Mid-Range Game 62: In The Shadow of Ash

[Fifth Scholar]

15 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Edit: Oh. Bip can be Inquisitor. The elim spike just needs to be Tin

Wait. Duh. This makes a ton of sense. I still think we kill Aman first, but this makes him a convert who got Tin, and helps me keep my v!reads of you and TJ straight. If he’s the Inq, I’m also still happy to be wrong  

[Amanuensis]

O.o

[Amanuensis]

Fifth

7 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

but would like to hear his actual role if it isn’t Inquisitor, as I think there is no way that he’s a Thug

You know darn well I'm a Thug >> but I guess wasting the exe on my extra life now and winning by double tapping me is the best strategy for you

Edited March 1, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Amanuensis]

Araris

7 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I like the argument that was made end of last cycle about his voting

What argument? I just skimmed it and there was none.

Edited March 1, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Amanuensis]

Biplet

Araris vote might've been a momentary lapse in sanity. Though I do find this push extremely weird, last cycle being wolf theater is insane to me.

Exe Bip, exe Fifth, GG Village
Exe anyone else, GG Spiked

ED1T:

Omg we have an Inquisitor and e!Mistborn that both role 2 metals a day and just one having vote manip means we lose no matter what =\ GG anyway

Edited March 1, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Fifth Scholar]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Fifth

You know darn well I'm a Thug >> but I guess wasting the exe on my extra life now and winning by double tapping me is the best strategy for you

What?  If I was evil and thought you were a Thug, this is literally the worst possible course of action because you still only have one vote and I wouldn't kill that vote with a misexe. It's way easier to kill two of Araris or TJ or Bip and just win by vote majority.

I mean, I'm sympathetic to a Bip exe, but altogether I think your death makes more sense to accomplish first, because contingent upon Bip's claim, she's a Tineye whom you have converted, and Occam's Razor puts you as a more likely Inquisitor. The alternative - that you were simply converted - is also palatable because it will get Araris and TJ off my back and give us one more cleared person (or more likely just incentivise your team to kill me lol) and then we can go Inq hunting tomorrow, or rather whoever is left alive can. 

If you want me to switch off of you, I would need a good reason to suspect Araris or TJ more than you. Bip is a question mark who's probably evil, but if you're village, whomever of Araris/TJ is actually the convert or is evil is the more important person to catch because they're the person duping us who will win the 2v1. Until then, I'm assuming it's you, and having duplicate Pewterarms makes little sense to me anyway.

Quote

Omg we have an Inquisitor and e!Mistborn that both role 2 metals a day and just one having vote manip means we lose no matter what =\ GG anyway

Considering that, if I am evil, we had this same situation last cycle and didn't lose to a hammer, maybe this is reason to suspect I'm not a convert?

EDIT: would also like to note that I PMed TJ for the first time in five days and saw that he'd been looking over our PM as recently as three hours ago when there was no role information of consequence in it, so I feel like that points further towards v!him who is actually trying to do analysis and solve things

Edited March 1, 2023 by Fifth Scholar

[Araris Valerian]

52 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Araris

What argument? I just skimmed it and there was none.

My bad, I was misremembering. The point was made about Fifth voting with Kas/Wiz on you.

Aman

The fact we haven’t lost and that there is no openwolfing does suggest v!Ffith. The problem with Inquisitor Bip is that it requires a very specific spike.

I kinda think the conversion happened C3, and that Bip is an original Tineye. That explains why Wiz didn’t know what an Unsnapped/Smoked scan would look like, since he needed his action for the NK instead. Now, the funny thing is Fifth claimed electrum C3, which, if true, means the elims just now made their conversion. (Or failed again, though that’s a bit unlikely)

It also suggests that we have Inquisitor Aman or TJ (or me, if you entertain that world). *sigh* Aman

[Amanuensis]

16 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

What?  If I was evil and thought you were a Thug, this is literally the worst possible course of action because you still only have one vote and I wouldn't kill that vote with a misexe. It's way easier to kill two of Araris or TJ or Bip and just win by vote majority.

I mean, I'm sympathetic to a Bip exe, but altogether I think your death makes more sense to accomplish first, because contingent upon Bip's claim, she's a Tineye whom you have converted, and Occam's Razor puts you as a more likely Inquisitor. The alternative - that you were simply converted - is also palatable because it will get Araris and TJ off my back and give us one more cleared person (or more likely just incentivise your team to kill me lol) and then we can go Inq hunting tomorrow, or rather whoever is left alive can. 

If you want me to switch off of you, I would need a good reason to suspect Araris or TJ more than you. Bip is a question mark who's probably evil, but if you're village, whomever of Araris/TJ is actually the convert or is evil is the more important person to catch because they're the person duping us who will win the 2v1. Until then, I'm assuming it's you, and having duplicate Pewterarms makes little sense to me anyway.

Considering that, if I am evil, we had this same situation last cycle and didn't lose to a hammer, maybe this is reason to suspect I'm not a convert?  

Araris is a Seer (atium protection)
TJ is unsnapped (no role)
Aman is a Thug

These are the three players you can mix today. Araris is soft-cleared by calling out Wiz's gambit yesterday (and imho I should be too, if to a lesser extent). Both TJ and Araris started today voting for me, and your win con is as follows:

On 2/13/2023 at 10:33 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Your goal is to outnumber all of the Villagers. If parity is reached and there are no villagers with vote manipulation, the Spiked win.

Just one player needs to die today, not two, for the elims to win. Hard stop.

Edited March 1, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Araris Valerian]

@Biplet, do you have juicy scan results for us? Was someone sneaking around at night when they should have been sleeping?

[|TJ|]

Smh, I was assuming you could convert and kill in the same cycle, totally forgot about action economy. 

Okay, just to confirm, @StrikerEZ, conversion is considered as an action, right?

Assuming it is, and in a v!Araris world - 

Cycle 1 - Kas scans Araris accurately, Inq kills Bookwyrm
Cycle 2 - Wiz claims to have scanned Bip. Wait, Mat said something hold on - 

On 2/28/2023 at 0:37 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

Actually, right after Wiz subbed in, I asked what he scanned Bip as and he said she was a Tineye

I assume this is C3 beginning because why would Mat ask it in C2. The absolute truth is elims knew Biplet's role at the start of C3. It can happen IF - Wiz scanned Bip OR Elims converted Biplet (either with Tin Spike or she was a Tineye originally) OR Bip is the Inquisitor. 

Case - 1 : Wiz actually scans Biplet. Inq kills Stick. 
Case - 2 : Wiz kills Stick. Inq converts Bip (either with a Tin Spike or she's Tineye from the beginning, doesn't matter)
Case - 3 : Wiz kills Stick. Inq!Bip converts someone else with a Tin Spike. Unlikely, as it requires Inq!Bip to take a leap of faith that Mat was not bluffing about his role as she claimed to have watched Mat in... C3 I think. Need to look into Kas-Bip interactions/mentions to be more confident that this is not likely. 

Cycle 3 - Now Wiz obviously did not scan Mat, which is why he hasn't sure of the result. Continuing the cases from Cycle - 2: 

Case - 1 cont. : Wiz kills TKN. Inq [Araris/Aman] converts one of Bip, Fifth and the other of [Araris/Aman]. Fifth claims to have burned Electrum this cycle. In e!Aman case, v!Araris unlikely to be the convert as they know he's Seer and it's late in the game and they cannot afford a failed conversion.

Case - 2 cont. : Bip is converted in this case. Irrelevant what Wiz or Inq does in the cycle tbh. Inq remains confined to Araris or Aman. 

Case - 3 cont. : Bip is Inq in this case. Convert in [Aman, Araris, Fifth]

Tldr: 

Case - 1 (Scans Biplet in C2, Conversion in C3/C4?) :

TJ - Village Unsnapped
Araris - Village Seer/Converted Elim Seer/Inquisitor
Aman - Inquisitor
Fifth - Village Mistborn/Converted Elim Mistborn
Biplet - Village Tineye/Converted Elim Tineye 

Case - 2 (Conversion in C2, Convert is Biplet) :

TJ - Village Unsnapped
Araris - Village Seer/Inquisitor
Aman - Village x?/Inquisitor
Fifth - Village Mistborn
Biplet - Converted Elim Tineye

Case - 3 (Conversion in C2, Bip is Inq) :

TJ - Village Unsnapped
Araris - Village Seer/Converted Elim Seer + Tineye Spike
Aman - Village x?/Converted Elim X + Tineye Spike
Fifth - Village Mistborn/Converted Elim Mistborn + Tineye Spike
Biplet - Inquisitor

I had typed till here and then I had to leave as I'm travelling overnight tonight. Typing this in the bus as we speak, I wanted to post this along with thread re-read + vote analysis to see which case is even more filterable. I'll get to that tomorrow, but as I see right now, Case 1 and Case 2 are a lot more likely than Case - 3, and whenever Araris v Aman come up in Inq discussion, Aman is more suspect. 

[Amanuensis]

On 2/25/2023 at 7:43 PM, The Known Novel said:

I will say, I'm willing to give him at least a soft clear, since I scanned him taking no action last night, and gave him no indication that I was doing so.

In case anyone forgot TKN target checked me N2 and I did nothing because I can do nothing because I'm just a village thug >:(

Edited March 1, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Araris Valerian]

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

In case anyone forgot TKN target checked me N2 and I did nothing because I can do nothing because I'm just a village thug >:(

Oh yeah. That is very relevant, given that we are worried about action economy. The elims definitely killed C2 and either scanned or converted, so Aman can’t be the Inquisitor. Aman

Uh. I think that means it’s TJ, unless we are really convinced that the elims had a Tin spike.

[|TJ|]

It's not me, sigh. 

@Araris Valerian, did you use Atium C1 or C2? Aman could have tried to convert you but failed. 

If not, Biplet is the Inquisitor. 

Edited March 1, 2023 by |TJ|

[Amanuensis]

I’m still convinced Fifth is the convert and I’m not getting the vibe he has Pewter this cycle based on how he’s playing this turn so far. We need a red flip today or we lose

ED1T:

I guess I can see TJ being an early Unsnapped convert who Snapped Tineye (probably more likely than elims having a Tineye spike) but my v!TJ credences are higher than my Fifth ones.

ED2T:

Hm. Biplet was the player who broke the four way tie with TJ in it. I’m not sure if that was to prevent v!TJ snapping or to remove the risk of e!TJ dying

ED3T:

I’d also like to resurface these posts from C3

Unless I’ve been doing galaxy brain distancing or got converted last night, I’ve been on Wiz’s case since C2 and the main thing holding me back was Mat

 

Edited March 1, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Fifth Scholar]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

I’m still convinced Fifth is the convert and I’m not getting the vibe he has Pewter this cycle based on how he’s playing this turn so far. We need a red flip today or we lose

My brother in the Ja, you can be as convinced of this as you like but I am the Inquisitor in exactly zero worlds and I feel like that's the elim we should be going for, yeah? 

So if TKN didn't run into some kind of action interference, this strengthens e!Bip credentials because WizKas could have killed while she spiked, and the scan on her could easily have been faked. If Araris is evil, the conversion happened C1 instead. I still think there's no reason to go after TJ. Biplet is the obvious Inq candidate and the impermanence of Aman's vote on her is giving me pause about him being the convert as well. 

I suppose a world we haven't given much thought to is one where the Inquisitor didn't convert till N3 or N4 in which case we can't really strike Aman off any lists

@Biplet any clarity you can offer would be wonderful

[Amanuensis]

2 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

My brother in the Ja, you can be as convinced of this as you like but I am the Inquisitor in exactly zero worlds and I feel like that's the elim we should be going for, yeah? 

So if TKN didn't run into some kind of action interference, this strengthens e!Bip credentials because WizKas could have killed while she spiked, and the scan on her could easily have been faked. If Araris is evil, the conversion happened C1 instead. I still think there's no reason to go after TJ. Biplet is the obvious Inq candidate and the impermanence of Aman's vote on her is giving me pause about him being the convert as well. 

I suppose a world we haven't given much thought to is one where the Inquisitor didn't convert till N3 or N4 in which case we can't really strike Aman off any lists

@Biplet any clarity you can offer would be wonderful

You missed a lot of edits good sir

[Fifth Scholar]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

You missed a lot of edits good sir

Okay maybe but why is your vote on me and not Bip? By your own admission in these posts, it's implied by e!Wiz and if you're insisting on a world where you're not Inquisitor, I don't know where else you turn for the Inquisitor unless, again, you want to accuse Araris or TJ, which you should do sooner rather than later so we don't lose  

[StrikerEZ]

49 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Okay, just to confirm, @StrikerEZ, conversion is considered as an action, right?

Yes.

[Amanuensis]

Just now, Fifth Scholar said:

Okay maybe but why is your vote on me and not Bip? By your own admission in these posts, it's implied by e!Wiz and if you're insisting on a world where you're not Inquisitor, I don't know where else you turn for the Inquisitor unless, again, you want to accuse Araris or TJ, which you should do sooner rather than later so we don't lose  

I wasn’t thinking about it at the time—more trying to make sense of this and following my gut—but the point stands that you probably don’t have Pewter based on your resistance against suspicion. If e!Inquisitor Bip, which I do believe at this point, she could have Pewter today and I bet you know that

[Araris Valerian]

19 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I suppose a world we haven't given much thought to is one where the Inquisitor didn't convert till N3 or N4 in which case we can't really strike Aman off any lists

That’s the world I’m in. C3 is when I suspect the first conversion (attempt) was made. It couldn’t have happened C1 because Kas scanned me accurately, and a NK went through. It could only have happened C2 if Bip is the Inquisitor or there is a Tin spike, but if Bip is the Inquisitor then we don’t know why PMs were up last cycle and they still are. We certainly know the elims burned 2 actions C2, so Aman can’t be a starting elim.

In this world TJ is the only legit Inquisitor candidate.

Edit: @Amanuensis, what is your explanation for PMs being up after 2 dead Tineyes? Especially since there is no way to no what Inquisitor+Mistborn would roll 2/3 cycles ahead.

Edited March 1, 2023 by Araris Valerian

[|TJ|]

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

That’s the world I’m in. C3 is when I suspect the first conversion (attempt) was made. It couldn’t have happened C1 because Kas scanned me accurately, and a NK went through. It could only have happened C2 if Bip is the Inquisitor or there is a Tin spike, but if Bip is the Inquisitor then we don’t know why PMs were up last cycle and they still are. We certainly know the elims burned 2 actions C2, so Aman can’t be a starting elim.

In this world TJ is the only legit Inquisitor candidate.

Yeah, it's not me. Please go re-read mine and Kas interaction. Bro, we don't allow ourselves to sacrifice each other when we're village, you think we'd be arguing in D1 if we're evil? I've been on e!WizKas more than anyone, except maybe Stick. If Stick was PMing any of you regarding suspicion of Kas and mentioned me, that'd be helpful too. 

Maybe we're wrong about the Inquisitor but I'm very certain the team is Bip + Aman now. 

Biplet

[Amanuensis]

7 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

That’s the world I’m in. C3 is when I suspect the first conversion (attempt) was made. It couldn’t have happened C1 because Kas scanned me accurately, and a NK went through. It could only have happened C2 if Bip is the Inquisitor or there is a Tin spike, but if Bip is the Inquisitor then we don’t know why PMs were up last cycle and they still are. We certainly know the elims burned 2 actions C2, so Aman can’t be a starting elim.

In this world TJ is the only legit Inquisitor candidate.

Edit: @Amanuensis, what is your explanation for PMs being up after 2 dead Tineyes?

I haven’t thought about it tbh. Kas, Stick, and Mat were the only players that I frequently PM’d and that stopped when I began suspecting Wiz and Mat

Wiz said Biplet is a Tineye right? I suppose that’s probably true for whoever they converted, whether it was TJ snapping from conversion or Bip being a converted Tineye.

Hm. 

[|TJ|]

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Bip being a converted Tineye

So who is the Inquisitor? Just now you said you believe Biplet is. And now if you believe she's a Converted Tineye why aren't you voting for her? 

[Amanuensis]

3 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

So who is the Inquisitor? Just now you said you believe Biplet is. And now if you believe she's a Converted Tineye why aren't you voting for her? 

It’s a possibility, not what I believe. Hence being preceded by “whether it was TJ snapping from conversion or”

After you insisting on Bip and me I’m wondering if you could have been the convert.

Edited March 1, 2023 by Amanuensis

[|TJ|]

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

It’s a possibility, not what I believe. Hence being preceded by “whether it was TJ snapping from conversion or”

After you insisting on Bip and me I’m wondering if you could have been the convert.

Aman, it's as clear is this, because just now you said you believe in a Fifth/Bip team when Bip was the Inq. 

1. to your POV, If I am the convert, then Fifth is Mistborn, and Araris is Seer, why aren't you voting on Biplet? As she'd be the Inquisitor.

2. If I am not the convert, then she is. And if so, why aren't you voting for her? 

Both the cases, it comes down to this. Why aren't you voting for her???