Long Game 39: Blood Money

[Arrae]

Is it possible that the elim attack hit someone with a double life or was protected?

[little wilson]

Would've been in the writeup. The person attacked probably wouldn't have been mentioned, but I'm certain the writeup would indicate that a deflected attack had taken place.

Another point in favor of Jondesu being evil is this:

19 hours ago, Jondesu said:

It’s possible the converts have useful abilities and they decided to forgo the kill for some reason? Maybe they have a Seeker or two and wanted to find the best roles to convert.

Probably not, though. Who was inactive over the night cycle that had been active?

I rather think that's a tongue-in-cheek confession. They didn't kill because they were doing other things.

[Araris Valerian]

Okay, so I'm going to assume that we have 3 conversions, and that each convert was active at least up to the point where they were converted. That means that there are a lot of options for the C1 conversion, but I doubt that PK or Frozen Mint were converted that cycle, since they drew some decent attention to themselves by lynching Aman. I also doubt that PK is the Seer for the same reason, which makes me trust Wilson a bit more about PK having been scanned.

Rae's immediate attack of Mint seems forced to me. I think that from the POV of an elim, whether or not we have a D1 lynch is relatively unimportant most of the time, so it doesn't make sense for the lonely Seer to risk drawing attention to themselves that early.

PK mentions that Jondesu didn't want a C1 lynch, but had an opportunity to tie and didn't. This fits with my idea of an elim that doesn't care to draw attention to themselves while still trying to participate in discussion.

PK could have been the N2 conversion though.

I don't like how @Straw has been playing, but that isn't really alignment indicative for him. Maybe a Coinshot could deal with him so we don't burn a lynch?

So Jondesu, Rae, and PK are my top 3 suspicions right now, in that order. If they were on a team I would guess Jon is the Seer, Rae the N1 convert, and PK the N2 convert. I'm not sure who was converted last night, but that's to be expected. I also somewhat agree with DA's vote on Squeeves. However, all that stuff has been brought up already, and we can come back to it later. I'm more concerned that the Seer has gone really inactive in the thread and is relying on active converted players to carry the team. On that note, @DarianHammersmith I think you are the Seer since you have given us nothing to read you on. By not posting suspicions, however flaky they may be, you have flown under the radar and put yourself in a very safe place. So, convince me that you are not the Seer. Who would be a better lynch option than you, Darian?

 

 

[Wyrmhero]

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

Would've been in the writeup. The person attacked probably wouldn't have been mentioned, but I'm certain the writeup would indicate that a deflected attack had taken place.

I realise the rules in the main thread are slightly ambiguous about this, but failed attacks are not mentioned in the writeup in this game. Only the Thug, Lurcher, or Seer and their attacker would be aware it had taken place at all.

The reason for this is primarily to allow ambiguity on Nights like the previous one where no deaths have occurred - Were there failed kills, or did no-one try to kill in the first place?

Edited October 19, 2017 by Wyrmhero

[Jondesu]

Wilson, I’m not even going to argue on that. I stated why I felt you were acting more like I expected you to as an Elim, partially from my own observation, and partially from what other people have said about you in those games, and it should be pretty clearly honest and not an attempt to lynch a villager intentionally. 

Rae, as promised.

---

Quintus frowned slightly and sniffed. Was that smoke?

Indeed, the vent in the floor had begun issuing some smoke, smelling somewhat more pungent than usual. He didn’t know what might be causing it yet, but he figured it was best to clear out.

When he tried to open the door, however, the handle wouldn’t turn. Jammed from the outside? This wasn’t an accident. Someone either wanted him dead, or wanted him to think that.

Unhurriedly, he knelt down next to his bag and retrieved a small item from one of the pockets. Two types of metal were set in a small coin: nicrosil and cadmium. Neither were exceptionally valuable to most people, but since he’d gotten this from the right source, it contained something far more valuable than the metals it was made from.

Clasping it in his hand, he begun drawing in the stored breath inside, stopping his own breathing to avoid poisoning and giving him time to solve the problem.

He looked down into the vent. It appeared there was a small bundle of twigs and maybe some other items shoved just under the grating, and that was burning slowly. He grabbed his pitcher of water and poured it onto the embers, and soon the smoke stopped.

He reached down and pulled something from the the bundle. House Tekiel’s badge? Perhaps it was intended as a warning of some type, or the mark of an assassin, but it was far likelier that someone wanted him to think Tekiel wanted him dead. Or just wanted him to know they knew he would think that.

Belatedly, he realized he was running low on stored breath (it was notoriously difficult to store), and stopped tapping the medallion, beginning to breath normally again now that the room was clearing out. This bore investigation, whether it was related to the Skaa or not.

[Straw]

@Araris Valerian What issue do you have with the way I'm playing?

@Sony I just have a gut read on Arinian.

[DarianHammersmith]

@Araris Valerian

I am actually really sorry for my inactivity, it's been a hectic week and I haven't been able to dedicate much time to things I hadn't made commitments to way previously or been forced into by other people's damnation laziness! I should have posted something once I realised things were going to busy.

As for my idea for who might be an elim, my suggestion would be Striker, they've been acting quite suspiciously as far as I can tell but just inconspicuous enough to avoid people voting for them, with most people looking at Shqueeves instead. Not sure if deliberate or not but I feel if I vote on him now it won't get through.

Actually, what the hell, let's see what happens: Striker.

Darian brandished the knife with outwardly calm deliberation. With the constant murmurings resounding in his head he brought the blade down as it sank into the flesh of the onion. With careful chopping it was quickly diced.

Darian had been feeling an increasing itch just beneath the skin of his right hand ever since the killings and tortures began. His anger and frustration with his brothers' and sisters' continued failure to discover the skaa was infuriating. He knew it wasn't healthy to harbour fantasies of murder and violent relief but the paranoia was setting in.

The voices kept him in check. As they always did.

It was time to help drag a new victim before Waern and his sharp instruments.

Darian's eyes watered as the onion lay before him, decimated, waiting for the pot.

And now it's time for bed.

If something dramatic happens to me or generally, eg Striker is up for lynch or there is some sudden turn of events, could someone PM me or mention me so I'm more likely to see and respond please? That would be a great help

[Araris Valerian]

Darian, thanks for the reply. @Straw Maybe I'm remembering past games wrong, but frequently you have single line posts with a vote and little justification. You don't really give anyone anything to work with you. It would be easy to hide as an eliminator behind that little information, so I often find myself voting for you, since compared to the other players that aren't giving me anything to work with, you are posting, so I can justify lynching you. But because it is simply your playstyle to not justify yourself much, you inevitably get lynched and flip villager. So far this game you have given me that same impression, which makes me want to lynch you but also is pretty confident that you are village. However, since you have only been an elim 2 out of 27 games, I can't trust a village read of you, hence the request for a coinshot.

[Straw]

@Araris Valerian your only reason for wanting me to be dead is my playstyle? That seems like sort of an Eliminator-ish thing to do. Then again, in other games we've played together in, you have seemed to have a problem with my playstyle.

A small clarification: I tend to place my vote on someone near the start of the cycle, often with little justification. That is because I'm using that vote as an opportunity to see how the target of my vote responds, therefore adding valuable data to the game. Basically, think of my start of the cycle votes as poke votes.

Edited October 20, 2017 by Straw

[Frozen Mint]

10 hours ago, little wilson said:

Let me reiterate: You have no idea how I play when I'm evil. You've seen me evil once, and I was not using the same playstyle then as I am now (you're free to go back and check to verify). I do find it interesting that you've completely forgotten the one game - the first game we played together - that most closely resembles my current playstyle though. Ironically, from another Wyrm game and a game with a conversion. Yeah, my suspicion of you is definitely warranted. Your suspicion makes literally no sense and is not backed up by reality or fact at all. 

Jondesu.

I really don't think Jon's suspicions of you indicate that he's an elim. I was getting a slight elim read on you too. Whether Jon's right or not is another matter, but I don't think his vote on you is suspicious at all.

7 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

By not posting suspicions, however flaky they may be, you have flown under the radar and put yourself in a very safe place. So, convince me that you are not the Seer. Who would be a better lynch option than you, Darian?

I know you've already removed your vote and I don't want to beat a dead horse, but I wanted to bring this up in case inactivity comes up again later in the game. I'd say that inactivity is NAI for new players.

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

 @Straw Maybe I'm remembering past games wrong, but frequently you have single line posts with a vote and little justification. You don't really give anyone anything to work with you. It would be easy to hide as an eliminator behind that little information, so I often find myself voting for you, since compared to the other players that aren't giving me anything to work with, you are posting, so I can justify lynching you. But because it is simply your playstyle to not justify yourself much, you inevitably get lynched and flip villager. So far this game you have given me that same impression, which makes me want to lynch you but also is pretty confident that you are village. However, since you have only been an elim 2 out of 27 games, I can't trust a village read of you, hence the request for a coinshot.

I really don't want to kill Straw for the reasons you mention. And to be honest, I kind of want to see how keeping him alive plays out for once. I understand the worry with his playstyle but there probably is some rhyme and rhythm to it, if observed for long enough and well enough. Also killing a player for their playstyle kind of rubs me the wrong way, and it seems to happen all the time with Straw. 

 

I'm currently going through the older cycles to evaluate and re-evaluate my suspicions and will hopefully have something more substantial by tomorrow.

[Araris Valerian]

That's why I said I don't want to lynch Straw. His playstyle is NAI. But my logic is, if everyone did this, what would happen? I mean, usually you can get rid of a poke vote just by posting. The pressure of a poke vote is really fake, because it carries no threat of a lynch; there is no argument to convince others to join in the vote. There is also no conviction behind it, since as an elim, I could poke vote my partner without fear of leading to their lynch.

As far as my vote on Darian, I was taking a page from the Assuredness Movement, while also avoiding being hypocritical about poke votes (although I think what I posted is what is somewhat implied by a lot of poke votes). While inactivity is NAI for new players, it is also definitely a better winning strategy for eliminators than villagers. I don't think new players understand that by withholding their opinions, or withholding from making any opinions at all, they are siding with the eliminators regardless of their actual alignment. Take this cycle for example. Out of 21 living players, 14 posted, and of those Darian, Doc, and Striker probably only posted because they were pinged. So there are really only 11 active players. Now, consider that there will probably be 5 eliminators after this Night cycle (based off both the square root rule and the 20% rule). If they are all active, then the game is almost over, and that isn't even taking into consideration what roles they might have. Actually, a mislynch this cycle, and a kill+conversion during the Night puts the active players at a 4-5 deficit. So I think my errorgance is somewhat justified given that I would prefer not to lose this game 5 cycles in.

[Paranoid King]

I've been taking some tests recently and really don't feel like doing much analysis, but I'm popping in anyways so I don't fall too far behind.

Some of Wilson's recent posts sound elim-y, specifically the one where she pointed out all the times she was village. In context though, her response is pretty justified. She's not pointing out that she's usually village, she's saying that Jon doesn't have a lot of data to support his accusations.

On 10/18/2017 at 2:24 PM, Arinian said:

Amm... no kill? I'm disappointed, Rae did you forgot to send kill? 

12 hours ago, Arinian said:

I still voting for PK, for reasons which I stated. I almost sure that I'm wrong but I don't have other guesses for elims.

Hmm. This doesn't add up. "AMM" stands for American Metal Market. Could this be a code? After all, it's pretty difficult to confuse the 'm' and 'w' keys, given that they're on opposite sides of the keyboard!

Anyways, conspiracy theories aside, it looks like you're poking Rae to get a response from her. In my experience, this is usually done because you're suspicious of that person. AKA you have a guess that they might be an eliminator.

I honestly don't mind a good healthy vote every so often, but it looks like your intent is to "set and forget", which doesn't give people a lot of analysis to use for or against you. So, @Arinian, I'm just poking you find 3 people you think have a chance of being an eliminator. Doesn't have to be strong guesses. It just gives a bit of perspective about your thoughts.

On 10/18/2017 at 10:24 PM, Doc12 said:

So... Rae just contacted me on facebook to ask me why I haven't been on. I'm ashamed to admit it, but...I completely forgot about this game. 

I'm sorry. 

The past few days have been insanely busy for me, and midterms are still coming up. 

I am very sorry for signing up for this game and becoming inactive. I was asked to by a friend, but I should have said no then. 

So. I really can't promise a post in the next two days, as I have two exams on Friday, so I'll be further inactive. If anyone with a kill is willing to clean up an inactive, I'll be willing to die to remove deadweight from this game. 

I'm sorry, and if I am still alive by next week, I'll try my best to return to this game. 

I feel for you, Doc. Just make sure you ask for a summary of what's happened when you come back. Otherwise you'll have to go through pages of analysis and that makes it kinda hard to get back into the game.

@Darkness_, your vote on shqueeves is based on that he's inactive on a night with no kill. But I'd think that, were he evil, he'd have enough converted allies to make the kill for him. Especially if they noticed that he was inactive that cycle. I think it's more likely that the kill was blocked somehow.

Anyways, my vote'll go on @Orlok. (Callout function's acting up again.) For all his complaints about not going inactive if he were to be turned into an eliminator, I think he'd go inactive if he were turned into an eliminator. And plus, it'd be interesting to see if he was turned. Might help me see if the seer based his conversions off of the data I provided C1. If he was turned, I can start looking for other active people I ruled out of my list.

Edit: @Orlok Tsubodai. There we go.

Edited October 20, 2017 by Paranoid King

[Arrae]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

As far as my vote on Darian, I was taking a page from the Assuredness Movement, while also avoiding being hypocritical about poke votes (although I think what I posted is what is somewhat implied by a lot of poke votes). While inactivity is NAI for new players, it is also definitely a better winning strategy for eliminators than villagers. I don't think new players understand that by withholding their opinions, or withholding from making any opinions at all, they are siding with the eliminators regardless of their actual alignment. Take this cycle for example. Out of 21 living players, 14 posted, and of those Darian, Doc, and Striker probably only posted because they were pinged. So there are really only 11 active players. Now, consider that there will probably be 5 eliminators after this Night cycle (based off both the square root rule and the 20% rule). If they are all active, then the game is almost over, and that isn't even taking into consideration what roles they might have. Actually, a mislynch this cycle, and a kill+conversion during the Night puts the active players at a 4-5 deficit. So I think my errorgance is somewhat justified given that I would prefer not to lose this game 5 cycles in.

What's the Assuredness Movement?

Sorry I haven't been very active today, I had a school-hosted panel about potential careers. Tomorrow, I'll start looking at more players, probably from the bottom of the playerlist up, unless I find someone more interesting to look at first.

I think lynching people for a specific, repeated playstyle shouldn't be done, but we definitely should prod somebody if we find that person's playstyle to be repeatedly unhelpful. @Straw, if you want to poke vote people at the beginning of the cycle, maybe you could provide more analysis at the end of the cycle, maybe of the response to your pokevote? One pokevote by itself doesn't seem particularly useful, and it's low commitment enough that you should have time to do some other things, like analysis.

[Darkness Ascendant]

Sorry, I've been out of everything and for some reason thought only the Seer could put in the elim kills. >.< Shqueeves I guess.

[Straw]

I'll try to get some analysis up in ~10 hours.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

7 hours ago, Paranoid King said:

I've been taking some tests recently and really don't feel like doing much analysis, but I'm popping in anyways so I don't fall too far behind.

Some of Wilson's recent posts sound elim-y, specifically the one where she pointed out all the times she was village. In context though, her response is pretty justified. She's not pointing out that she's usually village, she's saying that Jon doesn't have a lot of data to support his accusations.

Hmm. This doesn't add up. "AMM" stands for American Metal Market. Could this be a code? After all, it's pretty difficult to confuse the 'm' and 'w' keys, given that they're on opposite sides of the keyboard!

Anyways, conspiracy theories aside, it looks like you're poking Rae to get a response from her. In my experience, this is usually done because you're suspicious of that person. AKA you have a guess that they might be an eliminator.

I honestly don't mind a good healthy vote every so often, but it looks like your intent is to "set and forget", which doesn't give people a lot of analysis to use for or against you. So, @Arinian, I'm just poking you find 3 people you think have a chance of being an eliminator. Doesn't have to be strong guesses. It just gives a bit of perspective about your thoughts.

I feel for you, Doc. Just make sure you ask for a summary of what's happened when you come back. Otherwise you'll have to go through pages of analysis and that makes it kinda hard to get back into the game.

@Darkness_, your vote on shqueeves is based on that he's inactive on a night with no kill. But I'd think that, were he evil, he'd have enough converted allies to make the kill for him. Especially if they noticed that he was inactive that cycle. I think it's more likely that the kill was blocked somehow.

Anyways, my vote'll go on @Orlok. (Callout function's acting up again.) For all his complaints about not going inactive if he were to be turned into an eliminator, I think he'd go inactive if he were turned into an eliminator. And plus, it'd be interesting to see if he was turned. Might help me see if the seer based his conversions off of the data I provided C1. If he was turned, I can start looking for other active people I ruled out of my list.

Edit: @Orlok Tsubodai. There we go.

@Paranoid King, what possible evidence do you have for your belief? Precedent stands entirely opposed, and you’re choosing to ignore it for a reason you have not set out. What do you think you know that means you’re choosing to disregard every other time I’ve been evil? El has been here this week, which has occupied a great deal of my time. I will make SE a priority again from Sunday, after she departs.

[Araris Valerian]

The Assuredness Movement comes from the Way of Kings, it's a rhetorical strategy of severely overstating all of your arguments, and it really frustrates Shallan.

[Arrae]

Off the top of my head, I'm a little suspicious of the people voting on Wilson, Jondesu and Mint (maybe more, if I've missed someone). I'm more suspicious of Jondesu because Mint PMed me saying she was suspicious of Wilson around last cycle, so it seems more organic.

[Paranoid King]

Wrote a post and then my power went out. Rrgh.

5 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Paranoid King, what possible evidence do you have for your belief? Precedent stands entirely opposed, and you’re choosing to ignore it for a reason you have not set out. What do you think you know that means you’re choosing to disregard every other time I’ve been evil? El has been here this week, which has occupied a great deal of my time. I will make SE a priority again from Sunday, after she departs.

I'm hoping the seer is choosing people from my list that I considered, then discarded. If they are, even subconsciously, that makes my job a lot easier. So of the people I looked at on my list, I didn't include Darian, Steeldancer, Striker, Arraenae, or Orlok

This is Darian's first game. He has 4 posts, total. I wasn't gonna lynch him just to find out if other people are evil.

Steeldancer is dead

Striker was my other option. He's pretty inactive. His excuse is that band is taking up a lot of his time. He has been posting suspicions though, so I feel pretty good about him.

Arraenae's been under a lot of suspicion. However, she has also been active, and has been putting a lot of effort into the game. I'd rather lynch someone inactive who can give us info.

Orlok posted a lot on the first day, trying to encourage discussion. Day 2 he was taking care of a friend IRL. He also protests being the obvious convert. He thinks steeldancer was misguided, but not evil. D3 he says he's burnt out from the QF and has El keeping him company. He also says that in previous games, he was active when he was evil. He votes on Sart for thinking he'd change his playstyle upon becoming evil.

That is a pretty drastic shift from D1 on, and I'm not denying that real life things are happening to take away your attention. But you pop up within an hour or two if someone mentions you, while staying inactive otherwise. That implies someone who thinks a lot about the game, but isn't worried about providing analysis. You're quick to vote on Sart for thinking your playstyle might change, but allow Steeldancer to pass for thinking you're an obvious convert. You wouldn't want to vote on someone for something important because that would draw attention to that discussion. You are busy with RL things, so changing your playstyle isn't the problem. You don't mind voting on Sart for that. You don't want to draw attention to being an obvious convert though, so you protest people voting on Steeldancer, saying it was an honest mistake.

If you are innocent, voting on you does free up some time for you to deal with RL issues, and you have signed up for the MR, so I don't feel guilty about voting for you. My main problem with your inactivity is how you're inactive about things not pertaining to you, but are quite active when someone votes on you. Being changed from a villager to an elim does give you a lot of new info, and if you're falling behind anyways, it's a lot to keep track of. If someone votes for you though, you know all about yourself, so you can easily rebuff them. I don't think that in all the previous games you cited you were dealing with a lot of RL things.

Overall, you might be falling behind in this game, but you're signed up for the MR, so if we lynch you, you get a bit more free time. If you're evil, we get more info. If you're good, you were relatively inactive. It just seems like a good choice.

[Arrae]

Armina crouched in the vent, trying to get a closer look at Waern's desk again. He'd had a letter from Luthadel last time, but Armina had escaped before she could read it.

Was that the letter, on his desk? It bore the stamp of the Luthadel Steel Ministry at the end.

Dear Prelan Waern, the top line said. The body text below was smaller, harder to read. Armina pressed her face up against the vent. She still couldn't read it, but maybe she could guess at some of the phrases.

...you are well?...be grateful that we are undertaking...your mess, Waern...only relocated...new lead. Hopefully your current issue...appreciate the importance...ensuring no half-skaa children live. Most sincerely...Prelan Rhine of Luthadel.

Armina gaped at the letter. Was it implying what she thought she did? Once, she'd thought that Waern was untouchable, but this...this changed everything.

[Seonid]

Here's a friendly vote tally -

Arinian (1): Straw

Jondesu (3): Wilson, StrikerEZ, Arraenae

Paranoid King (1): Arinian

StrikerEZ (1): Darian Hammersmith

Orlok (2): PK, Seonid

 

As might be evident, I'm not exceptionally convinced by Orlok's defenses. Frankly, the "I never act this way when I'm an eliminator" defense is overused, especially by veteran players. I think we as players put far too much stock in meta-analysis and not enough in actually watching the way the game is actually going. Compounded with the fact that we are experiencing a drought of activity - a pattern that has held true over the past half dozen games or so - and I think it shouldn't be a surprise that town players in general haven't actually found an Eliminator by analysis in quite some time.

Anyways, I got sidetracked - and I'm as guilty as the rest of us on these counts. But back to my point. Orlok gets challenged by PK, and defends himself - not on what he's done this game, but on what he's done in past games. But even a brief cursory analysis indicates that - if that logic is widely accepted - then an excellent way to hide Eliminator play is to deliberately deviate from past Eliminator behavior. Then you can say "See, this is how I acted when I was evil, and so I can't be evil this game because I'm not acting that way." And so the Eliminator team skates to victory on the backs of flawed meta-play. To paraphrase some halfway-decent writer. "Methinks thou dost protest too much."

And yes, I realize that Wilson could be doing this too. But at least she specified her playstyle at the beginning of the game, before roles/alignments had been assigned. But her protestations are growing increasingly close to that line for me as well.

I'll admit that I'm a little worried about the course of this game - and the parallels it has with a number of other games in the recent past. Namely - not a lot of village involvement, tepid discussion, almost no analysis, poor accusations followed by even worse defenses, and all indications pointing to an easy Eliminator win. With almost no effort required on their part, I might add.

There's not a lot of time left in the day to change that for this cycle. And Night cycles are always hard to generate discussion in due to the lack of votes to apply pressure with. But I think we ought to try. And next day cycle, we need to step things up a notch. I'll commit to trying to comprehensively analyze at least 5 active players tonight and tomorrow. Who's willing to do that with me? The only way to promote activity in the village is to be active. Nothing else will do.

Edited October 20, 2017 by Seonid
Fixed vote tally

[Araris Valerian]

I personally think that Orlok's activity is NAI, as it is due to real life stuff. However, he has committed to coming back, unlike other inactives. I don't think anyone has really brought a valid accusation against Orlok that isn't answered by his blue text.

As I mentioned earlier, Jondesu is at the top of my suspicion list, and I'd prefer that he not cause a tie by voting on Orlok.

[Arinian]

14 hours ago, Paranoid King said:

I honestly don't mind a good healthy vote every so often, but it looks like your intent is to "set and forget", which doesn't give people a lot of analysis to use for or against you. So, @Arinian, I'm just poking you find 3 people you think have a chance of being an eliminator. Doesn't have to be strong guesses. It just gives a bit of perspective about your thoughts.

I already earlier stated of whom I suspicious. It's you and Rae, cause your interactions somewhat off to me... probably looked as distancing between two elims.

Also as I said earlier I'm suspicious of Wilson  too, based on tone of her posts which looked similar to her elim behavior, of course I'm as Jon played only 1 game with her where she was elim, so I can easily be wrong about her. 

Still little bit suspicious of Mint... but honestly I just didn't paid much attention to her posts on previous cycle.

[Paranoid King]

Hmm. Just got a PM from Orlok telling me I was tunneling on him. @Seonid, did you get one too?

[Seonid]

Just now, Paranoid King said:

Hmm. Just got a PM from Orlok telling me I was tunneling on him. @Seonid, did you get one too?

Nope. Probably didn't notice my vote.