Elandera she/her Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, Gears said: Elandera voted Quinn for trusting Illwei. Considering that the lynch was tied at the time, this could have been a way to save elim teammates that were part of a tie. Illwei was in the lead at the time I placed the vote on Quinn. She then removed her own vote of Illwei, putting herself in the lead and removing the tie I created.
Gears Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ooklil' the Wei said: I don't quite follow your reasoning here, can you explain it a bit more? You find elandera suspicious for...what exactly? I didn't understand the "Quinn trusted Illwei" point, so rejecting that point, there must have been an ulterior motive. Before Elandera's vote, there was a tie. They might have acted to save teammates. 1 minute ago, Elandera said: Illwei was in the lead at the time I placed the vote on Quinn. She then removed her own vote of Illwei, putting herself in the lead and removing the tie I created. Oh. Well, back to square one. Elandera. I'll go reread a few things now.
Condensation she/her Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 45 minutes ago, Vapor said: Sorry, I wasn't allowed to get on on Sunday, and Connie shouldn't have. Vanessa strolled up to Fritz casually. "I couldn't quite make it until now. I hope you don't mind." Oh, hey. Don't I know you from somewhere? I was on because I might have gotten lynched, and it's a good thing! I didn't get lynched, after all.
Vapor she/her Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said: Oh, hey. Don't I know you from somewhere? I was on because I might have gotten lynched, and it's a good thing! I didn't get lynched, after all. "Yes, you do, Fritz. I'm Vanessa."
Experience he/him Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said: Oh, hey. Don't I know you from somewhere? I was on because I might have gotten lynched, and it's a good thing! I didn't get lynched, after all. Could you maybe switch your RP to italics, cause It's kinda confusing right now.
Condensation she/her Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, Ookla the Shadowed said: Could you maybe switch your RP to italics, cause It's kinda confusing right now. Aw, c'mon! I'm enjoying this! I suppose, although Fritz won't like it.
Jo and the Bush all/any Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 I'm voting for the Paradoxical Archer @Ookla the Paradoxical It's both a gut feeling and some inconsistencies in their position. In this post, they advocate for a wide spread of votes, to force lots of people to defend themselves. While that is a good strategy, it does also ensure that there will be plenty of ways for the elims to dodge the lynch. Especially as there is no way to defend one's self this early on. Later on they mention that everyone having one vote is ideal, as pure randomness is the fairest way to do a lynch. This is the post that really made my gut hurt though: (It won't let me quote for some reason. IDK) It feels like he's covering for Illwei, by imagining a plan she could have done if she and quinn were both elims, and declaring her innocent because she didn't follow the plan. It's a weird way to find someone innocent.There's more about their posts this cycle that are setting my gut off, but I haven't figured out why yet. I'll take another look later, if I'm still awake.
Illwei Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 18 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said: It feels like he's covering for Illwei Maybe there's a part two like Elandera said in her reasoning, but I don't like how both you and Elandera are connecting me to Archer. I don't understand why he thought that (thought I said that earlier) but this is basically guaranteeing a ML on me if Archer flips Elim. Something I'm not sure about, but he's not my strongest village read. Paranoia is worrying me that there's an Archer/Elandera/Joe team, but that's unlikely, and they'd still need three more MLs after me before they can win if none of the researched get killed. Elim reads: Elandera, Joe, Vapor. This post from Joe feels like a try to get Liranil to swap.
Coffeecat she/her Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 ok ok i am so sorry, but we have been moving our house and i simply did not have internet for a while, and then no access to a computer i did not see this coming, if i did i would have not signed up like i didnt for other games it is late and i need sleep
|TJ| he/him Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 (edited) 12 hours ago, Ookla the Paradoxical said: Araris, Elandera, Joe, TJ Shade, Liranil all acted pretty uncontroversial, which is the most suspicious to me because that’s how I’d play it if I were elim. I’d guess that two of them are elims and the other is one of the people who got didn’t vote. Out of the five, Liranil seems the most trustworthy and TJ Shade strikes me as the most likely elim contender. First off, rollover period is early morning for me, so I cannot be involved in any late voting shenanigans. Second, when I voted, no one had more than one vote on them, making me the first person to vote on someone who already had a vote on. So if you're hinting at me hiding in side-trains, I wasn't. Third, and most important thing that makes me suspect you - First, you voted for Gears, a player easy to vote on, and easy to defend against in the event they get lynched and flip village, then as soon as someone votes on Gears making them tied lead, you shift to Experience. Then as soon as Araris votes on Experience making him tied lead, you shift again to SfS. Seems like you're very worried of how you'll look if you're involved in voting out the person who'll possibly get lynched and flip village. Archer Also suspicious of Connie. Not voting in C1 is fine, but she's been speaking quite a bit, but not much game related discussion at all. No reads, no opinion on players, that I can remember. Slightly suspicious of Liranil as they're voting for Elandera again, as I've observed that voting for same players in successive cycles is new-player!elim tell. Feeling slightly better about Illwei, but I don't think you've remarked on Quinn's retraction on you, which I found unusual. I would have expected some sort of reaction. I think Araris/Exp is v/v. I've not seen on many cases of elims retaliatory voting. And I don't support Elandera lynch because I think the reasons are weak. One is making a connecting between people who cleared Illwei and Illwei as elims, and the other is for voting for Illwei, which isn't much. Edited December 8, 2020 by TJ Shade
Liranil she/her Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, TJ Shade said: Slightly suspicious of Liranil as they're voting for Elandera again, as I've observed that voting for same players in successive cycles is new-player!elim tell. I could definitely see that, although that was more of a placeholder vote so I wouldn't get sussed for talking and not voting again. 5 hours ago, Ooklil' the Wei said: This post from Joe feels like a try to get Liranil to swap. I can definitely see that happening too, and I'm a little suspicious about Joe. I'm also suspicious that you might be saying that to keep me from switching to Archer... The main reason I'm suspicious of Archer is because I'm generally suspicious of anyone who takes over the conversation a lot, and they introduced the idea that people who spoke and didn't vote were suspicious, which seems like a good way to force unsure villagers to vote randomly. I also agree with TJ that Archer's sudden switch at the end of last round was a little weird. Idk. I'm sticking with my vote for now but basically I'm sus of everyone and my brain hurts.
Condensation she/her Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 2 hours ago, TJ Shade said: Also suspicious of Connie. Not voting in C1 is fine, but she's been speaking quite a bit, but not much game related discussion at all. No reads, no opinion on players, that I can remember. I have no reads! If I made a reads chart, it would go from null to null village. Honestly, I'm bad at reads. And I think this might have to be my last QF until I'm better at them, since they're apparently so important.
|TJ| he/him Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said: I have no reads! If I made a reads chart, it would go from null to null village. Honestly, I'm bad at reads. And I think this might have to be my last QF until I'm better at them, since they're apparently so important. I wouldn't recommend to stop playing. You'll only get better by playing more. And reads are not so important. They're definitely helpful but a strong accusation on one suspect is better than giving reads and telling "Null" on everyone. It's not that you're not giving reads. I can't remember any sort of thoughts you shared on the game. Edited December 8, 2020 by TJ Shade
Archer he/him Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 So far, Araris voted for Experience Elandera voted for Illwei then removed it Archer voted for Windrunner Supreme Somebody voted for Vapor Illwei voted for Somebody Elandera voted for Somebody Illwei voted for Elandera (forgot to remove previous vote) Experience voted for Araris Liranil voted for Elandera Gears voted for Elandera then removed it Joe voted for Archer TJ voted for Archer Vote tallies: Experience 1, Windrunner 1, Vapor 1, Somebody 1, Araris 1, Elandera 2, Archer 2 It appears that my poke vote on Windrunner has accomplished nothing. The filter is going to replace them at the end of this round and we’ll have to begin our read of them all over again. That’s unfortunate, but at this point my vote would be better suited elsewhere. I’ll admit I’m tempted to vote Elandera to save myself from elimination, but I’d like to be able to justify that and I’m not sure I can. As I said before, they voted out a villager in the first round, which is too bold for a Reckoner. I’m ignoring discussion of people’s previous behaviours because I can’t personally verify it. Three of you are lying elims, so there’s bound to be some misinformation out there. 15 hours ago, Ooklil' the Wei said: My only thing is we'll never know if Archer was trying to intentionally mislead us with bad maths or if he was just wrong and that is getting to me. Oooooof There is no good way to respond to that. Well played. 15 hours ago, Ookla the Paradoxical said: Out of the five, Liranil seems the most trustworthy and TJ Shade strikes me as the most likely elim contender. Speaking of throwing shade, TJ, I find it suspicious that I say this ^, then you retaliate vote and say this: 3 hours ago, TJ Shade said: First off, rollover period is early morning for me, so I cannot be involved in any late voting shenanigans. Second, when I voted, no one had more than one vote on them, making me the first person to vote on someone who already had a vote on. So if you're hinting at me hiding in side-trains, I wasn't. Third, and most important thing that makes me suspect you - First, you voted for Gears, a player easy to vote on, and easy to defend against in the event they get lynched and flip village, then as soon as someone votes on Gears making them tied lead, you shift to Experience. Then as soon as Araris votes on Experience making him tied lead, you shift again to SfS. Seems like you're very worried of how you'll look if you're involved in voting out the person who'll possibly get lynched and flip village. Archer I think Araris/Exp is v/v. I've not seen on many cases of elims retaliatory voting. And I don't support Elandera lynch because I think the reasons are weak. One is making a connecting between people who cleared Illwei and Illwei as elims, and the other is for voting for Illwei, which isn't much. It's an excuse by proxy for your own retaliatory vote and it makes it hard for me to vote for you without it looking like I'm just trying to appear like a villager. As for your second point, you did cast a second vote on someone, but the first vote was ultimately removed. It could have been an eliminator plan the whole time. They're planning something, they have to be. That could have been the play last time. 14 hours ago, Gears said: I was writing a post at the end of last cycle, but I was pulled away by "family obligations" and "music lessons", so I didn't finish it. If it weren't for all the ninjas, maybe I could have completed it, but alas, 'twas not meant to be. I have put it in the spoiler and recoloured the vote orange to lessen confusion. Reveal hidden contents I have been doing this for many, many games [since MR44, I believe]. I am trying to escape this strategy, but I acknowledge that changing strategies invokes suspicion, so I am easing the general populace into it. You are welcome to vote me if you want. Mathematics based on both elims and murder pool: C1: 3/15, C2: 4/14, C3: 5/13, C4: 6/12, etc. Question: In QFs, do people always vote for no reason whatsoever with no discussion at all? I don't remember this last time. [Also, Archer, Araris, ninjas are not appreciated] An analysis of the cycle thus far Illwei: Votes TJ Archer: RP Illwei: Banter Quinn: Reads Illwei village for chaos Araris: Votes Joe Liranil: RP Araris: RP discussion Illwei: Votes Quinn for hedginess Quinn: Votes Illwei for not recognising doubt. Condensation: Exist Quinn: Okay Condensation: Okay Gears: Analysis, RP Quinn: Lynch murder pool, delay LyLo Illwei: Unlikely Archer: Votes Gears for elim claim. Bad maths. Illwei: QF = casual Books: Bad math is bad. Great and Mighty Game Master: Stay out of our game! Elandera: Votes Araris Condensation: ??? Archer: Yes, bad math. Illwei: Murder is not concurrent Liranil: LyLo? Araris: LyLo. Archer: LyLo -> Dictionary Liranil: LyLo! Joe: Votes Liranil for posting without voting TJ Shade: Votes Illwei for differing game strategies. Joe: Fixed list. Quinn: Illwei is weird. Illwei: Quinn thinking village!Illwei is strange. Quinn: Minds change. TJ Shade: ??? Liranil: Votes Elandera for voting after people mentioned attention on those who don't. Illwei: We know nothing. Elandera: Quinn pocket Illwei? Quinn: Retracts Illwei to not prolong the inevitable. Experience: Votes elim since elim claims hurt the village Quinn: How? Elandera: Survival. Quinn. Okay? Archer: Votes Experience because they suspect a potential scheme. Araris: Votes Experience. Gears =/= outed elim. Gears = Troll. Archer: Switches to Somebody. Experience: Vo Archer just switched votes after Araris voted along with them. Why? I think that Archer has explained their reasoning to a satisfactory degree, so I'll abandon that thread for now. I don't remember Somebody's syntax well enough to note a shift, but I'd assume that an elim would avoid making an active change. Elandera voted Quinn for trusting Illwei. Considering that the lynch was tied at the time, this could have been a way to save elim teammates that were part of a tie. This is a stretch at best, but it seems that I will be attacked if I do not vote, which annoys me. I'll just note that so far Gears has yet to vote for anyone. This one was promptly dropped. Analysis without a lasting vote is suspicious. 1 hour ago, Liranil said: I could definitely see that, although that was more of a placeholder vote so I wouldn't get sussed for talking and not voting again. I can definitely see that happening too, and I'm a little suspicious about Joe. I'm also suspicious that you might be saying that to keep me from switching to Archer... The main reason I'm suspicious of Archer is because I'm generally suspicious of anyone who takes over the conversation a lot, and they introduced the idea that people who spoke and didn't vote were suspicious, which seems like a good way to force unsure villagers to vote randomly. I also agree with TJ that Archer's sudden switch at the end of last round was a little weird. Idk. I'm sticking with my vote for now but basically I'm sus of everyone and my brain hurts. For the record, I do not encourage random voting beyond the first round. Now that we have locked in votes to look at, we can base our votes on those. Unfortunately, I'm currently fighting some bad optics. The question becomes, do you believe it is strange for a villager to not want to kill someone and do you believe it is okay for villagers to vote in self-defense? I suspect those questions will define the next round. 7 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said: I'm voting for the Paradoxical Archer @Ookla the Paradoxical It's both a gut feeling and some inconsistencies in their position. In this post, they advocate for a wide spread of votes, to force lots of people to defend themselves. While that is a good strategy, it does also ensure that there will be plenty of ways for the elims to dodge the lynch. Especially as there is no way to defend one's self this early on. Later on they mention that everyone having one vote is ideal, as pure randomness is the fairest way to do a lynch. This is the post that really made my gut hurt though: [link] It feels like he's covering for Illwei, by imagining a plan she could have done if she and quinn were both elims, and declaring her innocent because she didn't follow the plan. It's a weird way to find someone innocent.There's more about their posts this cycle that are setting my gut off, but I haven't figured out why yet. I'll take another look later, if I'm still awake. I'm ignoring gut reads and AIs this game. There's no good way for me to do them because I don't know y'all or the game well enough yet and three of you are likely spreading misinformation. I absolutely believe that votes are the best way to determine roles. But sure, maybe I'm tunneling on the plan. Let's imagine the different scenarios. If Illwei was innocent and Elan was a Reckoner, Elan cast the deciding vote for an innocent person. That puts the heat on them, which is why they’re on the chopping block. That doesn’t sit right with me. That said, maybe they were counting on the Gears lynch happening instead and they wouldn’t be questioned. If Illwei is a Reckoner, and Elan is an Epic, they got lucky. If they’re both in on it, maybe it was planned from the beginning. Rereading Elan's defense, they said "Illwei was in the lead at the time I placed the vote on Quinn. She then removed her own vote of Illwei, putting herself in the lead and removing the tie I created." Perhaps they never intended to cause a lynch they were connected to and Quinn just messed them up. The more I look at this, the more it might have been a misplay. But I'm still not entirely convinced. In conclusion, I don't really have a lead.
|TJ| he/him Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 16 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradoxical said: Speaking of throwing shade, TJ, I find it suspicious that I say this ^, then you retaliate vote and say this: My main point against you is the third one. The vote hopping specifically when the player is leading to be voted out. We vote because we want to kill the person we are voting for, while your voting seemed like you were avoiding to kill the person you were voting for. 25 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradoxical said: As for your second point, you did cast a second vote on someone, but the first vote was ultimately removed. It could have been an eliminator plan the whole time. The first vote removed was by Quinn. Quinn flipped village.
Condensation she/her Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 @Ookla the Paradoxical, @Elandera; explain to me why I shouldn't vote for you. I don't know, I'm just throwing this out there because apparently I need to vote.
Archer he/him Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 (edited) 41 minutes ago, TJ Shade said: My main point against you is the third one. The vote hopping specifically when the player is leading to be voted out. We vote because we want to kill the person we are voting for, while your voting seemed like you were avoiding to kill the person you were voting for. The first vote removed was by Quinn. Quinn flipped village. That's a later round way of using votes. Early on, they are largely used for poking and establishing a record. I understand some people have gut reads on Day One and may use their votes to actually try to kill someone, but that strategy doesn't make sense to me. And ah, that's correct. My mistake. I get Elandera and Quinn confused. 39 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said: @Ookla the Paradoxical, @Elandera; explain to me why I shouldn't vote for you. I don't know, I'm just throwing this out there because apparently I need to vote. I'm a villager and voting me means you have one less teammate, if you're a villager. *pew pew finger guns* This dichotomy diverts suspicion from you Condensation, and for that reason I'm suspicious of it. Or it could be we are both elim and you're trying to avoid suspicion for saving me by doing it like this. But if people remain unconvinced by my answers so far, here's the brief version. It appears that what makes Elandera suspicious is they voted for Quinn, then in Day Two, quickly voted for Illwei, who Quinn trusted. What makes me suspicious is best articulated by TJ: "Third, and most important thing that makes me suspect you - First, you voted for Gears, a player easy to vote on, and easy to defend against in the event they get lynched and flip village, then as soon as someone votes on Gears making them tied lead, you shift to Experience. Then as soon as Araris votes on Experience making him tied lead, you shift again to SfS. Seems like you're very worried of how you'll look if you're involved in voting out the person who'll possibly get lynched and flip village." As he said, I had a good excuse for voting Gears (he claimed elim). I switched and caused a village lynch anyway. If I am elim, why would I care which villager died if I am going to be blamed for both? I was the first vote on them, it was unsuspicious. Experience came late to the party and set Gears up to possibly die. I was okay if a truly random death happened because there was surely some one vote elims in the mix and we might get lucky, but trying to push a particular death early in the game didn't seem right to me, especially since Experience didn't really engage with any arguments and analysis but the most recent ones at the time. Edited December 8, 2020 by Ookla the Paradoxical separated paragraphs
Condensation she/her Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 Sounds reasonable. Did I also catch some "this is why you should vote for Elandera" in there?
Archer he/him Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, Ookla the Grammatical said: Sounds reasonable. Did I also catch some "this is why you should vote for Elandera" in there? Very little. I remain unconvinced it's them. My thought on that are here: "I'm ignoring gut reads and AIs this game. There's no good way for me to do them because I don't know y'all or the game well enough yet and three of you are likely spreading misinformation. I absolutely believe that votes are the best way to determine roles. But sure, maybe I'm tunneling on the plan. Let's imagine the different scenarios. If Illwei was innocent and Elan was a Reckoner, Elan cast the deciding vote for an innocent person. That puts the heat on them, which is why they’re on the chopping block. That doesn’t sit right with me. That said, maybe they were counting on the Gears lynch happening instead and they wouldn’t be questioned. If Illwei is a Reckoner, and Elan is an Epic, they got lucky. If they’re both in on it, maybe it was planned from the beginning. Rereading Elan's defense, they said "Illwei was in the lead at the time I placed the vote on Quinn. She then removed her own vote of Illwei, putting herself in the lead and removing the tie I created." Perhaps they never intended to cause a lynch they were connected to and Quinn just messed them up. The more I look at this, the more it might have been a misplay. But I'm still not entirely convinced." If you want to vote someone for last minute vote switching (besides me), I actually recommend Experience.
Guest Somebody from Scadrial Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 38 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said: @Ookla the Paradoxical, @Elandera; explain to me why I shouldn't vote for you. I don't know, I'm just throwing this out there because apparently I need to vote. You don't need to vote next round of you vote for Archer Points against Archer: voted off a person every time they got in the lead, elimmy. Encouraged and enforced voting without much reasoning. Overall pretty elimmy. Oh and I should have clarified that my vote on Vapor was a poke vote.
Condensation she/her Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 So it sounds like if Archer gets lynched and they're village, we should look closer at Somebody, and if Experience gets lynched and they're village, then we should look closer at Archer. I know, I know. Sounds like a no duh.
Elandera she/her Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said: So it sounds like if Archer gets lynched and they're village, we should look closer at Somebody, and if Experience gets lynched and they're village, then we should look closer at Archer. I know, I know. Sounds like a no duh. Careful with assumptions like this. Just because someone advocates a lynch on a villager doesn't mean they're automatically elim. Villagers play the game blind and I've seen many, many lynches on a villager with only villagers voting. And overall, it can be dangerous for an elim to solidify a lynch because of the attention it brings, like in the case of SfS voting on Archer. 1 hour ago, Ookla the Grammatical said: @Ookla the Paradoxical, @Elandera; explain to me why I shouldn't vote for you. Because I'm village. And the votes on me consist of weird reasoning. Illwei says my playstyle is different, but why would I change my playstyle as an elim? All it does is draw attention. Liranil's vote is because I voted on Illwei early, which I dispute because QFs are short and votes matter. Also, that was removed once I realized the main argument for that vote was based on faulty understanding. Gears' (now removed) was based on a misunderstanding of the sequence of events.
Condensation she/her Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, Elandera said: Careful with assumptions like this. Just because someone advocates a lynch on a villager doesn't mean they're automatically elim. Villagers play the game blind and I've seen many, many lynches on a villager with only villagers voting. And overall, it can be dangerous for an elim to solidify a lynch because of the attention it brings, like in the case of SfS voting on Archer. I never said that they were elim, I just said that we should look closer.
Liranil she/her Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, Elandera said: Liranil's vote is because I voted on Illwei early, which I dispute because QFs are short and votes matter. Also, that was removed once I realized the main argument for that vote was based on faulty understanding. I mean it was more because you jumped in with a vote after Archer said to watch anyone who spoke and didn't vote, but this round it was more of a placeholder vote. It's really a shot in the dark for me at this point, since I don't know anyone's play styles well. 29 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said: So it sounds like if Archer gets lynched and they're village, we should look closer at Somebody, and if Experience gets lynched and they're village, then we should look closer at Archer. I know, I know. Sounds like a no duh. It also seems to me that Archer is trying to deflect from Elandera, so if Archer is elim, that makes me more suspicious of Elandera.
Elandera she/her Posted December 8, 2020 Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, Liranil said: I mean it was more because you jumped in with a vote after Archer said to watch anyone who spoke and didn't vote Ah. Forgot you were the one who voted on me last round, too. As for that, it was my first opportunity to post, and as I'm sure you've noticed from this round, I'm not shy about throwing a vote down early. The timing was rather unfortunate (thanks, Archer... >.> )
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