Mid-Range Game 47: Conflict of Superiority

[Mat he/him]

Yeahhhh there is an element of trust involved. But it works and I wouldn’t apply it to every situation. I’ve never brought it up before.

This makes me more sure of my vote, too.

I’m leaving for awhile. I’d be very disappointed if I come back dead because I didn’t feel like outing my village strategy.

[Quintessential she/her]

1 hour ago, Straw said:

Thirding Danex and Matrim on this. Right now I really think that you should share your suspicion. C1 is always a bit harder than other cycles, so we need all the discussion and thoughts that we can get. Especially considering that a lot of the current votes are just pokes, another legitimate vote would be a great help IMO.

Archer did give their reasoning. It was a "shot in the dark" and they have a neutral read on Snipexe. Should be seven posts above yours if I count correctly. As for my reasoning, here's an expanded version below.

The first suspicious post from Snipexe is this one:

It's hard to describe what's exactly suspicious about this post, and I do think it's only mildly suspicious. IMO it's kind of odd that Snipexe mentions future posts and poke votes to come. It feels like a way to have an excuse not to do anything for a while.

The second red flag from Snipexe, and the much more major one, is this post:

In this post, Snipexe repeatedly says that the C1 vote is "random chance" and emphasizes the low odds of hitting an elim. He also casts doubt on the quality of the information from C1. IMO this seems suspicious since it's preemptively casting doubt on any information gained from this turn, which benefits the elims no matter what happens.

Another odd thing is how Snipexe doesn't acknowledge posts and votes as a source of information. The things that he lists as possible sources of information: actions, death flips, PMs, vote manip. I'm not sure if this bit is exactly suspicious, but I certainly think it's worth noting.

 I asked Archer for more information too... 

Thank you for the reasoning on Snipexe. While I don't think that their statement that the C1 vote rarely hits an elim is AI, since in my (admittedly limited) experience that's just kinda true, now that you've pointed it out I'm realizing that they do seem to be overly quick to dismiss info gained from C1... slight elim read on Snipexe for that.

52 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

It’s possible Ventyl is jumping on what seems an easy enough train to go on. That’s enough for me, right now.

Yes, I noticed this as well--I'm thinking that Ventyl/Snipexe might be e/e, and for the moment reading them as both slight elim.

38 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Rather not, tbh. I find the strategy useful and it would be more so not widely known. I don’t actually know if that’s what Archer is doing, but if so is a legitimate reason to keep a suspicion to himself.

I still don't like this refusal to share information; however, if an explanation isn't forthcoming eventually as to what exactly Archer is trying to do, and what Matrim thought Archer was trying to do (if the two things aren't the same), we can always vote them off later. I think elim!Matrim would realize this, and not try to defend Archer by claiming the existence of a strategy that just doesn't exist. Also, I would guess that elim!Archer would just share whatever suspicion they have, since an elim wouldn't have much to lose by doing that as far as I can tell. So I'm inclined to read them both village for now, though that could change if we never do get an explanation of all this.

 

26 minutes ago, Breaker said:

The problem is that this is not situation-specific. Someone could claim this, giving no evidence, in all cases whatsoever. The problem is like with Kantian ethics. You’ve got to generalize this action to all cases. If “I have a secret strategy” is applied to all cases, the village is doomed. 

edit: I do hope I’m not coming across too strong as a newbie. I’m a believer in sharing an argument with the expectation it might well be defeated, but I understand I may come across as a bit much. I am confident of little, as of yet, I therefore acknowledge. 

I mean, elims always have secret strategies and generally they don't openly announce their existence on the main thread XD (this is my main reason for reading Matrim/Archer as vil). 

Also, you are absolutely not coming across as a newbie lol... my first game I tried to say as little as possible and most of what I did say was hesitant and/or incorrect (sometimes on purpose since I was elim but still). You seem to have a fairly good idea of what's going on anyway.

25 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

Archer

Matrim’s Dice

k so this also makes me a little nervous about Ventyl... as soon as we called them out for a vote we thought was suspicious, they switched and voted for someone else? Though that almost seems TWTBAW (too wolfy to be a wolf) to borrow a phrase of Illwei's.

I'll hold off on voting for the moment, since I'd like to make sure I can prevent a tie or a close vote if one seems likely (in addition to ties being... worse than usual? in this game, I have an aversion to ties after what happened during the first part of LG72). However, if it doesn't seem like my vote could be used elsewhere, I'm leaning towards voting Ventyl.

Edit: also @Elandera could we get a vote count? Thanks  

Edited December 24, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Guest Breaker]

To clarify, I hope I, as a newbie, am not coming across too strong, ie, as forceful, arrogant, or aggressive. 

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Breaker said:

To clarify, I hope I, as a newbie, am not coming across too strong, ie, as forceful, arrogant, or aggressive. 

Oh lol no you're fine

[Archer he/him]

I have no idea what Matrim is talking about. That is to say, we haven’t ever talked strategy or played together. But I do think it’s possible that an observer could figure out what I’m trying to do, especially if they have done the same thing before, even if I came up with it independently. If I explain my strategy, it probably won’t convince Araris to move their vote because I am unsure what their reasoning is for voting me. And Breaker seems to be following the thread closely, so they might end up voting someone else anyway as the conversation develops. Those are risks I’m willing to take to maintain my usefulness later on. Again, the calculation is that I’m being unhelpful to the village right now, but I will become more dangerous to the elims later because of it. I was originally going to be a lot more low profile in order to avoid having to advertise my scheming, but I got pinged and voted on so here I am.

I’m a little concerned we might be tunneling in on Snipexe just because they happened to have poke votes on them. I’ve noticed people tend to narrow the options in their mind to just people who we have a chance of mobbing. That said, that’s how we catch people: we make people defend themselves and they slip up and reveal their roles. So I’m glad to see the situation remains fluid. I could claim to have applied the same analysis as Straw when choosing Snipexe to vote, but that’s untrue. It was a random guess and I haven’t had a good enough reason to switch it. They’ve emerged as as much suspicious as anyone so far.

Ghanderflaffe’s making me nervous. Not in an Elim way, but in a likely to bandwagon kind of way. They asked for a vote count when there was one posted a few posts prior, which makes me think they’re likely skimming and may have missed some stuff. That said, last game I played with them, they didn’t vote much, so perhaps it won’t amount to anything. I expect Breaker to play this game like I played my first one, which will also make them a wild card. Both of your playstyles are perfectly valid by the way, they just make me feel less secure. 

[Guest Breaker]

Oh? Please, tell me how you think I’m trying to play. I’m actually quite curious what is thought of me, and what strategies people think of. 

[xinoehp512 he/him]

Snipexe (2) - Straw, Archer
Archer (1) - Araris Valerian
Ventyl (2) - StrikerEZ, Matrim
Straw (1) - Ashbringer
Matrim's Dice (2) - Breaker, Ventyl
Quinn (1) - Xino

A three way tie, and just over six hours to resolve it. Not soon enough for me to feel forced to vote for one of the primary lynch targets: nonetheless, I will give my thoughts.

Snipexe's posts can be construed as suspicious, but I don't know I agree with the analysis performed on them. I certainly won't discount the possibility of elimness, but Snip has a neutral read from me for now.

Ventyl's votes do have an element of bandwagony-ness to them, even if both of the votes he doubled were made prior to the reason he doubled them. Regardless, I don't buy @Quinn0928's idea that Ventyl changed votes because he was called out. @Ventyl, care to elaborate?

Matrim is hard for me to read at the moment. I don't think I disagree with his current position: If hidden strategies were forbidden for the village, PM's would never be a thing. Araris, you've refused to give reasonings to your votes before, and I see that as equivalent to this instance. Certainly not every strategy should be secret; however, that doesn't mean that none should. Unless Archer or Matrim uses this "secret" to cause confusion and discord, I don't consider it suspicious. I do expect an explanation at some point, however; @Archer, @Matrim's Dice, when will you be able to tell us your secrets?

@Quinn0928 (Quinn), vote now or vote later, you'll still be able to resolve ties. It is not an excuse.

[Guest Breaker]

As a counterpoint, with regards to secrets, a secret reason to trust someone is more suspicious than a secret reason to execute someone, strange as that sounds. 

[Archer he/him]

15 minutes ago, Breaker said:

Oh? Please, tell me how you think I’m trying to play. I’m actually quite curious what is thought of me, and what strategies people think of. 

The norm for this site is elims generally keep a low profile. My first game, I was an Elim and I was very vocal. There's two new players in this game, and so far you've been very active while the other (whose name I forget, sorry) has been pretty quiet. If you're an Elim, you're doing a good job trolling us. There's nothing wrong with being active, so it consider non alignment indicative for new players. You're cool. 

11 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Matrim is hard for me to read at the moment. I don't think I disagree with his current position: If hidden strategies were forbidden for the village, PM's would never be a thing. Araris, you've refused to give reasonings to your votes before, and I see that as equivalent to this instance. Certainly not every strategy should be secret; however, that doesn't mean that none should. Unless Archer or Matrim uses this "secret" to cause confusion and discord, I don't consider it suspicious. I do expect an explanation at some point, however; @Archer, @Matrim's Dice, when will you be able to tell us your secrets? 

I'm not going to commit to a specific time frame. But the longer this goes without me producing something, the more suspicious you'll all be, so I'll bear that in mind. 

And as a note, even if votes are added or moved via roles, the doctor can protect someone. In the first round, I'd either protect whoever is in 2nd to prevent a tie being made and a double kill happening, or protect an obviously villagey person because they're the likely targets of an Elim kill. There's a chance they'll do the first and we'll be fine mobbing with tight margins. That said, better safe than sorry!

[Quintessential she/her]

12 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Snipexe (2) - Straw, Archer
Archer (1) - Araris Valerian
Ventyl (2) - StrikerEZ, Matrim
Straw (1) - Ashbringer
Matrim's Dice (2) - Breaker, Ventyl
Quinn (1) - Xino

@Quinn0928 (Quinn), vote now or vote later, you'll still be able to resolve ties. It is not an excuse.

 Ventyl for reasons stated in my last post.

My reluctance to vote hasn't just been caused by my desire to be able to prevent ties, though perhaps I've been overemphasizing that part of it. I've also noticed that I have an unfortunate tendency to change my mind with each new post during C1, and if I vote early I then find myself constantly shifting my vote from person to person to try to keep up with my own current opinions. Most recently, see LG72 D1, where I voted someone, shifted my vote off of them, voted them again, and then shifted my vote off of them again, and where my final vote ended up contributing to a tie (which didn't exactly end favorably for the village either). My point is, I partly wanted to try to avoid doing that this game, and cast a vote with more certainty. Which I've now done. I may have waited a bit long and overcorrected, despite that I think I feel better about how I've acted this cycle than I usually do.

That... ended up being longer than I intended oof

1 minute ago, Archer said:

And as a note, even if votes are added or moved via roles, the doctor can protect someone. In the first round, I'd either protect whoever is in 2nd to prevent a tie being made and a double kill happening, or protect an obviously villagey person because they're the likely targets of an Elim kill. There's a chance they'll do the first and we'll be fine mobbing with tight margins. That said, better safe than sorry!

The doctor can only protect from Tenasi and elim kills, I believe.

[BrightEyes2 she/her]

18 minutes ago, Archer said:

The norm for this site is elims generally keep a low profile. My first game, I was an Elim and I was very vocal. There's two new players in this game, and so far you've been very active while the other (whose name I forget, sorry) has been pretty quiet. If you're an Elim, you're doing a good job trolling us. 

You are good :). Well, as I am the 2nd new person, I will try to be a bit more vocal (I've been paying attention but just not posting). 

I agree with Straw on Snipexe being suspicious, but don't have any conclusions of my own.

 

[Straw he/him]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Ghanderflaffe’s making me nervous. Not in an Elim way, but in a likely to bandwagon kind of way. They asked for a vote count when there was one posted a few posts prior, which makes me think they’re likely skimming and may have missed some stuff. That said, last game I played with them, they didn’t vote much, so perhaps it won’t amount to anything. I expect Breaker to play this game like I played my first one, which will also make them a wild card. Both of your playstyles are perfectly valid by the way, they just make me feel less secure. 

I've been getting pinged by Ghander as well, but not in a "this post is suspicious way" so much as the fact that they've made five posts so far but none of them really say anything.

"I expect Breaker to play this game like I played my first one, which will also make them a wild card."
So wait, you're reading Breaker as an elim? You were an elim in your first game.

I don't have much more stuff, but here's an update on my reads (this is adding more to my previous reads, not my full read, see my past reads post):

Quinn - very mild elim - doesn't want to vote, open to voting anyone, will bandwagon at end
Archer - very mild elim - will not reveal suspicion
Quinn - mild village - prompts Archer, asks Snipexe reasoning
Ventyl - very mild elim - weird switch to Matrim

Ghander - very mild elim - hasn't really said anything despite having a fair number of posts
Archer - mild village - kind of feel like Archer would have just revealed if he was an elim
Matrim - very mild village - gut feeling

This updates my readlist to:

Breaker - mild village
Archer - very mild village
Quinn - very mild village
Matrim - neutral
Araris - very mild elim
Ghander - very mild elim
Ventyl - very mild elim
Snipexe - mild elim

I'd like to hear more from @Araris Valerian and @Ghanderflaffle.

Also, @BrightEyes2, not sure if you're around, but any thoughts on the game so far?

EDIT: Brighteyes, disregard the last bit, didn't see your post.

Edited December 24, 2020 by Straw

[Elandera she/her]

34 minutes ago, Archer said:

And as a note, even if votes are added or moved via roles, the doctor can protect someone. In the first round, I'd either protect whoever is in 2nd to prevent a tie being made and a double kill happening, or protect an obviously villagey person because they're the likely targets of an Elim kill. There's a chance they'll do the first and we'll be fine mobbing with tight margins. That said, better safe than sorry!

32 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

The doctor can only protect from Tenasi and elim kills, I believe.

Quinn is correct. The rules specify that the Varvax Leader can protect from the Suppression and Tenasi kills. The vote (deposing) is not included.

There's about 4 and a half hours left.

Vote Count:

Snipexe (2) - Straw, Archer
Archer (1) - Araris Valerian
Ventyl (3) - StrikerEZ, Matrim, Quinn
Straw (1) - Ashbringer
Matrim's Dice (2) - Breaker, Ventyl
Quinn (1) - Xino

 

[Ghanderflaffle she/her]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Ghanderflaffe’s making me nervous. Not in an Elim way, but in a likely to bandwagon kind of way. They asked for a vote count when there was one posted a few posts prior, which makes me think they’re likely skimming and may have missed some stuff. That said, last game I played with them, they didn’t vote much, so perhaps it won’t amount to anything. I expect Breaker to play this game like I played my first one, which will also make them a wild card. Both of your playstyles are perfectly valid by the way, they just make me feel less secure. 

I remember reading it, I just forgot where it was and decided to be lazy about going back and looking for it.

 

I don’t have a ton to say yet. I’ve never been great at reads, especially c1. I’ve read through some posts and just don’t see anyone as much of an elim yet. I do kind of agree with the Ventyl being a bit sus, but at the same time I don’t feel like I’ve heard enough from them yet to decide.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

I don’t have much time right now, and won’t be able to get back on until just before the cycle is over. I just want to say that I am actually very much pro-ties. If we tie a bunch of people, we force people to make moves. Whether that’s in thread or with secret votes, we learn who people want dead and who they want alive. And once we get alignments, knowing who certain people wanted to keep alive is very revealing.

As of right now, people I trust the least are Straw, Archer, Snip, and Matrim. I think Ventyl is just being himself, but I could be wrong about him. 

I’m going to move my vote from Ventyl to Archer. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

If I explain my strategy, it probably won’t convince Araris to move their vote because I am unsure what their reasoning is for voting me.

My original reason to vote on you was that we need to depose somebody, and I picked you at random. I think explained earlier why I haven't changed since them.

 

42 minutes ago, Archer said:

The norm for this site is elims generally keep a low profile.

I think it actually tends to be fairly representative of the players in the game. I'm pretty sure I maintain the same amount of aggressiveness regardless of my alignment. However, there has been a recent influx of new players, most of whom tend to lie low while learning the ropes.

[Guest Breaker]

27 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I don’t have much time right now, and won’t be able to get back on until just before the cycle is over. I just want to say that I am actually very much pro-ties. If we tie a bunch of people, we force people to make moves. Whether that’s in thread or with secret votes, we learn who people want dead and who they want alive. And once we get alignments, knowing who certain people wanted to keep alive is very revealing.

Valid, but this is just applicable in certain types of ties, such as when we purposefully tie two people we suspect to try to force the hand of the DPS. In most other cases, we expose ourselves to high-risk situations that can easily indicate numerous things. Ties are to be created only when we can force someone’s hand, or if we kill a vote manipulating DPS, in my opinion. 

35 minutes ago, Straw said:

"I expect Breaker to play this game like I played my first one, which will also make them a wild card."
So wait, you're reading Breaker as an elim? You were an elim in your first game.

My honest opinion is that this sounds like bad faith interrogation, that the intention behind the initial statement was rather clear. If I am wrong, and you do read this differently from me, I genuinely do apologize for such a harsh accusation. Further, I hope I'm not stepping on the toes of your investigation, if this was a purposefully shallow attack. 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Breaker

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, xinoehp512 said:

@Archer, @Matrim's Dice, when will you be able to tell us your secrets?

My secret is not game specific at all. It's simply a village strategy I've used to catch an elim before, and I was using it as an example to show how I understood what Archer's game specific secret could be. So the answer is probably never, but that doesn't actually affect the game. Honestly I wish people would drop the whole thing :P.

---

Archer: Disregarding his 'strategy' entirely, I like Archer's posts. They feel very sincere and thought out, with good points. Whatever he's holding back clearly has a reason. Village.

xinoehp512: Similar to Archer, I like and agree with the most of his points, especially concerning Snipexe. Mild Village.

Straw: I'm fighting my initial gut-elim read on Straw, because his reads are really good. Slight Village/Neutral. 

Snipexe: I very much agree with xino and Archer's thoughts on Snipexe. He's a solid neutral read to me. 

Ventyl: Same as before. Mild Elim

All others are null/haven't decided enough yet.

(Though Breaker, the mods ask we don't double post, instead editing any new thoughts into the first post.)

[Snipexe he/him]

3 hours ago, Straw said:

In this post, Snipexe repeatedly says that the C1 vote is "random chance" and emphasizes the low odds of hitting an elim. He also casts doubt on the quality of the information from C1. IMO this seems suspicious since it's preemptively casting doubt on any information gained from this turn, which benefits the elims no matter what happens.

Another odd thing is how Snipexe doesn't acknowledge posts and votes as a source of information. The things that he lists as possible sources of information: actions, death flips, PMs, vote manip. I'm not sure if this bit is exactly suspicious, but I certainly think it's worth noting.

The points you make are very valid. It definitely makes sense to interpret what I was saying this way. I do feel, however, that you may be slightly misunderstanding my intent with that post, which is entirely my fault for not making it clear. My intent way to illustrate that I tend to view the D1 Village vote as being random, as a means to show why I'm opposed to an intentional tie. This is because in general D1 usually breaks down into some form of elim posturing, poke votes, and game speculation of some sort. Obviously there are exceptions to this, and I do think I did a poor job acknowledging them. It isn’t truly random, as I posited, but, at least in my opinion, the reasoning people use to vote on each other tends to be far flimsier than during the next cycles, resulting in it being effectively random. Most, if not all, non-poke D1 votes are based on gut feel, and the way a post reads, rather than harder evidence like actions or voting history (Of course there are votes during D1, however I will address that later). There isn’t anything inherently wrong with that, it just means that who gets voted out depends entirely upon the way their posts are viewed by others, without any other evidence for context. This situation leads me to view the D1 village vote as being something significantly based more around random chance (As in the random chance that someone views a post you made as suspicious) rather than using hard evidence. 

My repeated emphasis of the low probability of hitting an elim was primarily a support for the argument I was making about a tie, rather than trying to discourage voting in general. 

You are right that I didn’t acknowledge posts or votes as information sources. This was a mistake, I genuinely just forgot to include them, but I would still disclude them as a D1 information source. This is because I don’t think they can necessarily be used as information during D1. After however they definitely are. Using posts and votes as information and/or evidence is primarily about understanding the context during which they were placed. For example, you can only use a vote or post as distancing if you have the context of one of the players being an elim. Otherwise that post can be viewed as genuinely suspicious. There is definitely elim manipulation and all sort of general evildoing going on during D1, but I genuinely think that during D1 it is impossible to distinguish what is genuine and what is not. There just isn’t enough context.

It was not my intent to cast doubt on the information we gained during this cycle. When I said “The information we get now won’t be as good as the information we could get later” what I was trying to explain was that if two people are killed by a tied vote this cycle, then we will have 1 cycle’s worth of posts from them. If however they were killed later, we have more cycles worth of posts and votes. Even if they are villagers, the more information we have to analyze with regard to their relationships with other players the better. Seeing as the tie is optional, I favor getting more information in the long run over a low chance of killing an elim in the short.

Please feel free to tag me if part of this seems unclear. 

[Guest Breaker]

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Though Breaker, the mods ask we don't double post, instead editing any new thoughts into the first post.)

Yes, I think I've fixed it. As soon as I saw the posts didn't auto-merge, I tried to fix that, since it's standard forum practice. My previous major forum experience, circa 2013, auto-merged, and the bad habit got the better of me. Sorry!

[Liranil she/her]

Okay, so I've been trying to keep up with everything, so if I mention something that's been discussed or already dismissed... just ignore it I guess. There's been a lot said already.

Right now Breaker is at the top of my suspect list, just because they seem to be acting very similar to Archer in their first game, where they were an elim (as several people mentioned). This may be completely wrong, but I've gotten the feeling that new players tend to be more active when they're elims because they know more of what's going on (anyone who has played more than one game, feel free to correct me on that, though). 

I'm also a little sus of Dannex from their role analysis post earlier, mostly because I'm wary of anyone who so strongly tells someone how to use their roles. 

My main worry are ties, though, especially if the elims could get three or four villagers tied if we don't lean on one person. I do agree that we could use the tie to our advantage, but only if we have enough information to be sure about at least one person. For round one, though, I'm saving my vote to (hopefully) help break a tie, if needed.

[Guest Breaker]

11 minutes ago, Liranil said:

Right now Breaker is at the top of my suspect list, just because they seem to be acting very similar to Archer in their first game, where they were an elim (as several people mentioned). This may be completely wrong, but I've gotten the feeling that new players tend to be more active when they're elims because they know more of what's going on (anyone who has played more than one game, feel free to correct me on that, though). 

Oho? Then come as close as you want. 

(I’m glad to see you also oppose ties. They serve the DPS.)

[Ashbringer he/him]

Hmm. Alright, Straw, for now. There's still something lingering about you but I'm not entirely sure what. I'm not the greatest fan of D1 exes, so I probably won't vote again, but Straw fulfilled what I asked.

I'm not entirely sure what to make of Snipexe or Archer. Archer did play the QF, but as an Elim, so it's not that unusual to act as a relatively new. Snipexe I'm... kinda finding myself agreeing with, in that there simply won't be much info gathered from a D1 *exe, especially from multiple people. Whether we land an Elim or a Villager.

I still think we need a *exe - and I will probably act to avoid ties - but I don't want to lynch Snipexe today.

Edit: *facepalm

Edited December 25, 2020 by Ashbringer

[Guest Breaker]

Isn’t that the no-no word?

[xinoehp512 he/him]

Vote Count:

Snipexe (2) - Straw, Archer
Archer (2) - Araris Valerian, StrikerEZ
Ventyl (3) - Matrim, Quinn, Xino
Matrim's Dice (2) - Breaker, Ventyl

A four way tie, with 2 and a half hours left in the cycle. This worries me. Ties are dangerous, and the more people involved the harder it is to derive information from them. For the sake of breaking the tie, Quinn, Ventyl. Of all the targets, I find him the most suspicious- all the others have explained themselves adequately, in my eyes. @Ventyl