Mid-Range Game 23: A Desperate Alliance

[cloudjumper]

Yeah I guess lynching a SoH is better for a neutral win. Jondesu. BR.

[A Joe in the Bush]

we do have to kill Jondesu yes, but we can do that while we also look for his comrades.  (Plus it looks like he's inactive?) We can kill Jon if we don't have a potential shardblader to lynch instead.

Actually, @Parshendi, can you convince the last Voidbringer to decay Jondesu for us? It t'would be nice.

[Stick.]

He was online an hour ago :P There's no point in him saying anything now, though I'd troll if i were him. Don't get opportunities like this everyday :P

[Elbereth]

So... here are my thoughts on the unaligned victory versus allied. (Note: I’m unaligned.)

My assumptions: 4 unaligned Parshendi (one with a kill and an extra protect now), 1 GB Parshendi (Jondesu), 1 Voidbringer. ~5-6 Sons of Honour (giving them a starting number of lives similar to the Voidbringers and a similar proportion between them and the unaligned), 3 Alethi Ghostbloods, 4-5 unaligned Alethi. 

Everyone seems to want an unaligned victory. This is for a number of reasons - the Ghostbloods want it, obviously, because it helps them immensely in keeping the numbers even into late game. And many of the unaligned want it because of a desire to go with the peaceful, compromising option that lets the most win. That’s the reasoning as I understand it, anyway. And a year ago, I would’ve been the first to join the peace treaty. I love that kind of win. 

I seriously don’t think it’s feasible, though. If the unaligned ally, here’s what happens: the Voidbringer will take out about three people before they’re killed (because they’ve got Warform and Stormform, so need to be hit three times - one Decayform kill before they’re revealed, and then two before we can hit them enough to kill them fully, probably). The Sons kill every cycle, as do the Ghostbloods. Whereas the unaligned have two tools: the Parshendi Shardbearer, and the lynch. We have no more scans - Orlok and Asterion are almost certainly the only Alethi scanners (there might be a GB Artifabrian, but if that’s the case they’re certainly not sharing), and Drake is likely to die tonight. So we have to rely on logic and gut. 

Regarding the lynch: while that could be a tool of the unaligned, we have no guarantee that it will be. There are at most 10 unaligned, out of 19 players in the game. Not all of those factions are the same, yes, but all know their own members and can direct the lynch away from their own. Which, then, will lead to unaligned being mislynched quite a lot, because there’s no one to defend that group in the way the others will be. So that’s a tool of ours only in name, practically. 

From the Alethi’s side, here’s what happens: there are five kills in the game (Ghostblood, Parshendi, Voidbringer, Sons, lynch). Of those, the first three are practically guaranteed to be leveled at us (and if you say the Voidbringer is only half a kill, they’ll probably get in as many kills as the Sons will - it’s already Day 4 here. 3 kills is a lot.). The Sons’ definitely won’t be, but with the way the lynch is going there’s no guarantee that the lynch will hit the Parshendi, either. And yet the Parshendi have 12 total lives, 8 of which are unaligned. The Alethi have 13 total (not counting Shardplate/protection, yes, though protection isn’t much of a life because it has to land on the right person and I don’t think there’ll be much more Shardplate out there since one’s already been used up), 4 or 5 of which are unaligned. 

And despite that, the Alethi want to treaty with the Parshendi, and lynch one of the Sons today. Why? 

I do not think an unaligned victory is possible. We would have to find and kill every Ghostblood, Son, and Voidbringer, while they direct 3.5 of the 5 kills available each cycle. (.5 being the lynch, since it’s their tool as much as ours and they know what they’re doing.) Theoretically, yes, it’s possible to win. In practicality, the Alethi have a far higher chance of winning with the Sons. 

On the other hand, if we ally with the Sons. The unaligned Alethi and Sons together can control the lynch, and also actually know who needs to be lynched. We don’t have to lynch ourselves at all and risk hitting more unaligned Alethi, because wiping out the Parshendi is the aim. We can coordinate kill/lynch targets and protection. I don’t see why it’s a bad idea. 

Yes. Obviously the Parshendi won’t like this, nor will the Ghostbloods. Their best chance to win is if everyone tries for an unaligned victory. But it isn’t the best chance for the Alethi. If you want a peace treaty, go for it, but know that that isn’t the optimal play for you to actually win the game. 

Note: I would not have said any of this last cycle. If the Parshendi didn’t have a kill and Shardplate now, I was looking a lot more at the unaligned victory because the Parshendi obviously weren’t enjoying the game. I disagree that this is like MR7 - the Parshendi aren’t a hidden faction scattered among the others, aren’t being killed under the pretext of being eliminators, and Jondesu isn’t someone they want/need alive anyway - but it’s similar in one respect: they felt like they were getting slaughtered without a way to fight back. If that were still the case, I wouldn’t be advocating this. 

But it’s not. And so, I highly recommend that the Alethi look a little harder at why they want a peace treaty, and whether that’s more important than a much better chance of succeeding. 

So my vote is staying on Jondesu, thank you, because I'm not interested in lynching a Son when we've already had four hits on Alethi this cycle and are on equal and possibly worse standing than the Parshendi currently. 

(P.S. I’m not going to be annoyed at people who still want to do the peace treaty, though. I’ll suspect them of being Ghostbloods, because that’s more likely, but I have no problem with wanting to have fun more than achieving a win condition. I’m not forcing anyone to agree. I just want you all to actually consider the choice.)

I have about ten multiquotes that I also need to go through and respond to, and I will do so at length tonight. For now, though, Orlok and I are in Yosemite, and waterfalls are a little prettier than arguments about alliances, so I think I'll pay attention to those for today.

[Yitzi2]

4 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

 and I don’t think there’ll be much more Shardplate out there since one’s already been used up), 4 or 5 of which are unaligned.

So you think that either BR was Shardplate and Orlok was protected, or vice versa, but not both Shardplate or both protected?

Any particular reason for that?

[Sart]

10 hours ago, Drake Marshall said:

Wow. A lot of things happened this cycle. And I have a lot to say:

First, HH was innocent. That truly sucks. Whatever you might say about me being Parshendi, I want to make it quite clear that I do take lynching an unaligned Alethi very seriously. I was pretty sure he was a Ghostblood.

Second. Jondesu didn't get shardbladed. Instead, I did. Isn't that interesting? Part of why I requested that we let the shardblader hit Jondesu is so that they wouldn't decide to go target another innocent Parshendi. The fact that the shardblader attacked me instead pretty much proves that this shardblader is a Son of Honor. Unsurprising.

Third, this presents something of a conundrum, because Jondesu is still alive. That's not good. At all. (And don't blame that on me for preventing Jondesu from dying, because the Alethi shardblader also failed to attack Jondesu in favor of attacking me instead.)

Fourth, the decayforms seem to have killed two unaligned investigative abilities. That makes life difficult, because unaligned scanners are a great tool for making peace. I'm still committed to peace (it's not really as if I have a choice, seeing as the Voidbringers might as well be out for the count), but it just got a bit harder.

Fifth, I scanned BrightnessRadiant last cycle, and learned that she is a Son of Honor.

Sixth, I'm probably going to die by a Son of Honor shardblade next cycle, unless somebody kind decides to protect me.

 

So, that's the rundown. I need time to think.

And I'm getting my wisdom teeth out tomorrow so I may not be able to do very much for a large chunk of this cycle.

Are you seriously unwilling to lynch a Ghostblood? That is a huge problem, especially since you are going after Brightness Radiant. If the rest of the Parshendi follow you, that gives control of the lynch to the Ghostbloods. That assumes there are 3 Alethi Ghostbloods, but I think that is a reasonable assumption. The Ghostbloods will win if you continue to let them slip by.

2 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Let's go over this in detail, so that those in the back can hear. There were 6 attacks, 1 was the lynch, 2 were decayform, and are therefore unusable again. The other three were made by two shardblade holders and a random Ghostblood.

Drake is out last scanner, and he has found a Son of honour, so let's go over our lynch possibilities right now: Jondesu, the revealed Ghostblood with two lives, who will take up two turns of lynching, and when he dies the ghostblood kill will continue to happen no matter what, or Brightness Radiant, the Son of Honour with only one live, and a 1/3 to 1/5 chance of being the only Son of Honour with a kill role, thereby stopping the Sons of Honour from murdering our last scanner.

2 lynches for little gain, or one lynch for the possibility of lots of gain. The scales are pretty darn clear here to me. Brightness Radiant

PS: The Flash I would like to know who knew your role, but you're mostly off the hook. :Thumbs_Up:

There's so much wrong here that I'll need to break it up.

• "There were six attacks." And there are going to be 4 this cycle. If the Parshendi voting block holds, a Son of Honor will be lynched. The Ghostbloods will kill a non-Ghostblood. The Alethi shardbearer will kill a Parshendi, and the Parshendi shardbearer will kill an Alethi. Drake is the only Parshendi who doesn't have an extra life. To further vote manipulation, the Ghostbloods will probably target an Alethi, and I assume that the Parshendi won't hit a Ghostblood, although that would be nice. That leaves us with 3 Alethi dead, and 1 Parshendi dead. This is a failed outcome. It would be 6 Alethi v. 4 Parshendi v. 4 Ghostbloods. The unaligned Alethi left would have to align with the Sons of Honour, while the Ghostbloods would have the most reliable kill.
• "Drake is our last scanner" Drake is not the last Scanner. Literally any Parshendi could spend a turn to go into Scholar form to become Scanners.
• "Jondesu will take two turns of lynching" Not unless every faction ignores him like last time. We need to learn from our mistakes.
• "One lynch for the possibility of lots of gain" The Parshendi have a Shardbearer, and Brightness has already lost an extra life. I see no reason to waste a lynch on her when the Parshendi are just going to kill her anyway.

Look. Brightness is going to die this cycle even if we don't lynch her. Why not actually use the lynch to accomplish something that all factions want? Vote peace, vote Jondesu.

[StrikerEZ]

14 minutes ago, Sart said:

Are you seriously unwilling to lynch a Ghostblood? That is a huge problem, especially since you are going after Brightness Radiant. If the rest of the Parshendi follow you, that gives control of the lynch to the Ghostbloods. That assumes there are 3 Alethi Ghostbloods, but I think that is a reasonable assumption. The Ghostbloods will win if you continue to let them slip by.

There's so much wrong here that I'll need to break it up.

• "There were six attacks." And there are going to be 4 this cycle. If the Parshendi voting block holds, a Son of Honor will be lynched. The Ghostbloods will kill a non-Ghostblood. The Alethi shardbearer will kill a Parshendi, and the Parshendi shardbearer will kill an Alethi. Drake is the only Parshendi who doesn't have an extra life. To further vote manipulation, the Ghostbloods will probably target an Alethi, and I assume that the Parshendi won't hit a Ghostblood, although that would be nice. That leaves us with 3 Alethi dead, and 1 Parshendi dead. This is a failed outcome. It would be 6 Alethi v. 4 Parshendi v. 4 Ghostbloods. The unaligned Alethi left would have to align with the Sons of Honour, while the Ghostbloods would have the most reliable kill.
• "Drake is our last scanner" Drake is not the last Scanner. Literally any Parshendi could spend a turn to go into Scholar form to become Scanners.
• "Jondesu will take two turns of lynching" Not unless every faction ignores him like last time. We need to learn from our mistakes.
• "One lynch for the possibility of lots of gain" The Parshendi have a Shardbearer, and Brightness has already lost an extra life. I see no reason to waste a lynch on her when the Parshendi are just going to kill her anyway.

Look. Brightness is going to die this cycle even if we don't lynch her. Why not actually use the lynch to accomplish something that all factions want? Vote peace, vote Jondesu.

This is actually how I feel right now, and Sart basically said everything I would've said.

I do agree that BR is a threat, but Sart is right-someone is probably gonna kill her anyway, so why waste a lynch on her? After last cycle, i think it'd be in the Alethi's best favor to lynch Jon. (I think I already voted on him, but I'll go check and add a vote here if I haven't).

I really want peace, but at this point, with two Alethi scanners dead, I'm not sure how likely that is anymore. I think we need to lynch a Parshendi to try and promote peace, because, like Sart said, there'll probably be lots of Alethi dying tonight anyway.

EDIT: Okay, I have already voted on Jon. I couldn't remember if I did last night, because it was late when I voted lol

Edited July 18, 2017 by StrikerEZ

[Straw]

Something important in RL is happening this week, so I won't be on the Shard until Saturday 

[Steeldancer]

I want the ghostbloods dead. Jondesu  

[Stick.]

Y'all make fair points 

[Megasif]

I have to say I'm tautali laust.

[Yitzi2]

1 hour ago, Sart said:

Are you seriously unwilling to lynch a Ghostblood? That is a huge problem, especially since you are going after Brightness Radiant. If the rest of the Parshendi follow you, that gives control of the lynch to the Ghostbloods. That assumes there are 3 Alethi Ghostbloods, but I think that is a reasonable assumption. The Ghostbloods will win if you continue to let them slip by.

There's so much wrong here that I'll need to break it up.

• "There were six attacks." And there are going to be 4 this cycle. If the Parshendi voting block holds, a Son of Honor will be lynched. The Ghostbloods will kill a non-Ghostblood. The Alethi shardbearer will kill a Parshendi, and the Parshendi shardbearer will kill an Alethi. Drake is the only Parshendi who doesn't have an extra life. To further vote manipulation, the Ghostbloods will probably target an Alethi, and I assume that the Parshendi won't hit a Ghostblood, although that would be nice. That leaves us with 3 Alethi dead, and 1 Parshendi dead. This is a failed outcome. It would be 6 Alethi v. 4 Parshendi v. 4 Ghostbloods. The unaligned Alethi left would have to align with the Sons of Honour, while the Ghostbloods would have the most reliable kill.
• "Drake is our last scanner" Drake is not the last Scanner. Literally any Parshendi could spend a turn to go into Scholar form to become Scanners.
• "Jondesu will take two turns of lynching" Not unless every faction ignores him like last time. We need to learn from our mistakes.
• "One lynch for the possibility of lots of gain" The Parshendi have a Shardbearer, and Brightness has already lost an extra life. I see no reason to waste a lynch on her when the Parshendi are just going to kill her anyway.

Look. Brightness is going to die this cycle even if we don't lynch her. Why not actually use the lynch to accomplish something that all factions want? Vote peace, vote Jondesu.

This does make some sense.  If Brightness is in fact the Son bladebearer, that is a point to lynch her sooner...but the fact that she survived an attack makes that somewhat less likely.  (The Sons could have a guardsman who's consistently protecting their bladebearer just in case, but the threat of the Ghostbloods controlling the lynch is a point on the other side.)

Though, if we all agree to lynch Jon once BR is dealt with, that would mean they couldn't control the lynch until that's done with.  Still, the point about the Ghostbloods gaining more influence over the lynch if not dealt with is a concern.

So I think the biggest question at hand is: What is BR's role.  If it's anything other than Shardbearer (blade), we want to lynch Jon.  If it is Shardbearer (blade), then lynching her will be a big boost for peace...but (and this just occurred to me) if the Parshendi shardbearer then decided to go for the Voidbringer victory, it'd be very difficult for the Alethi to win.  BR  Jon...but I propose we all pledge that if the Parshendi lose their Shardbearer by any means, we lynch BR (if she's not dead yet), even if we'd be able to get a Sons victory without it or it results in a Voidbringer victory (though in case the Ghostbloods are too powerful at that point, I propose that the Parshendi have the ability to cancel or delay this pledge).

[BrightnessRadiant]

Okay so that explains why I was hit...I think that Drake is a ghost Parshendi who is fake claiming that he saw my alignment. Why would I offer a Parshendi help if I was a SoH? I am a Highprincess who can protect. I do not have a kill. I wanted to help protect Parshendi and Alethi alike since we were so focused on peace the last few rounds. But now that Drake is lying about me like this I'm inclined to agree with Elbereth's post about siding completely with the Sons. For all intended purposes you might as well call me a SoH now. I honestly don't appreciate being hit after offering help to the Parshendi. 

Tbh I kinda wanna lynch Drake right now but I will go ahead and keep my vote on Jon because I trust Orlok's scan and I don't mind if Drake does get hit this cycle. So much for protecting him. *shrugs

[Yitzi2]

32 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Okay so that explains why I was hit...

Please elaborate.  What explains why you were hit, and how?

[BrightnessRadiant]

4 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

Please elaborate.  What explains why you were hit, and how?

I believe Drake is a ghost and is lying about me to get me lynched. I think they probably hit me so they could get rid of my plate protection. I offered them my help and I think that is pretty clear that I had a protection role of some kind with that offer, so it wouldn't be surprising that they'd think I had plate they needed to get rid of. Now they're trying to use the lynch to finish the job. I don't know if anyone will believe me over Drake though cuz he had me fooled as wanting peace before this.

[Yitzi2]

15 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

I believe Drake is a ghost and is lying about me to get me lynched. I think they probably hit me so they could get rid of my plate protection. I offered them my help and I think that is pretty clear that I had a protection role of some kind with that offer, so it wouldn't be surprising that they'd think I had plate they needed to get rid of.

That doesn't really follow; of the two Alethi protection roles (guardsman and Highprince), only one has plate, and it's probably the rarer by far.  Furthermore, if they were going to try to get you lynched, that would be all the more reason to hit someone else instead, since needing to lynch you twice would mean more time until the subterfuge was discovered.

It seems much more plausible, if it was due to your offer, that this was because your Parshendi contact was in fact a Ghostblood (which would imply two Parshendi Ghostbloods, which I find far more likely than some others seem to think it is, or three if your contact was not Drake) or shared in in the doc and a Ghostblood saw it, and the Ghostbloods decided that a protective role would interfere with their plans.  When the hit failed, they'd need a plan B.

Edited July 18, 2017 by Yitzi2

[Stick.]

Better safe than sorry.

BR  Jondesu.

I have never switched between votes so many times.

[Alvron]

11 hours ago, The Flash said:

No idea. But I bet they've broken through my Shardplate now  only one person knew I had that, so I'm betting they didn't know that. 

But seriously I'm not all that important. I'm not even a son of honor. Just an average alethi with blue Shardplate. 

You, Stick and Brightness were all on the short list Len gave us for possible Decay kills.  While he didn't reveal who the third Voidbringer was going after it's possible that it was you. And before anyone asks, no he didn't tell us if there was three or four Voidbringers.

5 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

we do have to kill Jondesu yes, but we can do that while we also look for his comrades.  (Plus it looks like he's inactive?) We can kill Jon if we don't have a potential shardblader to lynch instead.

Actually, @Parshendi, can you convince the last Voidbringer to decay Jondesu for us? It t'would be nice.

Sadly it's more likely that there are no more Decay kills.

4 hours ago, Sart said:

Are you seriously unwilling to lynch a Ghostblood? That is a huge problem, especially since you are going after Brightness Radiant. If the rest of the Parshendi follow you, that gives control of the lynch to the Ghostbloods. That assumes there are 3 Alethi Ghostbloods, but I think that is a reasonable assumption. The Ghostbloods will win if you continue to let them slip by.

There's so much wrong here that I'll need to break it up.

• "There were six attacks." And there are going to be 4 this cycle. If the Parshendi voting block holds, a Son of Honor will be lynched. The Ghostbloods will kill a non-Ghostblood. The Alethi shardbearer will kill a Parshendi, and the Parshendi shardbearer will kill an Alethi. Drake is the only Parshendi who doesn't have an extra life. To further vote manipulation, the Ghostbloods will probably target an Alethi, and I assume that the Parshendi won't hit a Ghostblood, although that would be nice. That leaves us with 3 Alethi dead, and 1 Parshendi dead. This is a failed outcome. It would be 6 Alethi v. 4 Parshendi v. 4 Ghostbloods. The unaligned Alethi left would have to align with the Sons of Honour, while the Ghostbloods would have the most reliable kill.
• "Drake is our last scanner" Drake is not the last Scanner. Literally any Parshendi could spend a turn to go into Scholar form to become Scanners.
• "Jondesu will take two turns of lynching" Not unless every faction ignores him like last time. We need to learn from our mistakes.
• "One lynch for the possibility of lots of gain" The Parshendi have a Shardbearer, and Brightness has already lost an extra life. I see no reason to waste a lynch on her when the Parshendi are just going to kill her anyway.

Look. Brightness is going to die this cycle even if we don't lynch her. Why not actually use the lynch to accomplish something that all factions want? Vote peace, vote Jondesu.

Drake isn't the only Parshendi to have lost a life.  Another lost one while protecting Len from the double tap on D1.
As far as I'm aware, there are three Parshendi currently claiming to be in Scolarform. The only other scan of note however was that Sami is Alethi.
Yes, which is why both Drake and myself were advocating that the Alethi use their Shardblade on Jon last cycle.  But instead they choose to attack Drake, someone who has publicly revealed themselves to be a scanner and actively working towards peace.  If the Alethi/SoH Shardblader had attacked Jon last cycle and this one then a GB would be dead and we could use the lynch for another GB / SoH / Voidbringer.
There is no guarantee that the Parshendi Shardholder will attack Brightness.  They might not have even attacked anyone last round either.

1 hour ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Okay so that explains why I was hit...I think that Drake is a ghost Parshendi who is fake claiming that he saw my alignment. Why would I offer a Parshendi help if I was a SoH? I am a Highprincess who can protect. I do not have a kill. I wanted to help protect Parshendi and Alethi alike since we were so focused on peace the last few rounds. But now that Drake is lying about me like this I'm inclined to agree with Elbereth's post about siding completely with the Sons. For all intended purposes you might as well call me a SoH now. I honestly don't appreciate being hit after offering help to the Parshendi. 

That's very interesting that you claim Highprince as we have scanned someone else with that role and while we don't know their alignment I don't think it's likely that there are two on one team.  Also, if you are a Highprince then you do in fact have a kill, it's just a reactionary kill.  Besides, it's entirely possible that the GB didn't attack you but you were instead a Decay attack.

[Yitzi2]

12 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Besides, it's entirely possible that the GB didn't attack you but you were instead a Decay attack.

No, it actually isn't; if you look at cycle 2 results (beginning of cycle 3), Orlok was not marked as attacked.  Decay "attacks" are not marked as attacks until they actually kill.

[Alvron]

Just now, Yitzi2 said:

No, it actually isn't; if you look at cycle 2 results (beginning of cycle 3), Orlok was not marked as attacked.  Decay "attacks" are not marked as attacks until they actually kill.

But the attack this cycle was the attack.  Shardplate is the only thing that stops a Decay attack so that explains why they didn't die but instead only got listed as attacked.

[Yitzi2]

1 minute ago, Alvron said:

But the attack this cycle was the attack.  Shardplate is the only thing that stops a Decay attack so that explains why they didn't die but instead only got listed as attacked.

Ah, I misunderstood.

In which case, whoever it was would have been hit by the decay attack last cycle (i.e. it was sent the previous cycle)...which sort of makes sense, since that's when the other two did.

Edited July 18, 2017 by Yitzi2

[BrightnessRadiant]

35 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

Ah, I misunderstood.

In which case, whoever it was would have been hit by the decay attack last cycle (i.e. it was sent the previous cycle)...which sort of makes sense, since that's when the other two did.

Except wouldn't I have been roleblocked if I was hit by a decay attack? I wasn't and my protection of other players has been noted every cycle by Seonid in pm has having gone through.

[DrakeMarshall]

Well, I'm back. And... Mostly lucid, anyway.

Also my post just got totally deleted.

Anyways. There are two things I would very much like to respond to:

5 hours ago, Sart said:

Are you seriously unwilling to lynch a Ghostblood? That is a huge problem, especially since you are going after Brightness Radiant. If the rest of the Parshendi follow you, that gives control of the lynch to the Ghostbloods. That assumes there are 3 Alethi Ghostbloods, but I think that is a reasonable assumption. The Ghostbloods will win if you continue to let them slip by.

There's so much wrong here that I'll need to break it up.

• "There were six attacks." And there are going to be 4 this cycle. If the Parshendi voting block holds, a Son of Honor will be lynched. The Ghostbloods will kill a non-Ghostblood. The Alethi shardbearer will kill a Parshendi, and the Parshendi shardbearer will kill an Alethi. Drake is the only Parshendi who doesn't have an extra life. To further vote manipulation, the Ghostbloods will probably target an Alethi, and I assume that the Parshendi won't hit a Ghostblood, although that would be nice. That leaves us with 3 Alethi dead, and 1 Parshendi dead. This is a failed outcome. It would be 6 Alethi v. 4 Parshendi v. 4 Ghostbloods. The unaligned Alethi left would have to align with the Sons of Honour, while the Ghostbloods would have the most reliable kill.
• "Drake is our last scanner" Drake is not the last Scanner. Literally any Parshendi could spend a turn to go into Scholar form to become Scanners.
• "Jondesu will take two turns of lynching" Not unless every faction ignores him like last time. We need to learn from our mistakes.
• "One lynch for the possibility of lots of gain" The Parshendi have a Shardbearer, and Brightness has already lost an extra life. I see no reason to waste a lynch on her when the Parshendi are just going to kill her anyway.

Look. Brightness is going to die this cycle even if we don't lynch her. Why not actually use the lynch to accomplish something that all factions want? Vote peace, vote Jondesu.

First of all, "Are you seriously unwilling to lynch a Ghostblood?"

In the post you quoted, you may have noticed I didn't cast a vote either way. I was thinking. So I don't know how you draw that conclusion.

Second, I'm definitely not the only Parshendi with no extra life.

Third, you seem to be assuming that we are going to constantly lynch random Alethi, and that the Parshendi shardbearer is going to indescriminately kill Alethi without searching for Sons of Honor. Neither of those assumptions are likely to be true, if I have anything at all to say about it.

Fourth, you are quite right that I'm not the last scanner. There will be a fair number of scholarforms that come after me. But I hope I don't flatter myself too much when I say that my survive would probably help the outcome of this game (there is a reason why somebody wanted me dead, after all ).

Fifth, why wouldn't every faction ignore him like last time? The Alethi shardblader appears to be very eager to ignore Jondesu, to maneuver us into wasting too lynches. And while I have requested the Parshendi shardblader to target Jondesu, I also wouldn't blame them at all if they targeted a Son of Honor instead. Because we know for a fact that the Alethi shardblader isn't going to be similarly inhibited in any way, so how could I blame our shardblader for refusing to give up a kill, if yours is never going to?

Really, it boils down to this. The Parshendi now have a shardblade. And the Alethi now feel more threatened by this.

Well, that's totally understandable. We are undeniably more dangerous now.

But, frankly, if we can't move forward with negotiations the moment the Alethi lose massive superiority over the Parshendi, then I have to wonder if there is any real trust here.

1 hour ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Okay so that explains why I was hit...I think that Drake is a ghost Parshendi who is fake claiming that he saw my alignment. Why would I offer a Parshendi help if I was a SoH? I am a Highprincess who can protect. I do not have a kill. I wanted to help protect Parshendi and Alethi alike since we were so focused on peace the last few rounds. But now that Drake is lying about me like this I'm inclined to agree with Elbereth's post about siding completely with the Sons. For all intended purposes you might as well call me a SoH now. I honestly don't appreciate being hit after offering help to the Parshendi. 

Tbh I kinda wanna lynch Drake right now but I will go ahead and keep my vote on Jon because I trust Orlok's scan and I don't mind if Drake does get hit this cycle. So much for protecting him. *shrugs

Now this post is quite interesting. I have to say that it was an impressive attempt. However:

First of all, I am a Ghostblood? That argument has quite the expiration date, because I'll be dead soon. It will be quite clear that I'm not a Ghostblood at that point.

Second, two Parshendi Ghostbloods would be unbalanced imo. It would mean that 5/8 of the Parshendi were in secret factions, and that the Parshendi effectively only actually had 6 members, which would be even worse than 7.

Third, you claim highprincess. This is interesting, because I happen to know the identity of a different person with that role. The problem is, this role has a protect+kill power and an extra life. That's a very powerful role. I'm really quite skeptical that there are two of them in the game. Highprincess is a credible explanation for why you survived an attack, but I'm not sure I buy it. More importantly, even if I did buy it, you are still a Son of Honor with an extremely dangerous role, and I hope you forgive me if I say that I want you dead rather soon.

Fourth, if you wanted to protect Parshendi and Alethi alike, why haven't you protected any Parshendi? You made a sort of vague offer to side with the peace in a PM to me, and jumped on the HH bandwagon (boldly acting as if you had planned to do it all along, for that I have to say very well done; nobody expects a lie quite so brazen as that). But you never actually did anything conducive to peace. With the exception of the HH compromise, you consistently voted in a way that directly benefited the Sons of Honor, and until last cycle your posts reflected a pro-Sons of Honor sentiment.

Fifth, I know you kind of want to lynch me But unless you wanted to stop denying your identity as a Son of Honor, you are going to leave me alive, because my death only proves that I was telling the truth about these investigation results. Hmmmm. That sounds like quite a delightful conundrum. Depending on how much you actually care about your cover, it might even save my hide.

Sixth, if I were a Ghostblood, wouldn't this pretty badly blow my cover, if I did succeed in getting you lynched?

 

 

Anyways... I think we need to move forward from all this.

The issue is really quite simple. We have two people who we want dead, but we probably won't be able to kill both of them.

 

So I have a proposal to make. Or perhaps we could call it another compromise. Because I think this arrangement would be mutually profitable.

Namely. We will all agree to lynch Jondesu.

In return, you will lynch a suspected Son of Honor next cycle. It could be Brightness, or it could be someone else, if one of the scholarforms end up unveiling another Son of Honor.

I fully understand why you want Jondesu dead. But if we cannot agree to lynch a confirmed Son of Honor at least the cycle after we lynch Jondesu, then I really have to assume that you are aiming for the Son of Honor win and not an unaligned win.

[Yitzi2]

9 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

Well, I'm back. And... Mostly lucid, anyway.

Also my post just got totally deleted.

Anyways. There are two things I would very much like to respond to:

First of all, "Are you seriously unwilling to lynch a Ghostblood?"

In the post you quoted, you may have noticed I didn't cast a vote either way. I was thinking. So I don't know how you draw that conclusion.

Second, I'm definitely not the only Parshendi with no extra life.

Third, you seem to be assuming that we are going to constantly lynch random Alethi, and that the Parshendi shardbearer is going to indescriminately kill Alethi without searching for Sons of Honor. Neither of those assumptions are likely to be true, if I have anything at all to say about it.

Fourth, you are quite right that I'm not the last scanner. There will be a fair number of scholarforms that come after me. But I hope I don't flatter myself too much when I say that my survive would probably help the outcome of this game (there is a reason why somebody wanted me dead, after all ).

Fifth, why wouldn't every faction ignore him like last time? The Alethi shardblader appears to be very eager to ignore Jondesu, to maneuver us into wasting too lynches. And while I have requested the Parshendi shardblader to target Jondesu, I also wouldn't blame them at all if they targeted a Son of Honor instead. Because we know for a fact that the Alethi shardblader isn't going to be similarly inhibited in any way, so how could I blame our shardblader for refusing to give up a kill, if yours is never going to?

Really, it boils down to this. The Parshendi now have a shardblade. And the Alethi now feel more threatened by this.

Well, that's totally understandable. We are undeniably more dangerous now.

But, frankly, if we can't move forward with negotiations the moment the Alethi lose massive superiority over the Parshendi, then I have to wonder if there is any real trust here.

Now this post is quite interesting. I have to say that it was an impressive attempt. However:

First of all, I am a Ghostblood? That argument has quite the expiration date, because I'll be dead soon. It will be quite clear that I'm not a Ghostblood at that point.

Second, two Parshendi Ghostbloods would be unbalanced imo. It would mean that 5/8 of the Parshendi were in secret factions, and that the Parshendi effectively only actually had 6 members, which would be even worse than 7.

Third, you claim highprincess. This is interesting, because I happen to know the identity of a different person with that role. The problem is, this role has a protect+kill power and an extra life. That's a very powerful role. I'm really quite skeptical that there are two of them in the game. Highprincess is a credible explanation for why you survived an attack, but I'm not sure I buy it. More importantly, even if I did buy it, you are still a Son of Honor with an extremely dangerous role, and I hope you forgive me if I say that I want you dead rather soon.

Fourth, if you wanted to protect Parshendi and Alethi alike, why haven't you protected any Parshendi? You made a sort of vague offer to side with the peace in a PM to me, and jumped on the HH bandwagon (boldly acting as if you had planned to do it all along, for that I have to say very well done; nobody expects a lie quite so brazen as that). But you never actually did anything conducive to peace. With the exception of the HH compromise, you consistently voted in a way that directly benefited the Sons of Honor, and until last cycle your posts reflected a pro-Sons of Honor sentiment.

Fifth, I know you kind of want to lynch me But unless you wanted to stop denying your identity as a Son of Honor, you are going to leave me alive, because my death only proves that I was telling the truth about these investigation results. Hmmmm. That sounds like quite a delightful conundrum. Depending on how much you actually care about your cover, it might even save my hide.

Sixth, if I were a Ghostblood, wouldn't this pretty badly blow my cover, if I did succeed in getting you lynched?

 

 

Anyways... I think we need to move forward from all this.

The issue is really quite simple. We have two people who we want dead, but we probably won't be able to kill both of them.

 

So I have a proposal to make. Or perhaps we could call it another compromise. Because I think this arrangement would be mutually profitable.

Namely. We will all agree to lynch Jondesu.

In return, you will lynch a suspected Son of Honor next cycle. It could be Brightness, or it could be someone else, if one of the scholarforms end up unveiling another Son of Honor.

I fully understand why you want Jondesu dead. But if we cannot agree to lynch a confirmed Son of Honor at least the cycle after we lynch Jondesu, then I really have to assume that you are aiming for the Son of Honor win and not an unaligned win.

I think this seems fair.

[DrakeMarshall]

6 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

I think this seems fair.

Hmmm. Well I know I can't really expect you to speak on behalf of the entire Alethi, but I'll take it.

BrightnessRadiant.

Jondesu.

Needless to say, if you don't intend to honor this, you'd better make sure you kill me by the end of the cycle...