Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[DeTess she/her]

21 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Did Straw not end up voting on anyone? And how clear do we think it was to the elim's that Yitizi would die after Aman made his post? Aman, why did you end up voting on Asterion?

How clear do you think it was, based on the D2 thread?

And Aman explained that during the day, odd though his reasoning might be.

[Dalinar Kholin]

Well, I'd guess elim's at any point would want to save one of their own. They don't have that many people, so losing any one of their number is a blow. However, their greatest asset is staying hidden. So if they could sacrifice one of their cause in order to clear themselves, it is in their interests to do so. My rough guess would be anyone who voted on Yitzi before Aman's post is somewhat cleared, or at least heavy lean village. Those who voted afterwards are less meaningful. It's possible for elim's to quickly conclude that Yitzi was dead and sacrifice him in order to try and clear themselves. @StrikerEZ Why did you vote for Asterion after Aman's post and only change to Yitzi later? Arranae, I'd argue is leaning village because she jumped early, Flash maybe too, when it was still close, but I wouldn't say it says anything about anyone else.

[Dalinar Kholin]

7 minutes ago, randuir said:

How clear do you think it was, based on the D2 thread?

And Aman explained that during the day, odd though his reasoning might be.

I will need to look back at the thread. I only remember him explaining why he voted on Asterion initially.

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

@Dalinar Kholin Lopen and I voted Yitzi day 1 ... does that count for something lol 

[Dalinar Kholin]

5 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

@Dalinar Kholin Lopen and I voted Yitzi day 1 ... does that count for something lol 

That's true  I was just referring to what the day two vote tells us. I don't want to go back and read the monstrosity that is day one again until I absolutely need too...

Edited June 30, 2017 by Dalinar Kholin
grammars against my religion

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

16 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

That's true  I was just referring to what the day to vote tells us. I don't want to go back and read the monstrosity that is day one again until I absolutely need too...

Haha.. I think the Yitzi vote only took place on like the 3rd to last page if that helps in your research 

Edit: cuz I'm nice....here are the votes on Yitzi day 1 lol

1. Lopen starts the train: below

2. Aman assists with adding fuel to the train: above

3. I become first class passenger on the train: below

4. Seonid climbs on board as well: below

Ninja'd by Aman but I can't move these links on mobile or delete them without deleting the whole post lol

Edited June 30, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant
Added stuff and was Ninja'd

[Amanuensis he/him]

That's a big relief. I had a few doubts about Yitzi on D1 but it solidified into a tunnel with that elim comment during the night. Hopefully me not reacting to that how I wanted to at the time allowed us to get some useful information from him during the first half of the second day.

Off the top of my head, Straw is a potential ally due to Yitzi's soft defense of him D1, Stick is a potential ally due to her coming in and saying she'd vote Randuir of the 3 before Jon became a candidate, and Asterion is a potential ally for how long he waited to talk / vote about him.

Looking forward to seeing what other theories people wrangle up.

Edited June 30, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Dalinar Kholin]

32 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Haha.. I think the Yitzi vote only took place on like the 3rd to last page if that helps in your research 

Edit: cuz I'm nice....here are the votes on Yitzi day 1 lol

1. Lopen starts the train: below

2. Aman assists with adding fuel to the train: above

3. I become first class passenger on the train: below

4. Seonid climbs on board as well: below

Ninja'd by Aman but I can't move these links on mobile or delete them without deleting the whole post lol

Nice! This is good to have. Makes you village in my mind. Same with Lopen. I think my main suspicion at the moment is Straw, I'll go back at some point to back that up with evidence, but it feels like he's trying to go under the radar right now, especially with his voting on Asterion. If he's evil, it means Asterion is probably good. Anyone have good reason why he wouldn't be evil?

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

1 minute ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Nice! This is good to have. Makes you village in my mind. Same with Lopen. I think my main suspicion at the moment is Straw, I'll go back at some point to back that up with evidence, but it feels like he's trying to go under the radar right now, especially with his voting on Asterion. If he's evil, it means Asterion is probably good. Anyone have good reason why he wouldn't be evil?

1. Glad it's helpful 

2. Because Stink voted on him lolol  (just kidding straw is on my suspicions list too)

[Amanuensis he/him]

17 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

 

Nice! This is good to have. Makes you village in my mind. Same with Lopen. I think my main suspicion at the moment is Straw, I'll go back at some point to back that up with evidence, but it feels like he's trying to go under the radar right now, especially with his voting on Asterion. If he's evil, it means Asterion is probably good. Anyone have good reason why he wouldn't be evil?

No good reason here. I defended him D1 because he was actually trying and I didn't want that discouraged, on top of the fact that he gets lynched early a lot and I didn't want that trend to continue if he's a villager. But Yitzi's defense of him that I pointed out on D1 is very weird, and Straw has since dropped off.

That being said, if Straw isn't evil, it becomes more likely that one of the players who voted for him on D1 (Araris, Len and Rae, off the top of my head) are evil. If I had to guess it would be Len, but Araris is always impossible to read.

Edited June 30, 2017 by Amanuensis

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

well I haven't been terribly active the last few days

Sorry @Arraenae for not responding to your RP earlier.

Also it looks like an infiltrator got lynched on the second cycle. Nicely done.

 

"Lukas, can we, well, can I go inside to see of anyone has food? I know it's not lunchtime, but maybe somebody will have something?"

"That sounds like an excellent idea. Perhaps someone will be willing to help." Lukas looked around for a likely benefactor.

 

@anyone in the barricade do you feel like opening your house to some hungry revolutionaries? 

Edited June 30, 2017 by Drake Marshall

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I'll try and give you something to read about me. I've been really sick the last week, and this wasn't really a priority. If I don't contribute at all before the end of the night then the Coinshot can feel free to shoot me.

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

 

I'll try and give you something to read about me. I've been really sick the last week, and this wasn't really a priority. If I don't contribute at all before the end of the night then the Coinshot can feel free to shoot me.

I would appreciate that very much  glad you're feeling better.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Well, would you look at that! Good job team! We actually got an elim on the second day. That's pretty good.

Anyway, @Dalinar Kholin What are you talking about with my vote? I voted Asterion after Aman explains the reasoning behind the vote on him, then when Aman gave what I thought was a better reasoning to vote Yitzi, I switched. I think that's what happened, but I can't remember.

Also, my mom had back surgery today, and my grandpa and some of my aunts/cousins have come up here, so I've been fairly busy today. I'm actually leaving with my grandpa to go to his house until the Fourth of July, so I'll be fairly inactive because I don't think he has wifi, though I'll use my hotspot every now and then to check up on this to vote and do any actions I need to. I'll be on for the next couple hours though.

 

[Arrae]

What's the mobile code for the lighter shade of green?

[DeTess she/her]

@Arraenae Let me quickly check. I believe it's this shade which should be 00cc00.

Edited June 30, 2017 by randuir

[Arrae]

Testing.

[Stick. she/her]

Sorry, due to a power cut in my area, I wasn't able to post sooner. It already happened twice today, so I'm not sure how long I'll have internet access.

Firstly, yay for first elim catch :-D Secondly, I said the same thing during the short-term Aster bandwagon, and I'm saying it now: I'd expect at least one or two elims to be among the yitzi voters, I mean, including the ones who voted immediately after Aman's role reveal post. The ones before, though, (PK, Arin and Dalinar, was it?), I wouldn't say they're 'cleared' or anything, but I'm leaning village. As well as the D1 Yitzi voters.

8 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Yeah, I figure me, Seonid, and Brightness are all pretty cleared at this point for our votes on Yitzi close to the end of D1. Bussing is a thing of course, but they really don't seem like bus votes to me. Maybe Seonid, but I really don't think so.

Yeah, I doubt anyone would try a bus on D1 :-P 

@Haelbarde P sure I switched my vote to Yitzi 

Okay just realised the D1 and D2 vote patterns both really put me in a bad place...But i really wasn't suspicious of Yitzi D1. Even D2, didn't really analyse his posts until the end of the turn when lots of votes started accumulating on him. Eh.

And someone burnt tin. @STINK is this the same player who burnt tin last time? I expected there to be at least one other 

[Amanuensis he/him]

14 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

Yitzi2 has been lynched. They were an Infiltrator and Roleless.

@STINK, did you honestly think he was village? Or did he claim evil to you and you didn't want to lose an elim contact?

Edited July 1, 2017 by Amanuensis

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

@Amanuensis "reason's got nothing to do with it" ~ Gibbs (pirates of the Caribbean) 

I can't believe I just found this already edited and just waiting for me to post it perfectly here 

Edited July 1, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant
Grammar mistake ;P

[Amanuensis he/him]

13 hours ago, asterion137 said:

@Haelbarde i switched my vote to yitzi around page 9 of D2

What are your thoughts now after the reveal?

8 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

 

Well, would you look at that! Good job team! We actually got an elim on the second day. That's pretty good.

Anyway, @Dalinar Kholin What are you talking about with my vote? I voted Asterion after Aman explains the reasoning behind the vote on him, then when Aman gave what I thought was a better reasoning to vote Yitzi, I switched. I think that's what happened, but I can't remember.

Also, my mom had back surgery today, and my grandpa and some of my aunts/cousins have come up here, so I've been fairly busy today. I'm actually leaving with my grandpa to go to his house until the Fourth of July, so I'll be fairly inactive because I don't think he has wifi, though I'll use my hotspot every now and then to check up on this to vote and do any actions I need to. I'll be on for the next couple hours though.

We almost had him the first day, but people wanted to lynch other people more. Wonder if there's anything that can be learned looking back at those votes...

Technically my reasoning for voting Aster was entirely based on the fact he was avoiding interaction with Yitzi, who I believed was evil from a slip that I don't think I pointed out at the time, so I'm not entirely sure what I said was convincing about either. It could have been my confidence, but...

I'll be dying tonight, so if I don't see you between now and then, hope your mother recovers quickly and that you have a fun Independence Day.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

What are your thoughts now after the reveal?

We almost had him the first day, but people wanted to lynch other people more. Wonder if there's anything that can be learned looking back at those votes...

Technically my reasoning for voting Aster was entirely based on the fact he was avoiding interaction with Yitzi, who I believed was evil from a slip that I don't think I pointed out at the time, so I'm not entirely sure what I said was convincing about either. It could have been my confidence, but...

I'll be dying tonight, so if I don't see you between now and then, hope your mother recovers quickly and that you have a fun Independence Day.

RIP, thanks for playing.

Didn't do any reviewing, but here's my feelings for each player for now:

Village:

Aman - Village obvs, apparently dying
Lopen - Village obvs
Brightness - Village, based off of votes on Yitzi, and tone.
Seonid - Village, based off of vote on Yitzi.
Straw - I'm kind of flip flopping, but I'll put him in my village reads for now.
Arinian - Strong village gut read.
Randuir - Considering the push to lynch Rand D1, and again D2, I feel like Rand is probably village. I still have my doubts, tbh, but there's much better leads to follow for now.
Crimsn - Did participate in the last minute vote switch to Jondesu, but she's seemed villager-y to me, so I don't really hold it against her.
Dalinar - I remember getting a village vibe from his posts. It's not a strong read, so I'd have to review his posts before I'd defend him from a lynch or something.

Infiltrator:

Flash - not much of a read, but I am still leaning elim.
Asterion - I really should look over his posts again, and probably will once I get to analyzing. For now though, he's still in the elim column.
Stick - Bad read early, and she voted Jon over Yitzi D1.

Neutrals:

Stink
Wilson
Orlok
Joe

The Unknown:

Cloudjumper - No idea.
Shqueeves - No idea. Said he'd be inactive until...about 4 days from now I think.
PK - Leaning slightly elim, but I really don't know why, so I'm keeping him here.
Striker - Aman seems to suspect him, but I didn't pay enough attention to really form an opinion.
Elenion - No idea.
Araris - Of course, no idea.
Ecthelion - No idea.
Drake - Hmm, I think I read one of his posts as village-ish, so I guess I'm leaning slightly village. Can't recall which post that was though.
Rae - Kind of leaning village, but it's a really weak read.
Elbereth - No idea.

And that's it. Some of these may change once I do a readthrough or specific player analysis'(whichever I feel like doing ). I'll probably focus on Flash, Asterion, and Stick first, and then move on to the players I have no read on. I know there's a lot, but I honestly don't remember much of those players.

[DeTess she/her]

Just finished going through @_Stick_'s posts (there's 53 of them, in case anyone was wondering).

Let's start with the conclusion: despite doing some odd things, the amount of work that Stick seems to be putting in reading up on people and doing analysis makes me think of her as village. She also properly shot down the argument that lynching either Aman or me would give clarity about the other's alignment, which was in part being used to justify those two lynches, which also makes me lean village. She did give an adequate reasoning for her planned vote on me which would have broken the tie in Yitzi's favor as well.

That having been said, I would like to point out Stick said this(them being STINK and straw):

Quote

TheMightyLopen, I think I'd try to get one of them lynched were I an elim 

but she's also made at least three votes in which she cast some suspicion at either stick or straw during D1., though she never voted on either iirc.

She's also stated twice that the elims were very likely to block a D1 lynch of an elim, because they can get away with it. lastly, she made this comment during N1:

Quote

Inb4 troll elims kill a neutral instead 

So, though I'm leaning village on Stick, I do wonder if she's got some kind of latent psychic powers, and will be keeping a eye on her.

Edited July 1, 2017 by randuir

[Stick. she/her]

Aster's Posts:

1) Suspicious of the amount of PMs. Most players were. NAI.

2) Will not vote Straw/Stink over someone more suspicious, and will hold his vote until something better comes up. NAI.

3) Elim!Rand wouldve picked a better time to vote on Joe and doesnt think that Elim!Rand would try to swing neutrals against the village. I agree about the timing of his vote. Village read.

4) Votes on Straw because voting on Rand while he wasn't there to defend himself is elim-y. There were others that voted on Rand, too. But I guess it makes sense to vote Straw when this gets added to the PMs thing. Reasonable. Slight village read.

5) Rand voting on a neutral is bad for his team if he's evil. See post 3.

6) Agrees that lynch on Jond was bad. This was N1, i.e when Jond's alignment was out. Of course the lynch wasnt good :P. NAI.

7, 8) Wants the cipher name, talks about cipher. Nothing except BR and him *probably* arent elims together. NAI.

9) Realises there's only one role with 13 letters+a space. Parole Officer? Though Yitzi's post about the key being nonsense in this case means that this probably isnt BR's role. NAI.

10) Doesnt know BR's role. NAI.

11) Votes on Rand and agrees with Yitzi on the Aman/Rand/Cloud situation, but is leaning village on Aman. D1 defense of Rand makes me lean elim.

12, 13) Feels like D1 last second lynch target switch was Rand's elim teammates trying to save him. Doesn't consider Yitzi or Straw. Elim read.

14) D1 CFD indicates Rand's elim-ness. Switched vote from Rand [bc this wasnt going anywhere] to Aman because lynching village!aman would be better than letting elim!aman live, right now and if he isnt evil it would make Rand less suspicious. Elim read.

15) Switches vote back to Rand. D1 CFD was probably elim!rand's teammates saving Rand. Again, doesnt consider other possibilites. Leaning elim.

16) Admits that it's suspicious that he sided with neutrals after elims made adeal with hem. Vote switch to Yitzi bc D1 CFD, claims seeker [straw didnt burnt any metal], reads on a few players. Elim reads: Yitzi, Flash, Len. Town reads: Cloud, Dalinar, Crimsn, Arin. Not sure/Neutral: Orlok, Seonid, Araris, Rand, Stink, Aman. Said Yitzi was D1 CFD prime suspect. Weird how he suddenly takes this into account, and isnt that suspicious of Rand anymore. Slight elim read.

17) Link to Wilson's comment about Aman's playstyle. NAI.

18) Points out that he voted on Yitzi when there were only 3 votes on him. imo, 3 votes is a pretty decent number. 

19) Asks Stink if he's neutral. NAI.

20) Comments on how many times he switched his votes this turn. NAI.

21, 22, 23) NAI

Overall: Makes me lean elim. Making mental note to look at Straw's posts, too. 

2 hours ago, randuir said:

but she's also made at least three votes in which she cast some suspicion at either stick or straw during D1., though she never voted on either iirc.

I think I said this before, but part of why I didnt vote on either was because we wouldnt haven gotten much info from their lynches.

2 hours ago, randuir said:

She's also stated twice that the elims were very likely to block a D1 lynch of an elim, because they can get away with it. lastly, she made this comment during N1:

Quote

Inb4 troll elims kill a neutral instead 

So, though I'm leaning village on Stick, I do wonder if she's got some kind of latent psychic powers, and will be keeping a eye on her.

Wow I forgot I said that XD I...dont really know what to say. The elims tageting a neutral really seemed like a bizarre move on their part. Elim!stick *probably* wouldnt have said that if she planned on killing a neutral, I think :P Or maybe she would have, exactly so that she could say that she wouldnt have. :thonk:

Or maybe I do have psychic powers 

[Steeldancer he/him]

And I'm back... and I didn't miss much. Thank goodness we actually got an elim. Can we go back and see any suspicious behaviors, or anyone in association with yitzi worth making dead? Also I trust stick right now. I'll probably need to go back myself and see what yitzi being Elim does to my notes and stuff...