LG110, Day 1-D: The Final Day (Inverted)

[Haelbarde he/him]

I do think that, looking back at Wonko's colour coded team spreads from the end of D3-C, I would be more inclined to believe Mist is village, and focus on just Coco/Twin in that last slot. 

In a Burnt / Doc / Stick world, the weirdest execution to me is Loop 2 Day 3:

Quote

• (3) Stick: coco, Doc, Burnt, 
• (3) coco: Wahrheit, Mistfallen, Ashbringer,
• (1) Mistfallen: Stick, 

But I want to dig through it in a bit more detail to try and makes sense of things.

Multiple people claimed Blast Mask the night before, and just before the turn ended, Archer claimed Bremn and volunteers to target Araris to set off the Bomb Mask. This probably doesn't affect the elim's night kill of Drake, but could well affect their plans for D3/N3.

The dead are are TJ, Wonko, Drake, Divergent, leaving 12 players alive. Blast Maks presumably happens, so that'll leave 10 players. The execution in mandatory, so we're ending the loop with 8 or 9 players. Based on Burnt / <Doc/Hael> / <Stick/Drake> / <Mist/Coco/Twin>, there is only one player who could be a dead elim.

The possible outcomes then are: 

• 4:4
• 5:4
• 5:3
• 6:3

(Note: 6:2 and 7:2 are village wins)

All scenarios are an elim victory. So the elims have some options, because we will be able to tell that there will be two pools:

• 0-1 elims in the dead
• 3-4 elims in the survivors

There's a higher chance of executing an elim at random if they all survive, and even with the possiblity of an elim in the dead, I don't think it's hard to predict that thread would likely choose to focus on the survivors. So there's a good reason to ensure that the loop ends with 1 dead eliminator. 

The question is, did the elims night kill e!Drake before knowing that they were going to be winning the round with some amount of certainty? It feels unlikely, though possibly still is worth investigating, but I'll worry about that later.

What seems more likely is that Drake was a normal kill, and they are going into Day 3 wanting to have an elim die by the end of loop. So either they let/make the execution hit an elim, or they night kill one. I'd argue that the night kill would be the option that seems the most obvious, so I think it's reasonable to expect they might try confuse things by executing an elim instead. Plus, they ended up night killing one of the confirmed villagers, so we know they definitely didn't take that scenario.

So with all that in mind, what does the Day 3 execution look like if the elims might be angling to get one of them killed?

About halfway through the cycle this is the state of votes:

Quote

Stick (0): Archer{1}, Mist{1}
Archer (1): Ash{1}
Coco (3): Wahr{1}, Doc{1}, Mist{2}
Twin (1): Archer{2}

Though there were some early votes on Stick, after Ash communicated the dead didn't care for her death, they came off, and instead we settle on a Coco execution.

About 13 hours before the end of cycle Stick throws a vote on Mist.
About 9 hours before the end of cycle, Araris votes on Stick.
About 8 hours before the end of cycle, Coco puts a vote on Stick rather than Mist or Twin.
About 5 hours before the end of cycle, Ashbringer shifts from Archer to Coco.

Quote

Stick (2): Archer{1}, Mist{1}, Araris{1}, Coco{1}
Archer (0): Ash{1}
Coco (4): Wahr{1}, Doc{1}, Mist{2}, Ash{2}
Twin (1): Archer{2}
Mist (1): Stick{1}

10 minutes later, Doc shifts to Stick, tying up Coco and Stick (which presumably rupee estimates would have put Stick on the chopping block).

Hours later, 10 minutes before end of cycle, Burnt bumps Stick to 4 votes,
Then 2 minutes before end of cycle, Archer shifts from Twin to Stick, putting Stick on 5.

The final tally is:

Quote

Stick (5): Archer{1}, Mist{1}, Araris{1}, Coco{1}, Doc{2}, Burnt{1}, Archer{3}
Archer (0): Ash{1}
Coco (3): Wahr{1}, Doc{1}, Mist{2}, Ash{2}
Twin (0): Archer{2}
Mist (1): Stick{1}

The resultant vote tally at the start of Night 3 was

Quote

• (3) Stick: coco, Doc, Burnt, 
• (3) coco: Wahrheit, Mistfallen, Ashbringer,
• (1) Mistfallen: Stick, 

With Araris and Archer's votes missing as a result of dying. I'm unclear whether they knew their votes wouldn't count.

It would mean in practice we had Coco on 4, Stick on 1 (Coco's vote), before Doc and Burnt are the last people to act, changing Coco/Stick to a tied 3 votes each, where the fewest rupees held wins. 

Does this help any? I don't know. It saved Coco and killed Stick. 

If Drake was evil, they would want to avoid killing another elim, so e!Drake is paired with e!Coco.

If Drake was village, they could reasonably want to have an elim die. In this world, v!Coco, e!Stick.

So at least for me, I think the two possible worlds are:

• Burnt / Doc / Stick / Twin
• Burnt / Doc / Drake / Coco

And I would lean towards the first.

Edited March 18 by Haelbarde
Formatting

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Just now, Mistfallen Soldier said:

I’ll be honest, I want to trust doc.

I don't! Doc is clearly evil imo, and Hael is clearly village.

I was village reading Heal and suspecting Doc even before I died. Everything that happened after has only strengthened both views for me.

Tell you what. I'll work on writing up the case for why my elim team is correct. You do the same for yours. We'll see who convinces the other.

In the meantime, we have 2 elims we both agree on voting out, so we have some time to deliberate about the third.

2 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

How do you feel about going Burnt, then Stick, and then Coco

Apologies, but I do not agree to that. We must execute 3 elims. In my estimation, that's probably only 2.

I believe Burnt and Stick should be voted out, but that third vote we are probably going to disagree on.

9 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

In a Burnt / Doc / Stick world, the weirdest execution to me is Loop 2 Day 3:

Quote

• (3) Stick: coco, Doc, Burnt, 
• (3) coco: Wahrheit, Mistfallen, Ashbringer,
• (1) Mistfallen: Stick, 

 

If we believe elims NKing teammates is ever a reasonable strategy in this setup, then I don't see why we should believe that elims proactively voting for teammates isn't.

And if you're going to vote each other, Day 3 is a good day to do it.

Or to put it another way, if you're going into a Day 3 with zero teammates in the dead doc, why wouldn't you do it? You're already guaranteed to win the loop. At that point, sowing confusion and creating distance between teammates is really the only meaningful thing your vote can do.

Besides, if you are convinced that Burnt and Stick are both evil, then that pair has already voted each other proactively. That's hard evidence that this elim team had more appetite for it than you'd expect in most normal games. Is it really that hard to countenance E!Doc doing the same thing?

[Myst He/Him]

1 minute ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I don't! Doc is clearly evil imo, and Hael is clearly village.

I was village reading Heal and suspecting Doc even before I died. Everything that happened after has only strengthened both views for me.

Tell you what. I'll work on writing up the case for why my elim team is correct. You do the same for yours. We'll see who convinces the other.

In the meantime, we have 2 elims we both agree on voting out, so we have some time to deliberate about the third.

Apologies, but I do not agree to that. We must execute 3 elims. In my estimation, that's probably only 2.

I believe Burnt and Stick should be voted out, but that third vote we are probably going to disagree on.

Yeah, we’ll probably disagree on that third. Till then it’ll just be us trying to convince each other.

Alright. The Elim team I believe happening is Burnt/Stick/Hael/Coco

First off. Burnt: fairly easy one. Hasn’t really denied it, I don’t think I need to explain this one.

Stick:

First off, we have a Don Gero claim from Drake. And we don’t have a counter-claim. I believe that Drake had Don Gero due to knowing Archer was Postmaster. I don’t think I need to go into this one either as I’m talking to Drake

Hael.

This is based on Doc’s Mask of Truth claim. Which requires an V!Doc.

First off, he shared who PMed who loop one and volunteered that information. He did not need to do that, and since Wonko(the loop 2 postmaster) got NKed, we wouldn’t have discovered that was possible till loop 3(if a Elim didn’t get it)

Second, his activity loop 3 matches what he was doing and indicates knowing exactly what would happen D3(something he could not have known, Elim or not). Basically, he gave an excuse for not going for Stone. Which isn’t alignment indicative, either side would do that if they could get a silver mask.

However, He PMed Wahr and TUM, and Ash(but Ash died so we don’t care about that). That means that this had foresight(not exactly alignment indicative but it makes is less likely as Elim) Using that PM, he set up a way to communicate with Wahr and TUM and used that to say Hael was village before Hael claimed Captains, meaning he had no way of knowing Stick was outed, or anything like that. He committed to Hael being Elim before knowing anything so it couldn’t have been reacting to him calling out Stick. Further proof to me that Doc’s not Elim

Also, we know he had the rupees for this. He also knew that we would block him during the night for it. Revealing that he had a silver mask, basically shuts down any use of having a rez. The only situation where that would be even remotely worth it is if we had 3 Elims already dead by the end of D2(since N2 was when Wahr and TUM received their PMs from him claiming he had the mask) which is only possible if you are Elim, which we both agree you’re not.

Fake revealing a scan on Hael would’ve cost them the loop, basically. So unless you’re saying that you’re the Elim and they couldn’t have resurrected an Elim to win, Doc threw the loop right then and there, as soon as he PMed Wahr and TUM. I don’t think I need to point out what a monumentally stupid plan that would be.

however, we still need to explain Hael representing the Dead doc accurately. My simple solution, he knew they were going to lose. D3, we went in with the plan to exe Hael. But you claimed that Stick was Elim, and if Hael didn’t share that info, that was pretty much outing two Elims instead of one if he shared the information. So he said that Drake knew Stick NKed him. Sacrificing Stick, but ensuring his own safety, until Doc spoke up, that is. They were going to lose if we exed Hael, so he sacrificed stick, another Elim, making it so we still won, but giving Hael a lot of village cred.

Then they could’ve gone into loop three, letting us exe Coco/Twin and Stick, and NKing burnt, once again letting us win the loop, but since Hael had been so instrumental in getting Stick exed, non of us would’ve voted him, causing us to lose the tiebreaker and the overall game.

Coco: I’d go into coco, but I’m not as sure anymore, I’ve seen some good arguments for Twin lately, and so I’m gonna have to revisit my opinions on Coco. So I’ll leave it at that for now and see if a Burnt/Stick/Hael/Twin team is even possible 

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

 Burnt. Obviously.

 

2 hours ago, Archer said:

Burnt 

I'd love to hear the dead doc's thoughts, but I'm looking at Hael, then Drake afterwards. I'm open to considering anyone we exed last loop, but honestly think we have better odds betting on this explanation. 

Really? Why? In your opinion, why did a Burnt/Hael/Drake/<Coco|Twin|Mist> team surrender the game?

 

1 hour ago, Haelbarde said:

The only person I am 100% certain of is evil in those pairs is Doc. Stick was certainly the better decision than me last round, and I would tend to believe Drake but I cannot be certain. I admit to remaining confused about Coco, Mist and Twin. Mist has had some very weird interactions, particularly at the end of last cycle, while looking at past executions Coco doesn't necessarily look great. 

Mist seems extremely unlikely to me, given the voluntary surrender. If the elim team contains Mist, we would have lost the Loop and thus the game if they'd just NKed someone.

 

1 hour ago, Haelbarde said:

I guess I'd be particularly interested in where the Bunny, Scents, and Romani masks ended up last loop, as I don't think there were claims in thread regarding that, and they were definitely purchased D1.

I had Romani. The plan was to get myself exed on D3 and reduce us to 5 total dead, meaning we only needed one dead elim. But Aman eventually came down on the side that that wouldn't work, and I would have been counted as dead for the Boss Mask.

 

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

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• Next Page

Coliver's knees were starting to buckle.

It wasn't the revelation of the Dreamers. She'd put that together. If not motivations, that someone present here had arranged for the events of these past few three days. She'd put that together as soon as she'd come back to life from having her heart ripped from her chest the second time.

No, something else was becoming apparent. She'd lived. She'd survived... and yet she wasn't sure she'd deserved it.

Because Rashe died, and some last sliver of Coliver broke with it. She'd survived. Stood on the sidelines. When the Zora were in danger... her people... she stood back. It made sense. Heroically throwing herself into a swarm of ghosts that had just decapitated the Happy Mask Salesman who had led them here would have been stupid, right? That wouldn't leave her alive very long. But then again, neither would throwing herself in between Ap and a barrage of light arrows. It had been Rashe and the other spirits, somehow, who had stopped the pirates. He'd been looking at her. Why had he been looking at her?

She hadn't died. She hadn't found something revolutionary, she hadn't saved Ap... and they'd won the Mask. Without her. Coliver didn't even think she'd heard the song that night; Makazi didn't seem to remember. 

Rashe told her to live. Coliver didn't think what she'd done was what he meant.

She couldn't do this again.

She couldn't.

---

Rashe's knees did not buckle.

It wasn't the death. He was used to that. Even dying and having what spirit he had act as a strange anti-Pirate defense mechanism wasn't... entirely unheard of. But this... this room, this accusation, this acquisition...

That he knew. That he knew far too well.

Rashe stretched out his hand, and his glowing sword faded into existence.

"I do hope I won't need this. But," he paused. "It does seem the proper time?"

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• Next Page

Hey, how do you do this "Next Page"/"Previous Page" thing? It's super cool, and is probably useful for someone who tends to write way to many words per post.  

 

31 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

I’ll be honest, I want to trust doc. Everything he’s said explaining his actions makes sense to me, even now.

Which makes me want to avoid the question entirely. 
How do you feel about going Burnt, then Stick, and then Coco

Having a sensible explanation for your actions doesn't make you village. Doc's actions also make perfect sense in an e!Doc world. I'm not saying Doc HAS to be an elim, but I think you might be putting too much weight on the fact that v!Doc "makes sense". The question we should be asking is, does e!Doc NOT make sense?

That said, I agree with Stick over Drake, so that's fine for now, at least. I'm less committed to Coco over Twin, but that's the last exe, so I have time to review before then.

 

36 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Apologies, but I do not agree to that. We must execute 3 elims. In my estimation, that's probably only 2.

I believe Burnt and Stick should be voted out, but that third vote we are probably going to disagree on.

I know you said you're doing a full writeup on your preferred team, but can you give me a sneak preview on why you're so confident in e!Twin over e!Coco? That pair seems hazy at best to me.

 

13 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

First off, he shared who PMed who loop one and volunteered that information. He did not need to do that, and since Wonko(the loop 2 postmaster) got NKed, we wouldn’t have discovered that was possible till loop 3(if a Elim didn’t get it)

In point of fact, he only volunteered that the list existed. It was only after I pushed for it that he actually produced the list. I noted it as odd at the time but mostly ignored it.

20 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

however, we still need to explain Hael representing the Dead doc accurately. My simple solution, he knew they were going to lose. D3, we went in with the plan to exe Hael. But you claimed that Stick was Elim, and if Hael didn’t share that info, that was pretty much outing two Elims instead of one if he shared the information. So he said that Drake knew Stick NKed him. Sacrificing Stick, but ensuring his own safety, until Doc spoke up, that is. They were going to lose if we exed Hael, so he sacrificed stick, another Elim, making it so we still won, but giving Hael a lot of village cred.

Then they could’ve gone into loop three, letting us exe Coco/Twin and Stick, and NKing burnt, once again letting us win the loop, but since Hael had been so instrumental in getting Stick exed, non of us would’ve voted him, causing us to lose the tiebreaker and the overall game.

According to this hypothesis, absolutely everything went to plan for the elims D3C; they wanted Stick exed. Why, then, the sudden surrender? You think Doc's mask claim is THAT damning, that the entire elim team agreed it was impossible to win anymore because of it?

[Myst He/Him]

4 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

 Burnt. Obviously.

 

Really? Why? In your opinion, why did a Burnt/Hael/Drake/<Coco|Twin|Mist> team surrender the game?

 

Mist seems extremely unlikely to me, given the voluntary surrender. If the elim team contains Mist, we would have lost the Loop and thus the game if they'd just NKed someone.

 

I had Romani. The plan was to get myself exed on D3 and reduce us to 5 total dead, meaning we only needed one dead elim. But Aman eventually came down on the side that that wouldn't work, and I would have been counted as dead for the Boss Mask.

 

Hey, how do you do this "Next Page"/"Previous Page" thing? It's super cool, and is probably useful for someone who tends to write way to many words per post.  

 

Having a sensible explanation for your actions doesn't make you village. Doc's actions also make perfect sense in an e!Doc world. I'm not saying Doc HAS to be an elim, but I think you might be putting too much weight on the fact that v!Doc "makes sense". The question we should be asking is, does e!Doc NOT make sense?

That said, I agree with Stick over Drake, so that's fine for now, at least. I'm less committed to Coco over Twin, but that's the last exe, so I have time to review before then.

 

I know you said you're doing a full writeup on your preferred team, but can you give me a sneak preview on why you're so confident in e!Twin over e!Coco? That pair seems hazy at best to me.

 

In point of fact, he only volunteered that the list existed. It was only after I pushed for it that he actually produced the list. I noted it as odd at the time but mostly ignored it.

According to this hypothesis, absolutely everything went to plan for the elims D3C; they wanted Stick exed. Why, then, the sudden surrender? You think Doc's mask claim is THAT damning, that the entire elim team agreed it was impossible to win anymore because of it?

Pretty much yeah, everything was going their way till Doc claimed. Stick would’ve been exed and they would’ve been able to win.

Doc claiming Hael was Elim ruins that. My theorizing requires Hael to not be exed at the tiebreaker. Doc completely undermines that 

I just established how we would exe the same people loop 4 as loop 3. Resulting in us winning the loop, if they didn’t NK burnt, we’d just vote Burnt for the Tiebreaker, but suddenly we had reasons to vote Hael, and they decided that they we’re screwed, and they might as well concede 

Edit: you’re right about me putting a bit too much faith into Doc’s actions “making sense” but I will say I don’t think his actions make sense as an Elim. Unless you think he purposely threw the loop? And the game?

Edited March 18 by Mistfallen Soldier

[Amanuensis he/him]

Players will be executed and flipped upon reaching 10 votes.
 

• (7/10) Burnt: Mistfallen, Archer, Hael, Divergent, TUM, Drake, Wonko, 
• (1/10) Mistfallen: Burnt, 

However, I am heading to bed so you might not see a flip until the morning if 10 is reached.

[Through the living Wahr He/Him]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Elims essentially surrendered, so it's a Village victory either way. I mostly figured this would be a more fun way to end things rather than just flipping everyone now. This is really just a minigame to decide if the village wins extra  giving y'all an out removes the stakes imo

If we have won either way then thats good, otherwise I would have been very unhappy that the elims get a better shot at Victor After already surrendering.

So Burnt is obvious, also I dont think that the question of e!Doc/Hael is that important, more important I would say is the Question v!Coco/Twin

I am fairly certain of e!Stick because if its not e!Stick you would have e!Heal and e!Drake and I cannot See why they would surrender After D3C was going exactly like planned they loose it on purpose and throw us of for loop 4, ensuring they win it and we loose the Game.

I personally would lean e!Burnt/Stick/Coco/Doc we exed Coco Being reasonably sure that she is elim to prevent her from getting Stone. 

With the recent Developments I do not trust Doc anymore, I have to note that I roleblocked him and there was no NK this Cycle (could simply be the elims saw no point in submitting one when they were going to surrender anyway or I actually blocked it.

[|TJ| he/him]

I'll catch up later but Burnt and yeah e!Stick -> v!Coco so it's e!Doc 

Burnt/Twin/Stick/Doc 

[Myst He/Him]

6 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I'll catch up later but Burnt and yeah e!Stick -> v!Coco so it's e!Doc 

Burnt/Twin/Stick/Doc 

So… why did doc throw the loop then?

[|TJ| he/him]

12 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

So… why did doc throw the loop then?

Doc hoped we'd vote out Hael and they'd win the Loop and the game. 

[Myst He/Him]

14 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Doc hoped we'd vote out Hael and they'd win the Loop and the game. 

That doesn’t make sense though, he never once advocated for or against voting stick(that I remember) just voting Hael.

Furthermore, your proposed Elim team is Burnt/Twin/Stick/Doc, yet only Doc voted for Hael. Burnt’s didn’t matter, but Stick voted herself, which doesn’t match your Elim team as supposedly she’d vote Hael

plus, here, if she kept her vote on Hael, Hael would’ve had the most votes

Edit: which supports my theory of E!Hael and E!Stick trying to sacrifice Stick so Hael has village cred for loop 4

Edited March 18 by Mistfallen Soldier

[|TJ| he/him]

4 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

plus, here, if she kept her vote on Hael, Hael would’ve had the most votes

Uhhhh she who? As far as I can see, both Stick and Doc are voting Hael. 

[Divergent He/Him]

1 hour ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Alright. The Elim team I believe happening is Burnt/Stick/Hael/Coco

This was what I was thinking the previous cycle, but I'll prob re-eval if that's the team that makes the most sense

 

[|TJ| he/him]

7 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Edit: which supports my theory of E!Hael and E!Stick trying to sacrifice Stick so Hael has village cred for loop 4

I think they were just trying to win the game in Loop 3 itself. There were no contingencies. E!Hael cannot sacrifice e!Stick deliberately as the movement came from Drake. 

And I don't think Coco/Stick works at all. 

[Myst He/Him]

8 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Uhhhh she who? As far as I can see, both Stick and Doc are voting Hael. 

It seems I linked the wrong post, my bad. But here: 

the VC shows Stick voting for herself.

Edit: in response to your post right before this one:

Yeah, I think he had to. If he didn’t share. We were going to Vote him out because of Ash, and then we’d hear from Drake loop 5 and know both Hael and Stick are Elims. I don’t think this was deliberate planning, just the best thing out of what they had.

Which is why I’m looking into whether Burnt/Hael/Stick/Twin is viable 

 

Edited March 18 by Mistfallen Soldier

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

Im just going to point out, I failed to max my rupees last night, broke my streak, and now im set to die.

 

I think yall should listen to the owl.

[Myst He/Him]

Just now, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Im just going to point out, I failed to max my rupees last night, broke my streak, and now im set to die.

 

I think yall should listen to the owl.

Ah, that’s sad, Aman didn’t rupee PMs tonight, otherwise I’d be at 22 right now. But it seems I need to keep my streak up then. Though considering I’m 90% sure I have the most posts on every single thread. I’m actually curious about whether I am now, I’m gonna go check. Also. Before you die, mind sharing the names of your teammates?

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

1 minute ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Ah, that’s sad, Aman didn’t rupee PMs tonight, otherwise I’d be at 22 right now. But it seems I need to keep my streak up then. Though considering I’m 90% sure I have the most posts on every single thread. I’m actually curious about whether I am now, I’m gonna go check. Also. Before you die, mind sharing the names of your teammates?

Now that's just spoiling the fun! You can solve this! I believe in you! 

 

Ngl i did have fun with meeting rupee max. Was a fun challenge, even if I should've probably stressed and focused more about getting you killed than making sure I finished my rp

 

Also @Ashbringer apologies i dont think cindra is the best choice to teach cooking, as much as shed have loved that but i hope makazi finds a responsible person to teach baking that is a little less problematic

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I’m in the “elims were trying to win L3” camp. That’s how they ended up in what they felt to be an unwinnable scenario. If they were playing for L4 then we’d probably be playing L4 right now. Burnt/Doc/Stick/Twinstorm seems reasonable to me. I’m holding off on my vote so that we don’t accelerate the executions, but if I see folks wanting to move forward in the morning I’ll go ahead and vote for Burnt.

[|TJ| he/him]

33 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

the VC shows Stick voting for herself.

 

HUH. The VC seems to be the result of a Keaton Mask. 

On 3/17/2026 at 3:14 AM, Amanuensis said:

• (8) Stick: Hael, TUM, Wonko, Araris, TJ, Divergent, Archer, Stick, 
• (3) Hael:  Doc, Wahrheit, Mistfallen, 

Aman, confirmation that this VC is correct, please? 

Because if you go back and check, Stick never votes on herself. 

[Myst He/Him]

Alright, my post counts each day, with Rankings. I got max rupees each loop though. Cause I want to know how much I’ve continued here

Spoiler

D1A Second with 14, Aman beat me by 6

N1A Second with 11, Aman beat me by 2

D2A First with 24

N2A Tied with Wonko for second. 7 Posts, Dive beat me by 1

D3A First with 15

N3A Second with 10, Aman beat me by 3

D1B First with 36

N1B First with 13

D2B First with 15

N2B Second with 6. Ash and Coco tied with 7

D3B First with 16

N3B 10 posts (There wasn’t a summary so idk if I got first or not)

D1C First with 40

N1C First with 37

D2C First with 26

N2C Second with 13, Aman beat me by 3

D3C First with 42

N3C 9 posts, once again no summary

Well… that’s a lot. I’ve posted a total of 344 time for this game(not including this thread) I think it’s safe to say I’m winning 

For more data that doesn’t help us but I find interesting. There’s been a total of 1,851 posts in total(including Aman)(but not counting this thread) which means I’ve posted about 18.5% of all posts in this game

Edited March 18 by Mistfallen Soldier

[Ashbringer he/him]

1 hour ago, Wonko the Sane said:

Hey, how do you do this "Next Page"/"Previous Page" thing? It's super cool, and is probably useful for someone who tends to write way to many words per post.  

 

The third button ("Page") on the left! I think its functionality changed at some point, it used to make a somewhat nonfunctional line as a page break, but now it does this, which is kinda handy... especially if you're me and have technically 5 RP characters at once 

22 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Ngl i did have fun with meeting rupee max. Was a fun challenge, even if I should've probably stressed and focused more about getting you killed than making sure I finished my rp

 

Also @Ashbringer apologies i dont think cindra is the best choice to teach cooking, as much as shed have loved that but i hope makazi finds a responsible person to teach baking that is a little less problematic

Oi, Dingo here, RP is definitely more important than winning Elim Games

And I was wondering if you got that part about Makazi!

... I was also wondering why you NKed me N1 and then pinged me randomly D2 

 

anyway, speaking of Dingo

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

When this loop began, Cindra had laid in her bed a few extra minutes. Her hands felt her face, tracing the edge where the mask had sat. She closed her eyes with a long exhale. She had heard the conversations before, she knew her actions with this mask had betrayed the trust of the others. She would have no influence today, this she was sure of. And she would not be able to afford the same security she had obtained with the mask. Another long exhale. She stood. She took her time to tidy her space and make herself a tea with the careful touch and finality of someone who felt in her heart that she would not be returning here. Her fingertips rested on her treasured music books piled around her room, a soft smile on her face. She picked up her flute, and left.

In the Happy Masks Salesman's shop she stood quietly. After his declaration she was not surprised to see everyone's eyes turn to her. At least they can see me now. She thought with mild amusement.

There was one set of eyes not on her. Thistle.... Her heart ached with a pang of regret as her gaze lingered on her friend. Those flower crowns were never going to happen. This thought hit Cindra with such a strong feeling of grief. The thought held such finality. There had been so many extra chances they'd all recieved over these days.

She took out her flute and gently placed it down on the counter.

Cindra would have no more chances.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

17 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

First off, he shared who PMed who loop one and volunteered that information. He did not need to do that, and since Wonko(the loop 2 postmaster) got NKed, we wouldn’t have discovered that was possible till loop 3(if a Elim didn’t get it)

So he's village because he did something he didn't have to do? I'm sorry but I don't think that distinguishes elims from villagers.

Can you spell out to me how evil Doc sharing this information harms the elims, or otherwise doesn't make sense? Bear in mind that 1) Doc could slip in some fake PM connections between elims to strengthen his teams overall position, 2) he gets to appear helpful by sharing the information, and 3) he was asked to share the information and it would look a little odd if he refused.

32 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Second, his activity loop 3 matches what he was doing and indicates knowing exactly what would happen D3(something he could not have known, Elim or not). Basically, he gave an excuse for not going for Stone. Which isn’t alignment indicative, either side would do that if they could get a silver mask.

However, He PMed Wahr and TUM, and Ash(but Ash died so we don’t care about that). That means that this had foresight(not exactly alignment indicative but it makes is less likely as Elim) Using that PM, he set up a way to communicate with Wahr and TUM and used that to say Hael was village before Hael claimed Captains, meaning he had no way of knowing Stick was outed, or anything like that. He committed to Hael being Elim before knowing anything so it couldn’t have been reacting to him calling out Stick. Further proof to me that Doc’s not Elim

Is it not alignment indicative, or is it less likely to come from an elim? Pick a lane

The village doesn't have a monopoly on foresight. The fact that the operation was planned ahead has very little bearing on Doc's alignment as far as I'm concerned.

I do agree that the foresight means Doc's claim cannot have been originally invented to contest Hael's scan result against Stick.

 

In any case, I certainly don't think we can assert that elims would inherently be less likely to claim scan results compared to villagers. Burnt already did exactly that. Furthermore, such an elim playstyle is heavily encouraged in this ruleset, since there are no flips.

The existence of the claim does not seem especially indicative to me. It is the contents of the claim that I take exception with.

All the scan establishes is that one of Doc or Hael must be evil. The scan itself does not tell us which. We must use other evidence to sort that out.

 

I will beat this dead horse for as long as it takes. Even if y'all have forgotten about the first loop, or you've decided it's no longer relevant for some reason, Hael looks quite village from Day 3A. The elims committed hard to pushing for a win on that loop, then absolutely everyone shrugged when Hael was up for execution for most of the day. I cannot explain this to a satisfactory degree if Hael is evil. You are welcome to try and explain it yourself. If you can explain the events of that day to my satisfaction, that would be reasonably convincing to me. Just telling me that I'm putting too much faith in this inference is not convincing to me though  That's just brushing aside evidence that doesn't agree with your worldview and I don't think that's the road to enlightenment. As it stands, I genuinely believe that this alone is a sufficient reason to execute Doc over Hael and not lose any sleep about it.

On the other hand, I do not think any such reason exists to village read Doc, which is actually remarkable considering he's been more active than Hael and has been quite strategic with his rupees earnings. You would expect him to be commensurately more readable as village, but he isn't, as far as I'm concerned. I was already converging on Doc as an elim just from the suspect pool of 6, because I think there are stronger reasons to village read other members. A pool of just <Hael, Doc> makes the job easier.

It has also been stated multiple times throughout the game that the elims must have good thread control. While Hael did step up yesterday, I think it's fair to say he did it out of necessity, not because he wanted to be in that position. I believe Doc fits the thread controller profile better than Hael.

I also personally believe the elims have been very intentional with managing rupees. Burnt's play with the Stone Mask supports this. The fact that they mostly avoided killing confirmed players during the second loop also supports this: it's strictly worse for the elims in terms of what information is revealed, but it's better for them in terms of controlling the rupees. However, there's no point in denying rupees to some dead villagers unless the elims are wealthy enough to capitalize on it. Again, Hael doesn't really fit that profile, while Doc does.

There is also the fact that Hael relayed all of my information truthfully, but more on that later.

1 hour ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Also, we know he had the rupees for this.

What does that have to do with his alignment?

I don't even think we do know that, not for sure, but the above question is the important one.

1 hour ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

He also knew that we would block him during the night for it. Revealing that he had a silver mask, basically shuts down any use of having a rez.

I'm not sure he did, when he first made the claim. At the time everyone was voting against Hael. It certainly wasn't obvious to me that popular sentiment would be against Doc, and I think he's hella evil.

More to the point, we've already agreed that Doc's claim was prepared ahead of time, so he had to claim that day regardless. Unless you believe the elims accurately predicted for the roleblock considerations multiple turns in advance. I don't.

2 hours ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Fake revealing a scan on Hael would’ve cost them the loop, basically.

If Hael is village, then it very nearly didn't. Hael very nearly got executed, and that's the opposite of costing them the loop.

I'm absolutely certain on the other hand that revealing a green scan on Hael would cost them the loop. Because the only sane course for the village at that point would be executing Stick, who is evil.

And those were really his only 2 options. Again, he set this up ahead of time. He had promised a scan result on Hael, and he had to deliver.

2 hours ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

however, we still need to explain Hael representing the Dead doc accurately. My simple solution, he knew they were going to lose. D3, we went in with the plan to exe Hael. But you claimed that Stick was Elim, and if Hael didn’t share that info, that was pretty much outing two Elims instead of one if he shared the information. So he said that Drake knew Stick NKed him. Sacrificing Stick, but ensuring his own safety, until Doc spoke up, that is. They were going to lose if we exed Hael, so he sacrificed stick, another Elim, making it so we still won, but giving Hael a lot of village cred.

Maybe, but unless you think there were already 2 dead elims, they could have literally won the entire game by voting off a villager, no need to worry about the next loop. Seems pretty fatalistic to start throwing the loop because you might lose it, when ultimate victory is so close. I don't really think that's the mindset of the elim team that refuses to throw and goes for the win on Loop 1 even though it's riskier. I don't really think that's the mindset of the elim team that comes up with Burnt faking a scan on you in order to aggressively push for an L3 win, either.

And fundamentally, either we think that helping get Stick voted out is legitimately worth village cred, or it isn't. If it's legitimately worth village cred, then Hael legitimately deserves village cred, full stop. You don't get to say "well then Hael must be EVIL, because evils want village cred, so doing villagery things is EVIL." Yes it's possible, but it isn't probable. We have to assume that on average, helping the village is a thing that villagers do more often and more substantially than elims.

[Myst He/Him]

2 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

So he's village because he did something he didn't have to do? I'm sorry but I don't think that distinguishes elims from villagers.

Can you spell out to me how evil Doc sharing this information harms the elims, or otherwise doesn't make sense? Bear in mind that 1) Doc could slip in some fake PM connections between elims to strengthen his teams overall position, 2) he gets to appear helpful by sharing the information, and 3) he was asked to share the information and it would look a little odd if he refused.

10 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Is it not alignment indicative, or is it less likely to come from an elim? Pick a lane

The village doesn't have a monopoly on foresight. The fact that the operation was planned ahead has very little bearing on Doc's alignment as far as I'm concerned.

I do agree that the foresight means Doc's claim cannot have been originally invented to contest Hael's scan result against Stick.

Elims benefit from the village lacking information 

1. he couldn’t have messed with them too much. If he messed with any PM involving a villager, that villager could just call him out on it. That best he could do is make Burnt seem like she PMed Stick instead of another Elim, which doesn’t seem like something to be worried about

2. Yeah, but so does sharing that he had the postman’s hat, I don’t think that this is anything extra

3. he didn’t have to say he had the information, he did that himself, so it wouldn’t have been weird because he would’ve never brought it up.

What he did leans village to me, but I would still say it’s not enough by itself to base anything on, so both, if that makes sense

Your right, the village doesn’t have talk at monopoly, but everything I’ve seen seems to suggest that a Elim Doc would’ve had to guess Hael was going to be a problem D3C, and that he’d have to protect Stick, which we both agree isn’t what’s happening

(I’ll reply to the rest later but my downtime is about to turn on)