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Long Game 44: Shadows of Elantris Redux


Herowannabe

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(8) BortElenionEternumAraris ValerianRanduirArinianDevotary of SpontaneityKidpenStraw

(3) The Honey BadgerLittle WilsonHemalurgic_HeadshotMraize

(1) KidpenTheYoungPyromancer,

(1) Araris ValerianA Joe in the Bush

(1) SteeldancerTheMightyLopen

(1) StrawStink

(1) A Joe In the BushSteelrunner

 

Chances are one of the 8 people voting for Bort are an elim. If you're looking for a new vote I'd chose the one you're most suspicious among them, @TheMightyLopen.

Edited by Amanuensis
Miscounted
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1 hour ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Fenot blinked. "Uh, sir?" He called out. "Did you pay me?"

Sheodan looked down. He was still holding the bag of gold. "Um, sorry. I was sure I had given this to you." He walked back and handed the 30 gold pieces to Fenot.

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1 hour ago, Bort said:

Since it seems I'm going to die anyways, here's a final word of warning before I head to bed. I am the owner of Seon Teo, and have been in contact with Amanuensis. He role claimed to me, but was extremely reluctant to give proof, which makes me doubt. This might be the real reason behind the sudden bandwagon on me - an attempt to get me out of the way before I reveal one of their own. He did eventually, after much persuading, agree to prove his claim, but if he can't, well, that would have been an eliminator outed on cycle 2.

If Aman is a Cultist making a false claim, it's likely that he would have picked a role held by a teammate, so it could be successfully faked.

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

EDIT: Honestly, Bort probably just confirmed he's village, if perhaps in the most annoying way.

So you're claiming to have a role that can be proven? There aren't many roles that are guaranteed to be provable. The Jindo warrior only triggers if their target is attacked, the Shu-Korath priest's scan can only be confirmed if their target is later killed, the Dula ability only triggers if someone votes on you, although I suppose you could also out the lover pair you made. The Monarch's double vote is hard to distinguish from someone using a passphrase, especially as you haven't voted. The only remaining roles are lover and Prince, and it's unlikely to be the former as you signed up thirty minutes before signups closed.

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

If he was a Jeskeri, he'd have informed the Jeskeri my role and thus have no need to make it publicly obvious that it's something confirmable, which just about guarantees my death tonight.

If your role guarantees your death, why did you offer to roleclaim to the first person who PM'd you? On the off chance you are a Jindo warrior, you can self protect.

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1 minute ago, Straw said:
 
 

Does anyone have a vote count?

(8) BortElenionEternumAraris ValerianRanduirArinianDevotary of SpontaneityKidpenStraw

(3) The Honey BadgerLittle WilsonHemalurgic_HeadshotMraize

(2) EternumTheMightyLopenTheYoungPyromancer

(1) Araris ValerianA Joe in the Bush

(1) StrawStink

(1) A Joe In the BushSteeldancer

Edited by Amanuensis
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Hey guys, sorry about my inactivity up till this point. I had forgotten just how intense the constant deluge of content is from a sanderson elimination game. I'm afraid I'm going to have to step down and let one of the pinch hitters fill my spot if possible. I don't want to make the game worse for anyone else, and I'm afraid I'm just not able to keep up, with everything. 

Thank you guys. I'll inform the moderators as to my plans, and I hope the game can continue on in a glorious and murderery fashion.  

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I walked towards the alchemist, and he whispered something in my ear. "A Joe in the Bush is innocent", I declared. At least, of being malicious in that particular instance. I headed back to the darkness. I had been procrastinating going to see my contact, the one person I both most needed to see and most dreaded to see. 

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Quick rule clarification, in case this situation ever arises (I haven’t logged all the votes or actions yet, so I don’t know if it will this cycle or not, I’m just being prepared):

Remember that casting a vote counts as an action, and each player is limited to two actions per cycle. If a player attempts to take 3 or more non-vote actions then only the first two actions submitted will be counted. Since players can change and withdraw votes at will throughout the day, Votes will not be logged until the end of the day after all other actions are logged. So, if a player takes more than 3 actions including a vote, then the vote will be cancelled, just as if the player had withdrawn their vote. . That’s all, as you were. ;) 

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  • Formative Zone: Too Early to Tell, A.K.A. Could Go Either Way. Not enough pressure at this stage in the game for eliminators to take risk. If an elim is present within this group, it will likely not be obvious. Significant analysis required.
    • Elenion
    • Eternum
    • Araris Valerian
  • Sweet Spot: These are the votes where decisions tend to be made and the masses tend to be swayed. Without villagers actively testing the water with counter-wagons, this is the safest place for an eliminator to vote in order to continuously encourage a pile-up.
    • Randuir
    • Arinian
    • Devotary of Spontaneity
  • The Clinchers: Like the players in the Formative Zone, these votes net minimal information. More often than not people in this group will be villagers, due to a lack of info and the inability to coordinate with allies. Elims favor caution and will more likely shy away from risking their necks like this for nothing.
    • Kidpen
    • Straw

I'm going to focus on the middle three.

Edited by Amanuensis
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Kainae couldn't get the Imperial Mint out of her head. It was like one she painted one thing for him, she couldn't stop.  She had a problem, an addiction, and she needed to break it somehow.

sketch-1523494138374.png


I'm not proud of the above sketch, btw. I literally threw it together in less than fifteen minutes when I saw what had gone on in the thread in the last 4 hours. The bandwagon on Bort is raising all kinds of red flags to me, and I shall be looking at basically everyone who voted for him, whatever your reasoning. There's nothing substantial going for him as a lynch candidate and it's D1. Bandwagons on D1 for no good reason are rarely purely village. 

I don't have reads on everyone in the wagon, but I'm not really liking Rand or Araris right now. I got a very off vibe from Rand's post voting for Bort and a couple others of his posts. I do not have time to analyze that more in depth right now because I am at work and won't get off until long after the turn ends. Araris could well just be paranoia because Araris tends to fly under the radar no matter his alignment and I do not wish to fall for that again. Beware, Araris: I will be watching you closely.

I'm okay with the Eternum lynch, as well, so for now, Badger , Eternum .

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1 minute ago, Kidpen said:

Where is Eternum lynching coming from? I barely remember him doing anything at all.

He made one post, so that's likely why you don't remember anything. That said, where's it coming from? Couldn't tell you. I don't really want it either, tbh.

I'm debating between Rand and Arin right now. Most likely going to vote for Rand, sifting through his posts now so I can provide reasoning.

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Hmmph. Not a fan of an 8 vote bandwagon on bort. But more than that, the reported interaction between Bort and Aman is village-indicative to me,  at least as far as anything can be d1. Eternum

I don't have suspicions there, but it's the viable counter lynch. And I'd rather lynch someone that i have no read on than someone who i have reason to believe is village

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Huh. I thought the Day was over [insert time when you actually finish your post]30 minutes ago, which is why I was so hurried. I'm back now though, and the lynch on Eternum actually seems to have gained momentum. Initially I was suspicious of him because he posted early on about the Joe/Kidpen claiming to be elims saying that we had stuff to talk about, but then didn't proceed to say what he thought about it or anything else(until a few hours ago, but I'm just now getting the time to read over what I missed in-depth). That's what my reasoning for voting him was. The other players voting on Bort I didn't have any read on or I had slight village reads on(but again, I haven't had time to look over the Bort lynch, so those might change).

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In retrospect, Eternum's post is really eh but, like, it's his only (real) one so I'm not sure how much can be gleaned from it.

3 hours ago, randuir said:
 
 
 
 
 
 

Given that we've got pinch-hitters, I really don't see how this is helping anyone, HH

As for the Bort/Kidpen discussion, I can see a case for lynching Bort, but not so much for lynching Kidpen. Kidpen's opening was just weird, but it attracts attention in a way elims probably wouldn't enjoy. Why open with saying that you're an elim in the hope that people will just brush it off as a joke if you could also not do that, keeping you out of the spotlight?

Elenion does seem to have a point about how Bort seemed too aggressive, but I'm still wary of him because of the way he phrased that initial accusation.

I haven't seen any discussion about not worrying about Jeskeri. I have seen people discussing ways to counter the Derethi because that's just easier to discuss right now because of the mechanics involved. 

Actually, HH, Bort. Bort seems to be grasping for reasons and justification for why he did what he did, which just feels off. I do suspect HH, and if Bort flips elim HH will be my next suspicion, as his vote for Badger could have been intended to save a team-mate.

Honestly this post is the one that makes me want to vote for Rand, practically alone. He's the only player that's mentioned pinch-hitters (that I could find in a quick ctrl+f of all pages) and he emphasizes it at a point where Honey Badger is tied for 3 votes with Bort. Then he kicks the lynch in Bort's direction without any real analysis or reasoning. Not a huge fan of "feels off." Whether or not Honey Badger is an elim with Rand, I think his reasoning for advocating he lived is skewed in the direction of an eliminators mindset. If Rand is Evil and HB is Good, then he potentially nets some FeelsGoodMan for letting a Pinch Hitter take over for a villager, while simultaneously helping remove a villager that's been active for a turn already. On the other hand, if HB is Jeskeri with Rand, he gains just as much if not more by making this play as it allows him to preserve an inactive teammate long enough to get replaced.

Compare that to Eternum who discourages the vote on HB because it nets us little information (which is a significantly more viable reason, in my opinion) and I feel less confident in Rand's Citizenship than I do Eternum.

So, Rand.

@TheMightyLopen, @Seonid, @little wilson, @TheYoungPyromancer, and anyone else who's around, want to join me?

 

(7) BortElenionEternumAraris ValerianRanduirArinianDevotary of SpontaneityKidpenStraw

(4) EternumTheMightyLopenTheYoungPyromancerlittle wilsonSeonid

(3) The Honey BadgerLittle WilsonHemalurgic_HeadshotMraize

(1) Araris ValerianA Joe in the Bush

(1) StrawStink

(1) randuirAmanuensis

Edited by Amanuensis
Clarified my last sentence regarding Rand/Eternum + Straw removed his vote shortly after me posting this
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