Mid-Range Game 47: Conflict of Superiority

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

Just now, Breaker said:

 That was the pre-narrowing-down list. One that included a bunch of people. You didn’t make the final. You’re fine! 

This:

2 minutes ago, Somebody from Sel said:

*sighs* I was asking how I wanted I person dead when I wasn't there, I realize that I was taken off for inactivity, I want to know how I was on it in the first place.

 

[Guest Breaker]

Just now, Somebody from Sel said:

This:

 

Mountain out of a molehill, it sounds like. You’re fine!  That list had a TON of people at first. You know, everyone alive. You were quickly removed. For the reasons you list. This is kinda a weird complaint....

[dannnex male]

14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That's assuming it was a fear kill, which I'm not fully buying.

I'll continue with your list, because how you took that down makes a lot of sense. Likewise, I know I'm not an elim, so out my name goes! (Though I'm inserting yours back in )

• Quinn0928, Dannex, Archer, Snipexe, StrikerEZ, xinoehp512, Ashbringer

Gut village read on Quinn, same for Striker, maybe because of his hesitance on Ventyl. (iirc he said that he read Ventyl as just being normal, not elim)

• Dannex, Archer, Snipexe, xinoehp512, Ashbringer

I trust Archer.

• Dannex, Snipexe, xinoehp512, Ashbringer

There's a much more narrow list. I realize Ash's is much more useful, as he narrowed his down by fact (or some form of it) and I narrowed mine down by reads, sort of thinking out loud. I'll keep my vote where it is, though.

This post makes me very suspicious, and not just because I’m one of the people he thinks is sus. This post seems very weird to me because it seems like Matrim is just continuing off of Ashbringer’s post (which I actually think makes a lot of sense), but if you look at his reasoning, it’s completely subjective. He presents the list as if it’s a logical continuation of Ash’s, as if that’s the new list that we should base further conclusions on, but it isn’t, at all. It removes people completely based on gut reads. 

Matrim’s Dice

Edit: Ninja’d by Breaker, who actually came to the same conclusion as me. Not jumping on a train, we came to the same conclusion independently.

Edited December 26, 2020 by Dannex

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

Just now, Breaker said:

Mountain out of a molehill, it sounds like. You’re fine!  That list had a TON of people at first. You know, everyone alive. You were quickly removed. For the reasons you list. This is kinda a weird complaint....

It's not a complaint, they said "Let's see if we can figure out who decided to kill Araris." That therefore means people who wanted Araris killed for one reason or another aren't on the list.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Somebody from Sel said:

*sighs* I was asking how I wanted I person dead when I wasn't there, I realize that I was taken off for inactivity, I want to know how I was on it in the first place.

...Because Ash copy-pasted the entire player list onto his original set.

1 minute ago, Breaker said:

So, a list full of gut reactions, meaning no evidence. Just muddying the waters and whiting out a good resource. No accountability or explanation, really. I’ll vote for Matrim’s dice, my initial vote I held onto until the end of last cycle. sorry if I’m sounding mean; I’m still learning the proper etiquette and limits here; dramatic talk is fun. I truly apologize if I overstep.

You're not overstepping. (Hello, white text)

I still don't like the 'voting on the person who voted on me' reasoning, though I understand that's not what you said in that particular post. It's not whittling a good resource, I didn't take away from Ash's list- and I even said his was better for the people. Like I already said, my list was purely me thinking out loud. People who look at it can agree, or not, but either way it 1. Helps me think and narrow down my suspects and 2. Lets people know what I think, which we already all agreed was the best situation.

Just now, Dannex said:

This post makes me very suspicious, and not just because I’m one of the people he thinks is sus. This post seems very weird to me because it seems like Matrim is just continuing off of Ashbringer’s post (which I actually think makes a lot of sense), but if you look at his reasoning, it’s completely subjective. He presents the list as if it’s a logical continuation of Ash’s, as if that’s the new list that we should base further conclusions on, but it isn’t, at all. It removes people completely based on gut reads. 

Matrim’s Dice

I don't think you're sus specifically. You're on the end of that list because Ash took you that far down and I haven't had any particular gut reaction to you. 

For the rest, see above. I don't expect people to blindly follow my list. The contrary; I'd be skeptical if someone did.

[Guest Breaker]

36 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Fair enough, SfS.

While I more agree with this - probably makes Breaker and SfS switch positions - just because Breaker suggests it doesn’t mean the others won’t check it first. The group I have are much more of... leaders, I guess. People will listen to them. And while Breaker has that potential, I can’t really make a judgement.

Plus, if it was Breaker’s idea, I’m not sure he’d fear Araris. It would be more random. I’ve been killed for less Elim reasoning, but I’m not trying to find all the Elims, just the one who decreed Araris’ death.

On mobile, will likely respond to Mat’s megapost later.

In all fairness, I mentioned I was told to fear Araris. It’s why I argued killing him might be seen as a way to implicate me. But I’d never have mentioned that if I intended on killing. I’m brazen, but that’s just ineffectual. Mindgaming strangers like that is likely beyond my abilities. 
 

I’ll take the compliment of potential, though I’m unsure I understand that haha

30 minutes ago, Somebody from Sel said:

It's not a complaint, they said "Let's see if we can figure out who decided to kill Araris." That therefore means people who wanted Araris killed for one reason or another aren't on the list.

All fifteen living people were on the version that included you. You were then promptly removed. I’m very lost how you’re concerned about being on a list of 15 people out of a possible 15.

 

I truly do not wish to be rude, but I’m afraid I’m missing something or you are. 

[Liranil she/her]

 

4 minutes ago, Breaker said:

 I will also sus anyone who susses me right now, for aforementioned reasons, so you’re on my list until further notice. 

I'm okay with being on your sus list, everyone's on mine (I overthink everything ). Although that's usually not a good strategy as "you're sus cuz you sussed me" looks really defensive. But I definitely get jumping all in for your first game to get the full experience! That's something I'm trying to do more this game.

4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Fair enough, SfS.

While I more agree with this - probably makes Breaker and SfS switch positions - just because Breaker suggests it doesn’t mean the others won’t check it first. The group I have are much more of... leaders, I guess. People will listen to them. And while Breaker has that potential, I can’t really make a judgement.

Plus, if it was Breaker’s idea, I’m not sure he’d fear Araris. It would be more random. I’ve been killed for less Elim reasoning, but I’m not trying to find all the Elims, just the one who decreed Araris’ death.

Fair point. Someone earlier did mention that this could be an elim team of more inexperienced players, and if it is, Breaker could be the most dominant. I'm leaving my vote for now, but tbh I might switch later to prevent a tie (unless it's between two people I'm sus of). 

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

Just now, Breaker said:

All fifteen living people were on the version that included you. You were then promptly removed. I’m very lost how you’re concerned about being on a list of 15 people out of a possible 15.

 

I truly do not wish to be rude, but I’m afraid I’m missing something or you are. 

I did originally miss that it was the entire player list, but I wasn't concerned, I was merely curious. I would expect an Elim to be concerned, that's partly why I'm distancing myself from it.

[Archer he/him]

My best read right now is Xino, but I'll vote any of the four I suspect: (warning, long, rambling post under this spoiler tag) Maybe I just like voting people I knew from the Alleyverse. Goodnight everybody.

Spoiler

The following is a chaotic mess of speculation. I’ve been writing half for me, half for you. So it’ll be hard to understand. I’ll try to clarify tomorrow. I’m basically accusing Snipexe, Straw, StrikerEZ, and Xino, so you guys deserve a properly articulated accusation. But it’s late so I’m putting this up now so the Australians have something from me to look at.

Breaker, before you read this, would you mind just making a list of your current gut reads? You’re following the thread in real time, so perhaps you’ve picked up something from the rhythm. I’d also like to compare reads with anyone else who wants to, but I recognize the danger of telling the elims is on to them. Maybe in your head make a mental sus list and compare yours to mine. That’s a good way to tell if we’re on the same wavelength.

Analysis is based on comments up until the start of this page when I began writing (Ash’s post), excluding posts made before the restart: (More has been said, including by Liranil I see, yay, but I'll get to those some other time)

Ookla the Shadowed – Hasn’t posted. Hasn’t been on since the game began. Therefore physically incapable of accessing the elim doc. It’s possible they’re a dud elim, which would lower the count to three (assuming four elims). I’ll be disappointed if that’s the case. We can’t afford to contribution crusade people because of a chance they’re elim. Actually, we could make a five-way tie of the least active people and hope to avoid a hammer. But that’s stupidly risky. So I’m forced to assume they’re VILAGER.

Araris – Elim killed Heklo villager. I assumed there’d only be one Heklo (and one of every role), but based on people’s reactions to that, I am now unsure. This is all they said about me (that wouldn’t scare me):

“I propose we depose Archer.”

(Prompted by my post) “I'm mostly popping in to say that I'm still comfortable with my vote. While I agree there can be value in not acting on a suspicion right away, I don't see any value in publicizing that you have a suspicion that you are unwilling to share.”

Ventyl – Defensive vote on me/popped on and went with the flow. Maybe collusion? Unlikely

Snipexe – laughed off my poke which is what I’d have done if I were either faction, posted saying chances were low of catching an elim. The post reads villagey to me. An elim wouldn’t want to be seen directing the conversation like that when he doesn’t need to. And I understand the sentiment, having thought the same thing myself before. It was a good response that ended with something I agree with: a random double kill is dumb. An elim would be more conscious of how that could be viewed and say it better. Snipexe got caught being WRONG. Has yet to talk this round, maybe lying low, maybe Christmas.  NEUTRAL

Quinn0928 – I like how much Quinn talked and they’re rules clarifications. An elim might have asked in the doc. Also aggressive, which is either leader attempt or village confidence they aren’t sus. Stayed in the convo even as votes were flying. Elim would try to let it flow naturally as long as it was unthreatening. VILLAGE

Straw – First to list their reads. Also voted Snipexe initially, came up with good reasons. Defended me. RIGHT. GET CAUGHT BEING RIGHT? NEUTRAL (An elim would want to get caught being right, not wrong. Has confidence to support people they know are villagers, that builds their reputation)

Matrim's Dice – First to discuss having suspicions. Also third vote (after Araris). Seems villagey. Invoked blue re: Christmas. Villagey. Stream of consciousness, admits being wrong in nice way. Villagey. Explciity suggests moving votes to two paths. Neutral. VILLAGE (ASTERISK)

Dannex – made a nothing intro post, a response, then a massive role analysis. Maybe realized they need to be more active because they were being talked about. Seems like overcompensation. Elimy. Continued to talk a bunch for a bit. Villagey. Read my post as off mid-cycle, so could be a push towards a mob, but that tracks with their playstyle. Also wrong. VILLAGE.

Ghanderflaffle – a few nothing posts. Too nothing to be elim, because they’d try to contribute enough to avoid looking like a lying low elim. Asked for vote count when there was a recent one, implying isn’t following thread as closely as an elim would. VILLAGE.

StrikerEZ - StrikerEZ and Ventyl are siblings. If elim!StrikerEZ contributed to villager!Ventyl’s first-round death on Christmas I would be shocked by his ruthlessness. But he switched to me. Either sibling love or, looked like timing of an elim. Maybe voted me to avenge brother. Villagey. Good cover. NEUTRAL

Ashbringer – Aren’t they GMing a game right now? Invoked blue, that’s villagey. Came back with a good response. Villagey. Absolutely right. Elimy. I like how the narrow down post reads. VILLAGE

xinoehp512 – Waited exactly as long as an elim would have before posting again. Posted a vote count. Elimy. Supported people. Elimy. Supported me. Elimy. But did so boldly. Villagey. GET CAUGHT BEING RIGHT? Another vote count. Two is less sus than one. NEUTRAL

Breaker: publicly accused Araris of being dangerous, so even though villagers wouldn’t put much stock into that later if Araris turned up dead, I’ll bet they’d remember, and want to avoid how that that looks and would have suggested another kill. That said, they also seem dead set on dying, so maybe they would allow it. I’m confused by that mindset because obviously their friends meant rookies don’t die in the first two rounds unless they explicitly ask to be killed. The unless was probably implied, but it still seems to be a weird way to play the game. Maybe they’re comfortable trolling because they’re an elim? Surely elim!Breaker would realize he’s over posting the norm and throttle it in VILLAGE

BrightEyes2 – dropped a nothing RP (good RP, no relevant substance), stayed quiet after that until end when they voted to avoid tie. Impossible to tell if they’re lurking elim or rookie trying to sit back and get a feel for things, so I’m sorced to bet they’re VILLAGE. (Who is BrightEyes1?) Following thread closely, maybe elimy.

Somebody from Sel – Low activity. VILLAGE

Liranil – Low activity, posts have been safe. Avoided tie! VILLAGE

 

Analyzing rules analysis isn’t super helpful, because elims can be perfectly honest when speaking hypothetically. I do however think that an elim would be excited to get their role, and probably post pretty quickly. This theory may be hindered by the reset messing people up.

Initial posting order: Ashbringer (joke), Araris (poke), Snipexe (intro), Quinn (intro), Archer (poke), Ghanderflaffle (response to my post), Straw (rules speculation), Quinn (earnest response to Straw), Matrim (responses and suspicion), Snipexe (response), Xino (intro)…

I think an elim would talk early, but not cast shade or vote (fearing a retribution vote that would blow their chances through bad luck). Snipexe fits that profile, as does Straw, and maybe a bold Ashbringer. Matrim, Breaker, and Quinn talked too much to be elim. Xino and Liranil were too tepid to be elim, but talked more later so opinion pending.  

I expect the elims brainstormed a kill list on the day the roles were assigned. Something along the lines of Liranil, Archer, Breaker, and BrightEyes are rookies, let’s not kill them right away. Half to be polite, half because they’re less likely to pick up on clues and more easily pocketed. Quinn, Araris, Matrim, Straw, StrikerEZ, Ventyl, Ashbringer, Xino, and Snipexe are more experienced players, let’s kill once of them first. (This is based on a foggy idea of who you all are, so the real list is probably better organized since four people contributed to it.) If an experienced player was in the team, they’d probably draft it. If it was all rookies, they’d probably come up with something similar, it would just take longer and maybe be less formalized. Anyway, Araris was probably on the initial shortlist to kill. The stuff happened. Breaker said, and I quote, “Also, and, I truly do not mean this as a threat, but I was warned you [Araris] were dangerous.” That might have put the idea in people’s head to target Araris. Then when they were deciding, possibly around the time I was being suspected, it presented a good opportunity to attempt a frame job. It’s not a great plan, but it’s a better strategy than just picking someone with no impact on the game. Or maybe they are killing us in alphabetical order. Who knows.

 

 

[Mat he/him]

9 hours ago, Archer said:

My best read right now is Xino, but I'll vote any of the four I suspect: (warning, long, rambling post under this spoiler tag) Maybe I just like voting people I knew from the Alleyverse. Goodnight everybody.

I had considered this... if more people like xino over Breaker I'll switch. I'm with you on most of your reads, actually.

9 hours ago, Archer said:

Matrim's Dice – First to discuss having suspicions. Also third vote (after Araris). Seems villagey. Invoked blue re: Christmas. Villagey. Stream of consciousness, admits being wrong in nice way. Villagey. Explciity suggests moving votes to two paths. Neutral. VILLAGE (ASTERISK)

What's the asterisk mean? I only ask because it's me  

9 hours ago, Archer said:

StrikerEZ - StrikerEZ and Ventyl are siblings. If elim!StrikerEZ contributed to villager!Ventyl’s first-round death on Christmas I would be shocked by his ruthlessness. But he switched to me. Either sibling love or, looked like timing of an elim. Maybe voted me to avenge brother. Villagey. Good cover. NEUTRAL

Well, his original vote on Ventyl was a poke, so that wasn't likely to stay from the beginning. He moved off because he read Ventyl as being normal Ventyl instead of elim Ventyl, which he was apparently right and we maybe should have listened to the one out of us who knows Ventyl best.

9 hours ago, Archer said:

Initial posting order: Ashbringer (joke), Araris (poke), Snipexe (intro), Quinn (intro), Archer (poke), Ghanderflaffle (response to my post), Straw (rules speculation), Quinn (earnest response to Straw), Matrim (responses and suspicion), Snipexe (response), Xino (intro)…

Rollover time is also at a time where lots of people are asleep, especially with the reset. I know that in the first version of C1 I posted right away, and on the second version posted when I woke up. It's just what I do on the main threads, regardless of alignment. So unless you know everyone's timezones, I don't think analyzing this is super useful.

9 hours ago, Archer said:

Matrim, Breaker, and Quinn talked too much to be elim.

Again, I talk this much regardless of alignment, it's how I play. I don't find it fit to sit back and watch very often, and when I can follow the thread I very much do. This is another thing I don't find makes very useful analysis unless you know everyone's playstyle pretty well. (The same goes for the following sentence of your post, but this I could use an example.)

9 hours ago, Archer said:

(This is based on a foggy idea of who you all are, so the real list is probably better organized since four people contributed to it.)

Where'd the solid 'four' come from? An assumption, or a freudian slip? I very much hope it's the first.

9 hours ago, Archer said:

Anyway, Araris was probably on the initial shortlist to kill. The stuff happened. Breaker said, and I quote, “Also, and, I truly do not mean this as a threat, but I was warned you [Araris] were dangerous.” That might have put the idea in people’s head to target Araris.

This suggests a newer, less-experienced elim team because as people have pointed out, older players won't want to fear kill. 

9 hours ago, Archer said:

Or maybe they are killing us in alphabetical order.

Then you're next  

Looking for @Breaker and maybe @Dannex's response to my explanation. I find it curious that Breaker had been devoutly following the thread until I posted that, then seemingly dropped off the face of the earth... not incriminating, but interesting all the same.

Edit: @Elandera, can I get a vote count?

Edited December 26, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Guest Breaker]

Apologies; what explanation did you want a response to, Matrim? I was writing one to Archer’s last night, since I was called out, but I went to bed, instead. What did you want me to respond to from you? 

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Breaker said:

Apologies; what explanation did you want a response to, Matrim? I was writing one to Archer’s last night, since I was called out, but I went to bed, instead. What did you want me to respond to from you? 

No problem, this:

Spoiler

 

 

[Elandera she/her]

46 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Edit: @Elandera, can I get a vote count?

Vote Count:

Archer (2) - Quinn0928, StrikerEZ
Breaker (2) - Matrim's Dice, Liranil
Matrim's Dice (2) - Dannex, Breaker
xinoehp512 (1) - Archer

End of the turn is in about 11 hours. Don't forget your actions!

[Archer he/him]

I’m back. To clarify my previous notes:

Our best bet for reducing the number of elims is by targeting the most vocal among them. Some of the low-activity people might be elims, but it’s difficult to read them. We can deal with them later because it will be obvious if they suddenly start trying to manipulate the vote. So I’ve attempted to narrow down the player list to who I think has a chance of being an elim. I suspect the four I deemed neutral (because they don’t seem fully elimy) aren’t the exact team, but I believe at least two probably are.

Of them, my strongest read in Xino. Then Straw, StrikerEZ, and Snipexe, in that order.

Elims want to keep a mid-range profile in terms of activity. It avoids saying enough to attract attention and gut read votes, but positions them well to influence the vote or add votes to the tally subtly. So it’s hard to build credibility by talking a lot. Instead, a common subconscious strategy is to get caught being right. They know who the villagers are, so they are often the most confident defenders of people whose alignments are about to be revealed due to mobbing. (Villagers are always uncertain and wary of pocketing, so they tend to be less bold in defending people.) In this way, Elims gain credibility for being right during the early rounds of the game and can then target people later more easily. Villagers also tend to be less wary of being read as an elim, so they will occasionally make mistakes and get caught being wrong, which in C1, an Elim would rarely do.

Straw sent my alarm bells ringing for the quality of their defense of me in C1. Snipexe seemed more Villagey, but they made a very large defense of themselves after that. Xino also supported people who I think are villagers. (Usually elims will support many people at once so they can slip in a support of a fellow elim without being obvious about it).

A lot of my reading is then based on timing. As Matrim has mentioned, the rollover trouble messes with that, but I looked at the first 12ish hours so I still think it’s valid. I’m very confident in my opinion that at least one Elim almost always makes one of the first five posts (list expanded this time due to weirdness). And then Xino timed their next post in an Elimy way. Xino also had some odd language about we being at a ‘dire tie’ when they put up vote counts, which is a good way to apply pressure to vote wildly without making an argument.

Looking at the posts I didn’t analyze last night, Liranil contributed some decent point when elim!Liranil could have lurked the whole time and probably won. I standby my VILLAGE guess. No real movement on anyone else.

Matrim, I have chosen to assume there’s four elims. My personal philosophy is that it’s better to consider too many people than to consider too few. As for the amount you talk being NAI in your opinion, this may be true. But at this point, I’m good for catching a specific type of elim, and people who underplay or are super bold will get by my radar. However, I still think I’m good for catching one or two people, so I’m sticking by my reasons for weeding down the list. In future games, hopefully I’ll be able to personalize my analysis.

I don’t get what they’d fear from Araris. Unless it’s me fearing him, or them fearing his ‘hmmmmms’, I don’t see why he’s more threatening than say Straw. So I think it was an opportunistic vote, which points to experienced players, although I think anyone could have done it.

I’d noticed the Breaker thing. I’m trying to figure out their lifestyle. They seem to play on mobile, based on their use of coding to colour text, and must have email alerts on. But surely they have to eat and sleep sometime. It’s also suspicious that they’re playing in a game Gears has an excuse to be quiet in. Has anyone ever seen them in the same room together….

Re: vote count: I'm not too worried about the tie right now, because I'm counting on some late votes to pad the margins. What I am worried about is mobbing the wrong person. Matrim especially seems like a poor mob target to me. I can see the case for Breaker, but still believe they're a villager. 

[Guest Breaker]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

No problem, this:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Pretty simply, I was warned I’d be targeted, since so many early reads were that I was loyal, and I’ve posted about counters to enemy strategy. It’s made me a decent target. More importantly, it’s been more or less an excuse on people I’ve already suspected. There are a few I wouldn’t sus if they targeted me, and would instead probably talk like a normal person as a response. I’m also just trying to bait night kills, because I’m objectively less useful due to role and inexperience, and, even now, I think I can survive day kills; I can, at any stop, stop provoking people for fun and profit. Win-win; I either survive or be useful. I’m not convinced mentioning it is bad for that strategy either, given how much everything I’ve said about whether I want to live can be read as truth or excuses. It’s arbitrary what story to believe, almost.

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Breaker said:

Pretty simply, I was warned I’d be targeted, since so many early reads were that I was loyal, and I’ve posted about counters to enemy strategy. It’s made me a decent target. More importantly, it’s been more or less an excuse on people I’ve already suspected. There are a few I wouldn’t sus if they targeted me, and would instead probably talk like a normal person as a response. I’m also just trying to bait night kills, because I’m objectively less useful due to role and inexperience, and, even now, I think I can survive day kills; I can, at any stop, stop provoking people for fun and profit. Win-win; I either survive or be useful. I’m not convinced mentioning it is bad for that strategy either, given how much everything I’ve said about whether I want to live can be read as truth or excuses. It’s arbitrary what story to believe, almost.

I'm not asking for that, I'm asking on a response to my defense. You and Dannex accused me, I told you why I did what I did. Now what?

(Thanks for the explanations, Archer)

[Guest Breaker]

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm not asking for that, I'm asking on a response to my defense. You and Dannex accused me, I told you why I did what I did. Now what?

(Thanks for the explanations, Archer)

Oh, it’s just what I’d expect an elim to do, take a leading theory and muddy the waters with worse information. I was actually especially suspicious due to the manner in which you responded, making a list in the same manner as Ash, thereby creating a replacement, but one based on hunches and minimal reasoning. Such a list might cause confusion and dilute the usefulness of what came before. Had you responded to each name line-by-line, offering basic thoughts, instead of offering a replacement document in structure, I’d have been less suspicious. I just don’t find your response to the criticism compelling, either; it seems a dodge, but hunch-based investigation benefits elims. I’ll keep the focus on you until I’m convinced you’re less of a threat than someone else. I do hope that comes to pass; I still like your name. 

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Breaker said:

Oh, it’s just what I’d expect an elim to do, take a leading theory and muddy the waters with worse information. I was actually especially suspicious due to the manner in which you responded, making a list in the same manner as Ash, thereby creating a replacement, but one based on hunches and minimal reasoning. Such a list might cause confusion and dilute the usefulness of what came before. Had you responded to each name line-by-line, offering basic thoughts, instead of offering a replacement document in structure, I’d have been less suspicious. I just don’t find your response to the criticism compelling, either; it seems a dodge, but hunch-based investigation benefits elims. I’ll keep the focus on you until I’m convinced you’re less of a threat than someone else. I do hope that comes to pass; I still like your name. 

Again, I'm asking for a response to my response. This is essentially the same thing you said before. I understood why you voted me, and I responded accordingly. If I were to respond to this it would be identical to my other post.

[Quintessential she/her]

13 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Okay, so here goes something. Let's see if we can figure out who decided to kill Araris.

• Ookla the Shadowed, Quinn0928, Straw, Somebody from Sel, Matrim's Dice, Dannex, Archer, Snipexe, Liranil, Ghanderflaffle, StrikerEZ, Ashbringer, xinoehp512, Breaker, BrightEyes2.

For one thing, I doubt that Breaker or BrightEyes would lead a night kill as new players, and Ookla the Shadowed hasn't been on in quite a long time.

• Quinn0928, Straw, Somebody from Sel, Matrim's Dice, Dannex, Archer, Snipexe, Liranil, Ghanderflaffle, StrikerEZ, Ashbringer, xinoehp512.

I also doubt Liranil would lead a night kill in their second game. However, Archer might, as he was an Elim alongside Araris in the QF... and reading the doc, I could see Archer being both a scary Elim and scared of Araris's potential, particularly after a vote on the first post.

I also doubt it was Straw, for opposite reasons. Straw's an old enough player to know the pain of fear-kills, so I doubt he would inflict that on Araris. It tends to be others who do that.

• Quinn0928, Somebody from Sel, Matrim's Dice, Dannex, Archer, Snipexe, Ghanderflaffle, StrikerEZ, Ashbringer, xinoehp512.

Ghanderflaffle and Somebody from Sel were mostly inactive last cycle. So they probably weren't super active in the doc.

• Quinn0928, Matrim's Dice, Dannex, Archer, Snipexe, StrikerEZ, Ashbringer, xinoehp512.

This is where I remove myself, because (surprise) I'm not an Elim.

• Quinn0928, Matrim's Dice, Dannex, Archer, Snipexe, StrikerEZ, xinoehp512.

 

I believe there's at least one Elim in this group. I could probably narrow it down further on different lines, and it's... not as narrow as I was hoping, but I don't see an obvious group to cull here. Or rather, which group. You have the Returned (Snipexe, StrikerEZ, and xinoehp512), the New Talkatives (Quinn0928, Matrim's Dice, Dannex, and me), and then Archer as a wild card. Could be any, although I'm leaning away from the Returned.

I'll cast a vote tomorrow, most likely.

Well I was gonna put this part before all the quotes but now that I've added them I can't get the formatting to work so it'll stay here I guess. I haven't been on because sleep and finishing Oathbringer (forgot how satisfying the ending is), but I'm here now! I'll... attempt to respond to everything but there's a lot, if not in posts then in content.

First of all, Ash is now officially my most village read. It's already been said, but this post is good, and it might end up being invaluable to us throughout the game, since unlike most of the other analysis done so far it doesn't rely on gut-read at all. Obviously there are some potential flaws, but I think Ash is right that there is at least one, and possibly more elims, in the final pool. Can't say I'm thrilled to be in the pool myself, but I get it--I do kind of fit the profile of someone who would suggest a kill on Araris (fairly new player, active from D1, have played games with him before, been suitably impressed by his skills, etc.).

Given that Archer, my current vote, is in the pool, I don't see any reason to move that vote for now, but that might change as I continue to write since I've only skimmed the thread and this post is me working out what's been said in detail.

12 hours ago, Liranil said:

I definitely think a lot of this reasoning is sound, although I'm not entirely sure that this was a fear kill. It could also be a more experienced player trying to make it look like a fear kill, or (especially if the elims are less experienced) a more random kill with not as much thought put behind it. I also disagree with your assessment of Breaker; based on their brazen play style so far, I would not be surprised at all if they proposed a kill first round if they were an elim. Additionally, Ghanderflaffle and Somebody could have been less active here because they were more active in the elim doc. So I'd probably have a larger list of suspects than you, but other than that, this mostly makes sense. 

For right now, I'm voting Breaker. I'm kind of sus of Archer too, but I was suspicious of Breaker last round, especially because they are playing like Archer did in their first game (as Archer said). Plus, after Straw asked Archer for clarification about whether they were sussing Breaker or not, Breaker's response was kinda accusatory. If it starts to look like a broad tie again, I may switch. We'll see.

Right, so Liranil does a good job of pointing out the flaws in Ash's reasoning, which means I don't have to! This post will be long enough as it is : P

I understand the vote on Breaker, but I honestly think we should focus on the people in the pool first, since Ash's reasoning was solid enough that there's bound to be an elim or two in it. Once we've looked into the people in the pool more closely (including Ash, and of course myself), then we can widen our focus to everyone in the game, by which point there will probably be fewer people in the game as it is, and that will make it harder for any elims that are currently outside the pool to hide.

12 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That's assuming it was a fear kill, which I'm not fully buying.

I'll continue with your list, because how you took that down makes a lot of sense. Likewise, I know I'm not an elim, so out my name goes! (Though I'm inserting yours back in )

• Quinn0928, Dannex, Archer, Snipexe, StrikerEZ, xinoehp512, Ashbringer

Gut village read on Quinn, same for Striker, maybe because of his hesitance on Ventyl. (iirc he said that he read Ventyl as just being normal, not elim)

• Dannex, Archer, Snipexe, xinoehp512, Ashbringer

I trust Archer.

• Dannex, Snipexe, xinoehp512, Ashbringer

There's a much more narrow list. I realize Ash's is much more useful, as he narrowed his down by fact (or some form of it) and I narrowed mine down by reads, sort of thinking out loud. I'll keep my vote where it is, though.

I know people have pointed out that this seems sus to them, but I think most of them are missing the intended purpose: this isn't Matrim telling us who we should look at as a pool of potential elims, this is Matrim telling us who he's looking at and why. That's actually good--he's sharing his own thought process and being transparent. Mild village read on Matrim still.

12 hours ago, Breaker said:

as for my comment about the fact that the list contained many of the votes-for suspects, that was intended as a downside, in that it was a convenient list that likely suffered from an elim hand. Hence why my next sentence was “at least it’s a plan.”

I... can't say I'm certain why most of the people having been voted for before would mean that there were probably elims involved in constructing the list. Many of the votes were joke or poke votes, and the ones that weren't were C1 votes, none of which were based on the Araris kill because it hadn't happened yet. By contrast, the list ignores reads, voting history, and previous playstyles and looks solely at each player's level of experience, their activity or lack thereof, and the fact that Araris was the C1 kill. 

I don't think the list is infallible by any means, that it catches all of the elims, or that we should exe everyone on it indiscriminately before looking outside the pool, but it's a good place to start.

12 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

While I more agree with this - probably makes Breaker and SfS switch positions - just because Breaker suggests it doesn’t mean the others won’t check it first. The group I have are much more of... leaders, I guess. People will listen to them. And while Breaker has that potential, I can’t really make a judgement.

Plus, if it was Breaker’s idea, I’m not sure he’d fear Araris. It would be more random. I’ve been killed for less Elim reasoning, but I’m not trying to find all the Elims, just the one who decreed Araris’ death.

Awww you think I'm a leader? That's so nice of you  

Well, in finding the one who decreed Araris' death you may very well have also caught any and all people who, as elims, would agree to a kill like that.

12 hours ago, Breaker said:

So, a list full of gut reactions, meaning no evidence. Just muddying the waters and whiting out a good resource. No accountability or explanation, really. I’ll vote for Matrim’s dice, my initial vote I held onto until the end of last cycle. 

12 hours ago, Dannex said:

This post makes me very suspicious, and not just because I’m one of the people he thinks is sus. This post seems very weird to me because it seems like Matrim is just continuing off of Ashbringer’s post (which I actually think makes a lot of sense), but if you look at his reasoning, it’s completely subjective. He presents the list as if it’s a logical continuation of Ash’s, as if that’s the new list that we should base further conclusions on, but it isn’t, at all. It removes people completely based on gut reads. 

Matrim’s Dice

Edit: Ninja’d by Breaker, who actually came to the same conclusion as me. Not jumping on a train, we came to the same conclusion independently.

Already said what I think of Matrim's list--for that reason I don't think this is at all something to exe him for.

12 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Like I already said, my list was purely me thinking out loud. People who look at it can agree, or not, but either way it 1. Helps me think and narrow down my suspects and 2. Lets people know what I think, which we already all agreed was the best situation.

Ah, and here's Matrim explaining what I said about his list. I didn't realize he had (like I said, I only skimmed the thread). 

12 hours ago, Breaker said:

In all fairness, I mentioned I was told to fear Araris. It’s why I argued killing him might be seen as a way to implicate me. But I’d never have mentioned that if I intended on killing. I’m brazen, but that’s just ineffectual. Mindgaming strangers like that is likely beyond my abilities. 

I mean, we don't know that one way or another tho. But yes, metagaming is risky since you have to predict what level of meta people will act on if you want to use it, and then act on the next level up. And like. That's hard. (every time metagaming comes up I think of that scene in the Princess Bride...)

12 hours ago, Liranil said:

Although that's usually not a good strategy as "you're sus cuz you sussed me" looks really defensive. But I definitely get jumping all in for your first game to get the full experience! That's something I'm trying to do more this game.

Fair point. Someone earlier did mention that this could be an elim team of more inexperienced players, and if it is, Breaker could be the most dominant. I'm leaving my vote for now, but tbh I might switch later to prevent a tie (unless it's between two people I'm sus of). 

Look, on the one had you're correct that saying someone is sus just because they think you're elim is sort of counterproductive, because villager reads and reasoning are wrong all the time. On the other hand, though, I don't think being defensive is actually a bad thing in general, since when someone accuses you of being elim and it looks like other people are starting to agree, you defend yourself whether you're village or elim. (unless you're Breaker during the first few cycles, apparently, in which case you attempt to act even more sus? XD) It's not really AI.

10 hours ago, Archer said:

My best read right now is Xino, but I'll vote any of the four I suspect: (warning, long, rambling post under this spoiler tag) Maybe I just like voting people I knew from the Alleyverse. Goodnight everybody.

Okay well time to tackle that monstrous wall of text I guess. I would respond to your vote on Xino but since your reasoning for it is (presumably) in the spoiler, I'll wait until I see that first.

10 hours ago, Archer said:

I’d also like to compare reads with anyone else who wants to, but I recognize the danger of telling the elims is on to them. Maybe in your head make a mental sus list and compare yours to mine.

I'll include my final reads at the end of this post  

10 hours ago, Archer said:

Ookla the Shadowed – Hasn’t posted. Hasn’t been on since the game began. Therefore physically incapable of accessing the elim doc. It’s possible they’re a dud elim, which would lower the count to three (assuming four elims). I’ll be disappointed if that’s the case. We can’t afford to contribution crusade people because of a chance they’re elim. Actually, we could make a five-way tie of the least active people and hope to avoid a hammer. But that’s stupidly risky. So I’m forced to assume they’re VILAGER.

Well it appears Experience will be replaced by a pinch hitter this round, so even if they are a dud elim they hopefully won't be starting next cycle. I'd read them as pure neutral at this point, rather than village.

10 hours ago, Archer said:

Araris – Elim killed Heklo villager. I assumed there’d only be one Heklo (and one of every role), but based on people’s reactions to that, I am now unsure.

I don't think it hurts anyone to say this: I currently have an open PM with someone, though I'm not Heklo and they claim that they aren't either. Since PM-opening happens after elim-kills, it can't have been Araris who opened this PM (that was the reason I asked about that earlier). Therefore there is in fact at least one other Heklo out there.

10 hours ago, Archer said:

Snipexe – laughed off my poke which is what I’d have done if I were either faction, posted saying chances were low of catching an elim. The post reads villagey to me. An elim wouldn’t want to be seen directing the conversation like that when he doesn’t need to. And I understand the sentiment, having thought the same thing myself before. It was a good response that ended with something I agree with: a random double kill is dumb. An elim would be more conscious of how that could be viewed and say it better. Snipexe got caught being WRONG. Has yet to talk this round, maybe lying low, maybe Christmas.  NEUTRAL

While it's true that an elim wouldn't generally want to be seen directing the conversation, that doesn't mean elims don't do it (I mean, you in QF49 for example?). I currently read Snipexe as very mild elim, but mostly due to Straw's analysis of their post, which Snipexe responded to quite well. Hmmm so come to think of it I guess they're more of neutral to me too.

The thing about directing the conversation actually relates to my response to part of your read on me as well--while I appreciate being read as village, I'd rather you considered your reasoning on everyone carefully, and that includes me. Specifically, in my case, talking a lot is basically NAI because I have talked a lot in previous games when I was village. If I stopped talking a lot, the people who've played with me before would note the drastic change in my playstyle, and they'd suspect that I was an elim trying to lie low. Therefore, since I've realized this, elim!me would make an effort to talk just as much as village!me (also I just like to talk a lot).

10 hours ago, Archer said:

xinoehp512 – Waited exactly as long as an elim would have before posting again. Posted a vote count. Elimy. Supported people. Elimy. Supported me. Elimy. But did so boldly. Villagey. GET CAUGHT BEING RIGHT? Another vote count. Two is less sus than one. NEUTRAL

I've skipped through the reads to Xino because this post is way too long as it is. If you read them neutral, why are you voting them?

10 hours ago, Archer said:

Analyzing rules analysis isn’t super helpful, because elims can be perfectly honest when speaking hypothetically. I do however think that an elim would be excited to get their role, and probably post pretty quickly. This theory may be hindered by the reset messing people up.

Yes, rules analysis is not very helpful as an indicator of alignment (anyone can think about the rules, and some people even write up their analyses before the game starts). However, rules analysis is useful to help everyone remember the rules and start thinking about the mechanics of the game, and it gets people talking in C1 when there's nothing much to really talk about. That gives us stuff to analyze later.

Okay y'know what? I'm going to stop writing here. Oh, but I promised Archer a reads list (I don't usually have strong elim reads this early in the game, hence the elim category being "mild"):

Village: Ash, Matrim, Breaker, Liranil (?), Brighteyes (?)
Neutral: Experience, SfS, Straw, Ghander, Striker, Dannex
Mild elim: Snipexe, Archer, xineo (for their insistence on there being three elims. Very very minor thing, honestly they barely even belong in this category).

Edit: I am so so sorry... I didn't mean for this to get so long!

Edited December 26, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Guest Breaker]

8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Again, I'm asking for a response to my response. This is essentially the same thing you said before. I understood why you voted me, and I responded accordingly. If I were to respond to this it would be identical to my other post.

I think I must be misunderstanding you, then. What specific line do you want me to respond to? I’m quite lost. 

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Breaker said:

I think I must be misunderstanding you, then. What specific line do you want me to respond to? I’m quite lost. 

The whole post :P. I just wanted some assurance my explanation was read, which so far only Quinn has acknowledged. I'll put the important part here so you don't have to go back a page. For context, you said this:

Quote

So, a list full of gut reactions, meaning no evidence. Just muddying the waters and whiting out a good resource. No accountability or explanation, really. I’ll vote for Matrim’s dice, my initial vote I held onto until the end of last cycle. sorry if I’m sounding mean; I’m still learning the proper etiquette and limits here; dramatic talk is fun. I truly apologize if I overstep.

And I replied with this:

Quote

It's not whittling a good resource, I didn't take away from Ash's list- and I even said his was better for the people. Like I already said, my list was purely me thinking out loud. People who look at it can agree, or not, but either way it 1. Helps me think and narrow down my suspects and 2. Lets people know what I think, which we already all agreed was the best situation.

 

[Guest Breaker]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The whole post :P. I just wanted some assurance my explanation was read, which so far only Quinn has acknowledged. I'll put the important part here so you don't have to go back a page. For context, you said this:

And I replied with this:

 

Honestly, I sort of consider my last post to be a response to that? I’m suspicious of your post because it seemed, to me, at least, to distract from, and, in structure, replace the other. I understand it was your thoughts, but the organization of them made me suspicious. Is that clear enough? 

41 minutes ago, Archer said:

I’d noticed the Breaker thing. I’m trying to figure out their lifestyle. They seem to play on mobile, based on their use of coding to colour text, and must have email alerts on. But surely they have to eat and sleep sometime. It’s also suspicious that they’re playing in a game Gears has an excuse to be quiet in. Has anyone ever seen them in the same room together….

Re: vote count: I'm not too worried about the tie right now, because I'm counting on some late votes to pad the margins. What I am worried about is mobbing the wrong person. Matrim especially seems like a poor mob target to me. I can see the case for Breaker, but still believe they're a villager. 

Oh, you could have just asked! Today, I have decided to be candid. So, let’s see. I’m a mobile player, predominantly, but I’ve made a good number of posts on my laptop. I don’t understand 17s posting procedure and mechanics yet, since I’m new in all practical senses, so I’m just now learning there are ways to post in color without that text. I copy-pasted the “colour” mistake from someone not involved in this game because I wanted to know how to do it, and I loathe mistakes. I live on the US East Coast, and I’m likely to be using a phone between 9:30 am and 1 am, and often will check an open tab on my phone or laptop for updates very frequently, since it’s 2020 Christmas break and I’ve nothing better to do besides watch a new tv show and play a new game, much of the time. I’m trying to be very active to learn quickly, because it helps me decide whether to continue to continue SE, and it helps me develop, in case I want to continue. I also don’t like other people having confident reads on me, so I’ve been changing my behavior daily and deliberately trying to do the opposite of expectation, for example, by posting a ton as a newbie. I’m also understandably bored, as a muggle villager, and cannot influence the game overly. So I’m exploring. Today, as aforementioned, that means uncharacteristic candidacy. Expires when I go to sleep. 
 

Gears is a friend of mine from a tabletop game, who asked me to play SE, because he enjoyed my character work in game, I believe, and because everyone likes to share with friends. I put the onus on him, by making him choose what game I’d join. I read Skyward to prepare for this game. I am partly trying to surprise Gears with my play, because his laugh is uncontrolled and amusing. 
 

I do not rely on email alerts, and I message during meals, at times. I sincerely hope I do not message while asleep. 

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Breaker said:

Honestly, I sort of consider my last post to be a response to that? I’m suspicious of your post because it seemed, to me, at least, to distract from, and, in structure, replace the other. I understand it was your thoughts, but the organization of them made me suspicious. Is that clear enough? 

No :P. It still feels like you're explaining your reasons for voting on me. That's not what I was wondering. I was wondering your response to my explanation, in which I said that what you read my post as wasn't its intended purpose. But we could go in circles here forever, so I'm just going to drop it.

[xinoehp512 he/him]

11 hours? Yikes, this turn is almost over...  Guess I'm done with breaking for Christmas this game.

(Quick metagame: @Archer, I always post vote counts if one hasn't been posted for a while, for my own benefit. Helps me keep my thoughts straight. Yes, I know it's sus; I'm trying to change that. Okay, metagame over.)

(Though, while we're on the topic of classic elim tells, making long lists of reads without any eliminator reads also belongs to that category. Caught getting right, indeed... )

And now, onto the player list.

@Ookla the Shadowed
Inactive. I suppose I could say because of email notifications, it's not impossible for them to have visited the elim doc.  I will admit, it doesn't seem likely. Neutral.

@Quinn0928
I had a strange feeling about Quinn last round, exacerbated by her waffling on the vote and only moving forwards when pushed. I don't think I like her jumping on the Archer train this cycle, either. Elim. (Ninja'd by massive post: I trust Quinn a little more now. Mild elim.)

@Straw
Straw is lying low, but I don't think its in an elimy way. I liked his reads last cycle; hopefully he'll post more. Slight village.

@Somebody from Sel
While they were inactive, and therefore unimplicated in the Araris kill, their response to the perceived accusation is out of proportion. Slight elim.

@Matrim's Dice
A highly active player with good discussion. His post this round doesn't seem sus to me. Slight village.
@Dannex
Seems very focused on making attacks. Reminds me of Araris. Neutral.

@Archer
I didn't read him elim last round, and this round hasn't really made me read him elim at all. Slight village.

Ugh, not even halfway through the list and I'm already reminded why I stopped playing SE. :P. I'm taking a break, my brain's too tired to handle any more thread scanning.

 

[Quintessential she/her]

7 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

I had a strange feeling about Quinn last round, exacerbated by her waffling on the vote and only moving forwards when pushed. I don't think I like her jumping on the Archer train this cycle, either. Elim. (Ninja'd by massive post: I trust Quinn a little more now. Mild elim.)

*wince* that is fair. I've explained why I left my vote to when I did, but in retrospect I should have voted earlier. Still trying to find the middle ground there : P

As for jumping on the Archer train, I'd like to point out that I voted Archer for different reasons than anyone else, reasons I explained in my vote post. I'm wavering a bit on that vote after the long analysis post that Archer made, but at the same time long posts does not equal village.

Aside from that, I'm still somewhat confused by their reasons for voting you given that they read you neutral, and I still don't understand why a villager would try to save someone else on C1, especially since we didn't even have PMs to build up stronger reads and some amount of trust. Also, Archer is on the list of people who seemed likely to suggest an Araris kill, and they keep making assumptions about what the elims will act like that (coincidentally, or not) put the elim play they've exhibited before, and to some extent the way they're playing now, into the village category. So, with all of that being said, I think I'll leave my vote where it is unless it seems there will be a tie.