Mid-Range Game 62: In The Shadow of Ash

[Amanuensis]

@Fifth Scholar what's on your mind home skillet

 

[Mat]

I’m down for the three way tie tbh. JNV is probably a good option even though I don’t love it.

[Araris Valerian]

22 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’m down for the three way tie tbh. JNV is probably a good option even though I don’t love it.

I am most definitely not down for a 3-way tie. This game has vote manip in it, and if we are a turn before exlo then sitting on a tie seems pretty silly.

I would definitely like to hear from @Biplet, @Fifth Scholar, and @JNV. And @The Known Novel has been chilling way too comfortably. Like, we are in very immediate danger of losing this game, and there's not really any discussion going on. Do y'all agree with me that the Inquisitor is most likely in {Mat, TJ}? Think TKN got converted C1? Think JNV is an Inquisitor that pulled Pewter yesterday? (if so, does this have implications regarding the first votes on him?)

I'm kinda at the end of my solving abilities since we really only have the D1 votes to go off of, and those were really only helpful if Fifth was elim.

Also, can people elaborate on their elim Kas reads? Another relevant data point in my village read is that I asked him if e!him could send a conversion my way, and I feel like he would have obliged. 

Edit: I should also note that JNV is going to die regardless if he doesn't vote. So currently votes on him are a bit redundant.

Edited February 26, 2023 by Araris Valerian

[The Wandering Wizard]

On 2/25/2023 at 0:27 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

Not surprised. The consolation is that they can’t be confirmed but that still felt like a waste to me.

Bro math was like my entire endgame strategy, remember xD

Nope. Don't remember

I remember Drake and me doing some math, but I can't remember you doing math. I do like math, but I tend to keep it to the doc.

I don't particularly like a JNV exe either, but they're in my inquisitor short list and the other two are already up for exe. 

I'll try to stay active, but I just got sick >>

[Araris Valerian]

6 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

I don't particularly like a JNV exe either, but they're in my inquisitor short list and the other two are already up for exe. 

Even though JNV is going to get filter-killed as is?

Edit: @StrikerEZ, can you elaborate on how the Mistborn roles are distributed? Do you randomly generate a pair of metals, and then just reroll if you get the exact same pair as the previous cycle? Does have {Tin+Pewter} during C1 prevent {Tin+Pewter} for just C2, or for every future cycle?

On a related note, my reread of the rules suggests that an elim could have the same metal every cycle of the game. The only thing that is forbidden is duplicating a pair of metals. So a lucky InqisiTKN could roll Tin 3 times in a row, but couldn't have the same pair in consecutive cycles.

Edited February 26, 2023 by Araris Valerian

[JNV]

I mean Im not really interested in a threeway tie but I guess Ill vote um does TJ tie it other question like TJ And Matrim seem like good Inquisitor candidates but why hasnt Matrim been one of the stabby stabby candidates 

[|TJ|]

50 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Also, can people elaborate on their elim Kas reads? Another relevant data point in my village read is that I asked him if e!him could send a conversion my way, and I feel like he would have obliged. 

The Bookwyrm e!kill is one of the main reasons basically. No one was village reading Bookwyrm other than Kas on the thread (later cycles) but because Stick and Mat also agreed with the village read to him in PMs, my suspicion is that he probably mistook it as a village consensus that Bookwyrm was village-read and killed them. 

JNV

[Amanuensis]

VC? Mobile rn so can’t

[|TJ|]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

VC? Mobile rn so can’t

Damn, I was thinking you were still on JNV

Uh okay should be 

Aman (2): Aman, Mat
TJ (2): JNV, Araris
JNV (2): Wizard, TJ

Not sure how I feel about voting alongside Wizard, but okay >>

[Amanuensis]

37 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Damn, I was thinking you were still on JNV

Uh okay should be 

Aman (2): Aman, Mat
TJ (2): JNV, Araris
JNV (2): Wizard, TJ

Not sure how I feel about voting alongside Wizard, but okay >>

TY

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I am most definitely not down for a 3-way tie. This game has vote manip in it, and if we are a turn before exlo then sitting on a tie seems pretty silly.

I would definitely like to hear from @Biplet, @Fifth Scholar, and @JNV. And @The Known Novel has been chilling way too comfortably. Like, we are in very immediate danger of losing this game, and there's not really any discussion going on. Do y'all agree with me that the Inquisitor is most likely in {Mat, TJ}? Think TKN got converted C1? Think JNV is an Inquisitor that pulled Pewter yesterday? (if so, does this have implications regarding the first votes on him?)

I'm kinda at the end of my solving abilities since we really only have the D1 votes to go off of, and those were really only helpful if Fifth was elim.

Also, can people elaborate on their elim Kas reads? Another relevant data point in my village read is that I asked him if e!him could send a conversion my way, and I feel like he would have obliged. 

Edit: I should also note that JNV is going to die regardless if he doesn't vote. So currently votes on him are a bit redundant.

Mat brought up a good point to me that if e!Kas knew from C1 I was a thug (granted he might have suspected I was lying to RT him), converting me would have also been a good play for the extra life and my thread control. You can take this with a grain of salt like I am your request to be converted being met with disappointment, but the fact I didn’t might be a decent look for Kas.

Thing is, I didn’t really get suspicious of his slot until Wiz came in. I’ve PM’d v!Wiz a lot these last two games and he’s felt off to me (less eager to solve with me). I told Mat this near the end of C2 and he told me to give Wiz more time, so I dropped it. After we found out Wiz scanned Biplet and found out she’s not the Inquisitor, Mat and I talked more and he’s been very adamant on voting Biplet before Wiz. I explained how Biplet flipping anything but Inquisitor would have no correlation to Wiz’s alignment while flipping Wiz can either guarantee his scans are accurate or that he’s an e!Seeker or Inquisitor on a team with Bip and he still resisted.

Part of me wonders if this is e!Mat trying to get an essential mix in. V!Wiz confirming Araris and Biplet aren’t the Inquisitor narrows the pool significantly, making Bip harder to mix later, and part of me wonders if they decided to convert the Seeker to avoid being found.

e!Mat also shaded me a lot in LG92, even after Striker’s role confirmed me, and I’ve been getting that same vibe this game too.

So yeah. Between the unsnapped, I prefer Mat over TJ. 

ED1T:

TBH rn I’m leaning Fifth as the convert more than Wiz tho. He’s kinda vanished since C1

ED2T:

@Araris Valerian is TJ just null for you?

Edited February 26, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Fifth Scholar]

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

@Fifth Scholar what's on your mind home skillet

 

Distrust of you and Wizard and Mat and an inability to decide between them. I trust my prior v!Mat credences, will better trust @Biplet and Wiz if she can confirm that he has her role correct, and so I think I will go with Aman

I am quite busy, sorry >>

[Amanuensis]

2 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Distrust of you and Wizard and Mat and an inability to decide between them. I trust my prior v!Mat credences, will better trust @Biplet and Wiz if she can confirm that he has her role correct, and so I think I will go with Aman

I am quite busy, sorry >>

Fair  hope things clear up soon

Aman (3): Aman, Mat, Fifth
TJ (2): JNV, Araris
JNV (2): Wizard, TJ

Edited February 26, 2023 by Amanuensis

[The Wandering Wizard]

36 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Thing is, I didn’t really get suspicious of his slot until Wiz came in. I’ve PM’d v!Wiz a lot these last two games and he’s felt off to me (less eager to solve with me). I told Mat this near the end of C2 and he told me to give Wiz more time, so I dropped it. After we found out Wiz scanned Biplet and found out she’s not the Inquisitor, Mat and I talked more and he’s been very adamant on voting Biplet before Wiz. I explained how Biplet flipping anything but Inquisitor would have no correlation to Wiz’s alignment while flipping Wiz can either guarantee his scans are accurate or that he’s an e!Seeker or Inquisitor on a team with Bip and he still resisted.

Quite a bit of that lack is still some LG92 burnout and me getting sick just as I decided to pinch hit >>

I'm fine with these trains I suppose as all are in my inquisitor PoE and who I think are possible converts. Not all in both pools but at least Aman and TJ cross both streams so, JNV Aman

[StrikerEZ]

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Edit: @StrikerEZ, can you elaborate on how the Mistborn roles are distributed? Do you randomly generate a pair of metals, and then just reroll if you get the exact same pair as the previous cycle? Does have {Tin+Pewter} during C1 prevent {Tin+Pewter} for just C2, or for every future cycle?

I randomly roll for metals each cycle. So, having Tin+Pewter C1 would only prevent having that exact combo again for C2. 

Here is the official VC: 

Aman (4): Fifth Scholar, The Wandering Wizard, Amanuensis, Matrim’s Dice
|TJ| (2): JNV, Araris Valerian
JNV (1): |TJ|

And here is your just over 9 hour reminder to get any votes and actions in before rollover! @JNV @Biplet @Fifth Scholar @Araris Valerian @The Known Novel @The Wandering Wizard @|TJ| @Amanuensis @Matrim's Dice 

 

[The Unknown Ajah]

I really don't like the prospect of exing Aman and not getting a flip from the exe two cycles in a row.

Who wants to hop on Mat?

[Mat]

Okay so here’s where I’m at:

Been PMing Wiz and I completely disagree with Aman’s read of him, he feels disengaged and different than typical v!Wiz, yes, but it’s in a very village way, if that makes sense.

I’ve already explained my Aman read (TKN, part of that vote is the chance that he’s not actually a Thug at all, though him self voting doesn’t make much sense with that.) but I lean that a scan there or something would be preferable. I feel he’s slightly misrepresented how I feel about Bip/Wiz but that might not be his fault.

JNV probably needs to get resolved sooner or later and TJ does have a legitimate chance at being the Inquisitor but I personally village read both of them which makes this awkward.

Araris’ last post reads very village to me. No reason he doesn’t ride the chill out as far as he can if he’s evil. The reason I don’t mind the manip is that any manip at this stage is revealing and it’s not exlo right now so if the elims reveal their hand we should be able to tell. Always a chance they play the IKYK but those are findable.

I think the reason this is hard is because we were thrust into an endgamey situation way sooner than usual due to the high volume of C1 kills. Tomorrow should be easier. Theoretically I reread C2 today but that probably won’t happen. Low elim games are also hard because there’s less teammates to tie together.

I guess you can vote me but I echo whoever said that this isn’t LG92 anymore and you can’t just vote me because I’m in the PoE. Read my posts, vote on reads.

Me breaking my own rules: JNV

[Amanuensis]

Aman (3): Aman, Fifth, Wizard,
JNV (2): TJ, Mat
TJ (2): JNV, Araris
Mat (1): TKN

Hm. Mat.

JNV (2):  TJ, Mat
Aman (2): Fifth, Wizard
TJ (2): JNV, Araris
Mat (2): TKN, Aman

ED1T:

Forgot to remove Mat from Aman. Whoops.

ED2T:

Anddd forgot to remove Wizard from JNV. Double whoops.

On the bright side, @|TJ| is very likely to snap with this wagon.

@Biplet's vote is the only one missing 

Edited February 26, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Mat]

For…?

[Amanuensis]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

For…?

I think TKN and TJ are Village. I've said why I prefer you over TJ, and I'm still figuring out how I feel about JNV filter dodging but not self-pressing.

[Mat]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I think TKN and TJ are Village. I've said why I prefer you over TJ, and I'm still figuring out how I feel about JNV filter dodging but not self-pressing.

I guess I can understand that when this post could have word-for-word been from me to you  

[Amanuensis]

Small team games are hard =\ I'm conflicted

ED1T:

Mat has a village read of Wiz, but for a while preferred voting Biplet despite Wiz confirming she's not the Inquisitor. Would be weird if they were teamed, but V/V feels unlikely.

ED2T:

Wiz voting me after voting JNV doesn't inspire a lot of confidence either.

Inquisitor!JNV and convert Wiz? Inquisitor!Mat and convert Wiz? Idk.

Edited February 26, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Biplet]

Busy

JNV

Mat's engagement with the thread and more aggressive tactics read village to me, so I don't want to join that wagon

[Mat]

11 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Mat has a village read of Wiz, but for a while preferred voting Biplet despite Wiz confirming she's not the Inquisitor. Would be weird if they were teamed, but V/V feels unlikely.

Not sure ‘but’ is the right word there  I elim read Bip regardless.

13 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Wiz voting me after voting JNV doesn't inspire a lot of confidence either.

I had that thought about Fifth, but idk

[Amanuensis]

16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Not sure ‘but’ is the right word there  I elim read Bip regardless.

I had that thought about Fifth, but idk

Fifth flashwagon? XD

[Mat]

18 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Fifth flashwagon? XD

I’m not ready for that :P.