Arraenae Posted October 17, 2017 Posted October 17, 2017 Okay, I'm not sure if this is even worth mentioning, but I have a tinfoil of a tionfoil that the Seeker could be PK's convert claiming to have scanned PK. It makes sense for a real Seeker to have scanned him, but the timing of this announcement is rather convenient for PK. >.>
little wilson she/her Posted October 17, 2017 Posted October 17, 2017 I made this announcement of my own volition, because I'd been informed of the results via PM earlier. I didn't announce it earlier because not only was there not any real reason to (PK only had one vote on him) but announcing it immediately would make it easier to find my contact. The second vote on PK with so few votes on anyone else is what got me to announce it now. Would you rather I'd waited until PK was lynched? Would that have been better? I'm of the opinion that the more information people have, the better it is, and I felt it would be best to let the people voting on him know. You seem rather thirsty for PK's blood, Rae. You sure there's not a more nefarious reason for that? Because I'm really starting to think you might be evil.
Darkness Ascendant he/him Posted October 17, 2017 Posted October 17, 2017 (edited) Well I see DA has made a right mess of the way he plays. 2 hours ago, little wilson said: You seem rather thirsty for PK's blood, Rae. You sure there's not a more nefarious reason for that? Because I'm really starting to think you might be evil. I agree with you here Wilson, and Rae's defence of @Sart just makes me more suspicious. Edited October 17, 2017 by Darkness_
Wyrmhero he/him Posted October 17, 2017 Author Posted October 17, 2017 6 hours ago, Sart said: That would be good to get clarification on. @Wyrmhero does the Seeker scan alignment? It would be nice, but conversion makes even those results less powerful. Still, that would let us get a guaranteed eliminator. People should always read the rules when signing up for a game, even if they think the rules are simple and straightforward or as 'normal'. Seekers do not scan alignment in this game - What would they be scanning for to tell whether someone has taken a bribe or not? Seekers can only tell what Role someone has, including the Seer if they have not used all their atium up.
Lemonelon Posted October 17, 2017 Posted October 17, 2017 PK I'm voting for you because you voted for me. Nothing more, nothing less.
Elbereth she/her Posted October 17, 2017 Posted October 17, 2017 (edited) Hi! I’m back! Apologies for taking so long. >> I had two midterms, an essay, family, and a transatlantic plane flight, and then yesterday I didn’t have internet (blame Orlok >>). But I exist again, and ought to be more active for the next week at least. A few comments from previous cycles: Seonid: Quote While this is true - we also sacrifice a lot - the reads and suspicion we gain off of D1 interactions influence our future reads and suspicions. Often, we gain a lot of useful information - who is defending who, who seems to be subtly casting suspicion on someone else, who votes where and for what reasons - including what reasons seem to be superficial excuses for just getting a lynch - and so on. The problem in this case is this: almost everything we gain will be incorrect. Now, it is possible that we can successfully filter that out - but I find it unlikely. Even if we manage to consciously try to filter things out, D1 interactions often have a subtle influence on our future reads for long into the game. And it's the unconscious bits that are at issue here - they are hard to correct for. So yes, we could conceivably get a baseline for the game, but at the cost of significantly dropping the signal to noise ratio on every other read we are trying to take. True, and that does make sense. I’m not sure I agree that it’s less useful than establishing a baseline at all, but I certainly understand your point. Drought: Quote The fact of the matter is, that at this moment, there is a ridiculously low chance of hitting the one person in the game that it matters that we, as the village, hits. If someone were to have seemed overly suspicious to me then I would have gladly lynched them, but I had no good reason to go after anyone specifically. So essentially we have next to no chance of progressing our own win con, less than in the average game, with no one that I specifically have standing out to me as being an Elim. Whereas the Elim’s always have a good way to progress their own win con in a game; by putting out a kill. For the elims to be nice they are essentially guaranteed to have a setback directly towards their own win con, whereas as the village we are essentially guaranteed to help the elims, especially in this game. Sure. Which is fairly valid for this game, though less so in general (“progressing our own win con” shouldn’t be restricted only to lynching or killing eliminators, because without discussion and even mislynches there is no possibility of lynching eliminators at all). Drought: Quote Elbereth You haven't been all that active, so I'll be starting a poke vote at least. Your only post was a long post, talking about a few different things. You mainly responded to other people's things. But I would like to see you be more active in this game, so...yeah. I don't have many leads yet, but I have a few things forming. Later this cycle I'll probably post a bit more on it, if I can get anything solidified. Sorry. Back now, if that helps. Jondesu: Quote That said, the Seer killed off Steeldancer, meaning either they thought he was a threat, or he was a random choice (to be fair, I'd usually go for a completely random choice myself to avoid anyone being able to analyze my choices, but that doesn't mean the Seer did that). This is again mostly meta reasons, but I'd imagine a Seer who'd kill Steeldancer early would be interested in a player like Mira (Frozen Mint) as a convert, since those two started at similar times, so players who'd learned one of their playstyles would probably know both. Just so you know, Steeldancer’s first game was MR22. Mint’s was LG25 (simultaneous with MR16). You started playing closer in time to Flash than Mint did. Just saying. Rae: Quote Tangent aside, Sart contradicts himself in his post. He says that the Seer will tend to convert active players, so therefore we should...lynch inactive players? There's a disconnect here, unless Sart wants to force the Seer to convert active players through this. No. >> There’s not a disconnect. Sart was saying basically that we should lynch inactives because if the Seer is an inactive player, we’re highly unlikely to lynch them later in the game because we’ll be focused on more active players. (Partly because active players are easier to examine, partly because converts are likely to be active.) He was saying that therefore D1 we should lynch an inactive in order to have a better chance of catching the Seer overall. Does that make sense? Right. Beyond that, I agree that Sart’s been suspicious (particularly the post that’s been pointed out a couple times, and a bit this cycle as well), and I’d far prefer his lynch to someone we know (or at least it’s highly likely) is not the Seer. Sart. Edited October 17, 2017 by Elbereth
little wilson she/her Posted October 17, 2017 Posted October 17, 2017 Current theory: Rae is the Seer, Sart is the first convert, and Lemenelon is the second convert. 2
Sony Posted October 17, 2017 Posted October 17, 2017 Alright, sorry I haven't been on this cycle, and I won't be back before this cycle is over. So, I do have to agree with Wilson that Rae really wanted to lynch PK and to some extent Mint, which gives off a slight elim read to me. However, I am suspicious of Sart as well, mostly due to his weak attacks on Orlok, who hasn't really been here to defend himself (besides this cycle). Also, Jaina's panda doesn't like Sart. What other information do we need? I'm not voting this cycle since I won't be back in time to see what Sart and Rae have to say about this, and that wouldn't be fair.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted October 17, 2017 Posted October 17, 2017 Well, as I count it there is a 3-3 vote tie between PK and Sart, and since PK is presumably not the Seer, I'll withdraw from him and vote for Sart instead. @Lemonelon, that sort of vote isn't really helpful to anybody for a couple of reasons. It doesn't generate discussion, it is a vote on someone that has a lesser chance of being an elim than other players, and if everyone followed a similar philosophy then we we get stuck in a tie vote every cycle. 1
Seonid he/him Posted October 17, 2017 Posted October 17, 2017 53 minutes ago, little wilson said: Current theory: Rae is the Seer, Sart is the first convert, and Lemenelon is the second convert. I like the theory. But as every good scientist knows, a theory is only useful to the extent it corresponds with facts in the real world. Shall we make a test of it? Rae 1
little wilson she/her Posted October 17, 2017 Posted October 17, 2017 2 hours ago, Seonid said: I like the theory. But as every good scientist knows, a theory is only useful to the extent it corresponds with facts in the real world. Shall we make a test of it? Rae That's kind of what I'm doing with the Sart lynch. If he's evil, her consistent deflection from Sart to PK and village-reading Sart looks much worse and if there's a Coinshot, they could hit her and take away one of her atium beads. I'm more sure of Sart than I am of Rae. If I'm wrong about that, then Rae might not be evil. Maybe. If Sart is evil, Rae is almost certainly evil as well.
Arraenae Posted October 17, 2017 Posted October 17, 2017 Ugh, I had an idea that that tinfoil was stupid and I'd attract suspicion for it. Only realized that on the toilet this morning, unfortunately. Someone saying that they scanned PK doesn't necessarily mean that they scanned him just now, and he makes a lot of sense as a scan. Wilson, I was going to elim/flip flop NAI read Sart until his post this thread, if that means anything to you. Then he posted something really villagery, so it tipped the scales back toward village.
Arinian Posted October 17, 2017 Posted October 17, 2017 (edited) 13 hours ago, Arraenae said: Okay, I'm not sure if this is even worth mentioning, but I have a tinfoil of a tionfoil that the Seeker could be PK's convert claiming to have scanned PK. It makes sense for a real Seeker to have scanned him, but the timing of this announcement is rather convenient for PK. >.> 13 hours ago, little wilson said: I made this announcement of my own volition, because I'd been informed of the results via PM earlier. I didn't announce it earlier because not only was there not any real reason to (PK only had one vote on him) but announcing it immediately would make it easier to find my contact. The second vote on PK with so few votes on anyone else is what got me to announce it now. Would you rather I'd waited until PK was lynched? Would that have been better? I'm of the opinion that the more information people have, the better it is, and I felt it would be best to let the people voting on him know. You seem rather thirsty for PK's blood, Rae. You sure there's not a more nefarious reason for that? Because I'm really starting to think you might be evil. Hmm... so Wilson is Seeker or what? Or in contact with Seeker? Also can you explain on what your theory about Rae Seer based? My tinfoilest tinfoil theory is that Rae and PK tried to distance from each other on this cycle... atleast that how it looked for me, that's why I voted for PK to see how he or Rae will act. Also I don't know maybe it's me stupid but I can't see much difference between Sart's behavior on first turn and now, so I don't see on what is based your idea that he is convert... maybe I'm blind *shrug* Edited October 17, 2017 by Arinian
little wilson she/her Posted October 17, 2017 Posted October 17, 2017 20 minutes ago, Arraenae said: Ugh, I had an idea that that tinfoil was stupid and I'd attract suspicion for it. If it makes you feel any better, I'm not suspicious of you for just the tinfoil. My suspicion started shortly after your post about PK during the night. @Arinian was that question directed at me? I don't have much. It's predicated almost entirely on my suspicion of Sart. Last night, Rae PMed me asking for my thoughts on Sart's activity, and since I'd just been talking to a couple others about how Sart looked really evil for that post at the start of the night, I told her I was pretty convinced he'd been converted, and that I also thought PK might be the Seer. Rae did not respond, but later in the night, she posted in the thread about suspecting PK of being the Seer and then voted on him during the day and asked another question about him in a PM. To me, this reads as deflection. I'm suspicious of Sart, but I'm also suspicious of PK. If Rae and Sart are both evil, Rae would want to promote my PK suspicion to help her teammate survive for a little longer. So why is Rae the Seer in my theory? Well, I still think Sart was converted. Which means that if they are elim teammates, Rae can only be the Seer, since there were only a max of two elims at that point in time.
Arraenae Posted October 17, 2017 Posted October 17, 2017 @little wilson, I looked at PK first because when I asked why you voted on him, you said his post agreeing with Orlok made you super suspicious, so I decided to start with him. I could have waited until the Day to post it, but I don't have your reservations about posting at night and the thread was dead/OOG.
Sart he/him Posted October 17, 2017 Posted October 17, 2017 Well, I'm probably dead. Did Wilson not notice I said I was suspicious of Rae?
little wilson she/her Posted October 17, 2017 Posted October 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Sart said: Well, I'm probably dead. Did Wilson not notice I said I was suspicious of Rae? Yes, because eliminators have never claimed to be suspicious of teammates before. I'm sorry. Let me just remove my vote from you. >>
Droughtbringer Posted October 17, 2017 Posted October 17, 2017 6 hours ago, Elbereth said: Sorry. Back now, if that helps. Nice to have you back! 4 minutes ago, Sart said: Well, I'm probably dead. Did Wilson not notice I said I was suspicious of Rae? The way that you are pointing this out is slightly suspicious as well... you aren't pointing out anything new and useful, and are only saying "Hey look at me! I did something!" Trying to draw our attention towards one point that you have had going for you, while many more are against you.
Wyrmhero he/him Posted October 17, 2017 Author Posted October 17, 2017 Alea iacta est. No more PMs until the next Turn is up.
Wyrmhero he/him Posted October 17, 2017 Author Posted October 17, 2017 (edited) Night 3: Cast In Blood “Sir?” Someone shook him. He refused to budge, to acknowledge their existence. The darkness was cool, and quiet, and the wider world was not. “Sir, wake up.” He groaned and pushed the hand away, desperate for just another moment to recover from the lack of sleep last night. “Sir, we need you to be awake,” the voice said again, jolting him more harshly. He opened his eyes, ready to curse his awakener, and instead winced. The light was blinding, and Waern closed his eyes in futile protest. “What do you want?” he eventually said, forcing himself to keep his voice as calm as possible. “We’ve made a decision, sir,” Nickel said. “Variel and Straw are taking him to the chamber now.” “Oh, good.” Waern replied, wishing they’d just got on with it themselves. He hauled himself up, hands placed against the wall to steady himself. “Well… I suppose I’d better go and interrogate him… Who is it, anyway? Who do you think it is?” “Sart,” Cyfna said. “He’s been acting oddly lately. Could be something there.” “Could be,” Waern agreed. “And if it isn’t?” “At this point, sir, I think we’ve all accepted this is not going to be a clean victory,” Cyfna replied. “While some of us might be happier with this than others,” and at this, she spared a glare at Locke, “I don’t see any other way forward.” “No, that’s true,” Waern nodded. “Well, if Sart is a loyal servant of The Lord Ruler, then he should die happy, knowing that his death brings us one step closer to the truth.” He dusted his coat down and checked his belt for the dagger. Good, it was still there. He wasn’t going to leave it again, that was for certain. "The Final Empire was birthed in blood, and we must all be glad to give our own to let it continue." He rubbed the back of his neck, where it had gone stiff from how he was sitting. “Well, I suppose I’d better get to it,” he said. “Then I’m going to bed. And I don’t want to be disturbed tonight, you hear? Even if one of you is being murdered right outside my door and clawing the wood apart trying to get in, I’m not opening my bedroom door for anyone. I intend to sleep like the dead after this is done. Goodnight.” Sart was a Smoker! Sart (4): Locke (Orlok Tsubodai), Hadrian (Araris Valerian), Jaina (little wilson), Cyfna (Elbereth) Arranae (2): Sheon (Seonid), Sart Edguardo/Paranoid King (1): Alrin (Arinian), Pix (Lemonelon) Pix/Lemonelon (1): Edguardo/Paranoid King Night 3 has begun! It will end at 21:00 BST on Wednesday 18th. There is a Tineye alive, so PMs may be continue to be sent. Players Alrin (Arinian) Sheon, formerly of House Idris (Seonid) Locke, formerly of House Tekiel (Orlok Tsubodai) Eobard (Steeldancer) - Lurcher Straw (Straw) Quintus, worldhopper (Jondesu) Hadrian, formerly of House Penrod (Araris Valerian) John (Shqueeves) Variel, ambitious and young (StrikerEZ) Marsh, but not that Marsh (Darkness Ascendant) Pix (Lemonelon) Jaina, obsessed with pandas (littlewilson) Sart (Sart) - Smoker Cyfna (Elbereth) Edguardo 'The Great', long on plans but short on money (Paranoid King) A Joe in the Bush - Rioter Armina, of House Handler (Arranae) Sony Mira (frozen Mint) Rin (doc12) Gaskon Renaud, who may get around to procrastinating eventually (Amanuensis) - Obligator DarianHammersmith Droughtbringer Davus Nickel, formerly of House Izenry (Aonar Faileas) Quick Links: The Rules Day 1 Night 1 Day 2 Night 2 Day 3 Night 3 (you are here. You should go to bed) Day 4 Edited October 18, 2017 by Wyrmhero 4
Darkness Ascendant he/him Posted October 18, 2017 Posted October 18, 2017 Smokers generally come to a swift end. 7 hours ago, Arraenae said: Well. Yay, my read was right? No your read was inconsequential
Jondesu he/him Posted October 18, 2017 Posted October 18, 2017 6 hours ago, Darkness_ said: Smokers generally come to a swift end. I thought it was usually slow and drawn out. I can't say I knew Sart was innocent, but he wasn't my first choice. I hate to say it, but I'm growing increasingly suspicious of little wilson. She's been sounding more…maybe not aggressive exactly, but forceful and passionate, which is what I've seen when she's been an Elim. She does it sometimes as village too, so it's not a clear tip-off, but I'm very suspicious.
little wilson she/her Posted October 18, 2017 Posted October 18, 2017 You really haven't played enough games with me to know my village vs elim play. I've heard I have a tell, but it's certainly not aggression and the people who know the tell don't even play games anymore. But if you'd like to lynch me, you're quite free to try. I've never actually been lynched as a villager so this should be a new experience.
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