Long Game 78: The Legend of Zelda: The False Heroes

[Quivil]

2 hours ago, Archer said:

Tani (who I thought had a stats wiki, but I was mistaken. Also they seem to be engaged in a gambit right now)

So was I supposed to make a stats wiki? I can go back and make one if you like, but it'll take a while. Or I can give my SE stats best I remember in-thread.

Gambit? I don't know what you mean please help me someone? Examples? Explanation? Something? And no I'm not joking.

Edited June 29, 2021 by Tani
underlined "so was I supposed to make a stats wiki?" and will you please answer this time?

[Archer he/him]

16 minutes ago, Tani said:

So was I supposed to make a stats wiki? I can go back and make one if you like, but it'll take a while. Or I can give my SE stats best I remember in-thread.

Gambit? I don't know what you mean please help me someone? Examples? Explanation? Something? And no I'm not joking.

You do not need to make a stats wiki. That is unnecessary and unexpected of anyone. The point of confusion is I went to someone's About Me page once and they had a link to another site where they played mafia and kept records of all their games including alignment, death time, game notes etc. I misremembered and thought it was you, and had thought it might be useful to look at. I apologize for the confusion. 

If you're a villager, killing you is a waste of the exe. It brings the elims closer to winning by shrinking our team and gives them more opportunities to kill our conf goods at Night, because the game continues longer. So either you're an elim bluffing to avoid getting exed, a conf good bluffing to avoid the NK, or a genuinely busy player who should be using OOC opportunities to leave the game, such as pinch hitters. It makes no sense to exe you based on a face value reading of your request. So either you're running a gambit by bluffing or should be talking to the Impartial Moderator for assistance. I can't tell which it is. 

[Quivil]

Every time I ask to not die, I die. In LG74 when I asked to die, I didn't. So yes, kind of a gambit, but also not. I care about this game sorta, but don't really care if I die or not, partially because I'm mixing it up with the MR.

Basically: You caught me. Now you should kill me.

Also, just because I do sneaky stuff doesn't mean I'm not vil.

Edited June 29, 2021 by Tani

[attic_gremlin]

Everyone is making some good points about Drake. Drake gave illwei a village read on day 1, and now they're defending the same person illwei and araris went out of their way to defend. Better yet, they're targeting TJ, a player many of us seem to have a village read on. TJ got a vote from illwei in one of the past cycles, too, which is another thing to consider. 

I'd also like to point out that Drake predicted e!Rhoam. While it could have been a good deduction or even just a lucky guess, they haven't yet said what made them think that. Personally, I'd like an explanation. 

In the same post in which Drake reminded us that they called e!rhoam, they suggest that everyone with a durian sends it to the person they think might be link or zelda. This plan rubs me the wrong way. The people who requested durians (if every player was thinking strategically) should have been those with strong or important roles, and if Link and/or Zelda are properly in "deep cover", then none of us should have any idea who either of them are. Strong roles getting rid of powerful items on a hunch about who might be zelda or link seems like an ill-thought-out plan. For now, I'm keeping my vote on TUO, but I'd like to hear more from Drake as well. 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

19 hours ago, |TJ| said:

• How was my tone different?
• I did not say that I always PM with Kas and Illwei. I said I *only* PM with Kas and Illwei. Besides, the reason I asked for a PM with Kas was partially as a joke to annoy him, and partially because when me and Kas PM, we're always gamesolving, and when me and Illwei PM we're talking about the most random things with a little gamesolving sprinkled in between. And I believe I've already mentioned that Kas plays very rarely nowadays, so me preferring a PM with Kas in a limited PM isn't nearly as malicious as you're making it out to be. 
• I don't get this either. What was I trying to downplay or undervalue? And more importantly why would I be doing that as Illwei's teammate?

 

• Describing tones specifically is kind hard, but the relevant difference I would say is "less game solvey" than usual. A lot more of your posts seemed focused on other things. Which is not inherently bad, but compared to my understanding of your playstyle, I would call it alignment indicative. I think I've commented about this before but idk.
• I am inclined to believe you on that particular count.
• So here is the particular comment that stuck out as elimmish:

Quote

I - aren't you giving a lot of weight to what Illwei seemingly posted jokingly? That's... a lot of effort put in to something said so nonchalantly. 

• My issue here is that, like, I'd get it if you were saying "be cautious of IKYK" or "I think Illwei was actually lying" or anything along those lines but that isn't how this reads. It feels much more like you are genuinely just trying to devalue analysis from a dead eliminator, or at least that particular analysis (which incidentally was Ashbringer trying to figure out who might have told Illwei to kill Kas, which didn't narrow things down that much but then I don't think every player on that list actually would have suggested something like that), which I don't think is a great look.

Quote

I was feeling a tiny bit better about you from posts in the last cycle, but this vote is very very weird. 

So I was looking at you as well, when I was re-reading Araris' posts from previous cycles and I found something interesting. 

Refer to this post from C1: 
Drake's read post has a total of 2 elim reads - Steel and Pyro.

Note that at this point in time, Illwei is leading in votes, and Drake is the first player to make it 2-2. But besides the point, why would you choose to RNG a vote when you have 2 elim reads? And on top of that, your RNG chose one of your only two elim reads? How likely is that? I feel like RNG is a very easy reason you gave to protect Illwei's train from running even further. Drake. I'm not comfortable with everyone running away with TUO train.

TJ did you read this 

 

 

 

Quote

Alright I finally got around to looking at the thread, took some more notes, but there's something I want to address. This whole game, Drake has been suspicious of me for seemingly no reason. Voted on me first turn, and continues to express suspicion of me. Drake would you like to give some actual reasoning for why I'm an elim read to you?

I don’t think my read is particularly unexplained? I named D1 posts I found questionable from you, and specifically why they seemed questionable. If I had that much more of an explanation than “gut” to go off of I’d probably have voted for you on cycles after D1 by now, but I don’t and haven’t... Is there a reason you feel sufficiently threatened from appearing on my suspicion list to justify a vote?

2 hours ago, attic_gremlin said:

Everyone is making some good points about Drake. Drake gave illwei a village read on day 1, and now they're defending the same person illwei and araris went out of their way to defend. Better yet, they're targeting TJ, a player many of us seem to have a village read on. TJ got a vote from illwei in one of the past cycles, too, which is another thing to consider. 

I'd also like to point out that Drake predicted e!Rhoam. While it could have been a good deduction or even just a lucky guess, they haven't yet said what made them think that. Personally, I'd like an explanation. 

In the same post in which Drake reminded us that they called e!rhoam, they suggest that everyone with a durian sends it to the person they think might be link or zelda. This plan rubs me the wrong way. The people who requested durians (if every player was thinking strategically) should have been those with strong or important roles, and if Link and/or Zelda are properly in "deep cover", then none of us should have any idea who either of them are. Strong roles getting rid of powerful items on a hunch about who might be zelda or link seems like an ill-thought-out plan. For now, I'm keeping my vote on TUO, but I'd like to hear more from Drake as well. 

Mhm I'm contrary like that  sorry not sorry

I don't really have any proof for this, but FYI I kinda predicted eliminator Rhoam before the game started  This was based on the fact that we know several confirmed village and eliminator roles and some conjecture about what roles it would actually make sense to give to eliminators, and also some thoroughly shaky conjecture from the signup thread introduction about the Yiga "being able to impersonate anyone."

By far the most important roles are Mipha, Zelda, and Link. And Mipha is dead. I could maybe see a case for Urbosa staying protected, but otherwise, yes, I think a decent chance of eventually getting a Durian to Zelda/Link is more valuable than protecting whatever other roles we have. Remember that we literally can't lose if Zelda and Link are still alive, and that the elims probably don't have a means to deal with protects since that was literally what Kohga was for, and that if this process keeps happening the odds are actually pretty good that a Zelda or Link will get at least one Durian. It also runs the risk of putting Durian in the hands of eliminators if people's trust reads are off base, but if somebody survived an attack in this way it would kinda implicate them regardless.

I appreciate that you are putting thought into this beyond just the TUO train this cycle, in any case. You get some village points in my book.

12 hours ago, Archer said:

Good correction. And good catch! I'd misremembered and thought the Pyro vote was in defense of TUO, not Illwei
I think the RNG is more suspicious than the Pyro vote. I was on the Pyro train too, but for Drake, in context, it looks like a way to subtly move on from a teammate's exe (TUO or Illwei, take your pick). I think he faked RNGing.

Ok, but saying an elim might do something isn't good enough. Do you think it is actually more likely that elim!Drake would do that than village!Drake? Because I'm pretty sure it's actually the opposite. Idk do you think Illwei was in any real danger at that point? I kinda don't. My main concern was conslidating the vote, which was still very scattered quite a ways into the cycle. It certainly didn't help that Araris was being less aggressive than usual about applying pressure in the votes.

Quote

If I didn't know better, I'd swear you two were distancing though. After TUO flips elim, Drake is the obvious next choice given their defence of them today, so I'd rather take the bird in hand than risk what is see as like a 20% of failure? I think I'm 99% sure of TUO, 80% on Drake. Drake is avoiding the logical courses of action in favour of stretched reasoning, but he's doing it so blatantly that it almost gives me pause.

As far as I know, Drake has some Mighty Bananas, by the way. Yay, PM was useful for something. At this point, it's a good enough case that I suspect Link will take care of them tonight. I'd rather not split the vote and have the elims obviously hammer but manage to use the Night turns that buys them to kill our conf goods. 

Best elim team guess right now is TUO (defence by two elims), Drake (RNG, revealed my PM, defended elims), Tani (who I thought had a stats wiki, but I was mistaken. Also they seem to be engaged in a gambit right now), and probably one less active person to bring us to six. Purple gave me bad vibes for their vote on me; seemed kinda like the elim doc suggested it. 

I mean, I don't dispute that one of us is probably indulging in stretched reasoning 

Also apparently a TJ vote is going nowhere so there isn't much point in keeping it, even if the TUO bandwagon weren't apparently a foregone conclusion. People are saying they trust TJ, and I also don't necessarily want to discount that, but then someone please tell me why  because I still don't right now.

Tani @Tani. My reasons are thus:

• They switched their vote back onto TUO after making the self-vote, which to me makes it seem rather less likely that the request was in fact sincere.
• They were in the running for the execution last cycle, and then the pressure quickly backed off of them quickly. Quickly enough to make me suspect people were defending them.
• They are probably the best intersection available to me between "people I suspect to a significant degree" and "people others might actually vote for"

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

I am alive! I have the time to read through the thread, but not the enthusiasm. If someone could do a quick thread summary, that would be nice, but I could just suck it up and read it.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

28 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

I am alive! I have the time to read through the thread, but not the enthusiasm. If someone could do a quick thread summary, that would be nice, but I could just suck it up and read it.

Sure, here you are:

• Everyone is voting for TUO again
• I find this state of affairs very disappointing
• Archer finds my disappointment disappointing whereas TJ and Steel don't but are voting for me for other reasons
• Tani is claiming they want to be voted up, to varying degrees of convincingness

Or to summarize in another way:

Vote Tally
The Unknown Order (7): Archer, Ashbringer, Dannex, Tani, YeetAroundABush, attic_gremlin, quillinthestars
DrakeMarshall (2): Steeldancer, |TJ|
Tani (1): DrakeMarshall

I recommend you read though, if you can dig up the motivation. It's only 1.5ish pages.

Edited June 30, 2021 by DrakeMarshall

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

34 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

The Unknown Order (7): Archer, Ashbringer, Dannex, Tani, YeetAroundABush, attic_gremlin, quillinthestars

wOW that’s a lot of votes. Thanks for the summary, Drake

The problem with this game is that I legitimately have no hard suspicions. I think I missed somewhere why everyone is voting out TUO, and no one else is raising any red flags. Except maybe Tani for being kinda abrasive, but I mean… it’s Tani. Y’know.

[Steeldancer he/him]

3 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I don’t think my read is particularly unexplained? I named D1 posts I found questionable from you, and specifically why they seemed questionable. If I had that much more of an explanation than “gut” to go off of I’d probably have voted for you on cycles after D1 by now, but I don’t and haven’t... Is there a reason you feel sufficiently threatened from appearing on my suspicion list to justify a vote?

Said posts more than fell underneath "getting back into the swing of things." I completely acknowledge that they were suspicious, but you seem to be the only one not giving me the benefit of the doubt when it's more than clear that I wasn't used to playing again yet, and was still trying to find a playstyle. 
Since then, of course, I'm feeling a lot more confident in my playstyle, so would you like to point something out that wasn't day one that was suspicious? Its not so much that I feel threatened by you, but rather that I find the way you express your suspicion of me to be suspicious. Thus I voted you. 

[Archer he/him]

Feel free to PAFO this, @Biplet, but am I correct in thinking that the only way Duriens can change hands between players right now is if they're given to one of the players who votes off someone holding one during the Day exe? Item passing isn't in this game and transferring a Durien through a kill done at night doesn't apply here, ya? 

Edited June 30, 2021 by Archer

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

52 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Said posts more than fell underneath "getting back into the swing of things." I completely acknowledge that they were suspicious, but you seem to be the only one not giving me the benefit of the doubt when it's more than clear that I wasn't used to playing again yet, and was still trying to find a playstyle. 
Since then, of course, I'm feeling a lot more confident in my playstyle, so would you like to point something out that wasn't day one that was suspicious? Its not so much that I feel threatened by you, but rather that I find the way you express your suspicion of me to be suspicious. Thus I voted you. 

If you agree that those posts were suspicious, then I'm not sure why you take issue with my finding them suspicious 

40 minutes ago, Archer said:

Feel free to PAFO this, @Biplet, but am I correct in thinking that the only way Duriens can change hands between players right now is if they're given to one of the players who votes off someone holding one during the Day exe? Item passing isn't in this game and transferring a Durien through a kill done at night doesn't apply here, ya? 

Interesting, you seem to be right that passing items is not something that actually comes up in the rules.

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

I doubt it matters, but I read through the thread and have seen some pretty convincing arguments from TUO

[WhiffleWaffles she/her]

I think I'm going to pull my vote in for TUO for the time being. Everyone seems to be pointing to them and I'm not sure what else to think. 

[purplewhiteandgold she/her]

I need to go back and re-read old threads to see if anything stands out because I apparently missed a lot when reading through them the first time. However, the evidence brought up in this thread does seem strongly against TUO.

[Random Bystander she/her]

Just because I feel like I should vote, and think you guys have better reasoning then me, TUO

 

[|TJ| he/him]

13 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

• My issue here is that, like, I'd get it if you were saying "be cautious of IKYK" or "I think Illwei was actually lying" or anything along those lines but that isn't how this reads. It feels much more like you are genuinely just trying to devalue analysis from a dead eliminator, or at least that particular analysis (which incidentally was Ashbringer trying to figure out who might have told Illwei to kill Kas, which didn't narrow things down that much but then I don't think every player on that list actually would have suggested something like that), which I don't think is a great look.

The thing is, it wasn't even an analysis. It was an offhand comment about someone telling her to kill Kas. And it did give off the vibe that she made it jokingly, like she has many times before, like saying to someone they left a message in the elim doc. Now that is different from, say, the reads list that she posted, and Archer's analysis of it, which was was actually helpful. What I was wary of Ashbringer's analysis was how sure he was that she wasn't lying because he made statements like "There SHOULD be an elim in X, Y, Z" which seemed to exude too much confidence on something that was based on an assumption. And to be clear, I did mean to say "I think Illwei was actually lying"

13 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

TJ did you read this 

I've never seen you vote on your suspicion via RNG before, so I'm still suspicious of that vote :P.

[Quivil]

13 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Quickly enough to make me suspect people were defending them.

How about verify this? And defending where? In PMs, or in-thread?

There's a huge train on TUO last I checked. Tani

I defend myself when I can, and when I can't, I ask those I trust to be villagers for help, not elims. QF52 I was elim and told the other elims to not defend me ever. That was the same game I asked Quinn to defend me over Sunday if I needed defending, because I'm not on the shard over Sunday.

I have no PMs.

Edit: The last voter on me will get all my stuff.

Edited June 30, 2021 by Tani

[StrikerEZ he/him]

@The Unknown Order @Ashbringer @Azmine_king @Archer @Dannex @Szeth_Pancakes @Steeldancer@kaylakrue @|TJ| @Devotary of Spontaneity @Jondesu @Alvron @DrakeMarshall@Random Bystander @WhiffleWaffles @attic_gremlin @YeetAroundABush @purplewhiteandgold @Tani @quillinthestars Here is your ~30 minute reminder to get any actions in before the turn closes! Sorry for not doing one earlier, work was rough yesterday and I conked out as soon as I could last night.

Also, I’d give a VC, but I’m on mobile right now.  It’s like 10 people on TUO, 2 on Drake, and 1 on Tani (from herself).

[Quivil]

No Drake voted on me too @StrikerEZ

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

That's a lot of votes on TUO, enough that I would guess most of the remaining elims piled on. If TUO is an elim, I think it's more likely for those teammates to have jumped on the train when it started looking hopeless than to have tried to vote for Drake. Village TUO increases the odds that a very early TUO voter is an elim, and that either of the two Drake voters is evil or Drake is.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

13 minutes ago, Tani said:

No Drake voted on me too @StrikerEZ

I know, I have that in the spreadsheet, I just forgot that when I made my post earlier.

Anyway, here's an actual VC:

TUO (11): Ashbringer, Archer, Dannex, Szeth_Pancakes, Devotary, Random Bystander, WhiffleWaffles, attic_gremlin, YeetAroundABush, purplewhiteandgold, quillinthestars
DrakeMarshall (2): Steeldancer, TJ
Tani (2): DrakeMarshall, Tani

[StrikerEZ he/him]

And that's the turn! No more posting or submitting actions until the next one is up!

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Gavrill had been using the firemoss for as long as he could remember. The way it left his fingertips scorched hardly even affected him anymore. His hands were mostly calluses by this point. 

Not to mention the hallucinations.

Gavrill looked around him as the crowd gathered before him. He wasn't sure what they actually were, but all he could see were the Voidbringers of old, from the legends he learned about as a kid. They frightened him, and he told them to go away, to leave him alone.

That just made the crowd angrier, and they drew closer and closer to him.

Gavrill began to scream, and he wasn't sure what language he was screaming in anymore. Maybe he actually was from Hyrule, and he wasn't using firemoss. Maybe he was just insane.

Either way, the crowd had no mercy for him and his pleas. They eventually managed to get ahold of him and take him to be executed, claiming he was a Yiga. He was not in fact a Yiga, and his drugged up blood ran down the stones that day.

The Unknown Order has been removed! They were a Hyrulean!

TUO (11): Ashbringer, Archer, Dannex, Szeth_Pancakes, Devotary, Random Bystander, WhiffleWaffles, attic_gremlin, YeetAroundABush, purplewhiteandgold, quillinthestars
DrakeMarshall (2): Steeldancer, TJ
Tani (2): DrakeMarshall, Tani

This turn will end at 9:30 am CDT on Thursday, July 1st.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Matrim's Dice - Hyrulean Mipha
2. Kasimir - Hyrulean Beedle
3. The Unknown Order - Hyrulean
4. @Ashbringer - Faleast and AraRaash, who will certainly find a way to keep each other busy while stuck in a strange dimension.
5. @Azmine_king
6. @Archer - Linkov, an elf with a sword who shouts "I'M LINKOV"
7. @Dannex - DaaNex, a kandra
8. @Szeth_Pancakes - Earl, a knight(?)
9. @Steeldancer - Linebeck, swindler, salesman, local hero
10. Araris Valerian - Yiga King Rhoam
11. @kaylakrue
12. @|TJ| - Shakhtar, character that develops a personality the longer it exists
13. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Kele, ex-Yiga, a bit confused but has the spirit
14. _Stick_ - Hyrulean
15. Illwei - Master Kohga
16. @Jondesu - Cimu
17. @Alvron - Jamut Whitemane, no idea what's going on
18. @DrakeMarshall - Zoel, an intelligent green hat who is definitely not Ezlo, what are you talking about?
19. The Young Pyromancer - Hyrulean Knight
20. @Random Bystander - KorVaal the Kandra, currently impersonating a Hylian woman named Eshe
21. @WhiffleWaffles - Sagessa, she's pretty cool
22. @attic_gremlin - Horatio Archibald Stibbons, Hyrule Castle's elusive, mustachioed butler
23. @YeetAroundABush - Nott Yigah, from the esteemed and most noble house of Yigah
24. @purplewhiteandgold - Vee, a maid at the castle and a bit new to all this
25. @Tani - Reva
26. @quillinthestars - Conepine, he's... he's just a pinecone cat

PMs will be sent out shortly, if they haven't been already.

[Ashbringer he/him]

I’m hoping those PMs that exist are being helpful…

Well. TUO was village. A decent shot, but wrong all the same. Mobile makes it hard to go back, but I’m guessing we’re back to Drake, Steel, Archer, TJ, in some order.

[Archer he/him]

Do we only have one Postman? Is there two and people are confused which is good and which is evil? What’s the holdup? It’d be really nice to have some scan results because TUO’s flip has knocked my whole line of inquiry out of whack. TJ’s no longer cleared, Drake isn’t as suspicious as before, and I’m sure as top suspects, they’ve been scanned already so exing them could be a big, preventable mistake. I’m okay waiting until tomorrow to hear from Zelda’s representative, given there’s little anyone other than Link can do right now, but some insights would be nice. I hope you’ve used the last few days to figure out a plan.

My gut reaction to the flip was to continue sussing Drake. I don’t think a villager with the information we had would so confidently refuse to exe TUO. I’d thought it was an e/e thing, but maybe it’s just that they had special knowledge, as they know the elim team. The dude even tried to make a bet with me in our PM that my reads were wrong. So obviously he and TJ, as the only ones really reluctant to join the TUO train, are elims being contrarian for village cred.

That’s a reasonable analysis. But I know it’s heavily tainted by confirmation bias. I need to let it digest some more before I try to start clean and figure this web out. Hopefully our conf goods come through again and give us something to work with because I don't know if I have the confidence to lead another charge at someone tomorrow. 

*

"Hey, kid, what's another name for an embedded URL?"

"I AM LINKOV!"

"Hyperlink? I guess you do seem kinda revved up today..."