Long Game 43: Under the Banner of Adonalsium

[Fifth Scholar]

Okay, Randuir. Do you still claim to have a Shard? Is it Ambition? (It’s that or Ruin, so...)

And Pyro, if world docs aren’t anonymous, we’d all love to know who Autonomy is. 

[DeTess]

7 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Okay, Randuir. Do you still claim to have a Shard? Is it Ambition? (It’s that or Ruin, so...)

*Shrug*. Yeah, it's Ambition. I considered for a while whether it'd be better to keep that a secret or not, but the applied analysis narrowed it down to two good possibilities, and I think it's probably better to confirm that I'm not Ruin.

Also, I believe some people wondered why I went for more investiture. The reason for that was that with the planets currently available, any investiture I could get could be used for a lot of different things (extra lives, roleblocks, protects, etc.), and I'd hoped the one I picked would be of little interest to other people. I guessed wrong though (I'd gone for devotion).

Edit: when I said devotion, I meant endowment.

Edited March 25, 2018 by randuir

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

And Pyro, if world docs aren’t anonymous, we’d all love to know who Autonomy is. 

*THUNDERCLAP*

IT IS I!

No use in keeping it a secret now. Do what you will with this information. It looks like I'll die this cycle anyways, unless quite a few of you change your minds.

[DeTess]

40 minutes ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

*THUNDERCLAP*

IT IS I!

No use in keeping it a secret now. Do what you will with this information. It looks like I'll die this cycle anyways, unless quite a few of you change your minds.

Well, I suppose that makes a decent amount of sense, given how we couldn't figure out how Autonomy could have cleared you in another way.

The big question then becomes whether this information clears you or not. You took Autonomy on N0, but that isn't really proof one way or another, as a lot of people suggested that the elims might take from a shard on the first night instead of converting, and I can see the wisdom in doing both converting or syphoning. You could even be the N0 convert of one of the factions, as conversions happen before shards get taken. So, though the odds don't favor it, there's no reason here for you to not be an elim.

Now, let's look at your actions. Assuming you're not Hoid (who has a charge of autonomy's investiture), only the N1 action is unaccounted for. We know that you used the remainder to travel, place aspects and block Pyro (that was you, right?). Placing aspects would be in line with either elim faction's goal. Blocking Pyro could also fall into that category if you suspected he was part of the other faction, so still NAI. The one unaccounted for action even leaves open the possibility of you being Hoid or Khriss, as it gives you a window for a conversion.

Lastly, there's the Shard you're holding to consider. I wouldn't rate Autonomy's investiture as particularly important in the early game for either faction, but the shard itself is very useful to them. It allows for monitoring of all the world-docs, and either extra votes or role-blocks. That's not to say that those aren't useful to villagers, I consider the utility of this Shard to be about equal for Elims and villagers.

So yeah, TL;DR this doesn't really prove anything.

HH, would you tell us your N1 action? And can you tell me whether you where intentionally going for a shardic win-con or not?

Edited March 25, 2018 by randuir

[Magestar]

Huh.

That's interesting.

I'm gonna keep my vote on Straw for now, although I'll consider moving it to HH at cycle's end.

[Stick.]

1 hour ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

*THUNDERCLAP*

IT IS I!

No use in keeping it a secret now. Do what you will with this information. It looks like I'll die this cycle anyways, unless quite a few of you change your minds.

So you cleared yourself?  How does that work

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Randuir. 

2 hours ago, randuir said:

HH, would you tell us your N1 action?

The only thing village!HH could have done on N1 is roleblock a player on Nalthis. If nobody else was there, he probably didn't do anything.

[Arinian]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

So you cleared yourself?  How does that work

Foolish Stick! Now he SHINES with innocence how can't you see it?

[DeTess]

9 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

The only thing village!HH could have done on N1 is roleblock a player on Nalthis. If nobody else was there, he probably didn't do anything.

That's probably true. I don't suppose anyone visited Nalthis that day?

Also, both faction conversions have to target someone on the same world, so it's not very likely that HH is either Khriss or Hoid, because if they are, they probably wouldn't have had a good chance for any conversions yet, and I don't think making aspects would be prioritized over converting.

[Fifth Scholar]

I like the way this lynch discussion has been going. We now have 4(!) claimed Shards, leaving only 6 as unknowns. Overall, this isn’t terrible. However, I’d like to lynch somebody today. As @randuir points out, the chances of Hoid!HH or Khriss!HH are very low, and the chance of him being a N0 convert are similarly slim. So I’d actually like to retract from Hemalurgic Headshot. While ordinarily his role wouldn’t clear him, the way he’s used his actions signifies, to me at least, that he is an unlikely Elim.

So who else to lynch? I’m thinking Straw. He’s the most suspicious of our claimed Vessels, and is also the one we know the least about. There’s ample room in his action schedule to have been converted by either faction, or to be Hoid/Khriss himself. And his choice of Shard, and willingness to claim earlier when he was in no significant danger, struck me as somewhat off. 

Finally, I’d like to propose that whether we lynch HH or Straw, we do it with the entire village, so it’s harder for the Elims to track where the Shard ends up. So if the village swings to Straw, we should do it with everything we have.

[DeTess]

6 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

So who else to lynch? I’m thinking Straw. He’s the most suspicious of our claimed Vessels, and is also the one we know the least about. There’s ample room in his action schedule to have been converted by either faction, or to be Hoid/Khriss himself. And his choice of Shard, and willingness to claim earlier when he was in no significant danger, struck me as somewhat off. 

When he revealed, he had 4 votes on him, with HH and drought having about 2, if I didn't miscount, so I'd say he was very much in danger. I agree that he definitely could be Hoid or Khriss from an action-economy standpoint, but that doesn't really prove anything. What did you mean by saying that he was the one we know the least about though?

[Fifth Scholar]

It was early in the cycle, with 2 days to go. Even leading in the lynch by 2 that early doesn’t matter much, because lynch pressure can shift very easily. Claiming that early seemed like a preliminary attempt to gain trust.

We know the least about him because all the other Shards have nearly iron-hard claims to back them up. Pyro is clearly Survival. You could be Ruin, but it’s highly unlikely you’d go for Investiture over a kill or planet destruction. (Plus you seem fairly village.) HH claimed Autonomy and we can track his every action, and his story matches up, especially if @TheYoungPyromancer can get on to strengthen his claim. Straw? All we have is Mage’s claim he was Invested in, and that could have been done by an Elim teammate holding Preservation. It’s also much harder to analyze his motives and track his actions.

Vote count:

HH(4): El 1, Stick 1, Stick 3, Fifth 1, Jondesu 1, Straw 1, Arinian 1, Eternum 1

Straw(7): Pyro 1, Mage 1, HH 1, Stick 2, Fifth 2, Megasif 2, Rand 2, Eternum 2, HH 3

Drought(0): Rand 1, Megasif 1

Arinian(0): HH 2

Jondesu(1): Drake 1

Randuir(0): DoS 1

Livinglegend(1?): Bard 1? (Your vote is in quote boxes, you may want to state it more clearly so it’ll count)

Edited March 25, 2018 by Fifth Scholar

[Megasif]

Okay let's do this. Drought doesn't seem to be going anywhere. Actually feels like a possible elim. But for now...

Straw

[DeTess]

9 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

It was early in the cycle, with 2 days to go. Even leading in the lynch by 2 that early doesn’t matter much, because lynch pressure can shift very easily. Claiming that early seemed like a preliminary attempt to gain trust.

He gained those votes pretty quickly though. If he hadn't claimed, more might have piled up after that. It was also already in the 2nd day of the cycle, which in a normal length cycle meant it was closer to the end. I guess I do see the point you're trying to make, though.

Quote

We know the least about him because all the other Shards have nearly iron-hard claims to back them up. Pyro is clearly Survival. You could be Ruin, but it’s highly unlikely you’d go for Investiture over a kill or planet destruction. (Plus you seem fairly village.) HH claimed Autonomy and we can track his every action, and his story matches up, especially if @TheYoungPyromancer can get on to strengthen his claim. Straw? All we have is Mage’s claim he was Invested in, and that could have been done by an Elim teammate holding Preservation. It’s also much harder to analyze his motives and track his actions.

I'd like to think of myself as a bit more mysterious than that, but fair enough . 

drought, Straw. The Drought lynch isn't really going anywhere yet, and Drought hasn't responded yet either. I suppose between Straw and HH, Straw is the one more likely to be evil at the moment.

Edited March 25, 2018 by randuir

[Arinian]

30 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I like the way this lynch discussion has been going. We now have 4(!) claimed Shards, leaving only 6 as unknowns. Overall, this isn’t terrible. However, I’d like to lynch somebody today. As @randuir points out, the chances of Hoid!HH or Khriss!HH are very low, and the chance of him being a N0 convert are similarly slim. So I’d actually like to retract from Hemalurgic Headshot. While ordinarily his role wouldn’t clear him, the way he’s used his actions signifies, to me at least, that he is an unlikely Elim.

Hmm... right. I didn't thought about that from side of action economy, probably it little bit clears HH in my eyes. Problem that we going in hard guess zone what would do Khriss\Hoid do they really want to convert early? If I was Hoid\Khriss I probably wouldn't converted. Hmm... need to think.

[Eternum]

I'll vote for Straw. I've expressed my suspicion of them earlier, so I'm fine with killing them. I'd like my theory to be confirmed or proven wrong, either one.

Edited March 25, 2018 by Eternum

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

It might also help to know that I still have the village win-con, despite having the Shard for essentially the entire game. Arinian. Straw.

[DeTess]

2 minutes ago, Arinian said:

Hmm... right. I didn't thought about that from side of action economy, probably it little bit clears HH in my eyes. Problem that we going in hard guess zone what would do Khriss\Hoid do they really want to convert early? If I was Hoid\Khriss I probably wouldn't converted. Hmm... need to think.

If I was either of them, I'd have converted one person N0, and kept the other conversion for later. If you don't convert at all you run the risk of losing the game to a single lucky lynch or kill. Converting N0 also means that there's less of a chance of the person suddenly showing a change in behavior. I mentioned before that I can understand wanting to try for a Shard first, but I don't think delaying getting a first co-conspirator for more than a cycle is worth the risk.

[Arinian]

Just now, randuir said:

If I was either of them, I'd have converted one person N0, and kept the other conversion for later. If you don't convert at all you run the risk of losing the game to a single lucky lynch or kill. Converting N0 also means that there's less of a chance of the person suddenly showing a change in behavior. I mentioned before that I can understand wanting to try for a Shard first, but I don't think delaying getting a first co-conspirator for more than a cycle is worth the risk.

I agree with you, but you not counting that people not always playing optimal but instead playing as they prefer. Probably Fifth right, will retract my vote for now from HH, but then I'm not feeling like I suspecting Straw enough.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

43 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Finally, I’d like to propose that whether we lynch HH or Straw, we do it with the entire village, so it’s harder for the Elims to track where the Shard ends up.

Quote

If a Vessel is killed, the Shard passes to the player they invested in during the most recent Day Cycle. If they did not invest in the most recent Day Cycle, or if their Shard cannot invest in another player, then the Shard passes to a random non-Vessel player.

The identity of the players who lynch a Shard has no effect on where the Shard ends up. if Autonomy!HH is lynched, his Shard will pass to a random non-Vessel player. If Preservation!Straw is lynched, his Shard will pass to Magestar.

New Vote Tally(condensed):

Straw(7-10): Pyromancer, Magestar, Fifth Scholar, Megasif, Randuir, Eternum, HH, (Sand Lord), (Patji), (Anonymous)
HH(4): Elbereth, _Stick_, Jondesu, Straw
livinglegend(1): YoungBard
Jondesu(1): Drake
 

 

[The Young Pyromancer]

Yeah.  He is Autonomy.  Dang.  I might have gotten you to give me the shard...

Any responses to my Elim!Odium analysis?

Edited March 25, 2018 by TheYoungPyromancer

[Straw]

My action schedule:

N0: Get Preservation’s Investiture.

D1: Nothing.

N1: Use Preservation’s Investiture. Get more Preservation Investiture. (I got Preservation this night.)

D2: Invest in Magestar.

N3: Use my Shardic ability on Joe.

D3: Worldhop to Scadrial.

[DeTess]

37 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Any responses to my Elim!Odium analysis?

It seems readonable, but it ignores the possibillity that Odium does not have the win-con we think he does (shatter shards). As I don't think we know who holds odium, or have much in the way of leads, I'm not sure how useful the elim!Odium suspicion is.

Edit: though if we do figure out who odium is later, it's useful info. Apologies if I sounded dismisdive of your work here. That was unintentional.

@Straw, why'd you pick Joe to protect last night?

Edited March 25, 2018 by randuir

[Straw]

I picked a random person.

[Stick.]

I think I'm having doubts about this Straw lynch. I'll say more later. Right now, I'm engrossed in watching this cricket game.