Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[Illwei]

Edit:

One problem woth all this is that ash and jnv were absent for a lot of the game. It could have been them lying just trying to keep from having to talk, but if truly absent then the question is when did the wagons buiold in previous rounds and how soon to that happenening were they on. 

other thing is that bussing jnv in that gamestate isn't a wrong move, since both he and Ash were the candidates and neither were active enough to warrant trying to hard protect. The issue with that is that would mean that araris if bussing chose to bus off the bat without trying to get a misexe first which puts then at a severe disadvantage going into the next day

 

And reminder to claim Brandon of coffee isn't actually brandon- this is not a cycle to let a fakclaim cover for you

An actual edit:

Aeyori choosing to obviously not believe coffee is probably noteworthy somewhere, I just don't know where

[Kasimir he/him]

27 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

other thing is that bussing jnv in that gamestate isn't a wrong move, since both he and Ash were the candidates and neither were active enough to warrant trying to hard protect. The issue with that is that would mean that araris if bussing chose to bus off the bat without trying to get a misexe first which puts then at a severe disadvantage going into the next day

Are you suggesting E!TKN, or just both V!TKN and V!Araris? I do know Araris has a thing where he sometimes puts a distancing vote and then feels locked in, but in this case, it just feels like an unforced error.

Edited to add:

28 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

Hey guys, yes I'm BS claiming, and I assume the Elim is too scared to CC which I was kinda hoping for, as it would have revealed(at least to me) who the elim was. 

Why would the Elim cc you? ccing you would be seppuku. There's no reason to hope for the Elim to cc here.

Edited to add 2:

28 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

As for my suspicions, I still think Neil is a good Elim candidate, with all the votes they got involved in.

All the what votes?

Edited December 18, 2023 by Kasimir
Small cc to disambiguate from contribution crusade

[Illwei]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Are you suggesting E!TKN, or just both V!TKN and V!Araris? I do know Araris has a thing where he sometimes puts a distancing vote and then feels locked in, but in this case, it just feels like an unforced error.

I'm not rereading things right now am too tired and on mobile, so right now I'm saying possible hypotheticals and will make a decision eventually when I get on comp and fact check

I'm also trying to figure out how much I trust aeyori but that's honestly a problem for tomorrow

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Ooklil the Wei said:

I'm not rereading things right now am too tired and on mobile, so right now I'm saying possible hypotheticals and will make a decision eventually when I get on comp and fact check

I'm also trying to figure out how much I trust aeyori but that's honestly a problem for tomorrow

Reasonable. I'm not sure if I believe you're V, I honestly kind of want to because of two factors, but at the same time, you did scam me in Archer's QF and with Coffee claiming Sanderson, PoE has kinda been screwed to hell and back.

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Bald said:

My current guess is sk!Neil and e!Araris. 

And why?

1 hour ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

 

@Ookla the Resolute

I'd be proud if you worked on formatting your posts

Teach me your ways please, o wise one

[Kasimir he/him]

@Coffeecat - You're lurking in the thread, so instead of waiting for an Elim to cc in a suicide run, think you could answer my questions? The point is to solve for the Elims, not to wait for something to happen.

[Coffeecat she/her]

Dude I can't answer every time I look at the thread. 

The Elim cc was just a wild hope really, didn't think it would happen. 

I've already said who I wanted to execute today and gave my reasons, Neil's whole thing was to put votes on very low info players to try to get their reaction, or an Elim jumping into the train. However this is all very unlikely if it's very clearly an unsubstantiated vote that no one will follow. This is why I think Neil is 'trying to solve' the game, without actually doing much for the village. It just seems a really low risk Elim strategy to say 'hey i don't wanna kill this person, just putting a vote on them for the sake of information'

It all just seems too vague to do anything for the village, while still seeming like a village thing to do. However we still haven't seen any results from these science votes, so I would say to get rid of Neil today. If they flip vill, we have less options to worry about. 

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, Coffeecat said:

If they flip vill, we have less options to worry about.

Bud it will be lylo if that happens.

And we'll have a pool of <Illwei, TKN>. It depends too much on TKN being village

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

It all just seems too vague to do anything for the village, while still seeming like a village thing to do. However we still haven't seen any results from these science votes, so I would say to get rid of Neil today. If they flip vill, we have less options to worry about. 

He had...one science vote. What about the rest of his C1 and C2?

4 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I've already said who I wanted to execute today and gave my reasons, Neil's whole thing was to put votes on very low info players to try to get their reaction, or an Elim jumping into the train. However this is all very unlikely if it's very clearly an unsubstantiated vote that no one will follow. This is why I think Neil is 'trying to solve' the game, without actually doing much for the village. It just seems a really low risk Elim strategy to say 'hey i don't wanna kill this person, just putting a vote on them for the sake of information'

Except that I was asking you why you thought a cc play was remotely plausible. 

So...you basically think you have the game locked on Neil, no need for further discussion, backreading, or you know, evaluating with the what, more than 24 hours we have left?

Because yeah, you're Sanderson, but honestly the fact you're taking it as license to sit there and not consider other possibilities is appalling - we need to vote red today, or failing which, prepare the Village for the best possible endgame, and I dislike that complacency regardless of your alignment.

If Neil flips green, who do you go to next cycle?

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Bud it will be lylo if that happens.

And we'll have a pool of <Illwei, TKN>. It depends too much on TKN being village

Aeoryi, are you implying we shouldn't kill neil because instead of me vs tkn tomorrow it'd be me vs. neil at e/lo?
I'm a little confused at what this means at all. Seems you think I'm undeniably the elim, no other candidates?

[Coffeecat she/her]

I'm not complacent about Neil, I just think with my current train of thought it seems the option right now. I'm still definitely thinking about what else could be done, and you should too. I'm not locked onto Neil, I just haven't had reason to vote any one else yet. 

[Aeoryi she/her]

12 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Aeoryi, are you implying we shouldn't kill neil because instead of me vs tkn tomorrow it'd be me vs. neil at e/lo?
I'm a little confused at what this means at all. Seems you think I'm undeniably the elim, no other candidates?

Not undeniably. It's just that everyone else has some sort of thing going for them being v, and you... Just don't have a lot.

[Kasimir he/him]

7 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I'm not complacent about Neil, I just think with my current train of thought it seems the option right now. I'm still definitely thinking about what else could be done, and you should too. I'm not locked onto Neil, I just haven't had reason to vote any one else yet. 

Funny comment to make of the guy who has been making long analysis posts and who IDed JNV and Ash even as you suggested they wouldn't be hits. Or, you know, the guy promoting thread discussion - I specifically ask and am in part waiting for Neil because he makes a very interesting comment about the kill on C2.

Edited to add:

5 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Not undeniably. It's just that everyone else has some sort of thing going for them being v, and you... Just don't have a lot.

There are two factors that make me consider V!Illwei tbh. But Coffee has screwed my PoE immeasurably.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Kasimir

[Illwei]

6 hours ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

0. Illwei said the description of JNV and ash matched the Descriptions of a hiding elim

you're right, my first real post as an Elim would be to come in to thread and call my teammates evil and then call a bunch of villagers town, right.

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

you're right, my first real post as an Elim would be to come in to thread and call my teammates evil and then call a bunch of villagers town, right.

It wasn't actually your first post- you had a few very Illwei posts 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I still have work and RL but I want to go through some of the basic vote counts and see what we can glean. I'll try to do vote progression analysis later when I have a chunk of time.

Cycle One:

Flip Edition:

Agreed RL may interfere, but again - Ash and JNV both showed up and then didn't. Neil's Ravenclaw CW happens around the time both JNV and Ash face some pressure (though that eventually melts away), which might suggest Neil is a potential partner here.

I continue to be very struck by the fact most of the last minute vote movers were Village: <Neil, Raven, Wiz, Devo, Aman>, which is strongly suggestive, as I've argued, of high Elim contentment with this state of affairs. (Aeo intercepting an exe for Ash is probably the biggest gift the Elims received C1, which is why we don't do that >>)

Credence Edition:

My argument for V!TKN is the JNV vote and the fact JNV just seemed to overlook TKN in their initial reads before being called out about it, i.e. being just as oddly understanding of TKN as they were of Aeo and Archer.

Cycle Two

Flip Edition:

Credence Edition:

Second time an entire train is exterminated except for Araris, FWIW. Again, from Ash's and JNV's relative inactivity, I'd argue they're relatively content with this state of affairs. It's true the Araris train only picked up momentum after JNV left, but with some votes on Araris, I'd expect JNV to have realised they needed to check in.

(I have additional thoughts here about Araris's kill MO FWIW.)

Cycle Three

Flip Edition:

Credences Edition:

I think it's reasonable to argue the JNV train is pretty pure, which means at most one of <Araris, TKN> are Evil.

Relative inaction from Neil, Coffee, Ash, and Illwei is interesting - Ash was potentially too inactive, though I recall seeing him in thread a few times. Illwei makes a mixed argument for JNV, but, crucially, refuses to vote on them. 

Neil tries to direct traffic to Illwei, but at the same time, unvotes Illwei despite arguing her slot is red.

Also, @neil the beguiled - One more question I had I suppose. This was something that was bothering me a bit, which is: suppose you are correct in arguing that zero take-up on AlphaWei indicates AlphaWei is Evil. (You made this claim last cycle, here.)

Why then do you unvote her? Shouldn't the obvious inference be: these trains are wrong, I need to steer people onto AlphaWei?

Coffee as claimed is BS, therefore confirmed Village.

Araris dropped a poke vote on JNV that never moved. @Winnie the Pookla Want your assessment of this cycle.

But we also know something very interesting: the Elims significantly altered their kill MO. This is because instead of leaving the <Aman, Kas, Aeo, Neil> set untouched, they started to shoot inside the set. If you theorise, as Araris initially did, that they didn't want to mess around with Aman playing IKYK games, then they clearly changed their mind. What was the factor here?

1. Kill MO swamping, potentially: perhaps one of <Ash, JNV> or a teammate didn't want to kill aggressively but felt the need to when they perceived the Village was getting its drek together.

2. The theory that Aman was BS - but again, if true, why dare the shot now? Other easy ways to take out discussion people, including me, especially since Coffee, Neil, Illwei, Aeo were all shading Aman.

(I'm questioning FWIW if this shot is an Araris shot in the first place. It doesn't quite feel correct.)

@Ookla the Bald Reasons?

I think the Raven kill is very more likely to come from Neil than really anyone else. Really, I think an e!Neil sk!Aeoryi is also possible with this insistence on going after Illwei (and me, but going after me is more understandable) since Aeoryi could also definitely make the decision to kill Raven.

Really just voted Araris because he fits the same requirements as Neil, but Neil already had quite a few votes in. I see your arguments against e!Araris, and I'm actually tempted to believe them.

I need to check the vc, but I think I'm content to vote away from the main train even with these arguments. It's not like we can get hammered here. I'm planning on re-evaluating sometime tonight or tomorrow morning. 

[neil the beguiled]

12 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Alright. I'm still in the middle of busy stuff, but I want to try to drop things for people to engage with and to keep discussion flowing. So:

Mind explaining your thoughts here?

Purely off-the-cuff was my disclaimer, as I haven't had the time to sit down and do analysis yet - boils down to the JNV vote. I'm not confident JNV was bussed, though I've to actually redo vote analysis later on factoring in all the rest. Given JNV self-pressed on Ash, it feels a bit like the team preferred an Ash wagon, and I think TKN could comfortably have voted Ash. I'm not saying I'm as confident of V!him as I am of Aeo, but I think it's a good look and I'm not interested in litigating that when there are more suspicious players to push.

Also, there's Araris's reasoning FWIW which I'm keeping in mind - the Elims know that both JNV and Ash are Evil, and they know that the SK may very well shoot one of them. Now of course, the SK is going back to shoot people who look like Village the next cycle. It's a no brainer because they're -

I'm an idiot yes sorry we just kill the last Elim and end this, what am I talking about, I was drunk. Keep forgetting how our wincon relates to the SK.

Anyway, where was I?

The point is that I don't feel the last Elim wants to look Villagery - SK risk is real. It's a bit of an IKYK on some level but that's my intuition right now. Defer to @Winnie the Pookla as I feel his E!sense is sharper than mine and if V, value his instincts here.

Mind clarifying it?

I gotchu man

uh wrt aeoryi i just dont think the way that jnv interacted with her and vice versa was ever as partners, and i also just think aeoryi's been pretty consistently towny. but like- off the top of my head if you remember her seeming like... dissapointed that jnv was seeminlgly meta cleared d1? which idt ever comes from an elim partner, who'd wanna capitalize on it. 

i will ruminate on this later i think

BM=bad manners , if someone did jump in on it i'd be more inclined to think this is a town slot and then pressure whoever jumped on after i was done #sciencing.

o7 ty king

11 hours ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

my apologies sorry 

Pronouns are hard to remember (you can't see signs on mobile) but I'll promise I'll try

... im ngl i didnt realize they didnt show up on mobile; uhm, for those that are on mobile i use it/its + he/him 👍">👍">👍">👍">👍">👍">👍">👍">👍">

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@neil the beguiled @Ooklil the Wei-

To what extent would you say faking slips/derps are within Neil's E!range?

Feel there's a potential way to narrow this down but it depends - I'd never bet the farm on his being derpclearable, but I want a relative gauge in mind.

Edited to add 2:

Tbh, I don't.

Edited to add:

Gonna do something a bit unusual. Maybe tactically bad, IDK. For science! (As Neil would say.)

@neil the beguiled @Ookla the Resolute @Ooklil the Wei @Coffeecat @Ookla the Bald @Winnie the Pookla

Give me your top SK candidate and your top Elim candidate and why.

Edited to add 3:

I have thoughts about the road ahead for the Village. But for now:

Mr Sanderson, I know I mentioned I wanted to die but I'd like to request protection for this cycle, as I feel I might be of use into the endgame. I think it's worth forcing a kill within PoE if we can. Thanks!

faking slips is within my townrange so its within my wolfrange. idk what youre talking about though uhm- id be embarassed to be cleared off a slip though so id rather not ^^

lol

uhm

elim i think illwei? for sk im gonna do a bit more digging- i dopnt think illwei is ever an SK here for bad reasons, maybe TKN?

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Any reason you didn't want to unvote?

I felt it seemed plausible on the face of it: it's rough for an Elim or SK to claim Brandon here. I guess Coffee would be screwed either way, but being cced in a thunderdome is a death sentence. Obviously, if there's a cc, the calculus changes.

to play devils advocate, i could see a last ditch effort for an elim or sk here to claim brandon and force the real one to out if they dont think they'd escape poe anyways. but i think thatd be a lot harder to do in a nightless game regardless?

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I still have work and RL but I want to go through some of the basic vote counts and see what we can glean. I'll try to do vote progression analysis later when I have a chunk of time.

Cycle One:

Flip Edition:

Agreed RL may interfere, but again - Ash and JNV both showed up and then didn't. Neil's Ravenclaw CW happens around the time both JNV and Ash face some pressure (though that eventually melts away), which might suggest Neil is a potential partner here.

I continue to be very struck by the fact most of the last minute vote movers were Village: <Neil, Raven, Wiz, Devo, Aman>, which is strongly suggestive, as I've argued, of high Elim contentment with this state of affairs. (Aeo intercepting an exe for Ash is probably the biggest gift the Elims received C1, which is why we don't do that >>)

Credence Edition:

My argument for V!TKN is the JNV vote and the fact JNV just seemed to overlook TKN in their initial reads before being called out about it, i.e. being just as oddly understanding of TKN as they were of Aeo and Archer.

Cycle Two

Flip Edition:

Credence Edition:

Second time an entire train is exterminated except for Araris, FWIW. Again, from Ash's and JNV's relative inactivity, I'd argue they're relatively content with this state of affairs. It's true the Araris train only picked up momentum after JNV left, but with some votes on Araris, I'd expect JNV to have realised they needed to check in.

(I have additional thoughts here about Araris's kill MO FWIW.)

Cycle Three

Flip Edition:

Credences Edition:

I think it's reasonable to argue the JNV train is pretty pure, which means at most one of <Araris, TKN> are Evil.

Relative inaction from Neil, Coffee, Ash, and Illwei is interesting - Ash was potentially too inactive, though I recall seeing him in thread a few times. Illwei makes a mixed argument for JNV, but, crucially, refuses to vote on them. 

Neil tries to direct traffic to Illwei, but at the same time, unvotes Illwei despite arguing her slot is red.

Also, @neil the beguiled - One more question I had I suppose. This was something that was bothering me a bit, which is: suppose you are correct in arguing that zero take-up on AlphaWei indicates AlphaWei is Evil. (You made this claim last cycle, here.)

Why then do you unvote her? Shouldn't the obvious inference be: these trains are wrong, I need to steer people onto AlphaWei?

Coffee as claimed is BS, therefore confirmed Village.

Araris dropped a poke vote on JNV that never moved. @Winnie the Pookla Want your assessment of this cycle.

But we also know something very interesting: the Elims significantly altered their kill MO. This is because instead of leaving the <Aman, Kas, Aeo, Neil> set untouched, they started to shoot inside the set. If you theorise, as Araris initially did, that they didn't want to mess around with Aman playing IKYK games, then they clearly changed their mind. What was the factor here?

1. Kill MO swamping, potentially: perhaps one of <Ash, JNV> or a teammate didn't want to kill aggressively but felt the need to when they perceived the Village was getting its drek together.

2. The theory that Aman was BS - but again, if true, why dare the shot now? Other easy ways to take out discussion people, including me, especially since Coffee, Neil, Illwei, Aeo were all shading Aman.

(I'm questioning FWIW if this shot is an Araris shot in the first place. It doesn't quite feel correct.)

@Ookla the Bald Reasons?

because i felt that either of JNV/Ash needed to be resolved anyways, and they fit with my otherwise stated theory of a quiet elim team. and i guess to bring up my first point, it'd be bm of me to do that so i didnt want to.

but also wrt alphawei i uh,, felt a bit reserved beinf the one to bring that up when ppl were ascribing a v lean anyways and ive not played any longform with ilwei.

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

BM=bad manners , if someone did jump in on it i'd be more inclined to think this is a town slot and then pressure whoever jumped on after i was done #sciencing.

Oh I know, I guess... Is it a MU/FR/chat mafia thing? To not instantly kill a sub? (It's not true here so I think I got a bit confused   True story - my shortest stint as a sub was a couple hours because they PHed me in during the Night, I immediately picked a fight with the vig, and the vig vigkilled me. Fastest case of town-on-town violence ever  )

2 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

faking slips is within my townrange so its within my wolfrange. idk what youre talking about though uhm- id be embarassed to be cleared off a slip though so id rather not ^^

You confused Raven and Ravenclaw and tried to clear me off the basis of my pointing out that Raven was a BM kill for any regular player. I'm - I think it's pretty complex to reason out but it feels telling to me that you were confused between them as I kinda think E!Neil would be more clear about who his team was murdering?

4 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

to play devils advocate, i could see a last ditch effort for an elim or sk here to claim brandon and force the real one to out if they dont think they'd escape poe anyways. but i think thatd be a lot harder to do in a nightless game regardless?

Sorry, how so?

5 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

elim i think illwei? for sk im gonna do a bit more digging- i dopnt think illwei is ever an SK here for bad reasons, maybe TKN?

Why Illwei? SK-wise, I think it's a fair reason: the two kills demonstrate the SK was tracking the thread late. I think there's fair reason to say that's less likely of Illwei as Alpha was extremely absent.

Also wb man, I am not fully sold on SK you or E you and I am hoping interacting with you more will help me nail down my reads

[neil the beguiled]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Oh I know, I guess... Is it a MU/FR/chat mafia thing? To not instantly kill a sub? (It's not true here so I think I got a bit confused   True story - my shortest stint as a sub was a couple hours because they PHed me in during the Night, I immediately picked a fight with the vig, and the vig vigkilled me. Fastest case of town-on-town violence ever  )

You confused Raven and Ravenclaw and tried to clear me off the basis of my pointing out that Raven was a BM kill for any regular player. I'm - I think it's pretty complex to reason out but it feels telling to me that you were confused between them as I kinda think E!Neil would be more clear about who his team was murdering?

Sorry, how so?

Why Illwei? SK-wise, I think it's a fair reason: the two kills demonstrate the SK was tracking the thread late. I think there's fair reason to say that's less likely of Illwei as Alpha was extremely absent.

Also wb man, I am not fully sold on SK you or E you and I am hoping interacting with you more will help me nail down my reads

concept of BM is more from my chat background acc, but i think in general people are willing to give subs their space? esp if they sub in later in a cycle like illwei did.

oh i can see that i guess but im like. 1 dyslexic 2 bad with names in general and 3 very tired all the time lmao; take it as NAI. that being said i think its more killer indicative for me to kill someone whos name's confusing me :P. xD [well not really but im glad theyre all gone for my sake]

uhh basically like; if youre evil and likely the vote, you claim brandon and get cc'd. if you dont get eliminated there you're outed lol, and if you do, the other evil can use that as a target. the issue comes in with the fact that theres no nightsso kills would be subbed before then? which is like a whole other can of worms to think of kills so. uhm idk i guess this is all to say wleomce to my world of hedge

yeah^^

uh well, break it down

coffee/kas/aoeryi (always town)

tkn/araris/illwei (poe)

illwei is never sk here to me and prior threadstate bit + subtle defense of jnv + prior mentioned shade that was slimy fmpov

meh but i kinda think that theres just exactly 1 elim 1 villager 1 sk in the pool of illwei/tkn/arasis

actually this is a lot easier then than i thought- if we just need to find the one in there, its gg fmpov

 

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

actually this is a lot easier then than i thought- if we just need to find the one in there, its gg fmpov

Hey Neil, you do run NKA as well, though granted in a different context. What's your view on the Aman shot? It's a major deviation from the past kill MOs IMO.

7 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

oh i can see that i guess but im like. 1 dyslexic 2 bad with names in general and 3 very tired all the time lmao; take it as NAI. that being said i think its more killer indicative for me to kill someone whos name's confusing me :P. xD [well not really but im glad theyre all gone for my sake]

Low key want to credit you for turning it down ;-;

7 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

uhh basically like; if youre evil and likely the vote, you claim brandon and get cc'd. if you dont get eliminated there you're outed lol, and if you do, the other evil can use that as a target. the issue comes in with the fact that theres no nightsso kills would be subbed before then? which is like a whole other can of worms to think of kills so. uhm idk i guess this is all to say wleomce to my world of hedge

Depends right? SK is kill-proof. You get outed as the SK the next cycle, but say at 2/1/1, if Village exes you, it's...pretty much going to be an unholy mess. And the Elim will never be shot by the SK because that just guarantees a Village win and SK loss. Just kind of trying to understand what you mean by Devil's Advocating in this specific context. What's world of hedge mean?

10 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

meh but i kinda think that theres just exactly 1 elim 1 villager 1 sk in the pool of illwei/tkn/arasis

PoE is pretty powerful yeah. I'm really hoping to be able to narrow mine down a bit more as I go back and forth questioning my thoughts, though hopefully not as aggressively as back when I pushed JNV  

[neil the beguiled]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Hey Neil, you do run NKA as well, though granted in a different context. What's your view on the Aman shot? It's a major deviation from the past kill MOs IMO.

Low key want to credit you for turning it down ;-;

Depends right? SK is kill-proof. You get outed as the SK the next cycle, but say at 2/1/1, if Village exes you, it's...pretty much going to be an unholy mess. And the Elim will never be shot by the SK because that just guarantees a Village win and SK loss. Just kind of trying to understand what you mean by Devil's Advocating in this specific context. What's world of hedge mean?

PoE is pretty powerful yeah. I'm really hoping to be able to narrow mine down a bit more as I go back and forth questioning my thoughts, though hopefully not as aggressively as back when I pushed JNV  

ehh best guess for aman is that elims believed the claim at that point? i think he was also one of the main proponents of the ash shot as well so its likely they saw him as unpushable from claim + interactions. i cant promise i have the time to look back on it atm though, my times becoming more limited as late game presses upon me.

LOL u dont have to its okay <3.

maybe my math is a bit wrong but the idea being that an evil would want another evil to win over a village win? if their own wincon is unobtainable. and by world of hedge im saying im being hedgy with my response there and i know that i am</3.

xD yeah. i think im going to settle into looking over araris bc i feel like ive overlooked him for the time being. for SK chances i think hes resoundedly middling but thinking of it i think id call him last chance for elim atm? (ie e! illwei>tkn>araris, but sk!tkn>araris>illwei). logistics wise id think TKN the best shot acc for decent chances of either?

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

ehh best guess for aman is that elims believed the claim at that point? i think he was also one of the main proponents of the ash shot as well so its likely they saw him as unpushable from claim + interactions. i cant promise i have the time to look back on it atm though, my times becoming more limited as late game presses upon me.

LOL u dont have to its okay <3.

maybe my math is a bit wrong but the idea being that an evil would want another evil to win over a village win? if their own wincon is unobtainable. and by world of hedge im saying im being hedgy with my response there and i know that i am</3.

xD yeah. i think im going to settle into looking over araris bc i feel like ive overlooked him for the time being. for SK chances i think hes resoundedly middling but thinking of it i think id call him last chance for elim atm? (ie e! illwei>tkn>araris, but sk!tkn>araris>illwei). logistics wise id think TKN the best shot acc for decent chances of either?

 

Sorry on mobile so quoting is borky.

1. Fair enough!

2. Yeah just impulse sigh.

3. Fair  I guess it's just alien to me as a mindset. Even when I'm 3p I always want town to win. I guess I take your point anyway — just regard any credit as prima facie since Araris hasn't shown up yet.

4. Do you then think Araris or TKN bussed JNV?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

But we also know something very interesting: the Elims significantly altered their kill MO. This is because instead of leaving the <Aman, Kas, Aeo, Neil> set untouched, they started to shoot inside the set. If you theorise, as Araris initially did, that they didn't want to mess around with Aman playing IKYK games, then they clearly changed their mind. What was the factor here?

I can answer this somewhat; leaving the obvious villagers alive only works when you have enough teammates to outnumber them. Once that becomes unviable, you bite the bullet, and might as well try to kill Brandon. E!me probably would have made that kill, unless I had a different Brandon guess.

Like I said last cycle I’m gonna try and step up my game here. Minor consideration for Neil is whether Mat makes a new player into a SK, since it’s not clear he had mafia experience from signups. Otherwise he seems like he could fit that slot.

We are presumably at 5-1-1, so to win the elim needs to:

1. Not get exed
2. Get the NK past Brandon
3. Not get SK’d, reaching 2-1-1 or 3-1
4. Have a misexe option for C5
5. And the SK really doesn’t want to hit the elim

I agree with the notion that the SK wouldn’t want to look obviously village.

I started writing this post 4 hours ago and got distracted. More to come with my rereads of folks, still also kinda busy with my family. If I had to vote now it would be Illwei.

[Aeoryi she/her]

4 minutes ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

I can answer this somewhat; leaving the obvious villagers alive only works when you have enough teammates to outnumber them. Once that becomes unviable, you bite the bullet, and might as well try to kill Brandon. E!me probably would have made that kill, unless I had a different Brandon guess.

Like I said last cycle I’m gonna try and step up my game here. Minor consideration for Neil is whether Mat makes a new player into a SK, since it’s not clear he had mafia experience from signups. Otherwise he seems like he could fit that slot.

We are presumably at 5-1-1, so to win the elim needs to:

1. Not get exed
2. Get the NK past Brandon
3. Not get SK’d, reaching 2-1-1 or 3-1
4. Have a misexe option for C5
5. And the SK really doesn’t want to hit the elim

I agree with the notion that the SK wouldn’t want to look obviously village.

I started writing this post 4 hours ago and got distracted. More to come with my rereads of folks, still also kinda busy with my family. If I had to vote now it would be Illwei.

Then by the new player != SK 

Illwei shouldn't be SK. That makes it likely to have:

1. TKN or Araris SK

2. Probably one Elim in <TKN, Neil, Illwei> 

3. Probably one SK in <Araris, TKN>

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Then by the new player != SK 

Illwei shouldn't be SK. That makes it likely to have:

1. TKN or Araris SK

2. Probably one Elim in <TKN, Neil, Illwei> 

3. Probably one SK in <Araris, TKN>

Alpha is not new.