Long Game 77: A Political Trap

[Mat]

1 minute ago, manukos said:

it is not a cipher 
but could you please define coded ?

 

Uhh from the updated rules/etiquette post

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Do not use ciphers, codes, or other languages to communicate in a way other players cannot understand. If a game has limited or closed PMs, you can’t get around that by making private messages in the thread. At most, you may communicate a particular piece of information specified in PM (e.g. “the first name I say in my first post will be the person I think you should scan”), but you cannot just tell someone a key in PM so that they can decipher the piece of code you put in the thread. 

So idk if whatever your thing is qualifies

[Araris Valerian]

8 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

If you have reason to believe that the current voting is not going to turn out well, then you should act on it.

Okay, so the thing is, we didn't have any reason to believe anything one way or the other about the vote last turn. We had nothing concrete on anyone involved, so I was perfectly content to kill one of them off.

11 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Yeah, it's a paradox to defend somebody on the basis that nobody has been defending them, because then it is no longer the case that they aren't being defended, but... The concern is that eliminators would try to save their teammates, and I know I'm a villager, so at least from where I'm standing, it's still the right decision to defend somebody who is starting to seem like they are more likely to be innocent. It isn't really useful to get a village read on somebody if that person dies.

I'm really not sure we ever get great justification to defend anyone D1. There are some exceptions, of course, but we should be creating pressure on players, not trying to relieve it. Elims are sort of in the boat of wanting to defend a lot more than attack, since they actually know who is village, and of course they don't want to kill their teammates as well. I certainly don't have a village read on Mat right now, and would be happy to vote for him again next cycle, although I can probably come up with a better option.

14 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I don't think changing your mind sometimes undermines the seriousness of a vote, or at least it doesn't undermine it very much. If my vote for experience had been received differently, there is a very real chance I might have kept pursuing their execution.

If the statement "No player's first vote on D1 will be there by the end of the turn" is true, then there is literally no point behind the first vote that any player makes, except in allowing them to place a second vote. I'm doing my best to make said statement be occasionally false, since it fosters more discussion if people are worried that I actually want to kill them.

16 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Not to put too fine a point on it, but I believe the outcome of today's execution could have been averted if people had been willing to risk pursuing alternatives to the 2 or 3 bad choices for the execution that were in the lead. Because nobody seemed all that jazzed about exing experience, it just seemed like a better choice than Matrim or Ventyl, but not really a good choice. Sometimes being willing to change your vote is a good thing.

Why do we want to avert the outcome? We killed someone (this is a good thing), and I don't think anyone actually expected us to hit an elim. Yeah, we killed a tineye, but the game is role madness, and we could just as easily have taken out a protection role or something. There is almost never a "good choice" D1. And I think the fact that a bunch of people had strong enough opinions to change their votes at cycle end is interesting enough to justify our results.

[manukos]

hmmmm ill ask the Gms and reveal it if not 

[DrakeMarshall]

Aight I am looking at the last couple posts from the previous day:

5 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

-_-. Dude the whole point of acting villagery as elim is so that it's not heckin obvious when I roll elim. My elim playstyle looks like my village one smh.

Why am I the leading train? Seriously though

1. Meaningless retaliation poke (@manukos)
2. Araris stab vote
3. Because I'm acting similar to how I did in an elim game when the whole point of this game is to act village as elim.

If I'm being voted off, I want an actual reason please. Haven't seen that yet.

Experience

Well, this vote for experience is definitely understandable.

Also reads closer to village frustration at being exed without enough reasoning, but shrug elims also get frustrated if they feel like they are being exed for the wrong reasons so this is only a slight village read on Matrim.

5 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Hmmm, as of now, my vote looks to be a waste. I don't like the reasoning behind Mat's elimination, and right now, it looks like he's being voted out for nothing. I'd rather give Mat more time as he's a good villager and Experience isn't any better, but if we're gonna CC then it's better to do it now and preferable to an active player's elimination.

So this is pretty much the reasoning that feels typical of the experience train.

And, in fairness, the reasoning is basically 100% correct. With what we knew at the time, experience was a better choice than matrim.

I just wish we could have taken a third option.

4 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

... I seem to remember leading an exe against an inactive last game, in place of (I think) Mat... and that didn't go well. But it's a D1 exe...

Aaaand there's TJ.

I'll vote Experience. I'd rather keep it away from a tie.

Of all the votes on experience, I am probably the most suspicious of this one.

In my experience, when the main reason for a vote is preventing ties or vote manipulation, it is often a disingenuous vote.

Because, while it is a valid reason, it's also a justification for literally any train ever. Why do you support this train in particular? If it was one of several reasons, then fine, but if it's the main reason for casting a vote, I am suspicious.

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The double soothes are interesting. I guess it could be a riot to a no-vote, assuming rioting works that way.

Interesting, I didn't notice those.

Soothing is not the only possibility, and I will assume you either do not possess any of the ferring roles that cancel out your vote while storing, or that you are making a very sneaky IKYK pretending you are unaware of these roles 

3 hours ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Edit: WHO STOLE HALF OF MY HECKING BOXINS?

GIVE THEM BACK >:(

Wait, you started the game with boxings?

Or does the thief action happen after income is added in a turn? Oh, it does. Huh.

Anyways: I may have a soft spot for thieves since it was my role in the last game. However, Thief, if you try stealing from me, this will not stop me from going to very unreasonable lengths to make sure you regret it  This I swear. And if you've ever played Settlers of Catan with me, you'll know I'm not lying.

[manukos]

18 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

So idk if whatever your thing is qualifies

asked the God Masters
they said it is ok 

[DrakeMarshall]

 

1 hour ago, Biplet said:

This rubs me the wrong way, but again, the overly abrasive tone and slight leaning to chaos makes me hesitant to call you out as an elim. At least in most games I've played, elims try to not draw too much attention to themselves? My read on you is definitely leaning down rather than up though. I don't think we've played enough games together for me to totally grasp your playstyle.

For what it's worth...

By now I would not be surprised if some people have put together the pieces that Szeth and I had an arrangement concerning a possible use of our respective roles. I made the offer, after some brief negotiation Szeth quickly accepted, and I strongly suspect the same offer would have given elim!Szeth pause, even if he did end up accepting it. That is a lot of my reason for village reading Szeth.

So yeah, we have roles, everyone has roles  A lot of them can benefit from each other. It doesn't really matter anymore because PMs are ded.

That is all.

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Mat, TJ, Drake, Archer, Dannex, manukos, Araris, Lotus, Mist, Ash, TUO, Azmine, Jondesu, Devo, Books, Biplet, Ventyl, Szeth

Could someone explain to my why Archer is on everyone's trust reads?

Like, I almost kind of have a sus gut read of them, and I'll defer to others if there's something super villagey that I missed that everyone else picked up on, but I'm just mostly confused.

57 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

tl;dr - I would like some reasoning out of you, Mat. 

I can sympathize, especially bc I literally just asked Matrim to clarify something about their reads well 

Also though. I just kinda want to point out that between posting reads with few explanations or not posting reads at all, the former is definitely better for the village, and there are lots of people who haven't even done that. Le shrug.

43 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

First off, thanks for the definitive sentence-by-sentence post

You did indeed answer a lot of my questions.

My read on Drake is village - they agreed to a PM deal that, if PMs hadn't closed straight away, could have led to them being mechanically confirmed elim.

I do not really understand how oversight on my role would have allowed me to be mechanically confirmed one way or the other, but I do hope it would have at least built up some degree of trust.

17 minutes ago, manukos said:

well...not particularly well , i'd even argue that using it now could be more detrimental than not 
it'd also be like screaming the cipher (no pun intended) to a very obvious hand signal to be used out in the open that people could also figure out on their own if they went looking.
so if everyone knows about it  there is no reason for it and if i employ it in secret only a few will pick up on it and i risk them being Elims and swaying me to their side 
that being said i'll give it a shot and perhaps explain it a cycle or two from now so that people can go back and check 
there ..  TADAAAAAA
you have it
(with 3 ways to figure it out depending on the variety of cool person you are, be it investigator, archivist or dark of cover)
it would have worked way better if people weren't actively searching for it and it could be slipped by for only the ones warned to look out for it 
further more if the rules have changed since i last employed this gambit and it is now disallowed i am sorry and please Bard delete this post 
until i reveal it however i promise upvotes to whoever figures it out 

I figured it out. Tada! Now gib upvote 

[Mat]

6 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I just wish we could have taken a third option.

Mood.

6 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Soothing is not the only possibility, and I will assume you either do not possess any of the ferring roles that cancel out your vote while storing, or that you are making a very sneaky IKYK pretending you are unaware of these roles 

The funniest thing about me forgetting about these is that I was literally one of those in the original run of this game; I was a Sparker.

Araris' post is why I village read him atm. Don't see an elim arguing for something like that, though I gotta admit if anyone were to it'd be Araris :P.

1 minute ago, manukos said:

asked the God Masters
they said it is ok 

If GM stands for god masters, are we the gods?  

And alright. I already checked your posts for white text, but I'll keep looking  *is paranoid he didn't check hard enough*

13 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

By now I would not be surprised if some people have put together the pieces that Szeth and I had an arrangement concerning a possible use of our respective roles. I made the offer, after some brief negotiation Szeth quickly accepted, and I strongly suspect the same offer would have given elim!Szeth pause, even if he did end up accepting it. That is a lot of my reason for village reading Szeth.

PMs was what got my Szeth suspicion started. In a similar vein to how my suspicion on you started, actually, Szeth just gave me other reasons to continue that line of suspicion. Though since I'm guessing it was something similar I can see how it would work for you two  

4 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Could someone explain to my why Archer is on everyone's trust reads?

Like, I almost kind of have a sus gut read of them, and I'll defer to others if there's something super villagey that I missed that everyone else picked up on, but I'm just mostly confused.

For me it's like the same kind of read as you and TJ for me. Not really an village read for effort, but for village-seeming content and comments. Though it was a long time ago (relative to the game, that is) that I read his post and he still hasn't said anything in awhile which is kind of weird for him.

But like for everyone else who wants to ask me about my reads- I know I've explained them all somewhere, likely in this turn's thread. Szeth basically asked me about all of them. And even before that- it's not like I posted the rainbow out of the blue. None of those placements really should have surprised anyone.

[Chronologically, the following RP takes place during the Day, picking up where my last one left off]

---

Philico regulated his breathing, trying to keep calm and think through this rationally. The boy to his left couldn't be Peter; Peter would be... long, long dead by now. But in human years Philico should be dead, and AraRaash... Philico didn't even want to guess at the kandra's biological age. It was too much to hope that Peter wasn't human, and something that was definitely laughable. Philico had known the boy better than anyone, and he had been as genuine as anyone Philico had ever met.

Still, the resemblance gave Philico an instant soft spot for the lad. Not thinking about how potentially strange it would be for the boy, Philico turned and walked slowly into the alleyway, crouching down next to the boy, who didn't so much as move his head, or even move. It was as if he were sleeping, or dead.

"What do you want?"

Ah, you are in there somewhere. "I don't want anything from you, unless your name counts." Philico stuck out his hand. "I'm Phil."

The boy looked up at Philico, still not moving his head. "That's a dumb name."

Philico stood up, disappointed. Peter had instantly been open, which is how their friendship was actually started. "It was nice to meet you too." He turned to go.

"Wait." The boy suddenly said. Philico looked back. "I'll tell you if you get me food."

Philico smiled.

"I think I can manage that."

[manukos]

42 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I figured it out. Tada! Now gib upvote 

i expected a recreation as proof but i guess that will suffice 

 

27 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

If GM stands for god masters, are we the gods?  

i can only speak for myself
 

[DrakeMarshall]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Okay, so the thing is, we didn't have any reason to believe anything one way or the other about the vote last turn. We had nothing concrete on anyone involved, so I was perfectly content to kill one of them off.

I'm really not sure we ever get great justification to defend anyone D1. There are some exceptions, of course, but we should be creating pressure on players, not trying to relieve it. Elims are sort of in the boat of wanting to defend a lot more than attack, since they actually know who is village, and of course they don't want to kill their teammates as well. I certainly don't have a village read on Mat right now, and would be happy to vote for him again next cycle, although I can probably come up with a better option.

If the statement "No player's first vote on D1 will be there by the end of the turn" is true, then there is literally no point behind the first vote that any player makes, except in allowing them to place a second vote. I'm doing my best to make said statement be occasionally false, since it fosters more discussion if people are worried that I actually want to kill them.

Why do we want to avert the outcome? We killed someone (this is a good thing), and I don't think anyone actually expected us to hit an elim. Yeah, we killed a tineye, but the game is role madness, and we could just as easily have taken out a protection role or something. There is almost never a "good choice" D1. And I think the fact that a bunch of people had strong enough opinions to change their votes at cycle end is interesting enough to justify our results.

If it's just a matter of making some amount of votes cast at the beginning of the cycle still meaningful, I can respect that.

But I do think there is a balancing act. Constantly changing your vote makes voting meaningless, but never changing your vote makes analysis meaningless.

And if you think we are too far towards one side of that balancing act, and are trying to even the scales, then that's perfectly fine. But I believe the goal should always be to hit an elim, even if we very probably won't succeed on D1.

30 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Mood.

The funniest thing about me forgetting about these is that I was literally one of those in the original run of this game; I was a Sparker.

Araris' post is why I village read him atm. Don't see an elim arguing for something like that, though I gotta admit if anyone were to it'd be Araris :P.

If GM stands for god masters, are we the gods?  

And alright. I already checked your posts for white text, but I'll keep looking  *is paranoid he didn't check hard enough*

PMs was what got my Szeth suspicion started. In a similar vein to how my suspicion on you started, actually, Szeth just gave me other reasons to continue that line of suspicion. Though since I'm guessing it was something similar I can see how it would work for you two  

For me it's like the same kind of read as you and TJ for me. Not really an village read for effort, but for village-seeming content and comments. Though it was a long time ago (relative to the game, that is) that I read his post and he still hasn't said anything in awhile which is kind of weird for him.

But like for everyone else who wants to ask me about my reads- I know I've explained them all somewhere, likely in this turn's thread. Szeth basically asked me about all of them. And even before that- it's not like I posted the rainbow out of the blue. None of those placements really should have surprised anyone.

Yeah sorry I know you've sorta explained some of this stuff  I guess I'm just perplexed about Archer in particular bc everyone's read on them is kinda sorta gut, which is fine, but I am a little surprised that they all seem to agree, whereas I for some reason do not share the same gut read.

I agree that Araris' post seemed vaguely village, although I will also say that I have definitely made arguments about "meta" and optimal play while being an eliminator before. There are some ways of playing that I would defend regardless of alignment, as a matter of principle.

Are you saying both me and Szeth tried to get you to claim? 

1 minute ago, manukos said:

i expected a recreation as proof but i guess that will suffice 

The message text contains seven instances of the letter 'A'

 

So, we do not have a vote tonight, nor do we have PMs. I am thinking now would be a pretty good opportunity to do more RP.

Problem is, I don't really know what to RP about next. There are only so many outlandish ideas I can suggest, see. Hmmm...

Anybody wanna RP with Juno? 

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Are you saying both me and Szeth tried to get you to claim? 

Yes :P.

2 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

The message text contains seven instances of the letter 'A'

Oh I found that

I thought it was something... more than that. Idk

2 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Anybody wanna RP with Juno? 

Philico is kinda occupied atm, sorry  

[+Lotus]

11 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Anybody wanna RP with Juno? 

Did someone say RP? 

[Archer]

Sorry, Experience. Hey @Matrim's Dice, are you a soother, or do you just have friends with power? (Who didn't coordinate with Experience's friends)

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Yes, it would not be terribly inconceivable for there to be both an elim and a village tineye. -Drake

Ha, you were wrong :P. Unfortunately. It would have been a good troll move. Apologies to everyone who sent me a PM I didn’t respond to. Interesting that we have confirmation not everyone is a twinborn though. Sucks for the PM spy role.

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(or, in short, Ben T. Copper)…  I don't really know how to explain better than that, but Drake this game feels more like MR43 Drake rather than LG66 Drake, so I'm reading him as elim rn. -Absolutely TJ

:D.

Friendly reminder that the boxings incentives will mess with meta-analysis a bit in terms of quantity. I’m not going to give much weight to these kinds of potentially valid elim tells this game because people have good reason to change their habits. You gotta get to 200 words per post somehow.

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Uhh, there’s also this from the rules: Each player will have at least one role. So yeah I’d say that guess of yours is spot on. -Dannex

Ah ha! I am a genius guesser!

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I am choosing to play this game very PM heavy. -Dannex

Oop

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The voter turnout is decently good, for which I am grateful, but the cycle is more than halfway through and there is literally only one person with more than a single vote on them. I also don't think it's a great idea to remove literally the only player so far who has shared more than one or two reads, regardless of if those reads are wrong. I know it's D1 and lord ruler knows I don't have much to go on rn, but as the end of the turn draws near we do need to start taking the vote seriously.

Therefore, Experience, you have been nominated to share the chopping block with matrim until such a time as you speak up or somebody else breaks the tie. No hard feelings, but if I want to follow my own advice and not spread the vote between like 6 players, my choices are: one of the most active players in the game who hasn't done anything particularly sus, two players I have never played with before and would like to get a chance to meet, and a player who still hasn't posted anything. -Drake

 

Hey @DrakeMarshall, can you explain how you expected people to react to this post? Specifically, how you hoped they’d vote because of it.

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You say the turn out is pretty good, but let me look at those again... -Mat

Valid point, with a touch of motivation behind it. Mat probably had the strongest read of anyone in the room, so I understand why they felt contrarian. I’m reading Mat as village at the moment.

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I have a fancy little program (not made by me) that just puts all the posts into a tab in the spreadsheet and gives me the word count and I mark if it belongs in the RP or discussion category (or both) and the sheet does all the math after that. -Striker

Throwing back to the distinction of RP discussion, can you adjust your program to count italics and plaintext separately? Could probably have everyone put RP in italics going forward @StrikerEZ

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Mat, if there isn't much voting that goes on before cycle end, we can probably assume that most of the people who currently have votes are village, since there is vote manip in this game, and I doubt the elims would want to risk losing a player this early. -Araris

Don’t like this post. I agree with it, but I don’t think it should have been posted until Night time.

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Actual willingness behind my vote? Maybe earlier today. Now not so much.-Matrim

Oo that’s interesting. Changed your mind because Drake was being villager or because Drake was being villagery and you didn’t want to push a mix too hard? 

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In an effort to not drag yet another name onto the voting list, I'm gonna vote Experience. @Experience consider this a poke vote for now. I have no way to justify voting on you otherwise, since you haven't posted, but join us!!! -Biplet

This is the creation of a viable wagon (3 votes) disguised as a poke. I dislike it. Mat said the same thing quicker, but I’ll +1 it.

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Still looking for that summary of what’s happened this game so far...-Ventyl

It’s like, four pages at that point and half of it is RP (read: ignorable). That approach this early in the game is disappointing.   

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So RNG said to look at you, Drake, so I did. -Mist

Could you please explain how you plan to use RNG this game? @Mist

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Lafay “Spicy Buttermilk Pancake Grand Chef of Silverlight Extraordinaire” Etteax -Ventyl

Respect XD.

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I do get a boxing for voting, not that this makes a huge difference, so we'll go for Mist, for posting without going for the extra boxing of a vote. Entirely possible that she will cast a vote, but I will not be around to see it this turn. -Devo

Huh. It’s a classic late-round Devo vote, but it pointedly avoids adding to the stakes. I’m okay with that, but I’m not sure I quite follow the mindset. @Devotary of Spontaneity

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Because I'm acting similar to how I did in an elim game when the whole point of this game is to act village as elim. -Mat

Not a great defense, but there’s not much you can do to fend off a D1 vote.

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Hmmm, as of now, my vote looks to be a waste. I don't like the reasoning behind Mat's elimination, and right now, it looks like he's being voted out for nothing. I'd rather give Mat more time as he's a good villager and Experience isn't any better, but if we're gonna CC then it's better to do it now and preferable to an active player's elimination. -Absolutely TJ

This I understand.

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I'll vote Experience. I'd rather keep it away from a tie.-Ash

This I don’t. What do you have against ties? @Ashbringer

*****

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This. This is why we don't do inactivity lynches.

So, I'm extremely upset about this. I had a deal with one person that benefited me and relied heavily on PM usage. Plus, I had a lot of people set up to do roleclaims sometime in the future. And that's out the window now. Edit: WHO STOLE HALF OF MY HECKING BOXINS? –SzethP

 

You imply that exing Mat had significantly better odds of success.  

Casually admits to being a PM spider, very cool, very villagery.

Says they’ve been robbed, which means Drake wasn’t (or there’s two thieves). Why didn’t they go for the big fish?

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I have a role that heavily benefits from roleclaims.-Szeth

That clicking noise you just heard is the elims cocking their NK guns. What are you up to? @Szeth_Pancakes

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Why do we want to avert the outcome? We killed someone (this is a good thing), and I don't think anyone actually expected us to hit an elim. Yeah, we killed a tineye, but the game is role madness, and we could just as easily have taken out a protection role or something. There is almost never a "good choice" D1. And I think the fact that a bunch of people had strong enough opinions to change their votes at cycle end is interesting enough to justify our results.-Araris

Agreed.

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By now I would not be surprised if some people have put together the pieces that Szeth and I had an arrangement concerning a possible use of our respective roles. I made the offer, after some brief negotiation Szeth quickly accepted, and I strongly suspect the same offer would have given elim!Szeth pause, even if he did end up accepting it. That is a lot of my reason for village reading Szeth. -Drake

Can confirm Drake was soliciting roleclaims in PMs. Will spend several hours tonight pondering whether they’ve softed their role enough by now to guess what it is. :P.

Mat and I are in the same headspace this game. I propose they used their vote manip to self-protect, which isn't noteworthy. Biplet is probably my top sus at the moment. 

[Mat]

5 minutes ago, Archer said:

Sorry, Experience. Hey @Matrim's Dice, are you a soother, or do you just have friends with power? (Who didn't coordinate with Experience's friends)

~

Oo that’s interesting. Changed your mind because Drake was being villager or because Drake was being villagery and you didn’t want to push a mix too hard? 

Not a Soother. Either the/a Soother decided it was worth making sure I was kept around, or one of the people voting me has a Feruchemical role that cancels a vote :P.

I don't follow this sentence, sorry  Changed my mind because Drake was being villagery in thread and my original suspicion stemmed off of PMs.

[Mist]

29 minutes ago, Archer said:

 Could you please explain how you plan to use RNG this game? 

@Mist

Mainly just deciding who to look at when I don't have any particular things I've noticed.

[Biplet]

Shara blinked away the sleep that threatened to overtake her. Iden was partially right: she’d been up most of the night and day, though she’d snuck small naps here and there. Her body would give out soon, but she wasn’t ready for that. She had work to do.

Yet again, she’d burned a candle to its end, though the candles they were provided were small and cheap, so it didn’t shock her. The last remnants of the light flickered over her notes. Scratched out theories, maps of the meeting building, a thorough analysis of what could’ve made people suspect Zara… all organized in neat stacks. A discard pile sat under the desk.

And in front of her, the single note. 

He’d said it’d been a joke. The blackmail was just his teasing, the way he always bounced around meetings, causing chaos. She didn’t know the Lafay Etteax very well. She’d attended a convention he was at before, but their interactions had been brief and ended shortly. People reassured her she was fine, that no harm would befall her, and yet…

The candle puttered out. She shivered.

Shara pushed away from the desk. Time for a walk. Some fresh night air and a (non-alcoholic) drink at a late night tavern would do her some good. She didn’t need anything muddying her mind, but perhaps a coffee to keep her up and steady her tired thoughts.

...did Garmet taverns even serve coffee?

---

This is just some rp! For fun for people who want to read it

this is in honor of the coffee I had at 7pm last night after doing 5 hours of spanish homework

Edited May 31, 2021 by Biplet

[DrakeMarshall]

A wild archer has appeared!

Maybe now I can figure out how to read you properly  There seems to be plenty to look at in your post.

27 minutes ago, Archer said:

Sorry, Experience. Hey @Matrim's Dice, are you a soother, or do you just have friends with power? (Who didn't coordinate with Experience's friends)

I would actually be pretty surprised if both of those vote manipulations were a result of soothing...

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Hey @DrakeMarshall, can you explain how you expected people to react to this post? Specifically, how you hoped they’d vote because of it.

I thought that executing experience was preferable to executing any of the other people who had votes. And with the information I had at the time (namely, not knowing experience was apparently the only tineye in the game), I cannot honestly say that this assessment was incorrect.

Like I said in that post, my goal was to consolidate the vote, because up until then all of the votes except Araris' were scattered to the point of being inconsequential, with none of the people with votes in any real danger. In retrospect, it would seem that I accomplished my goal.

However, experience was an inactive player, and everybody seemed pretty lukewarm about executing them, which made me change my mind about experience being the best available option. The fact that experience seemed like the best option among the players who were up for the vote became outweighed by the fact that the experience train seemed increasingly like a dead end, both in terms of information produced by it and in terms of the likelihood of getting an evil role killed, so I later pushed for the execution of somebody who was not previously in the running, a motion that others apparently did not see fit to support for one reason or another.

Does that answer your question?

Quote

Friendly reminder that the boxings incentives will mess with meta-analysis a bit in terms of quantity. I’m not going to give much weight to these kinds of potentially valid elim tells this game because people have good reason to change their habits. You gotta get to 200 words per post somehow.

I hate to shoot myself in the foot here, but |TJ|'s meta analysis was based on my behavior in LG66, where the same boxings incentives were present. So his meta-analysis was sound.

The main reason I think the conclusion of said analysis was misleading was because it was based on a sample size of two. I feel that a lot of things he pointed out are actually very common things for me to do as a villager, and LG66 was in some ways atypical of how I usually play as village.

Quote

Don’t like this post. I agree with it, but I don’t think it should have been posted until Night time.  

In fairness, the post by Araris in question did not really say anything secret. Like, it's a pretty common method of analysis, so he didn't create an IKYK so much as just highlighted one that was already there.

Quote

This is the creation of a viable wagon (3 votes) disguised as a poke. I dislike it. Mat said the same thing quicker, but I’ll +1 it.

Mhm, I think a couple of us noted this. Personally, I'm inclined to give the benefit of the doubt on it for now, though, because I feel like that suspicion is mostly balanced out by how Biplet handled the thingy with Ventyl.

Quote

Says they’ve been robbed, which means Drake wasn’t (or there’s two thieves). Why didn’t they go for the big fish?

To be fair, Szeth was also a pretty big fish. At one point I observed in our PM that we were basically neck and neck for the 3 boxings prize.

Maybe the thief is a villager who trusts me 

Quote

That clicking noise you just heard is the elims cocking their NK guns. What are you up to? @Szeth_Pancakes

I mean, it's like I said. All you really know at this point is that Szeth and I have roles. So what? Everyone does 

Quote

Can confirm Drake was soliciting roleclaims in PMs.

I, uh, may have offered roleclaim trades to literally everyone I messaged  People keep telling be about this 'PM safety' thing, whatever that means...

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Will spend several hours tonight pondering whether they’ve softed their role enough by now to guess what it is. :P.

I am pretty sure I haven't, but you are perfectly welcome to try 

[Biplet]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

This is the creation of a viable wagon (3 votes) disguised as a poke. I dislike it. Mat said the same thing quicker, but I’ll +1 it.

Since a few people have pointed this out now I kinda want to address it. I voted on Exp partially as a poke, partially to bandwagon on him because for a moment it seemed better than voting off someone I wasn't really suspicious of. But I moved my vote off of Exp before anyone else voted on him after me, and it stayed on Ventyl until the end of the round. So, yeah, I created a viable wagon, but I moved off it, so I'm confused why I'm the one who's being looked at about this when I didn't even vote on him at the end.

I still don't know what to think about Ventyl. Earlier I said his chaos confused me, and that remains the same even after rereading D1 and our PMs. I know an elim probably wouldn't be blatant enough to blackmail someone, jokingly or not. So there. Suspicious of Ventyl still, but confused. That's where I stand.

Szeth still reading mild elim to me. Archer's posts are sound, with good reasoning, so I'm reading him village. So far, the only really solid village reads I have are Archer and manukos. The code pm plan just screams village to me, honestly.

Currently dealing with a lot irl, so this post isn't very well worded. After I deal with everything I should be back to giving better analysis. Hopefully.

[+Lotus]

Josephine sat in the tavern, nursing her wine. She hated wine, but it made her appear sophisticated to these low rats, so she was going to take whatever she would. Garnet's wine wasn't even that good. Maybe she'd have a beer after to wash it down although she wasn't much of a fan of beer either. Alcohol in general was rather miserable and pointless. As she sat there drinking, she noticed the patrons around her talking about the days events. How some person had been convicted of being a rebel or something, she didn't pay attention much.  The gossip, the conversations, suspects and allies all passed her by like the wind blowing from the ocean. Not that their was any ocean here in this horrible place.

She just let it all go away and drank another sip of the foul wine. Who would ever want to drink something that tasted like vinegar but worse? But she supposed she would deal with it, and pay in full. She could always create more gold if she needed too. Money was not a issue in this town.

Reputation, on the other hand, was.

Perhaps she should actually be paying attention, draw up a battle plan of alliances. But why should she? That was something Sariel or Selephiel would have done. Josephine had always gone off instinct, even if they were on occasion incorrect. And right now her finely honed instincts were telling her to wait here and see what may occur.

The door to the tavern opened and Josephine watched and waited.

[Mat]

@Lotus any thoughts on the game outside of RP?

[+Lotus]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@Lotus any thoughts on the game outside of RP?

I think some people are people and other people are not people.

[Mat]

3 minutes ago, Lotus said:

I think some people are people and other people are not people.

Edit: wait the image didn’t post

sorry I’m on mobile I’ll edit it in later

its those thonks Drake uses sometimes

Edited June 1, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Jondesu]

Sorry for not jumping back in earlier, just got caught up in IRL stuffs. I appreciate the neutral reads on me. I can’t say I have much in the way of reads yet, but I’m going to get on the computer later and try to get a better feel (it’s tough when I’m mostly on mobile.

[Biplet]

The tavern was shockingly lively for the middle of the night. Patrons of all shapes and sizes nursed drinks much the same. Wine in one hand, gin in the other, ale in the most. The smell of it all floated up to her, nauseatingly thick.

Shara picked her way around the tables, not paying heed to any of the men who looked her up and down as she passed. She looked awfully official for a tavern, in her pressed slacks and sharp blouse. How often did these men see a woman wearing pants? Garment was rather small and remote, so Shara imagined that professional attire hadn’t changed much in the past decades.

She sat next to a woman at the bar. Josephine, the one who’d seemed a bit out of her depth in the meetings, but held it together well. What was she doing at a place like this in the middle of the night? Then again, what was Shara doing at a place like this in the middle of the night?

She flagged down a bartender. “Do you serve coffee?”

The man blinked. “I mean, yes.”

“Coffee, please. No alcohol, a little cream. Thanks.”

After a few moments, the man just shrugged and set about making her odd request. Shara didn’t mind his looks. She’d garnered a small reputation for sticking out back in Elendel. Being perceived as odd no longer bothered her.

---

Psst, Lotus, you inspired me.

[Archer]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Either the/a Soother decided it was worth making sure I was kept around, or one of the people voting me has a Feruchemical role that cancels a vote :P.

Could be there's a feruchmical drop in there, but that still leaves a soother who decided to throw their weight around. One doesn't often do that for CC's. 

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:

1. I thought that executing experience was preferable to executing any of the other people who had votes. And with the information I had at the time (namely, not knowing experience was apparently the only tineye in the game), I cannot honestly say that this assessment was incorrect.

Like I said in that post, my goal was to consolidate the vote, because up until then all of the votes except Araris' were scattered to the point of being inconsequential, with none of the people with votes in any real danger. In retrospect, it would seem that I accomplished my goal.

However, experience was an inactive player, and everybody seemed pretty lukewarm about executing them, which made me change my mind about experience being the best available option. The fact that experience seemed like the best option among the players who were up for the vote became outweighed by the fact that the experience train seemed increasingly like a dead end, both in terms of information produced by it and in terms of the likelihood of getting an evil role killed, so I later pushed for the execution of somebody who was not previously in the running, a motion that others apparently did not see fit to support for one reason or another.

2. I hate to shoot myself in the foot here, but |TJ|'s meta analysis was based on my behavior in LG66, where the same boxings incentives were present. So his meta-analysis was sound.

3. Mhm, I think a couple of us noted this. Personally, I'm inclined to give the benefit of the doubt on it for now, though, because I feel like that suspicion is mostly balanced out by how Biplet handled the thingy with Ventyl.

4. Maybe the thief is a villager who trusts me 

5. I, uh, may have offered roleclaim trades to literally everyone I messaged  People keep telling be about this 'PM safety' thing, whatever that means...

1. I accept your explanation, but note you decided that making a new wagon wasn't a viable option 

2. Oh, fair enough! 

3. The Biplet Ventyl thing is NAI to me. After checking with the GMs that it was resolved, I've decided to just ignore it. There was a similar instance in the LG and it dragged down the game, so I'd rather play around it 

4. I just realized I'd been threating the thief as a neutral, because I once played a game with a neutral theif. They're probably village, aren't they, since the elims can steal with NKs. I retract my assumptions about them

5. I'd guess a few people accepted. Probably one of them was evil. So your secret is already out and you should just claim in thread :). 

1 hour ago, Biplet said:

Since a few people have pointed this out now I kinda want to address it. I voted on Exp partially as a poke, partially to bandwagon on him because for a moment it seemed better than voting off someone I wasn't really suspicious of. But I moved my vote off of Exp before anyone else voted on him after me, and it stayed on Ventyl until the end of the round. So, yeah, I created a viable wagon, but I moved off it, so I'm confused why I'm the one who's being looked at about this when I didn't even vote on him at the end.

I feel that poking an inactive and making them into the leading wagon is more than just an activity incentive. It seems more like an easy misdirection of the village exe. I appreciate that you removed it, but that can be construed as pulling out to avoid blood on your hands later. 

33 minutes ago, Lotus said:

I think some people are people and other people are not people.

More pointed question, how do you plan to help the village faction win? I get that we can't vote right now and hardcore analysis isn't everyone's thing, but in the long term, having a bunch of question marks in our reads lists will make it easier for the elims to survive. 

*

Also, the hockey gods hate me, so I'm taking tomorrow off from internet stuff 

[Biplet]

14 minutes ago, Archer said:

I feel that poking an inactive and making them into the leading wagon is more than just an activity incentive. It seems more like an easy misdirection of the village exe. I appreciate that you removed it, but that can be construed as pulling out to avoid blood on your hands later. 

I guess that's a fair point, but I'm just confused why you're kinda coming after me for temporarily voting on someone you voted on ? And I can assure you  that I voted on Ventyl because I had clear reason to, not because I was trying to pull out of the Exp vote. Like I said, no one else had voted on him before I removed the vote.

I also did say that I did it partially to bandwagon. I admitted to that.

edit: wait okay I think I misunderstood something

Edited June 1, 2021 by Biplet