Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Winnie the Pookla said:

Alpha is not new.

Ah. Sorry then.

 

[Kasimir he/him]

25 minutes ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

I can answer this somewhat; leaving the obvious villagers alive only works when you have enough teammates to outnumber them. Once that becomes unviable, you bite the bullet, and might as well try to kill Brandon. E!me probably would have made that kill, unless I had a different Brandon guess.

Like I said last cycle I’m gonna try and step up my game here. Minor consideration for Neil is whether Mat makes a new player into a SK, since it’s not clear he had mafia experience from signups. Otherwise he seems like he could fit that slot.

We are presumably at 5-1-1, so to win the elim needs to:

1. Not get exed
2. Get the NK past Brandon
3. Not get SK’d, reaching 2-1-1 or 3-1
4. Have a misexe option for C5
5. And the SK really doesn’t want to hit the elim

I agree with the notion that the SK wouldn’t want to look obviously village.

I started writing this post 4 hours ago and got distracted. More to come with my rereads of folks, still also kinda busy with my family. If I had to vote now it would be Illwei.

Araris, did you have to break my heart this way

[neil the beguiled]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Sorry on mobile so quoting is borky.

1. Fair enough!

2. Yeah just impulse sigh.

3. Fair  I guess it's just alien to me as a mindset. Even when I'm 3p I always want town to win. I guess I take your point anyway — just regard any credit as prima facie since Araris hasn't shown up yet.

4. Do you then think Araris or TKN bussed JNV?

^w^

i dont >:3 if im evil im evil i want town to lose even if i lose too. :evilhehe:. idk what u mean by prima facie tho im going to assume its italian and italian equals mafia thus boom bye scum!

ehhh its possible? off vote positions soley id be more willing to see TKN bussing than arasis. i think this is all just putting me into a loop of i think that tkn is probably the best shot for both SK and elim equity but i play minesweeper i dont trust like that.

1 hour ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

I can answer this somewhat; leaving the obvious villagers alive only works when you have enough teammates to outnumber them. Once that becomes unviable, you bite the bullet, and might as well try to kill Brandon. E!me probably would have made that kill, unless I had a different Brandon guess.

Like I said last cycle I’m gonna try and step up my game here. Minor consideration for Neil is whether Mat makes a new player into a SK, since it’s not clear he had mafia experience from signups. Otherwise he seems like he could fit that slot.

We are presumably at 5-1-1, so to win the elim needs to:

1. Not get exed
2. Get the NK past Brandon
3. Not get SK’d, reaching 2-1-1 or 3-1
4. Have a misexe option for C5
5. And the SK really doesn’t want to hit the elim

I agree with the notion that the SK wouldn’t want to look obviously village.

I started writing this post 4 hours ago and got distracted. More to come with my rereads of folks, still also kinda busy with my family. If I had to vote now it would be Illwei.

are roles not distributed randomly????? why would me being a new player here affect the role i am given? 

1 hour ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Then by the new player != SK 

Illwei shouldn't be SK. That makes it likely to have:

1. TKN or Araris SK

2. Probably one Elim in <TKN, Neil, Illwei> 

3. Probably one SK in <Araris, TKN>

...can you reword this for me because its not making a lot of sense to me.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

4 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

are roles not distributed randomly????? why would me being a new player here affect the role i am given? 

Roles are not always completely random, mostly since new players can be something of a wildcard and some GMs want to avoid an important role going inactive or something. Can't say what Mat did this game though, and he's not going to tell us. Feel free to totally ignore that comment.

 

8 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

ehhh its possible? off vote positions soley id be more willing to see TKN bussing than arasis. i think this is all just putting me into a loop of i think that tkn is probably the best shot for both SK and elim equity but i play minesweeper i dont trust like that.

I'm hesitant to lean elim on TKN largely because he started the day voting for me, when realistically there is little-to-no chance that an exe on me goes through (could be wrong, this is just my read on things). I also think the last elim would want to leave me alive as a potential target for the SK. I think whether or not he was bussing last cycle is a moot point, though, since both trains were elim.

[neil the beguiled]

4 minutes ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

Roles are not always completely random, mostly since new players can be something of a wildcard and some GMs want to avoid an important role going inactive or something. Can't say what Mat did this game though, and he's not going to tell us. Feel free to totally ignore that comment.

 

I'm hesitant to lean elim on TKN largely because he started the day voting for me, when realistically there is little-to-no chance that an exe on me goes through (could be wrong, this is just my read on things). I also think the last elim would want to leave me alive as a potential target for the SK. I think whether or not he was bussing last cycle is a moot point, though, since both trains were elim.

oh thats. weird???? noted but will disregard.

i mean yeah both trains were elim, but seeing as the sk shot was accepted to be going on ash, itd be better for elim wincon if they could make the ash train send instead of JNV because the shot was already on ash (and idk how much wiggle room is allowed there by way of sending kills?) but the observation seems to be that SK was at eod roughly anyways so ???? which probably again points to TKN ? sure lets rock it

theknownnovel

[Araris Valerian he/him]

22 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

oh thats. weird???? noted but will disregard.

i mean yeah both trains were elim, but seeing as the sk shot was accepted to be going on ash, itd be better for elim wincon if they could make the ash train send instead of JNV because the shot was already on ash (and idk how much wiggle room is allowed there by way of sending kills?) but the observation seems to be that SK was at eod roughly anyways so ???? which probably again points to TKN ? sure lets rock it

theknownnovel

 

Why do you think e!TKN pushes for me instead of you or Alphawei (or Coffee, who hadn't claimed yet)?

[Kasimir he/him]

Happy Rollovet to all  I'm a traditionalist, I'm afraid.

Coffee

Spoiler

 

[Coffeecat she/her]

Hey guv what's wrong?

 

Was about to post but you really just made me loose my thread of thought

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Coffeecat said:

Hey guv what's wrong?

 

Was about to post but you really just made me loose my thread of thought

You know what's wrong, Coffee

You've been lurking in thread all day.

You weren't 'about to post.' I've watched your status lurk and never blink to typing at any point

[Coffeecat she/her]

Yeah I was lurking, preparing to post? Sorry I don't have much to say right now

@Kasimirwhat do you want be to say who Im protecting? Don't think that's a good idea?

Edited December 19, 2023 by Coffeecat

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Coffeecat said:

Yeah I was lurking, preparing to post? Sorry I don't have much to say right now

You weren't preparing to post.

You were waiting and lurking for Brandon Sanderson to cc you, given everyone has shown up and asked for a cc if one exists. Expecting an Elim to cc you is not intuitive here:

And yet, you said this, as though you were preparing to be cced and to need to shade anyone who applied pressure to you for the Sanderson claim:

8 hours ago, Coffeecat said:

Hey guys, yes I'm BS claiming, and I assume the Elim is too scared to CC which I was kinda hoping for, as it would have revealed(at least to me) who the elim was. 

You are lurking, offering promissary notes, and refusing to solve, dribbling hints of your role, and only claiming Sanderson when you realised that your slip here didn't make any sense:

Because there is no world in which any Villager, much less Brandon Sanderson, should be okay with being flipped at lylo, which indicates your desire is to buy time rather than sincere.

13 hours ago, Coffeecat said:

As for the votes on me... I don't have much I want to say this cycle, all i have to say is it would be really beneficial for the village if i was alive for the 2-1-1

The thing is if you kill me you won't reach 3-1 with elims cause I'm not SK and the Elim isn't going to be able to kill the SK either. 

All I'm saying for now is, I'm ok if you want to kill me next turn, for now I would much rather be alive, does that make sense?

This is an Elim-about-to-die progression right here.

You were lurking, waiting to be called on it. Probably wondering why no one did, despite the inherent absurdity of being alright with being flipped at lylo but not now.

For clarity:

Coffee.

[Coffeecat she/her]

I think you already voted for me dude, but really who is Brandon if it's not me? Like I promise on the grave of my mother I'm not Elim. 

 

I'm the actual Brandon, sorry for being a bad player but I'm the only one you've got

[Aeoryi she/her]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

You weren't preparing to post.

You were waiting and lurking for Brandon Sanderson to cc you, given everyone has shown up and asked for a cc if one exists. Expecting an Elim to cc you is not intuitive here:

And yet, you said this, as though you were preparing to be cced and to need to shade anyone who applied pressure to you for the Sanderson claim:

You are lurking, offering promissary notes, and refusing to solve, dribbling hints of your role, and only claiming Sanderson when you realised that your slip here didn't make any sense:

Because there is no world in which any Villager, much less Brandon Sanderson, should be okay with being flipped at lylo, which indicates your desire is to buy time rather than sincere.

This is an Elim-about-to-die progression right here.

You were lurking, waiting to be called on it. Probably wondering why no one did, despite the inherent absurdity of being alright with being flipped at lylo but not now.

For clarity:

Coffee.

+ My other tunneling with Aeoryi post 

I told you if not for the BS claim I would've voted Coffee 

Coffee

Reminds me of MR56- Illwei smh

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I think you already voted for me dude, but really who is Brandon if it's not me? Like I promise on the grave of my mother I'm not Elim. 

You shouldn't disrespect your mother like that, Coffee.

You still don't have an answer for:

1. It being a classic Elim-about-to-die progression.

2. The fact that as Brandon Sanderson, you should be viscerally Not Okay with dying at lylo because your team loses. Your priorities are askew.

Edited to add:

1 minute ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

I told you if not for the BS claim I would've voted Coffee 

Oh, it is a BS claim. The fact that Coffee cannot provide any last defense of V!Coffee apart from claiming BS and is now trying to AtE makes it a BS (hi Wormmon!) claim.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Kasimir

[Coffeecat she/her]

Look I was really panicking, it was an actual BS (as the second meaning of bs)claim, I just didn't want to die and i didn't want to claim since i had to go right that moment. 

 

However you forced me to claim, sorry? I am not ok with being lynched at lylo either lol.

I just didn't want you to kill me right that moment until I could claim with time to answer questions 

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Coffeecat said:

Look I was really panicking, it was an actual BS (as the second meaning of bs)claim, I just didn't want to die and i didn't want to claim since i had to go right that moment. 

 

However you forced me to claim, sorry? I am not ok with being lynched at lylo either lol.

I just didn't want you to kill me right that moment until I could claim with time to answer questions 

Not really. It wasn't forced; just highly encouraged.

Fine. Name one SK candidate and one Elim Candidate and why.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Coffeecat said:

However you forced me to claim, sorry? I am not ok with being lynched at lylo either lol.

Sorry, but that's not what you said under pressure. You expressed a desire to live to next cycle and were fine otherwise.

Just now, Coffeecat said:

Look I was really panicking, it was an actual BS (as the second meaning of bs)claim, I just didn't want to die and i didn't want to claim since i had to go right that moment. 

Calling BS on it.

1 minute ago, Coffeecat said:

I just didn't want you to kill me right that moment until I could claim with time to answer questions 

How would I kill you 'right that moment', Coffee?

Until I voted you at Rollovet, you had a maximum of two votes, tied with the other lead train.

Why are you so defensive and hypersensitive when the cycle wasn't even over? Why should you panic when it was so early on that it could be easily resolved when you get back?

[Coffeecat she/her]

Because I had just woken up ok I'm sorry I'm a bad player but I woke up and had to run but also didn't want to get exed. And yes I am full of BS

Because I'm Brandon Sanderson I'm full of Brandon flesh ok I'm the famous writer I'm really smart but I'm a bad player what do you want from me

[Illwei]

Silber do you think that with both kas and aeoryi voting you that they're still both villagers

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, Coffeecat said:

Because I had just woken up ok I'm sorry I'm a bad player but I woke up and had to run but also didn't want to get exed. And yes I am full of BS

Because I'm Brandon Sanderson I'm full of Brandon flesh ok I'm the famous writer I'm really smart but I'm a bad player what do you want from me

V v v V

7 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

 

Fine. Name one SK candidate and one Elim Candidate and why.

^^^^

Also when is SA5 coming out (unrelated) 

 

[Kasimir he/him]

8 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

Because I'm Brandon Sanderson I'm full of Brandon flesh ok I'm the famous writer I'm really smart but I'm a bad player what do you want from me

I still don't see an answer to the questions I'm asking, Coffee

8 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

Because I had just woken up ok I'm sorry I'm a bad player but I woke up and had to run but also didn't want to get exed. And yes I am full of BS

Again, you are more interested in not being exed than solving. You panic despite it being early in the cycle, not even twenty four hours. You claim that you are alright with being exed at lylo under pressure, which indicates your honest priorities are not Village but are survival.

I continue to repeat these points. The fact your only defense is to hide behind a BS claim is powerfully indicative you don't have anything here.

Edited to add:

6 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Silber do you think that with both kas and aeoryi voting you that they're still both villagers

  I'm very interested in Coffee's answer to this question. Thank you, Eiwlil.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Kasimir

[Coffeecat she/her]

9 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Silber do you think that with both kas and aeoryi voting you that they're still both villagers

As I quite clearly said, also answering questions from kas and aeo, I believe Neil to be the Elim and I believed aeoryi is the SK still, especially since she just jumped onto me with a vote? 

As for kas, I don't even know anymore I think he is just trying to get me to do something useful for once, which is fair

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 minute ago, Coffeecat said:

As I quite clearly said, also answering questions from kas and aeo, I believe Neil to be the Elim

Could you explain your reasons for this to me? I feel like Neil has been fairly solvy this game. Definitely he's helped the village more than I have. Why are you not considering me as either the last elim or as the SK?

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

As I quite clearly said, also answering questions from kas and aeo, I believe Neil to be the Elim and I believed aeoryi is the SK still, especially since she just jumped onto me with a vote? 

As for kas, I don't even know anymore I think he is just trying to get me to do something useful for once, which is fair

Why would SK!Aeo jump on you with a vote? If I'm voting you, I'm arguing you are Evil and BSing us. I've explicitly named what you've done an Elim-about-to-die progression. SK!Aeo voting you is certifiably bonkers because that's how she loses this game.

I'd expect Coffee normally expects to counterpush me here, but it's a bit awkward when I pressured and led to the exe/deaths of two Elims last cycle.

[Aeoryi she/her]

4 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

As I quite clearly said, also answering questions from kas and aeo, I believe Neil to be the Elim and I believed aeoryi is the SK still, especially since she just jumped onto me with a vote? 

As for kas, I don't even know anymore I think he is just trying to get me to do something useful for once, which is fair

Why is Neil the Elim?