Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

As for the votes on me... I don't have much I want to say this cycle, all i have to say is it would be really beneficial for the village if i was alive for the 2-1-1

To be clear, you are claiming Brandon Sanderson?

[Coffeecat she/her]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

To be clear, you are claiming Brandon Sanderson

I'm claiming to be village, sorry if it seems I am Brandon. Though if I were Brandon I would def protect you. 

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, Coffeecat said:

Same, sorry.

 

As for the votes on me... I don't have much I want to say this cycle, all i have to say is it would be really beneficial for the village if i was alive for the 2-1-1

The thing is if you kill me you won't reach 3-1 with elims cause I'm not SK and the Elim isn't going to be able to kill the SK either. 

All I'm saying for now is, I'm ok if you want to kill me next turn, for now I would much rather be alive, does that make sense?

If you wanna claim BS go ahead- it'll actually help us more.

In an ideal world, BS claims, and if another BS claims (REAL BS PLEASE COUNTERCLAIM)

then  if we have two claims, we treat it like standard seeker doctrine- lynch one and if they flip v, lynch the other. If there's only one, then we have reduced our PoE.

Your right about the sk btw. We have to exe them, not leaving it for the elims. At this juncture, I think the prospect of the elims hitting the SK is extremely likely, and with a BS claim it would instantly reveal who the SK is, lowering our Poe

1 minute ago, Coffeecat said:

I'm claiming to be village, sorry if it seems I am Brandon. Though if I were Brandon I would def protect you. 

Bruh

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

To be clear, you are claiming Brandon Sanderson?

Kas my tunnel has grown more do you like my visuals of my tunneling with aeoryi?

 

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

As for the votes on me... I don't have much I want to say this cycle, all i have to say is it would be really beneficial for the village if i was alive for the 2-1-1

The thing is if you kill me you won't reach 3-1 with elims cause I'm not SK and the Elim isn't going to be able to kill the SK either. 

All I'm saying for now is, I'm ok if you want to kill me next turn, for now I would much rather be alive, does that make sense?

1 minute ago, Coffeecat said:

I'm claiming to be village, sorry if it seems I am Brandon. Though if I were Brandon I would def protect you. 

This makes no sense. 

If you are claiming to be Village and we kill you during the 2-1-1, we lose. There is no world in which you should be okay dying next Turn but not this one. Keeping you alive doesn't help us PoE-wise - it does help us if I survive as I'm very clearly either Village or the SK, and Sanderson should claim next Turn, leaving us (if he doesn't die), two easy clears. The fact you now deny being Sanderson raises enough red flags for a Spanish matador.

I am going to repeat my question.

If you are a Villager, prove it.

I want to know your top SK candidate and your top Elim candidate.

[Coffeecat she/her]

Look Im gonna go ahead and claim Brandon, however I have to go right this momenti promise when I return I will answer these and any other questuobs

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Kasimir said:

This makes no sense. 

If you are claiming to be Village and we kill you during the 2-1-1, we lose. There is no world in which you should be okay dying next Turn but not this one. Keeping you alive doesn't help us PoE-wise - it does help us if I survive as I'm very clearly either Village or the SK, and Sanderson should claim next Turn, leaving us (if he doesn't die), two easy clears. The fact you now deny being Sanderson raises enough red flags for a Spanish matador.

I am going to repeat my question.

If you are a Villager, prove it.

I want to know your top SK candidate and your top Elim candidate.

Welp, I'm adding that to my tunneling with aeoryi session gimme a quick sec

Just now, Coffeecat said:

Look Im gonna go ahead and claim Brandon, however I have to go right this momenti promise when I return I will answer these and any other questuobs

Okay.

please please please if you are the real Brandon Sanderson please claim

it's only logical that you should. 

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

Look Im gonna go ahead and claim Brandon, however I have to go right this momenti promise when I return I will answer these and any other questuobs

@Ookla the Resolute?

Coffee barring a cc.

Edited to add:

Coffee, I still want to know your top SK candidate and your top Elim candidate. Being Brandon doesn't give you an excuse to avoid Village work.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Kasimir

[Aeoryi she/her]

Nnooo- okay thank the shards my post was saved

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Ookla the Resolute?

Coffee barring a cc.

coffee

let's look at the possibilities: LOGIC

Spoiler

TKN , Araris, Illwei, Neil

2x Villagers

1x SK

1x Eliminator

Spoiler

Okay right off the bat I'm going to say this: Illwei does not have enough content to make a significant read off of. so they're effectively null, except one point in their favour:

0. Illwei said the description of JNV and ash matched the Descriptions of a hiding elim

That leaves us with TKN, Neil, and Araris. Let's look at the logistics:

1. The Araris tie. This could be explained by: 

1. Jnv and ash weren't on eod (likely)
2. They were okay with araris dying to the coin (unlikely)

This means the araris tie is effectively NAI. 

2. Neil's high activity:

1. Interestingly, neil (forgot what pronouns sorry just gonna use he/him) was the one wanting JNV to be reread. 
2. They haven't really done any red flag worthy posts yet
3. Have admitted they have a low number of posts relative to what they thought they had

3. I will reiterate what I've already said about TKN:

41 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

 

Top SK candidate: Neil and TKN

I could see araris here as well. Now the thing is, I haven't been actively searching for the SK, and really because there isn't any need to. If coffee truly is elim, exeing them ends the game with a w for village.

I'll lay out the little pieces of evidence I have for both:

TKN: only helps in gears like scenarios. Very much like gears this game IMO. Don't know who gears is? exactly. the thing is, in such a non-committal mindset and post composition, it just makes them come off as being able to play both sides. I'd say this is partially true for araris, but the ravenhaslanded sk kill doesn't make much sense from an araris standpoint. I'm not sure what other signs an SK might show, since they're quite rare in SE, but those are what I think might be signals for a potential SK!Araris/T(SK)N

This, also with:

• They could not describe JNV's E!meta despite playing with them as elim the most recently. This is both a point for, and a point against, as e!tkn could probably get away with saying v!jnv is matching their current activity levels, but also, refusal to give a stance on an elim is always a noteworthy sign.

4. Araris Overall:

• Fair logic
• Not trying to influence events too much
• Hasn't really shown aggression towards or against those e!reading jnv and ash

5. The conclusion: 

Until proven otherwise, I think Illwei is the least villagery, and thus I will vote on her.

Illwei

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

coffee

Any reason you didn't want to unvote?

I felt it seemed plausible on the face of it: it's rough for an Elim or SK to claim Brandon here. I guess Coffee would be screwed either way, but being cced in a thunderdome is a death sentence. Obviously, if there's a cc, the calculus changes.

[Aeoryi she/her]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Any reason you didn't want to unvote?

I felt it seemed plausible on the face of it: it's rough for an Elim or SK to claim Brandon here. I guess Coffee would be screwed either way, but being cced in a thunderdome is a death sentence. Obviously, if there's a cc, the calculus changes.

I did unvote wdym?

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Ookla the Resolute said:

I did unvote wdym?

It wasn't an immediate reaction. My reflex was to do so, and I found your hesitation strange.

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Kasimir said:

It wasn't an immediate reaction. My reflex was to do so, and I found your hesitation strange.

I was too busy figuring out who to vote- and mind you, I still think coffee is fairly sus if not for the brandon Sanderson claim. 

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

I was too busy figuring out who to vote- and mind you, I still think coffee is fairly sus if not for the brandon Sanderson claim. 

Fair, it do be that way. Sorry Aeo, pretty sure you're V but I have an SK slot I'm making considerations about  

Edited to add:

Aeo - FWIW I don't disagree. I think this does explain why Coffee was relatively unwilling to buy Aman's fakeclaim though, because I'd honestly thought it plausible within Aman's range, especially given Aman's proficiency at gambits and the fact it was coming on the heels of an obvious fakeclaim.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Kasimir

[Aeoryi she/her]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Aeo - FWIW I don't disagree. I think this does explain why Coffee was relatively unwilling to buy Aman's fakeclaim though, because I'd honestly thought it plausible within Aman's range, especially given Aman's proficiency at gambits and the fact it was coming on the heels of an obvious fakeclaim.

Well, this puts us at a poe of 《Illwei, Neil》 and I think neil is far more villagery acting

But I don't want to overlook e!araris- as I said earlier, the araris tie is practically nai

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

But I don't want to overlook e!araris- as I said earlier, the araris tie is practically nai

Is it?

Araris is endangered. Ash and JNV, emphasis JNV, return. Neither of them feel the need to vote.

I'd note as well that the E!kill patterns so far actually don't fully fit Araris's kill meta IMO.

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Is it?

Araris is endangered. Ash and JNV, emphasis JNV, return. Neither of them feel the need to vote.

I'd note as well that the E!kill patterns so far actually don't fully fit Araris's kill meta IMO.

Did jnv return c2 eod? if he did my calculus is seriously wrong

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Did jnv return c2 eod? if he did my calculus is seriously wrong

About 3AM thereabouts my time - brief post, lurked in thread for a while after that. Sorry, I wish I could be more specific, but yeah, I'm tired. The point is that the Cash/Araris thunderdome was stable by that point and for a decent chunk of EoD - JNV being present especially but unwilling to vote indicates they didn't feel any real need to IMO. In turn, that probably suggests they felt disengaged from the ongoing exe, i.e. teammate not on the chopping block. Give me a sec and I'll edit in the post ref.

Edited to add:

Here's the JNV post. I think E!JNV hits the doc first and drops a quick post if Araris is this endangered. You could argue risk tolerance, but I don't feel that's the natural thought here, seeing JNV never returned. It reads more to me like JNV was content to stay out of it.

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Kasimir

[Aeoryi she/her]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

About 3AM thereabouts my time - brief post, lurked in thread for a while after that. Sorry, I wish I could be more specific, but yeah, I'm tired. The point is that the Cash/Araris thunderdome was stable by that point and for a decent chunk of EoD - JNV being present especially but unwilling to vote indicates they didn't feel any real need to IMO. In turn, that probably suggests they felt disengaged from the ongoing exe, i.e. teammate not on the chopping block. Give me a sec and I'll edit in the post ref.

Edited to add:

Here's the JNV post. I think E!JNV hits the doc first and drops a quick post if Araris is this endangered. You could argue risk tolerance, but I don't feel that's the natural thought here, seeing JNV never returned. It reads more to me like JNV was content to stay out of it.

 

Yeah. I agree now. 

That effectively puts us at:

don't kill: Kas Aeo Araris Coffee

Poe: Neil TKN Illwei

With TKN straggling in the middle of those two

[Kasimir he/him]

23 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Yeah. I agree now. 

That effectively puts us at:

don't kill: Kas Aeo Araris Coffee

Poe: Neil TKN Illwei

With TKN straggling in the middle of those two

According to Tallybot (yes, yes, orgo vcs but why should I bother when we have Mat for that >:P)

Quote

Vote Tally
neil the beguiled (2): Coffeecat, Ooklil the Wei
Araris Valerian (1): Ookla the Bald
Illwei (1): Ookla the Resolute

I'll double up on Illwei as I believe in ties and think I'm okay with V!Araris for now.

Edited to add:

@Ookla the Bald: Additional question. You said you'd've voted Cash. Today, you're pushing Araris. Why?

Edited to add 2:

1 hour ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Your right about the sk btw. We have to exe them, not leaving it for the elims. At this juncture, I think the prospect of the elims hitting the SK is extremely likely, and with a BS claim it would instantly reveal who the SK is, lowering our Poe

Flagged this but forgot.

Why should we?

An Elim wants us to hit the SK (yes, I'm aware I was talking about blue before red but then I remembered something really important.) We win and end this game when we exe the last Elim. This means that all things being equal, we really shouldn't be SK hunting. We get the Elim, game over. We win.

I was sitting on this, but:

Our win condition for this cycle as Village: exe red. The SK's win condition for this cycle is to prevent us from exeing red and also not get exed. The Elim's win condition for this cycle is to prevent us from exeing them, while thinning our numbers, and somehow not dying to the SK kill, so not appearing too Villagery.

SK hunting is the wrong way to go.

The point of me asking the questions I'm asking is because your SK candidates are naturally players you shouldn't be emphasising. They don't give us the chance to lock this game down and win this cycle. In fact, they probably help with exclusion, unless you think a player is likely to be E or an SK.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Kasimir

[Aeoryi she/her]

33 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

1 hour ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Your right about the sk btw. We have to exe them, not leaving it for the elims. At this juncture, I think the prospect of the elims hitting the SK is extremely likely, and with a BS claim it would instantly reveal who the SK is, lowering our Poe

Flagged this but forgot.

Why should we?

An Elim wants us to hit the SK (yes, I'm aware I was talking about blue before red but then I remembered something really important.) We win and end this game when we exe the last Elim. This means that all things being equal, we really shouldn't be SK hunting. We get the Elim, game over. We win.

I was sitting on this, but:

Our win condition for this cycle as Village: exe red. The SK's win condition for this cycle is to prevent us from exeing red and also not get exed. The Elim's win condition for this cycle is to prevent us from exeing them, while thinning our numbers, and somehow not dying to the SK kill, so not appearing too Villagery.

SK hunting is the wrong way to go.

The point of me asking the questions I'm asking is because your SK candidates are naturally players you shouldn't be emphasising. They don't give us the chance to lock this game down and win this cycle. In fact, they probably help with exclusion, unless you think a player is likely to be E or an SK.

Edited 10 minutes ago by Kasimir

It's more of a mechanical thing I'm noting here: if we want the sk out of the game the elims aren't going to do it for us.

That's not to say that we should, necessarily, as I've said multiple times, the village wincon is to kill all elims, and the sk can be left out of that. 

I'm hoping the elims accidentally hit the sk for the nk and accidentally reveal the sk identity in front of everyone, narrowing poe even farther

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

My current guess is sk!Neil and e!Araris. 

[Kasimir he/him]

I still have work and RL but I want to go through some of the basic vote counts and see what we can glean. I'll try to do vote progression analysis later when I have a chunk of time.

Cycle One:

Flip Edition:

Quote

Archer (4): Araris, Raven, Wiz, Ravenclaw
JNV (1): Kas
Aeo (3): Cash, Aeo, Devo
Wiz (1): Archer
Ravenclaw (2): Neil, Aman
No Vote (5): Alpha, JNV, Ash, Coffee, TKN

Agreed RL may interfere, but again - Ash and JNV both showed up and then didn't. Neil's Ravenclaw CW happens around the time both JNV and Ash face some pressure (though that eventually melts away), which might suggest Neil is a potential partner here.

I continue to be very struck by the fact most of the last minute vote movers were Village: <Neil, Raven, Wiz, Devo, Aman>, which is strongly suggestive, as I've argued, of high Elim contentment with this state of affairs. (Aeo intercepting an exe for Ash is probably the biggest gift the Elims received C1, which is why we don't do that >>)

Credence Edition:

Quote

Archer (4): Araris, Raven, Wiz, Ravenclaw
JNV (1): Kas
Aeo (3): Cash, Aeo, Devo
Wiz (1): Archer
Ravenclaw (2): Neil, Aman
No Vote (5): Alpha, JNV, Ash, Coffee, TKN

My argument for V!TKN is the JNV vote and the fact JNV just seemed to overlook TKN in their initial reads before being called out about it, i.e. being just as oddly understanding of TKN as they were of Aeo and Archer.

Cycle Two

Flip Edition:

Quote

Araris (4): Neil, Coffee, Aeo, Kas
Cash (4): Devo, Araris, Wiz, Aman
Wiz (1): Cash
No Vote (4): Alpha, Ash, JNV, TKN

Credence Edition:

Quote

Araris (4): Neil, Coffee, Aeo, Kas
Cash (4): Devo, Araris, Wiz, Aman
Wiz (1): Cash
No Vote (4): Alpha, Ash, JNV, TKN

Second time an entire train is exterminated except for Araris, FWIW. Again, from Ash's and JNV's relative inactivity, I'd argue they're relatively content with this state of affairs. It's true the Araris train only picked up momentum after JNV left, but with some votes on Araris, I'd expect JNV to have realised they needed to check in.

(I have additional thoughts here about Araris's kill MO FWIW.)

Cycle Three

Flip Edition:

Quote

JNV (4): Araris, Aeo, TKN, Kas
Ash (2): Aman, JNV
No Vote (4): Neil, Coffee, Ash, Illwei

Credences Edition:

Quote

JNV (4): Araris, Aeo, TKN, Kas
Ash (2): Aman, JNV
No Vote (4): Neil, Coffee, Ash, Illwei

I think it's reasonable to argue the JNV train is pretty pure, which means at most one of <Araris, TKN> are Evil.

Relative inaction from Neil, Coffee, Ash, and Illwei is interesting - Ash was potentially too inactive, though I recall seeing him in thread a few times. Illwei makes a mixed argument for JNV, but, crucially, refuses to vote on them. 

Neil tries to direct traffic to Illwei, but at the same time, unvotes Illwei despite arguing her slot is red.

Also, @neil the beguiled - One more question I had I suppose. This was something that was bothering me a bit, which is: suppose you are correct in arguing that zero take-up on AlphaWei indicates AlphaWei is Evil. (You made this claim last cycle, here.)

Quote

science results: yeah i have no clue. full transparency ig, i wanted to put a vote down there to see how the greater thread would interact with it- the fact that it wasnt piled on at all generally indicates a red slot- ie to say if it was green the elims would take bait of it.  issue is i was not expecting a sub in at all-

Why then do you unvote her? Shouldn't the obvious inference be: these trains are wrong, I need to steer people onto AlphaWei?

Coffee as claimed is BS, therefore confirmed Village.

Araris dropped a poke vote on JNV that never moved. @Winnie the Pookla Want your assessment of this cycle.

But we also know something very interesting: the Elims significantly altered their kill MO. This is because instead of leaving the <Aman, Kas, Aeo, Neil> set untouched, they started to shoot inside the set. If you theorise, as Araris initially did, that they didn't want to mess around with Aman playing IKYK games, then they clearly changed their mind. What was the factor here?

1. Kill MO swamping, potentially: perhaps one of <Ash, JNV> or a teammate didn't want to kill aggressively but felt the need to when they perceived the Village was getting its drek together.

2. The theory that Aman was BS - but again, if true, why dare the shot now? Other easy ways to take out discussion people, including me, especially since Coffee, Neil, Illwei, Aeo were all shading Aman.

(I'm questioning FWIW if this shot is an Araris shot in the first place. It doesn't quite feel correct.)

@Ookla the Bald Reasons?

[Illwei]

@Kasimir 

I don't really have any real meta on neil- he's (theoretically) watched a lot of my turbos as he's hosted them often, but I can only remember one game I played with him in it and I honestly can't remember much

@neil the beguiled 

you say something about me misrepresenting your posts or whatnot, but I don't remember calling you a blind sheep. I said your posts have little substance comparative to how much you've posted, which you acknowledged as true. 

@Ookla the Resolute

I'd be proud if you worked on formatting your posts

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

I'd be proud if you worked on formatting your posts

 

[Coffeecat she/her]

Hey guys, yes I'm BS claiming, and I assume the Elim is too scared to CC which I was kinda hoping for, as it would have revealed(at least to me) who the elim was. 

As for my suspicions, I still think Neil is a good Elim candidate, with all the votes they got involved in.

 I also think that Aeoryi is the SK solely due to their behavior, it seems evil, but not teamed with anyone, if that makes sense. I also agree we shouldn't be necessarily be going for the SK, but of course killing the SK wouldn't be too bad as it might save us a turn or two. Unless the SK manages to kill the Elim for us. Please.