Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[Illwei]

2 minutes ago, Aeoryi said:

Ah. Okay. Got it.

How long is your doc?

When i got here it was empty but it's at about 6 pages now

[Araris Valerian he/him]

There definitely is a play for the elim and the SK to both claim Brandon here, counterclaiming the real one. Didn't want to bring it up earlier in the turn in case they actually did it but it might have worked had anyone but Kas been Brandon.

[Mat he/him]

I'm fully trusting tallybot on this one because my count had Aeo voting Illwei and Illwei voting Coffee but ultimately it doesn't matter because Coffee is a clear leader either way

• neil the beguiled (2): Coffeecat, Illwei/Ooklil
• Coffeecat (5): Kasimir, Araris Valerian/Pookla, The Known Novel/Bald, Aeoryi, neil the beguiled

2.5 hours!

[Mat he/him]

That's the end! Of the cycle!

[Mat he/him]

MR67: Cycle Five: Brandon Sanderson???

"I'm Brandon Sanderson! I'm Brandon Sanderson! I'm Brandon Sanderson!"

What on earth?

Mat hurried around the corner into the exhibit hall, drawn by the frantic yelling. He'd been puzzling over the remaining threats to the convention on his own, untrusting as he was, but this seemed worth his time.

When he saw who was doing the yelling, he blinked, coming to a halt. It was Coffeecat. Silber, as he'd originally known her. She'd been a player in his first ever SE game, but then again, so had twenty-nine others.

But she was definitely not Brandon Sanderson.

He locked eyes with her. "I'm Brandon Sanderson!" she yelled, shaking a fist at the sky.

Kasim stepped forward from where he'd been watching this unfold across the room. Mat watched as the man firmly grabbed Coffee's arm. "No," he said calmly. "You're not."

Coffee snapped her gaze to meet his, eyes crazed. No, not crazed. Ballistic. Mat almost cried a warning, but his breath caught in his throat.

In an instant, the situation was swapped, Coffee having slammed her free fist into Kasim's gut to escape and then grabbing his throat in a choke hold. The other SErs-- all five still remaining-- burst from the crowd to rush to Kasim's aid. The next few moments were a chaotic mess of tangled punches and confused fighting, but the madness soon cleared up.

Leaving Aeoryi and Araris dead on the floor, alongside Coffee, who was unconscious but still visibly breathing. Mat felt dizzy for what he had just witnessed. Kasim knelt on the ground next to the two fallen, seeming to be barely breathing himself.

The other SErs-- all three still remaining-- backed off. A small piece of paper fluttered onto the ground, but no one seemed to notice.

Mat walked over silently and picked up the paper.

Not done yet.

Kasim reverently stood, slinging Coffee's body over his shoulder to presumably hand over to the police when this was all finally over.

*     *     *

Coffeecat was removed from the convention! She was the Ballistic SEr!

Aeoryi was killed! She was a Reasonable SEr!

Araris Valerian / Winnie the Pookla was killed! He was a Reasonable SEr!

Vote Count:

• neil the beguiled (2): Coffeecat, Illwei/Ooklil
• Coffeecat (5): Kasimir, Araris Valerian/Pookla, The Known Novel/Bald, Aeoryi, neil the beguiled

Cycle Five has begun, and will end in about 48 hours, on Thursday, December 21, at 3pm PST.

• There will be an execution today, with no vote minimum and RNGd ties. When voting, please also vote using a non-Ookla name if possible.
• If you think you've completed your convention game task and haven't heard from me, please let me know. I'm not taking the time to check on everyone's progress, if you want the point, say it!  
• Remember to submit any actions you may have.
• PMs are closed.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Ookla of Ravens / TheRavenHasLanded - Reasonable SEr
2. Ookla the Raveness / The Wandering Wizard - Wizzy - Reasonable SEr
3. @Ookla the Bald / The Known Novel - Shane Huge
4. Ookla the Paradigm / Archer - Reasonable SEr
5. Winnie the Pookla / Araris Valerian - Reasonable SEr
6. Aeoryi - Reasonable SEr
7. Ookla thePresentParticiple / Ravenclawjedi42 - Reasonable SEr
8.  @WildKarrde  / Kasim  -  (@Kasimir) 
9. JNV - Crazed SEr
10. Devotary of Spontaneity - Lena - Reasonable SEr
11. @Ooklil the Wei / Illwei
12. Coffeecat / Silberfarben - Ballistic SEr
13. @neil the beguiled
14. Amanuensis - Reasonable SEr
15. Ashbringer - Crazed SEr
16. Ookla the Rich / Cash67 - Reasonable SEr

 

[Illwei]

I mean, I'm probably just going to vote neil again today. Should probably look through TKN's stuff again but i don't know if i honestly will

[Kasimir he/him]

@Winnie the Pookla I know what you said but you can't tell me self-protecting so you die here was worth the cost Porch Bro

Illwei pending rereads.

[Illwei]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

@Winnie the Pookla I know what you said but you can't tell me self-protecting so you die here was worth the cost Porch Bro

Illwei pending rereads.

you believe the entire team was comprised of inactives?

[Kasimir he/him]

54 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

you believe the entire team was comprised of inactives?

Do you believe Mat a prophet?

[Illwei]

I'm not asking from a metagame view

EDIT:

From mostly a NK view

Edited December 20, 2023 by Ooklil the Wei
clarification

[Kasimir he/him]

12 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

I'm not asking from a metagame view

EDIT:

From mostly a NK view

I see JNV's and Ash's MOs all over the NKs, potentially up to their deaths so yes. I struggle with how much they can swamp a kill MO from you or Neil. I am not willing to completely ignore TKN here but don't feel it adds up in general. 

Why should I V!read you?

[Illwei]

14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I see JNV's and Ash's MOs all over the NKs, potentially up to their deaths so yes. I struggle with how much they can swamp a kill MO from you or Neil. I am not willing to completely ignore TKN here but don't feel it adds up in general. 

Why should I V!read you?

Why aren't you?

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Why aren't you?

Do you believe the default read ascribed a player should be Village or do you believe they should have to demonstrate they are Village?

[Illwei]

I believe that i've been towny enough to a degree where you should have to list reasons you think I'm the wolf here

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

I believe that i've been towny enough to a degree where you should have to list reasons you think I'm the wolf here

Cool. Then I believe STINK's answer here is correct: Illwei.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Hmm. Neil for now. I'm not convinced Illwei comes in at the speed she came in as an elim.

[Kasimir he/him]

14 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

Hmm. Neil for now. I'm not convinced Illwei comes in at the speed she came in as an elim.

I'm not a fan of her last cycle and feels she metascrews enough to want to avoid giving easy credit here wrt her C3 in light of C4. On some level you can consider this a laconic rejection of her assertion of where the burden of proof should be—if you aren't interested in helping the Village make sure this shouldn't come down to a coin flip (on the assumption I once again fail my save), then I'm not interested in how you think I should assess you.

Am probably OK with V!you but would still reread once more to be sure. Ironically, would you have killed Araris?

Not interested in moving my vote anytime soon however. STINK is based and wise on the purpose of voting. 

[neil the beguiled]

ah it comes down tto this. nicely played coffee, i uhm. didnt expect that at all. (usually by the time one fake claim dies the next claim is real ;_;)

im gonna be real with you i am oin vacation at the moment so my avaliability is not great, but i think this kinda boils down to illwei, which is a really... feelsbadman moment.  this might be stupid to ask but generally would you skip here at mylo or go for the guns here?

 

@Kasimir what is STINK? 

i think something to be thought here is why you... are here. why are you here for the wolf wincon? youre here at final 4, why do the wolves want you here? have your reads been wolfsided (cough kas cough me cough) have you been tunneled (cough) or are you the wolf's final miselim?

i'm honestly a bit... curious here but question, illwei youve kinda just chalked up a vague sus on me but idrt youve listed any reason and you pushed me off c3 (to be fair ive been... ahem busy). like. i get that you dont have gameplay from a longforum game from me in your repitoire but i know i can be an easy miselim, especially to people who dont know my meta xD. ive long surpassed my own wolf meta here fmpov and i dont think that this push is in good faith at all x3

(im using x3 to seem more menacing but i WILL bring out the eel teeth. when i find the image box.)

[Illwei]

51 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

this might be stupid to ask but generally would you skip here at mylo or go for the guns here?

Most games you can't skip and even if you tried it would have to be by not voting, which means the elims will be able to snipe last minute.

This game is no vote minimum ties rand, so in the case that no one voted to skip and the elims didn't snipe, it would still be randed between all living players

EDIT

51 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

i'm honestly a bit... curious here but question, illwei youve kinda just chalked up a vague sus on me but idrt youve listed any reason and you pushed me off c3 (to be fair ive been... ahem busy). like. i get that you dont have gameplay from a longforum game from me in your repitoire but i know i can be an easy miselim, especially to people who dont know my meta xD. ive long surpassed my own wolf meta here fmpov and i dont think that this push is in good faith at all x3

You've highposted while not contributing much.

and I'm very often miselimed as well. Easy proof for you to find are my two champs games.

Edited December 20, 2023 by Ooklil the Wei

[Kasimir he/him]

4 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

but i think this kinda boils down to illwei, which is a really... feelsbadman moment.

Why? I think TKN is a decent shout here too.

4 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

generally would you skip here at mylo or go for the guns here?

I'd never skip here. I think the point of the full forty-eight hours is to get it right, and I'm suspicious of this response as I don't feel it comes from a Village mindset. If I block correctly, we can have second lylo. If I don't, we go to a coinflip, which is not the worst but not the best either. In short, avoid the wrong choice here.

Edited to add: I'd understand if this is an F3 given the landscape, but this is an F4 which means the answer is less clear-cut here. Even then, no thank you, my job is to get it right.

4 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

@Kasimir what is STINK? 

STINK is a player who signed up as a PH. STINK's philosophy of voting is that a vote is simply an 'I want you dead' button. Doing reasoned analysis is a sufficient condition for pressing it. Wanting the player dead is a necessary condition for pressing it. You and you alone decide when you want to press it and what for - no one else gets to tell you, because it's your vote and the basic premise of the game. Sure, you can argue there are normative ideals governing how one Should Play The Platonic Game, but I still want you dead, too bad ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

In general, I think STINK voting is the best response to an obdurate player. If they're not interested in giving good faith responses that aren't circular in reasoning and therefore justification, you're under no obligation to seek higher normative ideals when choosing to press the button.

(I'm aware of Illwei's views on Villager confidence - I don't feel they're worth anything at this point because she metascrews. It's okay for a C3 read and unacceptable at lylo.)

4 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

i think something to be thought here is why you... are here. why are you here for the wolf wincon? youre here at final 4, why do the wolves want you here? have your reads been wolfsided (cough kas cough me cough) have you been tunneled (cough) or are you the wolf's final miselim?

I have asked myself this and I don't think it's constructive. In part because thread consensus and the Plan yesterday was that I protect myself in order to make sure I make it to the next cycle and can try to stop a kill here to buy us more time. In part, I suppose, because neither of them wanted to concentrate the kill on me. In part because, as I see it, if you think there's a deliberate reason I'm kept alive, this likely rules out TKN and to a weaker extent, Illwei.

Given my E!Illwei credences, and my history of strong clashes with Illwei, it is extremely unlikely E!Illwei chooses to keep me alive here. She isn't that delusional. (Okay, screwy options, but if E!Illwei, then V!me and V!you go against her. Is she expecting to persuade V!TKN here? TKN isn't that kinda guy.) Agreed, this is perhaps diluted by the fact the plan is for me to self-protect, but if we bracket that as you ask, then that's the strong conclusion.

Then we can even go for the NKA option.

We have two deaths: Aeo and Araris. I feel that Araris is more likely the Elim kill here - Aeo is likely Coffee's kill. Probably because Aeo is least in the suspect pool, and Coffee is helping the last Elim out (or a classic mercyshot.)

The thing is, I feel like in most worlds, I'm TKN's shot of choice here, if not a little earlier. I'm the player he always wants to take down for whatever reason, and TKN is into aggressive control/noise kills. TKN suggesting I self-protect is kind of whack because he didn't need to do that. I also lean a bit towards Araris's views on TKN, but would need to re-read the cycles first to confirm my views on TKN. Aeo and Araris aren't really TKN shots. Maybe Aeo, but not necessarily Araris. You could argue given TKN was locked onto Araris and never bothered to revise his theory, Araris is a decent shot for him since he wasn't likely to get that ML off. But not sure.

Araris feels like a tougher shot for Illwei but I think Araris's last post makes him appear Village, and Araris was sussing Illwei before he died and before the Coffee v. me clash derailed the previous trains. It's clear E!Illwei never shoots you, and with TKN's theoretical low activity bracket status, maybe.

I think you shooting Araris is an eh choice. You had accepted V!TKN, meaning a TKN shot was probably better. I don't think you said much about Araris but still had him in PoE. Maybe you expected credence revision off his last post, IDK.

tldr; there's no way in hell anyone shot anyone in the <you, Illwei> pool today. Aeo was probably dead, and one in <me, TKN, Araris.> Araris over TKN is a bit of a Choice that makes me squint at TKN, but there's a bit more of a negative connection to Illwei there than you.

The most Illwei has going for her are all negative arguments, and I'm not a fan of negative arguments in lylo.

Your thread presence diminished after C1-C2, which makes it much harder to solidify a non-provisional read at lylo.

Edited December 20, 2023 by Kasimir

[Illwei]

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Your thread presence diminished after C1-C2, which makes it much harder to solidify a non-provisional read at lylo.

Ah yes, just like a villager would- dropping in activity after two elims die. (this is sarcasm (because that's a >rand!E move)

Also Kas whatever time you would use to play this game please go have some tea or go take a nap because you're obviously tilted from last cycle still
--

And I forgot about it but my other reason I suspect Neil is because of EoD C3 and how it played out. it's a small point because he didn't try to go anywhere else, but there wasn't really anyone on with anywhere else to go.

I commented on how i thought JNV was going to flip villa close to EoD but not one person interacted with it or tried to push on it, Kinda wish i didn't say i was leaving thread again and hopefully seen more people interact with that.
--

There is potentially a thought with JNV's one (real) post, and who they decided to push, which was TKN and Ash. The fact that they voted ash instead of off wagon probably isn't important because there wasn't really anywhere else to go, unless they wanted to vote neil or me (though Neil took his vote off me, TKN I thought still had a vote on neil even though it's not shown in the votecount? Though I don't see where it dissappeared.) But when he voted ash he put it up to three, tying the vote at the time I believe, and voting Neil or me woulda put it at two. woulda probably set up good for Ash had only one of them died.
Still find that strange because supposing Ash did get on and vote, then there was a potential chance for a counterwagon to both of them. It would however require all of the Elims voting together and then not getting killed by the SK that night to have a shot though.

Ending question is really just if it's something JNV would do- to just sus both his teammates right before he potentially dies, or he kills one of them.

Rambling thoughts not feeling great this morning but there's more I'm  trying to look at but I know that the moment I hit send on this I'll feel less motivated to but I'm disorganized right now and don't want to put out a post bigger than this with minimal formatting because it'll be hard to read through

Edited December 20, 2023 by Ooklil the Wei

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Ah yes, just like a villager would- dropping in activity after two elims die. (this is sarcasm (because that's a >rand!E move)

I'm commenting about Neil, not you. I've just come off from reading C3 and think Neil looks a bit worse than you from it but both of you just look pretty negative from it.

3 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Also Kas whatever time you would use to play this game please go have some tea or go take a nap because you're obviously tilted from last cycle still

I'd note here that being condescending after asserting you are so Village no one should question it in a classical case of circular reasoning is certainly how you convince people to decide it's worth keeping their vote on you

I'm certainly happy to just leave it on you and take the rest of the cycle off.

Actually you know what? Thank you for the advice - I'll do just that. See all of you after rollover, or after the Aftermath. Goodnight everyone

[Illwei]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'd note here that being condescending after asserting you are so Village no one should question it in a classical case of circular reasoning is certainly how you convince people to decide it's worth keeping their vote on you

This post from you only proves that you're still tilted, seeing that as condescending.

but if you're fine losing like this then honestly I'm done trying and gonna log off and play minecraft.

EDIT:

I'm not about to waste my time doing work when you're set on seeing everything I do in a negative light purely because you're still tilted from Silber.

Edited December 20, 2023 by Ooklil the Wei

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Ooklil the Wei said:

This post from you only proves that you're still tilted, seeing that as condescending.

Self-awareness: 200%, statement of the problem.

[Illwei]

TKN