LG110, Day 1-D: The Final Day (Inverted)

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

12 hours ago, Wahrheitswächter said:

With the recent Developments I do not trust Doc anymore, I have to note that I roleblocked him and there was no NK this Cycle (could simply be the elims saw no point in submitting one when they were going to surrender anyway or I actually blocked it.

oh I missed that

well okay I agree that doesn't prove Doc is an elim but it's not the greatest look is it

edit: aaaa ninja'd by wahr 

edit2: apparently this is the 100th reply to this thread. congratulations l u c k y w i n n e r

Edited March 18 by DrakeMarshall

[Ashbringer he/him]

Operation Siracha saves the day?

[Myst He/Him]

So… our options for Keaton are me lying, E!Doc not going for a Silver, Or Hael and Stick doing some weird shenanigans. Loop 3 Dead Doc, did Hael claim himself or did Aman write his name in.

[coco.pudding she/they]

1 minute ago, DrakeMarshall said:

oh I missed that

well okay I agree that doesn't prove Doc is an elim but it's not the greatest look is it

Yeah I think that probably means one of three things:

1 - they tried to do another kill. Probably means only one elim died as then they would have won. 
Note: I don’t think this is likely since Aman asked us about the surrender during the night, not after. So they chose to surrender before knowing if the kill went through or not.

2 - they didn’t kill because they knew they were surrendering. 
I do think this is the most likely scenario, for the same reason I don’t think 1 is very likely.

3 - Doc tried to res someone and was blocked. 
Again I don’t think this is likely.

Just now, Mistfallen Soldier said:

So… our options for Keaton are me lying, E!Doc not going for a Silver, Or Hael and Stick doing some weird shenanigans. Loop 3 Dead Doc, did Hael claim himself or did Aman write his name in.

He claimed after I asked. Aman just wrote “captains hat” at the top. 

[Myst He/Him]

1 minute ago, coco.pudding said:

Yeah I think that probably means one of three things:

1 - they tried to do another kill. Probably means only one elim died as then they would have won. 
Note: I don’t think this is likely since Aman asked us about the surrender during the night, not after. So they chose to surrender before knowing if the kill went through or not.

2 - they didn’t kill because they knew they were surrendering. 
I do think this is the most likely scenario, for the same reason I don’t think 1 is very likely.

3 - Doc tried to res someone and was blocked. 
Again I don’t think this is likely.

He claimed after I asked. Aman just wrote “captains hat” at the top. 

Well… I’m obviously of the opinion of Elim shenanigans. (E!Hael and E!Stick coordination) 

What about you, what do you think is more likely? Doc purposely giving up a Silver mask for Keaton, or the shenanigans?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

2 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

So… our options for Keaton are me lying, E!Doc not going for a Silver, Or Hael and Stick doing some weird shenanigans. Loop 3 Dead Doc, did Hael claim himself or did Aman write his name in.

your "I've never been killed" privilege is showing

Aman doesn't confirm the postmaster identity, but let me just say I'm quite certain it was Hael, if that carries any weight for you. We talked quite a bit in that doc.

the mechanics of this game make my head hurt  why do we think anyone bought Keaton during L3? was there a Keaton vote manip?  sorry I'm out of it but I'm fairly sure I understand the game state well enough to know who to vote for

[coco.pudding she/they]

3 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Well… I’m obviously of the opinion of Elim shenanigans. (E!Hael and E!Stick coordination) 

What about you, what do you think is more likely? Doc purposely giving up a Silver mask for Keaton, or the shenanigans?

I’m just not really sure Hael is elim is the only issue.

But I agree it’s weird for Doc (no matter if he’s village or elim) to not go for a silver here. He had the rupees. I did the math, I know he would have had enough. So I just don’t see anyone who has enough rupees for a silver mask not getting it.

Idk man this is very confusing. I think for now we should focus on a target we know is elim (stick) while we try to figure out what’s going on with Doc and Hael.

Just now, DrakeMarshall said:

your "I've never been killed" privilege is showing

Aman doesn't confirm the postmaster identity, but let me just say I'm quite certain it was Hael, if that carries any weight for you. We talked quite a bit in that doc.

the mechanics of this game make my head hurt  why do we think anyone bought Keaton during L3? was there a Keaton vote manip?  sorry I'm out of it but I'm fairly sure I understand the game state well enough to know who to vote for

Yeah Stick’s vote was moved onto herself, and she never changed it in thread so we’re assuming Keaton. 

[Myst He/Him]

Just now, DrakeMarshall said:

your "I've never been killed" privilege is showing

Aman doesn't confirm the postmaster identity, but let me just say I'm quite certain it was Hael, if that carries any weight for you. We talked quite a bit in that doc.

the mechanics of this game make my head hurt  why do we think anyone bought Keaton during L3? was there a Keaton vote manip?  sorry I'm out of it but I'm fairly sure I understand the game state well enough to know who to vote for

There was. Stick’s vote was changed from voting Hael to voting herself.(TJ caught it)

And we assume the Keaton mask person is Elim because no one is claiming it and also because the person who would have would have lied about their mask multiple times already 

Also, “I’ve never been killed” privilege?

[Archer he/him]

39 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

hey do y'all like arcade games

GAMBLING IS ILLEGAL

17 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

l u c k y w i n n e r

ARREST HIM

 

Just for Mistfallen

Spoiler

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Edited March 18 by Archer

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

2 minutes ago, coco.pudding said:

But I agree it’s weird for Doc (no matter if he’s village or elim) to not go for a silver here. He had the rupees. 

unless he bought the Mask of Scents instead of Burnt

why do y'all keep assuming the elims wouldn't just lie about things

4 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Also, “I’ve never been killed” privilege?

yeah because anyone who died knows how the postmaster works

[Myst He/Him]

6 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

unless he bought the Mask of Scents instead of Burnt

why do y'all keep assuming the elims wouldn't just lie about things

Which also doesn’t make sense as he could’ve gone for Silver, and that checks out with his buy pattern for the other loops. Why go for silver only to abandon it the loop before?

And yeah, Elims would lie, which is what Burnt did, (and what I think Hael did) numbers don’t though

Edited March 18 by Mistfallen Soldier

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

4 minutes ago, Archer said:

GAMBLING IS ILLEGAL

ARREST HIM

guess I'm a fugitive now 

[Myst He/Him]

4 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

unless he bought the Mask of Scents instead of Burnt

why do y'all keep assuming the elims wouldn't just lie about things

yeah because anyone who died knows how the postmaster works

What does being Dead have to do with that? 

[coco.pudding she/they]

1 minute ago, DrakeMarshall said:

unless he bought the Mask of Scents instead of Burnt

why do y'all keep assuming the elims wouldn't just lie about things

That is true actually yeah.

Okay so anyway assuming he didn’t buy Scents loop 2 he would have had enough.

Unfortunately we have no way of knowing if he did that or not.

Also, he had probably done the math going into it (he clearly knew he needed max posts during the day) to know how much he would need to either buy it or fake it.

2 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

numbers don’t though

They do though? Because we don’t know what they are and are just assuming based off what we do know? So it’s entirely possible that he bought scents and then just kept up the charade of getting enough posts for a silver this loop when in reality we have no idea if he even bought a mask this loop bc he did it during the night. 

[Stick. she/her]

Oh I didn’t even notice Keaton there, but think I figured out a world where the numbers do add up - working on an in-depth post rn  

[Myst He/Him]

1 minute ago, coco.pudding said:

That is true actually yeah.

Okay so anyway assuming he didn’t buy Scents loop 2 he would have had enough.

Unfortunately we have no way of knowing if he did that or not.

Also, he had probably done the math going into it (he clearly knew he needed max posts during the day) to know how much he would need to either buy it or fake it.

They do though? Because we don’t know what they are and are just assuming based off what we do know? So it’s entirely possible that he bought scents and then just kept up the charade of getting enough posts for a silver this loop when in reality we have no idea if he even bought a mask this loop bc he did it during the night. 

That’s true, but that still doesn’t explain why Doc would not go to a silver despite being able to. If he bought scents, why would he do that instead of getting a silver loop 3?

He could have, but I see no reason for that to be the case. Stick is also a person who could have gotten the scents mask

 

[coco.pudding she/they]

3 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

That’s true, but that still doesn’t explain why Doc would not go to a silver despite being able to. If he bought scents, why would he do that instead of getting a silver loop 3?

He could have, but I see no reason for that to be the case. Stick is also a person who could have gotten the scents mask

 

I do think it’s more likely that Stick had Scents instead, yes.

I’m just trying to come at it from a logic standpoint and figure out all the possibilities. Doc having Scents and/or not actually buying a silver even though he did have the funds is a possibility. Although another issue with that actually is that means a different elim had to have had bunny so he could safely claim that if he didn’t have it.

But I do think it would be weird if he had the funds and did not use them for a silver. You’re right that that doesn’t make sense. The possibility I was bringing up is that he knew how to make it look like he had the funds for it but didn’t actually. 

[Archer he/him]

9 minutes ago, Stick. said:

Oh I didn’t even notice Keaton there, but think I figured out a world where the numbers do add up - working on an in-depth post rn  

It'd be funny if you never follow up on this post 

8 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

That’s true, but that still doesn’t explain why Doc would not go to a silver despite being able to. If he bought scents, why would he do that instead of getting a silver loop 3?

He could have, but I see no reason for that to be the case. Stick is also a person who could have gotten the scents mask

Could be they prioritized the masks that could catch the NK. Could be Doc didn't want to buy a good mask and feel pressured by the village to use it a certain way. 

Aman bothering to correct the rupee count for postmen tipping themselves kind of implies he actually did have 100, but he might have anyway. 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Just now, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Which also doesn’t make sense as he could’ve gone for Silver, and that checks out with his buy pattern for the other loops. Why go for silver only to abandon it the loop before?

And yeah, Elims would lie, which is what Burn did, (and what I think Hael did) numbers don’t though

No, he couldn't. Not if he had previously spent the rupees he'd be using to go for silver on something else.

and can we rly say it's the wrong choice to spend those rupees earlier

I mean sure we know with hindsight bias that Doc would survive long enough to maybe buy silver but Doc certainly didn't know that during the middle of Loop 2

alternatively, Doc lied somewhere else about his finances

people lie about finances in real life and it isn't always obvious

Numbers are every bit as capable of lying as words  I have a billion rupees  Maybe what you mean to say is that math doesn't lie, but math is only as good as the assumptions it rests upon. That's why any seriously fancy math is ridiculously disciplined about explaining which assumptions it uses. I didn't agree with the assumptions people made when trying to calculate Burnt's rupees. I see a lot of the same assumptions being made when it comes to calculating Doc's rupees. Why should I believe the results are any more robust?

I'm a pretty mathy person  I'm not saying any of this because I don't believe in math  I just don't believe in this math.

it doesn't really matter, Doc isn't Al Capone and I don't need to catch him doing tax fraud. Maybe he really is telling the truth about his finances for all I know, I don't really care. I just need to prove he's a lot less trustworthy than Hael

[Amanuensis he/him]

Players will be executed and flipped upon reaching 10 votes.

• (3/10) Stick: Mistfallen, coco, Drake, 
• (2/10) Doc: Wahrheit, TJ, 
• (1/10) Hael: Doc, 
• (1/10) Drake: Stick, 
• (1/10) Mistfallen: Archer,

Edited March 18 by Amanuensis

[Doc12]

I was not expecting this to be the last loop, but it works for Thistle's arc! 

No analysis from me until I actually get home, but have some rp I wrote on my break 

---

Thistle woke up.

They were in their soft bed, sunlight streaming in through the window over the vioets. No pounding at their door this morning. They sat up, looked out the window.

For a long, long, time, they said nothing.

Then, slowly, they got up, gathered some things, and walked to the Happy Mask Shop.

The ones who remembered, they were there. Speaking, accusing. By the time they got there, Thistle learned that Cindra had already been removed.

Thistle thought Cindra a friend. She had been a friend these past loops.

Slowly, Thistle did what they came to do. “There’s rosemary, that’s for Cindra.” Laid on her corpse. “Pray you, dear, remember.”

“And there is pansies, that’s for Coliver.” Deep thought.

“There’s fennel for Kieran, and columbines for Wahi.” Strength and protection. Fortitude, resilience, faith.

“There’s rue for Link, and here’s some for me. We may call it herb of grace o’ Sundays. O, you must wear your rue with a difference!”

To Heroshi and Arenta, “There’s a daisy. I would give you some violets, but they wither’d all which each loop.”

Zymni received a blue nightshade, a flower that glowed in deepest night. "You shine, dear one."

For Ap, a single fleet-lotus, for her resilience in the deepest adversity. "You're the strongest one of us here."

And a last flower, a beautiful crystal rose. Thistle laid it on the counter.

Smiling softly, oddly, they bowed to the assembled crowd, and walked out the store again.

Someone called out to her, a voice Thistle knew. But they pulled their cloak tighter around themselves, and ran. 

Edited March 18 by Doc12

[Doc12]

---

OK I actually did skim through the last few posts and I'm being accused of stuff? Don't really know what I can say. I bought Truth after saving up all game, used it N2, and didn't have anything to do N3. Take that how you will, im annoyed that we're still not exing the elim I found. Pretty sure that's one of the "combination of factors" but sure, I'm fine with a stick exe, given that we did win last loop. 

[coco.pudding she/they]

1 minute ago, Doc12 said:

---

OK I actually did skim through the last few posts and I'm being accused of stuff? Don't really know what I can say. I bought Truth after saving up all game, used it N2, and didn't have anything to do N3. Take that how you will, im annoyed that we're still not exing the elim I found. Pretty sure that's one of the "combination of factors" but sure, I'm fine with a stick exe, given that we did win last loop. 

See I want to believe you—it would solve a lot of problems for us—but I just don’t understand why e!Hael would do some of the things he did last loop. And talking with him in the dead doc did make me a little more trusting of him. But then I’ve also kinda been reading you as village throughout the game, so idk

I think the takeaway here is that we exe stick first and while we’re doing that we have a while to figure out whats going on between you and Hael and which of you is elim. I do think it’s still very much up in the air.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

I'll note that the Day 3C vote wasn't close. It spent most of the day not being close, either one way or the other.

That means the Keaton mask probably wasn't ever going to sway the outcome.

I tend to think it probably wasn't intended to, in that case.

If we feel the manipulation came from an elim, it's honestly anyone's guess what mindgame they were going for.

If it came from a villager, then they probably just used it for the sake of using it, or maybe to defend against hammers or other last minute changes. It's strange they haven't spoken up, but I think that's still plausible right now.

 

The whereabouts of the Keaton Mask is an interesting question but I'm not sure it changes my suspicions.

If the evils have it, is there any reason it couldn't just be Stick?

For the above reason, I don't think it's actually too crazy that E!Stick might move a vote onto E!Stick.

 

Anyways I'll be back in a little while. I think I've mostly said my piece so maybe I'll catch up on the RP scene. I can aspire at least.

[coco.pudding she/they]

3 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I'll note that the Day 3C vote wasn't close. It spent most of the day not being close, either one way or the other.

That means the Keaton mask probably wasn't ever going to sway the outcome.

I tend to think it probably wasn't intended to, in that case.

If we feel the manipulation came from an elim, it's honestly anyone's guess what mindgame they were going for.

If it came from a villager, then they probably just used it for the sake of using it, or maybe to defend against hammers or other last minute changes. It's strange they haven't spoken up, but I think that's still plausible right now.

 

The whereabouts of the Keaton Mask is an interesting question but I'm not sure it changes my suspicions.

If the evils have it, is there any reason it couldn't just be Stick?

For the above reason, I don't think it's actually too crazy that E!Stick might move a vote onto E!Stick.

 

Anyways I'll be back in a little while. I think I've mostly said my piece so maybe I'll catch up on the RP scene. I can aspire at least.

Wdym it wasn’t close? It was tied or different by one vote for most of the day iirc. That only changed at the very end with Archer’s vote.

Stick could not have gotten it, she would have been at 30 rupees at the very most (if she had max posts) by the night.