Long Game 90: Undiluted Powers

[Cinnamon]

Okay, I am just getting more and more unsure of myself JNV 

[Mat he/him]

The more I see everyone post their reads the list more I realize literally everyone has me in ‘sliiiight elim’ and they’re either really noncommittal about it or they’re voting me with little reasoning

Like there’s something there.

I’ll post reads and a more betterer post this afternoon, I’m busy for the next few hours.

[The Bookwyrm he/him]

Okay.

I am primarily basing my conjectures on the vote count for the previous day. We had five votes for Turtle, and four votes for Stick, both of which we now know are villagers.

I think it's likely that a good number of those voting for both of those people are elims. (A fairly obvious conclusion.)

For Turtle, we had Mat, Shadow, Archivist, Xino, and Stick. The only one of these voters we've identified is Stick, and they were a villager. 

I went and re-read Day 2, and there was very little justification (in my opinion) for why Turtle was suspicious. Shadowblob said that Turtle only seemed to be focusing on their image, and that was something an elim would do. Archivist jumped on the bandwagon without adding any evidence of their own, simply saying they agreed with Shadow. And, as the day got closer to ending, more and more people jumped on the Turtle bandwagon without any justification (Xino, Mat, Stick). Granted, we now know that Stick was village, so there's a chance that Turtle seemed suspicious enough that other villagers were convinced as well.

So I have my eye on Shadow and Archivist.

For Stick, we have Wizard, Illwei, Silver, and Dannex. We now know that Wizard was an elim. The evidence given against Stick by Silver was the fact that Stick had changed votes a bunch without reasoning in a previous cycle. That seemed kind of flimsy to me. Wizard didn't provide much reasoning of his own, and we now know that they were an elim. Illwei voted Stick without much reasoning, probably based on personal suspicions and that of others. Dannex seemed the same to me. 

Out of these, Silver seems the most suspicious to me, based on a gut feeling as I was re-reading their posts.

I'm not going to cast a vote quite yet, because I want to see what other people think and how they vote, but my main leads right now are on Shadow, Archivist, and Silver.

And I've said this in the past; all of it is subject to change.

I may do a read of other players later.

Edited October 29, 2022 by The Bookwyrm

[shadow1 she/her]

2 hours ago, The Bookwyrm said:

Okay.

I am primarily basing my conjectures on the vote count for the previous day. We had five votes for Turtle, and four votes for Stick, both of which we now know are villagers.

I think it's likely that a good number of those voting for both of those people are elims. (A fairly obvious conclusion.)

For Turtle, we had Mat, Shadow, Archivist, Xino, and Stick. The only one of these voters we've identified is Stick, and they were a villager. 

I went and re-read Day 2, and there was very little justification (in my opinion) for why Turtle was suspicious. Shadowblob said that Turtle only seemed to be focusing on their image, and that was something an elim would do. Archivist jumped on the bandwagon without adding any evidence of their own, simply saying they agreed with Shadow. And, as the day got closer to ending, more and more people jumped on the Turtle bandwagon without any justification (Xino, Mat, Stick). Granted, we now know that Stick was village, so there's a chance that Turtle seemed suspicious enough that other villagers were convinced as well.

So I have my eye on Shadow and Archivist.

For Stick, we have Wizard, Illwei, Silver, and Dannex. We now know that Wizard was an elim. The evidence given against Stick by Silver was the fact that Stick had changed votes a bunch without reasoning in a previous cycle. That seemed kind of flimsy to me. Wizard didn't provide much reasoning of his own, and we now know that they were an elim. Illwei voted Stick without much reasoning, probably based on personal suspicions and that of others. Dannex seemed the same to me. 

Out of these, Silver seems the most suspicious to me, based on a gut feeling as I was re-reading their posts.

I'm not going to cast a vote quite yet, because I want to see what other people think and how they vote, but my main leads right now are on Shadow, Archivist, and Silver.

And I've said this in the past; all of it is subject to change.

I may do a read of other players later.

I don't really understand how you're narrowing your pools here or using the vote count in any way. You didn't give any reason about why you narrowed the turtle voter pool to being most sus of me and archivist at all, you just listen that everyone was joining without justification. Why single us out?

Similar with Stick, you say here that no one really had reasons. But you think silver seems the most suspicious but only based on gut.

So I guess I don't get this point. You're not really using vote data at all from the looks of it?

 

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The more I see everyone post their reads the list more I realize literally everyone has me in ‘sliiiight elim’ and they’re either really noncommittal about it or they’re voting me with little reasoning

Like there’s something there.

I’ll post reads and a more betterer post this afternoon, I’m busy for the next few hours.

Well if it's any consolation, what I lack in reasoning I make up for in commitment

Edited October 29, 2022 by shadow1
adding a reply

[The Bookwyrm he/him]

42 minutes ago, shadow1 said:

I don't really understand how you're narrowing your pools here or using the vote count in any way. You didn't give any reason about why you narrowed the turtle voter pool to being most sus of me and archivist at all, you just listen that everyone was joining without justification. Why single us out?

Similar with Stick, you say here that no one really had reasons. But you think silver seems the most suspicious but only based on gut.

So I guess I don't get this point. You're not really using vote data at all from the looks of it?

Okay, I see what you're saying here. And it's a fair point. I don't particularly like relying on a gut feeling for suspicions, but it kind of just...happens. I know that doesn't make sense and is not at all convincing.

The reason that it seemed to me that you and Archivist were the most suspicious was because that both of you, at least in my eyes, seemed like an elim who was making a false justification for voting a villager. It was kind of flimsy. You posted here:

Quote

This is a tonal read but I'm voting Turtle. I get the feeling they are trying to document an ostensible process of being interested in solving and interested in the game because a few times they have put forward the setup of solving without any outcome or real process. In other words, I think they are more interested in their appearance than result (also ex here). It comes across as nervous.

And while it somewhat makes sense, I don't think that it's enough to justify a vote. We also know that Turtle was a villager now, and that seems like reason for suspicion.

It could also be that you and Archivist had a legitimate suspicion, and just happened to vote the wrong way at the wrong time. I'm not fully discounting it as a possibility; that's why I haven't voted yet.

As for Silvereye, it's the same situation. Of those voting for Stick they were the only one who tried to justify their action, but without any solid justification. And that seems like elim behavior to me. It's possible that Silver was just in the wrong place at the wrong time, and that the elim is someone else, but like I said, my gut is pointing me towards Silver.

Also:

1 hour ago, shadow1 said:

But you think silver seems the most suspicious but only based on gut.

Why are you accusing me of doing this, when here you do the exact same thing? In defending your Turtle vote when Dannex questioned you, you said:

Quote

I don't think they're particularly incriminating either. It's a gut read.

You quite literally used the same justification earlier, so you shouldn't be too baffled that someone else would use it as well.

If I'm not really defending my position and am instead just re-stating what I've already said, I apologize. Sometimes it's hard to communicate exactly what I'm thinking.

[shadow1 she/her]

2 hours ago, The Bookwyrm said:

Okay, I see what you're saying here. And it's a fair point. I don't particularly like relying on a gut feeling for suspicions, but it kind of just...happens. I know that doesn't make sense and is not at all convincing.

The reason that it seemed to me that you and Archivist were the most suspicious was because that both of you, at least in my eyes, seemed like an elim who was making a false justification for voting a villager. It was kind of flimsy. You posted here:

And while it somewhat makes sense, I don't think that it's enough to justify a vote. We also know that Turtle was a villager now, and that seems like reason for suspicion.

It could also be that you and Archivist had a legitimate suspicion, and just happened to vote the wrong way at the wrong time. I'm not fully discounting it as a possibility; that's why I haven't voted yet.

As for Silvereye, it's the same situation. Of those voting for Stick they were the only one who tried to justify their action, but without any solid justification. And that seems like elim behavior to me. It's possible that Silver was just in the wrong place at the wrong time, and that the elim is someone else, but like I said, my gut is pointing me towards Silver.

Also:

Why are you accusing me of doing this, when here you do the exact same thing? In defending your Turtle vote when Dannex questioned you, you said:

You quite literally used the same justification earlier, so you shouldn't be too baffled that someone else would use it as well.

If I'm not really defending my position and am instead just re-stating what I've already said, I apologize. Sometimes it's hard to communicate exactly what I'm thinking.

I obviously don't think it's bad to vote on gut. You just said "I am primarily basing my conjectures on the vote count for the previous day." I don't see that as connected if you're just making a gut read at the end of it.

As for turtle, whatever, you're entitled to your opinion but my suspicion was sincere and I don't know what suggests otherwise.

[Illwei]

3 hours ago, shadow1 said:

but my suspicion was sincere and I don't know what suggests otherwise.

the supposed lack of care surrounding everything implied by your lack of participation in the cycle and only gut read on turtle

[shadow1 she/her]

4 hours ago, Illwei said:

the supposed lack of care surrounding everything implied by your lack of participation in the cycle and only gut read on turtle

I'm quite capable of being sincerely careless and clueless, if you'd believe it

[Cinnamon]

I just want to say, I am really confused as to what the tineye message even is. Are they meant to be clues for us to decode? Is there specific guidance to what is posted? Are the graphs a normal thing? 
 

I have been scratching my head about this for a good while now trying to find meaning in the words.

so far I’ve found … nothing! 
I am so confused.

edit: is the tineye just messing with us??

Edited October 30, 2022 by Cinnamon

[Illwei]

The tineye message isn't meant to be a code, don't know why you assume it would be. It's simply info (useless, albeit)

[Archer he/him]

(Shinging) Shadow

Shadow started the D2 Turtle wagon. Normally I'd give village credit for starting a wagon, but Turtle feels like the kind of vote the elims wouldn't think would take off, so it looked like a vote park. I could be convinced to do Silvereye instead on the basis of Wiz's vote placement indicates an Elim preference for the Stick wagon, making it more likely elim votes can be found there, but my default is to sus the more active and experienced player. Archivist and JNV are the other two edit: voters on my radar, but again, unfamiliar playstyle to me and JNV is being sussed by Shadow. Who is also sussing Mat, which I don't get. 

Edited October 30, 2022 by Archer

[Throw TheLiving Silverware he/him/il/lui]

Mat (2): Illwei, Shadow

Shadow (1): Archer

Bookwyrm(1): Silvereye

 

I kept my vote on Stick D2 because her explanations didn't full satisfy me when reading it, and so I still considered her more suspicious than most other players in the game. And certainly much more suspicious than Turtle (the only other candidate to exe by EoD). I feel a bit stupid now 

 

Also, am I really the only one who finds suspicious this D2 interaction between the late Wizard and Bookwyrm? Why would an elim feel the need to check if someone is instructed in the elim doc? The only way for it to make sense, in my opinion, is an attempt at distancing between two elims.

If anyone has another interpretation of those messages, feel free to share it.

[Mat he/him]

Uh, hi, sorry I didn’t do anything yesterday :P. The hours got away from me. I have church type things to do for awhile but the last two hours of the turn I should be around for sure. Sorry.

[Archer he/him]

50 minutes ago, Just a Silvereye said:

Also, am I really the only one who finds suspicious this D2 interaction between the late Wizard and Bookwyrm? Why would an elim feel the need to check if someone is instructed in the elim doc? The only way for it to make sense, in my opinion, is an attempt at distancing between two elims.

If anyone has another interpretation of those messages, feel free to share it.

What made you change your mind from your initial interpretation of the exchange?: Wizard defending Bookwyrm mid-D1, then voting him now, then unvoting him, also makes me think Wizard and Bookwyrm are not both elims.

Wiz posts this three hours before rollover:

Quote

I've been busy, I don't have time for much right now, nor much time for reads, so I think I'll let my vote stay. 

Nope nevermind Turtle. I don't really want to join a train, but I also don't like killing a new person. HHHRRGN. Nope, just gonna let it sit.

Xino's post immediately afterwards helpfully notes that the leading wagons were 2-Book, 2-Ash, followed by a bunch of one person wagons. Wiz, who exits the thread until the Night after that, evidently felt comfortable with that state of affairs, implying v!Bookwyrm. 

By the way, it's 2-2 because Shining unvotes Ash, so Shining-Book not e-e. 

If you reread that stretch, it's worth also noting that Illwei is commenting without becoming involved in the voting, which is a similar approach to their last elim game. 

 

[The Bookwyrm he/him]

I'm also going to vote for Shadow.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

I'm not liking Illwei’s tone. It isn't necessarily elim, but something feels weird about it. 

[xinoehp512 he/him]

Well procrastination has got the best of me. No time to study the thread so... Bookwyrm.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Hi everyone, post coming, been in the works for a while, but I just wanted to say I'm here.

Double posting if no one posts.

[dannnex male]

I don't like shadow as an exe tbh. I think most of their slightly-elim-leaning behavior can be explained by them just being new. 

JNV on the other hand, is triggering all the alarm bells. They've posted one time this cycle, a long vote analysis of D2 with an ISO of TWW at the end, but they didn't even have a reads list in there. No vote at the end either. What was the point of all that analysis if you don't draw any conclusions from it. Feels like it was just a post to make it seem like they're trying to solve the game.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

I'm actually like running out of time this is crazy.

Is it better to post like 2/3 of my thoughts now or post the completed thoughts next cycle?

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Hi everyone, post coming, been in the works for a while, but I just wanted to say I'm here.

Double posting if no one posts.

^

Except for the part about me having worked on a post :P. I… don’t really have an excuse for not backreading, but I suppose I just chose to do other things :P.

General Thoughts:

• shadow is an elim lean for me, but I’m having trouble justifying it, yknow? I’d have to check and see if anyone has really defended her all that much. But it sorta seems like not? In my head either people elim lean her or say nothing about her, it’s like with me. Probably will end up self pressing here but I wish I didn’t have to ig
• Archer’s JNV arguments I can buy past my desire to effort clear them I think lol. Like I mentioned earlier that I thought their fixation on me for the their big reads post seemed planned, and there’s the thought that them backreading themself early game was weird.
• Cin I’ve elim read the entire game and there’s definitely reasons to doubt the claim but dang it I buy the village effort this turn. Even still if they are flipped I wouldn’t mind.
• Illwei is like the same but I’m more willing to get rid of the effort clear. She’s had contradiction after contradiction with xino and that thing I mentioned today and idk
• Still v read Bookwyrm but I couldn’t tell you why off the top of my head
• As village as I read Devo I think Archer’s way of pushing things is weird. Which. I agree with a lot of his points so idk what I’m saying >>

There’s a peak into the mess that is my thoughts. No notes were referred back to in the making of this post :P.

@dannnnnnex shadow isn’t new to forum mafia games, she’s an off-site player. Her second game here.

@Shining Silhouette better to post 2/3 now imo

JNV as an option I prefer over shadow but I’ll still self pres if I need to

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just a quick reminder that there are under 25 minutes left!

[Mat he/him]

@The Bookwyrm how do you feel about JNV?

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Decided to post my thoughts on the game, VCs, and see where I stand in general. Meant to post this longgg ago but things kept getting in the way, so apologies. 

D1 (things that stood out to me):

Spoiler

TUN

I still like TUN's posts here. The self-vote, the easy banter, the nonchalance, especially admitting to being a "rampant spiked murderer"...I think Illwei's thoughts from last night apply to TUN's behavior. 

Quote

this at the very least implies comfortability with the thread (not neccesarily AI) but also some level of themselves being the normal-being village.

Personally I feel it's not easy to fake that attitude over a longer period of time and I think TUN's been consistent. We'll see when we get to the other turn though. 

Later, also, he argues that not everyone should vote 

JNV

I like their confidence in declaring themselves anti-poke vote, their candidness in looking back at previous games- also the way they ask "do the votes right now rub anyone else the wrong way", the questioning of general voting trends feels Vil to me

Quote

Do the votes right now rub anyone else the wrong way cause like the leading train weve got culture shock retaliation and Kasimir and most of the votes are reasionless or jokes or nonsense except Conquestor thanks Conquestor really appreciate you and I think Ive finally gotten ovre my instinctual suspicion of you problem 

LIkie goin through the votes in roder we got poke joke joke poke poke culture shock poke poke poke joke actually justifiable reason thanks Conquestor retaliation retaliation poke Kasimir doing things for kasimir reasions blank vote like I dont think its necessarily unresasonable for D1 but the volume of blank or otherwise meaningless votes just feels a bit wobbly honestly kinda symptomatic of the social mood we got going on here like theres RP which is great Im very pro  RP theres banter which is also great nad funny and such and thats about it like were just sorta vibing and thats cool too

Wiz

Votes and unvotes Bookwyrm, then votes Turtle.

Actually think this is a point for Bookwyrm. I don't really feel like Wiz would be one to target a teammate as a poke vote D1 when there're so many other players to target. But it could've been coached, who knows.

Cinnamon

I like her question about voting. Feels genuine. 

Quote

Question: do you have to vote? It seems that it is an optional thing, but I would have thought everyone should do it

Illwei

Says "Xino is a Villager", then backtracks when questioned and says "I actually think I don't believe it at all".

Also,

Quote

Devotary is village, lock it in

this one i actually mean ok :P.

Really baffling to me, honestly.

Danex

Don't like the sword vote at all, tbh. But it's NAI for me ig

Devo/Archer

Votes and unvotes Conq, then 

Mat

I was reading back through the rhyme and predictions I made early in the game about the first four posters and I thought this was funny :P.

I said: 

Quote

Mat: Probably going to get voted out for absolutely no reason

And then Mat just posted,

On 10/29/2022 at 10:59 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

The more I see everyone post their reads the list more I realize literally everyone has me in ‘sliiiight elim’ and they’re either really noncommittal about it or they’re voting me with little reasoning

I must've gotten in everyone's subconscious early on

D1 VC

• Ash (4): Bookwyrm<1>, Kas<3>, Shining<3>, Devo<2>, Shining<4>, Cinnamon, Xino<2>, Bookwyrm<3>,
• Xino (3): Conq, Ash<3>, Mat<3>, Kas <5>
• TUN (1): Shining<1>, _Stick_<2>, TUN
• Silvereye (1): Mat<1>,_Stick_<3>
• Mat (1): Silvereye<1>, Danex
• Stick (0): Xino<1>
• Turtle (0): Wiz<2>
• Kas (0): Bookwyrm<2>
• Illwei (0): Shining<2>
• Danex (0): Kas<2>
• Wiz (0): Mat<2>
• Conq (0): Devo<1>
• Alv (0): Stick<1>
• Cinnamon (0): Ash<1>
• Devo (0): Kas<1> 
• Bookwyrm (0): Wiz<1>, Ash<2>,Kas<4>

N1 (thank goodness I don't need to do a VC again here :P.):

Spoiler

Xino 

Comments on Ash's death

Quote

...Well shoot now I kind of wish I had been exed.

Easily faked, but my gut is tempted to take it at face value

Illwei

In response to Xino says

Quote

Don't worry there's always tomorrow

Which I like, actually.

But Illwei seems a little ungrounded in my eyes

Archivist

Wonders why people voted Ash

Quote

Wow. People were really piling on him at the end there too. Was there a specific reason than people voted him?

Cinnamon

Quote

I originally voted Ash because he voted me. I was quite confused as to why he would do that and thought it elim like behavior.

I have since learned that he was voting me to gauge my reaction, not out of spite or careful planning. 

This feels good to me. I really disliked being voted on my first game (even more so my elim gam, but that's another story), so this feels genuine

JNV

Has thoughts on Kas's graphs

Quote

Look you dont clear Kasimir for putting in effort you clear Kasimir for being Kasimir and just having the nice vibes and stuff like Im going to trust Kasimir in every game just cause thats how my brain thinks kinda like how Ill suspect Novel and Danex in every game and eighty percent of the time Ill be vindicated on Kasimir and the other twenty Ill vow to adjust my thought processes but wont cause next game Ill just end up trusting them agian besides like the thought of effort clearing someone is just kinda weird inherently like I know the ideal villager puts in effort and tries and stuff but just look at a normal villager that doesnt really happen effort is a way of life not an alignment indicator and strongly deviating from normal amounts of effort is the indicator not the effort in and of itself

Once again JNV feels independent and I like this

Danex

Quote

alright nvm i’m effort-clearing kas now

vil!kas all the way

Could see this as prep for the NK, honestly

Kas

I miss his graphs

Mat

This post felt good and earnest to me

Quote

I'm realizing now that Conq and Stick both had votes, but when I mentioned them it wasn't because of their votes. That's... an honest coincidence xD I mentioned them because of their relation to xino (which is apparent in the parenthesis after I mentioned them). I mentioned Bookwyrm because it was my intention that they survived, and Ash because he was the other train with multiple votes.

Does that make sense? I get how that can be confusing lol.

My belief in Mat's earnestness is going to get me killed someday :P.

D2: (unfinished)

Spoiler

Bookwyrm

Quote

Well.

That was unexpected.

Kas analyses were helpful, and I am sad to see them gone.

This is the second time he's made a post like this.

Can't tell if this is genuine or not, though. Book has been giving me a generally a bad feeling this game just because of how polished his posts have been. I can tell a lot of thought goes into his thoughts work (really silhouette you almost said that? :P.)

Danex

Stick says this:

Quote

Wasn't trying to pull a Baker, but it's a shame they killed Kas despite me and Dannex seeding some paranoia in-thread.

Which is a point for Danex after Stick flipped Vil I think. Or not. But leaning towards yes atm

Illwei

Quote

Guys killing a loud player with influence is a very kas-like move to make.... i think he might be an elim.....

Random, once more drawing attention without giving many thoughts.

TUN

Votes the GM. Villagery to me though

Wiz

Posts a reads list

Spoiler

Cinnamon 

Archivist, Silvereye

Bookwyrm

Silvereye

Very very very tempted to outright clear Silvereye based on this one post

Quote

I have good vibes about Shining Silhouette

Who says someone's full username after almost a full week of playing? I don't think someone in the elim doc. Doubt this is coached, it's too random of a thing to be coached. But I really like this

Stopping here to look at VC, rollover's approaching so I'll finish this later.

Apparantly later is next cycle. More will be edited in a re-post after rollover

VC: 

• Turtle (5): Shadow, Archivist, Xino, Stick, Mat<2>
• Stick (4): Silvereye, Wiz<2>, TUN, Danex, Illwei
• Mat (2): Stick, JNV, Cinnamon
• Bookwyrm (2): Wiz<1>, Devo<1>, Shining<1>
• Xino (1): Illwei
• Devo (1): Alv
• Shadow (1): Xino
• Cinnamon (1): Bookwyrm<2>, Mat<1>
• Xino (0): Bookwyrm<1>

 

Gut Reads (cause I didn't have time to actually think through my work above :P.)

This part was made really really quickly cause time is running out so I expect this will be revised after I finish my actual post but here's a jumble of my gut reads. After I figure my reads out I'll add them as tentative green/red to the VCs above

Silvereye, Mat

TUN, Dannex, Archivst

Xino, Archer/Devo, Cinnamon, Conq

Illwei, JNV, Shadow, Bookwyrm

 

WHY IS THERE ANOTHER FOUR-WAY TIE

I'm fine with either Bookwyrm or JNV here.

I guess I vote Bookwyrm after looking back on my thoughts

But if anyone feels strongly about E!JNV I might be convinced

 

Current VC: 

Mat (2): Illwei, Shadow

Shadow (2): Archer, Bookwyrm

Bookwyrm (3): Silvereye, Xino, Shining

JNV (2): Mat, Dannex

Edited October 30, 2022 by Shining Silhouette
added my vote to VC

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Shining Silhouette said:

But if anyone feels strongly about E!JNV I might be convinced

I can’t say I do

shadow, I’m trusting past me and my v!Bookwyrm read and voting here. I think the tie is fine though I don’t feel as strong about this as I did with Stick.

I’ll read your spoiler boxes during the Night turn provided I survive