Mid-Range Game 47: Conflict of Superiority

[Elandera she/her]

Vote Count:

Snipexe (2) - Straw, Archer
Archer (1) - Araris Valerian
Ventyl (1) - StrikerEZ
Straw (1) - Ashbringer
Ashbringer (1) - xinoehp512
Matrim's Dice (1) - Breaker

The turn ends in just under 10 hours.

[xinoehp512 he/him]

Well, I'll remove my vote on Ash. Quite odd that it should appear as such- but he site can, at times, be strange. You have posted now, and posted well enough.

Snipexe is ahead by a narrow margin. @Archer, what are your thoughts? It would not seem that your vote was founded in reasoning, unless you have taken up @Araris Valerian's cryptic ways. 

[Ghanderflaffle she/her]

Yea, @Archer was your vote just a poke? (Or just for the pun)

[Guest Breaker]

By the way, those who advised me on the extreme basics of SE — including who to fear — also tried to console me by explaining that newbies are often given a grace period, and are rarely targeted in the first two cycles. 
 

Feel free to consider me as any other player. I like to secure my own unfair advantages, not rely on others to give them. 

[Archer he/him]

The point of an obvious poke vote is to increase activity to give you more information to analyze. You can surmise from when my vote was cast that it was a joke poke, but I don't intend to advertise them as such going forward. Subtle pokes produce a stronger emotional reaction, which can be more helpful.

My vote on Snipexe was a shot in the dark. I have one Elim suspicion right now, but I'm keeping that to myself for the time being. The risk of dying with good information is lower than being killed for being right but not having enough to justify my guess to ensure I will be properly avenged. I have a neutral assessment of Snipexe, but he's as good a guess as anyone in my opinion. It also helps that mobbing him by a wide margin should protect me, although I expect Araris to reassess their vote sometime soon, so it's possible they might change and I'll be fine. I probably won't be around for the end of this cycle (re: Christmas stuff), so hopefully that doesn't produce a tie. I'm on Team No Tying Right Now. 

Beaker, you seem pretty village, so good news! You'll probably get night killed soon enough. Your one saving grace is the elims will probably prioritize targeting people who won't get protected over people who are obviously village for the first few cycles. 

[Guest Breaker]

Bring it on, DPS. I fear none of you. 

[dannnex male]

30 minutes ago, Archer said:

The point of an obvious poke vote is to increase activity to give you more information to analyze. You can surmise from when my vote was cast that it was a joke poke, but I don't intend to advertise them as such going forward. Subtle pokes produce a stronger emotional reaction, which can be more helpful.

My vote on Snipexe was a shot in the dark. I have one Elim suspicion right now, but I'm keeping that to myself for the time being. The risk of dying with good information is lower than being killed for being right but not having enough to justify my guess to ensure I will be properly avenged. I have a neutral assessment of Snipexe, but he's as good a guess as anyone in my opinion. It also helps that mobbing him by a wide margin should protect me, although I expect Araris to reassess their vote sometime soon, so it's possible they might change and I'll be fine. I probably won't be around for the end of this cycle (re: Christmas stuff), so hopefully that doesn't produce a tie. I'm on Team No Tying Right Now. 

Beaker, you seem pretty village, so good news! You'll probably get night killed soon enough. Your one saving grace is the elims will probably prioritize targeting people who won't get protected over people who are obviously village for the first few cycles. 

What? This whole post reads wrong to me. Basically boils down to:
“Hey don’t kill me, I might know something. wink wink”
Uses a lot of words to say a little bit of information, something that I’ve found to be a classic Elim tell. 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Dannex

[Guest Breaker]

Fair argument. That’s actually a bit sus. 

[Mat he/him]

In addition to Dannex: @Archer, keeping information to yourself, particularly suspicions, is not helpful to anyone. If you really are village you know that sharing information/thoughts is how we can win, so saying you have a suspect, not saying who, and not voting them is contrary to the village goal.

[Ghanderflaffle she/her]

What was the vote count?

[Archer he/him]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

In addition to Dannex: @Archer, keeping information to yourself, particularly suspicions, is not helpful to anyone. If you really are village you know that sharing information/thoughts is how we can win, so saying you have a suspect, not saying who, and not voting them is contrary to the village goal.

I understand that. What I have is a suspicion. Publicizing it isn't likely to greatly improve the conversation, but it is likely to prompt the Elim to change their behaviour. I believe that at this time, it's better for me to play my cards tight to my chest. I'm being transparent about that so it doesn't look like I'm ducking the conversation entirely, which would be more suspicious. 

2 hours ago, Elandera said:

Vote Count:

Snipexe (2) - Straw, Archer
Archer (1) - Araris Valerian
Ventyl (1) - StrikerEZ
Straw (1) - Ashbringer
Ashbringer (1) - xinoehp512
Matrim's Dice (1) - Breaker

The turn ends in just under 10 hours.

Ghander, this is up to date. ^ 

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Archer said:

I understand that. What I have is a suspicion. Publicizing it isn't likely to greatly improve the conversation, but it is likely to prompt the Elim to change their behaviour. I believe that at this time, it's better for me to play my cards tight to my chest. I'm being transparent about that so it doesn't look like I'm ducking the conversation entirely, which would be more suspicious. 

Archer, all we have right now are suspicions, and publicizing it now will make it seem less out-of-thin-air if it becomes stronger or more urgent later. Also, the best thing for the village is always to share info on suspicions and the reasoning behind them; that way, we can debate and organize and hopefully exe an elim or two in the near future, yeah? They have the advantage in communication already, so anything we can do to even that up helps. And our advantage is in numbers, so the more of us contribute and collaborate to solve the game, the better we'll do.

Also, I asked Matrim what the exact reasons for voting Snipexe were earlier, but he didn't respond--probably because he'd already removed his vote on Snipexe. So @Straw and @Archer, could I get an explanation? If Snipexe is exed this cycle, the reasons that everyone voted for them will be important information, and it's probably better to have everyone state their reasons clearly and explicitly now than try to have them remember later. (and I'm too lazy to go read back through the thread xD)

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

6 minutes ago, Archer said:

I understand that. What I have is a suspicion. Publicizing it isn't likely to greatly improve the conversation, but it is likely to prompt the Elim to change their behaviour. I believe that at this time, it's better for me to play my cards tight to my chest. I'm being transparent about that so it doesn't look like I'm ducking the conversation entirely, which would be more suspicious. 

Ghander, this is up to date. ^ 

However, if you shared the information, we would be able to see that change in behavior right? Your reluctance to share you’re ‘information’ is honestly quite suspicious. I would not mind X-ing you, Archer

[Mat he/him]

@Quinn0928, I never voted Snipexe, but my thoughts on him are akin to Straw’s.

[Quintessential she/her]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@Quinn0928, I never voted Snipexe, but my thoughts on him are akin to Straw’s.

Oh. Uh. Wow, I should have remembered that. You voted Straw.... I even went back and reread my post where I asked you about reasoning, and Straw's name is right there in red... I promise I'm usually smarter than this, you guys!

Edit: I've spent most of the day going back and forth between this and my frantic, last-ditch attempt at finishing my OB reread before I get my copy of RoW tomorrow, so I apologize if I say more random incorrect things like this, but that's probably why  I'm just a bit distracted is all

Edit edit: Who am I kidding, I say and do stuff like this even when I'm not distracted XD

Edited December 24, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I'm mostly popping in to say that I'm still comfortable with my vote. While I agree there can be value in not acting on a suspicion right away, I don't see any value in publicizing that you have a suspicion that you are unwilling to share. 

[Straw he/him]

10 minutes ago, Archer said:

I understand that. What I have is a suspicion. Publicizing it isn't likely to greatly improve the conversation, but it is likely to prompt the Elim to change their behaviour. I believe that at this time, it's better for me to play my cards tight to my chest. I'm being transparent about that so it doesn't look like I'm ducking the conversation entirely, which would be more suspicious. 

Thirding Danex and Matrim on this. Right now I really think that you should share your suspicion. C1 is always a bit harder than other cycles, so we need all the discussion and thoughts that we can get. Especially considering that a lot of the current votes are just pokes, another legitimate vote would be a great help IMO.

2 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Also, I asked Matrim what the exact reasons for voting Snipexe were earlier, but he didn't respond--probably because he'd already removed his vote on Snipexe. So @Straw and @Archer, could I get an explanation? If Snipexe is exed this cycle, the reasons that everyone voted for them will be important information, and it's probably better to have everyone state their reasons clearly and explicitly now than try to have them remember later. (and I'm too lazy to go read back through the thread xD)

Archer did give their reasoning. It was a "shot in the dark" and they have a neutral read on Snipexe. Should be seven posts above yours if I count correctly. As for my reasoning, here's an expanded version below.

The first suspicious post from Snipexe is this one:

Quote

Hello, one and all. I'm considering Rping, but I think at least at the moment I'd rather focus on writing in-game related things. We'll see how many posts I get up this cycle, and go from there I guess. Anyway, I'm not going to drop a poke vote yet, but depending on how many people show up by midday tomorrow I'll probably drop one then.

It's hard to describe what's exactly suspicious about this post, and I do think it's only mildly suspicious. IMO it's kind of odd that Snipexe mentions future posts and poke votes to come. It feels like a way to have an excuse not to do anything for a while.

The second red flag from Snipexe, and the much more major one, is this post:

Quote

I disagree with this. While it is true that the village's voting is what gives it power, I don't think a double execution is necessarily a good idea this early in the game. The probability of discovering a legitimate Elim first cycle is practically 0. There's no evidence of actions, there hasn't been a vote-out yet meaning we don't know any roles/alignments, and there haven't been any pms yet. The village vote is effectively random chance C1. Gaining information is important, either via vote manip or on-death role reveals. However, it also means people are dying. Our chance of killing villagers this cycle is much higher than hitting elims with a kill, and every village kill is a step closer to Lylo. Having more random kills now rather than informed kills later doesn't really help us. The information we get now won't be as good as the information we could get later. I think double kills can be good, for all the reasons you listed. I just think random double kills aren't. 

In this post, Snipexe repeatedly says that the C1 vote is "random chance" and emphasizes the low odds of hitting an elim. He also casts doubt on the quality of the information from C1. IMO this seems suspicious since it's preemptively casting doubt on any information gained from this turn, which benefits the elims no matter what happens.

Another odd thing is how Snipexe doesn't acknowledge posts and votes as a source of information. The things that he lists as possible sources of information: actions, death flips, PMs, vote manip. I'm not sure if this bit is exactly suspicious, but I certainly think it's worth noting.

[Mat he/him]

Hmm.

I’ll stick a vote on Ventyl.

I realized, just now, what village!Archer is likely trying to do. I’ve done the same thing many times, or tried to. So I’ve decided that Archer not sharing his thoughts isn’t a reason to exe him, and that he’s not elim for it. (Though I will say when I try something like what I believe Archer is trying I typically don’t publicly say I have a suspicion I’m not sharing ) Not going to mention it specifically, because strategy.

It’s possible Ventyl is jumping on what seems an easy enough train to go on. That’s enough for me, right now.

[Guest Breaker]

Admittedly, that’s rather condemning of Snip. That said, I’d rather resolve the tension surrounding Archer first. So, I’ll be shifting my vote to Archer if the suspicion isn’t voiced by the end of the cycle, perhaps sooner. It’s already inevitable to come to conflict, so a decisive resolution best serves the department. 

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hmm.

I’ll stick a vote on Ventyl.

I realized, just now, what village!Archer is likely trying to do. I’ve done the same thing many times, or tried to. So I’ve decided that Archer not sharing his thoughts isn’t a reason to exe him, and that he’s not elim for it. (Though I will say when I try something like what I believe Archer is trying I typically don’t publicly say I have a suspicion I’m not sharing ) Not going to mention it specifically, because strategy.

It’s possible Ventyl is jumping on what seems an easy enough train to go on. That’s enough for me, right now.

Mmm, clue me in. What exactly is it that Archer is trying to do? And iirc, I’m only the second person to vote on Archer, I’d hardly call that a train.

EDIT: 

And the one person who voted on him before me was Araris, and it was a stab vote at the very beginning of the cycle...

Edited December 24, 2020 by Ventyl

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

Mmm, clue me in. What exactly is it that Archer is trying to do? And iirc, I’m only the second person to vote on Archer, I’d hardly call that a train.

EDIT: 

And the one person who voted on him before me was Araris, and it was a stab vote at the very beginning of the cycle...

Rather not, tbh. I find the strategy useful and it would be more so not widely known. I don’t actually know if that’s what Archer is doing, but if so is a legitimate reason to keep a suspicion to himself.

Currently Archer is up for exe, tied with Snipexe. It’s the most trainy we have. (What would you call that, though, if not a train?)

What I meant by train was more neutral than how it’s typically used. Basically I meant “Ventyl is jumping to vote on someone for reasons already widely agreed/talked about, and I find that suspicious.”

[Guest Breaker]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Rather not, tbh. I find the strategy useful and it would be more so not widely known. I don’t actually know if that’s what Archer is doing, but if so is a legitimate reason to keep a suspicion to himself.

Sus.

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Breaker said:

Sus.

No no no, you see, this is like what Archer is doing, right? And his thing is not sus.

But that reasoning won’t work for someone who things his thing is.

lemme explain: I have a strategy I use as a villager sometimes. If the elims knew what it was, it wouldn’t work. So me saying it renders it useless. It is not sus, it is further strategy.

Edited December 24, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Guest Breaker]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

No no no, you see, this is like what Archer is doing, right? And his thing is not sus.

But that reasoning won’t work for someone who things his thing is.

lemme explain: I have a strategy I use as a villager sometimes. If the elims knew what it was, it wouldn’t work. So me saying it renders it useless. It is not sus, it is further strategy.

The problem is that this is not situation-specific. Someone could claim this, giving no evidence, in all cases whatsoever. The problem is like with Kantian ethics. You’ve got to generalize this action to all cases. If “I have a secret strategy” is applied to all cases, the village is doomed. 
 

edit: I do hope I’m not coming across too strong as a newbie. I’m a believer in sharing an argument with the expectation it might well be defeated, but I understand I may come across as a bit much. I am confident of little, as of yet, I therefore acknowledge. 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Breaker

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

No no no, you see, this is like what Archer is doing, right? And his thing is not sus.

But that reasoning won’t work for someone who things his thing is.

lemme explain: I have a strategy I use as a villager sometimes. If the elims knew what it was, it wouldn’t work. So me saying it renders it useless. It is not sus, it is further strategy.

Archer

Whatever happened to sharing information with the village means we win? 

Just now, Breaker said:

The problem is that this is not situation-specific. Someone could claim this, giving no evidence, in all cases whatsoever. The problem is like with Kantian ethics. You’ve got to generalize this action to all cases. If “I have a secret strategy” is applied to all cases, the village is doomed. 

This.

Matrim’s Dice