Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[Illwei]

Neil can you expand on what you didn't like about my posts so far?

[Aeoryi she/her]

2 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

huh? why would i as a sk talk about bees?

edit:

also frmpov i dont get how you could ever think im SK here LOL?

edit2:

fmpov, accidental "r"

 

 

That was a joke btw

u eat bees = serial killer 

1 hour ago, Coffeecat said:

Ok so what I gather from this is the SK was town siding, which is nice although that's sadly not gonna continue now that there is only one elim. 

And also the elims did get tired of aman's IKYK games, but well at least BS is not dead. 

As for potential teams... I'm just lost. I don't think it's kas? I'm pretty sure it's not cas actually cause without them I think JNV would still be alive. And they were pushing ash. 

Aeoryi is a possibility, although my reason to suspect them was them being a team with araris, which is impossible now. Their behavior still throws me off sooooo much though, something I just have to come to terms with. Possible SK.

Illwei... There just isn't enough info on them for me to even get a gut feeling, perhaps if they did some readings idk.

There has been a push for Neil, and now that I know none of the other elims can get involved into that push im willing to look into a Neil possibility more over the next days.

That just leaves araris and bald, both of whom I don't really have a feeling for. I will look over their posts as well, since they are a bit less active. 

 

I'm gonna put a vote on neil for now. I'm gonna look into their posts later all I can say is that their science votes seen to me like a low investment tactic to seem more village, seeming like you are trying to solve the game without actually doing much to follow through.

The thing is, why would e!me wagon myself to save e!Ash? And why not just leave ash to die by themselves and leave unsuspected?

[EDIT: your point about others refusing to interact with a potential Neil train is a good point. Neil]

Welp, we have some teams ideas:

Spoiler

JNV-Ash-TKN: idk???

JNV-ASH-illwei: maybe unlikely

JNV-Ash-coffee: very plausible imo given their attempts to CW Neil

JNV-Ash-araris: somewhat plausible 

JNV-Ash-neil: also possible

JNV-Ash-Kas: simply no

I'll do some action analysis for each potential team after I get home 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Ookla the Resolute
Voted

[Coffeecat she/her]

33 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

The thing is, why would e!me wagon myself to save e!Ash? And why not just leave ash to die by themselves and leave unsuspected?

I said I didn't suspect you as Elim, why be so defensive. 

 

33 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

JNV-Ash-coffee: very plausible imo given their attempts to CW Neil

Aren't you also voting Neil?

 

This all just seems weirdly defensive but I think Im just gonna have to accept that's how you behave and go with it.

[Aeoryi she/her]

ED2T?

Logic:

Spoiler

Currently alive players: TKN, Illwei, Coffee, Araris, Aeoryi, Kasimir

Players who are Village (Alive): Kasimir, Aeoryi (yes I will be excluding myself)

Players who are Elim (dead): Ash, JNV

Size of Elim team: 3 (4 too unlikely)

I'll get to action analysis after gimme a sec

1 minute ago, Coffeecat said:

I said I didn't suspect you as Elim, why be so defensive. 

 

Aren't you also voting Neil?

 

This all just seems weirdly defensive but I think Im just gonna have to accept that's how you behave and go with it.

I missed your point about Neil in my first read through, and edited my vote in after. I suppose v!Neil being voted from e!coffee is possible, but e!Neil not having any additional attention from JNV or Ash is possible as well

[Kasimir he/him]

Aman

You'll still be the real BranAman Sanderson to me bro.

Sorry guys no time for analysis rn. Will be back later.

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Aman

You'll still be the real BranAman Sanderson to me bro.

Sorry guys no time for analysis rn. Will be back later.

   We should probably also look at how people interacted with Aman's fake claim, but I'm worried of outing the real BS

[Aeoryi she/her]

1. JNV Ash Kas

Spoiler

Evidence for:

Kas was hesitant to vote JNV probably due to sleep

Evidence against:

Kas basically damned both of them, and suspected JNV c1

2. JNV Ash Aeoryi

Spoiler

Evidence for:

Aeoryi avoided giving a JNV read or an ash read, and labeled JNV 's posts as NAI. Aeoryi being sussed by JNV might be distancing tactic

Aeo also has been acting strangely, and didn't believe Aman was the BS

Evidence against:

Aeo sacrificed herself for ash, which doesn't make sense if e!Aeo. Also, potentially strange C1 EOD 

Aeo also suggested a sleeper Elim team

3. JNV Ash Neil:

Spoiler

Evidence for:

JNV didn't like Neil much

Neil has been mostly v!read for effort clear but has admitted they haven't contributed as much as they thought

Ravenclawjedi42 or Raven C1 NK makes some sense when left to a newer player

First one* to suggest that we might have inactive elims

Evidence against:

Neil was trying to get others to commit to a read on JNV. 

4. JNV Ash Coffee:

Spoiler

Evidence for:

Potentially trying to CW Neil to save e!JNV and Ash

Strange Araris suspicions that are better displayed as Aeo suspicions

Newer/returning player may be okay with NKing Raven or Ravenclawjedi42 

Evidence against:

JNV and Ash didn't try to distance much from Coffee. Expected more distancing.

5. JNV Ash Araris:

Quote

Evidence for:

Tba

Evidence against:

C2 Eod not aimable for e!JNV and e!ash if Araris is at risk of tie exe

6. JNV Ash Illwei

Spoiler

Evidence for:

tba - needs to be found

Evidence against:

They said that JNV matched the description of a sleeper Elim. And Ash, I think.

7. JNV Ash TKN 

Spoiler

Evidence for:

Could not give a solid read on JNV's e!meta

Evidence against:

Tba- probably exists

 

[Aeoryi she/her]

Subject: Aman Claim Reactions (figure I might as well put this out there)

Spoiler

Preliminary:

- Archer had already pulled off a fake SK reaction test that worked comparably to the time experience and I tried to Gambit mat 

- Aman is known for gambits. People might be less inclined to react to them.

RESULTS:

Spoiler

1. Kas- "what the hell" caught him off guard, made him lose his big analysis post, doesn't want to deal with this crem

2. Raven (not claw)- ignore

3. Kas- "Aman why are you this way"

4. Archer- Okay yeah Aman is the SK

5. Aeoryi- I tried this before didn't work your going to get killed 

6. Aeoryi- last time didn't work I refrain from d1 claiming

7. I seem to recall Neil being confused about the In-thread PMs of they were meant to be private

So yeah. Nothing gained, nothing lost. Just mostly NAI material

[Kasimir he/him]

Off the cuff thoughts with zero analysis whatsoever:

-Likely V!TKN

-Likely V!Aeo

@neil the beguiled Sorry short answer as I'm busy rn and can't give it the rethink yet—it felt as though you were trying to galvanise takers onto Illwei while not wanting to commit to a CW since it was dead. In other words, my gut react on the spot and my reason for pushing back was because I distrusted what felt like attempts to CW hunt.

Has anyone voted Coffee yet? If not I'm looking in:

<Coffee, Illwei, Neil> rn.

Disagree with Aeo's NKA—completely ignores the Ravenclaw point validated by Devo's flip. I'm not relitigating this again.

Araris maybe V

Coffee

Edited December 18, 2023 by Kasimir
justification

[Illwei]

i like that kas has the same reads as me so far esp i think the neil read i had from last cycle that i mean i haven't said yet that was he's more likely wolf if jnv was based on EoD, but idk how I feel about that knowing now that it's e/e wagons and no one did anything to try and stop it really

[Kasimir he/him]

9 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

i like that kas has the same reads as me so far

You have Illwei in your suspect pool?  

Sorry, I'm tired -

Remove Illwei. I think she could be E and ascribe it some low probability but SK!Illwei is delusion

To be clear I suppose, and maybe showing my hand a little, I think it's worth exeing candidates in particular who have high odds of being Evil or an SK (as in ticks both boxes.) We're functionally dealing with two SKs now, one hopefully a little more connected than the other, so there's something to be said for applying pressure on the SK now.

Ultimately though, I still don't want this to consume too much of our energy - blue before red, blue or red before green is where I'm at with regard to flip priority. (If it's an E/V possibility for that player, I'm less interested compared to E/SK possibilities is what I'm getting at.)

[Illwei]

with 5-1-1

Honestly it's not so bad if brandon does indeed claim here. Technically there is only one person we need to eliminate, and two evils alive.

tomorrow we'll be at 2-1-1 if all kills go through on villagers

it would of course be the most beneficial if brandon can survive til tomorrow and then claim then, but otherwise today isn't a bad day for brandon to claim.

Neil

[Aeoryi she/her]

Coffee

I've noticed a lot of minor infractions on Coffee's part. Mainly because it shouldn't make sense to exe Neil over nothing but paranoia. Coffee really only C1'd when poked a bit, same with C2.

If Coffee flips V, my suspicions would be Araris or Illwei

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Off the cuff thoughts with zero analysis whatsoever:

-Likely V!TKN

-Likely V!Aeo

@neil the beguiled Sorry short answer as I'm busy rn and can't give it the rethink yet—it felt as though you were trying to galvanise takers onto Illwei while not wanting to commit to a CW since it was dead. In other words, my gut react on the spot and my reason for pushing back was because I distrusted what felt like attempts to CW hunt.

Has anyone voted Coffee yet? If not I'm looking in:

<Coffee, Illwei, Neil> rn.

Disagree with Aeo's NKA—completely ignores the Ravenclaw point validated by Devo's flip. I'm not relitigating this again.

Araris maybe V

Coffee

Yes I accidentally had all that analysis hinge on something yes it is probably obsolete now 

Btw you're forgetting araris

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Ookla the Resolute said:

Btw you're forgetting araris

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Araris maybe V

Am I?

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Am I?

Wait I swear 

Okay what's your basis on ur tKN v-read

[neil the beguiled]

6 hours ago, Coffeecat said:

Ok so what I gather from this is the SK was town siding, which is nice although that's sadly not gonna continue now that there is only one elim. 

And also the elims did get tired of aman's IKYK games, but well at least BS is not dead. 

As for potential teams... I'm just lost. I don't think it's kas? I'm pretty sure it's not cas actually cause without them I think JNV would still be alive. And they were pushing ash. 

Aeoryi is a possibility, although my reason to suspect them was them being a team with araris, which is impossible now. Their behavior still throws me off sooooo much though, something I just have to come to terms with. Possible SK.

Illwei... There just isn't enough info on them for me to even get a gut feeling, perhaps if they did some readings idk.

There has been a push for Neil, and now that I know none of the other elims can get involved into that push im willing to look into a Neil possibility more over the next days.

That just leaves araris and bald, both of whom I don't really have a feeling for. I will look over their posts as well, since they are a bit less active. 

 

I'm gonna put a vote on neil for now. I'm gonna look into their posts later all I can say is that their science votes seen to me like a low investment tactic to seem more village, seeming like you are trying to solve the game without actually doing much to follow through.

my "science votes" seem low investment is probably a bad look from you given youre completely ignoring my entire c1-2. ill admit ive dropped off but idrt thats much of an issue given we only had had townflips till c3 ended. also. lol. uhm.

5 hours ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Neil can you expand on what you didn't like about my posts so far?

the way you came into c3 shading like... half the pl and then also misrepresenting me as well. i get that you had just came in and skimmed things but i dont like being accused of "blind sheeping" when its clear ive been putting forth my own opinions into the game. that and your shade felt like you wnated to pull apart people to look thriugh their trs rather than look at where the elims were (slankers). that and your defense of jnv is nagl

4 hours ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

That was a joke btw

u eat bees = serial killer 

The thing is, why would e!me wagon myself to save e!Ash? And why not just leave ash to die by themselves and leave unsuspected?

[EDIT: your point about others refusing to interact with a potential Neil train is a good point. Neil]

Welp, we have some teams ideas:

  Reveal hidden contents

JNV-Ash-TKN: idk???

JNV-ASH-illwei: maybe unlikely

JNV-Ash-coffee: very plausible imo given their attempts to CW Neil

JNV-Ash-araris: somewhat plausible 

JNV-Ash-neil: also possible

JNV-Ash-Kas: simply no

I'll do some action analysis for each potential team after I get home 

how does eating bees make one a serial killer ;_;??

idk what youre expecting to get from a train on me given theres 2 elims dead atp

4 hours ago, Coffeecat said:

I said I didn't suspect you as Elim, why be so defensive. 

 

Aren't you also voting Neil?

 

This all just seems weirdly defensive but I think Im just gonna have to accept that's how you behave and go with it.

huh

4 hours ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

ED2T?

Logic:

  Reveal hidden contents

Currently alive players: TKN, Illwei, Coffee, Araris, Aeoryi, Kasimir

Players who are Village (Alive): Kasimir, Aeoryi (yes I will be excluding myself)

Players who are Elim (dead): Ash, JNV

Size of Elim team: 3 (4 too unlikely)

I'll get to action analysis after gimme a sec

I missed your point about Neil in my first read through, and edited my vote in after. I suppose v!Neil being voted from e!coffee is possible, but e!Neil not having any additional attention from JNV or Ash is possible as well

i dont think either of them interacted with much of anybody lbr. if nothing i think youre probably spewed clear for your interactions with them, but shrug. and kas probs isnt either but idt anybody was thinking that

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Off the cuff thoughts with zero analysis whatsoever:

-Likely V!TKN

-Likely V!Aeo

@neil the beguiled Sorry short answer as I'm busy rn and can't give it the rethink yet—it felt as though you were trying to galvanise takers onto Illwei while not wanting to commit to a CW since it was dead. In other words, my gut react on the spot and my reason for pushing back was because I distrusted what felt like attempts to CW hunt.

Has anyone voted Coffee yet? If not I'm looking in:

<Coffee, Illwei, Neil> rn.

Disagree with Aeo's NKA—completely ignores the Ravenclaw point validated by Devo's flip. I'm not relitigating this again.

Araris maybe V

Coffee

whats the case for a v!tkn?

oh i mean like. no lol? that'd be BM first of all, and second of all if anybody did jump on that i think id have thrown a fit towards them

 

 

anyways. this is getting really annoying but can yall ppl stop using they/them for me, my pronouns are in my sig and ive said this before.

[Kasimir he/him]

Alright. I'm still in the middle of busy stuff, but I want to try to drop things for people to engage with and to keep discussion flowing. So:

52 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

if nothing i think youre probably spewed clear for your interactions with them

Mind explaining your thoughts here?

52 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

whats the case for a v!tkn?

1 hour ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Okay what's your basis on ur tKN v-read

Purely off-the-cuff was my disclaimer, as I haven't had the time to sit down and do analysis yet - boils down to the JNV vote. I'm not confident JNV was bussed, though I've to actually redo vote analysis later on factoring in all the rest. Given JNV self-pressed on Ash, it feels a bit like the team preferred an Ash wagon, and I think TKN could comfortably have voted Ash. I'm not saying I'm as confident of V!him as I am of Aeo, but I think it's a good look and I'm not interested in litigating that when there are more suspicious players to push.

Also, there's Araris's reasoning FWIW which I'm keeping in mind - the Elims know that both JNV and Ash are Evil, and they know that the SK may very well shoot one of them. Now of course, the SK is going back to shoot people who look like Village the next cycle. It's a no brainer because they're -

I'm an idiot yes sorry we just kill the last Elim and end this, what am I talking about, I was drunk. Keep forgetting how our wincon relates to the SK.

Anyway, where was I?

The point is that I don't feel the last Elim wants to look Villagery - SK risk is real. It's a bit of an IKYK on some level but that's my intuition right now. Defer to @Winnie the Pookla as I feel his E!sense is sharper than mine and if V, value his instincts here.

57 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

oh i mean like. no lol? that'd be BM first of all, and second of all if anybody did jump on that i think id have thrown a fit towards them

Mind clarifying it?

58 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

anyways. this is getting really annoying but can yall ppl stop using they/them for me, my pronouns are in my sig and ive said this before.

I gotchu man

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 hour ago, neil the beguiled said:

anyways. this is getting really annoying but can yall ppl stop using they/them for me, my pronouns are in my sig and ive said this before.

my apologies sorry 

Pronouns are hard to remember (you can't see signs on mobile) but I'll promise I'll try

[Kasimir he/him]

22 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Purely off-the-cuff was my disclaimer, as I haven't had the time to sit down and do analysis yet - boils down to the JNV vote. I'm not confident JNV was bussed, though I've to actually redo vote analysis later on factoring in all the rest. Given JNV self-pressed on Ash, it feels a bit like the team preferred an Ash wagon, and I think TKN could comfortably have voted Ash. I'm not saying I'm as confident of V!him as I am of Aeo, but I think it's a good look and I'm not interested in litigating that when there are more suspicious players to push.

Oh yeah sorry I forgot: one more consideration was how JNV acted towards them. JNV was unusually understanding towards three players: Aeo, Archer, and TKN. With Archer flipping Village and Aeo looking pretty Village to me, I think there's prima facie reason to think JNV's ignoring TKN was in fact Elim TMI acting rather than shielding a teammate. I do feel it felt like a slip/oversight, rather than deliberate, and in LG97, JNV had no issues shading TKN.

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Oh yeah sorry I forgot: one more consideration was how JNV acted towards them. JNV was unusually understanding towards three players: Aeo, Archer, and TKN. With Archer flipping Village and Aeo looking pretty Village to me, I think there's prima facie reason to think JNV's ignoring TKN was in fact Elim TMI acting rather than shielding a teammate. I do feel it felt like a slip/oversight, rather than deliberate, and in LG97, JNV had no issues shading TKN.

Huh. Good point

[Kasimir he/him]

8 hours ago, Ookla the Destined said:

In the end, it was Kasim who made the final decision, marching over to the cover and unzipping it. Mat was glad for the decision. He wasn't sure about accusing someone else, but seeing Kasim finally decide his stance on this particular issue after flip-flopping so many times was nice.

LOOK MAT.

LOOK.

I DON'T SUMMON THE HORSEMEN OF THE EXE ON MERE GUT OKAY

I LIKE MY VOTES TO IDK HAVE OOMPH

I DON'T LEAN FULL INTO THREADWHIPPING / EXE SUMMONING MODE UNLESS I HAVE MORE TO GO ON THAN "tbh JNV just feels off and I can't explain why but #trustmeok I know V!JNV when I see them"

SMDFH

[Aeoryi she/her]

Quote

huh what's this

 

 

 

---

 

---

I'm learning the buttons okay

 

---

 

What is this line

---

---

[Kasimir he/him]

@neil the beguiled @Ooklil the Wei-

To what extent would you say faking slips/derps are within Neil's E!range?

Feel there's a potential way to narrow this down but it depends - I'd never bet the farm on his being derpclearable, but I want a relative gauge in mind.

Edited to add 2:

5 hours ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

i like that kas has the same reads as me so far

Tbh, I don't.

Edited to add:

Gonna do something a bit unusual. Maybe tactically bad, IDK. For science! (As Neil would say.)

@neil the beguiled @Ookla the Resolute @Ooklil the Wei @Coffeecat @Ookla the Bald @Winnie the Pookla

Give me your top SK candidate and your top Elim candidate and why.

Edited to add 3:

I have thoughts about the road ahead for the Village. But for now:

Mr Sanderson, I know I mentioned I wanted to die but I'd like to request protection for this cycle, as I feel I might be of use into the endgame. I think it's worth forcing a kill within PoE if we can. Thanks!

Edited December 18, 2023 by Kasimir

[Aeoryi she/her]

46 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Gonna do something a bit unusual. Maybe tactically bad, IDK. For science! (As Neil would say.)

@neil the beguiled @Ookla the Resolute @Ooklil the Wei @Coffeecat @Ookla the Bald @Winnie the Pookla

Give me your top SK candidate and your top Elim candidate and why.

Edited 28 minutes ago by salmon meerKas

Well since you asked...

Welcome to tunneling with Aeoryi! Today's subject of bad reasoning and stretch logic is coffee! (@Ooklil the Wei be proud of me)

Here's why: I didn't like This post that sort of defended JNV and Ash,  This post and This post feel very disconnected, And also what on earth is this. Now, I find posts like This one only moderately leaning in one direction of alignment. Their araris suspicions don't really make sense from a lateral mindset when compared to the same reads in the future. (Also, this post is pointless- Araris and I cannot be elims both). Here is an example of a weird post that, upon farther investigation, doesn't actually have the best reasoning/feels like stretching for reasons.

This post raises flags and This post does too: it calls out aman and wiz for lurking but ignores the ultimate lurkers (labyrinth, TKN, JNV and Ash) who would be better candidates for a poke vote, potentially because e/e interaction.

And it appears I have linked nearly every one of Coffee's posts. I'd quickly like to note here that each one of the posts has a slightly negative read, and I feel like they amount when looked at closer (I had a similar case to this in the last MR). I'd like to note that most of them were minor infractions, but eventually they've gotta count.

Ultimately, I think the greatest reasons lie within the team comps:

Coffee-JNV-Ash seems like the e!activity levels that I suspect have been present. It might also explain the fact that they refrained from killing active players (I.e: Kas, Aman, Myself, Neil), as that was definitely a mistake I also made in my first elim game.

I haven't looked at their e!meta yet (since that is from the iron age of SE) but I doubt it holds much value here.

VERDICT: Coffee is elim 

Moving on...

 

Top SK candidate: Neil and TKN

I could see araris here as well. Now the thing is, I haven't been actively searching for the SK, and really because there isn't any need to. If coffee truly is elim, exeing them ends the game with a w for village.

I'll lay out the little pieces of evidence I have for both:

TKN: only helps in gears like scenarios. Very much like gears this game IMO. Don't know who gears is? exactly. the thing is, in such a non-committal mindset and post composition, it just makes them come off as being able to play both sides. I'd say this is partially true for araris, but the ravenhaslanded sk kill doesn't make much sense from an araris standpoint. I'm not sure what other signs an SK might show, since they're quite rare in SE, but those are what I think might be signals for a potential SK!Araris/T(SK)N

Neil: I was going to point out how fluff some of their posts seemed, but then realized that I don't even know their meta. I think that ultimately, there's a good chance they aren't the SK, or anywhere close to it. I also don't think Neil really has much external factor really in the posts witchcraft makes it less likely we have skneil 

now I know what you're thinking but trust me it's just me figuring out my thoughts

[Coffeecat she/her]

2 hours ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Pronouns are hard to remember (you can't see signs on mobile) but I'll promise I'll try

Same, sorry.

 

As for the votes on me... I don't have much I want to say this cycle, all i have to say is it would be really beneficial for the village if i was alive for the 2-1-1

The thing is if you kill me you won't reach 3-1 with elims cause I'm not SK and the Elim isn't going to be able to kill the SK either. 

All I'm saying for now is, I'm ok if you want to kill me next turn, for now I would much rather be alive, does that make sense?