Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

neil the beguiled · December 20, 2023

13 hours ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Most games you can't skip and even if you tried it would have to be by not voting, which means the elims will be able to snipe last minute.

This game is no vote minimum ties rand, so in the case that no one voted to skip and the elims didn't snipe, it would still be randed between all living players

EDIT

You've highposted while not contributing much.

and I'm very often miselimed as well. Easy proof for you to find are my two champs games.

okay, noted.

and ill ogve them a look

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Why? I think TKN is a decent shout here too.

I'd never skip here. I think the point of the full forty-eight hours is to get it right, and I'm suspicious of this response as I don't feel it comes from a Village mindset. If I block correctly, we can have second lylo. If I don't, we go to a coinflip, which is not the worst but not the best either. In short, avoid the wrong choice here.

Edited to add: I'd understand if this is an F3 given the landscape, but this is an F4 which means the answer is less clear-cut here. Even then, no thank you, my job is to get it right.

STINK is a player who signed up as a PH. STINK's philosophy of voting is that a vote is simply an 'I want you dead' button. Doing reasoned analysis is a sufficient condition for pressing it. Wanting the player dead is a necessary condition for pressing it. You and you alone decide when you want to press it and what for - no one else gets to tell you, because it's your vote and the basic premise of the game. Sure, you can argue there are normative ideals governing how one Should Play The Platonic Game, but I still want you dead, too bad ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

In general, I think STINK voting is the best response to an obdurate player. If they're not interested in giving good faith responses that aren't circular in reasoning and therefore justification, you're under no obligation to seek higher normative ideals when choosing to press the button.

(I'm aware of Illwei's views on Villager confidence - I don't feel they're worth anything at this point because she metascrews. It's okay for a C3 read and unacceptable at lylo.)

I have asked myself this and I don't think it's constructive. In part because thread consensus and the Plan yesterday was that I protect myself in order to make sure I make it to the next cycle and can try to stop a kill here to buy us more time. In part, I suppose, because neither of them wanted to concentrate the kill on me. In part because, as I see it, if you think there's a deliberate reason I'm kept alive, this likely rules out TKN and to a weaker extent, Illwei.

Given my E!Illwei credences, and my history of strong clashes with Illwei, it is extremely unlikely E!Illwei chooses to keep me alive here. She isn't that delusional. (Okay, screwy options, but if E!Illwei, then V!me and V!you go against her. Is she expecting to persuade V!TKN here? TKN isn't that kinda guy.) Agreed, this is perhaps diluted by the fact the plan is for me to self-protect, but if we bracket that as you ask, then that's the strong conclusion.

Then we can even go for the NKA option.

We have two deaths: Aeo and Araris. I feel that Araris is more likely the Elim kill here - Aeo is likely Coffee's kill. Probably because Aeo is least in the suspect pool, and Coffee is helping the last Elim out (or a classic mercyshot.)

The thing is, I feel like in most worlds, I'm TKN's shot of choice here, if not a little earlier. I'm the player he always wants to take down for whatever reason, and TKN is into aggressive control/noise kills. TKN suggesting I self-protect is kind of whack because he didn't need to do that. I also lean a bit towards Araris's views on TKN, but would need to re-read the cycles first to confirm my views on TKN. Aeo and Araris aren't really TKN shots. Maybe Aeo, but not necessarily Araris. You could argue given TKN was locked onto Araris and never bothered to revise his theory, Araris is a decent shot for him since he wasn't likely to get that ML off. But not sure.

Araris feels like a tougher shot for Illwei but I think Araris's last post makes him appear Village, and Araris was sussing Illwei before he died and before the Coffee v. me clash derailed the previous trains. It's clear E!Illwei never shoots you, and with TKN's theoretical low activity bracket status, maybe.

I think you shooting Araris is an eh choice. You had accepted V!TKN, meaning a TKN shot was probably better. I don't think you said much about Araris but still had him in PoE. Maybe you expected credence revision off his last post, IDK.

tldr; there's no way in hell anyone shot anyone in the <you, Illwei> pool today. Aeo was probably dead, and one in <me, TKN, Araris.> Araris over TKN is a bit of a Choice that makes me squint at TKN, but there's a bit more of a negative connection to Illwei there than you.

The most Illwei has going for her are all negative arguments, and I'm not a fan of negative arguments in lylo.

Your thread presence diminished after C1-C2, which makes it much harder to solidify a non-provisional read at lylo.

yeah but if TKN is the mafia i wouldnt feel as bad about it. if illwei was mafia that meant the team was a whole bunch of potatoes in an active threadstate that had to scramble for any control, and while that happens its certainly not something to feel good about.

mylo is the brain killer. ive seen more mishangs at mylo than id like to admit (though idt ive ever been at mylo with a prot alive like this acc). suspect me all youd like for it but i dont trust mylo hangs, and see them as a mafia favoured environment. but uhm. if we get it wrong then good luck...? ugh

well i mean my own answer to that question seems pretty set forward to me. x3

the comment on coffee is actually reminded me of smth but id have to think about it for a bit in terms of an SK's wincon there so it might be stupid

wdym by negative arguements? and non provisional? ;_;

1 hour ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Ah yes, just like a villager would- dropping in activity after two elims die. (this is sarcasm (because that's a >rand!E move)

Also Kas whatever time you would use to play this game please go have some tea or go take a nap because you're obviously tilted from last cycle still
--

And I forgot about it but my other reason I suspect Neil is because of EoD C3 and how it played out. it's a small point because he didn't try to go anywhere else, but there wasn't really anyone on with anywhere else to go.

I commented on how i thought JNV was going to flip villa close to EoD but not one person interacted with it or tried to push on it, Kinda wish i didn't say i was leaving thread again and hopefully seen more people interact with that.
--

There is potentially a thought with JNV's one (real) post, and who they decided to push, which was TKN and Ash. The fact that they voted ash instead of off wagon probably isn't important because there wasn't really anywhere else to go, unless they wanted to vote neil or me (though Neil took his vote off me, TKN I thought still had a vote on neil even though it's not shown in the votecount? Though I don't see where it dissappeared.) But when he voted ash he put it up to three, tying the vote at the time I believe, and voting Neil or me woulda put it at two. woulda probably set up good for Ash had only one of them died.
Still find that strange because supposing Ash did get on and vote, then there was a potential chance for a counterwagon to both of them. It would however require all of the Elims voting together and then not getting killed by the SK that night to have a shot though.

Ending question is really just if it's something JNV would do- to just sus both his teammates right before he potentially dies, or he kills one of them.

Rambling thoughts not feeling great this morning but there's more I'm trying to look at but I know that the moment I hit send on this I'll feel less motivated to but I'm disorganized right now and don't want to put out a post bigger than this with minimal formatting because it'll be hard to read through

ah yes after cycles 1 and two where we voted an elimnator

eh i mean seeing as ash and jnv got kinda cooked there , and tkn was at least somewhat floating above that poe itd be kind of hard to push for a tkn elim anyways at that point. i think i saw a whale. like, theres no hope for jnv to survive that and the best thing you can do there is to force the less efficient vote through that actually... has some traction? mmm

if w!jnv was pushing at w!tkn itd probably be in antispew regardless. in that moment its better to push the more potato of the teamates and thus secure the last one for success. however in a t!tkn world whats the play there? what was the threadstate at the time? was a tkn miselim viable? probably not? but any miselim is a miselim if you can crawl accross the finish line, and there wasnt an effort for that. i think ironically isnt tkn the best person to answer this question? how does w!jnv normally handle their teamates, and would w!jnv be able to change thta for a game

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I'm commenting about Neil, not you. I've just come off from reading C3 and think Neil looks a bit worse than you from it but both of you just look pretty negative from it.

I'd note here that being condescending after asserting you are so Village no one should question it in a classical case of circular reasoning is certainly how you convince people to decide it's worth keeping their vote on you

I'm certainly happy to just leave it on you and take the rest of the cycle off.

Actually you know what? Thank you for the advice - I'll do just that. See all of you after rollover, or after the Aftermath. Goodnight everyone

eh how do i look bad from c3? uhm. also i dont think its very fair to just... leave like that for illwei's sake. like regardless of align,ent its bm to just leave someone off as a chop and not give them a chance to convince you otherwise

The Unknown Medallion · December 20, 2023

Sorry for my relative inactivity this cycle, I've had a very, very busy day today.

4 hours ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

TKN

And that makes me far more inclined to vote Illwei. Feels like she saw Kas doubting on me and decided to go for something easier to convince Kas of.

I'll humor you for a bit though. What's your reasoning?

Illwei · December 21, 2023

Ur so right tkn I'm trying so hard to convince Kas of something rn that's what you see me doing

neil the beguiled · December 21, 2023

maybe kas is the elim :9

Illwei · December 21, 2023

Ur so right tkn I'm trying so hard to convince Kas of something rn that's what you see me doing

The Unknown Medallion · December 21, 2023

50 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Ur so right tkn I'm trying so hard to convince Kas of something rn that's what you see me doing

25 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Ur so right tkn I'm trying so hard to convince Kas of something rn that's what you see me doing

Curious how you didn't answer the question.

@Kasimir, if you don't want to engage, that's fine, but I recall you asking about how I felt about the votes on me in a previous round with regards to my rule. Didn't feel they were problematic then, but this one is ringing all the alarm bells.

Illwei (Neil)

Kasimir · December 21, 2023

5 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

yeah but if TKN is the mafia i wouldnt feel as bad about it. if illwei was mafia that meant the team was a whole bunch of potatoes in an active threadstate that had to scramble for any control, and while that happens its certainly not something to feel good about.

But I don't see what the actual gamestate has to do with feeling good or feeling bad. Concrete states of affairs in the world don't care about how I feel about them. It'd be convenient with my annoyance with Illwei if she were Elim but it doesn't make that true. I'm concerned/not sure why you are using that proxy as your indicator for truthlikeness at lylo. I'm concerned with getting that Elim here, not getting someone I feel good about getting.

5 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

mylo is the brain killer. ive seen more mishangs at mylo than id like to admit (though idt ive ever been at mylo with a prot alive like this acc). suspect me all youd like for it but i dont trust mylo hangs, and see them as a mafia favoured environment. but uhm. if we get it wrong then good luck...? ugh

I've seen as many MLs at lylo which happened because Village kneejerk voted the main suspect and didn't take time to rethink. Case in point, Archer MLing Az with everyone else, Drake and I MLing xino over Archer, and Archer MLing Maili over me.

Ultimately, at the end of the day, all we can do is our best, and despite many Villages making mistakes at lylo, I'd like to think the dead will condemn us more for not trying than for trying our best and getting it wrong.

5 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

well i mean my own answer to that question seems pretty set forward to me. x3

Which is?

5 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

wdym by negative arguements? and non provisional? ;_;

1. I don't buy TKN's arguments about Illwei's entry speed. TKN was fifth voter on JNV and it's easily possible the Village would've had cold feet as it was a stable 5 train. Not this wasn't a wrong assessment as Aman and I did hop off. Could Illwei have swung it? Maybe, maybe not. Thread consensus felt very locked - people were tired of rethinking and it's hard to see even an aggressive entrance do more than tie her very tightly to JNV with potentially little reward.

I'd also point out that there's a fundamental problem here: Coffee flipped SK, Araris and Aeo flipped Village. The last two I expected, but this means that when you relook at the C3 trains, you're forced to accept one of three pretty uncomfortable conclusions:

A. Illwei simply showed up, made some half-hearted posts, and dropped a post saying she felt JNV was Village without deflecting the trains to mimic her V!meta.
B. You parked a vote on AlphaWei, never tried to find another train, and then had a sus vibes late post telling everyone AlphaWei was probably red but also unvoting AlphaWei even as you tried to redirect traffic to a dead train.
C. TKN bussed JNV somewhat after Rollovet (the halfway mark) and never looked back.

I feel they're all uncomfortable because they offer some level of absurdity:

A. Illwei is generally anti-bussing. Or rather, it takes more to make her reach bus point than most.
B. This is probably the most half-hearted way of saving a player possible. That being said, Drake just scammed me by doing a half-hearted tercer save so what do I know.
C. It's difficult to see this make sense with TKN's play but you can argue parsimony here.

2. Negative arguments because 90% of the pro-Illwei arguments are "E!Illwei would do X instead of Y," e.g. "E!Illwei wouldn't just casually leave JNV to hang like that" and "E!Illwei would've been more proactive C4." At lylo, I simply don't trust negative arguments any longer (hence my current lack of willingness to continue that provisional V!read of Illwei) because of the indicators that the fact we haven't found the last Elim suggest (wrt the absurdities) that something somewhere, some assumption has gone wrong - which also suggests the behavioural models are wrong and calls into question the negative arguments.

3. Non-provisional, because - and this applies to Illwei too - I'm willing to file active good vibes posters away and V!lean them in early game. It is no longer possible to do so at lylo without a stronger reason to, hence my talking about provisional and non-provisional reasons. The issue and the reason why I don't feel provisional arguments work anymore at this stage is pretty much why despite Illwei's assertion she's so Village she should be cased, I don't buy it - I feel it's the opposite problem right here. Yes, TKN could be bussing, but that vote on JNV is at least One Villagery thing he's done, and despite re-reading, I don't have as much to go on as both of you without again, negative arguments.

5 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

if w!jnv was pushing at w!tkn itd probably be in antispew regardless. in that moment its better to push the more potato of the teamates and thus secure the last one for success. however in a t!tkn world whats the play there? what was the threadstate at the time? was a tkn miselim viable? probably not? but any miselim is a miselim if you can crawl accross the finish line, and there wasnt an effort for that. i think ironically isnt tkn the best person to answer this question? how does w!jnv normally handle their teamates, and would w!jnv be able to change thta for a game

I don't think there was that much appetite. I've come off relooking the votes last night and Ash was the main competitor. Maybe Araris at some point and TKN did in fact say he'd want either JNV or Araris dead, but keep in mind the main votes were: you on Alphawei, and Coffee on Araris, who retracted after challenge.

Formally, this is the votecount when TKN goes on:

Quote

Araris (1): Coffee
Illwei (1): Neil
Aeo (1): JNV
JNV (5): Araris, Kas, Aeo, Aman, TKN

He shifted from saying he'd support an Aeo train to either Araris or JNV, but voted JNV as Araris was unlikely to be exed, which I think is reasonable. He earlier commented that he felt an Aeo exe was also unlikely given demonstrated unwillingness to actually commit to exeing her. Possible his view might've been different if Aman had stayed on Aeo.

5 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

eh how do i look bad from c3? uhm. also i dont think its very fair to just... leave like that for illwei's sake. like regardless of align,ent its bm to just leave someone off as a chop and not give them a chance to convince you otherwise

Is it? I'm sorry Neil, but I kind of think it's BM to respond to suspicion on you with "I am so obviously Village that this should not be questioned and you're tilted if you sus me, go sleep because you're delusional." You can argue it's a legit Elim tactic, sure, but even so. If you're not interested in convincing me otherwise, or even assuming a basic good faith approach to this game, I don't think I should be expected to be begging you to convince me otherwise, or to also commit to a good faith approach on you. Respect goes both ways. [Edited to add: I'm aware aggressive approaches like this are more common at MU, and it's yet another reason MU and I don't get along. I'll candidly say a decent slice of MU players are actively BM to me.]

Edited to add 2: I'd add there's another layer here, which is the whole 'ah but you can't sus me without a Correct Case!' Yeah sorry, I find preoccupation with that more Elim than anything - see Biplet in LG83, or Mat in a bunch of games.

Also, on you - other stuff, e.g. I felt the AlphaWei vote was so parked it's questionable what you got out of it, TKN has a weird post where he susses you because he says he tried the same thing and got more out of it than you (weird because if you ever flipped Village then yeah it feels like TKN being self-congratulatory which feels off) but given he's also sussing you, feels like a wash. In general, things like - as Aman caught - you floating an under-the-radar team but then calling for attention on TKN and Wiz rather than Ash and JNV, suggesting you'd look at Ash but not doing so, asking Aeo about JNV (but yourself never mentioning them since or committing to a view on them.)

If you want me to take your C1 at face value btw, it reads like you were trying to splinter-train off in case Ash got voted, and appealing to Raven and Aman does mean you called an Ash voter off Ash.

34 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

@Kasimir, if you don't want to engage, that's fine, but I recall you asking about how I felt about the votes on me in a previous round with regards to my rule. Didn't feel they were problematic then, but this one is ringing all the alarm bells.

Why so?

Edited December 21, 2023 by Kasimir

Illwei · December 21, 2023

19 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

He shifted from saying he'd support an Aeo train to either Araris or JNV, but voted JNV as Araris was unlikely to be exed, which I think is reasonable. He earlier commented that he felt an Aeo exe was also unlikely given demonstrated unwillingness to actually commit to exeing her. Possible his view might've been different if Aman had stayed on Aeo.

I like this point for tkn being village (at least what I see It as hinestly im not sure what youre saying it is) I also liked that he didn't vote me at sod as well since I'm the consensus vote right now or at least it seems, though I was hoping for him to try and engage more about it with you or Neil instead of just his interactions with me

19 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

"I am so obviously Village that this should not be questioned and you're tilted if you sus me, go sleep because you're delusional."

Again we have a miscommunication, like usual. That was not my statement, as I said it's normal for you to elim read me.

Your tone has completely changed in between the beginning of last cycle to now and if I were you I'd be drinking some tea and taking a nap, because how you still appear tilted off of last cycle and were funneling that energy at me and I was starting to get tilted. And it still remains in this current post, you can tell because of how you "paraphrased" my posts to you.

And if you still don't understand me here /shrug wtv

EDIT:
I find it ironic that you see me as the aggressive one here

Quote

Edited to add 2: I'd add there's another layer here, which is the whole 'ah but you can't sus me without a Correct Case!' Yeah sorry, I find preoccupation with that more Elim than anything - see Biplet in LG83, or Mat in a bunch of games.

Yeah, so. It's lylo. Don't know if you've noticed. So if you need more to townread someone I'm sorry that the player before me posted nothing. I can't help that. Sorry that I had work during the first cycle I repped in on. Sorry that you see even my posts with thoughts in them after I read through the thread as half-arsed. Sorry that you expect more from me than calling out an Elim on my first read through. Sorry that you don't like that I called out Aeo as town when she was suspected. Sorry that I commented on the JNV/Ash EoD being weird in a way you didn't like. Sorry for not being a player you want to play with regardless of how much I try.

I'd post more real thoughts but the reason I'm not is because how you've interacted with me so far- I'm not going to put effort into a game just for the conftown to push me more because he sees everything as me grasping at straws to sway him to someone else.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Ooklil the Wei

Elandera · December 21, 2023

Popping in for another reminder regarding the rules:

Be Polite.

Don't take arguments personally.

Take a minute to reread, both before you post and before you respond to someone else's post. Text is not a great way to convey tone, so please be careful with your words.

If an argument is straying away from game-related content, it is best to disengage and focus on the game.

Illwei · December 21, 2023

And I acknoledge that that post will probably cement Kas' vote on me but I simply do not care right now.

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'm commenting about Neil, not you. I've just come off from reading C3 and think Neil looks a bit worse than you from it but both of you just look pretty negative from it.

Noticed that this was a misunderstanding as well, I was also talking about neil, and was commenting on how his drop in activity is >rand!E because the vote being between two teammates in one day and then losing them both the next is hard and demotivating

Kasimir · December 21, 2023

25 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

And I acknoledge that that post will probably cement Kas' vote on me but I simply do not care right now.

Noticed that this was a misunderstanding as well, I was also talking about neil, and was commenting on how his drop in activity is >rand!E because the vote being between two teammates in one day and then losing them both the next is hard and demotivating

So are you selecting B. Because I actually think the simplest answer is C.

Edited to add:

Like again—either A. you came in with a half-hearted (you diluted your JNV statements) post on JNV meant to distance and passively bussed them, B. Despite deepwolfing, Neil made a half-hearted CW trying to drag people to you despite also unvoting and no one taking the train earlier, or C. TKN bussed.

I geddit if there are other reasons to V!read TKN (and that's my point of asking this) but just in isolation, postulating a bus here seems to involve the least absurdities.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Kasimir

Illwei · December 21, 2023

42 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

So are you selecting B. Because I actually think the simplest answer is C.

You think TKN is more likely to be evil than neil?

I can see it it's just this cycle i find incredibly hard.

TKN has focused on the SK a lot (it does seem like he thought you asked about the SK when you asked him about the NK though, unsure)

Spoiler

Quote

I think Raven (new Raven that's been nked a lot) is pretty likely to be the SK kill. As for SK identity due to that kill choice, prob Wiz, Aeo, CC/Silber, Neil, and Cash. Putting Wiz and Cash lesser options because I have the least credences, Aeo as being slightly less credible cause I feel like it, Silber is protected. Remind me, Cash is newish or returning, right? A couple games in?

It is seeming more likely that at least one of the trusted few is unworthy of trust. Neil also fits my model for an SK, so I think this a case where interests kind of overlap.

Spoiler

Quote

I'd also be happy with Aeoryi, but I think she's slightly less likely to be SK, and either the same or less likely to be elim. Plus she's got a good number of votes already from what I've seen.

Also the consistent push on Neil while calling him the SK, not an Elim.

- Inability to find Elims so he turns to something he can find

His JNV post i will say was kinda out of the blue while he was already a wagon and his vote meant almost nothing, and no one was biting neil.
He also didn't really acknoledge any posts
I also do find it strange that Ash was in his teams for JNV and that (almost unrelated but still disconcerting) almost no one (besides I think Aman did) commented on how the wagons weren't really ever competing at any point and were just sitting there almost the whole time.

He's also hidden behind the exact same push this entire time, and doesn't really show why he thinks araris would be an elim besides trying to find someone besides neil to push because neil is...theoretically the SK to him? idk

This was a lot of nothing brb another post or edit coming depending on others posts

EDIT:

this isn't the edit i was talking about, but

@Kasimir are you saying that your comment earlier about TKN wasn't a point for why he's a villager? that's what I interpreted it as.
If that was the point that he joined the JNV train then it could though be a point for why he's an Elim- Not wanting to pile on Aeo with a teammate even though if anyone did switch I feel like it would be aman, and then he woulda tied it with a villager. Not wanting to be the second vote because if he does and no one switches he'll look worse off of JNV's flip.
I didn't really see him saying much about Aeo but I might have missed it.

EDIT 2:

ok wait did i misinterpret the ABC because I'm confused with your edit

also can't believe it took me like 30 minutes to iso Ash and TKN

EDIT 3:

this is too many edits just i read it more and i see it now i was looking at the right ABC i just didn't read that most recent edit enough times to read it

Edited December 21, 2023 by Ooklil the Wei

Kasimir · December 21, 2023

1 minute ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

You think TKN is more likely to be evil than neil?

I think based strictly on Options A, B, C, my personal ranking rn is: C > B > A.

Like look you know Neil better than I do. My problem here is always: isn't that like the world's worst CW. No one has voted you from the start of the cycle, and it came so late. If he himself has unvoted you, even while trying to FUD V!reads on you, does any reasonable Elim here imagine there's enough take-up? It's almost like if E!Neil, it's him being performative...but in a nonsensical way?

I am fully willing to accept your bus threshold is so high and you think busses are much worse than players often believe that I am not willing to rank a passive bus from you as the most likely option of all three.

And I was relooking LG97 last night as a comparison as your point about the JNV post made me want to recheck it:

I kind of think it's also worth running a direct LG97 to MR67 comparison here:

LG97 #1

Quote

[...] Archers immediate trusting of the GM is like maybe a tad bit hm cause like I dont know whe nI was ffirst reading it the emoticons made me hestitate a bit but eh I feel fine abotu them otherwise good PM vibes sorta thing might be hindsight bias

Aeoryis proccupation with dying is like a little weird like not necessarily evil weird just weird like I coudl give a whole spiel about how the goal of a villager isnt to live necessarily

Archer - Aeo focus again. I s2g if JNV ever just voluntarily reads both of them out of the blue, they're Evil. Zero TKN mention and TKN is their teammate.

LG97 #2

Quote

Like if it was cycle closes in two minutes vote a player or die probably Aeoryi just by virtue of like have you seen their posts and like I PMed them earlier and they were just like oh its anew playstyle and I dont know feels iffy but if I thought about it for more than two minutes like definitely not the sort of play Id expect of like second game evil even if theyre apparently pretty well read I guess part of the problem is no ones really made an impression on me beyond ooh nice PM partner so like I do kinda trust the people whove been upfront with me and well I kinda suspect Novel but I always suspect Novel and at this point I think itd be weirder if I didnt but I dont relaly know suspicion is hard

When asked who they'd vote out, picks Aeo, and then sort of mentions TKN sus but waves it off.

LG97 #3

Quote

Ok theres 8 of us left 7 not me Im writing off Aeoryi as village out of sheer no evil would do this Ive got good vibes about Matrim and Mark but this might just be cause like meaningful talk you know Stink and I have a chill PM so like hm of the randoms wouldnt hit them first if you know what I mean anyway Frustrations got complaints already so we could try to get them out there and Novel well Novels always weird to me but Im not writing them off but I think hm I think Im voting Araris anyway I kinda cant get on rest of day so see you after the cycle ends

Context here is different, but I just wanted to highlight I think you're right that E!JNV isn't gunshy of mentioning E!TKN, but keeping him in a weird null semi-sus place but never voting on him.

MR67 #1

Quote

Im trying not to write Aeoryi off as village for making me automatically suspect them cause thats going to be a really bad habit if I just start doing that but thats honestly the state of things um Im also trying not to write off Archer for being gambity cause that bad habit already bit me listen its finals week for like two more days and then Im scot free so my brain is not working right now though like when is it ever you know what I mean

Early mention of Aeo and Archer when asked for reads. Absolutely nothing on TKN.

MR67 #2

Quote

Hi I had a post half written last night and I fell asleep in the middle of writing it and when I clicked the see new repliees thing this morning it got eaten by the Shard demons so sadness I guess so Ill just summarie anyway when lookin gback over things I kinda noticed Im not getting bad vibes on Novel which is weird in hindsight even if I kinda didnt notice earlier I blame finals brain causel ike every time I play with Novel I get bad vibes even when we were evil together that one time so like who knows but everythings kinda a ball of mush in my brain I trust Kas I trust Aman Im letting Aeoryi off the hook like I wouldnt be surprised if they turn out to be SK but Im closing the book on them sorta thing honestly the state of my brain is I want everyone dead except me which isnt a great state to be in so like if I look at everyone left who isnt being let go its Novel Araris Labyrillwei Coffee Neil Ash if I buy Kass Araris analysis then either world points to a certain pool and theres Ash Dingo meta arguments and my brains fried so Ill just park there and try another reread round Ash Aeoryi but I dont know Im half tempted to just vote Novel but thats not serious and Labyrillweis shown up now and can probably be read

I'm struggling how to assess this with regard to JNV now - their mention of bad vibes everytime they play with TKN is untrue. LG97 demonstrates this was not only the case, but they smuggled TKN into a null- type position and while mentioning they'd vote TKN, never did.

@Ooklil the Wei Just to be clear, I'm bringing this up as a follow-up to your point, especially because I think you're stronger on post analysis than I am. But I think this should re-open E!TKN possibilities in a relevant way.

13 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

- Inability to find Elims so he turns to something he can find

I don't disagree that both of you pointed out there's value in taking the SK out anyway, but the problem here is that one way or another, we're sort of stuck in a position where

While I went with the TKN plan because Araris backed it up and I respect his E!instincts, I'll point out asking me to self-protect is actually kind of pointless - if I really did follow the plan, which I am not going to officially confirm nor deny - there is no way in hell it resolves the flip issue. It tells the Elims that killing anyone not me is going to be successful, meaning two green flips either way. Even worse, this cycle, it guarantees that I'm the one NK target that will definitely go through because I can't be protected any longer, so what point is there in 'keeping me alive so I can make another save'?

(I'll note of course this requires me to have followed the plan, which the Elims won't know if I did.)

And while TKN could be busy, I also just distrust the lack of solving energy at lylo or the sudden bad vibes deal. I don't feel you voting him is itself an Elim thing, here and now. The whole pushing TKN has always been the LHF problem at an lylo, he's emphatically not LHF.

19 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

He's also hidden behind the exact same push this entire time, and doesn't really show why he thinks araris would be an elim besides trying to find someone besides neil to push because neil is...theoretically the SK to him? idk

I'll add the Araris tunnel didn't feel right to me into C4 - like hello, you've have vote analysis, why are you pushing Araris yet again? Is there nothing that changes your mind here?

19 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

I also do find it strange that Ash was in his teams for JNV and that (almost unrelated but still disconcerting) almost no one (besides I think Aman did) commented on how the wagons weren't really ever competing at any point and were just sitting there almost the whole time.

In what sense?

20 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

I can see it it's just this cycle i find incredibly hard.

How so?

20 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

I can see it it's just this cycle i find incredibly hard.

Yeah it looks like it. Look, at endgame, I don't know if you can do TWTBAW with regard to SK focus anymore - it just feels like you gotta call a spade a spade at this point. Am willing to vote Neil if there's some way to re-assess on TKN but he kind of feels like the best shot to me at this point.

Kasimir · December 21, 2023

Edited to add:

29 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

@Kasimir are you saying that your comment earlier about TKN wasn't a point for why he's a villager? that's what I interpreted it as.
If that was the point that he joined the JNV train then it could though be a point for why he's an Elim- Not wanting to pile on Aeo with a teammate even though if anyone did switch I feel like it would be aman, and then he woulda tied it with a villager. Not wanting to be the second vote because if he does and no one switches he'll look worse off of JNV's flip.
I didn't really see him saying much about Aeo but I might have missed it.

Sorry the notif didn't come - I think the Shard doesn't reping you if you've already been pinged.

It wasn't a point for why he's a Villager, or at least I'm really not sure. It was me telling Neil that I felt that there was no alternate viable CW at the point TKN joined, since Neil was arguing that it depends, e.g. could JNV and TKN just thunderdome. I was pointing to the votestate and telling him that yeah, but look at the trains - you, with zero take-up, JNV on Aeo, and Coffee on Araris.

Does E!TKN really have options here? I feel like he could plausibly either drop a bussing vote or just hope to scare people off the JNV train in virtue of train size.

Quote

Araris (1): Coffee
Illwei (1): Neil
Aeo (1): JNV
JNV (5): Araris, Kas, Aeo, Aman, TKN

The Aeo comment is earlier in the cycle:

Quote

I realize it's mostly irrelevant now, but I don't care if you exe me before c3. If you gotta you gotta, but I do kick into gear right about now.

So, I very much do not disagree with the Aeoryi exe, but for the sake of diversity, I'd like to float the idea of a potential Neil train.

It is seeming more likely that at least one of the trusted few is unworthy of trust. Neil also fits my model for an SK, so I think this a case where interests kind of overlap.

I'd also be happy with Aeoryi, but I think she's slightly less likely to be SK, and either the same or less likely to be elim. Plus she's got a good number of votes already from what I've seen.

I'll try to be around to discuss some more today, but it might be awhile. I should be around a ton tomorrow though.

Later on, as he votes JNV:

Quote

In conclusion, my elim team guesses are e!JNV=JNV, Araris, Ash, v!JNV=Neil, Ash, Coffee/Araris, Ash, Illwei. I think we should go one of Araris or JNV today, and as there is already a train on JNV, (Neil) I will join it. I would like to do the same thing going through with v/e!Araris, but I wouldn’t get any significant insight from this cycle, and I don't want to nor do I have the time to go through previous ones.

You're right he has Ash on both teams - most of us were expecting one in <Ash/JNV> at best.

Illwei · December 21, 2023

Just now, Kasimir said:

Like look you know Neil better than I do. My problem here is always: isn't that like the world's worst CW. No one has voted you from the start of the cycle, and it came so late. If he himself has unvoted you, even while trying to FUD V!reads on you, does any reasonable Elim here imagine there's enough take-up? It's almost like if E!Neil, it's him being performative...but in a nonsensical way?

I want to clarify that I really don't, I thought I said it before but you might have missed it- Neil has hosted and spec'd a few turbos I've played but I can't recall anything from the like, one turbo i've played with him. So I really don't know better on Neil than anyone else here.

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

How so?

Joining a game at the end of a cycle, The next cycle it's a cc battle and it's inside that, and then it's lylo gives me very little interactions to work off of and all i can do is reread old cycles over and over again where the Elims were near inactive.

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

In what sense?

Without TKN's thought process and only his conclusions posted, his reasoning for why Ash is an Elim with JNV is like, not there. and while I don't know why TKN would choose to double bus there, Ash seems to have come from nowhere in terms of fitting on a team with JNV. Meanwhile, he was being floated around as another option for the day (though i suppose not being voted yet?) I may have my timeline wrong.

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Yeah it looks like it. Look, at endgame, I don't know if you can do TWTBAW with regard to SK focus anymore

I don't really understand what you mean here, but personally I was saying his fixation on killing Neil while calling neil the SK was most likely an Elim trying to find something to push without pushing his teammates.

I really would like TKN to weigh in here eventually

@Ookla the Bald I would also like to know why you came in voting (not gonna say pushing) Neil when previously you had thought he was the SK candidate? How do you see him fitting in to the team? (fyi "i don't anymore" isn't really a valid answer to this since you obviously did at some time, even though your initial comment with the vote was about how you think I don't enter like I do as an Elim)

Kasimir · December 21, 2023

10 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

I don't really understand what you mean here, but personally I was saying his fixation on killing Neil while calling neil the SK was most likely an Elim trying to find something to push without pushing his teammates.

More my own thoughts - that earlier in maybe C2 or C3, had considered giving him credit for focusing on SK hunting because that seemed too Evil for an Elim to willingly broach. I feel that goes a bit TWTBAW and is not viable at lylo anymore. So yeah I'm agreeing.

10 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

I really would like TKN to weigh in here eventually

Yep, basically.

10 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Without TKN's thought process and only his conclusions posted, his reasoning for why Ash is an Elim with JNV is like, not there. and while I don't know why TKN would choose to double bus there, Ash seems to have come from nowhere in terms of fitting on a team with JNV. Meanwhile, he was being floated around as another option for the day (though i suppose not being voted yet?) I may have my timeline wrong.

Yeah - he mentions Ash as a potential teammate but that being said, Ash was voted on a bit earlier prior to TKN's JNV vote, if the context helps.

Quote

Araris (1): Coffee
Illwei (1): Neil
Aeo (1): JNV
JNV (2): Araris, Kas
Neil (1): TKN
Ash (2): Aman, Aeo

JNV and Ash tie. Shortly after, Aeo and Aman swap to JNV and the Ash train dissolves, which is the point at which TKN enters with the post on JNV partners and votes JNV.

Edited to add:

Before I forget - TKN for now.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Kasimir

Illwei · December 21, 2023

33 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Does E!TKN really have options here? I feel like he could plausibly either drop a bussing vote or just hope to scare people off the JNV train in virtue of train size.

E!TKN seems to just completely drop all suspicion on Aeyori with his teams post. Is it....silly idea, is it possible he mixed up Aeoryi and Araris somehow?? lol, anyways.
Idk if I was him there i would float the Aeoryi suspicion again and hope to get someone like Aman to hop on to that and then be the third vote. but this is all irrelevant really anyways, because he didn't.

With JNV at three though, I don't see why someone wouldn't hop to Araris at that point, bringing it to 2. Ash wasn't a wagon at the time in your VC, but getting araris exed seems silly.

Really anyways my points on TKN really boil down to

- that random teams list that seemingly came out of nowhere with no previous suspicion on JNV until he was asked- at which point he said that JNV is NOT in his E!meta and then proceeded to vote JNV
- his fixation on the SK and voting neil without any real evidence of thoughts or re-eval around that.

Points for TKN are

- Voting Neil here (tunneled villager, not coming out voting me despite me being the easy exe of the cycle)
- Probably something earlier because in one of my first posts I said he was more villagery out of coffee/him but I didn't really see those interactions when i did my iso so I guess i saw something but i didn't see it on a second read through. Granted i was looking for mentions of JNV and Ash, and votes mostly.

27 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

JNV and Ash tie. Shortly after, Aeo and Aman swap to JNV and the Ash train dissolves, which is the point at which TKN enters with the post on JNV partners and votes JNV.

Yeah generally I just find it a super strange assumption to make there that Ash and JNV are both evil and teamed when there's not a lot between them in terms of voting and there's nothing in terms of posts.

The only thing potentially teaming them is assuming that the Elims are not voting most cycles because they are not in danger. fmpov this points to TKN, especially if he's making this assumption himself and still not pointing a finger at me when I'm the other non-voter. The other assumption is that at least /one/ teammate is voting, which would point to neil as the last elim and /not/ as the SK, which he pushes neil as.

Bro voting TKN was just a rando whats gonna happen vote why am i convincing myself to stick with it i haven't even finished looking through neil's posts yet

EDIT:

hi aman

Actual Edit:

I think the fixation on SK becomes a moot point when you look at neil and see his though, potentially.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Ooklil the Wei

Kasimir · December 21, 2023

44 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

E!TKN seems to just completely drop all suspicion on Aeyori with his teams post. Is it....silly idea, is it possible he mixed up Aeoryi and Araris somehow?? lol, anyways.

Unlikely.

44 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Idk if I was him there i would float the Aeoryi suspicion again and hope to get someone like Aman to hop on to that and then be the third vote. but this is all irrelevant really anyways, because he didn't.

Possibly, but somewhere in the thread he makes a comment about NKing Aeo because we've shown we have no appetite for exeing her. IDK which cycle, they blurred together a bit when re-reading. I can go check. But yeah fair.

44 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

With JNV at three though, I don't see why someone wouldn't hop to Araris at that point, bringing it to 2. Ash wasn't a wagon at the time in your VC, but getting araris exed seems silly.

In what sense?

44 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

- that random teams list that seemingly came out of nowhere with no previous suspicion on JNV until he was asked- at which point he said that JNV is NOT in his E!meta and then proceeded to vote JNV

Do you have a reference for the JNV not in E!meta bit? Because I really recall just you saying JNV is off from E!JNV but also that you believe they tick classic Elim boxes.

44 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Yeah generally I just find it a super strange assumption to make there that Ash and JNV are both evil and teamed when there's not a lot between them in terms of voting and there's nothing in terms of posts.

Fair yeah - I was relooking the whole thing so I definitely remember Aman et al arguing that two inactives wasn't the natural assumption.

44 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

The only thing potentially teaming them is assuming that the Elims are not voting most cycles because they are not in danger. fmpov this points to TKN, especially if he's making this assumption himself and still not pointing a finger at me when I'm the other non-voter. The other assumption is that at least /one/ teammate is voting, which would point to neil as the last elim and /not/ as the SK, which he pushes neil as.

Yeah, that makes sense to me.

44 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Bro voting TKN was just a rando whats gonna happen vote why am i convincing myself to stick with it i haven't even finished looking through neil's posts yet

If TKN's a hit, you claim god status? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ To be clear, not advocating locking on TKN now. Would like to hear from TKN and Neil, and rereading Neil if you have the time is worth it. My thoughts largely as follows:

-Probably overly influenced by the offsite game I just played with Drake where all my scans kept coming up Village and I was getting increasingly lost/confused where the Elims were, only to realise E!Drake was the most elegant solution and yep there it was. Renewed my faith in Occam's Razor.

-Re-read QF66 as well to compare a V!TKN / E!JNV game. Worth noting JNV never once mentions TKN at all in that game (granted, Archer C2s them) and also that TKN is more active in a helpful way earlier than just mech/SK discussion. I feel there's a clear discrepancy with how TKN is playing this game, and it's making me reconsider.

-I...agree E!Neil is a possibility, but even then, two things in Neil's favour IMO - first, his behaviour this cycle. IMO when there's a rift between two possible Villagers, you always have two options - you can make it worse, or you can try to stop them and keep Village rolling forward. I agree Neil theoretically E!leans you but the fact he was trying to de-escalate is worth something in my view. Village-on-Village conflict is always a gift to the Elims. In contrast, TKN doubles down by joining my vote on you. I'd argue that given there was always an open possibility of V!Illwei, Neil's behaviour is more pro-Village here.

-Second, while I'm...eh about Neil on re-reading, I also feel that one positive is the fact he was pushing an under-the-radar Elim team from the beginning. I think Araris sussed him for it a bit given that Neil then focused on TKN and Wiz, but...is that really a bad thing? In retrospect, Aeo, Aman, and I are all Village. Neil pointing us to low profile Elims is kind of loltastic as deepwolfing if he's setting us on two of our teammates and discouraging Village-on-Village violence given the Aeo, Aman, and I set. If a deepwolf has to bite at some point, where's Neil's bite? He couldn't save his teammates. Isn't that ultimate deepwolf failure? In that world, don't you just go for Village cred since you have to sit there for the long run? (Are we suggesting that EoD was meant to look a bit sus so the SK wouldn't hit him? He was already sus to several...)

-Take this or disregard this as you will: I can't say more about it but I'm aware of an alternative explanation for Neil's activity drop.

-I'd add I felt Neil had some fairly natural C1-C2 posts that made me think he wasn't in a doc.

-Genuinely more uncomfortable with TKN's C4 complacency compared to you or Neil.

- @neil the beguiled Honestly, could you link me to one town game and one maf game for you? I just need a better idea of your baseline.

-Unsure what Coffee's read is worth but if Coffee was pushing Neil last cycle, she clearly didn't believe E!Neil.

Edited to add:

Quote

Neil pointing us to low profile Elims is kind of loltastic as deepwolfing if he's setting us on two of our teammates

In any world I wasn't Brandon Sanderson (wow does this sound like such a weird statement), this is where the Village probably flashwagons me for what's supposed to be an E!slip RIP.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Kasimir

Illwei · December 21, 2023

Quote

Edit: I appreciate that me and Coffee pretty much keep ninja'ing each other saying roughly the same thing.

Found this- his third post on p31, was my linking between him and coffee. for my reference. Note that i don't see it.

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Do you have a reference for the JNV not in E!meta bit? Because I really recall just you saying JNV is off from E!JNV but also that you believe they tick classic Elim boxes.

Really just this i suppose, perhaps I'm inflating it-

Quote

I was really out of it that game, so I don't really remember. They generally are more active when evil but rl's gonna rl.

TKN's only post on p35.

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If TKN's a hit, you claim god status? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ To be clear, not advocating locking on TKN now. Would like to hear from TKN and Neil, and rereading Neil if you have the time is worth it. My thoughts largely as follows:

I can't claim that, I called him likely village out of him/coffee before. ...in my defense coffee turned out to be sk but who could anticipate that. Could confbias into him calling out the connection between them is more e indicative because pocketing but that's irrelevant now because coffee's dead.

Currently on a reread of neil but probably going to sleep soon. Maybe. Went to sleep yesterday at like 2am but i need to get back to my old lady sleep schedule for work.

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

-I...agree E!Neil is a possibility, but even then, two things in Neil's favour IMO - first, his behaviour this cycle. IMO when there's a rift between two possible Villagers, you always have two options - you can make it worse, or you can try to stop them and keep Village rolling forward. I agree Neil theoretically E!leans you but the fact he was trying to de-escalate is worth something in my view. Village-on-Village conflict is always a gift to the Elims. In contrast, TKN doubles down by joining my vote on you. I'd argue that given there was always an open possibility of V!Illwei, Neil's behaviour is more pro-Village here.

I think my only counter to that is personally when I'm an elim i find doing things like that to be easy content to put out without content actually being put out. in his defense- this case is e/lo so more incentive to let things be, especially when my push was theoretically going to be on him, so why tell someone to try to hear me out.

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

-Unsure what Coffee's read is worth but if Coffee was pushing Neil last cycle, she clearly didn't believe E!Neil.

that's something i noted as well

--

Cmon TKN i saw you reading thread and now you just dip? smh

14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

if he's setting us on two of our teammates

i cc brandon time to jump on kas guys lets go lets go lets go /s

Kasimir · December 21, 2023

5 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Really just this i suppose, perhaps I'm inflating it-

Fair. I think I saw and dismissed it mentally because I kind of agreed and after Szeth's LG and Archer's QF, the fact of JNV's E!meta became known. I guess on retrospect you can say this is a non-committal statement on his part at least.

7 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

I think my only counter to that is personally when I'm an elim i find doing things like that to be easy content to put out without content actually being put out. in his defense- this case is e/lo so more incentive to let things be, especially when my push was theoretically going to be on him, so why tell someone to try to hear me out.

Opposite here tbh. You are his ML of choice based on his credences going into this cycle, so why de-escalate? Sense of fairness maybe, but eh. Opposite meaning than as an Elim I definitely don't do these things because I like the Village to carry on with unforced errors which is why I sat there quietly when they flashwagoned their Seeker trying to save their Coinshot when both claimed thirty minutes to rollover ~~Literally just CW anyone else guys why is this so hard smh~~

I admit part of it is a cynical theory I have in my head that - look. Neither of us are particularly charitable to each other (I'm saying this as a statement of player history here) and without a buffer player, we always, always clash in a game eventually even if we have a few quiet ones and everything was pointing to this going down this cycle. Sure there are multiple other reasons to kill Araris but if you want to maximise a Village split in lylo, one really easy way to do it is to kill the one potential buffer player and leave you and me alive and just watch us go at each other.

11 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Currently on a reread of neil but probably going to sleep soon. Maybe. Went to sleep yesterday at like 2am but i need to get back to my old lady sleep schedule for work.

Sleep is important

6 minutes ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

i cc brandon time to jump on kas guys lets go lets go lets go /s

Hey but if you exe me, Mat can name the next cycle/aftermath the Sanderlynch (Yes I know we don't use that word but c'mon you can't get that pun with Sanderlim or Sanderexe.)

The Unknown Medallion · December 21, 2023

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

But I don't see what the actual gamestate has to do with feeling good or feeling bad. Concrete states of affairs in the world don't care about how I feel about them. It'd be convenient with my annoyance with Illwei if she were Elim but it doesn't make that true. I'm concerned/not sure why you are using that proxy as your indicator for truthlikeness at lylo. I'm concerned with getting that Elim here, not getting someone I feel good about getting.

I've seen as many MLs at lylo which happened because Village kneejerk voted the main suspect and didn't take time to rethink. Case in point, Archer MLing Az with everyone else, Drake and I MLing xino over Archer, and Archer MLing Maili over me.

Ultimately, at the end of the day, all we can do is our best, and despite many Villages making mistakes at lylo, I'd like to think the dead will condemn us more for not trying than for trying our best and getting it wrong.

Which is?

1. I don't buy TKN's arguments about Illwei's entry speed. TKN was fifth voter on JNV and it's easily possible the Village would've had cold feet as it was a stable 5 train. Not this wasn't a wrong assessment as Aman and I did hop off. Could Illwei have swung it? Maybe, maybe not. Thread consensus felt very locked - people were tired of rethinking and it's hard to see even an aggressive entrance do more than tie her very tightly to JNV with potentially little reward.

I'd also point out that there's a fundamental problem here: Coffee flipped SK, Araris and Aeo flipped Village. The last two I expected, but this means that when you relook at the C3 trains, you're forced to accept one of three pretty uncomfortable conclusions:

A. Illwei simply showed up, made some half-hearted posts, and dropped a post saying she felt JNV was Village without deflecting the trains to mimic her V!meta.
B. You parked a vote on AlphaWei, never tried to find another train, and then had a sus vibes late post telling everyone AlphaWei was probably red but also unvoting AlphaWei even as you tried to redirect traffic to a dead train.
C. TKN bussed JNV somewhat after Rollovet (the halfway mark) and never looked back.

I feel they're all uncomfortable because they offer some level of absurdity:

A. Illwei is generally anti-bussing. Or rather, it takes more to make her reach bus point than most.
B. This is probably the most half-hearted way of saving a player possible. That being said, Drake just scammed me by doing a half-hearted tercer save so what do I know.
C. It's difficult to see this make sense with TKN's play but you can argue parsimony here.

2. Negative arguments because 90% of the pro-Illwei arguments are "E!Illwei would do X instead of Y," e.g. "E!Illwei wouldn't just casually leave JNV to hang like that" and "E!Illwei would've been more proactive C4." At lylo, I simply don't trust negative arguments any longer (hence my current lack of willingness to continue that provisional V!read of Illwei) because of the indicators that the fact we haven't found the last Elim suggest (wrt the absurdities) that something somewhere, some assumption has gone wrong - which also suggests the behavioural models are wrong and calls into question the negative arguments.

3. Non-provisional, because - and this applies to Illwei too - I'm willing to file active good vibes posters away and V!lean them in early game. It is no longer possible to do so at lylo without a stronger reason to, hence my talking about provisional and non-provisional reasons. The issue and the reason why I don't feel provisional arguments work anymore at this stage is pretty much why despite Illwei's assertion she's so Village she should be cased, I don't buy it - I feel it's the opposite problem right here. Yes, TKN could be bussing, but that vote on JNV is at least One Villagery thing he's done, and despite re-reading, I don't have as much to go on as both of you without again, negative arguments.

I don't think there was that much appetite. I've come off relooking the votes last night and Ash was the main competitor. Maybe Araris at some point and TKN did in fact say he'd want either JNV or Araris dead, but keep in mind the main votes were: you on Alphawei, and Coffee on Araris, who retracted after challenge.

Formally, this is the votecount when TKN goes on:

He shifted from saying he'd support an Aeo train to either Araris or JNV, but voted JNV as Araris was unlikely to be exed, which I think is reasonable. He earlier commented that he felt an Aeo exe was also unlikely given demonstrated unwillingness to actually commit to exeing her. Possible his view might've been different if Aman had stayed on Aeo.

Is it? I'm sorry Neil, but I kind of think it's BM to respond to suspicion on you with "I am so obviously Village that this should not be questioned and you're tilted if you sus me, go sleep because you're delusional." You can argue it's a legit Elim tactic, sure, but even so. If you're not interested in convincing me otherwise, or even assuming a basic good faith approach to this game, I don't think I should be expected to be begging you to convince me otherwise, or to also commit to a good faith approach on you. Respect goes both ways. [Edited to add: I'm aware aggressive approaches like this are more common at MU, and it's yet another reason MU and I don't get along. I'll candidly say a decent slice of MU players are actively BM to me.]

Edited to add 2: I'd add there's another layer here, which is the whole 'ah but you can't sus me without a Correct Case!' Yeah sorry, I find preoccupation with that more Elim than anything - see Biplet in LG83, or Mat in a bunch of games.

Also, on you - other stuff, e.g. I felt the AlphaWei vote was so parked it's questionable what you got out of it, TKN has a weird post where he susses you because he says he tried the same thing and got more out of it than you (weird because if you ever flipped Village then yeah it feels like TKN being self-congratulatory which feels off) but given he's also sussing you, feels like a wash. In general, things like - as Aman caught - you floating an under-the-radar team but then calling for attention on TKN and Wiz rather than Ash and JNV, suggesting you'd look at Ash but not doing so, asking Aeo about JNV (but yourself never mentioning them since or committing to a view on them.)

If you want me to take your C1 at face value btw, it reads like you were trying to splinter-train off in case Ash got voted, and appealing to Raven and Aman does mean you called an Ash voter off Ash.

Why so?

Illwei came in surprisingly non-committal despite almost exclusively sussing Neil. She didn't vote him out of the gate (instead saying "I will probably vote Neil" which she never actually did). Instead she hung around, not really placing any suspicion on me, then you make two or three post with a section saying that you're reconsidering on me and start casing me slightly, then BOOM, Illwei votes, not for who she's been sussing for a bit now that you've been pretty hesitant to vote, she votes for me, the one who she's actually ascribed a slight v!read to, but that you just so happen to be considering.

Doesn't that ring a little bit off to you?

Referencing a later comment I think you make, I still kind of am the low hanging fruit for Illwei, though not as much as normal. By voting me, she gains the potential support of both you and Neil, whereas if she had voting Neil, I would have been the only one on her side, and a pretty non-committal person to have there.

1 hour ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

I want to clarify that I really don't, I thought I said it before but you might have missed it- Neil has hosted and spec'd a few turbos I've played but I can't recall anything from the like, one turbo i've played with him. So I really don't know better on Neil than anyone else here.

Joining a game at the end of a cycle, The next cycle it's a cc battle and it's inside that, and then it's lylo gives me very little interactions to work off of and all i can do is reread old cycles over and over again where the Elims were near inactive.

Without TKN's thought process and only his conclusions posted, his reasoning for why Ash is an Elim with JNV is like, not there. and while I don't know why TKN would choose to double bus there, Ash seems to have come from nowhere in terms of fitting on a team with JNV. Meanwhile, he was being floated around as another option for the day (though i suppose not being voted yet?) I may have my timeline wrong.

I don't really understand what you mean here, but personally I was saying his fixation on killing Neil while calling neil the SK was most likely an Elim trying to find something to push without pushing his teammates.

I really would like TKN to weigh in here eventually

@Ookla the Bald I would also like to know why you came in voting (not gonna say pushing) Neil when previously you had thought he was the SK candidate? How do you see him fitting in to the team? (fyi "i don't anymore" isn't really a valid answer to this since you obviously did at some time, even though your initial comment with the vote was about how you think I don't enter like I do as an Elim)

It pretty much came down to process of elimination. My raw notes based on pure vote analysis with light credences posited JNV, Illwei/Ash, Araris/Aeoryi. I had selected Araris/Aeoryi because I felt there needed to be a more active player on the team, but I've since reconsidered to realize that Mat might have thought JNV and Ash together had medium enough levels of activity that the experience would level them out. That was also a large part of my reasoning for Neil later, though, like I said many times, he fit both E and N profiles well enough. I mostly thought he was an SK, but figured he fit the elim profile well enough.

After how this cycle has progressed, I've been mostly convinced by Neil's utter lack of WiM (pretty sure that's a correct use of that), and by your first hedgy then opportunitistic voting.

@Kasimir, personally, I'm struggling to see why you've switched onto sussing me. Do you really think I, the one who stunned the village by not bussing or saving my teammate, bussed JNV that late into the game while also implicating my only other teammate who very well could have gotten by if I had done the right work to hide them?

Do you think e!me puts anywhere near as much effort into this as I have? You can look at my past e!games, I struggle to fake analysis when E, particularly past c3, hence why it's used as a tell.

Do you think JNV and Ash are determining the kills when my kill meta hasn't been prevalent at all in my last three to four e!games? Do you think you live this long in an e!me world? I let other players determine some or even most shots, but your analysis doesn't survive if I can at all help it.

You love to revise, so revise. Look at my e!games, reread the Shard game. E!me is lazily confident, v!me is maladroitly accurate. Think about which one I've been this game.

Edit:

1 hour ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Found this- his third post on p31, was my linking between him and coffee. for my reference. Note that i don't see it.

Really just this i suppose, perhaps I'm inflating it-

TKN's only post on p35.

I can't claim that, I called him likely village out of him/coffee before. ...in my defense coffee turned out to be sk but who could anticipate that. Could confbias into him calling out the connection between them is more e indicative because pocketing but that's irrelevant now because coffee's dead.

Currently on a reread of neil but probably going to sleep soon. Maybe. Went to sleep yesterday at like 2am but i need to get back to my old lady sleep schedule for work.

I think my only counter to that is personally when I'm an elim i find doing things like that to be easy content to put out without content actually being put out. in his defense- this case is e/lo so more incentive to let things be, especially when my push was theoretically going to be on him, so why tell someone to try to hear me out.

that's something i noted as well

--

Cmon TKN i saw you reading thread and now you just dip? smh

i cc brandon time to jump on kas guys lets go lets go lets go /s

I'm blue texting this now for goodness sake:

Today was extremely busy, with some of my schedule being shuffled around in the worst way. I've been operating on far to little sleep and access to my phone was limited.

I'll be sleeping until a few hours until rollover probably, but I'll try to respond to any @s when I wake up.

Edit 2:

In reference to my comment on JNV’s meta, I've kinda blocked out that game a bit. I wasn't happy with how I played and kinda remember it as a fever dream, so I couldn't say all too much either way, but I did and do remember JNV mentioning that in our doc that game.

Kasimir · December 21, 2023

4 hours ago, Ookla the Bald said:

You love to revise, so revise. Look at my e!games, reread the Shard game. E!me is lazily confident, v!me is maladroitly accurate. Think about which one I've been this game.

I re-read your E games when re-introducing you into the suspect pool, so it's interesting you're assuming here I didn't when revising on you - you're off your V and E meta it's hard enough to tell, but I redid LG97 and the slog that was QF64 in order to read your E games, so yes, I'm coming from the position it's within parameters, and then did a side of LG89 (E!JNV, V!you) and QF66 (E!JNV, V!you) to doublecheck.

I think 'lazy' is the correct word here, in that in QF64, you generally stayed in the background and didn't offer much. When you did, you offered just enough to get suspicion off you or to blend in. You spent a significant amount of time discussing mech to avoid having to talk about suspicions, and did that even into the final cycle of the game. I think V!you tends to offer more spontaneous observations: having re-read all the cycles, I've seen none occur between C1 to C4. Most of your posts were mech-related, or responses to Archer, or comments, some of which were definitely my fault, but even so. You had exactly one post of analysis in which you said you wanted a JNV and then an Araris flip, and then even after JNV flipped, settled for an Araris flip with a lazy one-liner in Cycle Four that your position hadn't changed, even when challenged on it.

4 hours ago, Ookla the Bald said:

bussed JNV that late into the game while also implicating my only other teammate who very well could have gotten by if I had done the right work to hide them?

Could you? Aman and I were already on Ash and calling for an Ash shot out of frustration and the fact Ash was hiding. You weren't the determining factor IMO - it was Aman's insistence on resolving Ash. Do you genuinely believe you could hide Ash beyond a call for the SK to help us resolve Ash, given just general determination to stop waiting on Ash to re-appear? Keep in mind Aman had been voting Ash for three cycles by that point, occasionally stopped by Aeo.

And does E!you have any other option at that point? It's a four vote train on JNV and it wasn't going anywhere. JNV was bussed, whether passively or actively. This is a fact, because the game hasn't ended with Coffee's flip.

4 hours ago, Ookla the Bald said:

Do you think e!me puts anywhere near as much effort into this as I have? You can look at my past e!games, I struggle to fake analysis when E, particularly past c3, hence why it's used as a tell.

To be honest, I don't see effort in your V games either. What I do see is showing up on occasion to make an insightful comment. This I haven't picked up either, so telling me I should clear you on effort is a wash.

Edited to add: To spell it out: you did one round of vote analysis on E! and V!JNV and have been crutching on that ever since for who to vote on (Araris), which in my view, is most definitely not effort. It may be effort for you, but it also demonstrates a certain passive contentment with where your suspicions fall and reluctance to rethink.

4 hours ago, Ookla the Bald said:

Do you think JNV and Ash are determining the kills when my kill meta hasn't been prevalent at all in my last three to four e!games? Do you think you live this long in an e!me world? I let other players determine some or even most shots, but your analysis doesn't survive if I can at all help it.

Aren't you begging the question here? The very fact your kill MO hasn't been prevalent already suggests they are determining the kills, simpliciter. In LG97, you absolutely let JNV call the kills. And I'd point out that you trying to shoot me was going to be rough last cycle given we also asked me to self-protect. I have my own theories about why I'm still alive, and some of them include the fact I was backing V!you, as well as strong suspicions about interactions within the Elim doc I don't want to spell out.

Edited to add:

4 hours ago, Ookla the Bald said:

Doesn't that ring a little bit off to you?

Again, I return you to:

A. Illwei chose to passively bus JNV and allow the Ash shot, making a lukewarm JNV post while JNV died.
B. Neil chose to make the world's worst CW ever for attention or suspicion, trying to redirect votes onto Illwei when zero people had been interested previously.
C. You bussed JNV.

If you are arguing that you could have swung the JNV issue or shielded Ash, then isn't this all the more true of Illwei? If you assume as much of your skills, isn't this also true of A? So why is your push back onto Illwei here, especially given you came in wanting to push Neil?

I think it's just as fair a reconstruction of events that it's relevant you're pushing Illwei here - the player I had wanted to push, and the player Neil has been frontlining as who he'd like to push, guaranteeing at least a tie.

Edited to add 2:

@neil the beguiled - You came in liking TKN's first few posts. Later, you speculated TKN was either an Elim or an SK. How do you feel about him now?

Edited to add 3:

@Ookla the Bald - Maybe let's do it this way. Can you link me to two Village games which you believe demonstrate the amount of effort you put in when Village?

Edited December 21, 2023 by Kasimir

Kasimir · December 21, 2023

You know what.

Neil yes I know splitting the vote, w/e, y'all are adults and can deal with it. Re-read LG91 and kind of not sure about E!TKN now.

Edited to add:

E!JNV really likes mentioning TKN and I'm not sure if Aeo is their replacement goldfish or something.

Quote

The Unknown Novels bit does seem kinda hm but not really evil hm just normal hm claiming roleless is just bad for keeping important roles alive Archer not explaining vote is grrrrr but not really hmm Steeldancer finding the rules is just eh not really either way I think Matrim went a little tough on Stick for what is just factually true but understandable and thats like it I think ok night night have fun

Edited to add 2:

Lowkey considering returning to TKN but you know what, Neil can join the hotseat too since we gotta get this right or pray that Araris's luck once again carries his team, if he didn't burn it all in that LG91 finale. Or I guess, pray that I actually make one save for my whole life in this game so I can actually post the goalkeeper celebration gif I have

...Yeah let's just get it right.

Edited to add 3:

@Ookla the Bald - If you're Village, which I'm still re-reading on, I don't disagree about the potential opportunism here but I feel that Neil sort of just sitting it out could arguably also be an Elim just trying not to make too many commitments and sitting back while we push each other, which is a niche I can see happening as well.

Because if you think about it that way, then two things Neil did IMO can't be written off. A. D1 attempt to call/beg for Ravenclaw takers, pulling Aman off the Ash train (you were present in the vicinity when JNV and Ash were endangered and never voted that Day), and B. the weird af Illwei post from C3 which - yes I get what he means by BM and so on but it just feels weird. Intuitively if I think a slot is red, I feel I'd be a lot stronger about it???

Quote

illwei [Unvoted illwei. Yeah, BM but if you think the slot is red, why not leave it there? Illwei was not endangered anyway.]

science results: yeah i have no clue. full transparency ig, i wanted to put a vote down there to see how the greater thread would interact with it- the fact that it wasnt piled on at all generally indicates a red slot- ie to say if it was green the elims would take bait of it. [Again, if I was certain a slot is red, I feel I'd be more emphatic about it, especially if I wasn't sure I'd live to the next cycle? Does Neil just not fear death here?] issue is i was not expecting a sub in at all-

and from that it feels as if illwei's been almost threadspewed town? question; how much would you stake that this isnt e!illwei?? can anybody concretely say that they think they are the same alignment as her? [See because this is definitely a very strong push for E!Illwei, and yet...he's not voting her - again, he's said BM - but it's just contextually weird as I'd expect this to minimally be: 'I think it's BM to vote Illwei today but I need you all to consider wagoning her tomorrow.' Or just anything in the vicinity of that, e.g. Cash's 'Wagon Wiz in my honour!' - He's challenging Illwei read basis but there's no call to action here, which feels ??? You can argue I am not being charitable to Neil wrt being certain a slot is red, but look at how strongly this paragraph is phrased.]

illwei; question, you criticised me for "blindly" following the same people you were shading, can i have you forward an opinion on the current wagons then? (ash,jnv). and also what you think of araris?

side note, there was something that pinged me about aman earlier as specifically sk aligned in his talking about aeoryi which is making me want to eat my teeth. @Amanuensis question; why do you think aeoyi making worlds that include you as an elim is specifically pingy? You state there that a villager needs to put in genuine work, but youre so caught up in yourself that you dont see that that post from aeoryi is a lot of genuine work? Aeoryi feels like a free villager this game and the suspicion ramping up there is worrying fmpov because it feels like shes being designated as a misvote. Do you think that v!aeoryi should not be making worlds with you in it? Why? What do you make of her not including Kas then. Do you object to that?

I'm down to the fact that if I accept your arguments you could've done something, and I accept Illwei's arguments she could've done something, then isn't this basically the something here? Neil trying to sort of push and not push Illwei at the same time?

Edited to add X:

@Ookla the Bald

Quote

On 12/14/2023 at 5:09 AM, Ookla the Destined said:

Just under two hours remaining!

Archer/Paradigm (2): Araris Valerian/Pookla, Ravenclawjedi42/Participle

Ashbringer (2): Amanuensis, The Wandering Wizard/Raveness

JNV (1): Kasimir

Aeoryi/Resolute (3): Cash67/Rich, Aeoryi/Resolute, Archer/Paradigm

this wagon formation always kills a something something. i dont rlly like any of these wagons ;_;

I guess I just feel like - shouldn't you just CW onto Ash here instead of trying to pull people to Ravenclaw? Listen, Archer was a V!lean for Neil, and I think strong enough he defended Archer against a number of people. Aeo was also a V!lean for Neil at points IIRC. He wanted to add you as well. If so, that's two of Neil's V!reads on trains. Isn't the reaction here at some point, if no appetite for Ravenclaw, just CWing on the inactive? [Edited to add: Because to be clear, unless you V!read Ash, an Ash flip is absolutely better than an Archer or Aeo flip, given Neil's credences. Even if you think Ravenclaw is more likely E, aren't you semi-committed to the view that if this isn't realistic, then you believe you are going to be allowing either of two green flips through? Does this really make sense as an attitude from a Villager? I feel like that's not really showing up in Neil's advocacy here - he keeps talking about wagons and wagonomics rather than the fact two of his V!reads are endangered. Because yeah, to be blunt, I'd've shat a brick if I'd been on at rollover and thought y'all were gonna murder Archer yet again, which was why I was so damned tilted at Wiz C2 because I felt Archer was readable.]

I'm reminded here of what happened when I CWed onto you in Mat's Threnody QF - like yes, I'm sorry, but I had a null/no read of you as compared to a robust Village read of Archer and while I was down with voting Turtle, we didn't have the numbers to CW onto Turtle to save Archer. I'm questioning not liking the wagons and being laid back about two of your V!reads going into the tie, especially with little Ravenclaw appetite. The fact Ashbringer and JNV were choices here and Neil ignored them, IMO, is telling. @Ooklil the Wei

And I guess otherwise we're back to the problem, right? Which is that if we accept the Aman kill was motivated by JNV and Ash being on death row, then the Elims swapped kill MO. Does an Elim team entirely composed of quiet players, completely lacking in thread control (remember AlphaWei only subbed in C3) really kill in the same numbers they need to hide? (Aman raised this point when he was doing his pyramid scheme too.)

I have looked over your game records courtesy of the spreadsheet and while I wanna see isn't there or I'd feel more confident, you are correct you almost never bus, but I also know Illwei here hates bussing when she could do something about it. And there's what IMO Araris mentioned about the dangers of bussing here in terms of exposing you to a SK kill downstream because you then look Villagery. So if I rule you out and Illwei out, aren't I back to Neil? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited to add X+Y:

I guess what I'm saying is, I'm back at Neil again. Can't promise it's my final answer but will be up at rollover. There's a Lion comparison to be made for TKN but IMO it doesn't fully match - kind of just feels off here, and since Lion was E, I'm more willing to see this coming e.g. from LG93!V!TKN. But not sure.

Again, KIV this is the train Neil cited, but was probably responding to something in the vicinity of:

Quote

Archer/Paradigm (2): Araris Valerian/Pookla, Ravenclawjedi42/Participle

Ashbringer (2): Amanuensis, The Wandering Wizard/Raveness

JNV (1): Kasimir

Aeoryi/Resolute (3): Cash67/Rich, Aeoryi/Resolute, Archer/Paradigm

But running from my notes, by/close to the time Neil intervened, it was really like this:

Quote

Archer/Paradigm (2): Araris Valerian/Pookla, Ravenclawjedi42/Participle

Ashbringer (2): Amanuensis, The Wandering Wizard/Raveness

JNV (1): Kasimir

Aeoryi/Resolute (2): Cash67/Rich, Aeoryi/Resolute

The Wandering Wizard/Raveness (1): Archer/Paradigm

In which he still manages to avoid the two E trains (Ash, JNV), also avoid Wiz, be cool with Archer and Aeo endangerment, and side-train onto Ravenclaw. His concern is ties, not the fact his V!reads are in contention here: again, I don't feel that's a natural or sincere reaction to endangerment of your V reads in the exe.

Quote

if i could entice either of you to change or make a vote to prevent a tied vote for #wagonomics i think that'd be more productive than a rng selection tbh. ugh im kinda annoyed at being here so late to the bell but ive been kinda busy waugh

EDIT:

ill be back in like 10 but rng ties make me anxious ;_;

A bonus is that one of the two players he solicits here is an Ash voter.

He's okay parking his vote on Araris when we had the C2 Araris/Cash tie, and in fact, his vote never changed at all, suggesting extraordinarily high contentment in a cycle everyone was switching around like Master Yoda doing an Ataru dance - this one case is the one he objects to and wants to CW Ravenclaw for. Why? What's different here?

Quote

Araris Valerian/Pookla (4): neil the beguiled, Coffeecat, Aeoryi/Resolute, Kasimir

Cash67/Rich (4): Devotary of Spontaneity, Araris Valerian/Pookla, The Wandering Wizard/Raveness, Amanuensis

The Wandering Wizard/Raveness (1): Cash67/Rich

Suggestion: no red trains in contention/in flux, especially when Neil was seeing a potential Ash in the three-way tie.

I am going to get some sleep due to timezones and expect to be back three to four hours before rollover. If I'm not because of RL reasons, then sorry, this is my final answer, but I will try to be back.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Kasimir

Illwei · December 21, 2023

11 hours ago, Ookla the Bald said:

After how this cycle has progressed, I've been mostly convinced by Neil's utter lack of WiM (pretty sure that's a correct use of that), and by your first hedgy then opportunitistic voting.

So with this, who are you saying is the elim here? Because it can't be the both of us.

@neil the beguiled care to join the fun?

EDIT:

Oh also for anyone who reads this

We were invited to play a discord mafia game, some sites are sending reps, its a kinda tournament- if anyone wants to rep us in it or wants more info on it lmk

EDIT 2:

One thing that made me want to kill neil was my vague NKA that I didn't post. The kills were awkward starting off obviously, targeting vaguely towny low posters that were being written offby really only the Elims as far as I could tell- not familiar with the new player's meta as I've been gone. Felt more like someone who wasn't familiar with the site meta making the kills.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Ooklil the Wei

neil the beguiled · December 21, 2023

HI sorry- im honstly rlly busy between a few things; my lack of avaliability is mostly just frustrating to me. i saw a few things ik i need to comment on but uhh lemme see if i can pull up gamelinks then;

if ill be fbrutally honest the most time ive had to put into this game was early c1 and it kinda shows xD

this is my mostrecent ;towngame, and this is my most recent wolfgame

uhh otherwise ;_;. i think my main thoughts here is that it reads to me like illwei is trying to moreso open up the pool to tkn which im emphasising with for lack of time ;_;. i dunno, i really thought id be gone by now but like. meh. fwiw im not afraid of bussing though i do prefer powerwolfing to that- though id certainly say i dont view my wolfgame as any good so if bussing did occur id rather *be* bussed? esp if jnv is a crafty enough wolf as he claims to be but eh thats my 2cs.

unrealted but the discord maf/tos thing should be fun; im gonna be the sub rep for FR so if yall join i might get 2 see yall there o/

uhh and in regards to cash/arasis i actually did mention the tie then- but i still thoiught that cash was the equivelant of a shrugyeet and didnt opt to unvote there bc arasis was more suspect to me- unlike archer/aeoryi trains that i wasnt actually a part of? but also that situation is different as well because fmpov im going into the eod with 2 v reads as top wagons, and someone i consider a shrugyeet at the time. i thought thered be enough people there to get a ravenclaw yeet instead bc i thought raven had better chances as scum. its kinda that shrimple???

weh

Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

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