Archer he/him Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 Well. That happened. I knew the extra kills were coming, but I’d kind of forgotten about them until now. They aren’t really surprising choices, one inactive and two people who weren’t under much suspicion. I’m curious which one they picked this round, because that’s the one that would be the most strategically made choice. TJ was the only one who voted this round, so assuming it was them, it may have been to protect Araris from his suspicion. That said, it’s an obvious play, so I’m also inclined to think it may have been a set-up. Their timing is odd to me in it was meant to be defensive. A quick explanation of my actions last round. I was hoping Araris would join me on an Experience wagon, but they didn’t bite. I later revaluated and decided they’re unsuspicious anyway. Elandera fell off my kill list after my revaluation, and hitting Illwei seemed like a good way to get myself on the chopping block, because they might retaliatorily vote. Plus, they trusted me, so I kind of wanted to keep them alive. Vapor’s vote last round kept me alive, but their vote in Day Three felt off and they never gave good reasons for it. The bar for an explanation was low, but they never cleared it. So I avoided adding to the Illwei wagon, and started my own on them. The nice thing is, if they kill off more inactives, eventually we’ll just be left with people with voting records. Or it will be really obvious who the lying low Reckoners are. I’m going to keep my vote on Vapor until they explain their thought process a little better. I’m also conscious that we’re nearing lylo, so make sure to vote and all that. Elandera, Gears, Liranil! You’ve lynched a villager! Care to explain?
Liranil she/her Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 (edited) Well dang. That did not go well. So they went for people who weren't suspicious, which seems like a good strategy. I'm just going to write out my thoughts so I can focus on the final I need to work on tonight haha. Archer and Elandera both have a lot of sus on them and have been talking a lot, so my thought is that they're either Elims (not necessarily both) or the elims are keeping them alive to distract us from them. I'm kind of starting to lean the second way but I'm not sure. Vapor hasn't talked a lot but has been sussed a few times, so possibly the same goes for her. I don't think Danex being a replacement makes them clear, since the dropout could be due to life getting in the way (or maybe the person they replaced doesn't like being elim). I really don't know what to think anymore... Edit: Ninja'd Edited December 10, 2020 by Liranil
Archer he/him Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 I am concerned that we're going to roll into Cycle Five with no strong lynch candidate. At that point, they'll have three votes, which might be enough to kill if even one person doesn't vote. So let's talk about who we can lynch now and next time that we all feel good about. I do not feel confident lynching Danex. They have a record of one vote, and little discussion to analyze. Voting them would be a longshot. If we're going to vote them, I suggest that it be part of a sustained strategy over the next two rounds. Based on the guess that one or more of the Reckoners is lying low, we vote for both Connie and them back to back. If we just pick one and miss, I anticipate the elims convincing us to vote for someone else next round. I am concerned that Vapor is being set up for a bus, and is intentionally allowing themselves to be suspected. If so, Araris is in on it, but since Illwei flipped villager, it might not have been that. Their lack of a rationale for their actions still strikes me as strange, which is why they are my best suspect right now. Illwei thought Elandera was suspicious, so that possibility must be considered. Lynching them would also be a good way to test Liranil's theory that they and I are co-elims. (Hey, Elandera, what're your pronouns?) I feel like Liranil is playing their confusion up to avoid elimination, but that's not a great basis to vote them. Gears straight up killed Illwei this round, so at least that's a reason. Araris has been late-ish stage vote flipping, so that's a little concerning. Experience too.
Liranil she/her Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, Ookla the Paradoxical said: Elandera, Gears, Liranil! You’ve lynched a villager! Care to explain? Last round for me was between Elandera and Illwei, and I chose to go with Illwei because there seemed to be a lot of little things adding up against them. Plus, I'd already voted Elandera the two rounds before that and I wasn't sure enough to vote on them a third time. Not a great reason, I guess, but it was all I could figure out. I was also suspicious of you, as I mentioned towards the end of last round because of how much you were defending Elandera, especially if they end up being an elim. My main worry is that a lot of our assumptions have been based on the idea that the elims are laying low, but it's always possible that the elims are the ones who try to point us in specific directions. Edited December 10, 2020 by Liranil
Gears Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 Last cycle's posts: Illwei: Votes Elandera Danex: Exists Experience: Votes Archer because later Somebody votes are sus and Archer voted out of self-pres when they were going to live. [I mean, not realising you'll survive is a possibility.] Vapor: They confess to bandwagoning. Illwei: You think you are sus? Vapor: Would look sus to outsiders. Archer: Votes Experience for shallow reasoning. Experience: Sus of Archer for gut, defensiveness, deflecting attention. Condensation: No way of knowing if elims are inactive Illwei: Questions Game Master: Answers Illwei: Alas, foolishness abounds. Vapor: Thought Somebody vote was sus. Why is Archer voting Experience? Danex: Votes Condensation for self-referential third person usage Condensation: Yes. Illwei: ? Condensation: Yes Archer: Explains vote for Experience. Gears: Last cycle's posts. Votes Illwei for lynch on Somebody, pocketing Archer. [I still don't understand why they wanted Archer alive. Why would a villager have that flavor of certainty? I stand by my reasons, even though they lead me to an erroneous conclusion.] Illwei: Shall return Condensation: Gets games mixed up. Danex: ? Illwei: Analysis [which was quite good, actually] Gears: Distancing? [They did alter their opinion. I stand by this as well. I suppose that I should have expected this from the player that tends to be erratic.] Elandera: Responses. [They use skimming the thread as a justification. This could be an excuse in post to excuse a failed attempt to muster suspicion against people, or it could be a genuine explanation.] TJ Shade: Trusts Experience and Elandera. Votes Araris for shifting from Experience to Somebody and emphasizing an Experience lynch. Liranil: Suspicious of Illwei, Elandera, Archer. Votes Illwei because Quinn may have been right first round. [Remember, as says a random forgotten person's signature, "Confirmed good does not mean confirmed right."] Araris: Votes Archer because their flip will be useful. Archer: Analysis [which is quite good, but too long to really quote]. Suspects Vapor for vote switching, Illwei for being involved in lynches, Condensation and Gears for talking without voting. Illwei: ISO = isolation Araris: Too used to LGs. Switches to Vapor. Elandera: Votes Illwei for gut. Archer: Votes Vapor. Condensation: Ah. Illwei: Archer is solving the game. Votes Vapor for self-preservation, which evidently didn't go too well. Could someone remind me why people suspect Vapor? As far as I recall, it is only because of their late vote on Somebody, yes? Elandera feels off for some reason. They voted based on gut this late in the game despite numerous other candidates with legitimate reasoning behind it [specifically stating gut and not reiterating any reasoning]. This is a bad reason, but I don't really have any great suspects right now. Illwei was suspicious, and now they're dead. Maybe the confirmed good confirmed right fallacy has sunk into my mind. I would be alright with an Experience lynch, if only because I can't remember what they've done. I can also understand the Vapor lynch, assuming that the reasoning is the Somebody vote.
Elandera she/her Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 My first thought is that the elims are likely active. A few of our lynches have been decided at the last minute, but with three people killed it means none of their research was done on anyone who was lynched. Also, each of the targets had relatively low activity and no suspicion, so the elims are following along well enough to see that. 2 hours ago, Ookla the Paradoxical said: (Hey, Elandera, what're your pronouns?) She/her 3 hours ago, Ookla the Paradoxical said: Elandera, Gears, Liranil! You’ve lynched a villager! Care to explain? I'm 0 for 3 so far. In general, not doing great at all. A good portion of my vote was because I'd had a bad read on them from the beginning. It was just a gut read to start, which is why I mostly ignored it. Until last cycle when I saw an opportunity for a successful lynch there and decided I would keep tunneling if I didn't get an answer soon in that regards. So far, all of my reads have been wrong, but let's give it another shot. After all, we're all insane right? 1. Araris - Neutral to Elim. Araris has been around enough to fit the profile of following the thread closely enough to watch for activity and likely lynches. Seems to have tunneled on Experience for most of the game so far, but I wouldn't expect that from elim!Araris. But as Archer points out, they switch late in the cycle. 2. Archer - Neutral. I want to trust him, but it's difficult. They also fit the profile of following the thread, and have influenced it quite a bit. That could be an elim trying to sway so they don't lynch a research target. They also haven't pushed strongly for any lynch in particular, but urge everyone to always vote. I might be okay with an Archer lynch. 3. Condensation - Elim. Connie's been around, but hasn't particularly said much and hasn't voted a ton (maybe not at all). I'm not familiar with her style, but I believe Illwei said last turn this is a bit of a change from her past games. They also said there was a bandwagon on them when there was a single vote. I've noticed that new elims tend to be particularly paranoid about any votes on them, so that's pretty suspicious to me. I would also be okay with a Connie lynch, as she seems to fit the profile of trying to fly under the radar but around enough to keep track. 4. Experience - Neutral. A lot of the suspicion on them, from what I can remember, has been because of their vote on Gears C1. If I'm wrong, please correct me. I don't see them as trustworthy, but I also don't see that as elim behavior. They haven't said a whole lot, so could potentially be a lurking elim. I'd want to see more reasoning before a lynch, though. 5. Gears - Neutral. They've been doing a lot of the TL;DRs but not much otherwise. They do have the excuse of approaching finals, so I can't blame them for that. However, doing TL;DRs is extensive and a good excuse for them to follow the thread enough to place the right kinds of research orders. Gears may be sliding towards and elim read. 6. Liranil - Neutral. I believe this is their first game (what are your pronouns, @Liranil?) They haven't been shy at all about contributing and voting, but some of that appears to have been motivated by not getting targeted for suspicion by Archer. I'm not sure, as it's really hard for me to read new players. 7. Danex - Neutral. Three posts so far, so not much to go on. 8. Vapor - Neutral. Appears most of the suspicion on them is directly related to their last-minute vote on SfS in Cycle 2 and a subsequent lack of defense. I don't quite see that as overly suspicious, but it is odd. I don't think they've been around enough to fit the profile, but that doesn't mean they aren't elim. Just that they aren't that elim. I think of all of those, Connie is my biggest suspicion. The change of style, paranoia over a single vote, and general lack of commitment is all setting off my elim radar.
Condensation she/her Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Elandera said: 3. Condensation - Elim. Connie's been around, but hasn't particularly said much and hasn't voted a ton (maybe not at all). I'm not familiar with her style, but I believe Illwei said last turn this is a bit of a change from her past games. They also said there was a bandwagon on them when there was a single vote. I've noticed that new elims tend to be particularly paranoid about any votes on them, so that's pretty suspicious to me. I would also be okay with a Connie lynch, as she seems to fit the profile of trying to fly under the radar but around enough to keep track. I think of all of those, Connie is my biggest suspicion. The change of style, paranoia over a single vote, and general lack of commitment is all setting off my elim radar. Been around? Define been around, please. I voted once because everyone was on my back. The reason for the bandwagon comment was because in my other game, I nearly got lynched(7 to 6) on D1 but most of the votes were pretty bandwagon-y. I'm not trying to fly under the radar, far from it. I'm just trying to participate, but I'm busy and I'm focusing more on other things. Those three things(taken incorrectly) could imply that I'm an elim, but I hope I've satisfied your... I don't know, what's the right word? I hope you're satisfied with my explanations.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 I'm not going to have time to figure out my vote tonight, just as a heads up for everyone. I'll try and get one in tomorrow with at least a couple of hours left in the cycle for discussion.
dannnex male Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 (edited) Ok, I think I’ll vote Elandera. Every single one of their reads are Neutral except for Connie. Who other people had already said they were suspicious of. Seems like a very long post that says a whole lotta nothing. Very suspicious. That, plus the fact that they’ve voted for all 3 mislynches....yeah, fairly self-explanatory. Edited December 10, 2020 by Ookla the Disproportionate is it just me, or do the spaces between words in this post look too big?
Condensation she/her Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 6 hours ago, Ookla the Disproportionate said: Ok, I think I’ll vote Elandera. Every single one of their reads are Neutral except for Connie. Who other people had already said they were suspicious of. Seems like a very long post that says a whole lotta nothing. Very suspicious. That, plus the fact that they’ve voted for all 3 mislynches....yeah, fairly self-explanatory. 1) It's not just you, that's weird. 2) That does kind of make sense... What she's saying is that she agrees but she isn't bold enough to say it because she doesn't want to get lynched. Gosh, she's paranoid. I'll get her to vote eventually.
Elandera she/her Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 (edited) 7 hours ago, Ookla the Disproportionate said: Ok, I think I’ll vote Elandera. Every single one of their reads are Neutral except for Connie. Who other people had already said they were suspicious of. Seems like a very long post that says a whole lotta nothing. Very suspicious. That, plus the fact that they’ve voted for all 3 mislynches....yeah, fairly self-explanatory. Araris and Gears are also listed as bordering elim. I trust no one, but don't have solid evidence against anyone but Connie to list them as firmly elim. As for the mislynches, it's very, very rare that an elim lets themselves be caught on all of the mislynches in a game because of the attention it brings. That's a far greater indicator of why I'm village, because I don't have the knowledge of who is elim and who is village and am thus more likely to be wrong than an elim. Edit: oh, and the spacing is weird because your text is justified. Edited December 10, 2020 by Elandera
Liranil she/her Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 12 hours ago, Elandera said: 6. Liranil - Neutral. I believe this is their first game (what are your pronouns, @Liranil?) They haven't been shy at all about contributing and voting, but some of that appears to have been motivated by not getting targeted for suspicion by Archer. I'm not sure, as it's really hard for me to read new players. She/her. And yes, this is my first game, so I'm trying to be pretty involved to see if I want to commit to one of the longer games. Not that my input is the most helpful, but I'm not a very decisive person. 11 minutes ago, Elandera said: As for the mislynches, it's very, very rare that an elim lets themselves be caught on all of the mislynches in a game because of the attention it brings. That's a far greater indicator of why I'm village, because I don't have the knowledge of who is elim and who is village and am thus more likely to be wrong than an elim. So, idk if this is true or not, but the fact that you're the one arguing that shows that you could be using that idea as an elim to make yourself look less suspicious. I've been sus of Elandera since the beginning, and it seemed odd to me that Archer wasn't suspicious of her but was suspicious of everyone else, so I kind of paired them in my mind. I think Elandera is an elim and Archer is either an elim or has been pocketed. If Elandera ends up being innocent then I'm probably gonna look real bad, but she's my best guess right now. Also, I just want to note that Gears has been pretty favorable towards Archer in their (very helpful) summaries of the posts in each section. If I had to pin 3 right now I'd say Elandera/Archer/Gears, but I'm still sus of everybody. We'll see.
Archer he/him Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 I believe that makes three votes on Elandera, one on Vapor, and one on Connie. Since no one's joining me at the Vapor party, I'll shelve that theory until next round and vote Condensation. I think it's more likely Condensation than Elandera, even though I think it's a bit of a gamble. I do like the idea of trying to figure out who the groups of three are. My best guess is Vapor/one of Danex or Connie/one of Araris or Gears. We really need to get at least one person to buy us some time.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 If the choice is between Elandera and Condensation, it’s pretty easy. Elandera sort of fits my personal “be helpful vote a lot” elim profile, but she isn’t me, and I instead think she is genuinely trying to solve the game. Connie just hasn’t contributed as much substantive content. There are reasons, such as IRL stuff and relatively little experience, but I get more of a “don’t lynch me” rather than a “what can I do to win” from her. I’m uncomfortable with Danex’s vote on Elandera as well, although Liranil’s fits a bit better. My elim team would probably be 2 of Connie, Danex, and Vapor, plus 1 of Gears and Archer. Elandera could also go in that last slot, since I think someone on the elim team is spending a lot of time to figure out who to douse that won’t get lynched.
Condensation she/her Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 What, I leave for 4 hours and now I've got two more votes on me? Can I get a vote count?
Straw he/him Posted December 10, 2020 Author Posted December 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said: What, I leave for 4 hours and now I've got two more votes on me? Can I get a vote count? Please ping me for vote counts, but here's one: Condensation (3): Araris Valerian, Archer, Elandera Elandera (3): Gears, Liranil, Danex
Condensation she/her Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, Straw said: Please ping me for vote counts, but here's one: Condensation (3): Araris Valerian, Archer, Elandera Elandera (3): Gears, Liranil, Danex Okay, thanks. So it looks like out of the three people who have voted on me, Elandera is the only one with votes. So I'll vote Elandera to save myself. Usually I'd ask for reasoning on votes, but apparently QFs are different.
Liranil she/her Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said: Usually I'd ask for reasoning on votes, but apparently QFs are different. Hm. That makes me a little suspicious, because I felt like most everyone explained their reasoning pretty well. 2 hours ago, Ookla the Araris Valerian said: I’m uncomfortable with Danex’s vote on Elandera as well Part of Danex's reasoning seemed off to me, but I'm curious, what made you uncomfortable about it?
Condensation she/her Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Liranil said: Hm. That makes me a little suspicious, because I felt like most everyone explained their reasoning pretty well. Part of Danex's reasoning seemed off to me, but I'm curious, what made you uncomfortable about it? I gave answers for all of Elandera's suspicions and I don't feel like Archer has much reasoning.
Archer he/him Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 "Looks like it's time for someone to face the music." Crasher placed a tiny radio on the table. It began to play the Foo Fighters song Arlandria... Ain't that the way it always starts A simple round of conversation... "For what it's worth, I don't think it's you either."
Straw he/him Posted December 10, 2020 Author Posted December 10, 2020 After the attack, everyone was quite confused about what to do, so they decided to kill someone as usual. Elandera seemed pretty suspicious to them, since she hadn't shown any powers, so they killed her. Sadly, she was not a Reckoner. Elandera has died! She was a Lesser Epic. Vote Count Elandera (4): Condensation, Gears, Liranil, Danex Condensation (3): Araris Valerian, Archer, Elandera GM Notes The cycle will end on December 11th, at 5:00 PM EST. If you need a vote count, just @mention me and I'll give you one ASAP! The following players are receiving inactivity warnings: @Ookla the Shadowed, @Vapor. If they do not post by the end of the cycle they will be replaced. Player List Spoiler 1. A Joe in the Bush - Endless Wrath Lesser Epic 2. @Ookla the Araris Valerian (Araris Valerian) - Max 3. @Ookla the Paradoxical (Archer) - Crasher 4. @Ookla the Grammatical (Condensation) - Fritz 5. Elandera Lesser Epic 6. @Ookla the Shadowed (Experience) 7. @Gears - Mori 8. Ooklil' the Wei (Illwei) Lesser Epic 9. @Liranil - Natalie 10. Lord_Silberfarben Lesser Epic 11. Quinn0928 - Starstrike Lesser Epic 12. Somebody from Sel - Sal Cómin Lesser Epic 13. @Ookla the Disproportionate 14. TJ Shade Lesser Epic 15. @Vapor - Vanessa
dannnex male Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 Is this LyLo? I think this might be LyLo.
Condensation she/her Posted December 10, 2020 Posted December 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ookla the Disproportionate said: Is this LyLo? I think this might be LyLo. I think that's next cycle, right? Because there's eight players left?
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