I shouldn’t squire. But if anyone wants me dead, considering Gravitation, even if I had a way to survive it wouldn’t matter. Just, I hope I don’t die. I’ll probably put a hold on my Squiring until I know I’m safe.

I'm not sure that making El a prime elim target is a good way to repay her. 

Agree with everyone that you shouldn't have role-claimed but that's somewhat your prerogative. But at the very least, don't announce who you're squiring because then the elims might kill them.

 

Edit: And ninja'd by Gears. Dammit.

Edited July 3, 2020 by Frozen Mint

[---]

33 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

I was going to Squire you for no other reason than that you were the first to take your vote off me IIRC. And anyone who doesn’t want to kill me is a friend in my book! Not much of a good reason, but I don’t really have any solid village reads right now, and El is the closest one. Also, you’re right, I probably will die this cycle no matter what happens, so maybe I shouldn’t squire. But if anyone wants me dead, considering Gravitation, even if I had a way to survive it wouldn’t matter. Just, I hope I don’t die. I’ll probably put a hold on my Squiring until I know I’m safe.

 

To me it seems that having voted on you at all would not rank them high on the list of "does not want me dead"

Considering gravitation?

why would you not squire? are you saying you are going to protect yourself instead of squire..-ing? 

[Mat]

9 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Considering gravitation?

A surge ability, making an action unalterable. Ventyl is saying if the elims have access to that ability it wouldn't matter if he was being protected, because the elims would use Gravitation while killing him, making the protection useless. 

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

I think that if the elims do have Gravitation, it’s in the form of a Windrunner. Also, I thought that just came to me is that it probably wouldn’t be a good idea for any Dustbringers or Skybreakers to Squire, unless you have a really strong read on someone. Giving the elims Division would not be good, but then it could also lead to the death of an elim after they use the extra kill, because they person who Squired them would know who they gave it too. So really, unless you know someone’s been alignment scanned and you trust the person who did the scan, don’t Squire if you’re a Dustbringer/Skybreaker.

[|TJ|]

So I'm starting to get a little worried here guys. 

2 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Wanting your votes to have reasoning is good! But multiple people have had reasoning for their votes, and in my opinion yours have seemed flimsy less in a 'it's D1 I'll take anything' sort of way and more a 'I need to find some excuse for voting' which much more often comes from an eliminator perspective, I think. 

This is known to be from an elim perspective, so why would I do that? I would rather hide among the votes on Striker/Ventyl/Gears, right?

No one is defending me, even subtly, so that should ring some bells. Hypothetically, if I have a role, how many hours before the rollover should I claim to try to dissuade people from a lynch on me? Will claiming dissuade people from a lynch, or should I take the knowledge of that to my grave? I'm trying to walk the line between outright claiming and not saying at all, since people have not at all considered that I could be a KR too. 

Edit: @Straw, could I have a vote count?

Edited July 3, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Magestar]

4 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

I'm trying to walk the line between outright claiming and not saying at all, since people have not at all considered that I could be a KR too. 

Nooo.  No you're not.  You're claiming, or at least pretending to.  And the cycle still has over a half a day left.  This is what made me suspect you this cycle.  You just seem really frantic for some reason, and it's very different to me from how you acted in the previous game I was in with you.

I guess I'd appreciate a second opinion.  Is it just me reading TJ this way?

[|TJ|]

Gahh, I don't know how I'm acting frantic. This is like the third game players have said I give off weird vibes, and I really don't know what to do about it. That half a day is when people are usually inactive, so I asked in advance what to do. I understand that claiming would only increase my suspicion as people may see it as an attempt to slip out of the lynch, but I can't really keep quiet if I am one, can I? That's why I don't know what to do. 

[Gears]

13 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Nooo.  No you're not.  You're claiming, or at least pretending to.  And the cycle still has over a half a day left.  This is what made me suspect you this cycle.  You just seem really frantic for some reason, and it's very different to me from how you acted in the previous game I was in with you.

I guess I'd appreciate a second opinion.  Is it just me reading TJ this way?

From what I remember of QF45, TJ was far less uncertain. 

[Mat]

This is my final post for the cycle, just a heads up.

I personally do not want a TJ lynch, at least not this cycle. I have a good gut village read coming from his latest post, so I'll answer the call to defend, however controversial. :/

1 minute ago, Magestar said:

You're claiming, or at least pretending to

Could someone point me to where this is? I don't see where this is. (Actually, don't bother xD I won't see it.)

I would say pre-up for lynch TJ seemed normal. Post-up for lynch TJ is different, but he hasn't really been in this scenario before, unless you count the QF, and he was sort of frantic there as well.

Now, you ask, what about my vote?

I won't put it on TJ, or Ventyl. Those two I think it would be in our best interest to lynch later. I would rather lynch TJ today, as we would glean pretty good info from that, but I'd rather save that until later. This makes a difficult decision for me, as surely I'll receive some critique wherever it goes. But it'll probably be more if I don't vote, so I will try to think this through.

How unprofessional is an elim read on someone because they have an elim read on someone you have a village read on? :P. Probably not the best reasoning. But I digress.

StrikerEZ keeps ringing the bells for me. Their vote on Gears is weird, and I've read Gears as mild village. I would rather lynch Striker over TJ or Ventyl atm.

I don't know, guys. I pretty much suck at D1 . I try, though.

Reads:

Mild Elim: Striker

VERY Mild Elim: Orlok, Devotary

Mild(ish) Village: Elbereth, Sart, Magestar, Mint, Gears

Mild Village: Kynedath

Null: Everyone else  

Have a good cycle end, guys, I'll rejoin in about 24 hours if I can. Good luck deciding on a lynch .

[Ashbringer]

27 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

So I'm starting to get a little worried here guys. 

This is known to be from an elim perspective, so why would I do that? I would rather hide among the votes on Striker/Ventyl/Gears, right?

No one is defending me, even subtly, so that should ring some bells. Hypothetically, if I have a role, how many hours before the rollover should I claim to try to dissuade people from a lynch on me? Will claiming dissuade people from a lynch, or should I take the knowledge of that to my grave? I'm trying to walk the line between outright claiming and not saying at all, since people have not at all considered that I could be a KR too. 

Edit: @Straw, could I have a vote count?

Elim team TJ/Striker/Ventyl/Gears confirmed. You heard it here first!

...

On a more serious note, I’M trying to subtly defend you by saying that I don’t think a tinfoil suspicion is that suspicious. That being said, I agree with Mage that you do seem more panicked than before. I mean, last LG you were the Coinshot of all things and you didn’t panic like this.

I think, for now, we shouldn’t lynch TJ for this. But I’m wary, and we only have so many scans we can use.

As for roleclaiming, we can’t just back off every lynch because we’re scared of hitting a claimed Radiant. For one thing, it becomes an easy escape, and clues in Elims to who may actually be a Village Radiant.

Edit: T-T-T-TRIPLE ninja’d 

Edited July 3, 2020 by Ashbringer

[Gears]

People I am willing to lynch this cycle: Striker, TJ. I do not think the Striker lynch is going anywhere, but I'm going to sleep now, so we'll see in the morning. I'll be on before rollover, and I will vote then.

[Elbereth]

17 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

I think that if the elims do have Gravitation, it’s in the form of a Windrunner. Also, I thought that just came to me is that it probably wouldn’t be a good idea for any Dustbringers or Skybreakers to Squire, unless you have a really strong read on someone. Giving the elims Division would not be good, but then it could also lead to the death of an elim after they use the extra kill, because they person who Squired them would know who they gave it too. So really, unless you know someone’s been alignment scanned and you trust the person who did the scan, don’t Squire if you’re a Dustbringer/Skybreaker.

What does the bolded part mean, I’m confused. 

12 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

This is known to be from an elim perspective, so why would I do that? I would rather hide among the votes on Striker/Ventyl/Gears, right?

No one is defending me, even subtly, so that should ring some bells. Hypothetically, if I have a role, how many hours before the rollover should I claim to try to dissuade people from a lynch on me? Will claiming dissuade people from a lynch, or should I take the knowledge of that to my grave? I'm trying to walk the line between outright claiming and not saying at all, since people have not at all considered that I could be a KR too. 

Edit: @Straw, could I have a vote count?

That argument doesn’t really... work? It’s not that elims don’t try to make votes look as reasoned and villagery as possible. It’s just that when you know everyone’s alignment, finding things to be suspicious of is much, much harder. And so their reasoning is often more flawed or flimsy. And sure, you could’ve hidden in those votes. I don’t think it’s particularly alignment indicative that you chose not to, personally - you want to show (regardless of your alignment) that you’re active and trying to solve the game and cause discussion. And you could argue that “hey it’s just D1, everyone has shoddy reasoning”. And that’s not wrong (including my own reasoning; I wouldn’t lynch you for this if we were four cycles in! ), but I think that your reasoning in particular is suspicious in a way most others’ aren’t. (I would compare it to Striker’s, I think, in that your suspicions seem to be for things that seem completely NAI to me. But with Striker that’s a consistent pattern for me D1, which isn’t the case at present with you.) 

Mm. Orlok is, I think, and everyone else is just... carefully avoiding the topic, for the last couple pages. I’m not sure what I think of that yet. (fake edit: also Matrim and Ash, apparently )
A claim wouldn’t necessarily dissuade me, though - Ventyl isn’t my strongest village read just because he claimed. It’s the way he claimed that’s important. 
That said, if I have time tonight I’m going to go back through the QF and look at your behavior that D1, I think - it’s certainly possible that this is just your meta. But in the absence of that knowledge, your behavior feels suspicious to me. 

*reloads page* *sighs*

I can’t convey how uninterested I am in a Striker lynch today. His D1 is always like this. Lynch him tomorrow, fine, I don’t care, but of all the people up for the vote at the moment he’s... well, I guess he’s the one I’d second least want to see gone, after Ventyl. Can we not? 
 

That last post of Matrim’s reads a little more villagey, btw. 

[The Young Pyromancer]

Re: Ventyl, scanning them is actually not very smart, since the elims can probably figure you out if you push their lynch/innocence suddenly. It'd be much better to scan someone else, then PM them when they're up.

Also, Orlok, wilson didn't include apostrophes, which you have done several times. So yeah, you've most definitely failed

 

[theTruthshaper]

Well, I am finally up. Why does all the discussion happen while I am asleep?

@Straw can we get a vote count?

I will be reread the thread to understand what all is going on, meanwhile:

TJ Shade: I don't think they are suspicious enough to lynch D1? As far as I remember, even when they had become a viable lynch target in in QF, they did seem to be panicked if I remember correctly. However, to be fair, the suspicion towards Ash feels very tinfoil-y, TJ Shade, I don't understand why you felt that an elim would be more likely to put the -ish?

Ventyl: Everybody seems to be suspicious of them. This is fair with the roleclaim, The plan is to let them make a Squire, and then kill them tomorrow. I like this plan. Worst case scenario is that we lose a village!Radiant and while the elims gain a Squire. 

[Elbereth]

Hm. I’ve now gone through the first cycle and a bit of the last QF, looking particularly at TJ, Ash, Gears, Matrim, and Eternum. (and then read back through the last four pages of this thread for comparison) Nothing in what Ash, Matrim, or Gears said really changed my read; I’m a little more confident in my village read of Eternum now (he feels very different than in the QF, especially in terms of his thought progression on Ventyl).

And TJ... mm. I get a very different vibe from him in that game vs this one - and I did take notes a week or so ago on the first two cycles of the QF (without knowing most alignments), so I can say with certainty that nothing he posted then made me think he was evil. I really liked his tone that game, in fact, and I feel pretty strongly that it’s changed this game. Much more putting shade on people, many fewer reads, and there were several moments in the QF when I went “oh, he said what I was thinking!” which I tend to think of as very villagery. That hasn’t happened at all this game. 

There are several possible reasons for that  tone change, of course, but a strong contender is certainly that his alignment has changed, which is enough to satisfy me D1. I’d also like to point out this particular post from the QF: 

On 6/21/2020 at 0:16 PM, TJ Shade said:

Actually, going along other player's analysis is NAI for Pyro (from what I've seen so far). I'm not happy because the players are voting for him simply because he added to the train. Elim bandwagoning would be too easy to catch isn't it? Doubt an elim would try that in the first cycle when they can go under the radar by voting for someone with much less number of votes. I'd still look for a better alternative. 

That’s basically the exact opposite of his current argument of “wouldn’t I have hidden in the votes already there instead of bandwagoning?”. What changed? 

@TJ Shade, if you want things to respond to, here are some questions: 
Do you think there are any elims currently voting on you? Who do you think is most likely to be one? 
There have been several vote trains at this point. Look beyond your own survival - analyze those! If anyone who’s had more than 2 votes this cycle is evil, who do you think it is? What movements on or off of wagons have you felt were especially suspicious?
There’s only so far you can get in defending yourself. It’s much more useful to get your reads out there and do your analysis, and let people use that to judge your alignment. (That’s why I’m pretty much ignoring Orlok’s suspicion, by the way - can’t defend unless he gives reasons, and all he’s said so far is that I’m trying too hard. Which I’m not going to stop doing, so hopefully it’s just eventually clear that I’m probably village, and until then there’s not much point in focusing on it.) 

[Ashbringer]

Okay, here’s an attempt to do analysis on mobile. I’ve done TJ as events progressed, leaving me with a slight Elim read from reactions, but not really enough to commit to a vote.

Gears: Started with a bunch of role analysis, acts very formal and bounces theories around with people. Has evidently scared Xino out of posting. I don’t really see anything that differs from the QF widely - and even there, our Elim team was scared enough to post a kill C3. Verdict: Slight Village lean. I think that’s just what Gears would do in any circumstance.

Elbereth: The first to vote, on TJ. I was considering pointing this out as a possible distancing technique, but with Elbereth’s non-poke stance and TJ still being the main lynch candidate, I don’t think that’s terribly likely. Didn’t want to poke vote but changes votes wildly (my guess is just going off whatever gut read is stronger?). Doesn’t give much value to Village protector roles. Analysis: Null, meaning her playstyle irks me but I’m fairly certain that’s just her playstyle. It’s my first game with her.

Ventyl: So, I don’t want to kill Ventyl on shoddy reasoning for a second (third?) time, whether justified or not. First post puts a poke vote on Joe, and advises caution to protecting roles and Abrasion users (possibly an Edgedancer?). Reacted quickly to votes on him, asking for reasons. Teased and confirmed his Radiance, said he’d squire Elbereth to confirm. Analysis: Slight Elim Lean, but I’d rather wait and see.

Haven’t seen any other red flags, but I’ll try to flesh this out a bit tomorrow.

[Zillah]

Day one isn’t my strong suit - so here I am just checking in. As per usual, I don’t plan on voting D1. However I would like to do my best to vote more often than I normally am. I’m on mobile right now as well which makes reading all this a lot harder. Should be back for better stuff once cycle two comes along. 

 

“Unbelievable!” Tasse thought to herself “I’m going to be stuck next to this absolutely dreadful plate for this whole trip! How could they do this to me?!” She laughed silently to herself as the bag she was on got shifted and the plate groaned. “I hope you break!” she said somewhat snarkily. Tasse hated plates. Detested them. They had even less class than forks, and that was an accomplishment! Spending all day muttering “I am a plate” like it was some kind of ridiculous accomplishment! They were nothing compared to her smooth ceramic figure, with a gorgeous dainty handle that had a little swirl on the bottom. she was a work or art, a gorgeous mug! 

The bag began to jostle, startling her out of her thoughts and indicating the start of their journey. “This,” she muttered grimly as she was pushed against the plate, “is going to be one long day.”

Edited July 3, 2020 by Zillah

[Elbereth]

12 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Okay, here’s an attempt to do analysis on mobile. I’ve done TJ as events progressed, leaving me with a slight Elim read from reactions, but not really enough to commit to a vote.

Gears: Started with a bunch of role analysis, acts very formal and bounces theories around with people. Has evidently scared Xino out of posting. I don’t really see anything that differs from the QF widely - and even there, our Elim team was scared enough to post a kill C3. Verdict: Slight Village lean. I think that’s just what Gears would do in any circumstance.

Elbereth: The first to vote, on TJ. I was considering pointing this out as a possible distancing technique, but with Elbereth’s non-poke stance and TJ still being the main lynch candidate, I don’t think that’s terribly likely. Didn’t want to poke vote but changes votes wildly (my guess is just going off whatever gut read is stronger?). Doesn’t give much value to Village protector roles. Analysis: Null, meaning her playstyle irks me but I’m fairly certain that’s just her playstyle. It’s my first game with her.

Ventyl: So, I don’t want to kill Ventyl on shoddy reasoning for a second (third?) time, whether justified or not. First post puts a poke vote on Joe, and advises caution to protecting roles and Abrasion users (possibly an Edgedancer?). Reacted quickly to votes on him, asking for reasons. Teased and confirmed his Radiance, said he’d squire Elbereth to confirm. Analysis: Slight Elim Lean, but I’d rather wait and see.

Haven’t seen any other red flags, but I’ll try to flesh this out a bit tomorrow.

First off, I'm sorry my playstyle irks you - I do try to pressure people and cause discussion, but try my best to do so in a way that isn't annoying or bothersome. If you have any specific things that you don't like or suggestions for me, please let me know. (that applies to anyone; I really enjoy this playstyle but it is relatively new to me and if it's problematic for people I want to fix that) (also I just came off of the MU championships game, and it's entirely possible I picked up some habits/aggression there without really realizing. I'll try to be careful about that going forward)

I've changed my votes more than most, but I wouldn't characterize it as wildly - though it is worth noting I generally don't like not having a vote placed somewhere. I voted TJ to get discussion going, and changed off him as soon as I had an actual suspect - Ventyl, for talking about whether posts were role-indicative. He then claimed in a way I felt was extremely villagery, so I took my vote off of him and instead put it on Matrim, whose response to Ventyl's claim read as off to me. That stayed for quite a while, and then sometime earlier today I moved to TJ because my vote on Matrim wasn't going anywhere and I wanted to see what would happen if I pushed someone out of the 2-2-2-2(?) tie. I've also done my best to explain all my votes except the first, so I wouldn't call them gut reads. 

I think your read on Gears is very solidly reasoned - basically 'mild village because no red flags + very like the last QF, in which he was good'. Could you explain your reasoning a bit more on Ventyl? That is - you give him a slight elim lean, but I don't know what in your summary inclines you towards that. As opposed to the 'read because X' that's so clear with the Gears analysis, your read on Ventyl seems to be a very separated 'facts' 'read', if that makes sense. Is it his reaction to the votes on him? Is it his claim? Just gut / tone? 

[Araris Valerian]

I'm questioning my ability to wake up in time for rollover, and I'm too tired right now to do any analysis (but it's just D1, so that's fine). I'll move my vote from Devotary to TJ Shade like I said I would earlier.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Hello again, I just started my eight hour graveyard shift, so I'll be reading through the previous 9 pages of game finally so that I can start participating. I can see from this page that TJ is considered a bit suspicous, so I'll pay extra attention to their posts. Anything else I should be watching for?

[|TJ|]

Shard just ate my long post, great. 

8 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

That being said, I agree with Mage that you do seem more panicked than before. I mean, last LG you were the Coinshot of all things and you didn’t panic like this.

I wasn't up for a D1 lynch though? I wasn't a main lynch candidate in any cycles. I was voted on by Drake, and I defended myself. I was heavily suspected in dead doc. 

7 hours ago, Elbereth said:

(I would compare it to Striker’s, I think, in that your suspicions seem to be for things that seem completely NAI to me. But with Striker that’s a consistent pattern for me D1, which isn’t the case at present with you.) 

It indeed is becoming a pattern apparently. 

7 hours ago, Elbereth said:

I’d also like to point out this particular post from the QF: 

On 6/22/2020 at 0:46 AM, TJ Shade said:

Actually, going along other player's analysis is NAI for Pyro (from what I've seen so far). I'm not happy because the players are voting for him simply because he added to the train. Elim bandwagoning would be too easy to catch isn't it? Doubt an elim would try that in the first cycle when they can go under the radar by voting for someone with much less number of votes. I'd still look for a better alternative. 

That’s basically the exact opposite of his current argument of “wouldn’t I have hidden in the votes already there instead of bandwagoning?”. What changed? 

Let me quote a post of mine from the very next page after the post your quoted. This is in response to Eternum's justification of his vote on Pyro in response to my post quoted above:

Quote

Your thoughts are perfectly reasonable. But to be honest, that's their play style. They vote and retract votes from seemingly nowhere. They are very confusing to read at times, and thrive in chaotic situations. It's not your fault you find it elim-y. It would generally be elim-y. But that's just the way they play. They can still definitely be an eliminator, but their actions this cycle is NAI for them.

So the post you quoted was largely specific to Pyro, not other players. I wouldn't find Pyro jumping on a bandwagon to be an elim indication for him, since he does that a lot. But I do find jumping on bandwagons, in general, to be elim-y. 

I appreciate your attempt to go through previous games in an attempt to understand my actions, though your conclusion was not exactly what I expected. There are a lot of similarities between that game and this which you probably missed (or deliberately ignored). I voted for xino in C1 because he changed his style and attempted stab voting. I got heavy suspicion from Eternum for that. I changed my vote to Silber in the same cycle, who ended up getting lynched, and I drew a lot of suspicion despite the fact that people who voted after me had no better reason as well. So it's safe to say that I've been suspected a lot  for my C1 reads being flimsy. 

7 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Do you think there are any elims currently voting on you? Who do you think is most likely to be one? 

To be honest, I'm immediately suspicious of anyone who voted for me, but I try to be as objective as possible. Currently I have 5 votes on me - Magestar, Ventyl, Elbereth, Eternum and Araris. 

• Magestar: I'm unsure of him. He said it doesn't feel like I was the same as I was in LG66, but yet he claims I'm behaving odd. He had claimed the same thing in LG66 too, that my tone and my posts are odd. Why would it indicate that I'm an elim this time, Mage? 
• Ventyl: His vote is the most odd. Whereas everyone thinks that my vote on Ash is suspicious, he voted on me because I'm behaving too villager-y? More on Ventyl later. I have a strong argument against him, and I'm very uncomfortable with so many players giving him a strong village read.
• Elbereth: Could be playing the discussion-heavy mislyncher. But as I said earlier, I'm apprehensive about voting out any active discussion-driving player early in the game. We need to keep an eye on her and see if her discussion and votes are leading towards mislynches all too often. 
• Eternum: I'm very suspicious of him. I'll explain by quoting his posts further below. 
• Araris: It seems like he wants his vote to contribute to something as he would not be available during the rollover. NAI.

Most likely - Ventyl, Eternum.

7 hours ago, Elbereth said:

There have been several vote trains at this point. Look beyond your own survival - analyze those! If anyone who’s had more than 2 votes this cycle is evil, who do you think it is? What movements on or off of wagons have you felt were especially suspicious?

Vote trains till now:

• Ventyl - Araris, Elbereth : This has now since derailed. Araris' vote was a stab. Elbereth voted because she felt his mention of role-indication as mildly suspicious. Both NAI, but revist depending on Ventyl's flip. Araris moved his vote off Ventyl to Devotary because Ventyl said " I don’t think letting them know I’m a Radiant is a big deal, because I’m going to guess that the majority of players are Radiants so would it really be a surprise? " How does this result in a village read? I'm unsure. 
• Gears: Striker, Orlok: I have already mentioned Orlok's vote on Gears as weird, but then he'd pick up on the smallest things as well, so NAI. Striker's reasoning about Gears causing paranoia is not something I agree with, as stated previously, but he tunneled on me very heavily in the last game so I guess it's just him. 
• Striker: Sart, Matrim: I have reiterated multiple times that I do not find Matrim as an elim due to his confusion, and his vote on Striker seems genuine. Unlike Sart's which seems to hinge on the fact that Striker distracted us from the lynch discussion, but Sart hasn't exactly done much to drive the lynch discussion forward. I've seen Sart 'Recently Browsing" quite a few times, and I think he's remaining quiet because you guys seem to be doing all the work for him, if he's elim. 

Reads:

Elbereth: As I said before, heavily involved in discussions, but I do not want to give a village read because she can very well be misleading elim. Watch where her discussions lead closely. Null.

Orlok: I do not agree with his reasoning for his suspicions on Elbereth and Gears. But that does make me lean elim. Has been largely uninvolved in other matters. Is it NAI for him?

Gears: Similar posting style does not equate to similar alignment. So, disagree with anyone give him a village read based on that. Was the first one to propose postponing postponing the Ventyl lynch for later, which is not a good idea as stated by many others as it allows the elims to focus on un-lynchable players believing we'll lynch Ventyl later IF he is village. Could be a method to delay us from lynching elim!Ventyl. Very mild elim.

Ashbringer: Null so far. Disagrees with the majority that at least I've got a reason to vote, rather than throwing a random vote on others. Ash, where's your vote? Your voting pattern is similar to last game so far, in that you seem like intending to vote at the last. (I still feel there's something wrong with that (-ish) btw, I swear if I get lynched for an accurate flimsy vote...)

Striker: I liked his answer to my question, but other than that, his discussion is largely not related to the lynch. I'd like to see some reads from him. Very mild village. 

Matrim: I'm also usually suspicious of people who defend me (Fifth Scholar in QF45), but his defence seems genuine rather than an attempt at pocketing. I like that he's willing to risk a lynch for defending me. I've already told earlier that I find his reaction to Ventyl normal. Village.

Araris: Claims he voted for Ventyl because it seemed Ventyl pseudo-justified his poke-vote on Joe. But in doing so, isn't Araris providing a pseudo-justification for his vote on Ventyl? Having a strategy such as his, it makes it very easy to deflect D1 suspicion with others defending him because it's his style. But can it be he's using this style on the occasion that he's elim to escape suspicion? His vote on Devotary only had reasoning that she did not have a previous vote on her, but this gets chalked up to his style. Mild elim. 

Pyromancer: What was the weird stuff about Honorblades, huh? Seriously, it came from nowhere. It's pretty clear that this isn't a blackout game, so I'm unsure why you would ask this. Why would do think the elims cannot Squire? Bah, you're being your weird usual self, man. Null.

Kynedath: Village. From his one post, he was inquisitive, and gave a positive response. Mainly gut, but have feel that it's a good chance he's village.

Magestar: Weird to say they feel compelled to vote because of a poke. I feel like a villager shouldn't need to be poked to play. I would like him to answer the question I previously posed. Null.

Lahilt: Posts less, whenever they do, I get a strong gut village reading from them (in all games we've played so far). Posting less is NAI for them. Gut village.

Truthwatcher: Their analysis post and their usual posts make me agree with them quite a bit, so I'd like to lean village.

Devotary: Similar to Araris, I believe they could be hiding behind their 'usual style' to avoid suspicion, but no strong indications so far. Null.

Eternum:

16 hours ago, Eternum said:

I have a gut feeling Ventyl is village.
.....
.....
.....
The interactions between him and TJ are interesting, though. I'm not sure what to take from it yet, but I'm gonna vote on Ventyl.

He voted on Ventyl despite having a gut village on him. 

13 hours ago, Eternum said:

So, I wanted to hold off on explaining my reasoning on the Ventyl vote, but there's no point. I don't want to lynch them because they're probably the strongest village read I have right now, but I wanted to see how much momentum the train would gather.

He immediately retract his vote, but shouldn't he have waited if he wants to see the momentum the train would gather?

13 hours ago, Eternum said:

Beyond that, I also wanted to see the reactions to my vote. Specifically if TJ would say anything. He didn't directly respond to me, but he did say he's hesitant to vote on Ventyl. I'm not sure if I'm reading too far into this, but it feels like he's distancing himself from a lynch beneficial to the elims. As I'm writing this, he goes back on that post from earlier and considers the possibility that Ventyl is actually elim. Oddly flip-floppy on whether or not he wants the lynch, it seems.

I said I hesitate to lynch Ventyl on the possibility of his claims being true, but still said he might be an elim. In the next post, I expanded why we need to be wary of him since everyone were jumping to give him 'strong village' reads. You just voted for Ventyl because you wanted to see my reaction for it? Seems like an excuse for your vote-hopping. 

13 hours ago, Eternum said:

The way he got his vote off of Ashbringer is very weird too. Reads to me as an elim trying to back off of a lynch that won't happen with some sort of dignity intact. Remind me of how I backed off of TJ himself in QF45, and I was an elim there, so...

Am I not supposed to retract my vote when I see people not agreeing with my opinion or if they change my mind or if I see other players not adding to my vote? How is this any different to how Araris retracted his vote on Ventyl? Besides, you pushed a lynch on me for 3 whole cycles before backing off. Moderate elim. Make it strong if Ventyl flips elim.

Ventyl:  The main problem I have with Ventyl is he's so adamant to prove his role, but not his alignment. He did the exact same thing in LG66, where he swore he was a Leecher and even wanted to waste his actions to prove that he was one, but the fact that he's telling the truth about his role does not translate to his claim as a villager. Here are a few warning signs I saw from his posts:

• Makes a claim despite being warned not to. Gives no good reason as to why he claimed. 
• Main question to Ventyl supporters: Why would he intentionally put himself in harms way from the elims by claiming? What could he possibly gain?
• His willingness to Squire someone to prove his role (again, role, not alignment) is suspicious. He seems to have no qualms of Squiring an elim by chance.

11 hours ago, Ventyl said:

@Elbereth I hope you’re not a Radiant, because I’m going to Squire you.

This! Why did everyone brush it off? Am I the only one seeing it as an attempt to bait out a claim from Elbereth? Why no worries that elims might read and attempt to block? Even if they don't, everyone would know Elbereth's role or the lack of it after his attempt to Squire as it seems he intended to reveal if it was success or not. As for him asking to be alignment scanned, someone already deduced he might be an Edgedancer, so he could make himself untargetable and waste a charge of the alignment-scanner. 

We are allowing him to Squire, but if he's an elim KR like I suspect he is, we're allowing him to Squire another elim before dying. Why aren't we considering this?  

8 hours ago, Ventyl said:

I think that if the elims do have Gravitation, it’s in the form of a Windrunner. Also, I thought that just came to me is that it probably wouldn’t be a good idea for any Dustbringers or Skybreakers to Squire, unless you have a really strong read on someone. Giving the elims Division would not be good, but then it could also lead to the death of an elim after they use the extra kill, because they person who Squired them would know who they gave it too. So really, unless you know someone’s been alignment scanned and you trust the person who did the scan, don’t Squire if you’re a Dustbringer/Skybreaker.

This point was mentioned two times in the very first page. Why do you feel the need to mention it again? Strong elim. Ventyl has 0 votes on him at the moment, so he's likely not getting lynched. But I'm asking y'all to consider all these points. Maybe you'll believe that this post is an honest opinion when I die and flip village. 

5 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Sometime earlier today I moved to TJ because my vote on Matrim wasn't going anywhere and I wanted to see what would happen if I pushed someone out of the 2-2-2-2(?) tie.

Your vote was the third on me. Mage and Ventyl voted had already voted before. But again, don't you see the problem? None of the other players have gained any votes. Ventyl train has completely fallen off. I'm now wholly the main lynch candidate here. I'd imagine some of my elim teammates would have dropped votes on either Striker or Gears at the moment as an alternate, if I was an elim. 

Gears, solely as a preservation vote. Doesn't matter if I vote on Gears or Striker, both are likely to vote on me in self-preservation as well. Between them, I suspect Gears just a bit more. But would love to shift to Ventyl if there's some support to lynch him.

Edited July 3, 2020 by TJ Shade