Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

i wanted to put a vote down there to see how the greater thread would interact with it- the fact that it wasnt piled on at all generally indicates a red slot

Feels like an IKYK. With AlphWei having barely anything beyond a pulse and being just this shade of less filter-dodgy than Illwei, suggesting Elims would pile onto an obvious LHF train that didn't do anything is a strange train of thought when Ash was being more obviously egregious about it. Feels a tad self-congratulatory if I'm being honest.

3 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

question; how much would you stake that this isnt e!illwei?? can anybody concretely say that they think they are the same alignment as her?

Weakly, enough to make me not want to vote her today but you're free to pressure her if you want to  Something something Stick's motto here. My credentials: just came out of a QF being scammed by E!Illwei, saw some slight behavioural shifts. Would I bet the farm? No. That's why I'm self-describing it as a weak read. Do you feel that's concrete? It's a you call. Illwei just subbed into a slot that could barely be said to have signs of life - stating here you want concrete thought is strange and artificially raises a burden of proof that makes me question your sincerity in asking.

Yeah I know I said I was gonna sleep. Was finishing something up, saw this, and felt like I had to log back in to say something because it was ???

Everything I'm reading in this bolded section I'm quoting demonstrates an artificially inflated burden of proof based off a test that was an isolated vote IMO and I question why Illwei in particular merits this higher burden of proof; is this E!Illwei trauma? Is this train splinter tactics? Don't feel an isolated vote that would have looked opportunistic by any measure is indication the slot should be red.

Turn this around and apply Neil's own tactics to himself: does it smell right by this elevated standard of evidence? If no, why this and why now?

Goodnight all. Done for real.

[neil the beguiled]

meh, ive seen this sort of stuff happen and in reverse. maybe not by d3, but weh. i even openly admitted that i dont know how much i can trust this sort of read based on how everyone is seeming to read her. my current read is anti-consensus so i want to see *why*.

i didnt like illwei's opening but im alone in that; ive only played with illwei in turbos on MU and even then not very often. a lot of the people here have better experience with them. youre right that my commentary is arifically inflated but thats kind of the point of that. no further comment.

goodnight ^^

 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

23 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

illwei

science results: yeah i have no clue. full transparency ig, i wanted to put a vote down there to see how the greater thread would interact with it- the fact that it wasnt piled on at all generally indicates a red slot- ie to say if it was green the elims would take bait of it.  issue is i was not expecting a sub in at all-

and from that it feels as if illwei's been almost threadspewed town? question; how much would you stake that this isnt e!illwei?? can anybody concretely say that they think they are the same alignment as her?

illwei; question, you criticised me for "blindly" following the same people you were shading, can i have you forward an opinion on the current wagons then? (ash,jnv). and also what you think of araris?

side note, there was something that pinged me about aman earlier as specifically sk aligned in his talking about aeoryi which is making me want to eat my teeth. @Amanuensis question; why do you think aeoyi making worlds that include you as an elim is specifically pingy? You state there that a villager needs to put in genuine work, but youre so caught up in yourself that you dont see that that post from aeoryi is a lot of genuine work? Aeoryi feels like a free villager this game and the suspicion ramping up there is worrying fmpov because it feels like shes being designated as a misvote. Do you think that v!aeoryi should not be making worlds with you in it? Why? What do you make of her not including Kas then. Do you object to that?

other than that. meow. :3

edit:

science results seem to be: dont let me cook.

edit2:

im going back to sleep

 

I find it curious that Neil did the exact same test as me, but then got barely any information from it, meanwhile I got three elim teams in two worlds and a host of not e/e pairs. 

Almost enough to make me want to vote them again. But I won't, cause if JNV doesn't die then a solid chunk of my work is lost. I am thinking I'll go Neil off of a v!JNV flip. 

[Aeoryi she/her]

23 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

I find it curious that Neil did the exact same test as me, but then got barely any information from it, meanwhile I got three elim teams in two worlds and a host of not e/e pairs. 

Almost enough to make me want to vote them again. But I won't, cause if JNV doesn't die then a solid chunk of my work is lost. I am thinking I'll go Neil off of a v!JNV flip. 

JNV or Ash? 

[Illwei]

Yo when did Neil vote me lol

Working rn but jnv is most likely villa anyways bye so tired about to get a huge rush 

[Mat he/him]

17 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

@Ookla the Destined if we exe the SK today will their kill still go through?

Yes, all deaths occur simultaneously. Same goes for exeing the elim submitting the kill.

VC:

• JNV (4): Araris Valerian/Pookla, Aeoryi/Resolute, The Known Novel/Bald, Kasimir
• Ashbringer (2): Amanuensis, JNV

Just under three hours remaining! I likely will not be around to officially close the cycle, but at 3pm PST please stop posting/submitting actions, and I'll get up the next turn as soon as I can. It likely won't be too long.

[Amanuensis he/him]

2 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

side note, there was something that pinged me about aman earlier as specifically sk aligned in his talking about aeoryi which is making me want to eat my teeth. @Amanuensis question; why do you think aeoyi making worlds that include you as an elim is specifically pingy? You state there that a villager needs to put in genuine work, but youre so caught up in yourself that you dont see that that post from aeoryi is a lot of genuine work? Aeoryi feels like a free villager this game and the suspicion ramping up there is worrying fmpov because it feels like shes being designated as a misvote. Do you think that v!aeoryi should not be making worlds with you in it? Why? What do you make of her not including Kas then. Do you object to that?

Willing to acknowledge that I am undoubtedly caught up in myself  I often struggle to understand suspicion of me, but I will say that particular instance felt off specifically because Aeo knows I've claimed Brandon, a town only role, and we have yet to see a counterclaim (for good reason). That made my brain jump to her teambuilding being disingenuous or designed to cast doubt on my alignment when (in my personal opinion) I feel my effort this game should indicate I'm town regardless of my role. Sadly, I am a biased human like any other

Edited December 17, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Willing to acknowledge that I am undoubtedly caught up in myself  I often struggle to understand suspicion of me, but I will say that particular instance felt off specifically because Aeo knows I've claimed Brandon, a town only role, and we have yet to see a counterclaim (for good reason). That made my brain jump to her teambuilding being disingenuous or designed to cast doubt on my alignment when (in my personal opinion) I feel my effort this game should indicate I'm town regardless of my role. Sadly, I am a biased human like any other

This is like archer expecting an SK counterclaim smh

[Amanuensis he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

This is like archer expecting an SK counterclaim smh

Is it? I haven't expected a counterclaim, though I suppose you're saying that in a world where I'm the (real) fake Brandon, and the (fake) real Brandon has decided to preserve their anonymity and let me do my thing, that I cannot be written off as an elim until... what? I die, or the (fake) real Brandon dies?

Problem is, I don't think I've seen you once question whether I'm seriously Brandon or not. So is this you claiming you think I'm lying?

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Is it? I haven't expected a counterclaim, though I suppose you're saying that in a world where I'm the (real) fake Brandon, and the (fake) real Brandon has decided to preserve their anonymity and let me do my thing, that I cannot be written off as an elim until... what? I die, or the (fake) real Brandon dies?

Problem is, I don't think I've seen you once question whether I'm seriously Brandon or not. So is this you claiming you think I'm lying?

Here's the thing: I have no reason to believe you are Brandon

But I also have no reason to believe you aren't Brandon.

So I'm not going to inherently v!read you because you claimed BS before everyone else, if that's what you're saying.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Ookla the Resolute said:

Here's the thing: I have no reason to believe you are Brandon

But I also have no reason to believe you aren't Brandon.

So I'm not going to inherently v!read you because you claimed BS before everyone else, if that's what you're saying.

It's not precisely. Though I do believe there's possibility/plausibility models that can be done to metaphorically cut the wheat from the chaff.

And as I said, beyond the Brandon claim, I do personally feel I am very readable here. Tho I guess not since even TKN referred to me as a brick wall, or something to that effect, which actually might make me lean town on him? Feels like an odd thing for an elim to say.

[Aeoryi she/her]

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

It's not precisely. Though I do believe there's possibility/plausibility models that can be done to metaphorically cut the wheat from the chaff.

And as I said, beyond the Brandon claim, I do personally feel I am very readable here. Tho I guess not since even TKN referred to me as a brick wall, or something to that effect, which actually might make me lean town on him? Feels like an odd thing for an elim to say.

The main reason why your BS claim is dubious is because of when you said 

"I was going to claim SK, but Archer already did that (and botched it terribly) so I'm going to claim BS instead" (paraphrased)

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

The main reason why your BS claim is dubious is because of when you said 

"I was going to claim SK, but Archer already did that (and botched it terribly) so I'm going to claim BS instead" (paraphrased)

Well I considered claiming SK to throw the elims off, so they’d likely avoid NKing me and I wouldn’t need to bother self-protecting. Playing IKYK games with my protect is a subpar strat in comparison, and the plan was to eventually clarify I’m Brandon if there was an appetite to exe me.

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Well I considered claiming SK to throw the elims off, so they’d likely avoid NKing me and I wouldn’t need to bother self-protecting. Playing IKYK games with my protect is a subpar strat in comparison, and the plan was to eventually clarify I’m Brandon if there was an appetite to exe me.

What do you think the real BS's (assuming it's not you who's BS) stance on your claim would be?

[Amanuensis he/him]

Plot Twist: What if I’m actually the SK claiming Brandon because I don’t need to self protect at all, and I’ve trying to bait their kill by promising not to self-protect. Wouldn’t that be funny

[Aeoryi she/her]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Plot Twist: What if I’m actually the SK claiming Brandon because I don’t need to self protect at all, and I’ve trying to bait their kill by promising not to self-protect. Wouldn’t that be funny

If you're the SK, please shoot ash

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

8 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

What do you think the real BS's (assuming it's not you who's BS) stance on your claim would be?

Honest answer is /shrug, as that requires me exploring a hypothetical world based on an unknown (which is who the real Brandon could be)

But if I’m really not Brandon and they’ve been letting me claim it freely, I imagine it’s because whoever they theoretically are doesn’t see much harm in my acting as a proxy. Not only does it throw off the elims, but the SK as well (assuming I’m neither while throwing off the opposite if I’m one). Possible they would believe I’m village as well due to my WiM and such

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

If you're the SK, please shoot ash

I am personally advocating the SK shoots the failing CW, so if I really am Ballistic, then will do!

Edited December 17, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Aeoryi she/her]

Tis gonna be a quiet EoD

[Amanuensis he/him]

Seems that way  not a great sign either

[Aeoryi she/her]

Hey, still a 11 page c3

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

It's not precisely. Though I do believe there's possibility/plausibility models that can be done to metaphorically cut the wheat from the chaff.

And as I said, beyond the Brandon claim, I do personally feel I am very readable here. Tho I guess not since even TKN referred to me as a brick wall, or something to that effect, which actually might make me lean town on him? Feels like an odd thing for an elim to say.

I generally find it a bit hard to read you. You, Devo, Araris, you all kind of just play the same regardless and I'm bad at noticing whatever tells there are. Kas seems to have a pretty good handle on it so I like to borrow from him at least where you're concerned.

[Amanuensis he/him]

8 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

I generally find it a bit hard to read you. You, Devo, Araris, you all kind of just play the same regardless and I'm bad at noticing whatever tells there are. Kas seems to have a pretty good handle on it so I like to borrow from him at least where you're concerned.

Good to know the feeling is mutual, at least but yeah, it's very possible v!me tends to think my alignment should be more obvious than it is, due to how much difficulty I have playing elim these days. I feel like if we took my last 5 village games and last 5 elim games and looked at post count alone, there'd be a clear difference / tell, but I've not actually crunched the numbers so idk

Edited December 17, 2023 by Amanuensis

[neil the beguiled]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Willing to acknowledge that I am undoubtedly caught up in myself  I often struggle to understand suspicion of me, but I will say that particular instance felt off specifically because Aeo knows I've claimed Brandon, a town only role, and we have yet to see a counterclaim (for good reason). That made my brain jump to her teambuilding being disingenuous or designed to cast doubt on my alignment when (in my personal opinion) I feel my effort this game should indicate I'm town regardless of my role. Sadly, I am a biased human like any other

i mean sure, but would you not say that suspicion isnt more healthy from a townmember regardless? like youve not been killed for your claim either which is enough to tilt the suspicions that you could be an elim, and while its healthier for the thread to not air these suspicions, her worldvbuilding shouldnt be suspect?? why would an elim push shade on you as a pr when youve been unquestioned and ucc'd? you think youvbe been abundantly clear you think youre town whatever; that does not mean the rest of us get that. curse of the uninformed and all that.

 

2 hours ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Yo when did Neil vote me lol

Working rn but jnv is most likely villa anyways bye so tired about to get a huge rush 

 

i voted your predecessor TvT at cycle start

 

3 hours ago, Ookla the Bald said:

I find it curious that Neil did the exact same test as me, but then got barely any information from it, meanwhile I got three elim teams in two worlds and a host of not e/e pairs. 

Almost enough to make me want to vote them again. But I won't, cause if JNV doesn't die then a solid chunk of my work is lost. I am thinking I'll go Neil off of a v!JNV flip. 

 

did you? i dont need you to shame me for my solving process, especially when i noted that the results were fairly nebulous anyways, and i dont like this pressure on me off a presumeed JNV v-flip; it reads like youre trying to chain me to a miselim.

edit:

i dont rlly... feel confident in either of these trains but they feel like they have to happen anyways

 

 

Edited December 17, 2023 by neil the beguiled

[Aeoryi she/her]

What's up people

[neil the beguiled]

Just now, Ookla the Resolute said:

What's up people

  i just ate a bee