Long Game 77: A Political Trap

[Mat]

3 hours ago, Biplet said:

In an effort to not drag yet another name onto the voting list, I'm gonna vote Experience. @Experience consider this a poke vote for now. I have no way to justify voting on you otherwise, since you haven't posted, but join us!!!

Hmm I don't like this vote. Opportunistic, if I'm using the term right. Actually that whole post reads off to me. Hmm.

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Excellent, thank you for posting so I can make another 200 word post.  We should have more debates in the thread, this is very profitable.

Okay so maybe we have gotten into the game enough that I can start trying my hand at a reads list, huh? Can't let you have all the fun.

By necessity, the degree of confidence / magnitude of my reads on people are quite small, this early in the game.

Shortened the quote to save space, but congrats on graduating to my village reads! :P.

1 hour ago, Ventyl said:

Biplet

For no other reason than the fact you’d even suggest I’m not lazy and actually read through the thread!

Still looking for that summary of what’s happened this game so far...

See I want to vote Biplet and now this happens. Like, I literally said the same thing as her and Ventyl did nothing, I don't get it.

The other thing that's keeping me from changing it is the weirdness with Szeth. I don't like the outside references.

Which brings me to: @Szeth_Pancakes, not analyzing basically just hurts the village, especially if you're doing it to not get sussed (which is an elim mindset). Earlier I was more null on Szeth but I'm leaning elim now, despite our PM.

New Rainbow:

Mat, TJ, Drake, Archer, manukos/Dannex, Biplet, Ventyl, Szeth

Everyone else is Null.

• *reloads by accident*
• *loses whole post*
• *rewrites said post*
• *Is ninja'd by Bip*
• *copies post this time*
• *clicks reload*

.....yeah I'm keeping my vote :/

Edited May 31, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Flyingbooks]

My thoughts about the rules so far:

Because items and boxings are spread among the voters on an executed person, there's an additional incentive to join bandwagons, which compounds on itself. If somebody would rather have someone other than whatever the current leading candidate is executed, there's the additional factor of potential lost boxing's or items. It's even more important than usual to be careful of bandwagons since it's easier for elims to start and keep them. Promising to switch to vote for someone else if enough other people are willing to switch too might be a good way to mitigate that a bit.

Pulsers could collaborate with someone else to make up to four of their actions occur on the same turn(or up to six with an assisting nicroburst too). This could be especially helpful for information gathering-type roles because it would allow them to scan a large segment of the population at once and get a fuller picture of a turn. Steelrunners could make this even more extreme. A steelrunner/tineye could potentially scan everybody in one turn, letting them see for certain who targeted the night's elim kill victim.

I suspect that some of the feruchemical roles, such as windwhispers and sparkers, will be revealed rather quickly since they affect the actions that someone can do while storing.

I'm a bit unclear about the black market. Does it have any items on it by default or can it only get items from players selling to it?

[StrikerEZ]

2 minutes ago, Flyingbooks said:

I'm a bit unclear about the black market. Does it have any items on it by default or can it only get items from players selling to it?

I can answer this: the black market will be open next turn (and each night turn), and will have a certain amount of each item in it. 

[DrakeMarshall]

Wow, like 15 posts since I last checked, you guys really aren't messing around.

Which, is good. Keep it up  If humongous D1 threads aren't a trademark of this game, they definitely should be.

1 hour ago, Ventyl said:

Still looking for that summary of what’s happened this game so far...

Okay, here it is:

Vote Tally
Ventyl (3): Biplet, Matrim's Dice, Szeth_Pancakes
Experience (2): Archer, DrakeMarshall
Matrim's Dice (2): manukos, Araris
Dannex (1): Flyingbooks

 im sorry I can't think of a legit summary pls forgive me

1 hour ago, Mist said:

 So RNG said to look at you, Drake, so I did. 

Hey almost same but high school

Yeah he tend ed/s to post fewer reads as elim.

So you look fine and I'm leaning village for you right now.

also I may have forgotten this game exists until this morning oops but hey I'm here now sorry Striker and everyone Edit: flame on!

Yay you're here.

Not gonna lie, it's kinda hard and time consuming to make fake reads as an elim  Now that MR43 is fresh in my mind I'm remembering that I put off posting any reads for the longest time and it almost got me killed by the village.

That said, I hope the next time I am an elim I will have learned from that mistake, but hey, not gonna argue with somebody leaning village about me.

1 hour ago, |TJ| said:

I'm actually having an elim read on Szeth Pancakes. They just poked Azmine, then reiterated the poke on Azmine like they aren't gonna move until he posts. And then indulged in a bunch of RP posts without saying much about the game state or the players. 

So, Drake, could you elaborate on this? 

Cause the way they've been playing in thread is very similar to how you described Ashbringer.

Yeah, I guess that's a completely fair observation.

From where I'm standing, I have a bunch of PM conversation to supplement my read of Szeth with, but probably if I only had their posts in the thread I would put them in a similar category as Ashbringer, you are right.

As for the contents of those PMs and why I read it as village, well, some of it was gut reading and some of it was me asking some questions that I think an elim would have not have wanted to answer as quickly as they did. Idk that's pretty much it, I wouldn't particularly blame you if this wasn't a concrete enough reason to persuade you to trust Szeth.

I'm guessing this is probably well over 200 words by now so I'm gonna hit submit reply and continue in a new post.

Edited May 31, 2021 by DrakeMarshall
updated vote tally to be correct

[Araris Valerian]

Okay, I'm going to try and give some thoughts on things. The first is kind of related to Szeth and the boxings, being that kill actions give the killer 50% of the dead player's cash, plus a single random item from among their belongings. Basically, I think this means that the elims are basically guaranteed to get the Lerasium if they want it, and that they would know this. So I have a rather mild village read on Szeth. On a related note, if a player has a protection role, I would suggest taking into account activity levels (and hence boxing amounts) when deciding who to protect. I definitely won't recommend anything like always protecting the player that won the 3 boxing award for most posts, but it's certainly something to keep in the back of our heads.

I will also say with regards to Szeth that being concerned about dying/getting suspected is more of an elim mindset than a village one though. Like, it's one thing to avoid behavior that is suspicious in the current meta. It's another to essentially put off playing until later to be "safer". But this could just be newplayerthatdoesn'twanttodie!Szeth instead of elim!Szeth. Something I've taken note of for sure.

As far as votes go, I'm happy with both Experience and Matrim as options. I don't really have any thoughts on Ventyl. My vote is not going to move for now, since I think it gives people that have yet to vote a few more options.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

51 minutes ago, Biplet said:

Experience Ventyl

I'm being blackmailed in PMs. I'm not sure if it's joking or not, but it's uncomfortable.

this is actually false, everything in pm was for comedic value

edit:

experience

if only for the sake of my survival.

edit 2:

might i even add that everything i have done and will do in this game has been for comedic value

Edited May 31, 2021 by Ventyl

[Szeth_Pancakes]

Big heckin analysis post 

Spoilered cause of size
 

Spoiler

 

Ashbringer: Null - They haven't posted anything of substance, other than a non-revelatory post analyzing roles.

Biplet: Very Mild Elim - This one's mostly a gut read. That seems like a lot of decisive village/elim reads this early in the game.

Szeth_Pancakes: Confirmed Vil. Just, the most vil. Ever. No matter what you say, Mat.

Matrim's Dice: Mild Elim - They're acting very similarly to both the games I've played with you. The thing is, they were elim in both of them.

Lotus: Null - They haven't posted very much, and nothing of substance.

Araris: Very Mild Elim - Why did they poke vote Mat? Mat had already posted quite a bit. He did not need poking. Other than that, I'm reading them fairly null. I'm flattered by his most recent post, but that doesn't make him any more vil.

The Unknown Order: Null, as they have not posted yet.

DrakeMarshall: Mild Vil - I don't see why an elim would agree to a deal that may lead to them being mechanically confirmed. I'm keeping an eye on them, however.

Jondesu: Null - Hasn't posted other than a poke vote (justifiable), a retraction of said poke vote, and an RP.

Archer: Vil - Has posted some very useful analysis.

Ventyl: Confused - Ventyl is acting very weird. I'm not sure what to make of it. Putting cryptic messages in white text, "blackmailing" Bip, and so on - Everything just seems off with them.

Experience: Null, as they have not posted yet.

Devotary of Spontaneity: Null, as they have not posted yet.

Azmine_King: Null, as they have not posted yet.

Mist: Null - Nothing in her one post about Drake stood out to me.

|TJ|: Very Mild Vil - They've posted some relatively straightforward and logical analysis, even if some of it is concerning how I'm suspicious.

manukos: Mild Vil - In essence, what Archer said. That comment back on the first page seems vil to me.

Dannex: Very Mild Vil - We had a brief PM conversation that I'm reading vil for now, but that might change.

Flyingbooks: Null - Not really much to go on here, and I'm tired and don't want to do a post-by-post

 

---

tl;dr - Ventyl Mat

I'mma go to bed now.

[DrakeMarshall]

1 hour ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Azmine Ventyl

Please don't do that.

The rest of you are getting no context

1 hour ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

since you can't quote in edits

I feel your pain, I really do.

It's not a feature you would usually care about that much in other parts of the shard, but yeah I definitely find myself wanting to edit in quotes sometimes when playing SE.

Quote

Although, you still can add this kind of quote in edits, and paste in the relevant text from somebody else's post.

It just no longer includes their name and timestamp of the post you are quoting, nor will it notify them that they have been quoted.

1 hour ago, |TJ| said:

I- okaaay see I'd term not doing any analysis on D1 as a bad decision

I would tend to agree.

1 hour ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

No, you misread. I don't do any analysis early D1. I usually wait until the last minute to do it.

I would also tend to agree with this.

Procrastinators, unite!!! tomorrow

1 hour ago, Ventyl said:

aluminum cast-iron frying pan

What fell magicks are you using to create a cast iron pan that is made of aluminum???

If you wanna wear an eye-searing copypasta amazing technicolor dream coat, fine, but this, this is just the last straw  My suspension of disbelief is ruined forever.

1 hour ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Ok, so I just asked Ventyl if they wanted to trade roleclaims, and they said yes. Then, I roleclaimed, and they refused to repeatedly answered "Yes" to each of my posts. I would say that this is more than a little suspicious, and I will welcome any votes that come towards my cause.

1 hour ago, Biplet said:

Experience Ventyl

I'm being blackmailed in PMs. I'm not sure if it's joking or not, but it's uncomfortable.

Okay, what the heck is going on.

@Ventyl are you trying to get people to vote for you? ...why?

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hmm I don't like this vote. Opportunistic, if I'm using the term right. Actually that whole post reads off to me. Hmm.

Opportunistic seems like a fairly apt description of that vote, yes. Idk because sometimes villagers can be opportunistic too, but the vote does kinda feel weird.

Quote

Shortened the quote to save space, but congrats on graduating to my village reads! :P.

Hooray!! I love graduating 

Quote

See I want to vote Biplet and now this happens. Like, I literally said the same thing as her and Ventyl did nothing, I don't get it.

Yeah I was gonna say, I initially thought it was you who said the thing that got Biplet voted for  Then it turned out Biplet also said a similar thing, and technically you never implied Ventyl had secretly read the thread or whatever which was the stated reasoning for Ventyl's vote, so I decided not to say anything.

Quote

• *reloads by accident*
• *loses whole post*
• *rewrites said post*
• *Is ninja'd by Bip*
• *copies post this time*
• *clicks reload*

I feel this on a spiritual level.

58 minutes ago, Flyingbooks said:

My thoughts about the rules so far:

Because items and boxings are spread among the voters on an executed person, there's an additional incentive to join bandwagons, which compounds on itself. If somebody would rather have someone other than whatever the current leading candidate is executed, there's the additional factor of potential lost boxing's or items. It's even more important than usual to be careful of bandwagons since it's easier for elims to start and keep them. Promising to switch to vote for someone else if enough other people are willing to switch too might be a good way to mitigate that a bit.

Pulsers could collaborate with someone else to make up to four of their actions occur on the same turn(or up to six with an assisting nicroburst too). This could be especially helpful for information gathering-type roles because it would allow them to scan a large segment of the population at once and get a fuller picture of a turn. Steelrunners could make this even more extreme. A steelrunner/tineye could potentially scan everybody in one turn, letting them see for certain who targeted the night's elim kill victim.

I suspect that some of the feruchemical roles, such as windwhispers and sparkers, will be revealed rather quickly since they affect the actions that someone can do while storing.

I'm a bit unclear about the black market. Does it have any items on it by default or can it only get items from players selling to it?

Yes you are more likely to earn some amount of boxings by bandwagoning, but the earnings are spread amongst every person you bandwagoned with. Whereas if you push for a new target with fewer votes, you could split their boxings among fewer people, and therefore get more shiny moneys. So I think the expected value of bandwagoning or not bandwagoning is roughly the same, with the difference being that refusing to bandwagon is a higher risk and higher reward proposition.

I mean, you aren't really getting in any extra scans by using a pulser ability, you are just delaying them. But yes in general roles that manipulate action economy have the potential to be really effective in some circumstances.

23 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

this is actually false, everything in pm was for comedic value

edit:

experience

if only for the sake of my survival.

Hrm. Aight well I'll defer to the folks you had PMs with to make sense of that.

Anyone you would rather execute than experience? Because fair warning I might not keep my vote parked on experience for the rest of the cycle. Two whole pages have happened since I made that vote 

Edited May 31, 2021 by DrakeMarshall

[Araris Valerian]

6 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Why did they poke vote Mat? Mat had already posted quite a bit. He did not need poking. Other than that, I'm reading them fairly null. I'm flattered by his most recent post, but that doesn't make him any more vil.

I already explained this. Mat already had a vote on him, and I wanted to create pressure. I never place "poke votes"; my votes are always placed with intent to kill. I coined the term "stab vote" to describe what I aim for with my D1 votes: not a whole lot of reasoning, but I'm definitely willing to get my hands dirty nonetheless.

[StrikerEZ]

Matrim's Dice (3): Araris Valerian, manukos, Szeth_Pancakes
Experience (3): Archer, DrakeMarshall, Ventyl
Ventyl (2): Biplet, Matrim's Dice
Dannex (1): Flyingbooks
Szeth_Pancakes (1): |TJ|
 

Okay, here’s a VC before I go to sleep, in case I wake up late and don’t post one in the morning before rollover.

[Biplet]

I suppose I should come out here and say that I have a hard time picking up on jokes over text, so if what happened in PMs with Ventyl was a joke, I couldn’t tell. Essentially, Ventyl threatened to possibly kill me if I voted on him. I chose to vote on him because I didn’t like this, and my vote on Exp was shoddy at best, and also I don’t want to give in to blackmail.

[Mist]

Re: next ISO, Ash exists yay. Not super helpful rn, but also is here so yay. So me re Ash= ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

also animals for some reason

/ᐠ｡ꞈ｡ᐟ\ /╲/\╭(•‿•)╮/\╱\ (=^･ｪ･^=)

[DrakeMarshall]

1 hour ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Big heckin analysis post 

I was really confused because I kept mentally translating vil = evil but then I realized vil = village 

But anyways, the presence of yet another reads list on D1 is a good sign. Enough posts like this and we can hopefully connect dots about possible elim teams later on in the game.

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I already explained this. Mat already had a vote on him, and I wanted to create pressure. I never place "poke votes"; my votes are always placed with intent to kill. I coined the term "stab vote" to describe what I aim for with my D1 votes: not a whole lot of reasoning, but I'm definitely willing to get my hands dirty nonetheless.

I prefer the term "educated shot in the dark" to describe my votes, but the principal is much the same.

But on the subject of voting philosophy and killing, I mean this in the nicest way possible but Araris.

I have more or less three reasons for doing this:

• Earlier you said something along the lines that if the votes don't change much as we approach the end of the cycle, it is more likely that the folks with votes are village. More recently, you said you are happy with both Experience and Matrim as possible exes. But to me it pretty much looks like the votes have been on those two and are staying there, which would imply that we will have better luck looking elsewhere, if I am following your own reasoning correctly. What gives?
• I am still slightly suspicious of the remark that seems to assume that vote manipulation would only help the village, which seems like a potential instance of TMI, like if elim!Araris knows his team does not have access to vote manips.
• I'm becoming less in favor of the experience vote than I was. I suppose I would somewhat prefer it to Matrim, but, I'm not above trying something else first. I would invite others to either consider joining me or make the case that I should change my vote.

Edited May 31, 2021 by DrakeMarshall

[danex]

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Wow, like 15 posts since I last checked, you guys really aren't messing around.

Which, is good. Keep it up  If humongous D1 threads aren't a trademark of this game, they definitely should be.

*cough* QF50 *cough*

 

Edit: Just thought of my first DannexPlan™️, and it’s a doozy. 

We don’t vote.

At all. 

In a perfect world this means nobody gets executed, but obviously there’s vote manip. So by doing this, we’d be potentially sacrificing 1 person, and in return we learn whether or not the Elims have vote manip. That knowledge is very important for future rounds, so if we aren’t super confident in any of the exe targets, this could be a way to at least get some valuable info out of a round. 

Honestly this might be one of the worse plans I’ve come up with, I can already see so many holes and arguments in it. I’m not entirely sure I support it myself, but I thought of it and therefore must share it.

Edited May 31, 2021 by Dannex

[|TJ|]

57 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

DrakeMarshall: Mild Vil - I don't see why an elim would agree to a deal that may lead to them being mechanically confirmed. I'm keeping an eye on them, however.

Wait, what deal?

---

Treveneux was not in any sort of immediate trouble. Well, at least that's what he thought. He was sure his contact was not Isendwel. He had no way of knowing that, but for some reason he was sure of it. The schematics he had passed on through a middle had found its way to her, so there wouldn't be any incriminating evidence against him. He had hoped she was careful enough to not leave evidence leading to his contact, but well seeing as she kept the schematics where it could be found, he wasn't hopeful of it. Though he was corrupt, he wasn't lethargic or careless. He had taken care to give the false name for the logs at Railway Department office, and he never showed his face for more than a fraction of a second. 

He needed to undo it, and undo it quickly. He didn't want anything to do with the Rebels, so the quicker they were all dispersed from here, the better. The Rebels wanted them here for a purpose, and he was caught in the crossfire.

He listening to plans of others and-

What?? One of them involved walking to Elendel? Well I suppose that's one way to disperse people, and there's no harm is having less people here to be victims of the Rebels' plans. 

But... first things first. He'd have to look at the train sabotage to begin with.

[Ashbringer]

... I'm very confused.

I don't know if I'll be able to get up before rollover tomorrow or not... that's 7:00 AM for me, and I've been waking up quite the much later than that...

It does seem like there's a few sets of PMs around... one of which I've gotten, the rest seem to be making this volatile.

[DrakeMarshall]

45 minutes ago, Dannex said:

*cough* QF50 *cough*

 

Edit: Just thought of my first DannexPlan™️, and it’s a doozy. 

We don’t vote.

At all. 

In a perfect world this means nobody gets executed, but obviously there’s vote manip. So by doing this, we’d be potentially sacrificing 1 person, and in return we learn whether or not the Elims have vote manip. That knowledge is very important for future rounds, so if we aren’t super confident in any of the exe targets, this could be a way to at least get some valuable info out of a round. 

Honestly this might be one of the worse plans I’ve come up with, I can already see so many holes and arguments in it. I’m not entirely sure I support it myself, but I thought of it and therefore must share it.

You might be surprised by how often something like this is considered.

The first order issue is that it requires everyone to agree on this course of action, which I have personally never seen happen in games where no voting minimum exists.

The underlying concern is that a lack of a D1 execution tends to just make D2 end up feeling like a D1 vote, without much information but now with one less villager due to the elim night kill.

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

... I'm very confused.

I don't know if I'll be able to get up before rollover tomorrow or not... that's 7:00 AM for me, and I've been waking up quite the much later than that...

It does seem like there's a few sets of PMs around... one of which I've gotten, the rest seem to be making this volatile.

High five we have the same time zone. And potentially the same aversion to waking up before 7am 

I mean, for what it's worth, I am unaware of anyone actively coordinating voting from within PMs. But there is definitely a lot of random conversations going on in there, and the contents of these random conversations occasionally become relevant. But yeah when in doubt, and I am definitely still a bit confused about the whole Ventyl thing, I'm planning on just basing voting decisions on the stuff I can see in the thread, and just assuming that whatever is happening in PMs will make its way into the thread if it's really important.

I am kind of tempted to start on a mechanical analysis of each role or something, in a shameless attempt to grub for boxings but also because apparently nobody has done that yet and usually that is a thing people seem to do on D1.

[Flyingbooks]

Veren watched the discussion, idly twirling their pencil in their hands. They searched for potential allies and people in useful positions more than rebels. They would be happy to catch the rebels, but it wasn’t their first priority. The rebels were present here & potentially dangerous and Veren was stuck here because of their actions, but those were both situations that they could try to turn to their advantage. And if the rebels tried to kill them, they could probably spin up an argument about how they were trying to change the status quo too, albeit in a different manner, so Veren wasn’t as worried as they could be about that.

It’d certainly be a good idea to get in touch with Earl, the journalist. The ability to influence what people all over Elendel read about this situation would be powerful. He seemed to disappear every so often though and he had been gone for the past few hours, so it might be difficult to find him.

Juno was… certainly creative and open to new ideas. She might not be particularly consistent in the ideas she espoused, but original ideas would be vital to changing the balance of power in Elendel.

Josephine and Lumen were both in positions which were often overlooked but potentially powerful. Now, Veren might be a bit biased here because they had a similar position as an assistant to the Elendel representatives, but it really was true that working behind the scenes could be immensely effective.

-------

My incomplete thoughts about a few people:

DrakeMarshall

They put out a potential elim strategy, which points a bit in favor of them being village, but the phrasing makes me a bit gut-suspicious

On 5/29/2021 at 3:35 PM, DrakeMarshall said:

I wouldn't worry too much about differentiating kandra and elims at this point: if we can manage to catch either today we're already doing quite well

???

This strikes me as a bit strange. It's not immediately, obviously suspicioius, but it feels a bit off to me

They said literally the most obvious things in their thoughts about the roles, and later said that they weren't trying to inflate the word count of that post. That makes it feel a bit like trying to look helpful while not really adding anything

Their more recent posts feel less suspicious to me. Maybe they're just getting used to playing again, either as an elim or a villager?

Ventyl

Doing everything “for comedic value” draws a lot of negative attention, which an elim especially wouldn’t want this early in the game, so that makes me read them as slight village.

Archer

They immediately startied to do useful analysis from the beginning, which makes me read them as leaning village, plus my gut read on them is positive.

Experience

The votes on experience seem to mostly be because of their inactivity. I won't be joining that train because it feels wrong to vote out somebody before they can even play at all, much less defend themselves.

 

I think that I will switch my vote from Dannex to DrakeMarshall, since I'm a bit suspicious of them for the reasons outlined above. I will most likely not be on again until after the cycle ends.

 

(also, I would very much appreciate more PMs)

 

[Araris Valerian]

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

But on the subject of voting philosophy and killing, I mean this in the nicest way possible but Araris.

I have more or less three reasons for doing this:

• Earlier you said something along the lines that if the votes don't change much as we approach the end of the cycle, it is more likely that the folks with votes are village. More recently, you said you are happy with both Experience and Matrim as possible exes. But to me it pretty much looks like the votes have been on those two and are staying there, which would imply that we will have better luck looking elsewhere, if I am following your own reasoning correctly. What gives?
• I am still slightly suspicious of the remark that seems to assume that vote manipulation would only help the village, which seems like a potential instance of TMI, like if elim!Araris knows his team does not have access to vote manips.
• I'm becoming less in favor of the experience vote than I was. I suppose I would somewhat prefer it to Matrim, but, I'm not above trying something else first. I would invite others to either consider joining me or make the case that I should change my vote.

The philosophy only works if we actually follow the initial votes of this cycle to their conclusion, given that few other options have naturally risen. Elim!Araris (and village!Araris, I must admit) is often very happy to ignore a C1 vote on himself because if you just wait and ignore it long enough, people move on. Based on that experience, I’m not (moving my vote, that is). I’m actually more curious to see a flip from Mat now that you appear to be actively defending him. Like, what good is any early vote C1 if everyone knows it will just always move? This is the entire point behind a stab vote. Sometimes the votes just need to stay.

With regards to me having TMI, I simply didn’t make the assumption you say I did. I assume that vote manipulation will make the outcome of the vote less predictable for the elims. Hence, if an elim is in danger, the elims will want to make the outcome more predictable through action in the thread. It’s basically the meta these days for elims to have vote manip. But that doesn’t mean it’s not a significant risk to leave things close.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I have not been paying attention at all this turn and one read through of all the posts isn't helping very much. I have no strong reason to vote either Mat or Exp over the other, or any of the other candidates for that matter. I do get a boxing for voting, not that this makes a huge difference, so we'll go for Mist, for posting without going for the extra boxing of a vote. Entirely possible that she will cast a vote, but I will not be around to see it this turn.

[StrikerEZ]

With about 25 minutes left, here's the current VC!

Matrim's Dice (3): Araris Valerian, manukos, Szeth_Pancakes
Experience (2): Archer, Ventyl
Ventyl (2): Biplet, Matrim's Dice
Araris Valerian (1): DrakeMarshall
DrakeMarshall (1): Flyingbooks
Mist (1): Devotary of Spontaneity
Szeth_Pancakes (1): |TJ|

[Mat]

8 hours ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Matrim's Dice: Mild Elim - They're acting very similarly to both the games I've played with you. The thing is, they were elim in both of them.

-_-. Dude the whole point of acting villagery as elim is so that it's not heckin obvious when I roll elim. My elim playstyle looks like my village one smh.

Why am I the leading train? Seriously though

1. Meaningless retaliation poke (@manukos)
2. Araris stab vote
3. Because I'm acting similar to how I did in an elim game when the whole point of this game is to act village as elim.

If I'm being voted off, I want an actual reason please. Haven't seen that yet.

Experience

[|TJ|]

Hmmm, as of now, my vote looks to be a waste. I don't like the reasoning behind Mat's elimination, and right now, it looks like he's being voted out for nothing. I'd rather give Mat more time as he's a good villager and Experience isn't any better, but if we're gonna CC then it's better to do it now and preferable to an active player's elimination.

[+Lotus]

Dang it I did not realize rollover was going to be this early for me. Should have actually paid attention to the time

[Ashbringer]

... I seem to remember leading an exe against an inactive last game, in place of (I think) Mat... and that didn't go well. But it's a D1 exe...

Aaaand there's TJ.

I'll vote Experience. I'd rather keep it away from a tie.