Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

[Furamirionind]

1 minute ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Can I PM Joe whenever? That doesn't count as my message?

Yeah, you can say or ask anything at any time in that PM.

edit: And no, that wont count as your message

Edited May 25, 2020 by Furamirionind

[A Joe in the Bush]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Can I PM Joe whenever? That doesn't count as my message?

Please do! It's lonely making Spaghetti without questions.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Before I used to write a bunch of short, impulsive posts, which made people more suspicious, but now I'm trying to consolidate my thoughts. For example:

I was reading through the roles and noticed some things. The only way to tell if there are any elims still around are Stalkers and Renowned's, and since we don't know how many there are, those roles are especially critical. I asked Joe, and PM's don't target, so Stalkers could help narrow down elims, while Renowned's are just your classic scanner. If all of those roles get killed, then there's no way to track the elims down. Renowned's are especially important, as they are the only way to tell if there's elims left if bleeder's still alive and the elim starts killing on only even hours. And TBH, Bleeder's probably going to be around for a long time, because the odds of finding them are more or less 1/30 (because you can't really find connections between them and others like you can elims).

 

@StrikerEZ, part of it was that I just didn't understand how to do analysis back then (for example I voted on Straw at one point because they voted on someone while quoting another post, which I was confused by, and so came up with an elaborate theory on how they were in league with like 4 others). Now, as I know more, I'm trying to write fewer, but longer posts. Probably should have stated that better at the beginning.

[Karnage]

2 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

101'st post! Congrats!

Thanks! I didn't even realize I'd hit that mile stone. How fun!

 

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

You know what, Karnage

Thanks!, Well, now that youve posted I guess I will put a vote on TGK. Have you posted yet? Poke vote for now. @The_God_King

Edit: Oops I forgot to retract my vot on Fura

Edited May 25, 2020 by Karnage

[Arrae]

Okay so maybe it's time to actually read the rules. Fair warning, like last game I'm still doing everything voice typing, so you might see more typos and grammar mistakes than you'd expect out of me, because Google Docs voice typing has a tendency to misinterpret my words. If I sound a lot more casual this game, it's probably because of that.

Here at the win cons, as best as I've been able to sort out:
Criminals: disperse the party with no constables left in it AND do not let Winsting die, OR have all constables and Bleeder dead.
Bleeder: kill Flogs and then Winsting in that order, AND do not let the party disperse before then.
Constables: have at least one member of their team alive when the party is dispersed, AND do not let Winsting die.
5th Octant Constable: have at least one member of their team alive when the party is disbursed, AND do not let Winsting die, AND find a way for Dowser to die.
Dowser: disperse the party with no constables left in it AND do not let Winsting die, OR have all constables and Bleeder dead. AND find a way for the 5th Octant Constable to die.

 

 

Almost everybody wants Winsting to stay alive. It's much easier for Winsting to stay alive if Floggs never dies, because if there is no Winsting then Winsting cannot be killed. Bleeder winning means that everyone else loses, so it might be worth it for the criminals and the constables to work together to keep Winsting Alive.

Bleeder could work with the constables to keep enough of them alive that the party doesn't get disbursed too quickly, but this would be a one-way partnership because bleeder cannot win with the constables, and everybody knows that, so whatever partnership they make, if they do make one, will inevitably end with one of them backstabbing the other, because they cannot both win.

Unlike all the other constables, who want the party to disperse early, the fifth octant Constable doesn't want it to disburse too early, because otherwise Dowser might still be alive. Because of this, they'll be working against the constables a bit, at least until Dowser is dead. It's entirely possible that a fifth octant Constable might end up acting like a villager up until they’re sure that Dowser is dead, at least when it comes to votes to disperse the party.

Dowser on the other hand, does not work against the criminals nearly as much. As a criminal, Dowser needs all the constables to be dead before the party disperses. The 5th Octant Constable is one particular constable, which means that they're far more likely to kill them before the party disperses if they act like a normal villager. 

In total, the constables and Bleeder have weird wincons, while the criminals don't really. For the criminals, this works out exactly like a normal game if they focus on getting both the constables and Bleeder dead. I think the only time where calling for dispersing the party would be optimal would be if the criminals are certain that all constables are dead, and that they have no way to find Bleeder.

[Araris Valerian]

I’m here and I think I’ll vote on Karnage, as someone who is only poke-voting and who also already has a vote.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Summary below the multiquote.

11 hours ago, DeTess said:

Yeah. Basically, for every cycle (hours in this game) there'll be a new thread, while the previous cycles will get merged into one mega-thread afterwards.

Nothing to say here on your thoughts, DeTess, but just wanted to say hi - it has been too long.

10 hours ago, Straw said:

I will note that Flogs is an alignment scanner, not a role scanner. Renowned are the role scanners. However, he just scans constable/non-constable, so he can't even 100% trust any of the people he scans. But yes, I would recommend that Flogs be very careful. I will also note that Flogs is immune to the lynch, and I would certainly call that a "survival ability".

I don't see why we would necessarily trust someone protected by a bodyguard in the first place, since we have the Constables, Bleeder, and any bartenders that might be around as possible killers. After all, kills aren't differentiated according to Joe. However, I suppose they'll have a higher likelihood of being village, since Bleeder wants the Constables alive.

Agreed on this. Focusing on Bleeder that much would probably be a waste of effort.

Emphasis mine. You wanted to know why I voted on you - pretty sure this was what threw my gut off. Why "probably" @Straw?

10 hours ago, Coda said:

There are a lot of players. This is the population size I'd expect from an LG. I definitely need to reread the rules, but don't die, Flogs. I'll go read the rules and be back in a bit.

Can anyone with more experience playing with Coda tell me if this sort of platitude is typical of them? It strikes me as a bare faced attempt to appear village. @Coda, why bother with that comment?

8 hours ago, Karnage said:

Also agreed. We also need to make sure not to disperse early in the game when there is still a chance of Constables being alive. That means we need to get rid of 7-8ish constable if Straw is to believed. 

 

I'm not sure how to take this but if this was a Legit vote to disperse which it probably is not because it looks like it was retracted this might be a sign for future constables. 

What did you mean by a sign for future constables, @Karnage?

7 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

Hello everyone! Hopefully I can manage to not die this time.

Typical factions, but an interesting interaction of wincons. Constables can win by outnumbering or mostly outnumbering the village, but a lone constable might still bring home the victory if they can convince everyone they don't exist. Made more plausible by the fact that once Flogs dies, any of the factions might give the game to Bleeder by killing Winsting by mistake, so dispersal could become a legitimate option for the village at some point in the game.

A scan role. Useful for catching elims, but less so for verifying villagers. More interesting is its interaction with the next role, which means that this role should avoid revealing the results of their scans overtly to anyone.

Interestingly enough, Flogs might actually be safer sharing their identity with a scanned constable instead of a scanned villager, as the constables have a vested interest in keeping him alive. Not that they should do this, of course, but its interesting to think about.  

No special powers. If you get this role, you should avoid dying at all costs.  Since each faction has a kill, and Winsting is unlikely to be able to reveal himself, there's actually a decent probability he gets killed by someone other then Bleeder by mistake.

In order for Bleeder to win, she needs to kill both Flogs and Winsting. Because of this, it's in her best interests to keep at least one constable alive for as long as possible, in order to increase the number of kills flying around. However, she also wants to make sure that the elims' numbers are kept in check, so the party doesn't disperse before she's finished. That's presumably where her scan comes in handy.

Since kill actions against Bleeder fail, she can only die by being lynched. Since the Constables very much want her dead, they will presumbably encourage her lynch. Interesting...

The primary purpose of this role is as an incentive to extend the game. Wincons in this game are extremely time sensitive, and this works as an interesting counterpoint. Once the game is over, I'd be curious to see whether this role chooses to reveal themselves in doc or not.

This could potentially give Bleeder away, giving her another reason to scan her targets before killing them.

Similar to the previous role, but on the village side. 

A protection role. Basically an extra village life.

Vote manip. Speaking of global ties, make sure at least one person votes- otherwise, everyone dies. At that point, I would assume that the constables would win, unless Flogs had already been killed (in which case Bleeder would).

More vote manip.

A redirect.

A protection role.

Being asleep means that your vote doesn't count for dispersal. If used on a constable at LyLo, this could save the village- however, if used on a villager in the same scenario, it would doom them instead.

Village kill role.

Interesting that Winsting would appear as having an extra life when he doesn't...

Lots of talking. Hopefully whoever gets this role has a lot to say.

I think this is an action scan?

Useful but entirely NAI post from Xino. I'm always a little wary of people trying to hide behind this sort of post. @xinoehp512, plenty more has now been said in thread. Thoughts on any players? Particularly interested in your thoughts on Straw, Coda, and Pyro.

7 hours ago, Emi said:

Wow. That's a lot of informations

Strong village read from Emi's in thread posts.

6 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Right, checking in. I'm going to try to be less active this game, as all my previous games everyone has hated on me d1/killed me N1, and I'm trying to remedy that.

@The Young Pyromancer, this has been addressed, but my philosophy is that as villager the most important thing to do is to generate useable information about your alignment and your views on other people. Inactivity both reduces information about your alignment, but also reduces our observations about your interactions with others. 

5 hours ago, Straw said:

Good catch from Xino about Elkanah's thing on Gambling Tycoons. We don't get a role flip from them until they die, AFAIK, so I don't think they give us that much information.

I find it interesting in hindsight that Matrim jumped on me right after Wilson. There's a slight possibility that he was trying to jump on her vote and get a lynch train on me.

@Straw, do you genuinely believe Matrim was actually trying to get a lynch train on you with a post like that?

5 hours ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

I noticed Araris was 29th before I read Wilson's post, so it was sort of like I was ninja'd, but not really since she posted before I did. Either way I realize the confusion Straw.

The only problem now is that I have to vote on someone else.... Archivist I guess, following Straw's pattern of the first inactive person on the list. I'm not gonna say Araris because I don't want to start a train on someone who hasn't posted anything.

Quoting this mostly because I missed it prior to voting on Straw, in my rushed skim of the thread. @Matrim's_Dice, fancy moving your vote back onto Straw so we generate further information? Your present poke vote is highly unlikely to do anything.

2 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

That is true. Worst I was was neutral.

 

The game I was survival, twice (it restarted)

The faction game I played. 

The QF with AG rules.

The other shard game.

Etc.

Strong gut read against Pyro based on this post.

Promised summary:

Village:

Emi

Concerned about:

Xino, Coda

Very concerned about:

Straw, Pyro

 

Also, I was hoping some of you might have missed me enough to actually PM me...

[Mat]

@Orlok Tsubodai, I'll leave my vote where it is, for now. We'll see tomorrow, I probably will change it then depending on other posts. It most likely won't stay on Archivist. 

I was thinking similar things about Coda, that did seem like a throwaway comment to me as well. 

[Elkanah]

12 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Can anyone with more experience playing with Coda tell me if this sort of platitude is typical of them? It strikes me as a bare faced attempt to appear village. @Coda, why bother with that comment?

I can confirm this is pretty NAI for Coda.

15 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

What did you mean by a sign for future constables, @Karnage?

Good question! I won't be voting Karnage for a bit because I still feel bad for how hard I tunnelled on you last game @Karnage. However, I would like an answer to this:

16 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

  7 hours ago, Karnage said:

I'm not sure how to take this but if this was a Legit vote to disperse which it probably is not because it looks like it was retracted this might be a sign for future constables.

bold mine.

[The Young Pyromancer]

11 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Strong gut read against Pyro based on this post.

I was referring to past games. It was said that I complain about everyone hating on me D1/N1, but that every time I have done so in the past I was village (they think). I was stating that yes, they were correct, historically every time I've complained about being popular D1 was a time when I was neutral/village. 

To be fair though, I've never been Mafia, so it's not like that's saying much. I'm actually disappointed that I didn't get to be something more interesting this game. I would have loved to be Bleeder, fighting against both factions with the odds stacked against me. That would have been sweet. The Constable's having to balance kills with the possibility of helping bleeder would have been fascinating to manage as well. But alas, I am neither.

[Mat]

What does NAI stand for? When I looked it up it said 'not actually injured'....

[Elkanah]

Sorry, I should know better than to use acronyms when a third of the players this game are newer. NAI is Not an Indicator for alignment.

 

Edit: Actually it's probably "Not Alignment Indicative" So I've had that wrong for ages.

Edited May 25, 2020 by Elkanah

[Straw]

6 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Emphasis mine. You wanted to know why I voted on you - pretty sure this was what threw my gut off. Why "probably" @Straw?

That's how I talk in general. I'm pretty sure this is just you taking issue with how I speak. You might want to look at how I've talked in some recent games. I tend to throw in stuff like "probably" because there are edge cases where it'd be better to go after Bleeder. For example: If Bleeder dies, then we'll win as soon as we catch the last constable. Due to this, if we think we've caught all of the constables and Flogs isn't dead yet, we might want to try to go after Bleeder instead of dispersing. That way, we can confirm our victory.

16 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Straw, do you genuinely believe Matrim was actually trying to get a lynch train on you with a post like that?

Nope. I wanted to see how he'd react.

19 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Quoting this mostly because I missed it prior to voting on Straw, in my rushed skim of the thread. @Matrim's_Dice, fancy moving your vote back onto Straw so we generate further information? Your present poke vote is highly unlikely to do anything.

You do realize that his vote was made on false assumption, right? Also, what information do you think that would gain you? I'd much rather see Matrim put out his own reads, rather than following yours.

Agreed on Xino, Pyro, and Karnage. I'm most suspicious of Xino though. As I believe I've mentioned, he does seem to be adding unnecessary fluff to his posts. I'll be fine with Pyro if he actually starts posting useful things.

1 minute ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

What does NAI stand for? When I looked it up it said 'not actually injured'....

Non Alignment Indicative. I think it might be in the SE Lexicon, but that's always hit or miss.

[Arrae]

@Orlok Tsubodai you should know that PMs in this game are a single message to one person per cycle, which doesn't allow for quality communication no matter how much people miss you. People are probably conserving their single PM for later, in case true need pops up.

Edited May 25, 2020 by Arraenae

[The Young Pyromancer]

10 minutes ago, Straw said:

be fine with Pyro if he actually starts posting useful things.

To be fair, I did confirm that PM's don't count as targeting the recipient in the case of the smuggler, but okay.

Joe provided a possible scenario for a Gossip/Gossip, so holding two of the same role is possible. Not sure how that would work with the roles that require actions, but the possibility of stacked extra lives means that the Constables might have trouble finding Bleeder, as it could just be their target has a lot of lives as opposed to being immune to the kill. This means the Constables probably have some other way to deduce who is Bleeder, such as a scanner or Stalker. Though considering the size of the game, they probably have at least one anyways.

@Straw that good enough for you? 

[Furamirionind]

7 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Lastly, time to get some thoughts about the game out. I was going to do something like what xino did, but I should've known he would've already done it by now.  He basically had all the same kinds of thoughts I've had about the game. Just would like to say that I think we need to be very careful about when or if we disperse. I would not put it past Joe to put in something like 9 elims this game, just to throw us off since we're all probably assuming that there's 7-8 elims based on percentage alone. At that point, I would assume that the elims wouldn't have very many powerful roles. That would be more than made up by the extra elim though. I'm not sure how much I believe this theory, but I know I definitely would've considered that distribution if I were running this. Just to make it more likely that the constables would have a chance to win by getting the village to disperse when they believe they've found the last elim.

Ok, so this threw me off when I first read it, but I did some looking at the kills and:

Votes needed for Dispersing the party

C1: 18-12 (30 -lynch, -elims, -sk)
C2: 17-10 (27 -lynch, -elims, -sk, -bartender(?))
C3: 14-9 (23 -lynch, -elims, -sk)
C4: 12-8 (20 -lynch, -elims, -sk -bartender(?))
C5: 10-6 (16 -lynch, -elims, -sk)
C6: 8-5 (13 -lynch, -elims, -sk -bartender(?))
C7: 6-3 (9 -lynch, -elims, -sk)
C8: 4-2 (6 -lynch, -elims, -sk -bartender(?))

This is if everything goes perfectly for the elims, and no kills or lynches target them. 25% of 30 players is 7.5, so there are probably about that many, but it doesn't make a big difference to if there are 6-9 elims as long as there are less than 10. And especially in this game it's wise to assume the most amount of elims, so 9 is probably a good number looking at this as the elims would then win on C6, which gives plenty of time for the village.

Another thing to consider though is a perfect village game (assuming 10 elims):

C1: 19-10-1 (30 -lynch, -elims, -sk)
C2: 18-8-1 (27 -lynch, -elims, -sk, -bartender(?))
C3: 17-5-1 (23 -lynch, -elims, -sk)
C4: 16-3-1 (20 -lynch, -elims, -sk -bartender(?))
C5: 15-0-1 (16 -lynch, -sk)

This also seems reasonable. With either 9 or 10 elims it would take 5 cycles to kill them all...

And I had a lot of stuff to do, but got distracted with a PM, and now have stuff I need to do IRL. I'll be back later tonight.
Hopefully this makes sense... Lol... I've been working on this for so long I've kind of forgotten why I was interested in this... xD

[Straw]

4 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

To be fair, I did confirm that PM's don't count as targeting the recipient in the case of the smuggler, but okay.

Joe provided a possible scenario for a Gossip/Gossip, so holding two of the same role is possible. Not sure how that would work with the roles that require actions, but the possibility of stacked extra lives means that the Constables might have trouble finding Bleeder, as it could just be their target has a lot of lives as opposed to being immune to the kill. This means the Constables probably have some other way to deduce who is Bleeder, such as a scanner or Stalker. Though considering the size of the game, they probably have at least one anyways.

@Straw that good enough for you? 

That's pretty eh. I'm not going to really look at clarifications as contributions.

Yes, Joe said in the rules that people could have more than two roles. I'm not sure if that'll still hold up with the increased number of players though. He said that people have one action, so that answers your second sentence, I suppose.

If you keep posting rather than trying to hide in the shadows, I'll probably be okay. What are your reads, currently?

57 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Strong village read from Emi's in thread posts.

Village:

Emi

Looking back, I don't see much to prompt a village read? All of their posts have been confused, which I take as NAI. You could make the argument that they'd be less uncertain about stuff if they had teammates supporting them, but I don't really buy that. Am I missing something?

[A Joe in the Bush]

2 minutes ago, Straw said:

Yes, Joe said in the rules that people could have more than two roles. I'm not sure if that'll still hold up with the increased number of players though. He said that people have one action, so that answers your second sentence, I suppose.

Wait did I? If so that was a typo. No one has more than 2 roles.

[Straw]

1 minute ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Wait did I? If so that was a typo. No one has more than 2 roles.

I was writing and fused "more than one" and "could have two". You didn't make a mistake.

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, Straw said:

Nope. I wanted to see how he'd react.

Hmm... Did I pass your test?

 

[The Young Pyromancer]

23 minutes ago, Straw said:

What are your reads, currently?

Wilson being weird makes it hard to read her, but I think that's the point? You gotta wonder if she'd write like that in the Elim doc too though.

Matrim's dice seems a little weird. They've been just asking a lot of questions, and after the miscommunication with the player list was resolved, they left their vote on you, which seemed illogical to me. 

Karnage's post didn't really make sense, even as an elim/sk. That means it's probably forgetting the elims have a doc or something? Soft village read.

You and Orlock seem to be making a big deal of me trying to play differently, and seem to think that is a big sign that I'm an elim. If I was smart enough to warn you I was trying to play differently, I'd probably be smart enough to try to play like my normal. As I don't have any experience elimming, I'd probably play as normal as I could, and not shift my playstyle all of a sudden. That would be kinda silly. You seem to be being more reasonable about it than Orlock is, so I'm a little suspicious of him, but I can't really see his motive. It's not like I'm some high profile threat you would want to push for lynching d1 as an elim. So Orlock's probably just being Orlock.

So a whole bunch of nothing, mostly. I was waiting till I had something better, but you asked for it!

[Sart]

Vote Count:
Araris (1): Straw
Straw (2): Wilson, Orlok
Archivist (1): Matrim's Dice
Karnage (2): Furamirionind, Araris
The God King (1): Karnage

I am a firm believer in a Day One lynch. Therefore, I will force the issue by voting on Straw. I haven't noticed Karnage behaving differently than normal, and I think every game I've played with him he's been a villager. Plus, Straw is poking a lot of people on their reads, but not actually making any reads himself. For these reasons, my vote is going on him.

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Matrim's dice seems a little weird. They've been just asking a lot of questions, and after the miscommunication with the player list was resolved, they left their vote on you, which seemed illogical to me.

Actually, I retracted it to @The_Archivist because he is inactive and alphabetical order and the like, as a poke vote.

I am asking questions because I'm a new player. 

What I think is kind of strange is Straw leaving his vote on Araris after they posted, seeing as the only reason Straw voted them is because they were inactive.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Just now, Matrim's_Dice said:

Actually, I retracted it to @The_Archivist because he is inactive and alphabetical order and the like, as a poke vote.

I am asking questions because I'm a new player. 

What I think is kind of strange is Straw leaving his vote on Araris after they posted, seeing as the only reason Straw voted them is because they were inactive.

Sorry, I missed that.

With Straw, he probably forgot, but better than nothing I guess. I'll change it when Straw changes/provides a reason.

Straw.

[Straw]

15 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Hmm... Did I pass your test?

 

It seemed like your vote was a legitimate mistake, and you didn't really jump at me for going after you. That's point in your favor IMO.

11 minutes ago, Sart said:

Vote Count:
Araris (1): Straw
Straw (2): Wilson, Orlok
Archivist (1): Matrim's Dice
Karnage (2): Furamirionind, Araris
The God King (1): Karnage

I am a firm believer in a Day One lynch. Therefore, I will force the issue by voting on Straw. I haven't noticed Karnage behaving differently than normal, and I think every game I've played with him he's been a villager. Plus, Straw is poking a lot of people on their reads, but not actually making any reads himself. For these reasons, my vote is going on him.

I believe I have quite clearly said that I was suspicious of Xino, Karnage, and Pyro and thought Emi was NAI. On Karnage, I would like to see an explanation from him. I think it's his second game or something, so weirdness can be excused. I suppose I haven't given many reads from other people, so here are some other reads:

Kynedath: Gut village read. I liked that they helped out Matrim and Emi.

Hemalurgic Headshot: Minor gut elim read. They were waffling back and forth on a D1 lynch, which I disliked.

Coda: NAI. They said one general thing encouraging Flogs to not die, which I don't find suspicious. Flos has an alignment scan, so I think they were probably encouraging Flogs to be careful with who they trust to pass on their reads to. I don't get why people would find that suspicious.

Araris: They showed up, voted on Karnage with no explanation that I could see, and left. I don't like it.

Wilson: I of course find their elim read of me to be suspicious, but I'll put them as NAI until I can figure out their posting style.

7 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Actually, I retracted it to @The_Archivist because he is inactive and alphabetical order and the like, as a poke vote.

I am asking questions because I'm a new player. 

What I think is kind of strange is Straw leaving his vote on Araris after they posted, seeing as the only reason Straw voted them is because they were inactive.

They posted? Okay, found it. I'll move from Araris to Xino. I'd like to see some non-rules related discussion from him.

Side note: I'm fairly annoyed that I'm seemingly being targeted based on gut and possibly the fact that I'm one of the more active posters.