Long Game 43: Under the Banner of Adonalsium

[Magestar]

4 hours ago, randuir said:

I doubt you'd risk a team member for a setup like this, so if Mage confirms this, I suppose there's no reason not to believe your claim.

 

5 hours ago, Straw said:

Well, looks like it’s time to reveal that I’m Preservation. Proof: on D2, I invested in @Magestar. If you guys want further proof, you can decide on someone for me to invest in, and I’ll invest in them. So far, I haven’t gained a unique win condition.

Yep.  I was wondering about that, actually.   And, to parrot Joe a bit, why me?  Out of curiosity.

Also, sorry for sorta wasting that;  I forgot all about rollover, and didn't use the action.  Terrible disappointment, I know.

Edited March 24, 2018 by Magestar

[Seonid]

2 hours ago, randuir said:

No, they get one per turn, turn meaning day or night turn if I'm not mistaken (right, @Seonid?). That means Shards get 3, and normal people 2 per cycle.

Correct 

[Eternum]

I'll vote on HH too. I've been following the thread, but I really don't have much to say.

[Straw]

@Magestar I chose you because you had claimed to have no Shards. In the future, it’d be a good idea for Mistborn to target people who are known to be Shards, therefore discouraging Odium from attacking them.

[Magestar]

1 hour ago, Straw said:

@Magestar I chose you because you had claimed to have no Shards. In the future, it’d be a good idea for Mistborn to target people who are known to be Shards, therefore discouraging Odium from attacking them.

Yeah, I get that it would have been a good idea.  I missed rollover after a busy day, though, and a couple elements conspired against me placing an action.

Ah well.

Edited March 24, 2018 by Magestar

[DeTess]

This'll be my final post for this cycle. Since no one else provided one, have a vote tally.

Vote tally

HH(7): Elbereth, Stick, Fifth, Jondesu, Straw, Arinian, Eternum
Straw(2): Pyro, Magestar, stick, HH
Drought(2): Randuir, Megasif
Arinian(1): HH

I considered adding my vote to HH as well. In fact, until I spotted that discrepancy with Droughtbringer I'd been planning on voting on him. However, my main reason was that there'd been so much discussion around him that knowing his alignment would just be rather advantageous. That wasn't a particular good reason then, and it still isn't now, so I'll keep my vote on Drought.

[Fifth Scholar]

@randuir there’s a little over a day left in this cycle, so unless you have commitments tomorrow you should be able to post again, because rollover was extended.

What’s your exact reasoning for voting on Drought, again?

[DeTess]

1 minute ago, Fifth Scholar said:

@randuir there’s a little over a day left in this cycle, so unless you have commitments tomorrow you should be able to post again, because rollover was extended.

What’s your exact reasoning for voting on Drought, again?

Oh, you're right, I'd forgotten about the extension.

My reason for voting on Drought was that his posts in the last cycle where incredibly low-content. In about a dozen posts, there where only two in which he really seemed to be providing views of the game. All the others where either questions for the GM's, or one-liners in response to things people said. He never really commented on the Pyro and straw lynch possibilities, and just generally seemed to be intentionally flying under the radar.

[DrakeMarshall]

On 3/23/2018 at 2:30 AM, Fifth Scholar said:

Interesting. Odium just killed one of the targets that was likely to be Odium. And Ruin did nothing, as far as I can tell. That seems rather odd, but he may well have been roleblocked. It still bothers me though. I’ll have a look through the rules, and see what could have blocked Ruin’s action.

After two days of failed lynches, I’m of a mind not to use this cycle’s lynch on Pyro. Can somebody sum up the reasoning behind the Straw lynch yesterday? I’m curious as to why people were voting for him. I want to look at other targets, obviously, but I’m not sure why so many people wanted him dead last cycle.

Interesting, yes. That changes some things.

My reasoning for casting a vote on Straw was the Sand Lord lynch, which would have been extremely beneficial to Ruin. Given that Ruin did not use their power or was blocked, I am slightly less inclined to follow that up today.

Incidentally, I agree that the Pyromancer lynch would be a waste. We've already had two days where not much was gained from the lynch, and I do believe Pyromancer's claim to Survival, even if I really don't believe that Pyromancer is nearly as pro-village as he is letting on.

On 3/23/2018 at 2:35 AM, randuir said:

Welp, if anyone was hoping Dominion would  be put back, I think you can forget about that. I just got my action redirected towards pyro. As I can't think of any indication I might have given that I had something to kill pyro with, I'm assuming the goal of this was to just mess around with powers to flip to the alternate win-con.

This statement feels kind of off to me, though I'm having a hard time defining why. I'm not sure anyone was particularly expecting that Dominion would be placed back into containment. I guess it kind of feels like you are referencing some previous conversation, but not one that happened in the thread.

On 3/23/2018 at 7:32 AM, TheYoungPyromancer said:

I was roleblocked.  I don't really care that much.

Why don't you guys trust me?  I swear by Honor I will give them back.  Plus, I wouldn't get Odium and Ruin at the same time.  That would leave me vulnerable to the other one.  Plus, in your theoretical situation, it would be impossible for me to win with either Hoid or Khriss's sudden death, so the village would be highly likely to win.

It occurs to me that Survival's shardic win condition is probably compatible with Odium or Ruin's shardic win conditions.

I've pretty much always believed you were Survival, because you were so very eager to claim Survival, and quite early in the game no less. I also don't really care to lynch you; and I'm surprised so many people wanted to lynch you when it wouldn't even kill you. But no, I don't really trust you, and probably won't be persuaded to trust you.

Still happy to talk about other things though. I've enjoyed chatting with you in this game so far, and definitely hope to see you in future games.

9 hours ago, randuir said:

I'd have liked to see a response from @Drake Marshall on my reads on him, though I admit I didn't give him much in particular to work with. I just want to see a response because it might help with figuring him out. It's too late in the cycle for a poke-vote on him though, and that would just be delaying placing an actual vote anyway.

As you say, I do not have much to work with, but I will respond if that improves your analysis. This is the read in question, right?

Quote

I'm unsure about Drake. He seems a bit more reactive than proactive in his posts. He provides reads on active people and responses on events in the game, but they seem to be mostly focused on mentioning what has happened, without providing solutions. I'm not sure how alignment indicative this is, as its something that goes for more people than just Drake, but I've also seen quite a few players share plans for solving (parts of) the game.

He mentioned that he's curious about Ruin's blowing up Braize, while before he responded with "I like how you are thinking." to Straw suggesting that course of action for Ruin. I'm not sure what this means, but it makes me wonder if maybe (and this is a fairly unlikely maybe) Drake is Ruin, and made that post as a distancing attempt, forgetting about his earlier response to Straw.

None of this points to him being an elim. I don't have a smoking gun to point to like I did in Timeline-0. However, it does make me somewhat uneasy about Drake. Neutral read.

I might appreciate it if you explained more what you meant by reactive play. I've been a little distracted, but I would like to think I've taken some initiative in this game. I've tried to make legitimate lynch suggestions every cycle, sometimes in contrast with a prevailing sentiment not to lynch anybody. Granted though, I'm not going out of my way to provoke a reaction from others to gather information (see: LG41). I guess I didn't really like how that turned out.

With regard to Ruin blowing up Braize, I honestly did not remember that suggestion. I was paying more attention to the suggestion made for Odium, I suppose. I had recently been relieved of my position of Hoid, and was thinking that shattered shards would be really annoying for Hoid. Still, while I don't really remember it, you are probably right that I did think blowing up Braize was a good idea at the time. Although if I were distancing myself from Ruin, I probably would not have been the first person to make a post raising awareness about the threat Ruin poses, arguably greater than that of Odium. The threat of Ruin may be moot though, as Ruin has declined to destroy another planet last night, and may not be anti-village.

6 hours ago, Straw said:

Well, looks like it’s time to reveal that I’m Preservation. Proof: on D2, I invested in @Magestar. If you guys want further proof, you can decide on someone for me to invest in, and I’ll invest in them. So far, I haven’t gained a unique win condition.

Interesting. Well if Mage backs that up I won't dispute it, though this doesn't fully negate my concerns about your alignment.

However, I do have a request for you, actually. Could you maybe try investing Randuir? He claimed to have attempted to siphon a shard only to have the action redirected. If he is a vessel, that would imply he was doing it to help a teammate. If he is not a vessel, then he would be that much more likely to use the mistborn role to benefit the village.

3 hours ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

I thought they scanned as a power.  They claimed they had a very good reason for trusting him.  I just assumed. And no, HH is not Autonomy.  I know who Autonomy is for sure.  It isn't just a claim.

This whole interaction with Autonomy kind of confuses me. My gut says that there's something more to this story that's still under wraps. But I can't really speculate what unless pyromancer or autonomy happens to tell us more.

 

Lynch-wise, I am bothered that two consecutive days of voting turned out to be a flop. I respect that this game has a storming glorious legacy, and so I respect that we might be reluctant to kill anyone too quickly. But I also want to maintain a lively discussion.

Following Straw's claim, I'm not quite as keen on lynching them. I've never been very keen on lynching Pyromancer. And while this is the third consecutive cycle that I've seen rational accusations leveled at HH, I'm still not seeing the case very clearly.

I am primarily suspicious of those who played a role in two consecutively failed lynches, as this is an easy way to stifle discussion while simultaneously keeping one's head down. For that reason, after examining the last two days, I am particularly suspicious of Jondesu. Jondesu voted no-lynch the first day, pyro the second, and is currently bandwagonning HH. @Jondesu, I think I would be grateful if you offered further explanation to those votes.

[The Young Pyromancer]

1 hour ago, Drake Marshall said:

 

Still happy to talk about other things though. I've enjoyed chatting with you in this game so far, and definitely hope to see you in future games

Aww, thanks!

[The Young Pyromancer]

Okay.  @A Joe in the Bush, here is how I can help the village:  By telling you what I have deduced.

Assertion: Odium is Khriss.  That is the most reasonable explanation I can come up with.

1. I was not attacked the night when I claimed Survival.  There are 4 possibilities.                         

1a.  Odium wasn't on when I claimed.

1b.  Odium decided to go after Cultivation, like I said.

1c.  Odium is in the hands of Khriss, and therefore didn't need to attack me.                                         

1d.  Odium planned to launder his Shard, and therefore was trying to help the village.  Unlikely.

2. I was not attacked last night (in game, not real time).  There is only really 2 options.                                                                                                           2a.  Odium is in the hands of Khriss, and therefore didn't need to attack me.                                                                                                                           2b.  Odium planned to launder his Shard, and therefore was trying to help the village.  More likely than last time, but not by much.

EDIT:Sorry for double-posting!  I thought someone else had posted.

Edited March 25, 2018 by TheYoungPyromancer

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

5 hours ago, randuir said:

Okay, so with w actions per cycle (so day and night combined), autonomy could have scanned HH's action N1. I can't think if any result that would be indicative of HH being village though. Did I miss a possibillity?

Quote

At the start of every Cycle, every player on that Shardworld will receive a charge of the invested Shard’s investiture.

Autonomy could not have gotten a charge of their own Investiture until day 2, unless it turns out that since the game began on the night turn, Investiture gained this way is acquired at the beginning of the night turn. @Seonid, is this the case?

2 hours ago, Straw said:

In the future, it’d be a good idea for Mistborn to target people who are known to be Shards, therefore discouraging Odium from attacking them.

Personally, if I received the Mistborn role I wouldn't use it. Killing players who target Shards seems like a good way of ending up with dead villagers, especially as neither Hoid nor Khrissala would attempt to convert a confirmed Shard. An elim!Mistborn can coordinate with their team to avoid friendly fire, but a village Mistborn is just attacking randomly and hoping for the best.

58 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

However, I do have a request for you, actually. Could you maybe try investing Randuir? He claimed to have attempted to siphon a shard only to have the action redirected. If he is a vessel, that would imply he was doing it to help a teammate. If he is not a vessel, then he would be that much more likely to use the mistborn role to benefit the village.

Why would lying about being a Vessel make you think it's more likely that Randuir is a villager? While a Vessel cannot gain another Shard, having a charge of Investiture that would let him protect a player, give a player an extra action, or cancel a player's vote could be useful, especially if Randuir trusts certain players enough to be willing to pass his Shard to them.

Time for theorizing what Shard Randuir holds! I hesitate to post this, but since nothing is stopping Vessel!Randuir from passing his Shard today, I don't believe this is an unnecessary burden.

Randuir claims here that he holds a Shard other than Cultivation.
 

Quote

There's not much use denying it now. I do indeed hold a shard. I also still have my original win-con, and there's a couple of people I trust enough to start passing this thing around. I was somewhat conflicted about doing that, as shardic win-cons sound fun (but going for one means I'm going against my village win-con, not that hat seems to be stopping anyone else), but it's probably pretty unachievable if people already know I hold one. I won't reveal which I hold, just that it isn't Cultivation.

Since Straw claimed Preservation and Mage backed him up, it's unlikely that Randuir holds Preservation, and unless Pyromancer is lying here:

7 hours ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

I have confirmed my contact as Autonomy as they are on Scadrial with me.  They are the only other person, so they must have hopped there and created the aspect.  

Randuir cannot hold Survival or Autonomy. That leaves Ruin, Odium, Dominion, and Ambition. 

Quote

TheYoungPyromancer (9): Eternum, Fifth Scholar, Hemalurgic Headshot, Jondesu, livinglegend, MonsterMetroid, Randuir, Steeldancer, Straw
Straw (6): Drake Marshall, Sart, Stick, TheYoungPyromancer, Young Bard, Anonymous

If Randuir is Ambition, it would mean that he wasted his vote by voting for both Straw and Pyromancer. Since Odium killed Steel, Randuir cannot be Odium unless he was lying about being redirected to Pyromancer. And of course if Randuir is Dominion, then Dominion almost certainly did not redirect him. That leaves Ruin as the most likely Shard for Randuir to hold if he's being honest. From most to least likely Shards, I would rank them as Ruin>Dominion=Ambition>Cultivation=Odium>Autonomy>Survival.

This analysis made a lot of assumptions. Notably, it assumes that Randuir wasn't lying about being a Shard as this would be easy to disprove. I welcome @randuir to explain where I went wrong.

[Fifth Scholar]

If Randuir was redirected by Dominion, he would have had to take an action that is targetable by Dominion’s ability: Ruin’s kill action, which would have registered in the writeup, so providing Randuir is telling the truth about being redirected, which I think he is, he can’t be Ruin.

He isn’t Odium or Dominion, unless he’s a very gutsy Dominion. But I find that unlikely. 

Ambition is a distinct possibility. 

Don’t see why he couldn’t be Autonomy, as Randuir could be on Scadrial right now.

Preservation is a possibility if (tinfoil incoming) he’s Elim teammates with Straw. That may explain the lack of an action on Ruin’s part, actually- a Ruin!Elim!Straw could have arranged to kill Pyro, and a Preservation!Elim!Randuir could have invested Randuir and targeted someone else at night, then gotten redirected to Pyro. Told you it was a tinfoil

He’s likely not Survival, but could be Culty assuming Cultivation!Elim!Randuir. Again, tinfoil. 

I see Ambition>Autonomy>Preservation=Cultivation>Odium=Ruin=Dominion=Survival. There.

Edit: Nope, Ambition’s out, because he targets in dead doc and there wasn’t anyone there. Plus, just realized Pyro claimed he was roleblocked, and Randuir claimed to have been redirected to Pyro. Barring tinfoils, we’ve found Autonomy. 

Edit 2: This begs the question, @randuir: Did you take action(s) that clear HH, and if so, what were they?

Edited March 25, 2018 by Fifth Scholar

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

 

10 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

If Randuir was redirected by Dominion, he would have had to take an action that is targetable by Dominion’s ability: Ruin’s kill action, which would have registered in the writeup, so providing Randuir is telling the truth about being redirected, which I think he is, he can’t be Ruin.

He isn’t Odium or Dominion, unless he’s a very gutsy Dominion. But I find that unlikely. 

Ambition is a distinct possibility. 

Don’t see why he couldn’t be Autonomy, as Randuir could be on Scadrial right now.

Preservation is a possibility if (tinfoil incoming) he’s Elim teammates with Straw. That may explain the lack of an action on Ruin’s part, actually- a Ruin!Elim!Straw could have arranged to kill Pyro, and a Preservation!Elim!Randuir could have invested Randuir and targeted someone else at night, then gotten redirected to Pyro. Told you it was a tinfoil

He’s likely not Survival, but could be Culty assuming Cultivation!Elim!Randuir. Again, tinfoil. 

I see Ambition>Autonomy>Preservation=Cultivation>Odium=Ruin=Dominion=Survival. There.

Edit: Nope, Ambition’s out, because he targets in dead doc and there wasn’t anyone there. Plus, just realized Pyro claimed he was roleblocked, and Randuir claimed to have been redirected to Pyro. Barring tinfoils, we’ve found Autonomy. 

It is still possible that Randuir could, as he claims, be a Vessel who attempted to siphon Investiture last night. That wouldn't rule out him being Ruin or Ambition. Also, Preservation cannot self-invest as they are a Shard. Additionally, Mage has backed up Straw's claim that Mage was Invested by Preservation.

@TheYoungPyromancer, would you confirm whether or not Randuir is on Scadrial with you?

[Fifth Scholar]

World docs are anonymous (I think, from what Pyro’s said).

Dominion can only redirect actions that target a specific player. So if Randuir is a Shard, and was redirected by Dominion, he took an action that targeted a player. So Ruin/Ambition are out, I think.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

World docs are anonymous (I think, from what Pyro’s said).

Dominion can only redirect actions that target a specific player. So if Randuir is a Shard, and was redirected by Dominion, he took an action that targeted a player. So Ruin/Ambition are out, I think.

I can confirm that world docs are not anonymous. @Seonid, can Dominion redirect actions that target a Shard is containment? If not, then Randuir was lying about trying to steal Investiture last night.

[Fifth Scholar]

Quote

Dominion:

Shardic Ability - You may use your action during the Night Turn to redirect any actions another player takes to a different player (living or dead). Any actions that do not target a player cannot be redirected.

This.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Fascinating. Randuir, what actually happened last night?

[Arrae]

Vote tally:

Hemalurgic Headshot (7): Elbereth, Stick, Stick, Fifth Scholar, Jondesu, Straw, Arinian, Eternum
Straw (2): Pyromancer, Magestar, Hemalurgic Headshot, Stick
Droughtbringer (2): Randuir, Megasif
Arinian (1): Hermalurgic Headshot
Jondesu (1): Drake
Randuir (1): Devotary

[Seonid]

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Autonomy could not have gotten a charge of their own Investiture until day 2, unless it turns out that since the game began on the night turn, Investiture gained this way is acquired at the beginning of the night turn. @Seonid, is this the case?

Personally, if I received the Mistborn role I wouldn't use it. Killing players who target Shards seems like a good way of ending up with dead villagers, especially as neither Hoid nor Khrissala would attempt to convert a confirmed Shard. An elim!Mistborn can coordinate with their team to avoid friendly fire, but a village Mistborn is just attacking randomly and hoping for the best.

Why would lying about being a Vessel make you think it's more likely that Randuir is a villager? While a Vessel cannot gain another Shard, having a charge of Investiture that would let him protect a player, give a player an extra action, or cancel a player's vote could be useful, especially if Randuir trusts certain players enough to be willing to pass his Shard to them.

Time for theorizing what Shard Randuir holds! I hesitate to post this, but since nothing is stopping Vessel!Randuir from passing his Shard today, I don't believe this is an unnecessary burden.

Randuir claims here that he holds a Shard other than Cultivation.
 

Since Straw claimed Preservation and Mage backed him up, it's unlikely that Randuir holds Preservation, and unless Pyromancer is lying here:

Randuir cannot hold Survival or Autonomy. That leaves Ruin, Odium, Dominion, and Ambition. 

If Randuir is Ambition, it would mean that he wasted his vote by voting for both Straw and Pyromancer. Since Odium killed Steel, Randuir cannot be Odium unless he was lying about being redirected to Pyromancer. And of course if Randuir is Dominion, then Dominion almost certainly did not redirect him. That leaves Ruin as the most likely Shard for Randuir to hold if he's being honest. From most to least likely Shards, I would rank them as Ruin>Dominion=Ambition>Cultivation=Odium>Autonomy>Survival.

This analysis made a lot of assumptions. Notably, it assumes that Randuir wasn't lying about being a Shard as this would be easy to disprove. I welcome @randuir to explain where I went wrong.

The rules are admittedly unclear on this point. Aspects of autonomy do not grant investiture, only full shards. Investiture is granted at the start of the round.

24 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I can confirm that world docs are not anonymous. @Seonid, can Dominion redirect actions that target a Shard is containment? If not, then Randuir was lying about trying to steal Investiture last night.

Mistakes were made, and I forgot about a rule.

[Arrae]

To all players: could you please PM me the last names of your RP characters? This will increase your chances of being featured in a writeup.

[The Young Pyromancer]

Randuir is not Autonomy.

[Young Bard]

Hmmm...

The (highly subjective) way I see the vote tally right now:

HH: A bunch
Straw: A few
Pyromancer: One or two (I think - there was certainly conversation - I can't remember if that's been translated in votes)
Droughtbringer: Randuir
Anybody else: Nobody

This is... a fairly narrow avenue of conversation, IMO - I'll probably end up switching my vote to HH before cycle's end, (hopefully with a fair amount of analysis, though that's probably optimistic for lazy old me, as always). So, I'm going to try and broaden out the lynch discussion a little bit.

On 3/23/2018 at 6:35 PM, Seonid said:

Player List:

1. Young Bard - Jeral
   1. Not applicable
2. Arinian - Eilen
   1. Advocated the no lynch faction, which advantages the Eliminators by preventing the village from gaining solid information. Mild suspicion.
3. Eternum - Habrian
   1. Too inactive to tell. @Eternum (I can't remember whether that's normal for them - do you have any thoughts on anybody/thing in the game so far?)
4. Fifth Scholar - Darrel
   1. ...Gah, this is why I should take notes this game. They had a fair bit of discussion around them N0/D1, and I can't for the life of me remember why. I might try and reread what they've posted.
5. randuir - Met
   1. I can't get anything out of Rand, at all. Functionally, that makes him neutral, but due to paranoia, that's probably a mild suspicion.
6. Steeldancer - Steeldancer and Eobard Thawne 17th Shard aligned Researcher
   1. It's worth trying to figure out who Steel was in contact with, and what he said, and whether that might have contributed to his death. Steel was very publicly interested in obtaining Odium, and then Odium killed him... I think that's probably a coincidence, but still probably worth pointing out. We could possibly narrow things down by checking the planet Steel was on, and the people on Taldain, because we know one of them had to be Odium? That probably wouldn't narrow it down much, though.
7. Straw - Straw
   1. Mildly suspicious, but they've claimed Preservation, which presumably the real Preservation would counterclaim if false, and someone else has backed it up. Tentative trust that Straw is Preservation.
8. Jondesu - Quintus
   1. Too inactive to tell. @Jondesu I called them out on this last time I pinged the inactives, and they basically said "I don't think I'm going to find the Eliminators - I'll do my bit" (paraphrased) - I just want to respond by saying that the way you get better is through practice. Wilson and Joe and Elbereth and Orlok got their skills by honing them over time - giving up like that isn't the answer. Try and do what I'm doing now - even if you're wrong, it might help you get better next time. Plus, it's just fun.
9. Droughtbringer - Ralar
   1. Too inactive to tell.  @Droughtbringer They were a bit more active when they analysed a few players (in a bit more depth than I'm doing now) in Day... 1(?) after I poke-voted them, but I don't think I saw them respond at all to Rand's vote today. I'm assuming (or hoping) they're just busy IRL, and will be back soon.
10. Devotary of Sponteneity - Reed
    1. Hmmm... I've been watching their posts, and they've been mildly suspicious, but I'm not sure whether that's been because I'm tunnelling on Devotary since Day 1 or whether I'm seeing something that's actually there. Mild suspicion.
11. livinglegend - Unnamed Character 3
    1. Quite inactive (@livinglegend), but I wouldn't say too inactive to tell. I saw them post once this Cycle, to comment on how strange that the only Shard not to be released was Honor, and how strange that was. That seems like a fairly NAI comment, and they avoided talking about anything relevant to the lynch at all, which could be an Eliminator trying to incriminate themselves. So, I'll vote livinglegend, partly as a poke vote, partly as a vote of suspicion. 
12. A Joe in the Bush - Locke Tekiel
    1. Orlok's similar to Rand, in that I struggle to read anything in them, and Joe's still getting his bearings, so I'm going to say neutral, with a touch of paranoia.
13. MonsterMetroid - Willie
    1. I'd be curious to hear more from them... I feel like I should have more of a read on them than I do for the amount they've posted. I'm making a mental note (that I'll probably ignore) to look over their posts a little later and dig into what they've said a little more.
14. Magestar - Moro
    1. I can't read Mage very well - I tend to give him false Elim reads for some reason. He backed up Straw's claim that Straw was Preservation - I'm inclined to say that that's more than a fellow Eliminator would do to protect a teammate this early in the game, and I find his actions slightly village-y, though his language still seems strange in a way I can't quite place.
15. Hemalurgic_Headshot - Jiamo
    1. They're moderately suspicious, but the discussion on them isn't really useful anymore. I can get behind lynching them, but let's try and talk about someone else.
16. Megasif - Mega
    1. Too inactive to tell. @Megasif (From memory, that's... fairly normal for him.)
17. Sart - Sam Taswell
    1. Too inactive to tell. @Sart (Very normal for them - they're probably watching, and not commenting much. I'd still like them to post a few more thoughts, though.)
18. TheYoungPyromancer - Kelsier
    1. I trust their Survival claim, and discussion on them has long since become useless.
19. _Stick_ - Stick
    1. I'm... torn. On the one hand, I think they're providing good analysis, and their actions seem very villager-y. On the other hand, I find that their language also has something I find off-putting about it, and I can't place why. I think it's got something to do with them seeming too... confident and assured where everybody else is in the midst of paranoia, but I don't know why my brain is signalling out Stick's posts for that.
20. shanerockes - Philepe De Pedro Von Leiderhuch Johnson III
    1. Too inactive to tell. @shanerockes (I don't know their regular playstyle.)
21. Drake Marshall - Everen
    1. Similar to Rand and Orlok, I struggle to get a read on Drake. Officially neutral, with some paranoia thrown in.
22. Elbereth - Elaria
    1. Fairly strong trust read as I can - I don't think Elim El would be as direct as she's been.
23. The Sand Lord (Nalthis)
24. Patji (Scadrial)
    1. (This is for 23/24 together) We have more important things to do than dealing with Autonomy now. If he's clearly opposing the village, we can discuss this again.

Let's see... The players I want to examine in more detail (I'll try to get to it before cycle's end) are:

Fifth Scholar
Devotary of Spontanaeity
LivingLegend
MonsterMetroid

If any other players (especially those who I called out as inactive) want to comment on one of the above four players, please do.

Oh, and for the people who are a part of these new PM's - I'd like to quickly reiterate the point Orlok made while he was around: Don't trust any group PM's you are in - the chance that every single player is a villager is extraordinarily slim - the chance that they will remain that way for the whole game is even less.

[MonsterMetroid]

On 3/23/2018 at 7:45 PM, Elbereth said:

I want to point out the contrast between this and your post from yesterday, which outlined 5 possibilities if he survived (or two, if you prefer to put investiture under a single heading). One of which was that he was telling the truth. 

Why, then, do you suddenly state so strongly that you trust Pyro? What reason do you have for believing that he didn't use Preservation? 

Also, side note and not directly related to this post in particular, but am getting a strange read from you this cycle. I'll point it out more carefully later if I remember, but will be watching regardless. 

I didn't say that I strongly believed, just that I believed him. I think that last cycle I may have tunneled a bit too hard onto Pyro because there was too many things that he said that didn't make sense to me. Now that I have reevaluated things a bit I feel like I am getting a clearer picture of things. the post Pyro made here really resonated with me

specifically where he says

Quote

Because I want to be nice.  Also because it isn't that important.  I admit I am not playing this game optimally.  I am having fun.

A lot of the time I assume that teh reason peopel are making posts is to play optimally and thats a bad assumption on my part. That being said While I believe now that he is survival I do acknowledge the possibility that he could have used preservation.... my gut is just saying that he didn't though. I don't know if that makes sense but I will contine to revaluate and whecther he is survival or something else I dont really trust him not to betray the village either way.

As for the strange read for me I don't really know what to say to that besides I did rush my posts a bit yesterday for the blue reason I stated in thread and today I have been hanging out with my brother in town which is why I haven't been as active as usual. Thanks for the tag though as I forgot that I really need to participate more but since it is nearly midnight I will have to find time to catch up tomorrow :'(

If you need me to respond or would like my thoughts please tag me otherwise I will try to catch up and vote before cycle end tomorrow.

[DeTess]

7 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

If Randuir was redirected by Dominion, he would have had to take an action that is targetable by Dominion’s ability: Ruin’s kill action, which would have registered in the writeup, so providing Randuir is telling the truth about being redirected, which I think he is, he can’t be Ruin.

 

6 hours ago, Seonid said:

Mistakes were made, and I forgot about a rule.

As Seonid said, my syphon shouldn't actually have been redirected.

( @Devotary of Spontaneity, does that explain enough of what happened?)

Also, knowing that aspects of autonomy don't grant investiture means that autonomy couldn't have scanned HH at all, as they had no way to get their own investiture.

9 hours ago, Drake Marshall said:

I might appreciate it if you explained more what you meant by reactive play. I've been a little distracted, but I would like to think I've taken some initiative in this game. I've tried to make legitimate lynch suggestions every cycle, sometimes in contrast with a prevailing sentiment not to lynch anybody. Granted though, I'm not going out of my way to provoke a reaction from others to gather information (see: LG41). I guess I didn't really like how that turned out.

What I meant is that you seemed to be focusing your attention mostly on the obvious active targets, and not really looking at anyone else. Trying to lead a lynch is definitely proactive play, but if your attention seems to be only on the 6 or so most active players it isn't really.

A post like this one is the reason I wanted a response btw, as it seems to me to be a lot more proactive than earlier posts(voting on a less obvious target in particular stands out, and is an indicator of analysis going further back than the thread of the current turn, which is good).