Long Game 39: Blood Money

[Droughtbringer]

@Elbereth Elbereth You haven't been all that active, so I'll be starting a poke vote at least.

Your only post was a long post, talking about a few different things. You mainly responded to other people's things. But I would like to see you be more active in this game, so...yeah.

I don't have many leads yet, but I have a few things forming. Later this cycle I'll probably post a bit more on it, if I can get anything solidified.

[Arrae]

@DroughtBringer, El said somewhere that she's going to be busy for a few days until she goes on break from school.

Edited October 13, 2017 by Arraenae
I can definitely spell. Yep. No issues whatsoever.

[Sart]

I know discussion tends to die out over the weekend, but this is ridiculous. We need to lynch someone if we want to actually win this game. Plus, our odds have significantly increased. In the interest of discussion, I will put a vote on Orlok. He was extremely active Day 1, which was great. He hasn't posted since, which isn't great. It's interesting to note that a lot of his posting was fueled by getting voted on, which is a telltale sign of an eliminator.

This last reason is meta-gaming, but it's something I need to point out. Out of all the players in this game, Wyrm specifically chose Orlok to close the cycle. Now, this could be because Orlok is moderator, but that doesn't sit right. If Wyrm needed a moderator to close the thread, he should have asked the impartial moderator to post that. Why then did he choose a random villager to close the thread? I'm guessing Wyrm messaged him on the Eliminator doc, and Orlok closed the thread for him. Again, this is meta-gaming, which isn't a strategy I'm fond of, and this is just my personal opinion. @Orlok Tsubodai Why did Wyrm ask you specifically to close the Day 1 thread?

Edited October 13, 2017 by Sart
Greened out vote

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@Sart, I haven't been active much for a few reasons. A good friend in my accommodation block has returned from his mother's funeral, and I've focused on keeping him company - something I hope no one here has an issue with. I've had a busy day lecture wise, and am now travelling.

Wyrm asked me to close the cycle because we talk on facebook relatively regularly, having got to know each other through Heirs. I'll be able to get actual thoughts up later tonight, I hope, but think this ought to allay any meta concerns you may have.

Regarding activity, I'd point you to most of the recent games I've played, Sart. Last cycle was not atypical of how I play. This cycle represents an aberration, but one that I think has entirely reasonable causes.

[Sart]

21 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Sart, I haven't been active much for a few reasons. A good friend in my accommodation block has returned from his mother's funeral, and I've focused on keeping him company - something I hope no one here has an issue with. I've had a busy day lecture wise, and am now travelling.

Wyrm asked me to close the cycle because we talk on facebook relatively regularly, having got to know each other through Heirs. I'll be able to get actual thoughts up later tonight, I hope, but think this ought to allay any meta concerns you may have.

Regarding activity, I'd point you to most of the recent games I've played, Sart. Last cycle was not atypical of how I play. This cycle represents an aberration, but one that I think has entirely reasonable causes.

Thank you for responding Orlok. It was mostly the meta-thing that was bothering me, which you had a perfectly good excuse for. I hope your friend is doing okay.

To continue the contribution crusade, I'll post a poke vote on Arinian. @Arinian hello! You seemed fairly critical of Aman's no-vote plan on Day 1. However, you haven't put up any suspects yet. Do you have any ideas for who the Elims might be?

Edited October 14, 2017 by Sart
Greened out vote

[Wyrmhero]

As GM, I can confirm that I asked Orlok to do so in his capacity as a moderator. The reason I asked him instead of Alv is because Orlok is on my timezone, so I was sure of getting a response before rollover.

Edited October 13, 2017 by Wyrmhero

[Arrae]

22 hours ago, Frozen Mint said:

1. I voted for Aman because I realized that his plan didn't make much sense. Looking at who's willing to take the risk of reaching out to him is helpful. But in terms of learning more about the Seer's approach to the game via his death on D3, is there really any circumstance where the Seer wouldn't convert him despite his inevitable death? There are cases where the best strategy isn't so clear cut, but this didn't seem to be one of them. Basically, Aman's conversion was inevitable and his death wouldn't tell us anything about the Seer's approach moving forward. By lynching Aman, we've prevented the Seer from gaining information.

2.Two points on pushing for the lynch. First, I stand by what I said on the lynch giving us information we can use in the long run. Lynches, D1 or not, promote a lot of discussion. The amount of discussion we had wouldn't have happened without the genuine threat of a lynch. You wouldn't even be voting for me if no one was willing to lynch a player on D1 (I think you've come to the wrong conclusion given the evidence but that's another issue ). I didn't think we were going to hit the Seer. I didn't want to hit the Seer because that would have been a boring game (not true as of my first post but something I felt later on). If we waited until some players were converted, we would have more of a chance on killing an elim, but the elims would have time to plan and discuss while we would be as blind as we were at the start of the game.

3.Second, if the Seer wanted a lynch, I wouldn't think they'd push too hard for one. It would draw a lot of attention to them. Which I wouldn't think they would do, especially D1. It draws more attention then they'd probably want. Of course, that would also depend on the specific player. But I really don't think my promotion of the lynch makes me suspicious. Maybe if it was a more vocal and experienced player, but I don't see how this reasoning works with me.

1. I know you're not the only person saying this, but I don't think it's a given that the Seer would have converted Aman. Almost right after Aman made his offer, Orlok made a post of why it was a terrible idea, which probably dimished the power of the gambit. The Seer would have to take the risk of Aman not having a lot of info into account too.

2. Alright. I disagree with you but the issue's a moot point now and we have better things to discuss.

3. What the Seer, or any eliminator, would do depends a lot on who they are. I'm going to use Aman as an example because he's dead. He's well-known for being a player with a lit of thoughtful analysis and is a driver of discussion. Even though elims generally don't want the village to discuss, if Aman is an elim, he can't suddenly slink into the shadows and not discuss anything. That would be super obvious. Aman always draws attention and not drawing attention would draw a ton of suspicion, unless before the game he said he was going to do something different. On the other hand, an elim who usually sits right on the border of inactivity can continue being inactive and it won't be very different. Elims don't all play the same way.

---

I think the Seer either converted someone or attacked a protected player. Conversions and kill attempts don't get noted in the writeup, so we don't know for sure, but that seems more likely than the Seer not doing anything N1. I know Wyrm puts in effort to pick elims that he thinks probably won't go inactive.

[Araris Valerian]

@Paranoid King You mention that most players voted for no lynch, but only list 11/25, which isn't over half.

I'm going to vote on Steeldancer. I appreciate the RP, but I'd prefer if we could get down to the business of killing people.

[Steeldancer]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Paranoid King You mention that most players voted for no lynch, but only list 11/25, which isn't over half.

I'm going to vote on Steeldancer. I appreciate the RP, but I'd prefer if we could get down to the business of killing people.

As mentioned earlier, I have had my mind on other things. Namely a tonsil stone and relationship issues. I just got back from a shift at work, and it's super late. I'll come up with something coherent in the morning. 

That being said, I do not have any reads on anyone. Everyone feels so... idk. Impossible to read? The least the elims could do is give us something to work with, right? (Assuming they're plural at this point). Same issue ive had in literally every game I've played- how to read elims. Never been successful so far. 

Anyway, I'll say something hopefully useful in the morning. 

[Jondesu]

3 hours ago, Arraenae said:

I think the Seer either converted someone or attacked a protected player. Conversions and kill attempts don't get noted in the writeup, so we don't know for sure, but that seems more likely than the Seer not doing anything N1. I know Wyrm puts in effort to pick elims that he thinks probably won't go inactive.

Am I reading the rules wrong, or does the Seer not have a kill of their own? I was thinking they needed to convert a kill role to have access to that.

[Sony]

@Paranoid King

As Wyrm said, a no lynch vote is actually just abstaining from the vote. Since there were only 5 votes the last day cycle, then 20/25 people abstained from voting.

In my mind, people who didn't bring up their opinion on the lynch discussion are more suspicious than the people who posted about the D1 lynch. 

So, for right now, Straw. The only thing he has posted was a vote for Wyrm, which doesn't count. This also serves as a poke vote.  @Straw

Edited October 14, 2017 by Sony
Forgot to tag Straw :P

[Paranoid King]

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Paranoid King You mention that most players voted for no lynch, but only list 11/25, which isn't over half.

To clarify, of the people who posted an opinion on whether or not there should be a vote, 11 of them voted for a no vote. Maybe I missed someone, but from what I saw, only 16 people shared their opinion on the vote, which means it's 11/16. Which is over half, using my definition

15 minutes ago, Sony said:

@Paranoid King

As Wyrm said, a no lynch vote is actually just abstaining from the vote. Since there were only 5 votes the last day cycle, then 20/25 people abstained from voting.

In my mind, people who didn't bring up their opinion on the lynch discussion are more suspicious than the people who posted about the D1 lynch.

Well, it's not specifically whether they voted or not. It's what their opinion was on the vote. I may be looking at this wrong, but in my mind, experienced eliminators would try to contribute to the discussion, so they don't get singled out. If they're inexperienced and trying to lay low, I'd agree with you, but assuming an eliminator who knows what they're doing, I'd recommend those in my list.

[Arrae]

@Jondesu, the elims have a group kill.

[Sony]

@Paranoid King , I wouldn't really know how experienced players play since I'm still inexperienced (  ); however, I do agree with your point on Jondesu.

Although, I'm inclined to believe his comment on thinking that it was a tied vote.

Also, Straw. Sorry Straw, I didn't see your post earlier this cycle.  

[Sart]

Vote Count:
Mint (1): Rae
Straw (0): Paranoid King{1}, Sony
Jondesu (1): Paranoid King{2}
Elbereth (1): Droughtbringer
Orlok (0): Sart{1}
Arinian (1): Sart{2}
Steeldancer (1): Araris

People who have been on the Shard during this turn, but haven't posted:
@Arinian
@Seonid
@StrikerEZ
@Lemonelon
@little wilson
@Elbereth (Has said she is busy with classes)
@Doc12 (He's been helping a friend through a rough time)
@DarianHammersmith
@Aonar Faileas

Come on guys, let's get some discussion going. Discussion question: Would you like me to continue to notifying players that they haven't posted in cycles? I can see it getting annoying, but I want everyone to participate.

[Seonid]

4 hours ago, Sart said:

Discussion question: Would you like me to continue to notifying players that they haven't posted in cycles? I can see it getting annoying, but I want everyone to participate.

Annoying?  Maybe.  Useful?  Most definitely.

I don't have any leads at the moment - I would like to hear especially from Lemonelon, though.  My observations from previous games indicates they possess exceptional analytical skills.

I don't have a lot to say, but it may well be worth looking at the players who were in on the Aman lynch.  If i were a Seer, I'd have argues strongly against his plan,  and tried to use that to generate early trust.

[Wyrmhero]

7 hours ago, Jondesu said:

Am I reading the rules wrong, or does the Seer not have a kill of their own? I was thinking they needed to convert a kill role to have access to that.

The Seer is a part of the Eliminator team, so they have the ability to use the shared Eliminator kill. However, they personally cannot do both convert and kill on the same Night, as each player can only do one thing a Cycle.

Quote

During the Night Turn, the Traitor team can use an Action by one of their players to make a kill attempt.

Edited October 14, 2017 by Wyrmhero

[Lemonelon]

48 minutes ago, Wyrmhero said:

The Seer is a part of the Eliminator team, so they have the ability to use the shared Eliminator kill. However, they cannot convert and kill on the same Night, as each player can only do one thing a Cycle.

 

 

Based on this, I think we have 2 elims now. I don't have any suspicions on anyone as of yet.

[Steeldancer]

It is morning, and I have come up with something potentially useful!

I was thinking to myself, "if I were the Seer, who would I convert?". Given that I didn't get many PMs out, I have no idea what anyone's roles are. Therefore, if I were the Seer, I would convert Orlok . 

[Araris Valerian]

Steeldancer. If I was the Seer, I would probably convert someone that I enjoy working with. I'm not going to list those off in case I get to be the elim in a conversion game in the near future, but I do think it's a mistake to think that there is a single player that any Seer would want to convert. The first convert lets you have discussion, so the first convert should be someone you are comfortable scheming with.

@Straw, you've posted, but didn't actually give any of your opinions. Who would you want to lynch?

I'm going to put my vote on Sart for now. I'm not really sure that there was any point in bringing up the thing about Orlok. Neither Wyrm nor Orlok would give a response to your questions that would break the game. So it seems more like a way to look like you are chasing after people and generating discussion without actually being helpful. Said questions probably would have been better to deal with in PMs.

[Straw]

Right now, I'm not really interested in lynching anyone. Currently, I don't really have any strong suspicions.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

3 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

It is morning, and I have come up with something potentially useful!

I was thinking to myself, "if I were the Seer, who would I convert?". Given that I didn't get many PMs out, I have no idea what anyone's roles are. Therefore, if I were the Seer, I would convert Orlok . 

@Steeldancer, I'm really not sure what the point in this vote is. Do you believe that I should never be allowed to play a conversion game, without being lynched in the first turns? 

The Seer is intelligent, Steeldancer. If you think I'm the obvious convert, it stands to reason that they, too, believe me to be the obvious convert, and so will shrink from converting me, knowing I'll attract scrutiny and eventual lynching.

[Frozen Mint]

15 hours ago, Arraenae said:

What the Seer, or any eliminator, would do depends a lot on who they are. I'm going to use Aman as an example because he's dead. He's well-known for being a player with a lit of thoughtful analysis and is a driver of discussion. Even though elims generally don't want the village to discuss, if Aman is an elim, he can't suddenly slink into the shadows and not discuss anything. That would be super obvious. Aman always draws attention and not drawing attention would draw a ton of suspicion, unless before the game he said he was going to do something different. On the other hand, an elim who usually sits right on the border of inactivity can continue being inactive and it won't be very different. Elims don't all play the same way.

I feel like only a handful of very experienced players would draw that much attention to themselves D1. I can see Aman doing that. But if the Seer is a player isn't that experienced or known for being vocal, I'm inclined to think that they were active without taking strong action.

I'm suspicious of Joe for publicly offering to trade information. He mentions the flaws in Aman's plan but then agrees with it. And he never provides reasoning for why he thinks it's a good idea, even when he's voted on. Shqeeves and Striker also made the same offer as Aman, but my gut says they're village. The only other thing that stood out to me was that Orlok and El both advocated for the lynch but never voted. Orlok's last post on D1 mentions that the threat of the lynch in general was more valuable than picking out an individual at the time. El said that she was okay with either of the lynch candidates towards the end of the turn so there was no incentive for her to vote. Fair reasons, but still, the lack of action feels off to me. I'm going to keep an eye on them for now.

 

[Straw]

I will be putting my vote on Steeldancer. I see no reason to lynch Orlok, as you have only meta proof against him. As Orlok pointed out, he's the obvious convert. The Seer has a limited number of beads, therefore they probably want to spend them on players who are unlikely to be suspected for meta reasons. Additionally, the Seer would probably want to convert players who aren't prominent figures in the discussion, thus allowing them to remain hidden.

[DarianHammersmith]

I would really like to make a vote but I don't really have much of an idea of who might be the Seer or converted.

I was planning on doing lots of thinking tonight but my evening has suddenly become very busy, funny how things randomly crop up. If I can get back before 9 I will be voting, if not, then I'm sorry for being an inactive drag!